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Relief package supports Sri Lanka’s economic recovery but compounds government’s fiscal challenge, says Moody’s

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On 3 January, Sri Lanka’s government announced a fiscal relief package worth LKR229 billion ($1 billion, 1.6% of our 2022 GDP forecast) to support the economy and alleviate the impact of higher consumer prices on low-income households.

While the size of the package is moderate and will be fully funded via reallocations from the budget (6% of budget expenditure in 2022), it reduces the scope for fiscal and debt consolidation at a time when fiscal flexibility is already severely limited by the large share of interest payments in government revenue (60-70%).

Funding the package with reallocations from the budget in part reflects this limited fiscal space, which constrains the government’s ability to use fiscal policy to mitigate the impact of economic shocks.

Furthermore, the risk of fiscal slippage has increased with the emergence of the omicron variant of the coronavirus. Some countries have tightened activity and travel restrictions, and any reintroduction of measures domestically or a delay in the recovery of Sri Lanka’s tourism sector would intensify fiscal and external pressures.

Key features of the relief package include cash handouts of LKR1,000 to citizens receiving income support, agricultural subsidies, the removal of certain taxes on food and medicine and an increase in public-sector salaries (LKR5,000 a month from January). Such measures would support domestic demand and the economic recovery as surging prices – particularly for food – stemming from global supply chain-related disruptions and some import restrictions over 2020-21 reduce the purchasing power of households. Consumer price inflation rose to 8.3% year-over-year in October 2021 and accelerated to more than 11% in November, with food prices surging by 17%

We expect inflation-adjusted real GDP growth to pick up to around 5% in 2022 from around 4-5% in 2021, in part because of a lower base and because domestic economic activity has largely normalised, with international borders open to vaccinated tourists since October 2021. However, risks remain as the new omicron variant of the coronavirus could delay such a recovery, and several countries have reversed their easing of travel restrictions. Should such risks materialise, the recovery in government revenue would likely be delayed beyond our assumptions, with fiscal and debt metrics remaining very weak for longer.

We forecast that the fiscal deficit will narrow only slightly to around 9-10% of GDP in 2022 from around 11% in 2021, mainly reflecting our expectation for lower revenue growth than the budget envisages. Wide deficits will keep the government’s debt burden at higher levels for some time; we estimate that the debt burden will rise to around 108% of GDP by the end of 2022 from around 101% at the end of 2020 and 87% at the end of 2019, before stabilising at the elevated 2022 level thereafter, mainly reflecting the recovery in nominal GDP growth. Such levels are significantly above the Caa median and much higher than the government’s medium-term target of around 75% in 2025n addition, a delay in the recovery of tourism receipts would weigh on Sri Lanka’s precarious external liquidity position.

As of November 2021, the country had $1 billion in foreign-exchange reserves (which in our definition excludes gold and Special Drawing Rights), covering less than one month of imports. While the central bank indicated that reserves had risen as of the end of December with the disbursement of a $1.5 billion swap agreement with the People’s Bank of China, reserves adequacy remains very weak, with reserves at around $2-3 billion compared with $5-6 billion of foreign-currency obligations due annually through at least 2025.



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Why Sri Lanka’s new environmental penalties could redraw the Economics of Growth

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Kapila Mahesh Rajapaksha: Environmental protection, part of national productivity

For decades, environmental crime in Sri Lanka has been cheap.

Polluters paid fines that barely registered on balance sheets, violations dragged through courts and the real costs — poisoned waterways, degraded land, public health damage — were quietly transferred to the public. That arithmetic, long tolerated, is now being challenged by a proposed overhaul of the country’s environmental penalty regime.

At the centre of this shift is the Central Environmental Authority (CEA), which is seeking to modernise the National Environmental Act, raising penalties, tightening enforcement and reframing environmental compliance as an economic — not merely regulatory — issue.

“Environmental protection can no longer be treated as a peripheral concern. It is directly linked to national productivity, public health expenditure and investor confidence, CEA Director General Kapila Mahesh Rajapaksha told The Island Financial Review. “The revised penalty framework is intended to ensure that the cost of non-compliance is no longer cheaper than compliance itself.”

Under the existing law, many pollution-related offences attract fines so modest that they have functioned less as deterrents than as operating expenses. In economic terms, they created a perverse incentive: pollute first, litigate later, pay little — if at all.

The proposed amendments aim to reverse this logic. Draft provisions increase fines for air, water and noise pollution to levels running into hundreds of thousands — and potentially up to Rs. 1 million — per offence, with additional daily penalties for continuing violations. Some offences are also set to become cognisable, enabling faster enforcement action.

“This is about correcting a market failure, Rajapaksha said. “When environmental damage is not properly priced, the economy absorbs hidden losses — through healthcare costs, disaster mitigation, water treatment and loss of livelihoods.”

Those losses are not theoretical. Pollution-linked illnesses increase public healthcare spending. Industrial contamination damages agricultural output. Environmental degradation weakens tourism and raises disaster-response costs — all while eroding Sri Lanka’s natural capital.

Economists increasingly argue that weak environmental enforcement has acted as an implicit subsidy to polluting industries, distorting competition and discouraging investment in cleaner technologies.

The new penalty regime, by contrast, signals a shift towards cost internalisation — forcing businesses to account for environmental risk as part of their operating model.

The reforms arrive at a time when global capital is becoming more selective. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) benchmarks are now embedded in lending, insurance and trade access. Countries perceived as weak on enforcement face higher financing costs and shrinking market access.

“A transparent and credible environmental regulatory system actually reduces investment risk, Rajapaksha noted. “Serious investors want predictability — not regulatory arbitrage that collapses under public pressure or litigation.”

For Sri Lanka, the implications are significant. Stronger enforcement could help align the country with international supply-chain standards, particularly in manufacturing, agribusiness and tourism — sectors where environmental compliance increasingly determines competitiveness.

Business groups are expected to raise concerns about compliance costs, particularly for small and medium-scale enterprises. The CEA insists the objective is not to shut down industry but to shift behaviour.

“This is not an anti-growth agenda, Rajapaksha said. “It is about ensuring growth does not cannibalise the very resources it depends on.”

In the longer term, stricter penalties may stimulate demand for environmental services — monitoring, waste management, clean technology, compliance auditing — creating new economic activity and skilled employment.

Yet legislation alone will not suffice. Sri Lanka’s environmental laws have historically suffered from weak enforcement, delayed prosecutions and institutional bottlenecks. Without consistent application, higher penalties risk remaining symbolic.

The CEA says reforms will be accompanied by improved monitoring, digitalised approval systems and closer coordination with enforcement agencies.

By Ifham Nizam

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Milinda Moragoda meets with Gautam Adani

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Milinda Moragoda, Founder of the Pathfinder Foundation, who was in New Delhi to participate at the 4th India-Japan Forum, met with Gautam Adani, Chairman of Adani Group.

Adani Group recently announced that they will invest US$75 billion in the energy transition over the next 5 years. They will also be investing $5 billion in Google’s AI data center in India.Milinda Moragoda,

Milinda Moragoda, was invited by India’s Ministry of External Affairs and the Ananta Centre to participate in the 4th India–Japan Forum, held recently in New Delhi. In his presentation, he proposed that India consider taking the lead in a post-disaster reconstruction and recovery initiative for Sri Lanka, with Japan serving as a strategic partner in this effort. The forum itself covered a broad range of issues related to India–Japan cooperation, including economic security, semiconductors, trade, nuclear power, digitalization, strategic minerals, and investment.

The India-Japan Forum provides a platform for Indian and Japanese leaders to shape the future of bilateral and strategic partnerships through deliberation and collaboration. The forum is convened by the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, and the Anantha Centre.

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HNB Assurance welcomes 2026 with strong momentum towards 10 in 5

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Lasitha Wimalaratne – Executive Director / CEO, HNB Assurance.

HNB Assurance enters 2026 with renewed purpose and clear ambition as it moves into a defining phase of its 10 in 5 strategic journey. With the final leg toward achieving a 10% life insurance market share by 2026 now in focus, the company is gearing up for a year of transformation, innovation, and accelerated growth.

Closing 2025 on a strong note, HNB Assurance delivered outstanding results, continuously achieving growth above the industry average while strengthening its people, partnerships and brand. Industry awards, other achievements, and continued customer trust reflect the company’s strong performance and ongoing commitment to providing meaningful protection solutions for all Sri Lankans.

Commenting on the year ahead, Lasitha Wimalarathne, Executive Director / Chief Executive Officer of HNB Assurance, stated, “Guided by our 2026 theme, ‘Reimagine. Reinvent. Redefine.’, we are setting our sights beyond convention. Our aim is to reimagine what is possible for the life insurance industry, for our customers, and for the communities we serve, while laying a strong foundation for the next 25 years as a trusted life insurance partner in Sri Lanka. This year, we also celebrate 25 years of HNB Assurance, a milestone that is special in itself and a testament to the trust and support of our customers, partners and people. For us, success is not defined solely by financial performance. It is measured by the trust we earn, the promises we honor, the lives we protect, and the positive impact we create for all our stakeholders. Our ambition is clear, to be a top-tier life insurance company that sets benchmarks in customer experience, professionalism and people development.”

For HNB Assurance looking back at a year of progress and recognition, the collective efforts of the team have created a strong momentum for the year ahead.

“The progress we have made gives us strong confidence as we enter the final phase of our 10 in 5 journey. Being recognized as the Best Life Insurance Company at the Global Brand Awards 2025, receiving the National-level Silver Award for Local Market Reach and the Insurance Sector Gold Award at the National Business Excellence Awards, and being named Best Life Bancassurance Provider in Sri Lanka for the fifth consecutive year by the Global Banking and Finance Review, UK, reflect the consistency of our performance, the strength of our strategy, along with the passion, and commitment of our people.”

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