Sri Lanka’s digital retail payments are poised for remarkable expansion, with the potential to reach up to Rs 77.2 trillion by 2027, according to analysis by Robocash Sri Lanka. This represents a substantial 128 percent increase from the 2022 level. The optimistic forecast by the company is contingent on the assumption that all major macroeconomic indicators will achieve equilibrium or exhibit stable positive trends over 12 quarters, commencing in 2024.

Robocash is a financial group of companies providing robotic financial services in the field of alternative lending and marketplace funding.In a less favourable long-term scenario, the company anticipates that the total volume of digital retail payments in Sri Lanka will still reach Rs 43.94 trillion by 2027, reflecting a 30 percent increase from the 2022 level.

Sri Lanka is known for its high rate of citizens with active bank accounts and is currently witnessing a burgeoning fintech expansion, displaying resilience even in the face of economic challenges. As of 2022, approximately 90 percent of the population holds active bank accounts, with an impressive 18.7 million debit cards in circulation. This has resulted in an outstanding 85 percent debit card usage rate, surpassing the global average of 51 percent.

However, the utilization of credit cards in Sri Lanka stands at 10 percent, slightly below the global average of 22 percent. Nonetheless, this trend bodes well for Sri Lanka’s fintech market, illustrating its potential for growth even in challenging economic conditions.

As of early 2023, Sri Lanka has made significant strides in embracing digitalization, boasting 14.6 million internet users and 7.2 million active social media users. The country’s digital literacy rate, on par with developed European Union (EU) countries at 57 percent, underscores the strong digital skills among its adult population.

The e-commerce sector in Sri Lanka is flourishing, with 5.5 million users and a market value of Rs.777.6 billion (US$ 2.4 billion) in 2023, primarily driven by the electronics segment. The e-commerce market is projected to maintain an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.29 percent from 2023 to 2027, reaching a market volume of Rs 1,387.52 billion (US$ 4.28 billion) by 2027.

Amid the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, digital payments in Sri Lanka have seen substantial growth, with transactions surging from Rs 5.6 trillion in 1Q2021 to Rs 9.4 trillion in 1Q2023, marking a 68 percent growth rate over two years. The value of transactions via the Lanka QR digital payment gateway reached Rs. 681 million in 3Q2023, demonstrating an 84 percent year-on-year growth.

Both the Sri Lankan government and the private sector have been instrumental in promoting digital payments, playing pivotal roles in enhancing digital payment solutions and fostering financial inclusion.

In the coming years, Sri Lanka plans to implement a Digital Government initiative aimed at streamlining digital identification and document digitization. This initiative is expected to significantly facilitate electronic Know Your Customer (eKYC) for digital service providers and further boost fintech penetration.

Despite recent economic challenges, Sri Lanka’s fintech sector remains optimistic. The number of digital payment users is projected to reach 10 million by 2027, with a projected transaction value of Rs. 4,481.32 billion (US$ 13.83 billion), growing at a CAGR of 20.54 percent.

Mobile point-of-sale (POS) payments are expected to dominate, with 3.2 million users and a transaction value of Rs 2,342.16 billion (USD 7.24 billion). Additionally, the Digital Assets segment is on track to reach Rs. 3,978 million (US$ 12.25 million) in 2023, with a remarkable 56.5 percent revenue growth projected for 2024.

However, it’s important to acknowledge that Sri Lanka’s economy faces challenges, including high public debt, inflation risks, and limited foreign investments. The nation’s economic recovery hinges on structural reforms and political stability.