Business
Safeguarding lives and livelihood of Sri Lankans
Pandemics and Disruptions:
by Suresh Ranasinghe
The impact of COVID-19 on Sri Lanka’s labour market, education, migration, and health sectors were discussed at the second webinar panel discussion held on October 13, to mark the release of the ‘Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2021’ report, the flagship report of the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS).
The event saw presentations by Dr Nisha Arunatilake and Dr Bilesha Weeraratne from IPS, with expert insights from Ms Madhavie Gunawardena, Director of TRCSL and Former Commissioner of Labour and Dr Kolitha Wickramage, Global Migration Health Research and Epidemiology Coordinator, Migration Health Division, International Organization for Migration (IOM). Ashani Abayasekera from IPS moderated the discussion.
Key highlights of the discussion are presented in this blog.
Presentation: Labour Markets and Education
Dr Nisha Arunatilake
An estimated 225 million people lost their jobs globally in 2020 due to COVID-19, according to the International Labour Organization (ILO). Sri Lanka’s labour market was also severely affected, with 150,000 people losing jobs and the quality of available jobs deteriorated with many workers taking on more vulnerable forms of employment (eg. agriculture, self-employment) that have low social security. The unemployment rate rose by 0.7% in 2020. The most affected were youth, low and medium-skilled individuals, and males, while several women left the labour market altogether.
The pandemic affected different types of workers differently. Frontline workers were the most vulnerable, and a large share of frontline workers are females. The ILO has classified industries according to their COVID-19-related economic output risk. This calculation was used to see how COVID-19 has affected different types of workers, and it shows that 39% of workers are in high-risk industries in Sri Lanka. Further, medium-skilled workers and women are more likely to be in high-risk industries.
The government took various measures to provide relief to workers, but the relief packages were given is not as sizeable as the types of relief provided in other countries. IPS research shows that the perception of employees, employers, and trade union leaders is that the government could have done better by providing financial support through the EPF/ETF funds, as done in other countries like India.
The pandemic has highlighted the importance of providing pre-retirement social protection such as unemployment benefits and wage support during illnesses in addition to current post-retirement social protection measures. Therefore, it is necessary to create a separate fund to provide pre-retirement social protection as practised in Nepal, Malaysia, and Singapore.
A recent IPS study finds that, Sri Lanka’s ETF funds are sufficient to cover sickness and unemployment benefits to workers and provide wage support to retain jobs. In summary, the government must improve and expand access to social security for employees and firms, support firms to offer flexible work arrangements for higher labour participation and develop better labour market institutions that have the capacity to collect timely data and are prepared to address disaster risks.
Since March 2020, schools across Sri Lanka were closed other than for few brief periods of operation and the total number of school days missed are significantly higher in Sri Lanka compared to other countries. Even though the Ministry of Education and associated organisations provided lessons online and via TV, less than 50% of the students were reached online and in smaller schools, only 30% were reached by both online and TV. There needs to be an assessment done about the learning losses, and adjust the curricular, so that schools can focus on the most needed competencies to streamline and speed up the recovery.
Migration and Health
Dr Bilesha Weeraratne
A large number of migrant workers were forced to return much earlier than they planned due to the pandemic, and it affected earnings and their capacity to return. Notably, most of the returnees were either self-financed or their employer paid for their return air ticket. Limitations in Sri Lanka’s return and repatriation efforts were not able to bring a wide cross-section of returnees back to Sri Lanka from the onset itself. On average, there was a 4.5-month delay between the decision to return and the actual date of return. This was also because of the lack of proper information. Sri Lanka has a return and reintegration sub policy, and the issue was that it was not implemented.
Returning migrant workers require economic, social and psychosocial reintegration support but reintegration support was largely limited to immediate health support (testing, quarantine, treatment). Also, issues associated with the vaccination process in Sri Lanka such as irregular and inconsistent supply, delays in NMRA approvals, disorganised deployment etc. caused the delays in vaccinating potential migrant workers as well. However, the vaccination process for migrant workers was much better organised than the overall vaccination process in the country.
Sri Lanka sends 225,000 workers abroad while foreign annual exchange earnings is USD7 billion. Although in 2020 there were just 53,713 registered departures, remittances increased grew by 5.8%. They began declining since the beginning of 2021. There were many reasons for the growth last year like informal remittance channels being closed due to the lockdown and workers increasing their remittances through formal channels. Further, workers who were terminated would have got lump sums as terminal benefits which were remitted, while another reason would have been the reluctance of returnees to carry cash as they had to be quarantined on arrival.
Commentary: Labour Markets and Education
Ms Madhavie Gunawardena
The COVID-19 pandemic has flagged the need for Sri Lanka to revisit its labour laws and regulations. Since the labour market was forced to accept work from home (WFH), accommodating flexibility in labour legislation and other legislation governing the workplace is essential. Accommodating flexible working practices is important, especially for women, as this allows them to balance their family and work responsibilities, thus retaining them in the labour force. With prolonged school closures, there is currently no way of improving the students’ soft skills as extra-curricular and co-curricular activities were halted. This will affect their employability in the future.
Commentary: Migration and Health
Dr Kolitha Wickramage
In the migration sector, future policy decisions should take into consideration factors such as the gender dimension of returnees and skills requirements of migrant workers as well. Psychosocial health and mental health are extremely important for the reintegration package since this is still an unmet agenda. Even though the overall vaccination process including vaccination for migrant workers in Sri Lanka is appreciable, the number of deaths and serious cases can be averted if a more systematic strategy such as those provided by WHO Sage recommendations were followed. The IPS State of the Economy report must be commended for recognising the need to address psychosocial issues of migrants, in addition to their social and economic issues.
Business
Political risks to Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring agreement recede: Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings Hong Kong says that the Sri Lankan authorities’ confirmation that they endorse the targets set under the country’s IMF programme, and intend to implement debt restructuring based on the terms agreed with international sovereign bondholders in September, reduces risks to the debt treatment process associated with the outcome of the presidential election on 21 September.
The election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, of the opposition Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), as president in September had increased policy uncertainty, raising the risk that the government could launch challenges to key elements of the IMF programme, potentially delaying Sri Lanka’s foreign currency debt restructuring. However, the Ministry of Finance announced on 4 October that consultations with the IMF and Sri Lanka’s Official Credit Committee had been successfully concluded, suggesting that any policy changes are unlikely to threaten the IMF programme or the debt treatment agreement-in principle reached under the previous administration.
The Ministry also indicated that the consultation had agreed that the preliminary agreement adhered to the principle of comparability of treatment between official creditors and bondholders, and was compatible with the IMF programme’s terms.
” We view this as a positive sign for the restructuring process’s prospects. Fitch has rated Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘RD’ (Restricted Default) since May 2022, and the government is not currently servicing its foreign-currency debt. We may move the IDR out of ‘RD’ upon the sovereign’s completion of a commercial debt restructuring that we judge to have normalised the relationship with the international financial community. Sri Lanka’s postdefault rating would depend upon our assessment of its credit profile. Fitch upgraded Sri Lanka’s LongTerm Local-Currency IDR to ‘CCC-‘ in September 2023, reflecting the completion of the local-currency portion of Sri Lanka’s domestic debt optimisation plan. We expect Sri Lanka’s government debt to remain relatively high, even if debt restructuring is completed successfully along the lines laid out in the agreements with its creditors,” Fitch says.
“The IMF forecasts Sri Lanka’s gross general government debt/GDP ratio to decline only gradually to about 103% of GDP by 2028, from about 116% in 2022, after building in a local- and foreign-currency debt restructuring. The government’s revenue/GDP ratio remains low, but the effects of several revenue-raising measures passed since May 2022 are beginning to be felt. Revenue collection in 7M24 rose by about 43% yoy, well above the nominal GDP growth rate of 9.5% in 1H24. Our baseline projections assume an increase in revenue/GDP, from 11.4% in 2023 to 15.5% in 2026, reflecting the measures already in place. However, these forecasts could be affected, if the new government introduces fiscal reforms. The IMF programme’s targets offer some flexibility for changes in the government’s fiscal policy approach.
‘The president’s capacity to push through policy changes may depend partly on the outcome of the parliamentary election on 14 November. The JVP and its allies had relatively few seats in the outgoing legislature, though the trends evident in the recent presidential election suggest that there will probably be large changes in the make-up of the new chamber.
‘The economy more broadly remains on a recovering trend. Real GDP growth was 5.0% yoy in 1H24, after contracting by 7.3% during 1H23. We expect the economy to expand by 3.9% in 2024 and to average growth of 3.6% over 2025-2026. External liquidity stresses have also eased, with foreign-exchange reserves hitting USD6.0 billion in August 2024, up almost 66% yoy. Nevertheless, the speed of the recovery in reserves is likely to be set back when Sri Lanka resumes external debt-service payments,” Fitch notes.
Business
Rotary fights breast cancer with NCCP through early detection and prevention
October is Breast Cancer Awareness Month—a time to come together not only to acknowledge a disease that affects millions but to celebrate the resilience of women and the power of early detection to save lives.With a long-standing partnership of 20 years with the National Cancer Control Programme, Rotary Club of Colombo members came out in their numbers to create awareness and joined the recent NCCP Breast Cancer Awareness Walk on October 2nd.
It is a time to reaffirm our collective responsibility toward the well-being of our mothers, sisters and daughters and those thousands of women who may one day be struck down by this disease if not detected early.
Rotary has been a beacon of hope in the fight against breast cancer, working hand-in-hand with the Ministry of Health for 20 years since 2004. This partnership with the National Cancer Control Programme has been instrumental in addressing breast cancer, which remains the leading cause of death among women aged 40 to 55 years.
Rotary’s journey began 20 years ago with the sole focus on screening and early detection and prevention to fight the rising incidence of cancer. Together with NCCP they set up a dedicated Cancer Screening and Early Detection Centre focused on breast cancer, first in Colombo and then extended to other cities to ensure no woman is left behind. These regional Breast Cancer Early Detection Clinics will bring lifesaving services closer to those who need them most.
Rotary Club of Colombo has led the way in the screening and early detection of breast cancer and invested in state-of-the-art technology at the main Cancer Early Detection Centre in Narahenpita run by NCCP, including installing a 3D tomosynthesis Digital Mammography Machine. This machine provides highly accurate screenings for breast cancer, five days a week, entirely free of charge. This represents Rotary’s unwavering commitment to ensuring early detection, which is key to improving breast cancer survival rates.
Rotary Club of Colombo was also a pioneer in introducing HPV DNA testing at the Centre for cervical cancer screening —an initiative that highlights their approach to tackling women’s cancers holistically.
Business
Pepsi® unveils its new logo with street art murals in Sri Lanka
Honouring its 125 years long legacy, Pepsi®, a brand that has been at the center of global pop culture, unveiled its new identity in Sri Lanka through its groundbreaking campaign, ‘Pepsi® Street Kala’. The ‘Pepsi® Street Kala’ campaign represents a groundbreaking moment for the brand, introducing its revamped brand identity through public art for the first time globally. With 17 murals featured across the country, this initiative is an attempt to democratize art through dynamic experiences that invite public interaction and make art and culture more accessible.
Pepsi® celebrated this milestone with a spectacular launch event at the iconic Lotus Tower – South Asia’s tallest self-supported tower. The event brought its bold identity to life through immersive experiences, captivating the audience from start to finish. Media, influencers and individuals from the art community in Sri Lanka enjoyed a sensory feast, with the aura of Pepsi® resonating throughout, showcasing the brand’s vibrant spirit. The highlight of the evening was the illumination of the Lotus Tower in Colombo with Pepsi®’s new bold colors, transforming the city’s skyline.
Speaking on the launch, Anuj Goyal, Associate Director, Area-Countries Region, PepsiCo said, “Pepsi has consistently been at the forefront of youth culture and with this initiative, we are extending that dedication to the streets of Sri Lanka. The new Pepsi logo represents a bold new chapter for Pepsi, bringing it to life through street art with the ‘Pepsi® Street Kala’ campaign – enabling us to expand the horizons of visual narrative. The grand launch event, including the striking projection of our brand colors at the iconic Lotus Tower and the murals altogether, are a celebration of youth, creativity, and the spirit of Pepsi.”
Also commenting on the launch, Sandeep Kumar, Country Head at Varun Beverages Limited (VBL) – Sri Lanka also added, “We are excited to bring the ‘Pepsi® Street Kala’ campaign to life in Sri Lanka, showcasing the refreshed brand identity of Pepsi. This campaign and today’s event celebrates creativity, culture, and the unbreakable bond Pepsi shares with the people of Sri Lanka. We’re proud to be part of this milestone that reflects the vibrant energy of the Pepsi consumers, while integrating public art experiences in their routine commute.”
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