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Ranil waiting for a nekatha?



A front page report in Thursday’s The Island read “NL slot: Ranil still dilly-dallying.” Dilly-dallying was the right word for describing what Wickremesinghe is doing about filling the single National List slot his party won following its zero seat debacle at the last parliamentary election. The report under reference quoted UNP Chairman Vajira Abeywardena saying that Wickremesinghe had not yet decided to occupy this still vacant seat to which his party must make a formal nomination. Several weeks earlier the UNP had decided that Wickremesinghe must take that place. According to Abeywardena, the party’s “leader for life,” as some deride him, would decide on returning to parliament (or not, we presume) in a month or two. But recent weeks have shown Ranil showing his face in the political scene, though from outside parliament, via media interviews and public appearances signaling that he’s not yet past tense.

Soon after his party’s rout last August, Wickremesinghe went on record saying he will not accept the National List position, but he showed no signs whatever of giving up the UNP leadership. President J.R. Jayewardene, Ranil’s kinsman and mentor, crafted the 1978 constitution to ensure via a proportional representation (PR) system for future elections that no major party can suffer a landslide defeat. The UNP had suffered one under the old Westminster-style order in 1956 when late Prime Minister SWRD Bandaranaike said that “the last nail had been driven into the UNP’s coffin.” The SLFP led by Bandaranaike’s widow suffered the same fate in 1977 when the once proud old left, comprising the Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP) and Communist Party (CP), suffered the same zero debacle that was the UNP’s lot at the last election. Under the previous order there were no National List straws for drowning political parties to clutch.

JRJ proved Bandaranaike wrong at the Colombo Municipal Council election that the followed the 1956 “people’s revolution” when the UNP, which governed the country since Independence, was stunningly swept out of office. By March 1960, after Bandaranaike’s tragic assassination, the greens were back in national office, albeit briefly. But five years later, the party served a full term under Prime Minister Dudley Senanayake until a second debacle hit it in 1970. Such blows, no doubt, influenced Jayewardene to use the five sixth majority he won in 1977 under a constituency system to build constitutional safeguards against history repeating itself. But the best laid plans of mice and men can go awry as the contemporary political history of this country has amply demonstrated.

If Ranil Wickremesinghe did not wish to occupy the UNP’s only National List seat in Parliament when his party decided he should fill it, he should or could have said so. He did clearly say that he will not take that seat in the immediate aftermath of the last election resulting in other’s staking claims and John Amaratunga, a party heavyweight, believing he would be back in the legislature. Thereafter the weeks and months were allowed to roll by leaving the whole matter suspended in midair. Wickremesinghe, who has been prime minister of this country several times, has by his conduct both in and out of office shown that he is a believer in the beneficial effect of attending various poojas in South India and probably has astrological beliefs. As such, none can be blamed for wondering whether he is awaiting a propitious moment – a nekatha – to return to Parliament if such is his intention. Given his recent interviews, last week on the Colombo Port City which his coalition promised to scrap but only delayed at substantial cost to the nation, and his retention of the UNP’s leadership, he does not seem to want to cut and run or retire gracefully.

The western traditions towards which he had long tilted would have required him to quit after a debacle of the proportions of August 2020. This he did not do. As UNP leader, he thrice chose not to run for president, first conceding the opposition slot to Sarath Fonseka, then to Maithripala Sirisena and finally to Sajith Premadasa whom he wanted to field not as UNP leader but as deputy leader. Premadasa did not accept that, split the UNP taking most of its parliamentary group with him, leaving Ranil with a rump. Some analysts would say that the not running concessions were made in the belief that two of those candidate’s would not win. In Sirisena’s case, the common opposition candidature was structured in a manner that enabled Wickremesinghe to call the shots if victory was achieved.

But it must also be said in Wickremesinghe’s defence that he probably would have won the 2005 presidential election but for the LTTE’s intervention, closing exit points from territory the Tigers held to government-controlled areas where polling stations were located, preventing thousands of
Tamils from voting. It has been alleged that there was heavy rigging at the previous presidential race which Ranil narrowly lost. He’s among the most experienced among our politicians, thrice served as prime minister, had long stints as opposition leader and is widely acknowledged as man of ability. He is slightly older than President Gotabaya Rajapaksa (both were born in 1949) but younger than Mahinda. Wickremesinghe catapulted to the UNP leadership as a result of the assassinations of Gamini Dissanayake, Lalith Athulathmudali and Ranasinghe Premadasa.

JRJ once famously said that he had succeeded in climbing the greasy pole outliving his opponents. But none of them were assassinated. It’s difficult to figure out now what Wickremesinghe’s game plan is. He is keeping his cards close to his chest and fending off questions during occasional public appearances.

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More heavy lifting to be done



As President Ranil Wickremesinghe tirelessly stressed, the signing off on the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with the International Monetary Fund marks a new beginning. “Forget the past and the old games,” he has said seeking the cooperation of both the opposition and the media for a great leap forward. He has made the point that the IMF arrangement of USD 2.9 billion opens the doors for further credit adding up to USD 7 billion from elsewhere. When he met editors and other media heads on Thursday he said we have to continue negotiations with bilateral and multi-lateral lenders as well as private creditors which he admitted would be the most difficult.

The bad news when this was being written on Friday was that unless there is a dramatic change of heart on the part of the executive, the likelihood of the scheduled local government elections in the foreseeable future appears more than remote. There are, of course, a clutch of cases before the courts at present and which way the determinations will go is not clear right now; also in which direction the dice will roll once the courts rule. But it is patently clear that both the president and the government want these elections as much as they want a hole in the head.

There is no need to labour the reason why the incumbent establishment does not want local elections at the present moment. This, notwithstanding SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam’s mealy-mouthed protestations that his party does not wish these elections put off. The electorate is very well aware that these elections cannot mean a change of government. Wickremesinghe is safely ensconced on his presidential throne until Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s term runs out in November 2024. Wickremesinghe is constitutionally empowered to dissolve parliament whenever he wishes from now until then. That’s the whip-hand he holds over his SLPP backers who made him president. It will safely ensure that they will not rock the boat during his tenure.

Just as much as the president and his government do not want any election in the short term, the opposition parties are literally panting that these be held soonest for reasons that are all too obvious. The last time the country elected local bodies was in February 2018 and the Rajapaksa party was the comfortable winner. The credit for this within the SLPP was widely apportioned to Basil Rajapaksa, its national organizer. That election victory heralded the coming of Gotabaya Rajapaksa in November 2019 and the Mahinda Rajapaksa government the following August. This is why the opposition, principally Sajith Premadasa’s SJB and the JVP-led National People’s Power (NPP), is striving might and main to have this election one way or another. The present signal is that they will not succeed in this endeavour. But as in cricket, there is no certainty in the outcome.

Though the president requested that the old games must not be played any longer, his supporters don’t practice what he preaches. There was a vulgar display of firecracker lighting, in true Sri Lankan style, greeting the announcement that the IMF deal was through. Everybody and his brother well know that this polluting lighting of strings of firecrackers greeting election results, politicians arriving at meetings and other similar events are funded by the politicians themselves. Some ghouls even lit crackers when President Premadasa was assassinated. We don’t know whether last week’s cracker lighting was a command performance or of old habits persisting. Whatever it was, it was unseemly.

The mere fact the IMF deal is through does not mean that the country is going to emerge from the economic morass in which it is mired. A great deal of heavy lifting remains to be done. The initial benefits cannot be more than a trickle. Possibly the June negotiations down the road may be an opportunity to offer some tax relief to professionals loudly protesting that the new rates are totally unrealistic. We run a letter from a retired Commissioner General of Inland Revenue in this issue who says that in his view, the problem is not with the rate of taxation which is between six and 36% but with the exemption threshold.

He rightly says that given today’s hyper-inflation. high cost of electricity, water and essential food, the Rs. 1.2 million exemption threshold is far too low. He believes that if this is raised to at least Rs. 1.8 million a year, it may be possible to win the unions over and reduce the tax burden on high income professionals. He has said this should not impact on the IMF agreements and the time has come for a compromise between the government and protesters. Clearly the now retired writer will not have access to actual numbers. But given his long service in the tax department, he would have an instinct for these matters.

It is also pertinent to say here that it is time the government makes a statement about the safety of the country’s banking sector. There are many worries on this score particularly after what happened recently in the U.S. and in Switzerland. It is well known that our state banks have been captive lenders to insolvent state-owned enterprises with such loans underwritten by the government. The fact that the IMF deal was successfully concluded, no doubt, is a reassuring factor about the stability of our commercial banking system. Nevertheless, a statement from the government will reassure constituents.

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Political pole dancing



Saturday 25th March, 2023

There is no such thing as national interest in Sri Lankan politics, as is public knowledge. What looks like it is only self-interest in disguise. One often has politicians in this country saying they are promoting national interest, but what they are actually doing is pursuing self-interest. It is against this backdrop that former President Maithripala Sirisena’s claim that his love for the country has driven him to call for a national government to tackle the current economic crisis should be viewed.

Sirisena is full of praise for President Ranil Wickremesinghe and the government for having secured an IMF loan, and insists that there is nothing wrong with the conditions on which the extended fund facility has been made available! Sirisena was one of the bitterest critics of the incumbent dispensation, and there was bad blood between him and Wickremesinghe, but he is now backing them to the hilt. What has made him do an about-turn?

Sirisena has chosen to perform political pole dancing, as it were, to humour the government leaders since last January, when the Supreme Court (SC), which heard a fundamental rights violation petition against him and several others, ordered him to pay Rs. 100 million by way of compensation for his failure to prevent the Easter Sunday carnage in 2019. The SC order prompted those who are seeking justice for the victims of terrorist bombings to renew their demand that criminal proceedings be instituted against Sirisena, as recommended by the Special Presidential Commission of Inquiry, which probed the Easter Sunday terror strikes. Sirisena is now at the mercy of President Wickremesinghe, who alone can prevent the Attorney General’s Department from taking criminal action against anyone.

During the final stages of the Yahapalana government, Sirisena wronged Wickremesinghe, having secured the coveted presidency with the latter’s help in 2015. He stooped so low as to join forces with the Rajapaksas in a bid to sack the then Prime Minister Wickremesinghe although he had made a solemn pledge to throw them behind bars for what they had done during the Mahinda Rajapaksa government. In an unexpected turn of events, Wickremesinghe and the Rajapaksas are now savouring power together; Sirisena is seeking a political menage a trois in a bid to save his skin more than anything else.

Unfortunately for Sirisena, the Rajapaksa-Wickremesinghe government has no need for him. It knows that he is only trying to make a virtue of necessity, for most of the SLFP MPs (elected from the SLPP) numbering 14 have already crossed over! But Sirisena is not likely to abandon his efforts to make himself attractive to the government, given his desperation to avoid criminal action over the Easter Sunday bombings.

If Sirisena’s worst fear comes to pass, he will find himself in jail, and his political career will come to an end in such an eventuality. So, he is doing his darnedest to be in the good books of President Wickremesinghe and the government and will not hesitate to subjugate the policies of the SLFP to his self-interest.

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Unions in govt.’s crosshairs



Friday 24th March, 2023

Hardly a day passes without a labour dispute reported from the state sector. There are signs of public opinion turning against the warring trade unions that resort to strikes at the drop of a hat. The government has sought to make the most of public ire to settle political scores with the trade unions that pose a threat to its interests.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe has taken a swipe at the education sector trade unions that are perennially on the warpath. Speaking at a public event, on Wednesday, he warned that if trade unions continued to ‘hold students to ransom’, the government would be compelled to declare the education sector an essential service. This could be considered a veiled threat.

The most effective way of keeping trade unions with political agendas at bay is to redress workers’ genuine grievances expeditiously. Instead, governments drive them to swell the ranks of trade unions with links to ultra-radical political outfits. So, the blame for chaos in the public sector due to frequent labour disputes should be apportioned to governments.

Workers must fight for their rights. If they don’t, who else will? But they must not ignore their responsibilities. Most of all, they must not test people’s patience. Sri Lanka’s trade union movement has a proud history. Its achievements are many. But it has gone the same way as all other institutions, over the years, owing to politicisation. More often than not, trade unions tend to overstep the line at the behest of their political masters.

The bane of Sri Lanka’s labour movement is that it is dominated by trade unions affiliated to political parties, which use workers as a cat’s paw to advance their hidden agendas at the expense of the public. There are some trade unions that are independent of political parties but they are the exception that proves the rule. They, too, act in an irresponsible manner at times with no consideration towards the public.

Everybody flays politicians for dereliction of duty—and rightly so. But trade unions are no better. It is doubtful whether labour leaders ever make a serious attempt to persuade their members to work hard and help enhance national productivity. The phenomenal growth of shadow education, or private tuition, as it is popularly known, is an indictment of the state sector teachers. Parents have to spend huge amounts of money for their children’s supplementary education. There are many exemplary teachers who are like candles, which burn so that others can get light, but overall there is much to be desired from the public school system.

All political parties including the UNP led by President Wickremesinghe himself have politicised and polluted the trade union movement so much so that politicians steal the limelight on the International Workers’ Day, when workers shamelessly offer their services to political leaders as palanquin bearers, as it were. Politicians craftily use workers to compass their ends when they happen to be in the political wilderness but after winning elections and being ensconced in power, they suppress trade unions. This is the name of the game in Sri Lankan politics.

Trade unions in this country are apparently playing the role traditionally assigned to the political Opposition, which is too meek to take on the government the way it should. Why trade unions are in the government’s crosshairs is not difficult to understand. The ongoing battle between government leaders and irresponsible trade unionists is, in our book, a case of sinners casting stones at one another.

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