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South Asia not ready for common currency
(Daily Star/ANN) South Asia is not yet ready for a common currency, said economists from countries in the region at the opening of a two-day 14th South Asia Economic Summit in Sheraton Dhaka on Saturday.
However, integration in trade and investment, increased mobility and people-to-people connectivity will provide the incentive for monetary cooperation in the region, they told a session on macroeconomic cooperation and the possibility of a common currency.
South Asia accounts for nearly one fourth of the global population and it has the market and ability to grow together, said the economists at the event being hosted by the Centre for Policy Dialogue.
Yet it is the least integrated in terms of trade, said Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at The World Bank, Bangladesh.Intra-regional trade accounts for 5 percent of South Asia’s total trade whereas the share of intra-regional trade in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) region is 25 percent, he said.
South Asia is diverse in land area, gross domestic product or economic output, and population but the region’s countries have similar levels of human and economic development which calls for increased integration, he said.However, there is a lot of barriers to mobility, he said, citing non-tariff barriers, complicated visa policies and rigid bureaucracies.
“There is high sensitivity to national sovereignty. National currencies evoke strong attachment and emotion,” said Hussain at the event.
Political will to give up fiscal and monetary autonomy is also necessarily to go for a common currency, he said.
Complementarity in trade and free flow of labour and capital among the members can make cooperation over a currency more likely, he said.
Several countries have taken steps to reduce dependence on the US dollar and Bangladesh also took bilateral initiatives to settle trade in Chinese yuan and Indian rupee in 2022 and 2023, said Hussain.
However, the response with regard to trade in rupee is muted while exporters in China prefer receiving payments in dollars, euro and pound sterling, he said.There is persistent and growing trade deficit among Bangladesh, China and India, which makes trade in rupee and yuan limited here, he said.
Bangladesh’s average monthly trade deficit is $1.13 billion with China and $644 million with India.Comparability of economies is needed for a common currency, said Md Habibur Rahman, chief economist at Bangladesh Bank. “We are not right there…We can search for an appropriate time and opportunity for this,” he said.
A mechanism enabling independence is needed to avoid sanctions, said Abid Qaiyum Suleri, executive director at Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Pakistan.
Pakistan is relying on barter trade with countries such as Afghanistan, China and Russia, he said.
“Instead of losing hope on a common currency, we can explore so that we reduce dollar dependence,” said Suleri.
Posh Raj Pandey, senior economic advisor of the finance ministry of Nepal, proposed for establishing a regional financial market in this regard.
Use of the US dollar for international transaction settlement is declining, said Professor Sachin Chaturvedi, director general of the Research and Information System for Developing Countries, India.
International transactions other than that of the US dollar accounted for 9 percent of total global trade in July 2022 and it rose to 14 percent in December the same year, he added.
“This is an indication of rising arrangement of settlement in non-dollar,” he said, adding that 38 countries have shown interest to trade with India in rupee.
However, to make trade in the rupee popular between Bangladesh and India, a large line of credit in rupee is needed, said Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh.
“Otherwise, the performance we have seen is dismal…We also should think of currency swap to protect against external shock,” he said.
Countries should start with trade facilitation for economic integration and go for common documentation for customs, encourage firms to invest regionally and foster people to people connectivity, said Mansur.
Visa issuance and border control is quite pervasive and old fashioned, he said.
The economist also suggested harmonisation of tax and trade policies among members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.
“We also need monetary policy harmonisation. We need to think about bringing inflation close to each other and currency stability. Cooperation at the institutional level is critical,” he said.
News
Merchant Shipping Secretariat probes bribery scandal
… bribe giver departs Colombo port
The Merchant Shipping Secretariat (MSS) is investigating a complaint received from the Captain of an Indonesian flagged vessel Sensho that he had to pay an official USD 5,000 bribe to facilitate what our sources called port state control inspection.
Sources said that the cement carrier arrived at the Colombo Port, on Friday, and departed after having passed the rigorous inspection. Responding to queries, sources said that after paying the bribe, the vessel’s Captain has lodged complaints with MSS and the Commission to Investigate Allegation of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC).
In spite of the government’s high profile anti-corruption drive there seemed to be fresh cases, sources said, adding that MSS had received a comprehensive complaint. The vessel had departed Colombo for Jeddah, sources said.
“The issue at hand is whether there have been unreported cases of MSS personnel receiving bribes,” sources said, acknowledging that the Captain, instead of immediately bringing the demand for USD 5,000 bribe to the MSS, had paid it and departed Colombo. (SF)
News
Theft of USD 2.5 mn: Dinana Dakuna claims COPF trying to protect mastermind
An opposition political group, styled as Dinana Dakuna, has accused the Committee of Public Finance (COPF) of protecting the masterminds behind the USD 2.5 mn theft from the Treasury.
Commenting on the recent COPF report on the theft, the group has alleged that the all-party parliamentary grouping made an attempt to shift the blame to the Central Bank as part of a cover-up. It has described the COPF report as a deliberate attempt to suppress the truth.
The group said that the COPF conveniently asserted that the theft took place due to the inexperience of officers concerned, thereby diverting the attention from those who perpetrated it.
An alleged attempt to portray the collapse of the administrative set-up that led to the USD 2.5 mn theft as a human resource problem, has also been questioned by Dinana Dakuna.
News
COPF chief slams security sticker scam
The country was losing so much revenue due to the controversial liquor bottle security sticker scam that if tangible measures were taken to stop the fraud, they could fund about eight projects on the scale of the Suwaseriya ambulance service, Chairman of the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) and Colombo District MP Dr. Harsha de Silva said on Saturday.
Addressing the media in Colombo, Dr. de Silva described the security sticker, introduced for alcoholic beverages, as a “major scam” and called on the government to act responsibly when the current tender is renewed in 2027.
The former State Minister said the security sticker system had originally been introduced with the legitimate objective of improving tax compliance and preventing excise duty evasion in the liquor industry. However, he alleged that the manner in which the programme is currently being implemented was resulting in significant losses to the State.
According to Dr. de Silva, the government pays an Indian company US$8 for the digital printing of every 1,000 security stickers, although the actual cost of printing the same quantity is only about 12 US cents.
“The money being lost through this scheme is sufficient to finance around eight Suwaseriya-type projects,” he said, highlighting, what he described as, the excessive cost burden borne by the State.
Dr. de Silva noted that the high taxes imposed on alcoholic beverages had created incentives for manufacturers, distributors and liquor outlet owners to evade taxes, making a security sticker mechanism a necessary regulatory tool.
He said the proposal to introduce security stickers was first put forward during the Yahapalana administration in 2016.
The tender process commenced in 2017, was concluded in 2018 and the system was eventually implemented in 2023. The COPF Chairman said his Committee had recently undertaken an extensive review of excise revenue and the operation of the security sticker programme.
During the inquiry, it emerged that the Excise Department still lacked a computerised system capable of recording and managing data, related to the stickers, despite their importance to government revenue collection.
Dr. de Silva further said that Excise Department officials, who appeared before the Committee on Public Finance, had maintained that no fraud was taking place in relation to the sticker programme.
However, he expressed concern over the subsequent seizure of a stock of security stickers, in Malabe, only days after those assurances had been given.
He questioned whether stickers recovered during raids were genuine labels, legally obtained from the authorised supplier, or counterfeit versions, printed illegally, arguing that either possibility pointed to serious shortcomings in a system intended to guarantee security and traceability.
Dr. de Silva also referred to media reports concerning the company awarded the security sticker tender and allegations of fraudulent activities linked to the firm in several other countries.
He urged authorities to ensure greater transparency and accountability in the management of the programme and to carefully scrutinise the tender process when it comes up for renewal next year.
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