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Sri Lanka foreign currency debt obligations due between now and 2026 amount to about US$ 29bn

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External liquidity pressures have eased somewhat in recent months

Planned IMF SDR allocation would also add US$780 million to reserves

Authorities have yet to specify foreign-currency debt-servicing plans for the medium term

Sri Lanka’s ‘CCC’ rating reflects a challenging foreign-currency sovereign external debt repayment burden over the medium term, low foreign-exchange reserves and high and rising government debt that give rise to sustainability risks, Fitch Ratings said on Monday.

External liquidity pressures have eased somewhat in recent months following bilateral loan disbursements, and our expectation of a forthcoming IMF special drawing rights (SDR) allocation. Nevertheless, Sri Lanka’s medium-term debt service challenges are substantial and pose risks to the sovereign’s debt repayment capacity, in Fitch’s view. A total of about USD 29 billion in foreign-currency debt obligations are due between now and 2026, against foreign-exchange reserves of USD4.5 billion as of end-April 2021, Fitch said.

The report further said: The authorities have recently secured project financing through various multilateral and bilateral channels, including the Asian Development Bank (AAA/Stable), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AAA/Stable), China Development Bank (A+/Stable) and The Export-Import Bank of Korea (AA-/Stable), as well as swap facilities under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) currency framework and the People’s Bank of China, equivalent to USD400 million and USD1.5 billion, respectively. The planned IMF SDR allocation would also add USD780 million to reserves. These resources should enable Sri Lanka to meet its remaining debt maturities through the rest of this year, including a USD1 billion International Sovereign Bond maturing in July. However, the authorities have yet to specify their plans for meeting the country’s foreign-currency debt-servicing needs for 2022 and the medium term. They have consistently indicated that they do not plan to seek programme financing from the IMF.

We project foreign-exchange reserves to remain at about USD 4.5 billion by end-2021 before declining to USD3.9 billion by end-2022. Under our baseline, the current account deficit is likely to widen to 2.8% in 2021 and narrow to 2.1% of GDP in 2022. Our forecasts assume remittances will remain resilient in 2021-2022 and tourism is likely to recover only from 2022.

Sri Lanka’s economy contracted by 3.6% in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. We project growth of 3.8% in 2021, down from an earlier forecast of 4.9%, in light of a recent surge in virus cases. We expect the economy to grow by 3.9% in 2022. There remains a high degree of uncertainty associated with our forecasts in light of the evolution of new Covid-19 cases in the country. The authorities plan to inoculate 60% of the population by end-2021, but this target could be hampered by vaccine supply shortages.

Travel and tourism, an important driver of the economy, have been hit hard and the outlook for recovery remains uncertain, particularly given the recent surge in virus cases. The direct contribution of tourism to pre-pandemic GDP was about 4%, but the indirect contribution was much higher. Tourist arrivals in the first five months of 2021 were 97% lower than the same period last year.

The general government deficit widened to 11.1% of GDP in 2020, from 9.6% in 2019, as the economic contraction led to a sharp fall in fiscal revenue. We expect the deficit to remain elevated in 2021 and 2022 at 11.1% and 10.4%, respectively. Our deficit projections are wider than those presented by the government under its growth-oriented strategy of 9.4% and 7.5%, respectively. Under our forecasts, the revenue-to-GDP ratio in 2021 would rise to 10.9% in 2021 and 11.1% in 2022, compared with the authorities’ projections of 11.9% and 13.0%, respectively.

The government’s fiscal consolidation strategy is based on a planned acceleration in GDP growth, underpinned by tax cuts, as opposed to direct revenue-raising or expenditure measures, albeit supported by planned improvements in tax administration. The interest-to-revenue ratio remains high, at around 71% as of 2020, well above the ‘CCC’ median of 13%. The government expects to achieve primary surpluses from 2023, supported by annual GDP growth of 6%, which appear optimistic in our view as we anticipate growth that is closer to 4%, still above the pace in the immediate pre-pandemic period.

General government debt reached 101% of GDP by end-2020, broadly in line with our forecast at our last review in November. Our baseline forecasts suggest this ratio will rise further to 108% by 2022. Fitch does not think the government will meet its 2025 targets of reducing government debt to 70% of GDP and narrowing the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP.



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Code of Ethics for capital market influencers in the pipeline

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Tushara Jayaratne: ‘Priority for public protection

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of Sri Lanka is planning to introduce a Code of Ethics or a set of guidelines for the activities of capital market influencers to protect the public from ongoing scams involving the swindling money from potential investors in the share market.

“The market regulator has already identified Blue Ocean Securities Limited and Gladius South Asia as involved in such scams, which are being investigated by the relevant authorities, said Deputy Director General of the SEC Tushara Jayaratne.

The Deputy Director General also said that Gladius was using their their logo in a fraudulent manner to promote their business as well.

He said Blue Ocean has been involved in asking investors to start trading through an app named BOMate Nd. ‘Through this app, you can’t trade shares. But the money transaction goes through this app and the SEC system does not see these transactions, Jayaratne explained.

“The money is going somewhere else, Jayaratne told journalists at a media briefing yesterday held at the SEC auditorium, WTC building, Colombo.

Jayaratne said the SEC has already made complaints to both the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) of the police and the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) of the Central Bank.

The Deputy Director General said the second company, Gladius South Asia, has been involved in asking investors not to invest their money in the local stock market, but to do so in the markets in foreign countries.

He also said that the SEC has adopted 12 key capital market development projects to increase the number of capital market investors.

“The Introduction of a Code of Ethics and guidelines for registered investment advisers will help to develop the market in an efficient and effective way, he said.

Jayaratne, however, said that the Sri Lankan share market is not full of scams and that people can have confidence in the market.

“Our market is somewhat free and fair. From the perspective of investors, you also have a responsibility to be careful when investing in the market, he added.

By Hiran H Senewiratne

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Norway supports flood-affected communities in Sri Lanka

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Åsmund Aukrust

Norway is providing more than USD 2.4 million to assist those affected by severe flooding in Sri Lanka.

“Norway is contributing emergency assistance to people who have lost both their homes and livelihoods in Sri Lanka. A rapid response is crucial to ensure that those affected have shelter, food, healthcare and support to rebuild their communities,” said Norway’s Minister of International Development, Åsmund Aukrust.

The United Nations estimates that nearly 11 million people have been impacted by catastrophic floods and landslides across large parts of South and Southeast Asia. Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia have experienced record rainfall since 17 November. In total, approximately 1,600 people have lost their lives, and 1.2 million have been forced to leave their homes. Critical infrastructure such as houses and roads has been destroyed, and health risks are increasing due to waterborne diseases and poor sanitation.

“Norway is now contributing NOK 20 million (approx. USD 2 million) to the Red Cross Movement and the UN system in Sri Lanka. These organisations have presence in the country and the capacity to respond quickly based on local needs,” Aukrust said.

Sri Lanka is among the hardest-hit countries. On 28 November, Cyclone Ditwah struck the country, bringing heavy rain and strong winds. The cyclone triggered landslides and caused the most severe floodsing in recent history. The Sri Lankan authorities have led the search and rescue operations and allocated significant resources for immediate relief. “When disasters of this magnitude occur, it is vital that the international community and countries like Norway step up and support local actors in managing the crisis,” Aukrust said.

In addition, the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) has allocated USD 4.5 million for flood response in Sri Lanka. Around one in ten dollars in the fund comes from Norway.

Norway is also assisting flood-affected communities in Sri Lanka through an immediate response mechanism in the World Food Programme (WFP). The International Labour Organization (ILO) has re-allocated around USD 100,000 in a Norway-funded job generation project, to assist flood-affected participants. Furthermore, Norway has funded a UN expert to help coordinate ongoing relief efforts in the affected areas.

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Janashakthi Finance appoints Sithambaram Sri Ganendran as CEO

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Sithambaram Sri Ganendran, Chief Executive Officer, Janashakthi Finance PLC

Janashakthi Finance PLC, formerly known as Orient Finance PLC and a subsidiary of JXG (Janashakthi Group), announces the appointment of Sithambaram Sri Ganendran as the Chief Executive Officer.

Sri Ganendran, who has held the position of Chief Operating Officer since September 2024, stepped in as Acting Chief Executive Officer during the past four months.

He brings with him almost 27 years of extensive experience in banking. Throughout his extensive career, he has held senior management roles in multiple local and international banks, where he acquired in-depth knowledge in operations, branch banking (across retail and SME sectors), operational risk, business continuity management, business integration, process reengineering, operational excellence, sales governance and credit card operations. He holds a plethora of qualifications including an MBA from American City University. He is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA) in the United Kingdom, and an Associate Member of the Chartered Institute of Securities and Investments (CISI), and a member of the Association of Professional Bankers of Sri Lanka.

Rajendra Theagarajah, Chairman of Janashakthi Finance PLC, said, “We are delighted to welcome Sithambaram Sri Ganendran to this important leadership role at a pivotal moment in our journey. His wealth of experience, proven track record, and people-focused leadership style make him well suited to strengthen and guide Janashakthi Finance, ensuring efficient continuity in all ongoing operations.”

The appointment of Sri Ganendran as Chief Executive Officer, reinforces Janashakthi Finance’s deep commitment to seamless operations and growth. It also underscores its dedication to vision of delivering trusted financial solutions, while continuously exploring opportunities for innovation and expansion to serve its customers and communities more efficiently.

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