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Real question is not whether SL should go to IMF or not: Verité Research

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‘ Sri Lanka makes the mistake of letting IMF write a plan for the country’

by Sanath Nanayakkare

The real question is not whether Sri Lanka should go to the IMF or not. What is important is going to the IMF with confidence after having analysed the fiscal situation, with a convincing plan, Executive Director of Verité Research Dr. Nishan de Mel said in Colombo recently.

He made this remark at a CEOs Forum hosted by CA Sri Lanka to provide clarity on the current debt situation, whilst also helping the business community gain a better understanding on the government’s strategy and way forward to navigate through the ongoing situation.

State Minister of Money and Capital Market and State Enterprise Reforms Ajith Nivard Cabraal, was the guest speaker and the panel session brought together eminent speakers comprising of Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka Professor W. D. Lakshman, Chairman of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce Vish Govindasamy, [Executive Director of Verité Research (Pvt) Ltd Dr. Nishan de Mel], and Managing Director of Fitch Rating Agency Maninda Wickramasinghe.

Dr. Nishan de Mel further said: “For instance, when you go to a bank with a business idea to take out a loan, the bank says, ‘give me your plan’. But if you get the credit officer to write the plan for you it won’t be appropriate. The mistake Sri Lanka makes is letting the IMF write that plan for the country because the country doesn’t have one. The crux of the matter is; the credit officer shouldn’t write the plan. The country should present the plan and convince the credit officer that the plan has the potential to work out – a plan backed by an analysis that can win the confidence of the lender. That’s the structured way to obtain an IMF facility for Sri Lanka. I do hope that we can take that path.”

“The Central Bank may have a different approach to analyzsng the situation – I think publishing that analysis would be very valid because that is a test of some scrutiny and others would be able to look at it – that is a way to give confidence. I completely accept that there is no one way to analyse the situation and determine the approaches we can take, but it is important to make the chosen approach public.”

“The government and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) are on the right path with regard to reducing the ratio of foreign debt to domestic debt, but the greater reliance placed on domestic financing too quickly would be like running a marathon too fast as it could burn out the accelerated shift.”

“On the other hand, we might not have the option of being too slow on this aspect as rating agencies are downgrading and the markets are observing. Amid this we have to build confidence. These are very concerning which is why I say it is not too late for Sri Lanka to realign its strategy to get out of the problem and to keep its debt sustainable while making sure we won’t run into a liquidity crisis.”

“Verité’s own analysis shows that there are four steps that can make debt repayment more sustainable and a fifth step to avoid a reserve crisis which people are worried about.”

“Number 1; the interest rates on local debt can be no higher than inflation which I think we have probably achieved. The Central Bank has had a larger tolerance for inflation and it will end up in 6.5% range, and interest rates on local debt have been brought down which is an important part of the function. I t will take some time for all the government debt to reflect that lower rate, but that in reality is the right path. However, it’s a cost to society because inflation is costly in terms of real returns from your bank balances or investments.”

“Secondly, interest rates on foreign denominated loans can’t be higher than GDP growth There also Sri Lanka is well placed because even though we talk about having a large amount of commercial debt, the history of concessional debt is so high that our weighted average interest rate on foreign denominated debt is still only 3.9%, and going forward with a growth of about 4%, we can maintain that. Being able to maintain the interest on that percentage rate for foreign denominated loans is favourable for Sri Lanka.”

“Then there are two other conditions that Sri Lanka needs to do more about. One is the primary deficit- that is the deficit after paying interest- which should be less than 60% of GDP growth – that means if the GDP growth is 5%, primary deficit can’t be more than 3%. If we are expecting a lower GDP growth this time; say a growth of 3.3%, then the primary deficit can’t be more than 3%. So we really have to control that and bring it down. And it is very important to report those numbers correctly to give the markets that confidence. This still allows for a budget deficit in the high single digits because our total interest on debt is over 6% of GDP. This is not drastic, but it says that deficit has to be in the mid single digits. If we want to maintain the deficit, we need to be able to manage the upper single digits with a doable plan.”

The fourth is that depreciation of the currency can be no higher than inflation, and that brings us to the fifth step because currency depreciation today is not based on the fundamental mismatch in global crisis vs Sri Lankan crisis. From 2015 to 2019, one of the major important adjustments made was, to bring it to what you call the real exchange rate. Sri Lanka’s exchange rate until 2015 was significantly over valued. Even though depreciation hurt, the adjustment brought stability. That was an important alignment. That alignment is still sort of in place but today because of the uncertainty about the reserves, you see a speculative exchange rate- and that simply puts pressure on depreciation.”, he said.

 

 



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ADB intervention offers an oasis for Delft, but basic infrastructure remains a daily struggle

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A tour reveals the widening gap between Delft’s tourism promise and the realities of island life

By Sanath Nanayakkare

Stepping onto Neduntheevu – better known as Delft Island – can feel like slipping off the edge of the map into one of Sri Lanka’s least-explored frontiers.

For the traveller seeking an escape from the urban grid, this remote island off the Jaffna peninsula offers an alluring picture of a forgotten paradise: wild horses, coral and limestone fences, sun-bleached dwellings and a community accustomed to life at the margins.

But beneath that romantic veneer lies a far harsher reality.

For the people who live and work here, survival remains an everyday balancing act shaped by inadequate infrastructure, acute water scarcity, unreliable transport and growing frustration over what they see as years of neglect.

Some crucial lifelines, however, have begun to reach these distant shores, largely through the intervention of international development partners.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has played an important role in strengthening water security on Delft, through a Sea Water Reverse Osmosis (SWRO) plant designed to provide a critical source of potable water to the island.

The plant was designed with an initial capacity of about 50 cubic metres – or 50,000 litres – of potable water a day, with the potential to expand production to 100 cubic metres. At present, it supplies roughly 40% of Delft’s population.

For residents and local businesses, the plant has provided much-needed relief. Yet operational constraints mean that it currently runs for only about 20 minutes a day, limiting the volume of water available and forcing households and businesses to find additional sources simply to meet their daily needs.

Few understand that struggle better than Vithushan Arul Ranjan, affectionately known as Tommy, a young Energy and Environmental Technology graduate of the University of Sri Jayewardenepura. In 2021, Vithushan launched Delft Village Stay on family land as a community-based tourism venture. It has since grown into an award-winning eco-retreat accommodating up to 25 guests in eco-huts and traditional rooms.

His enterprise has received recognition at both regional and international levels, including the Northern Province Tourism Award 2025 and a recommendation in the 2025 edition of the Lonely Planet Guide.

His business is built around responsible tourism, with an emphasis on bringing economic benefits to the local community. But operating an eco-retreat on one of Sri Lanka’s most isolated islands comes at a considerable cost.

“It is almost impossible to focus on the business when we are constantly in survival mode,” Vithushan says.

Georgie Unsworth, a UK/Belgium visitor turned team member at Delft Village Stay, highlights the stark contrast between Neduntheevu’s magical appeal and the harsh realities locals face regarding basic infrastructure and rights. While tourists want to support sustainable growth and prioritise resident needs – fearing a repeat of southern Sri Lanka’s over-tourism – they are often distressed by severe plastic pollution and a lack of recycling facilities. Ultimately, Unsworth emphasises that visitors prefer authentic, responsible experiences over luxury amenities like AC boats and swimming pools, urging that fundamental local needs be addressed before expanding tourism.

One of his biggest challenges is something most tourism businesses take for granted: drinking water. Because Delft’s groundwater is severely affected by salinity, Delft Village Stay has to transport drinking water from across the Jaffna peninsula. The business spends around Rs. 35,000 a month just to bring in enough water to meet the basic requirements of its guests.

The problem extends well beyond the tourism sector. Residents say Delft’s fragile connection with the mainland remains heavily dependent on a small fleet of vessels – two government ferries and one private boat – that are vulnerable to breakdowns, overcrowding and unpredictable schedules.

The consequences can be severe.

Recently, a month-long interruption to regular boat services effectively isolated the island, disrupting the supply of essentials including cooking gas and drinking water.

The island’s tourism ambitions have also exposed the gap between policy aspirations and ground realities.

Government plans to develop Delft as an eco-tourism destination have encouraged a growing flow of visitors, but residents and tourism operators argue that visitor numbers cannot be increased sustainably without first strengthening the island’s basic infrastructure.

The dangers became starkly apparent when an unofficial private boat carrying tourists capsized with 10 people on board. A potentially fatal tragedy was reportedly averted only after local fishermen and Navy personnel rushed to the rescue.

The incident offered a sobering reminder that tourism development in remote locations requires more than branding a destination as an ecological paradise.

For policymakers and development planners looking towards Sri Lanka’s north, Delft offers a clear lesson. Ambitions for zero-emission, community-based and environmentally sustainable tourism cannot move faster than the basic needs of the people who live there.

Reliable maritime transport, expanded water and wastewater management, proper waste disposal and functioning public amenities are not optional extras. They are the foundations upon which any sustainable tourism economy must be built.

The ADB-supported water infrastructure offers a glimpse of what targeted investment can achieve. But Delft’s experience also shows that a single intervention, however important, cannot resolve a much wider infrastructure deficit.

The island may have wild horses, coral walls, ancient ruins and a growing reputation among international travellers.

But before Delft can truly become the eco-tourism showcase policymakers envision, it must first become a place where its residents can reliably secure something as fundamental as water.

“That is the real test of whether the island’s tourism promise can translate into sustainable development – or whether the Lonely Planet image of Delft will remain little more than a façade over the daily hardships of its people,” says Vithushan Arul Ranjan.

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Systemic questions linger over NDB fraud inquiry

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By Sanath Nanayakkare

The unfolding developments surrounding the massive internal financial irregularity at the National Development Bank PLC (NDB), valued at approximately LKR 13.2 billion, continue to demand rigorous public scrutiny.

As months have passed since the initial disclosure of the fraud in early 2026, questions regarding institutional accountability, regulatory oversight, and corporate governance remain central to discussions concerning the stability and transparency of Sri Lanka’s financial sector.

First coming to light through corporate disclosures and subsequent regulatory reviews, the LKR 13.2 billion incident represents one of the largest internal fraud cases recorded within a major commercial institution in recent times. Because NDB is a systemically important institution – with major state-backed shareholding through entities such as the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF), the Employees’ Trust Fund (ETF), Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation (SLIC), and the Bank of Ceylon (BOC) – the implications extend far beyond normal corporate missteps.

Public interest advocates and financial analysts have repeatedly emphasised that any major lapse in a bank of this magnitude warrants total transparency to maintain public confidence. Although the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) and bank management have publicly assured stakeholders that customer deposits remain secure and day-to-day operations unaffected, the broader governance questions regarding how such significant vulnerabilities went undetected remain a subject of intense public debate.

A focal point of concern among financial analysts and governance watchdogs is the framework surrounding the independent forensic audit commissioned to investigate the transactions.

Entrusted to international expertise via Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India LLP, the audit’s mandate includes examining the circumstances of the fraudulent operations as well as evaluating historical lapses in internal controls, oversight, and compliance.

However, critics, including public interest figures, have raised questions regarding the timeline for the finalisation and release of these findings.

Parliamentary oversight bodies, such as the Committee on Public Finance (CoPF), have previously engaged with regulatory authorities to review the matter.

Observers point out that timely public access to comprehensive audit findings – without compromising ongoing criminal investigations by entities like the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) – is vital to ensuring that systemic gaps are permanently closed.

The NDB case has also cast a sharp spotlight on broader corporate governance norms in Sri Lanka, bringing elements such as board oversight, the role of external auditors, and potential conflict-of-interest perceptions into sharper focus.

Critics argue that maintaining public trust requires strict adherence to ethical standards at every level of corporate leadership, from commercial bank directors to regulatory supervisors.

“As the country seeks to attract sustainable foreign direct investment, establishing an uncompromised standard of accountability is paramount. For the memory of this financial fraud to serve a constructive purpose, institutional watchdogs, lawmakers, and regulators must ensure that investigations are brought to a transparent, logical, and publicly accountable conclusion, ensuring that public resources and systemic financial integrity are robustly safeguarded,” keen observers of this massive brank fraud say.

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‘ASEAN must leverage trust and governance alongside cost competitiveness’

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Dato’ Sri Vijay Eswaran

Trust and regulatory clarity are fast becoming ASEAN’s next major competitive advantages, according to Dato’ Sri Vijay Eswaran, Executive Chairman of the QI Group of Companies.

Writing in The Business Times Insights: ASEAN Intelligence 2026, Eswaran noted that while cost competitiveness remains central to the region’s economic appeal, geopolitical uncertainty, shifting supply chains, and rapid technological advancements mean cost is no longer the sole deciding factor for investors. Global companies are increasingly prioritizing stability, predictable policies, and reliable institutions.

Eswaran emphasized that sustainable growth depends on pairing the region’s traditional strengths—such as strategic manufacturing, a growing talent pool, and regional connectivity—with strong institutional governance. Pointing to the OECD’s Asia Capital Markets Report 2026, he highlighted that transparency and institutional maturity are key drivers of investor confidence.

Addressing the rapid integration of artificial intelligence, Eswaran argued that clear guardrails are essential to prevent business hesitation. He commended regional initiatives balancing innovation with oversight, including Malaysia’s AI infrastructure developments, Singapore’s AI Verify framework, Indonesia’s formalization of its National Artificial Intelligence Strategy, the Philippines’ National AI Strategy Roadmap 2.0, and Vietnam’s new risk-based legal framework.

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