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Sri Lanka at the Crossroads: Rethinking Strategy in a Fractured World

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The escalating crises in the Middle East are yet another reminder, if one were needed, that the world is becoming more volatile, more polarised and less predictable. For a small, relatively open economy like Sri Lanka, the implications are immediate and profound. A US$10 increase in global oil prices can add hundreds of millions of dollars annually to Sri Lanka’s import bill. Remittance flows which amounted to about US$8 billion in 2023 are heavily exposed to the Gulf economies. Meanwhile, geopolitical alignments are growing increasingly complex. The question is no longer whether external shocks will occur, but how prepared we are to absorb them.

For decades, Sri Lanka, like many small nations benefited from a relatively stable, rules-based international order. Trade routes were secure, energy markets predictable and diplomatic alignments broadly consistent. That world is fading. Today, global trade growth has slowed compared to pre-Covid levels, protectionist measures are rising and strategic competition between major powers is reshaping supply chains. In its place is a more fragmented system shaped by competing power blocs, regional conflicts and economic nationalism. In such an environment, vulnerability is magnified for countries that lack strategic clarity.

Sri Lanka’s recent history underscores this exposure. The country has endured successive shocks: the 2019 Easter attacks, the COVID-19 pandemic (which saw tourism earnings collapse from over US$4.3 billion in 2018 to near zero in 2020), the 2022 sovereign debt default and recurring climate-related disasters costing an estimated 1–2% of GDP annually. Each episode has revealed structural weaknesses in the economy. Yet perhaps the most concerning is the continued reliance on two highly volatile pillars—remittances from foreign workers and imported fossil fuels.

Remittances, largely from the Middle East have long served as a financial lifeline accounting for roughly 8–10% of GDP and supporting millions of households. Around 85% of Sri Lankan migrant workers are employed in West Asia. This concentration creates systemic risk. A prolonged regional conflict, labour market contraction or policy shift in host countries could quickly erode inflows with direct consequences for domestic consumption, foreign exchange reserves and poverty levels.

At the same time, Sri Lanka remains heavily dependent on imported fuel with petroleum products historically accounting for around 20–25% of total imports. During the 2022 crisis, fuel shortages brought transport, power generation and industry to a standstill. Even today, fluctuations in global oil prices translate almost immediately into inflationary pressures, exchange rate stress and fiscal strain through energy subsidies and state-owned enterprise losses.

This dual vulnerability, external income dependence and energy insecurity, demands urgent and strategic reform.

Energy Independence as Economic Policy

At the centre of this transformation must be a decisive shift in energy policy. Sri Lanka cannot afford to remain tethered to imported hydrocarbons. Accelerating decarbonisation is not simply an environmental imperative; it is an economic and national security necessity.

Sri Lanka already generates roughly 50–60% of its electricity from renewable sources in favourable hydrological years primarily through large hydro. However, this share drops significantly during drought periods, exposing the system to costly thermal generation. Solar and wind together still contribute less than 15% of total generation despite the country’s strong natural potential, particularly in the Northern and Eastern provinces.

Electrification, powered by renewables should be prioritised across sectors. Rooftop solar capacity, currently estimated at over 700 MW, could be doubled within a few years through targeted incentives, streamlined approvals and improved net-metering frameworks. Likewise, transport electrification remains nascent; electric vehicles account for only a small fraction of the fleet, constrained by high upfront costs and limited charging infrastructure.

However, renewables alone are not sufficient. The intermittency challenge must be addressed through storage solutions. Here, Sri Lanka’s natural topography offers a strategic advantage. Pumped hydro storage schemes such as those proposed in central highland regions could provide hundreds of megawatts of storage capacity and effectively acting as large-scale batteries for the grid. International experience shows that while capital-intensive, such systems deliver long-term cost savings and grid stability.

There is a strong case for prioritising pumped hydro storage over large-scale imported battery systems. While lithium-ion batteries may play a role in supporting distributed solar and short-duration storage, they are expensive, largely imported, and typically have a lifespan of only 15–20 years before major replacement is required. A national-scale battery programme could require hundreds of millions of dollars in imports, increasing pressure on foreign exchange reserves and creating future disposal and recycling challenges.

By contrast, pumped hydro storage uses Sri Lanka’s own terrain, reservoirs, engineering capability, and construction sector. Such schemes can operate for 100 years or more, with relatively low operating costs once built. They provide longer-duration storage, greater grid stability, and far higher local economic input through domestic labour, materials, and expertise. In effect, pumped hydro is not only a cleaner and more sustainable long-term energy solution—it is also a far more strategic investment for a country seeking to reduce dependence on imports and strengthen economic resilience.

Investing in energy resilience is, therefore, not a cost: it is a hedge against future crises.

Reimagining Economic Drivers

Beyond energy, Sri Lanka must rethink its broader economic model. Tourism, agriculture, education and logistics each offer pathways for resilience, but only if approached with strategic intent.

Tourism, long a cornerstone of the economy is recovering with arrivals surpassing two million in 2024. But the focus must shift from volume to value. High-spending travellers, eco-tourism, wellness retreats and cultural heritage experiences can significantly increase per capita earnings while reducing environmental degradation. Countries like Costa Rica and Bhutan offer instructive models in this regard.

Agriculture, which employs roughly a quarter of the workforce but contributes less than 10% of GDP remains under productive. Climate variability, floods, droughts and shifting rainfall patterns is already affecting yields. Modernisation through technology, irrigation efficiency, crop diversification and value-added exports (such as processed foods and speciality crops) is essential to improve both resilience and income.

Perhaps more ambitiously, Sri Lanka could position itself as a regional hub for education and sports. The global international education market exceeds US$300 billion annually. Even capturing a small share by attracting South Asian, African, and Middle Eastern students could generate significant foreign exchange. Similarly, sports tourism and training facilities, particularly in cricket, athletics and water sports offer under-explored opportunities.

These sectors not only diversify revenue streams but also build human capital and global linkages.

Leveraging Geography in a New World Order

Sri Lanka’s location, just 10 nautical miles from one of the world’s busiest east–west shipping lanes remains one of its most underutilised strategic assets. An estimated 60,000 ships pass through these routes annually, carrying a significant share of global trade.

The Port of Colombo already handles large volumes annually and is one of the busiest transshipment hubs in South Asia with India accounting for a large share of its volume. Yet competition is intensifying from regional ports and capturing greater value requires more than physical expansion. Efficiency, digitisation, customs reform and policy consistency are critical.

In parallel, large-scale infrastructure projects such as the Hambantota port and the Mattala airport must be integrated into a coherent national logistics strategy, rather than operating as isolated assets.

At the same time, foreign policy must adapt to a multipolar world. Strategic non-alignment, long a hallmark of Sri Lanka’s diplomacy, will need recalibration. Balancing relationships with major powers including China, India, Russia, the United States and regional actors require consistency, transparency and a clear articulation of national priorities.

Foreign Policy in a Multipolar Region

Sri Lanka’s foreign policy must be grounded in realism, balance and long-term national interest. Above all, it is vital to maintain close and constructive relations with India. The events of recent years have demonstrated this clearly. During the 2022 financial crisis, India provided more than US$4 billion in assistance through fuel supplies, credit lines, currency support and humanitarian aid. India has also repeatedly supported Sri Lanka in the aftermath of natural disasters and supply disruptions, helping reduce the full impact of crises on the Sri Lankan economy and population. Geographic proximity alone ensures that India will remain Sri Lanka’s most important strategic partner.

At the same time, relations with China remain equally important. Sri Lanka has benefited substantially from Chinese investment, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative. Major infrastructure projects such as the Hambantota Port, the Colombo Port City and expressway developments have significantly expanded the country’s economic and logistical capacity. China will continue to be an important source of investment, trade and infrastructure financing.

The challenge for Sri Lanka is therefore not to choose between India and China, but to maintain productive relations with both while preserving its own strategic autonomy. Sri Lanka’s long tradition of non-alignment remains highly relevant in an increasingly polarised world. The country should continue to engage with all major powers including India, China, the United States, Japan and regional partners while avoiding entanglement in rivalries or being pressured into taking sides.

By consistently upholding international law, freedom of navigation, and a rules-based order, Sri Lanka can strengthen its reputation as a stable and credible partner. A principled, non-aligned foreign policy: firm enough to resist external pressure, yet flexible enough to engage widely, will place Sri Lanka in good stead strategically over the medium to long term.

From Reaction to Strategy

The underlying challenge for Sri Lanka is not a lack of opportunity but a tendency toward reactive policy making. Crisis after crisis has forced short-term responses such as fuel rationing, import controls and ad hoc tax changes, often at the expense of long-term planning.

What is needed now is a coherent national strategy that integrates energy, economic and foreign policy into a unified framework. Such a strategy should be anchored in measurable targets: reducing fossil fuel imports as a share of total imports, increasing renewable capacity to over 70% of electricity generation, doubling export earnings and diversifying foreign exchange sources.

It must also be underpinned by institutional reform: strengthening regulatory bodies, improving public financial management and ensuring policy continuity across political cycles.

Resilience is not built in moments of crisis, but in the choices made before they occur.

A Narrow Window for Transformation

The current global uncertainty, while daunting, also presents a window for transformation. Countries that act decisively now, investing in energy independence, diversifying their economies and positioning themselves strategically will be better placed to navigate future shocks.

Sri Lanka has done this before. Its post-independence investments in education and health delivered strong human development outcomes relative to income levels. A similar level of ambition is now required in economic and strategic policy.

By reducing dependence on volatile external factors, investing in sustainable and diversified growth drivers and leveraging its geographic advantage, Sri Lanka can reposition itself for a more uncertain world.

The alternative, continuing along the current path, risks leaving the country perpetually exposed to forces beyond its control.

In a fractured world, small nations cannot afford drift. They must choose direction.

——————————————–

The author is a specialist on critical infrastructure, climate change and water management.

By Siraj Perera



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People’s mandate and judicial legitimacy

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BASL public forum held last Saturday

Sri Lanka is witnessing the dismantling of the culture of impunity that dominated public life for decades. This is happening through the courts, police investigations and legal process. It is not an easy task and requires strong leadership as it is generating strong resistance. The ongoing revelations about the nexus between politicians, including those at the highest levels, and criminal networks show that the government’s electoral mandate with regard to corruption and crime is now being translated into action through the legal system. The vote of the people at the last national elections was for a corruption free country and an end to the climate of impunity that had prevailed for decades. They voted for a system change that would replace impunity with accountability under the rule of law. They expected those who had looted the country and brought it to the point of bankruptcy to be held accountable through the due process of law.

The cases that are being investigated by the police, in tandem with the Attorney General’s Department, and adjudicated by the judiciary are based on hard evidence. Much of the evidence that is now receiving publicity had been available several years ago and had even entered the legal process. In the past those cases failed to reach fruition. Investigations lost momentum, prosecutions failed to marshal the available evidence and many cases were dismissed, some on technical grounds. Between 2019 and 2024, a total of 102 cases were withdrawn from the courts by the government authorities. The public knew, or strongly believed, that corruption and serious crimes had taken place. The inability to establish wrongdoing before a court of law and hold those responsible accountable created a climate in which political power appeared to provide protection from legal accountability.

A countrywide study titled Factors Guiding Voter Preference in Elections in Sri Lanka was commissioned by the National Peace Council prior to the 2024 elections under the European Union funded project Active Citizens for Elections and Democracy and conducted by researchers Dr Mahesh Senanayake and Ms Crishni Silva of the University of Colombo. It found overwhelming public support for accountability and good governance. While 93 percent of respondents identified resolving the economic crisis as their foremost electoral concern, an equally striking 83 percent said they prioritised candidates committed to fighting corruption. The mandate given to the government can, therefore, be interpreted to mean to restore integrity to public life and end the long standing culture of impunity.

Different Approach

Today, it can be seen that the police, the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption, the Attorney General’s Department and the judiciary are approaching matters of impunity in respect of corruption and crime in a manner that is markedly different from the past. Several persons who formerly occupied high office have now been subjected to due legal process and, in a number of cases, convicted after judicial scrutiny at different levels of the court system. This is an important difference from earlier years when cases involving politically prominent persons frequently failed to proceed or collapsed before reaching their conclusion. The strength of the present accountability process lies not only in the convictions that have been secured but also in the growing public confidence that no one is above the law. It is in this context that reports of a government proposal to extend by two years the retirement age of judges of the Supreme Court and the Court of Appeal have generated support from those who wish to see the present accountability process continue and opposition from those who see it as an attempt to influence the judiciary.

Many countries have increased judicial retirement ages in recognition of longer life expectancy and the value of retaining experienced judges. This has not only been limited to the judiciary but also the academia and the public service. However, the controversy in Sri Lanka is due to the context and as the proposal for an extension of the period of service of judges of the superior courts comes at a time when the courts are hearing politically significant corruption and criminal cases. The Bar Association of Sri Lanka has taken the lead in questioning the proposed constitutional amendment. The BASL has stated that it “notes with grave concern” reports that the government is considering increasing the retirement age of judges of the Supreme Court and the Court of Appeal. It has warned that extending the tenure of sitting judges at this point of time is likely to be viewed by the public as an attempt to interfere with the independence of the judiciary.

The main issue raised by the BASL is therefore one of preserving public confidence in the administration of justice. A discussion organised by the BASL also highlighted that this issue has implications beyond Sri Lanka. Representatives of the Commonwealth Lawyers Association and LAWASIA acknowledged that many countries have increased the retirement age of judges in recognition of greater life expectancy and the value of retaining experienced judges. Their concern was not with increasing the retirement age itself but with changing the tenure of sitting judges while politically significant corruption cases are before the courts. In such circumstances, even well intentioned reform could create a public perception that the judiciary is being influenced to take forward the government’s mandate in a partisan manner.

Maintain Confidence

The challenge before the government is to preserve two equally important objectives. The first is to continue implementing the people’s mandate to hold the corrupt and those responsible for grave crimes accountable before the law. The second is to ensure that nothing is done which could diminish public confidence in the independence and impartiality of the judiciary that is entrusted with carrying out that responsibility. The strength of the present accountability process lies in the confidence it has generated among the public that investigations, prosecutions and judicial decisions are being made according to law as in the convictions that have been secured. Sri Lanka has come a long way from the days when politically sensitive cases rarely reached a successful conclusion. It would be unfortunate if doubts regarding the independence of the judiciary were to overshadow what has otherwise been a significant institutional achievement.

In the face of the concerns expressed by the BASL, opposition political parties and international legal organisations, it would be prudent for the government to widen the discussion on the proposed amendment. If there is a compelling case to increase the retirement age of judges of the superior courts, that case should be placed before the public and parliament and debated openly. Such a constitutional amendment should not rest solely on the government’s parliamentary majority, even if it has the numbers to secure its passage. Simply utilising the numbers that the government on its own to make changes to the constitution will not increase its legitimacy or credibility. Those values will be strengthened if they were preceded by public consultation and supported across party lines in Parliament. Bipartisan political support can be expected from those in the opposition, of whom there are many, who have shown an inclination to practice responsible politics in the national interest.

The people voted not only to change a government but to change a system. They expected those who abused public trust to be held accountable through institutions that commanded public confidence. That expectation is beginning to be fulfilled. It should not be placed at risk by constitutional change that lacks broad public acceptance. If the government believes there is a compelling case to extend the retirement age of the judges of the superior courts, it should first make that case to the people and seek bipartisan support in Parliament with those in the opposition who are also sincere about anti-corruption and good governance. The challenge is to protect the independence of the judiciary while ensuring that no one is above the law. Overcoming this challenge is the surest way to make Sri Lanka’s transition from a culture of impunity to one of accountability a lasting one.

by Jehan Perera

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Intelligence-led governance: the strategic path to a sovereign nation

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In an increasingly volatile and interconnected world, the strength of a nation is no longer determined solely by the size of its military, the abundance of its natural resources, or the growth of its economy.

In an increasingly volatile and interconnected world, the strength of a nation is no longer determined solely by the size of its military, the abundance of its natural resources, or the growth of its economy. The true measure of national strength lies in the resilience of its institutions, the confidence of its people, the effectiveness of its governance, and its ability to anticipate and respond to emerging challenges before they become national crises.

The twenty-first century has introduced a security landscape that is far more complex than ever before. Nations today confront not only conventional military threats but also terrorism, organised crime, cyber-attacks, economic instability, disinformation, climate change, pandemics, energy insecurity, irregular migration, financial crimes, and geopolitical competition. These challenges are interconnected and demand integrated responses rather than isolated solutions.

To navigate this evolving environment successfully, every nation requires a shared strategic vision supported by strong institutions working in harmony. At the centre of this vision should be a modern, professional, and intelligence-led system of governance that enables informed decision-making, protects democratic values, and promotes sustainable national development.

A Shared Strategic Vision

Every successful nation should aspire towards a common national vision:

A Sovereign Nation Happy People Peaceful Society Prosperous Economy A Respected Global Partner

These are not independent aspirations but interconnected national outcomes. Achieving them requires every State institution to work collectively under a common strategic framework rather than as isolated entities pursuing individual objectives.

A sovereign nation is one that possesses not only secure borders but also strong institutions, economic resilience, social cohesion, and the confidence to make independent national decisions. Sovereignty today extends beyond territorial integrity to include economic security, cyber resilience, energy security, food security, environmental sustainability, and protection against external influence.

Good Governance: The Cornerstone

The foundation of every successful nation is good governance.

Transparency, accountability, integrity, professionalism, and efficient public administration create an environment where citizens trust their institutions and investors have confidence in the country’s future. Corruption, political interference, inefficiency, and weak institutions undermine national resilience and weaken sovereignty from within.

Good governance is not merely an administrative principle; it is a national security imperative.

When public institutions function efficiently, public services improve, economic opportunities expand, and social grievances diminish. This reduces vulnerabilities that extremist groups, organised criminals, and foreign actors often exploit.

The Rule of Law and Judicial Independence

An independent judiciary is one of the strongest pillars of democracy.

Justice must be administered impartially and without fear or favour. Citizens must have confidence that the law applies equally to everyone, regardless of social status or political influence.

Judicial independence strengthens public confidence, attracts foreign investment, and reinforces national stability. Investors are more likely to invest in countries where contracts are enforceable, disputes are resolved fairly, and property rights are protected.

Likewise, professional law enforcement agencies play a vital role in safeguarding public order. Intelligence-led policing, supported by modern investigative techniques, community engagement, and technological innovation, enables law enforcement to prevent crime rather than merely react to it.

Human Rights: A Strategic Asset

There is often a misconception that national security and human rights exist in opposition. In reality, they reinforce one another.

Respect for human dignity, equality before the law, freedom of expression, religious freedom, and constitutional rights strengthens national unity and social cohesion. Citizens who trust their institutions are more willing to cooperate with authorities, report suspicious activities, and participate in community safety initiatives.

Communities become the first line of defence against extremism, organised crime, and social unrest when mutual trust exists between citizens and the State.

Human rights should therefore be viewed not as obstacles to security but as essential components of sustainable national security.

Intelligence: The Strategic Nerve Centre

At the heart of modern governance lies an effective national intelligence network.

Traditionally, intelligence was associated primarily with military operations and counter-terrorism. Today, its responsibilities extend much further.

Modern intelligence supports political leadership by providing timely, accurate, objective, and actionable information that enables informed decision-making. It anticipates threats, identifies opportunities, and supports strategic planning across all sectors of government.

An effective intelligence system should be:

*  Predictive rather than reactive.

*  Preventive rather than investigative alone.

*  Integrated rather than fragmented.

*  Technology-driven rather than paper-based.

*  People-centred rather than institution-centred.

Artificial intelligence, big data analytics, cyber intelligence, financial intelligence, geospatial intelligence, satellite imagery, behavioural analysis, digital forensics, and open-source intelligence are transforming the intelligence profession worldwide.

Countries that fail to modernise their intelligence capabilities risk strategic surprise and reduced competitiveness in an increasingly data-driven world.

Intelligence Beyond National Security

Modern intelligence should no longer be confined to counter-terrorism or espionage.

Its role should extend to supporting national development through the protection of critical infrastructure, monitoring economic trends, securing supply chains, safeguarding maritime interests, protecting natural resources, and assessing climate-related risks.

Intelligence should assist policymakers in areas such as:

*  Economic planning

*  Public health preparedness

*  Disaster risk reduction

*  Cybersecurity

*  Energy security

*  Food security

*  Environmental protection

*  Artificial intelligence governance

*  Foreign policy

*  Investment protection

An intelligence-led government anticipates future challenges instead of merely responding after crises emerge.

Whole-of-Government Cooperation

One of the greatest weaknesses in many developing nations is institutional fragmentation.

Government agencies often collect valuable information independently but fail to share it effectively. This creates duplication, delays, and missed opportunities.

A National Intelligence Fusion Centre should integrate information from intelligence services, police, armed forces, immigration, customs, financial intelligence units, cyber security agencies, disaster management authorities, health services, and environmental agencies.

Such integration provides decision-makers with a comprehensive national picture and significantly improves crisis management and strategic planning.

Economic Prosperity Through Security

Economic development depends fundamentally upon stability.

Foreign investors seek countries where governance is predictable, corruption is controlled, contracts are enforceable, infrastructure is secure, and political stability is maintained.

An effective intelligence system quietly protects these conditions by identifying threats to investment, monitoring organised crime, preventing financial fraud, protecting critical infrastructure, and safeguarding strategic industries.

Security and economic development are therefore mutually reinforcing.

Investment creates employment.

Employment reduces poverty.

Reduced poverty strengthens social stability.

Social stability reinforces national security.

International Partnerships

No nation can successfully confront modern threats alone.

Transnational organised crime, cybercrime, narcotics trafficking, terrorism, money laundering, illegal migration, and environmental crimes operate across borders.

Regional and global intelligence cooperation has therefore become indispensable.

Information sharing, joint investigations, coordinated maritime surveillance, and collaborative cyber defence significantly enhance national capabilities while strengthening diplomatic relationships.

Strong intelligence supports effective diplomacy.

Effective diplomacy enhances trade, investment, tourism, education, and technological cooperation.

Ultimately, international confidence contributes directly to national prosperity.

The Relationship Between National Stakeholders

National success depends upon collaboration among all stakeholders.

Government provides leadership and policy direction.

The judiciary safeguards justice.

Law enforcement protects public safety.

The intelligence community provides foresight and early warning.

Civil society strengthens social cohesion.

Educational institutions develop future leaders.

The private sector generates investment and innovation.

International partners facilitate trade, cooperation, and knowledge sharing.

Citizens themselves remain the most important stakeholders.

When these institutions operate with mutual trust, shared objectives, and effective coordination, they create a resilient State capable of responding confidently to both domestic and international challenges.

The Strategic Path Forward

Every nation requires a long-term vision rather than short-term political agendas.

That vision should place national interest above partisan interests and institutional collaboration above bureaucratic competition.

The pathway is straightforward:

Good Governance Independent Judiciary Professional Law Enforcement Protection of Human Rights Effective National Intelligence Network Political Stability Investor Confidence Economic Growth Foreign Direct Investment Peaceful Society Happy People A Sovereign Nation

This strategic chain demonstrates that sovereignty is not achieved through military strength alone. It is the cumulative outcome of good governance, justice, intelligence, economic resilience, and public confidence.

The future belongs to nations that can anticipate change, adapt rapidly, and make informed strategic decisions. Intelligence must therefore evolve from being viewed solely as a security function to becoming a central pillar of national governance and development.

A modern intelligence network should serve as the strategic nervous system of the State—connecting governance with justice, justice with security, security with economic prosperity, and prosperity with international respect.

A sovereign nation is ultimately one where institutions are trusted, citizens are protected, rights are respected, opportunities are created, and decisions are guided by knowledge rather than assumption. When all stakeholders work in harmony under a shared strategic vision, the result is a nation that is secure, prosperous, peaceful, and respected on the global stage.

The challenge before every developing nation is therefore not simply to strengthen its security apparatus but to embrace Intelligence-Led Governance as a national philosophy—one that integrates good governance, rule of law, human rights, innovation, and strategic foresight into a unified framework for sustainable national development. Such a vision will not only safeguard sovereignty but also ensure that future generations inherit a nation defined by stability, prosperity, and enduring peace

By Mahil Dole, SSP (Rtd.)

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The perfect victim: How institutions respond

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Nils Christie

It has been almost two months since the judgement of Abeyasinghe v Tilakaratne and others by the Supreme Court. Since then, I have often been asked a simple question, which I, too, have asked myself. “Has anything actually changed?” My answer is both yes and no. Judgements can uphold the law, direct institutions and clarify principles. But they cannot, by themselves, change cultures.

I shall take the liberty of writing this piece because, in the weeks following the judgment, I have found myself reflecting less on the outcome of the case and more on what it reveals about our institutions. Yet institutions do not change simply because a court has spoken. They change only when they are willing to question long-held assumptions, reflect honestly on their procedures and practices, learn from their shortcomings and act decisively to foster a culture that places accountability at its centre.

The myth of the perfect victim

One such assumption is about the conduct of the Ideal or Perfect victim. The concept of the “ideal victim” was first articulated by the Norwegian criminologist Nils Christie in 1986. Interestingly, Christie was not concerned with identifying those most likely to become victims of crime. Instead, his question was who is most readily recognised and accepted by society as a “real” victim? Society is often more willing to extend sympathy and credibility to victims who fit a particular stereotype. According to Christie, the “ideal victim” is someone perceived to be weak and vulnerable, engaged in a respectable activity, in a place where they have every right to be, harmed by someone clearly viewed as “big” or “bad,” and, importantly, a stranger rather than someone they know. These characteristics continue to influence how victims are perceived today. Although we may not consciously apply such criteria, they often shape our instinctive judgments about who deserves to be believed.

In the context of sexual violence within universities, the assumptions surrounding the ideal victim quickly begin to unravel. Power relationships within universities are often complex, and professional relationships may have existed before the misconduct. The alleged perpetrator may not be a stranger but a lecturer, supervisor, colleague, or fellow student. The complainant may continue interacting with the alleged perpetrator because academic progression or employment leaves little choice. When a victim does not fit the mould of the “perfect victim,” attention shifts away from the conduct of the alleged perpetrator and towards the conduct of the complainant.

What should be kept in mind is that victims respond to trauma differently. Some report immediately; many do not. Some become emotional; others appear composed. Some resign from their workplace, while others continue to work because they have no realistic alternative or because they wish to confront the violence head on. Some preserve every piece of evidence; others delete messages simply because they cannot bear to see them again. Yet these perfectly human responses are often interpreted as reasons to doubt credibility.

Universities provide a particularly complex setting for this phenomenon. Most complainants do not initially seek justice. More often, they simply want the harassment to stop so that they can continue their education or employment in an environment where they feel safe. Sometimes victims make anonymous complaints, not because they wish to avoid accountability, but because anonymity provides the only sense of security they have. During preliminary inquiries/ fact finding processes, confidentiality can often be maintained. However, if the matter proceeds to a formal disciplinary process, complainants are usually required to reveal their identities. It is at this point that many decide not to proceed further, not because the harassment did not occur, but because the personal cost of pursuing justice becomes overwhelming.

Perhaps this should prompt us to ask a different question. Instead of asking why anonymous complaints exist or why complainants don’t come forward (sooner), should we not ask why so many complainants feel unsafe engaging with the institutional process?

The subject of scrutiny

When survivors do come forward, they frequently encounter another familiar phenomenon, victim blaming.

“Why didn’t you complain earlier?”

“Why didn’t you go to the police?”

“If you were sexually harassed, why are you still working there?”

“Why did you continue interacting with him?”

“The reason this happened is because you showed positivity towards him.”

“There is no smoke without fire.”

Although these questions appear different, they have something in common. They all examine the behaviour of the complainant. Very few begin by asking why the alleged perpetrator behaved in the way described. The familiar proverb, “There is no smoke without fire,” is often used to suggest that the complainant must have done something to invite the misconduct. Yet perhaps we have misunderstood where the fire lies. The fire is not the complainant’s behaviour. The fire is the conduct of the alleged perpetrator. The complaint is the smoke that finally becomes visible.

These responses also reveal another contradiction. If a victim complains immediately, some might question their motives. If they delay, the delay becomes the issue. If they resign, they may be described as unstable or unable to cope. If they remain in employment, their continued presence is taken as evidence that the misconduct could not have been serious or that it never had happened. If they show emotion, they risk being dismissed as irrational. If they remain composed, they may be accused of exaggerating. In truth, there is often no version of events in which a complainant can satisfy every expectation placed upon them. If our systems only work for the “perfect victim,” then they were never truly designed for victims at all.

The silence that speaks

The recent judgment also prompted me to reflect on another aspect of institutional culture, silence. Within academia, even discussing judgments concerning one’s own institution may be framed as bringing the institution into disrepute. Such framing places academics in an impossible position. Those who speak are sometimes portrayed as being disloyal or as failing to respect the institution they serve. Yet genuine respect for an institution should not require silence in the face of injustice. Universities are places that encourage academic freedom, critical inquiry, evidence-based reasoning, and intellectual debate. They should, therefore, be places where uncomfortable conversations are not avoided but embraced.

The relative silence surrounding the judgment in academia raises important questions. Does silence reflect satisfaction that justice has been served? Does it reflect concern about damaging the reputation of one’s university? Does it reflect uncertainty about whether difficult institutional conversations are welcome? Or does it reflect a real or perceived fear of professional consequences for speaking openly? These are questions that deserve thoughtful reflection.

Post judgement reflections

At the same time, my experience in the weeks following the judgment has also been one of hope. Individuals who have experienced different forms of abuse have quietly come forward to share their own stories with me. Some have sought legal advice. Others have simply wanted someone to listen. Their experiences remind me that judgments do more than resolve disputes between parties. They send messages to those who have remained silent, that seeking justice remains possible. Perhaps that is one answer to the question I posed at the beginning of this article. Has anything actually changed? For some victims, I believe the answer is yes. A judgement can restore hope and encourage those who had previously felt that their voices would never be heard.

Yet judgments alone cannot erase trauma, restore lost years, or undo the personal and professional consequences that many victims endure. Courts can interpret the law, but they cannot, by themselves, transform institutional culture. Culture changes only when institutions and university communities are willing to learn from judgments rather than merely comply with them. It changes when realities of power imbalances are recognised, when credibility is assessed through evidence rather than stereotypes, and when the question “Why did the victim not come forward sooner?” is replaced with “What conditions made it so difficult for the victim to come forward?” Ultimately, the true value of a judgement lies not only in the orders it makes, but also in the conversations it inspires and the institutional self-reflection it demands. Whether anything truly changes will not depend on the judgement itself, but on whether institutions have the courage to learn from them.

(Udari Abeyasinghe is attached to the Faculty of Dental Sciences at the University of Peradeniya)

Kuppi is a politics and pedagogy happening on the margins of the lecture hall that parodies, subverts, and simultaneously reaffirms social hierarchies.

by Udari Abeyasinghe

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