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Russia-Ukraine conflict: Economic implications for Sri Lanka

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By Asanka Wijesinghe

The Russian invasion of Ukraine deepens the existing global economic woes – persistent supply chain bottlenecks and associated rising inflation – clouding the prospects of a smooth global economic recovery from the pandemic. The West, led by the US and the EU, swiftly imposed strict economic sanctions, targetting Russian banks, oligarchs, political leaders, and state-owned and private entities, generating additional uncertainty over the global economic outlook. The initial disunity in the West on cutting off Russia from SWIFT-a global financial telecommunication system that allows the smooth and rapid cross-border transaction of money- was resolved over the weekend. Such a move will inevitably make payments for Russian exports and imports hard. The ongoing military conflict in Europe could not have come at a worse time for Sri Lanka given its own prevailing high inflation, rising energy costs, and scarcity of foreign exchange. Against this backdrop, this article discusses the economic impact of the European conflict on Sri Lanka, the sectors that will be hit hard, and ways to mitigate the negative impact.

Global Economic Impact

Immediately after the Russian invasion on 24 February, commodity markets rallied up. The Brent spot price of a crude oil barrel reached USD 105 for the first time after 2014. Similarly, the cost of wheat futures for March 2022 in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) exchange peaked, at its highest since mid-2008 (Figure 1). The Russian Federation and Ukraine-known as Europe’s breadbasket- are major cereal, fertiliser, critical minerals, and iron and steel exporters. Meanwhile, the Western powers were busy over the weekend in negotiations to tighten sanctions on Russia.

While the fate of Ukraine hangs in the balance, the consensus among analysts is that the Ukrainians were mounting a fierce and unexpected resistance, effectively increasing the costs for Russia. The US, EU and their allies are contributing to the military conflict by providing financial and military assistance to Ukraine while imposing sanctions on Russia to make dollar transactions difficult. Thus, the severity of the global economic impact will be determined by the scope and duration of the conflict and the effectiveness of Western sanctions.

Western countries will be keen to minimise the spillover effects of sanctions on their economies. Like Germany, the major European economies heavily depend on Russian energy, making it necessary to exempt the energy sector from sanctions. Indeed, the sanctions package unveiled by the Biden administration did not target the energy sector. As long as payments for energy-related transactions go through non-sanctioned and non-US financial institutions, an unconstrained flow of money is guaranteed. Thus, oil prices dropped with futures closing below USD 93 a barrel in New York. However, that optimism was largely fading in early trade on 28 February. The Brent price rallied over 100 dollars again while wheat, soybean, and corn futures were up. Cutting off Russia from SWIFT and imposing sanctions on the Russian Central Bank can deal a severe blow to the Russian economy in the long run. The collapsing ruble can be a harbinger of Russia’s economic collapse. A possible economic fallout will reduce Russian demand for foreign products, and if Russia cuts off natural gas to the European market, a likely outcome will be a recession.

Implications for Sri Lanka

Overall, Russia and Ukraine account for 2% of Sri Lanka’s imports and 2.2% of exports in 2020. However, both countries are vital import sources for wheat and export destinations for Sri Lanka’s black tea (Figure 2 and 3). Russia and Ukraine purchase about 18% of fermented black tea (>3kg) exported by Sri Lanka. Similarly, 45% of Sri Lanka’s wheat imports are sourced from Russia and Ukraine. In addition, more than half of Sri Lanka’s imported soybeans, sunflower oil and seeds, and peas are from Ukraine. Moreover, Russia and Ukraine are significant import sources for asbestos, semi-finished products of iron and steel, copper (cathodes), and potassium chloride for fertiliser.

Unless the Ukraine crisis is not solved immediately, the fuel and commodity prices can rally further. The inflationary pressure in the Western markets, especially in Europe due to high energy prices and supply chain bottlenecks, may reduce consumers purchasing power, lowering the demand for goods exported by Sri Lanka. Europe is a significant export destination for readymade garments, tea and spices, and seafood.

There is also a growing tendency for increased military expenditure in the long run, which might reduce the “peace dividends” for European households. For example, the German Chancellor committed 2% of GDP for defence expenditure, addressing an extraordinary session of Bundestag. Replacing consumerism with militarism will adversely affect countries like Sri Lanka that depend on the European export market. In addition, a prolonged crisis may impede Sri Lanka’s ability to purchase necessary raw materials like fertiliser. Importantly, Sri Lanka’s exposure to the situation is mainly through linkages to the commodity and European export markets rather than direct exposure to the two countries involved in the conflict.

Mitigation

Sri Lanka should focus on safeguarding access to vital raw materials and food commodities. Globally, responding to the crisis, countries are stockpiling grain and exploring alternative ways to do business with Russia in purchasing raw materials. Sri Lanka has limited options to mitigate the impact on already deteriorating food security conditions and access to raw materials. As wheat and rice are substitutes, high wheat prices may increase the demand for rice.

Thus, it is necessary to remove input shortages like fertiliser to ensure domestic production is adequate. Due to the current foreign exchange crisis, Sri Lanka’s ability to effectively face such shocks is constrained. Thus, the urgent priority is to resolve the current foreign exchange crisis to regain the ability to trade swiftly. Achieving debt sustainability and securing dollar inflows from multilateral institutes might be the options at Sri Lanka’s disposal. Then, entering forward contracts for raw materials and fuel and negotiations with friendly countries for food on predetermined prices are possibilities.

Link to Talking Economics blog:

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Economic Implications for Sri Lanka

Asanka Wijesinghe is a Research Fellow at IPS with research interests in macroeconomic policy, international trade, labour and health economics. He holds a BSc in Agricultural Technology and Management from the University of Peradeniya, an MS in Agribusiness and Applied Economics from North Dakota State University, and an MS and PhD in Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics from The Ohio State University. (Talk with Asanka – asanka@ips.lk)



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“RDB Drives Unprecedented Growth with Record Profits Fueling Expansion and Development Impact” 

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The Regional Development Bank (RDB) delivered an exceptional financial performance for the year ended 31 December 2025, recording an 86% year-on-year increase in Profit After Tax to LKR 2.37 billion. The Bank’s total income reached LKR 42.81 billion, driven by a 23.89% growth in Net Interest Income to LKR 24.23 billion, complemented by steady contributions from both interest and fee-based income streams. This performance highlights the Bank’s ability to optimise its asset base while sustaining a well-diversified and resilient revenue profile.

Marking its 40th anniversary in 2025, the Bank’s exemplary performance underscores the strength of its resilient operating model, disciplined execution, and its growing role as a catalyst for inclusive economic progress in Sri Lanka. Profitability metrics strengthened notably, with Return on Assets (ROA) improving to 1.70% and Return on Equity (ROE) increasing to 11.77%, demonstrating enhanced efficiency in capital deployment and earnings generation.

Commenting on the Bank’s performance, Chairman Lasantha Fernando stated,

“Our performance in 2025 reflects the strength of a purpose-driven banking model that successfully balances financial sustainability with national development priorities. As Sri Lanka progresses on its path to recovery, our commitment to enabling inclusive growth remains unwavering.”

The Bank continued to expand its development-focused lending portfolio, with loans and receivables growing by 23.59% to LKR 302.54 billion. This growth supported priority sectors including agriculture, SMEs, manufacturing, housing, and rural enterprises representing segments critical to national economic revitalisation. Importantly, this expansion was achieved alongside improved asset quality, with the Stage 3 impaired loans ratio declining to 4.06% from 6.25%, demonstrating robust credit risk management and effective recovery strategies.

Customer confidence remained strong, with deposits increasing by 11.85% to LKR 283.72 billion, driven by growth in both savings and fixed deposits. The Bank also maintained liquidity ratios well above regulatory thresholds, reinforcing its financial stability and resilience

Asanga Tennakoon General Manager/Chief Executive Officer, highlighted” last year’s results underscore the impact of disciplined execution, prudent risk management, and a strong customer-centric approach. Looking ahead, we will continue to expand our reach, strengthen digital capabilities, and deepen financial inclusion to create sustainable value for all stakeholders.”

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SLIC Life and SLIC General Create New Employment Opportunities

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New Trainee Insurance Assistants receiving their appointment letters from (L-R) Nalin Subasinghe (CEO of SLICLL), Nusith Kumaratunga (Chairman of SLIC) and Dr. Sameera Dharmasena (CEO of SLICGL

Sri Lanka Insurance Life Ltd (SLICLL) and Sri Lanka Insurance General Ltd (SLICGL) together appointed 112 Trainee Insurance Assistants, marking one of the largest recruitments across both companies in recent years.

Of the total intake, 87 candidates joined SLICGL while 25 candidates were appointed to SLICLL. This recruitment reflects the continued efforts of both companies to strengthen their workforce while contributing to employment opportunities.

The recruitment process was conducted through a structured and independent evaluation framework to ensure transparency and merit-based selection. Applications were invited from eligible candidates island-wide, followed by a written examination. Candidates who met the required benchmarks were shortlisted for interviews conducted by an independent panel, reinforcing fairness and credibility throughout the process.

The newly appointed Trainee Insurance Assistants represent a diverse and capable talent pool. Approximately 30% of the recruits are graduates, while all candidates possess the required academic qualifications, including G.C.E. Ordinary Level and Advanced Level certifications, or equivalent diplomas and higher qualifications.

This intake is aligned with the long-term focus of SLICLL and SLICGL on developing human capital and nurturing future-ready professionals within the insurance industry. The new recruits will have access to structured career growth opportunities, enabling them to build sustainable careers within the organisations. Efforts have also been made to assign employees to locations closest to their places of residence, subject to operational requirements, ensuring both efficiency and employee convenience.

Commenting on the appointments, Nusith Kumaratunga, Chairman of Sri Lanka Insurance stated, “The onboarding of this new group of Trainee Insurance Assistants reflected our continued focus on building strong and capable teams across both SLICLL and SLICGL. By maintaining a transparent and merit-based selection process, we remained committed to creating opportunities for talented individuals while strengthening the foundations for long-term organisational growth. This initiative also aligned with our broader role in supporting employment generation and contributing to the country’s economic progress.”

The official appointment ceremony was held on 7th April 2026 at the SLIC Head Office, in the presence of the Chairman and the Corporate Management of SLICLL and SLICGL, marking an important milestone in the organisations’ ongoing people development journey.

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99x Wins Five Awards at Best Management Practices Awards ‘26, Showcasing AI-led Transformation

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Team 99x winning the Overall Gold Award at the CPM Best Management Practices Awards 2026

99x, a leading global product engineering company, has secured five major accolades at the CPM Best Management Practices Awards 2026, including an Overall Gold Award, positioning the company among Sri Lanka’s top-performing organisations in management excellence. The company was also recognised as the Sector Winner for IT, Software & BPO Services, named among the Forty Outstanding Companies, and received the Best Management Practices Excellence Award. In addition, Hasith Yaggahavita, CEO of 99x, was honoured with the Leadership Excellence Award, acknowledging his role in driving the organisation’s AI-led transformation.

The recognition was awarded for 99x’s submission titled ‘Embracing AI: Rethinking Talent, Products & Services,’ which addressed one of the most pressing shifts facing the global technology services industry today. As AI continues to redefine how software is built and delivered, traditional outsourcing models are being challenged from reduced reliance on large engineering teams to a growing shift toward outcome-based delivery and faster go-to-market expectations.

Chatura De Silva, Chief AI Officer at 99x, stated, “Winning five awards at one stage is a proud moment for us as a team. While AI is driving change across the industry, what made this possible is how we chose to adapt to it. We recognised that AI is not just a layer on top of what we do, but that it changes the foundation of how value is created. This transformation was about connecting both our talent and delivery, while embedding AI across everything we do”.

Selected from over 150 award submissions, 99x was also among the top 10 organisations invited to present its journey at the CPM Management Insights Summit 2026, placing its transformation on a national stage among the country’s most forward-thinking enterprises. Chatura De Silva, Kalana Wijesekara, Chief Developer Experience Officer and Chrishan de Mel, Chief Marketing and Corporate Affairs Officer, presented 99x’s story.

Commenting on the significance of this year’s awards, Dilshan Arsakularathna, CEO of The Institute of Chartered Professional Managers of Sri Lanka, stated, “99x securing the Overall Gold Award among organisations across multiple industries reflects the level at which Sri Lanka’s IT sector is progressing today. It demonstrates how companies are building real capability and driving innovation that can confidently stand on a global stage. Notably, 99x has now become the first organisation to secure the Overall Gold Award twice across the five editions of the BMPC Awards. This remarkable achievement reflects their strong commitment to sustaining excellence and continuously embedding best management practices within their operations. What stood out with 99x was how they have adapted to change in a practical and forward-thinking manner, reshaping how they operate and deliver value, while setting a compelling benchmark for modern management practices.”

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