Business
Real question is not whether SL should go to IMF or not: Verité Research
‘ Sri Lanka makes the mistake of letting IMF write a plan for the country’
by Sanath Nanayakkare
The real question is not whether Sri Lanka should go to the IMF or not. What is important is going to the IMF with confidence after having analysed the fiscal situation, with a convincing plan, Executive Director of Verité Research Dr. Nishan de Mel said in Colombo recently.
He made this remark at a CEOs Forum hosted by CA Sri Lanka to provide clarity on the current debt situation, whilst also helping the business community gain a better understanding on the government’s strategy and way forward to navigate through the ongoing situation.
State Minister of Money and Capital Market and State Enterprise Reforms Ajith Nivard Cabraal, was the guest speaker and the panel session brought together eminent speakers comprising of Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka Professor W. D. Lakshman, Chairman of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce Vish Govindasamy, [Executive Director of Verité Research (Pvt) Ltd Dr. Nishan de Mel], and Managing Director of Fitch Rating Agency Maninda Wickramasinghe.
Dr. Nishan de Mel further said: “For instance, when you go to a bank with a business idea to take out a loan, the bank says, ‘give me your plan’. But if you get the credit officer to write the plan for you it won’t be appropriate. The mistake Sri Lanka makes is letting the IMF write that plan for the country because the country doesn’t have one. The crux of the matter is; the credit officer shouldn’t write the plan. The country should present the plan and convince the credit officer that the plan has the potential to work out – a plan backed by an analysis that can win the confidence of the lender. That’s the structured way to obtain an IMF facility for Sri Lanka. I do hope that we can take that path.”
“The Central Bank may have a different approach to analyzsng the situation – I think publishing that analysis would be very valid because that is a test of some scrutiny and others would be able to look at it – that is a way to give confidence. I completely accept that there is no one way to analyse the situation and determine the approaches we can take, but it is important to make the chosen approach public.”
“The government and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) are on the right path with regard to reducing the ratio of foreign debt to domestic debt, but the greater reliance placed on domestic financing too quickly would be like running a marathon too fast as it could burn out the accelerated shift.”
“On the other hand, we might not have the option of being too slow on this aspect as rating agencies are downgrading and the markets are observing. Amid this we have to build confidence. These are very concerning which is why I say it is not too late for Sri Lanka to realign its strategy to get out of the problem and to keep its debt sustainable while making sure we won’t run into a liquidity crisis.”
“Verité’s own analysis shows that there are four steps that can make debt repayment more sustainable and a fifth step to avoid a reserve crisis which people are worried about.”
“Number 1; the interest rates on local debt can be no higher than inflation which I think we have probably achieved. The Central Bank has had a larger tolerance for inflation and it will end up in 6.5% range, and interest rates on local debt have been brought down which is an important part of the function. I t will take some time for all the government debt to reflect that lower rate, but that in reality is the right path. However, it’s a cost to society because inflation is costly in terms of real returns from your bank balances or investments.”
“Secondly, interest rates on foreign denominated loans can’t be higher than GDP growth There also Sri Lanka is well placed because even though we talk about having a large amount of commercial debt, the history of concessional debt is so high that our weighted average interest rate on foreign denominated debt is still only 3.9%, and going forward with a growth of about 4%, we can maintain that. Being able to maintain the interest on that percentage rate for foreign denominated loans is favourable for Sri Lanka.”
“Then there are two other conditions that Sri Lanka needs to do more about. One is the primary deficit- that is the deficit after paying interest- which should be less than 60% of GDP growth – that means if the GDP growth is 5%, primary deficit can’t be more than 3%. If we are expecting a lower GDP growth this time; say a growth of 3.3%, then the primary deficit can’t be more than 3%. So we really have to control that and bring it down. And it is very important to report those numbers correctly to give the markets that confidence. This still allows for a budget deficit in the high single digits because our total interest on debt is over 6% of GDP. This is not drastic, but it says that deficit has to be in the mid single digits. If we want to maintain the deficit, we need to be able to manage the upper single digits with a doable plan.”
The fourth is that depreciation of the currency can be no higher than inflation, and that brings us to the fifth step because currency depreciation today is not based on the fundamental mismatch in global crisis vs Sri Lankan crisis. From 2015 to 2019, one of the major important adjustments made was, to bring it to what you call the real exchange rate. Sri Lanka’s exchange rate until 2015 was significantly over valued. Even though depreciation hurt, the adjustment brought stability. That was an important alignment. That alignment is still sort of in place but today because of the uncertainty about the reserves, you see a speculative exchange rate- and that simply puts pressure on depreciation.”, he said.
Indra Traders recently introduced a special programme titled “Athwela” in collaboration with the Bank of Ceylon (BOC).
The programme was designed with a primary focus on customer convenience, aiming to provide essential support by simplifying the financial challenges often associated with vehicle purchasing and servicing. This initiative is regarded as a further strengthening of the trust and relationships Indra Traders has built over its decades of service excellence.
The partner for this program, the Bank of Ceylon (BOC), is Sri Lanka’s largest state bank and a premier financial institution. It offers an extensive island-wide branch network, exceptional customer service, and some of the most competitive interest rates in the market.
Speaking at the event, Rushanka Silva, Managing Director of Indra Traders, said: “Today is a very special day for us. As Indra Traders, a company engaged in business for over five decades, it is a great honor to enter into the ‘Athwela’ agreement with Sri Lanka’s largest bank. Through this program, we are working to provide various financial and service facilities, including leasing. As a company that imports everything from the smallest to the largest vehicles, we provide customers the opportunity to purchase any vehicle they need through our six yards located across the island. Even if a specific vehicle is not in our current stock, we are prepared to import it according to the customer’s requirement. I invite all customers to join hands with ‘Athwela’.”
Y. A. Jayathilaka, General Manager of Bank of Ceylon, added “At a time when restrictions on vehicle imports have been relaxed, it is a great pleasure for Bank of Ceylon, the strongest bank in the country, to partner with Indra Traders – a company with over 50 years of trusted history. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive and convenient service to leasing customers across the island by combining BOC’s extensive branch network with Indra Traders’ expertise.”
The Sri Lankan Embassy in Beijing together with Beijing Capital Airlines last week organized a destination promotion event and announced the launch the Capital Airlines direct flights from Beijing to Colombo.
While congratulating Beijing Capital Airlines for expanding the connectivity between Beijing and Colombo, the Sri Lanka Ambassador Majintha Jayesinghe highlighted the longstanding bilateral relations between the two countries and the significance of strengthening connectivity in line with the Joint Statement issued following the meeting in January 2025 between President Xi Jinping and President Anura Kumara Disanayaka, a news release from the embassy said.
The President of the Beijing Capital Airlines Liu Jun expressed appreciation and stated that the new route is an important milestone in expanding the airline’s South Asian network while strengthening the Air Silk Route. He also highlighted that this is the only direct flight connecting Northern China with Sri Lanka and a key Capital-to-Capital air link, it added.
There was no word about the flight frequency and when the service will begin.
Ambassador Jayesinghe reiterated that Sri Lanka is more than a holiday destination and is positioned as an exotic, experienced-rich, year-round travel destination offering warm and pleasant weather. He emphasized that Sri Lanka, as a stand-alone destination, provides a blend of rich history, eight UNESCO heritage sites, diverse landscapes, pristine beaches, dense forests, and scenic mountains, inviting Chinese travellers to explore and enjoy Sri Lanka.
The commencement of the Beijing – Colombo route will contribute to the social and economic development of both countries. The Beijing- Colombo service has filled a longstanding gap in the aviation market and will further promote the economic, trade, cultural and tourism development, while offering more convenient travel options, the news release said.
SLT-MOBITEL Mobile, in collaboration with Fintelex (Pvt) Ltd, has launched ‘Yaya Agro’, an exclusive all-in-one smart agriculture app designed to empower Sri Lankan farmers with the tools they need to grow smarter, safer, and more sustainably.
Yaya Agro represents a new era of digital farming in Sri Lanka combining technology, expert knowledge, and community empowerment to provide farmers the confidence to make smarter decisions, improve productivity, and build a sustainable future.
Developed with support from GIZ and Hatch and validated by leading academic and professional institutions including the University of Colombo, Institute for Agrotechnology and Rural Sciences, and the Sri Lanka Red Cross Society, Yaya Agro combines agricultural expertise, real-time weather updates, first aid support, and AI-powered assistance into a single, easy-to-use platform.
The launch of Yaya Agro positions SLT-MOBITEL as an innovative, inclusive, and collaborative technology leader. Partnering technology and academic institutions, the company extends its role outside the sector into agriculture, empowering farmers with AI-driven tools, multilingual access, and market connectivity. The initiative also strengthens SLT-MOBITEL’s image as a champion of digital empowerment and sustainable development in Sri Lanka.
Functioning as a comprehensive digital companion, Yaya Agro is positioned as a digital farming companion, bringing precision agriculture, real-time support, and market access to the fingertips of every Sri Lankan farmer.
Whether managing a small home garden or a large commercial farm, the app equips farmers with vital insights to improve crop yield, reduce risks, and connect directly with buyers through the integrated online marketplace.
Yaya Agro offers farmers daily crop information with expert tips on management, pest control, and best practices, all validated by the University of Colombo. It provides accurate, location-based weather forecasts to help plan farming activities more effectively. The app also delivers life-saving first aid tutorials and safety information verified by the Sri Lanka Red Cross Society, ensuring farmers are prepared for emergencies. With the AI chatbot assistant, farmers can access instant, personalized advice around the clock, with smart notifications delivering timely alerts and reminders tailored to crop cycles.
To make learning inclusive and accessible, Yaya Agro is available in Sinhala, Tamil, and English, offering interactive educational content such as videos, voice guides, and infographics. The app also integrates an online marketplace, developed in partnership with GIZ and Hatch, enabling farmers to connect directly with buyers and expand their reach.
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