New Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe told a British journalist at the Walukaramaya temple where he had gone to obtain blessings after being sworn as prime minister for the sixth time in his 73 years that Churchill became Britain’s prime minister in 1939 with only four MPs. He’s become Sri Lanka’s with one! This was typical Wickremesinghe parrying questions with debating flair. He knows European history, perhaps a little better than he knows Sri Lanka’s. But there too he is no neophyte. Hours after his swearing, Ven. Omalpe Sobhitha, today a very visible political monk in the anti-Gotabaya camp declared this was a “deal.” What else can it be? How else can the man who brought the UNP down to zero in the incumbent parliament, and thereafter procrastinated for months in filling their only national list seat before taking it himself become the prime minister of a government not yet into its second year?
What can be the bottom line of any alleged deal? Obviously there will be no chasing Ali Baba and his forty thieves. That said, there will be many who will believe that Ranil is the best man for the present moment. He has more experience than any of his rivals in the political field and he is certainly no fool. His pro-western and pro-business tilt is a given. That perhaps was why one of the earliest congratulatory tweets was from the U.S. ambassador in Colombo. Mahinda Rajapaksa and Namal too were among the early tweeters. Maybe they feel less hounded now. GR obviously would not have made his pick without the confidence that the majority of the SLPP will back his choice. That however may not be unanimous. Vasudeva Nanayakkara for instance cannot be expected to support a UNP prime minister. But there are many that can be influenced by office; others by protection and not a few must watch their backs. Aiyo (or Cheerio) Sirisena can tilt either way; but however that be, he will not he able to chart the course for the whole group of SLFP MPs. Also, will Sajith Premadasa who has clearly dropped a catch by procrastinating in taking an offer he now feels he should not have refused be able to hold his group together?
There are capable, untainted MPs in the SJB with the ability to selflessly serve a national revival government that the country desperately needs. Wickremesinghe will be glad to have them. But whether they will chance their future political careers by serving a government created by a political horse deal remains to be seen. Public opinion is near unanimous that what GR has done is in the Rajapaksa interest including his own. Anybody coming on board will not be cheered. No doubt many Pohottuwa MPs, bleeding from the blows that their personal property have taken from the ugly turn of what was at first an idealistic, non-violent protest to get the Rajapksas out of the national polity, will now do what’s best for themselves: protection from further attack and, perhaps, compensation down the road. They will remember REPIA (Rehabilitation of Property and Industries Authority) that followed Black July 1983 when victims were compensated.
That Gotabaya must go remains the national demand and it is unlikely (if not impossible) that the president has appointed a prime minister who is out for his blood. Mahinda Rajapaksa, before he succumbed to lunacy and let loose an organized horde on the Galle Face protesters appeared confident of his numbers in parliament. Despite all that has happened since, the likelihood is that the no confidence vote against the president, like the touted impeachment, remains a long shot. If that is the way the process unravels and the outcome favours Gotabaya Rajapaksa, then Ranil Wickremesinghe is home and dry. But for how long is an imponderable in the context of what cinema-goers brand as a “fast breaking serial.”
The Colombo stock market reacted positively to the political developments with both the broad based All Share Price Index and S&P SL20 covering more liquid shares gaining sharply on Friday on a respectable turnover. That, of course, does not mean that investors are now confident that Sri Lanka has turned the corner and is back on track towards regaining political and economic stability. Stock indicators are volatile and their signals are for the day; not even for the short term. Important considerations on whether a new prime minister and government are going to be good for the country will include the external view. The West is likely to favour present developments and India may fall in line. Whether China will come on board is an open question.
Soon after his swearing, Ranil Wickremesinghe said that the Galle Face protests will be allowed to continue as at present and there will be no interference. But hours before he said that police warned over loudspeakers on the green that a curfew was on and nobody was permitted in public places. But they didn’t enforce their threat. Already burnt by their tepid response to the Temple Trees horde setting upon the ‘Gota Go Home’ crowd, the Rambukkana shooting and perhaps what happened to SDIG Deshabandu Tennekoon, the cops were pussyfooting. But the ‘clear the green’ announcement would not have been made without clearance from the top. Now there’s a ‘lay off’ order from the new PM. So let’s wait and see how events unfold.
Running, hunting and flying trapeze
Friday 27th May, 2022
What was widely expected of the SLPP and the Opposition, by way of their contribution to resolving the current economic crisis, was the formation of a national unity government. Religious dignitaries and civil organisations campaigned hard to bring the warring parties together, and political leaders had the public believe that they were making a serious effort to form a multi-party Cabinet, but the mountain that laboured has brought forth a mouse—a deformed one at that.
Some of the newly-appointed ministers are at daggers drawn. They have turned hostile towards even President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Ministers Harin Fernando and Manusha Nanayakkara continue to inveigh against the President. Fernando has, at a recent media briefing, repeated some of the allegations he levelled against the President and other members of the Rajapaksa family while he was in the Opposition. He and Nanayakkara are obviously trying to remain in the good books of the irate public by criticising the President and the SLPP while being members of the Rajapaksa government. But the problem with running with the hare and hunting with the hounds is that there comes a time when the person doing so does not know whether he/she is running or hunting.
It is hoped that the ongoing uneasy political cohabitation between the SLPP and a section of the Opposition does not exemplify a local saying about connubiality –– ‘even the shadow of a doomed marriage is crooked’. There should be a healthy relationship between the President and the Cabinet if the government is to be prevented from becoming a two-headed donkey that tries to pull in two different directions simultaneously. A toxic relationship between the President and the Cabinet or some members thereof takes its toll on the performance of a government, as has been our experience. We have witnessed such scenarios twice during the past two decades, or so.
President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and the UNF ministers including Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe fought bitterly from 2001 to 2004. President Kumaratunga had to stomach many indignities at the hands of the UNF ministers. Their enmity stood the LTTE in good stead. President Kumaratunga finally sacked the UNF administration. There was a similar situation from 2015 to 2019; President Maithripala Sirisena and the UNF Cabinet including PM Wickremesinghe hardly did anything other than fighting so much so that the former sought to dislodge the UNP-led government and hold a general election only to be left with egg on his face courtesy of a landmark Supreme Court ruling against his rash executive action. Their clashes rendered the yahapalana government dysfunctional and led to national security being severely compromised; a group of terrorists struck with ease on 21 April 2019, destroying more than 270 lives in churches and hotels, as a result.
Meanwhile, Ministers and high-ranking state officials must not be at loggerheads. The need for a healthy relationship between the Cabinet and the bureaucracy for the country to face challenges, overcome crises and achieve progress cannot be overemphasised. When Basil Rajapaksa was the Finance Minister, it was reported that the then Central Bank (CB) Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal had not been able to meet him for months to discuss vital issues concerning the economy.
The Finance Minister and the CB Governor are like two aerialists who perform flying trapeze; they must have absolute faith in each other, and be adept at synchronised movements if disaster is to be averted. In the case of Sri Lanka’s economic circus, there is no safety net. A government must not expect the CB Governor to perform monetary pole dancing. One may recall that a CB chief who chose to display his skills on the pole in a bid to entertain his political masters, during the yahapalana government, had to flee the country, in the buff, as it were.
CB officials have recently revealed before the COPE (Committee on Public Enterprises) that they warned of an economic meltdown about two years ago, but their efforts to convince the government of the need to take urgent action to straighten up the economy were in vain. One could only hope that a similar situation will not happen again, and the political authority will listen to expert advice and do what needs to be done urgently to save the economy, and grant relief to the public calling out for help.
Govt. playing with fire
Thursday 26th May, 2022
The government seems determined to perpetuate people’s suffering. It claims that adequate fuel stocks are available in the country, but pumps at most filling stations have run dry, and long lines of vehicles are seen everywhere. When the fuel supply was restricted, recently, despite the unloading of two or three oil shipments in quick succession, it became obvious that the government was planning to jack up petroleum prices. What was feared came to pass; oil prices increased. But the fuel shortage remains.
What prevents the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation from maintaining an uninterrupted fuel supply if it has enough stocks? Is it starving the market again with a view to effecting another price hike? The only thing it does promptly is to close the filling stations where clashes occur; this measure only aggravates the suffering of the peaceful people. Why can’t the police prevent such incidents at petrol stations, where they have a significant presence?
More than 40 filling stations have been closed countrywide, owing to clashes, according to media reports. It is only natural that tempers flare when people languishing in queues for long hours have to return home without fuel. Most people spend more than 12 hours in queues to obtain petrol and diesel. How would Minister of Power and Energy Kanchana Wijesekera, who has filling stations closed at the drop of a hat, feel if he happened to queue up for fuel and return empty-handed after hours of waiting?
Minister Wijesekera talks nineteen to the dozen in an accusing tone that suggests that he thinks the people have bankrupted the country and got their comeuppance. Let him be reminded that he is part of a failed government, whose leaders have ruined the country by mismanaging its economy and helping themselves to public funds; he is also responsible for the current mess. He should be considerate towards the people, and take action to ensure that fuel is distributed efficiently, instead of lecturing to them. He and his bosses ought to realise that they are playing with fire. They know what it is like when public anger spills over on to the streets, don’t they?
Fathers of crisis
Parliament is not without some good men and women who take their legislative duties and functions seriously and do their utmost to safeguard the interests of the hapless public. The Chairman and some members of the COPE (Committee on Public Enterprises) are among them. They have exposed various rackets in the public sector and censured errant state officials. They deserve public plaudits.
COPE Chairman Prof. Charitha Herath has called for a PSC (Parliamentary Select Committee) to find out who is responsible for ruining the economy and bankrupting the country. There is no need for an investigation to identify those who have reduced the country to penury.
The present economic crisis is not of recent origin, but it is the current regime that worsened it. The blame for the current mess should be apportioned to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, who held the finance portfolio, and former Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa. They did not heed expert advice, and ran the country like a petti kade in Medamulana. It has now been revealed that the Central Bank economists warned of an economic crisis well in advance, and called for action to avert it, but the government chose to ignore their warning.
A PSC probe, if conducted impartially, will help officially establish who is responsible for the economic meltdown. It must also be found out how US dollars disappeared from the country so fast, and whether there is any truth in the allegation that large amounts of foreign currency were smuggled out systematically during the past two years or so.
People have no faith in PSC probes thanks to the one into the Treasury bond scams, under the yahapalana government. The ruling party members of the PSC that investigated the bond racket behaved like a bunch of ruffians, insulting and intimidating the Central Bank (CB) officials, who testified against the then CB Governor Arjuna Mahendran. They stooped so low as to spoil the final COPE report with a slew of footnotes, and the Central Bank officials were prevented from countering their flawed arguments.
If a PSC is to be set up to investigate the economic crisis, the right persons will have to be appointed as its members, the majority of whom should come from the Opposition, if it is not to end up being another Treasury bond probe committee.
Failures as pillars
Wednesday 25th May, 2022
Failures are the pillars of the incumbent government. Most of the newly-reappointed ministers have earned notoriety for incompetence and dishonesty. With them as Cabinet members, does the country need any enemies? The resignation of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa was expected to pave the way for the formation of a multi-party, interim government. But nothing of the sort has happened, and failed politicians are going places, again. Worse, the most important Cabinet post remains vacant; the Finance Minister has not yet been appointed although the economy is in a tailspin—so much for the government’s sense of priority and urgency! The Cabinet is like a third-rate ‘mega’ soap opera that drags on without the title character.
When one says the members of the new Cabinet are incompetent, one does not mean that there are other MPs—in the government or the Opposition—who are equal to the task of steering the country out of the present crisis under their own steam. The holier-than-thou members on both sides of the aisle have failed, albeit to varying degrees, and contributed to the current mess. The less said about the government MPs, the better, and the only thing the Opposition worthies are adept at is backseat driving; they claim to know the way, but cannot drive when they are provided with an opportunity. If so, why are these politicians being urged to sink their differences and form a national unity government?
The best contribution the members of Parliament could make to crisis management is to behave. That way they could help restore political and social order, which is a prerequisite for economic recovery. As long as they are at one another’s jugular, political stability will elude this country, making it impossible to put the economy back on an even keel. The International Monetary Fund, upon which the country is dependent for a bailout package, has expressed serious concern about socio-political upheavals here.
If the political parties co-operate in Parliament for the sake of the people, who are undergoing immense suffering, there will be political stability in the country at large. On 09 May, and the following day, we saw what they were really capable of. Supporters of both the government and the Opposition were involved in the spate of violence that rocked the country. Hence the need for their leaders to cooperate in Parliament, without fanning flames of violence. It is imperative that the government refrain from engineering crossovers from the Opposition, and make a serious effort to secure the support of its political opponents.
It’s fuel pricing formula, stupid!
The present-day rulers used to rake Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera over the coals whenever fuel prices were increased under the yahapalana government. The then Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa even cycled to Parliament when petrol and diesel prices slightly increased. Today, fuel prices have gone into the stratosphere.
The SLPP grandees who made a song and dance about Mangala’s fuel pricing formula tell us that they have adopted the same method to determine fuel prices. They should apologise to Mangala posthumously.
The government says the public will gain from the fuel pricing formula in case of the appreciation of the rupee. It is going to be a long wait!
The Cabinet will revise fuel prices on a monthly basis, according to media reports. One shudders to think what will happen in case of monthly price revisions. Fuel prices will continue to soar, and driving/riding might be a luxury only the super rich can enjoy. The ‘babies’ of the ruling family might be able to turn Colombo into an F1 street circuit without any resistance from the public.
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