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Sajith and Ranil are clones of the same stable

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Same-ingredient ice-creams, but two different toppings

by Kumar David

Outside the Tamil areas there are just three alternatives to choose from – the government (SLPP), the JVP led NPP alliance and the UNP-twins which are the same in content but come in two toppings; traditional or youthful. The purpose of this relatively short piece today is not to canvass for the NPP (I am on the National List) nor to elaborate in any detail why the SLPP is dangerous – I have done that a few times on previous occasions – but to emphasise something that has gone under the radar. That is that intrinsically and essentially there is no substantial difference between the Ranil-UNP and the Sajith-UNP now mustering under the acronym SJB. The two ice creams are made of the same ingredients, just flavoured with different toppings, Maharaja Melt or Elephant Ecstasy.

For decades Ranil and Sajith were comrades in arms and fellow travellers in the UNP, even now they argue about who the real UNP is. For decades upon decades they shared the same ideology and the same political programmes, they endorsed the same economic policies, they loved the IMF and the global right with equal fervour. I cannot drive it in hard enough that they are programmatic and policy clones; the same breed sharing the same genes. In ideology, history and political ethos they are siblings. What has surfaced in the UNP in recent months is a dispute about who can pull more votes; that’s all, essentially that’s the bottom line. Zeitgeist is a German word that denotes the spirit of the times, trends of thought and feeling, the characteristics of an ethos. The Ranil-UNP and the Sajith-UNP mustering as SJB are manifestations of a shared Zeitgeist.

There is NO difference in ideology, economic outlook, political philosophy, tradition, evolution or historical role between these two wings of the UNP. Of course, as in any power struggle the abstract parallelism is marinated by personal ambitions – the ambitions of the young-pretender, the reluctance of the old-fart to bow out, and more spicy, the thannaha of courtier Navin to foil the return of the young-pretender, and on the other side sly-prince Champika who knows full well that his IQ is way higher than Sajith’s and is sharpening a gritty blade in readiness for 2025.

To return to the big picture, the only, the sole, only and unique dispute between the two branches of the UNP before the divorce was who will be the better vote puller. Of all I have asked “Why are you for Sajith or why are you for Ranil” – I know dozens of UNPers – the conversation universally and without exception settles down to who will bring in more votes. I have never ever in these conversations heard any reference to policy, ideology, foreign affairs, debt, budget or programme except trivia like undergarments or cons about increasing allowances and wages by undoable amounts – election gundus! Usually even then, both sides fake up exactly the same gundus with a different number of zeroes at the end.

The hottest topic of disputation between UNP faction relates to issues such as: Ranil is old, tired, jaded and unfriendly, Sajith is young, energetic and bouncy. Or on the other side; Ranil is shrewd and knows to play the game, Sajith is an inexperienced bull in a China shop, or the Rajapsksas will use Sajith if needed and put him out in the cold and out of business. The sole dispute among UNPers is who can win more votes. “Policy! What’s that? Don’t muddy our waters with terms we care little about”, that’s the mentality that animates UNPers of both hues today.

What conclusively proves the shared nature of the genes of the twins is the question “Where are all the natural-Ranilists, the old Royalists and Thomians? Ranil’s natural and habitual retinue, Malik, Harsha, Eran, Fowzie and such like acolytes of neo-liberals, where are they today? All lined up in flank upon flank behind Sajith. Can you believe it, all the forces of right-wing social and economic reaction, all Lanka’s neoliberal baggage, has deserted the grandson of DRW and embraced the son of Prema-machang who the baggage much despised! They walked out of the habitual stables and lined up on the side of the “Lad born to be king” who hopefully will win them the steeplechase. Their Bonny Prince Charlie refrain “Oh boatman row like a bird on the wing” towards polling date.

I have used up more than half my permitted words driving home the ‘No real difference between the two outfits’ message because few people sit back and think about it. If the UNP is hopeless at this point in time, then both the Ranil version and the Sajith version are useless. If you do insist on voting UNP I don’t think it matters much which bunch you choose. My meaning is this; if you are voting against the government most likely it is because you believe that the authoritarian and militaristic trend of the Gotabhaya Presidency is dangerous. Presumably you see a period ahead which will be hazardous for the democratic freedoms that we have become accustomed to. I am not going to argue this point because I have done so often in this column and if you don’t agree you are unlikely to change your mind at this last moment.

I am targeting those of you who do agree with me on this point but imagine that voting Ranil or voting Sajith could be a way of resisting the drift to an autocratic executive. My case is that this is an illusion because neither twin will take a firm stand and oppose these dangerous trends when, or if as surely will be more likely, the peril materialises in concrete form.

Liberalism at home and abroad is facing its worst crisis in decades therefore it is necessary to mobilise a more determined leadership and inspire more forces than our UNP liberals of either flavour are capable of to meet of the threat.

If you abhor dictatorship your first priority is to defeat government attempts to grab two tirdsrds on August 5. The outcome anyway will probably be no-two thirds. However, not only cynics but everyone I meet says the government will buy MPs to make up the shortfall. If it’s a small number a simple cash transaction is envisaged but if 20 or more are needed Sajith’s or Ranil’s cross-over proclivities will be deemed worthy of pursuit. If the shortfall is less than 10 the purchase can be transacted on the ever-popular MP free-trade market. With a larger shortfall a bulk purchase wholesale deal has to be struck and it will have to be an auction for either the Sajith/SJB or the Ranil/UNP livestock herds. There is not much difference between sellers on the supply side; it only depends on price and sinecure.

When it comes to crunch time there is little that will stand in in the way of Ranil or Sajith in fashioning a deal with Gota to repeal 19A and/or to enact an altogether new constitution? The Wickremesinghes and the Rajapksas have had a good working relationship, not prosecuting each other’s households and giving way to each other on vital issues. As for Sajith, his manifesto is as silent as the tomb on constitutional issues; it is fair game to surmise that his door is open to a Gota seduction bid. The Constitution is the hottest topic in the election arena so Sajith’s silence is deafening and is it more reasonable to conclude that he is open to a love-in with Gota than to give him benefit of any doubt. There is nothing in his life story, his temperament or his campaign utterances to make one think otherwise; being an invertebrate he will go with the Sinhala-Buddhist populist flow.

Actually, today’s column is not intended to be an anti-Ranil or anti-Sajith diatribe but a genuine expression of anxiety. If you are a UNPer who longs to pension off jaded Ranil and date Sajith, that’s up to you and good luck if you have faith that he will stand tall against Gota. If on the other hand you imagine Ranil will mobilise to push back against authoritarianism good luck to your daydreams. Still, I would like to suggest that you should not stop half way, you should move all the way to link up with those who can be trusted to stand firm.

 



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Trump’s tariffs, AKD’s gazette and Sri Lanka’s diplomatic slumber

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“We are rather respectable in Colombo. We go to bed fairly early, and we remain there till morning. “

According to Sri Lanka’s diplomatic folklore, the late S.W. R. D. Bandaranaike uttered these words while explaining the reasons for Sri Lanka’s abstention on the UN resolution condemning the Soviet invasion of Hungary. Apparently, SWRD’s foreign ministry officials were asleep at home when the diplomatic cable seeking instructions was received from New York. In those days, there were no cell phones, Internet, or even fax or telex machines. The diplomatic cables were sent through post offices. Decoding them was a slow and time-consuming process. Thus, the government could not provide appropriate instructions to our mission in New York in time, and the Sri Lankan delegation abstained on that sensitive UN vote.

Sri Lanka’s Absence from Section 301 Consultations

But then, how does one explain Sri Lanka’s absence from the crucial bilateral consultation held in Washington by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) during March-April on “Forced Labour” under the Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974? Didn’t our foreign and trade ministries send appropriate instructions to Washington in time? Even if the instructions from the foreign ministry were transmitted to our embassy in Washington by pigeon carriers, there was enough time for Sri Lanka to participate in those meetings.

In March, the USTR initiated these 301 investigations on 60 trading partners, and invited all of them for confidential consultations. Out of the 60, 46 participated in these consultations. Sri Lanka was not one of them. Other countries that didn’t participate in these consultations included China, Russia, and Venezuela! In addition to that, the Section 301 Committee conducted a public hearing with interested parties on April 28 and 29. Washington-based diplomats, representatives from few trade ministries as well as representatives from many foreign trade associations and chambers participated in these hearings. Sri Lanka was once again conspicuously absent.

As a result, when the USTR published the proposed forced labour tariffs on June 2nd, Sri Lanka ended up with a 12.5% duty. Pakistani and Indonesian diplomats participated in these consultations and took appropriate follow-up measures, and managed to enter the 10% duty category. As even a threat of a modest tariff hike could disrupt supply chains and reduce competitiveness, particularly in an industry such as garments, I discussed this issue on 15 June and underscored the importance of Sri Lanka’s participation at the next hearing, which was scheduled to be held from July 7th .

Awakening from Diplomatic Slumber and AKD’s Gazette

Fortunately, Sri Lanka finally awoke from weeks of diplomatic slumber, and Ambassador Mahinda Samarasinghe participated in the public hearing on 9 July, and promised, “…. · We have agreed to the text in our negotiations with the USTR on forced labour, …. The gazette as we speak is being printed and I’m getting the gazette tomorrow morning, and the gazette will be shared with USTR as I get it“.

As promised, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake issued a gazette on 10 July banning the imports of goods produced by forced labour. These new regulations are very similar to what Pakistan and Indonesia enacted in April, after their consultations with USTR in March. Why couldn’t we do it in April? Why did we wait till the very last minute?

Challenges ahead

“War is too important to be left to generals alone,” is a famous saying attributed to former French Premier Georges Clemenceau. Similarly, monitoring our main markets is too important to be left to diplomats alone. The United States is the largest single-country market for Sri Lanka. Therefore, Sri Lankan trade chambers and associations should become more proactive in these markets and participate in these events. For example, the chairman of the Pakistani apparel exporters association participated in the April hearings. Similarly, representatives from the Indian Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the Confederation of Indian Industry, and Reliance Industries also participated in July hearings. At an event where each speaker is given only five minutes (strictly enforced), having a number of speakers from a country is an advantage. The presence of industry representatives in these kinds of events also help them understand the market dynamics and the future challenges. This is important, particularly because there will be many more challenges with Trump’s tariffs.

With the gazette issued on 10 July, Sri Lanka has imposed a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour. Now, the challenge will be to effectively enforce the prohibition. And what are the goods produced with forced labour? The USTR list only focuses on aluminum, cotton, electronics, lithium-ion batteries, rice, and tobacco. However, according to the U.S. Department of Labour, the list is much longer. Hence, this list may change continuously during the next two years and tariffs may fluctuate once again.

So, this is definitely not the time to slumber.

(The writer, a retired public servant, can be reached at senadhiragomi@gmail.com)

by Gomi Senadhira ✍️

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Tales of Mystery and Suspense 10 Casino for Sale

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After the overwhelming grotesquerie of J K Rowling’s latest Cormoran Strike novel (written, I should have noted, as the others were, under the pseudonym Robert Galbraith), I thought I should return to the world of fun, and also a much shorter description since this thriller moves quickly without the layers of detail that Rowling engages in.

I then move to the second comic thriller by Caryl Brahms and S J Simon. This, their second story to feature Vladimir Stroganoff and Adam Quill, was Casino for Sale, as lunatic a romp as the first, though without the emphasis on the ballet that characterized A Bullet in the Ballet.

This one begins with the impresario Stroganoff buying a casino cheap from Baron Sam de Rabinovich, only to find that it was a rundown place, not the grand casino of La Bazouche, a resort on the Frenc+h Riviera, as he had initially thought. The grand one belonged to Lord Buttonhooke, and Stroganoff could  not compete, until he thought of bringing the Ballet Stroganoff to the casino – which of course leads to Buttonhooke deciding to have ballet performances in his Casino too.

Stroganoff invites Quill to visit him, which Quill decides to do since he has left Scotland Yard, having come into a legacy. No one believes this, and he has to face questions as to what he did to have been sacked, with sympathy for having been found out.

Caryl and Simon

The day he arrives in La Bazouche there is a murder, of a vitriolic critic called Citrolo, in Stroganoff’s office. He had been going to write a damning review of the opening night of the ballet and Stroganoff, when he realizes Citrolo cannot be swayed, drugs him and dictates the review himself to the papers. He leaves Citrolo sleeping and finds him shot the next morning, whereupon he decides to muddy the waters and leave a suicide note and lots of other murder weapons. So much overkill, as it were, of course ensures that he is arrested.

But the excitable French detective who makes the arrest follows up his suggestion that Buttonhooke was also involved, and so the two casino owners find themselves in cells next door to each other, with the detective Gustave quite happy to provide creature comforts for a fee.

Quill decides he must investigate, and finds Gustave most cooperative, since he has a laid back attitude to work. So it is Quill that finds a notebook which makes it clear Citrolo is an accomplished blackmailer, and that there are lots of possible murderers, including Stroganoff’s croupier, who was crooked, Rabinovich, who was now working for Buttonhooke, a confidence trickster called Kurt Kukumber, whose prospectus for a dud gold mine was found in the office and Prince Alexis Artishok who was engaged in a deal to buy diamonds from the ballerina Dyra Dyrakova.

Stroganoff had been trying to get Dyrakova to dance for him, but having done so previously she had refused. But then to Stroganoff’s chagrin she agreed to dance for Buttonhooke. The clearly crooked Artishok had told Buttonhooke’s mistress Sadie Souse, who was not very bright, that Dyrakova possessed diamonds she was willing to sell cheap, and Sadie was determined to have them.

Quill meanwhile finds out that there was a secret passage to Stroganoff’s office, the obvious solution to what had begun as a locked room mystery, and that this was known by almost everyone apart from Stroganoff himself. And then Rabinovich is murdered, just after Gustave had released his two original suspects, leading him to blame Quill for having insisted on that and thus allowing them to kill again.

Soon afterwards Dyrakova arrives, and the town is full of posters announcing that she will appear in the casinos, elaborate posters for either one, since Stroganoff is determined that she will dance for him, and if she does not come willingly, he has devised a scheme to make her do so unwillingly. So, though Buttonhooke has her taken off to his yacht immediately she arrives at the station, Quill along with Arenskaya gets her into a launch and to Stroganoff’s casino, where she performs to tumultuous applause, not knowing for whom she is dancing.

When Quill asked her about the diamonds, she said she had sold them long ago, and that gave Quill the solution to the mystery. Rabinovich had known about this, and Artishok had killed him to prevent Sadie learning it from him, he had killed Citrolo who had recognized him for an accomplished card sharper, not a Russian prince at all. But before he is arrested, he gets away in a boat, and the police launch that pursues him is on the point of catching him up when it runs out of petrol.

Again, lots of excitement, and entertaining references  – Gustave grows marrows – and if not quite as brilliant as its predecessor, Casino was certainly a delightful read.

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The challenge of being positive about SAARC

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The RCSS forum addressed by SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar in progress. (Pic courtesy RCSS)

It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.

Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.

However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?

There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.

The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.

Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.

Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.

The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.

On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.

In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.

Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.

Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.

The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.

These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.

Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.

There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.

However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.

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