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‘Reflections on the Continuing Crises of Post-War Sri Lanka’

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The Institute of International Studies(IIS) recently published a volume, ‘Reflections on The Continuing Crises of Post-War Sr Lanka’ edited by Professors Amal Jayawardena and Gamini Keerwella. Delivering the keynote address, at its launch on 24 April, at the BMICH, former Foreign Secretary, H. M. G. S. Palihakkara reflected on the context and substance of the publication with particular reference to the challenge before the NPP government to convert the voter support it received into a public policy consensus essential to addressing multiple issues of statecraft at hand.

 Excerpts:

We are at a juncture of profound change happening nationally as well as internationally – changes that seem to engender a mixed bag of imponderables and great worry, even danger. While many contend that these changes upend globalised advancement, portend uncertainty and unpredictability, some good is seen by others in that certain disruptions could lead to pathways for course corrections. While this obviously divisive and controversial discourse goes on, what is clear and present is that it’s a world where affairs within and between states are in flux. Some of our neighbourhood commentators put it as a ‘world adrift’ or a world ‘getting unhinged’. The description of this volatility and prescriptions for handling the vortex of churning issues may defy objective analysis but the stark reality is that it represents an unprecedented and defining challenge to the post World War international system or the so-called ‘rules -based order’.

Head winds and tail winds of this flux have begun to manifest with different intensity in different countries constraining their space and capacity to grow sustainably and live securely. For some, the situation may morph into existential issues. Sri Lanka’s case lies somewhere in between it looks, but there is no denying that all will be profoundly affected-especially so for countries like us that are struggling to transit from crisis-recovery stability to a sustainable growth scenario. They are obliged to do this while juggling as prudently as possible, attendant geopolitical conundrums thrown up by the competing interests of power players, leading to difficult and often futile attempt to balance the unbalanceable!

At the national level, a new government of former ‘armed struggle fame’ has assumed office promising constructive change, clean and accountable governance based on the idea of reconciliation and equal citizenship for all. This was a hitherto unseen national common ground crafted by the voters(north-south-east-west) – voters fatigued with corrupt stereo-types. They did so, asking the new government to deliver on this attractive and perhaps the most inclusive post conflict mandate yet.

But the government seems to remain somewhat overwhelmed with this exciting but daunting agenda of public policy making and governance. Challenges include dovetailing the currently apparent economic stability into a growth conducive one; preventing a double jeopardy of economic crisis pain morphing into reform pain; doing all that without falling prey to grinding strategic matrixes of our ‘geopolitical friends’; dealing with some of our closest friends who come bearing gifts like distress money and un-solicited power play advice; how to negotiate with them without simply signing onto their wish lists that seek to requisition our sovereign assets thus leaving little or no room to negotiate even as unequals, let alone as sovereign equals!

To add to these woes of the new government, the incumbency factor seems to be setting in as evidenced by some ham-handed handling of delicate issues both domestic and international.

In this fraught setting, the government has boldly, and one must say correctly, decided to go for local polls. This is obviously not a regime change election but it certainly is a regime test one. The losers at the last elections both big and small, seem to have found common cause in firing the first salvos of the government ‘toppling game’ even as they know very well there is no constitutional way to do regime change for the next five years. The Government, on its part has not done itself any favours by scoring rather heavy in clumsiness index. Waffling continues uncomfortably on several fronts critical to public policy issues of national and international significance.

So this is a daunting inventory of domestic things to do in an international system that has turned volatile- a system in which an oxymoronic situation had long persisted because the alleged ‘ rules-based order‘ continued to be confronted by the reality of power-based practice. As we all know, when in contention, power usually trumps the rules. It happens so often it has become quite a ‘convenient truth’! The crudest and what could even be the most dangerous form of this contradiction is peaking now thanks to the phenomenon known as the Trump Two.

The book ‘Reflections on the Continuing Crises of Post-War Sri Lanka.’, helps us introspect in a context where the country is striving -in fact struggling- to recover from multiple self-made crises and become a self-caring nation under a new but un-tested Government-obviously, a timely thing to do.

Well researched and well sourced work in this volume explore an array of considerations both in empirical and conceptual terms as to how and why , after ending the armed conflict, conflicts by other means have continued spawning multiple crises- occurring in almost regular succession-and in diverse domains e.g. governance, socio-economic, ethnic and religious harmony, political, security, foreign policy and so on.

The purpose here is a comment in the form of my take on what this volume presents to the policy community-both political and bureaucratic:

First, it gives out a yet another alarming read-out of the cost of successive leadership failures in this country- failure to ensure constitutional governance, sustainable and equitable economic growth, reconciliation, accountability, the rule of law and so on. It reminds me of a meeting thirteen years ago, which I had the honour to chair in this very Hall at the BCIS, remembering the late legal legend, HL de Silva.

There my observation was that:

” The diminishing respect for the rule of law diminishes us all. Such erosion will allow impunity to raise its ugly head. Usually, impunity signals the onset of decay. It impairs civilised life and democracy. And it undermines the investment climate. Conversely, the upholding of the rule of law manifestly strengthens sovereignty, pre-empts external calls for intrusive accountability, deters threats to territorial integrity of the nation and facilitates the enjoyment of fruits of citizenship and democracy by all’. http://www.island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=52289)

It is ironic but highly appropriate that the authors felt compelled to flag these same ‘reflections’ more than a decade later signifying the extent of the ‘unfinished business’ before us.

Secondly, it brings into sharp relief, the absence in this country of a culture of consensus or common ground in the business of public policy making. This contrast has remained conspicuous because the conscientious voters of this land have repeatedly braved political violence, insurgent violence and terrorist violence to grant that mandate to the elected government to do consensual work towards preventing crises and deterring conflict.

That did not happen of course. The consensual culture wished for by the voters died of political asphyxiation. This was due to the kind of parochialism our rulers have been obsessed with. There was decay in multiple fields – the economy, accountability, rule of law, national security, human security, foreign policy and so on. What is more, the contrary took root and polarisation rolled on fuelled both by those elected to power as well as by those thrown out of power. The former did so to remain in power and the latter to topple and recapture. The economy suffered. Investors ran away. The voters found they have nowhere to run.

This continues to date, even after the voters have once again shown that consensus is possible in this country. There was a country-wide consensual momentum to vote into power the current govt. who promised change to bring about accountability, the rule of law, transparent and corruption free governance and equal citizenship for all plus economic reforms. Rejecting the most, if not all corrupt stereo types and ignoring the usual ethnic and religious divides, voters rallied round a high octane call for that change. But the Govt. seems to be going about exploiting that momentum, if they are going about it at all, in the clumsiest way possible thus losing traction in turning that voter’s consensus into a public policy consensus. And not to be out-done, the losers- big and small- have got back on the usual track to begin the govt toppling game. So, the fact that the responsibility of building common ground lies not only with the government but also with the Opposition has become an inconvenient truth.

A ray of hope emerged when there was an all-party initiative to handle the unfolding ‘Tariff war’. But it looked more like a proforma reaction to a tariff drama by a bull-dozing President of a misfiring superpower, than a genuine domestic compulsion to initiate a consensual process enabling us to negotiate with our foreign interlocutors from a position of policy cohesion and bargaining strength.

This is in contrast to other countries including in South Asia that had the vision and wisdom to go consensual on critical national issues while not ruling out the option of politicians to go parochial on non-critical issues so that they can still mis-lead voters to win elections!

Faced with a looming economic crisis, the Congress – BJP agreement on economic reforms in India under PM Manmohan Singh’s watch in the 1990s paved the way for the robust growth of the Indian economic and geopolitical power today; In Bangladesh, an unprecedented bipartisan understanding on energy esp. its policy on exploiting newly discovered LNG deposits as well as a degree of self-rule to their hill tribe rebels and agreement in Nepal on mainstreaming their rebels are such contrasting examples of public policy consensus in our own sub-region.

They understood that weaponizing national issues for electoral gain can gravely undermine the welfare of the succeeding generation.

So besides these contrasting and rewarding examples and experiences in our own sub region, what is so magical about common ground and why do we have to do it?

We need a consensual economic reform programme that cannot and should not be weaponised for the purpose of regime change undermining stability and predictability , even going beyond the important gauntlet of 2028, when Sri Lanka has to resume the enormous burden of debt repayment,

Going by the Govt’s track record so far, the opposition can count on the Govt. to provide enough vulnerabilities on the non-critical list to exploit and attempt regime change! So it is irrational and irresponsible for the opposition to use imaginary or real faults so early in the game to upend the hard earned macro-economic and social stability as we prepare for the 2028 threshold.

On the geopolitical , foreign relations and governance front, one can do without the disruptive, destabilising and even dangerous contentions like the on-going one advocating that Sri Lanka should formally ‘align and economically integrate’ with its giant neighbour. That country is clearly a party to the principal geo-strategic rivalry in the Indo Pacific that is growing in complexity and intensity. Such a huge change of course for Sri Lanka could invite dangerous target practice by other power players. It would also be naïve to believe that the only way forward for Sri Lanka is a piggy back with India for a ride to economic prosperity on a trickle down basis..

It is a cogent point that it could amount to a ‘strategic capture in connectivity clothing’; that no such template has worked elsewhere in the world and Sri Lanka could thus become a non-self-governing territory where our sovereign assets may be parcelled out to strategic players jostling for power.

Both sides of this contention have overlooked the middle path imperative available for Sri Lanka. That is assiduously working to allay ill-founded or well-founded Indian security fears in a verifiable way using many bilateral tools available including the so called ‘national technical means’ while pressing ahead with equal vigour to deepen and widen ‘negotiated’ economic cooperation in identified areas – not structural integration- with our friendly neighbour. This is the way for Sri Lanka to exploit the competitive and comparative advantage it has with a robustly growing India that can benefit both countries. This is the must do thing. Any asymmetry dictated aligning or integration by momentum or wish list signing without negotiating is ‘the must avoid thing. There are many reasons for this avoidance but the latest and the most explosive one comes from Bangladesh. As a blow back to an asymmetry driven integration and autocratisation of the Hasina regime, Indo-Bangla relations exploded while Bangladesh itself imploded.

There are varying degrees of indo centric trouble in all South Asian countries except may be in Bhutan so much so that some Indian analysts themselves have characterised India’s ‘neighbourhood first policy’ as a ‘neighbourhood lost policy’.

We of course cannot afford such polemical luxury but we do need a domestic consensus to do two things:

‘Assure India about their security fears through bilateral technical means and ‘negotiate’ with India on deep-going economic cooperation. This middle path imperative backed by a bipartisan or consensual common ground will demonstrate our policy consistency and predictability towards India while providing benefits achieved by negotiated mutuality – not solely dictated by asymmetry. To be successful, this needs a domestic consensus here- across the isles of quarrelling members of the legislature- the kind of common ground the late Minister Kadirgamar strenuously worked for- the kind of acts of contrition and consensus that LLRC proposed some decades ago in order to advance post-conflict peace building.

Whether this already is a foregone conclusion or still an open question available to negotiate will become clearer when two crops of indo Lanka MOUs concluded by the former Government as well as the present one, cease to be unseen documents.

Such common understanding is needed not only to pilot our relations with our close and distant friends like India and China but also to deal with a host of other governance and foreign relations issues like accountability and reconciliation which remain externalised because the lack of a domestic understanding to deal with them has made them migrate abroad and morph into diplomatic issues entailing multiple challenges. Some past Govts unsuccessfully tried to address these challenges by actively encouraging international consensus on some of these. They did so, while being unable or unwilling to develop a national consensus on these sensitive matters despite the voters here providing robust mandates to do so. Without a national common ground, external prescriptions by themselves cannot deliver justice to victims. Every unpunished crime has an economic cost in both national and international terms. Most, if not all these failures are principally due to the paucity of a shared understanding here.

Consensus is not something you find in a cupboard! It has to be nurtured. Consensus happens not when you make everybody absolutely happy. It happens when you equitably distribute managed unhappiness among everybody. To some it is a fine art. To others it is a hard-nosed science. Perhaps it is a hybrid . Whatever it is, our voters have done it and found it. The NPP’s resounding election victory was the result. So the winner Government must mould that voters’ consensus into a public policy consensus. They can lose sometime but not too much time as windows may start closing. Policy makers – or ‘pain makers’ as some call them- must make haste slowly. If not, down the road, our succeeding generations may be compelled to launch another valuable book of reflections like this .

My friend Professor Jayadeva Uyangoda in his probing scrutiny about the causes and effects of our crises aptly refers to what he calls ‘a crucial political point’ about the “relationship between the state and society becoming violent and the capacity of the liberal parliamentary democracy to restore peace between the State and society becoming severely limited”. If our policy people don’t get the hybrid our voters have found, it is most likely that the next ‘reflection book’ might say ’peace restoration’ is still work in progress. Hopefully, it will not say restoration has regressed!

On that note of mild happiness, I would like to thank you for your patience.



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Iain Douglas-Hamilton: Science, courage, and the battle for elephants

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Iain Douglas-Hamilton

Passing of Iain Douglas-Hamilton, a man who dedicated his life to conservation and whose life’s work leaves a lasting impact on our appreciation for, and understanding of, elephants.

– Prince William

In Africa on 08 December, 2025, when the sun slipped below the horizon, it did not only give an end for that day, but it also marked the end of a man whose knowledge and courage saved Africa’s elephants. This gentleman was none other than Iain Douglas-Hamilton! There is a beautiful African proverb that says, “When an old man dies, a library burns to the ground,” and it resonates well with Iain’s demise.

Iain pioneered behaviour research on elephants, and he was the first to highlight the elephant poaching crisis in Africa. Also, the adventures he went through to save the elephants will inspire generations.

From Oxford to Africa

The Life of the Last Proboscideans: Elephants”, authored by Muthukumarana, stands as an awardwinning, comprehensive study that integrates elephant evolution, anthropology, biology, behaviour, and conservation science.

Iain was born on 16 August, 1942, into an aristocratic family, the son of Lord David Douglas-Hamilton and Ann Prunella Stack. His parents were a distinguished couple in Britain: his father, a Scottish nobleman, served as a squadron leader in the Royal Air Force, while his mother was a pioneering figure in physical fitness and a prominent advocate for women’s rights. After finishing his school, Iain was admitted to Oxford University to study zoology. At the age of 23, for his PhD, Iain travelled to Tanzania to study the behaviour of elephants at Lake Manyara National Park. This was a daring and humble beginning that would change how the world understood elephants. He learnt to recognise individual animals based on their tusks and ears. He observed their family bonds, their grief, and their intelligence. These findings made the scientific community identify elephants as sentimental beings. During this period, he married Oria Rocco, and together they had two children, Saba and Mara.

Battle for the elephants

When ivory poaching swept across Africa and devastated elephant populations, Iain did not withdraw in despair. He confronted the crisis head-on, guided by science, rigorous data, and unwavering resolve. Through extensive aerial counts and field studies, he laid bare the scale of the tragedy—revealing that Africa’s elephant numbers had collapsed from an estimated 1.3 million to just about 600,000 in little more than 10 years.

It was largely thanks to his work that the global community saw—perhaps for the first time—the full scope of the crisis. His efforts played a pivotal role in pushing forward the 1989 international ban on ivory trade, a landmark moment for wildlife conservation.

In 1993, Iain founded Save the Elephants (STE), an organisation that would become the heart of elephant conservation efforts in Kenya and across Africa.

At STE, he pioneered the use of GPS-tracking and aerial survey techniques to monitor elephant movements, protect them from poaching, and plan safe corridors for them in increasingly human-dominated landscapes. These methods have since become standard tools in wildlife conservation worldwide.

Beyond technology and science, Iain was a mentor. He inspired — and continues to inspire — generations of conservationists, researchers, and everyday people who care deeply about wildlife. Through his books (such as Among the Elephants and Battle for the Elephants), documentaries, lectures, and personal example, he invited the world to see elephants not as trophies or commodities, but as sentient beings — worthy of awe, study, and protection.

Iain and Sri Lanka

In 2003 Iain came to Sri Lanka for the first time to attend the “Symposium on Human-Elephant Relationships and Conflict” as the keynote speaker. On that day he concluded his address by saying, “When I hear the talk of Problem Animal Control, I always wonder whether our species has the capacity for its own self-regulation or Problem Human Control in a humane and wise manner. HEC stands for Human Elephant Conflict, one of our focuses of this conference. How I wish it could come to stand for Human Elephant Coexistence, based on a recognition that other beings also need their space to live in. We are a long way from that, but I am sure that many of the findings of the talented body of researchers in this room will begin a stepwise progress in answering some of these fundamental problems.”

A few years ago Iain’s organisation STE collaborated with the Sri Lankan Wildlife Conservation Society for research activities aimed at reducing human-elephant conflict. In 2016 when the Sri Lankan government was going to destroy the confiscated illegal African elephant ivory, I made a request for Iain to write a congratulatory message to Sri Lanka’s President and Prime Minister for the wise decision they had taken. Iain sent me a four-page meaningful letter written by him, and he was joined by 18 other conservation organisations. In his letter he mentioned, “I want to offer my congratulations to the government of Sri Lanka for the laudable decision to destroy ivory stocks…” Sri Lanka is sending a message to the world that ivory should be without worth; elephants have value when alive. This is a critical message to send, particularly to the religious world, as they are sensitised about the threat religious ivory poses to elephant populations in Africa.”

Fortunately, Iain’s conservation is taken up by his children, especially his eldest daughter, Saba. In 2016 and 2024 she came to Sri Lanka for a lecture hosted by the Galle Literary Festival. Also in 2019, for the Wildlife and Nature Protection Society’s 125th Anniversary, Saba and her husband visited a gala dinner that was held to fundraise for conservation projects.

A difficult path

Iain’s path was never easy. He endured personal peril many times: from hostile terrain and unpredictable wild animals to being shot at by poachers while conducting aerial patrols over war-torn national parks.

Yet despite the danger, despite setbacks — flooded camps, lost data, shifting political tides — his conviction never wavered. His was a life marked by resilience. He refused complacency. He refused to surrender. And through every hardship, he remembered why he began: to give elephants a future.

Iain was also a pilot, and as the old English saying goes, “Pilots don’t die; they simply fly higher.” In that spirit, I wish the same peaceful ascent for Iain. My heartfelt condolences are with Iain’s family.

by Tharindu Muthukumarana ✍️
tharinduele@gmail.com
(Author of the award-winning book “The Life of Last Proboscideans: Elephants”)




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Awesome power of gratitude

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When you hear the word gratitude the first impression you get is a tail-wagging dog. If you feed a dog one day, it will wag its tail even if you meet it after a few years. That is gratitude. In addition, dogs are great teachers. They are at home in the world. They live in the moment and they force us to stay with them. Dogs love us and remain grateful unconditionally not for our bodies or bank accounts.

Small children are taught to say ‘Thank you’ for any favour they receive from others. They do not know that the two words can have positive effects on your health and the well-being of others.

Some time ago I had to call emergency services as I found one of my family members was unconscious. Within minutes an ambulance arrived and the paramedics whisked the patient away to the nearest hospital. He was in intensive care for a few days and returned home. We were marvelled at the impact of a handful of strangers who took charge of the patient at a critical time. I immediately wrote thank you notes to those who saved the patient’s life. I knew that it was a small gesture on my part. However, it was the only way I could express my gratitude to a dedicated team.

Selfless people

Later I realized that there are a large number of selfless people who do life-saving work, but they never expect anything in return. How volunteers saved a large number of flood victims is a case in point. The flood victims may not have expressed their gratitude in so many words. However, they would have felt a deep sense of gratitude to the volunteers who saved them.

Why do people come forward to help those facing natural disasters and other dangerous situations? A recent research in the United States shows that sharing thoughts of gratitude and performing acts of kindness can boost your mood and have other positive effects on your health. Almost all religions teach that gratitude does have a good impact on your happiness. Professor of Psychology Willibald Ruch says that gratitude is among the top five predictors of happiness.

By showing gratitude you can make positive changes in your own life. If you feel a sense of gratitude whenever you receive something that is good for you, it will be a healthy sign. You cannot get such a feeling in a vacuum because others have to play their roles. They can be your loved ones, friends, strangers or even people in authority. Gratitude is how you relate to them when you see yourself in connection with things larger than yourself.

Gratification lifestyle

Strangely, many people do not pause to appreciate what others are doing for them. For this you have to blame your gratification lifestyle. With the popularity of social media the young people feel that they are the centre of the universe. They seem to think there is no necessity to thank those who help them.

Why should we thank others even for minor favours? Recent studies show that those who express gratitude increase their own happiness levels. They also lower their blood pressure levels to a great extent. On the other hand, they will be able to sleep well and improve their relationships. They are also less affected by pain because of the positive impact on their depression.

They may not know that positive effects of gratitude are long lasting. Research shows that those who write thank you notes improve their mental health. There was also a decrease in their bodily pains. What is more, they feel more energetic in completing their daily activities. Unfortunately, schools and universities do not teach the value of gratitude since it is fairly a new field of study. Researchers are still trying to find out its cause and effect relationship. We know that those who perform acts of gratitude can sleep well. However, we do not know the reason for it. Researchers are wondering whether gratitude leads to better sleep or sleep leads to more gratitude. They also probe whether there is another variable that leads to gratitude and improved sleep.

Children

Despite such controversies, we know for certain that gratitude can benefit people at any stage of life. Most elderly people remain grateful for their children and grandchildren who support them. Elderly people cannot regain their physical strength or mental agility. Therefore they focus on gratitude. They are thankful to their children and grandchildren for their present situation.

How do gratitude recipients react? Research shows that those who receive thank you notes or acts of kindness experience positive emotions. You feel happy when someone holds a door open for you. Similarly, you are happy if you receive some unexpected help. Recently I was pleasantly surprised to see that someone has credited a big sum of money to my bank account in appreciation of a small favour I had done.

When you thank someone they are more likely to return the favour or pay kindness forward. Psychologically, people feel very happy when you thank them. However, some people hesitate to say thank you. The give-and-take of gratitude deepens relationships. In a close relationship husbands and wives do not thank each other. However, there are other ways of showing gratitude. A wife can make her husband feel appreciated. Such a feeling of appreciation will go a long way to strengthen their relationship.

Some people are ungrateful by nature. However, they can learn the art of being grateful. Such people will do well to maintain a gratitude journal. It is something similar to Pinpotha maintained by Buddhists in the past. They can record positive events in the journal. At the beginning this may not be easy. With practice, however, you can do it well. I knew of a man who kept a gratitude journal. Although his family members laughed at him, he did not give up the habit. When he was diagnosed with a terminal disease he used to read his gratitude journal very happily.

By R.S. Karunaratne ✍️

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Another Christmas, Another Disaster, Another Recovery Mountain to Climb

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In line with its overall response to Cyclone Ditwah that devastated many parts of Sri Lanka, India has undertaken to set up temporary Bailey Bridges at selected locations. Work on the first such bridge has begun in Kilinochchi on the Paranthan–Karaichi–Mullaitivu A35 road. Indian Army engineers are working with their counterparts. The Indian HC said that 185 tonnes of Bailey Bridge units were airlifted to restore critical connectivity, along with 44 engineers (Pic courtesy IHC)

The 2004 Asian Tsunami erupted the day after Christmas. Like the Boxing Day Test Match in Brisbane, it was a boxing day bolt for Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, India and Maldives. Twenty one years later, in 2025, multiple Asian cyclones hit almost all the old victims and added a few more, including Malayasia, Vietnam and Cambodia. Indonesia and Sri Lanka were hit hard both times. Unlike the 2004 Tsunami, the 2025 cyclones made landfalls weeks before Christmas, during the Christian Season of Advent, the four-week period before Christmas preparing for the arrival of the Messiah. An ominously adventus manifestation of the nature’s fury.

Yet it was not the “day of wrath and doom impending … heaven and earth in ashes ending” – heavenly punishment for government lying, as an opposition politician ignorantly asserted. By that token, the gods must have opted to punish half a dozen other Asian countries for the NPP government’s lying in Sri Lanka. Or all those governments have been caught lying. Everyone is caught and punished for lying, except the world’s Commander in Chief for lying – Donald J. Trump. But as of late and none too sooner, President Trump is getting his punishment in spades. Who would have thought?

In fairness, even the Catholic Church has banished its old hymn of wrath (Dies irae, dies illa) that used to be sung at funerals from its current Missals; and it has on offer, many other hymns of peace and joy, especially befitting the Christmas season. Although this year’s Christmas comes after weeks of havoc caused by cyclonic storms and torrential rains, the spirit of the season, both in its religious and secular senses, will hopefully provide some solace for those still suffering and some optimism to everyone who is trying to uplift the country from its overflowing waterways and sliding slopes.

As the scale of devastation goes, no natural disaster likely will surpass the human fatalities that the 2004 Tsunami caused. But the spread and scale of this year’s cyclone destruction, especially the destruction of the island’s land-forms and its infrastructure assets, are, in my view, quite unprecedented. The scale of the disaster would finally seem to have sunk into the nation’s political skulls after a few weeks of cacophonic howlers – asking who knew and did what and when. The quest for instant solutions and the insistence that the government should somehow find them immediately are no longer as vehement and voluble as they were when they first emerged.

NBRO and Landslides

But there is understandable frustration and even fear all around, including among government ministers. To wit, the reported frustration of Agriculture Minister K.D. Lalkantha at the alleged inability of the National Building Research Organization (NBRO) to provide more specific directions in landslide warnings instead of issuing blanket ‘Level 3 Red Alerts’ covering whole administrative divisions in the Central Province, especially in the Kandy District. “We can’t relocate all 20 divisional secretariats” in the Kandy District, the Minister told the media a few weeks ago. His frustration is understandable, but expecting NBRO to provide political leaders with precise locations and certainty of landslides or no landslides is a tall ask and the task is fraught with many challenges.

In fairness to NBRO and its Engineers, their competence and their responses to the current calamity have been very impressive. It is not the fault of the NBRO that local disasters could not be prevented, and people could not be warned sufficiently in advance to evacuate and avoid being at the epicentre of landslides. The intensity of landslides this year is really a function of the intensity and persistence of rainfall this season, for the occurrence of landslides in Sri Lanka is very directly co-related to the amount of rainfall. The rainfall during this disaster season has been simply relentless.

Evacuation, the ready remedy, is easier said than socially and politically done. Minister Lal Kantha was exasperated at the prospect of evacuating whole divisional secretariats. This was after multiple landslides and the tragedies and disasters they caused. Imagine anybody seriously listening to NBRO’s pleas or warnings to evacuate before any drop of rainwater has fallen, not to mention a single landslide. Ignoring weather warnings is not peculiar to Sri Lanka, but a universal trait of social inertia.

I just lauded NBRO’s competence and expertise. That is because of the excellent database the NBRO professionals have compiled, delineating landslide zones and demarcating them based on their vulnerability for slope failure. They have also identified the main factors causing landslides, undertaken slope stabilization measures where feasible, and developed preventative and mitigative measures to deal with landslide occurrences.

The NBRO has been around since the 1980s, when its pioneers supplemented the work of Prof. Thurairajah at Peradeniya E’Fac in studying the Hantana hill slopes where the NHDA was undertaking a large housing scheme. As someone who was involved in the Hantana project, I have often thought that the initiation of the NBRO could be deemed one of the positive legacies of then Housing Ministry Secretary R. Paskaralingam.

Be that as it may, the NBRO it has been tracking and analyzing landslides in Sri Lanka for nearly three decades, and would seem to have come of age in landslides expertise with its work following 2016 Aranayake Landslide Disaster in the Kegalle District. Technically, the Aranayake disaster is a remarkable phenomenon and it is known as a “rain-induced rapid long-travelling landslide” (RRLL). In Kegalle the 2016 RRLL carried “a fluidized landslide mass over a distance of 2 km” and caused the death of 125 people. International technical collaboration following the disaster produced significant research work and the start of a five-year research project (from 2020) in partnership with the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL). The main purpose of the project is to improve on the early warning systems that NBRO has been developing and using since 2007.

Sri Lankan landslides are rain induced and occur in hilly and mountainous areas where there is rapid weathering of rock into surface soil deposits. Landslide locations are invariably in the wet zone of the country, in 13 districts, in six provinces (viz., the Central, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Northwestern, Western and Southern, provinces). The Figure below (from NBRO’s literature) shows the number of landslides and fatalities every year between 2003 and 2021.

Based on the graphics shown, there would have been about 5,000 landslides and slope failures with nearly 1,000 deaths over 19 years between 2003 and 2021. Every year there was some landslide or slope failure activity. One notable feature is that there have been more deaths with fewer landslides and vice-versa in particular years. In 2018, there were no deaths when the highest number (1,250) of landslides and slope failures occurred that year. Although the largest number in an year, the landslides in 2018 could have been minor and occurred in unpopulated areas. The reasons for more deaths in, say, 2016 (150) or 2017 (250+), could be their location, population density and the severity of specific landslides.

NBRO’s landslide early warning system is based on three components: (1) Predicting rainfall intensity and monitoring water pressure build up in landslide areas; (2) Monitoring and observing signs of soil movement and slope instability in vulnerable areas; and (3) Communicating landslide risk level and appropriate warning to civil authorities and the local public. The general warnings to Watch (Yellow), be Alert (Brown), or Evacuate (Red) are respectively based on the anticipated rainfall intensities, viz., 75 mm/day, 100 mm/day; and 150 mm/day or 100 mm/hr. My understanding is that over the years, NBRO has established its local presence in vulnerable areas to better communicate with the local population the risk levels and timely action.

Besides Landslides

This year, the rain has been relentless with short-term intensities often exceeding the once per 100-year rainfall. This is now a fact of life in the era of climate change. Added to this was cyclone Ditwah and its unique meteorology and trajectory – from south to north rather than northeast to southwest. The cyclone started with a disturbance southwest of Sri Lanka in the Arabian Sea, traversed around the southern coast from west to east to southeast in the Bay of Bengal, and then cut a wide swath from south to north through the entire easterly half of the island. The origin and the trajectory of the cyclone are also attributed to climate change and changes in the Arabian Sea. The upshot again is unpredictability.

Besides landslides, the rainfall this season has inundated and impacted practically every watershed in the country, literally sweeping away roads, bridges, tanks, canals, and small dams in their hundreds or several hundreds. The longitudinal sinking of the Colombo-Kandy Road in the Kadugannawa area seems quite unparalleled and this may not be the only location that such a shearing may have occurred. The damages are so extensive and it is beyond Sri Lanka’s capacity, and the single-term capacity of any government, to undertake systematic rebuilding of the damaged and washed-off infrastructure.

The government has its work cutout at least in three areas of immediate restoration and long term prevention. On landslides warning, it would seem NBRO has the technical capacity to do what it needs to do, and what seems to be missing is a system of multi-pronged and continuous engagement between the technical experts, on the one hand, and the political and administrative powers as well as local population and institutions, on the other. Such an arrangement is warranted because the landslide problem is severe, significant and it not going to go away now or ever.

Such an engagement will also provide for the technical awareness of the problem, its mitigation and the prevention of serious fallouts. A restructuring could start from the assignment of ministerial responsibilities, and giving NBRO experts constant presence at the highest level of decision making. The engagement should extend down the pyramid to involve every level of administration, including schools and civil society organizations at the local level.

As for external resources, several Asian countries, with India being the closest, are already engaged in multiple ways. It is up to the government to co-ordinate and deploy these friendly resources for maximum results. Sri Lanka is already teamed with India for meteorological monitoring and forecasting, and with Japan for landslide research and studies. These collaborations will obviously continue but they should be focused to fill gaps in climate predictions, and to enhance local level monitoring and prevention of landslides.

To deal with the restoration of the damaged infrastructure in multiple watershed areas, the government may want to revisit the Accelerated Mahaweli Scheme for an approach to deal with the current crisis. The genesis and implementation of that scheme involved as many flaws as it produced benefits, but what might be relevant here is to approach the different countries who were involved in funding and building the different Mahaweli headworks and downstream projects. Australia, Britain, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, Sweden and Germany are some of the countries that were involved in the old Mahaweli projects. They could be approached for technical and financial assistance to restore the damaged infrastructure pieces in the respective watershed areas where these countries were involved.

by Rajan Philips ✍️

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