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Quo Vadis Sri Lanka Tourism, Post Covid-19?

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By Srilal Miththapala

There seems to be conflicting ideas as to how tourism should be promoted in the short term, in the post Covid -19 arena. A wide range of good initiatives have been proposed from various experts. We must not get carried away by emotion, and resort to ‘crystal ball gazing’, but make our plans, based on evidence and research.

What seems to be overlooked is the need to properly understand the post Covid-19 consumer behaviour, and only focus source markets. Finally, it is the consumer who will decide, whoever he may be.

The bottom line is that the ‘tourism world’ is not going to come back to normal for quite some time. Like everything else in our lives, consumers also will respond in a ‘new normal’ framework. Hence applying our traditional marketing strategies will not necessarily work in this uncertain environment. Many may accuse me of being a pessimist. But I would like to be understood as a pragmatist.

This essay will try to analyse the consumer mind set in the post CoVid-19 scenario, and then try to develop what marketing strategies would work to match these consumer needs.

1.0 Introduction

The coronavirus crisis is having massive impacts on the tourism industry—many of which will reshape the industry’s future landscape. What actions should the stakeholders of this industry be taking today from a marketing and communications perspective? The truth is no one knows for sure. We are all in the dark. However, a business-as-usual approach is almost certainly wrong because there is nothing “usual” about this new life we’re all living and what’s happening to the tourism industry right now.

Just when the crisis seemed to be abating, we are now hit by a new variant of the virus that could have more disastrous impact. However, initial reports indicate that although it could be more infections than the Delta strain, the severity of the illness is probably less severe. It is still uncertain how different countries will respond to this new challenge.

2.0 Tourism Recovery

A recent global survey of UNWTO tourism experts on the recovery of travel shows a slight increase in confidence with 60 percent of consumers saying they expect to see a rebound in international tourism by 2022, versus just 50 percent in an earlier January 2021 survey.

In spite of this slight boost in confidence, nearly half of the respondents said that they did not expect international tourism to return to 2019 levels until 2024 or later. Similarly, 37 percent fewer respondents now believe 2023 could be the full recovery year.

In another study by Deloitte’s for Australia Tourism, there were three different scenarios presented.

Mild (best case) – international arrivals return to 2019 level by 2022.

Harsh (probable) – International tourist arrivals return to 2019 level by 2023.

Severe (worst case) – International arrivals return to 2019 level by 2025.

Boston Consulting Group predicts that travel won’t rebound to 2019 levels until 2023 or 2024. “The tourism business is driven by the great intangible of consumer confidence. Regardless of therapeutics or vaccine availability, second or third waves, or the efficacy of safety protocols, the industry won’t fully recover until travellers and service providers do so psychologically.”

Hence most studies indicate that it will be 2023 by the time tourism recovers to pre Covid-19 levels.

(it must be noted that all such studies were done before the new Omicron outbreak and how that is going to impact consumer sentiment is still to be seen.)

To expect arrival numbers to reach the pre Covid-19 of about 100,000 – 150,000 per month in the next 12 months in Sri Lanka is a pipe dream. (We have just reached 100,000 arrivals for the year, only about 7% of pre Covid-19 days)

Hence, its high time that stakeholders accept that full recovery of tourism is going to be another 12-18 months away.

Tourism professionals should take cognisance of this, and plan for it. They should adjust their strategies, accordingly, to survive and make the best of the situation in the short term. This does not mean that there will be no tourism in 2021. Certainly, there will be, and what will follow in this essay, is to try and understand the consumer mind-set of these travellers, who would venture out in spite of certain uncertainties.

(TTRW: MADRID, 2 December 2021: One out of five destinations continue to have their borders completely closed as new surges of Covid-19 impact the restart of international tourism, while the WHO declaration identifying Omicron as a variant of concern will prompt additional restrictions.

The latest UNWTO research shows that still 98% of all destinations have some travel restrictions in place.)

3.0 Marketing in the short term after Covid-19

It is needless to say that under such circumstances where survival would be the focus, positioning and branding will have to take a back seat. But that does not mean to say that planning should stop. The time could be spent by all stakeholders to properly develop a positioning for the country and to ‘extract out’ what our real USP is. At a recent webinar I heard suggestions for a whole range of ‘unique propositions’ from cultural pageants, wildlife, nature, environment, food, wellness, ‘experience,’ etc. (there is a misnomer in considering ‘experience’ as a category. It is true that most tourists pay great emphasis on experience. But the ‘experience’ should cut across every category, be it wild life, wellness or food).

Obviously, Sri Lanka as a destination cannot be ‘everything for everyone’. Sometimes I think this blessing of a range of natural attractions, is Sri Lanka tourism’s problem. We have too much! Because we are blessed with a plethora of natural beauty and attractions, it’s easy to be carried away, and try to promote everything. It is my humble opinion that even launching the muchtalked- about Global Campaign is not advisable at this time. It is true that we have waited a long time for this. But is the market ready for it at this juncture?

The need of the hour is a short-term push marketing initiative, to ‘push’ the product and service attributes of Sri Lanka that will appeal to the prospective travellers in this uncertain market environment. The ‘pull’ marketing strategy, whereby we reach out to travellers with our brand attributes and unique propositions to create new customers, should follow thereafter, once some form of proper and consistent normalcy has arrived.

So the priority in the short term is the need for a strong communication programme to reach out to the smaller, specific segments of consumers who would consider traveling in next 12-18 months.

The ‘tourism cake’ has shrunk. And everyone (all tourism destinations) are trying to get a share.

So how does Sri Lanka reach out and get a bigger share of this cake?

4.0 The need for evidence-based decision-making.

SL tourism has never given too much prominence to research and evidence-based decision-making. I guess it is no surprise when the leadership of the whole country depends on soothsayers and astrologers and quack–brewed concoctions to rid the CoVid19 virus, while the sane voices of the professionals are given a deaf ear.

But then again tourism is such an interesting subject that everyone from streetside vendors to desk-based government bureaucrats and inexperienced and clueless ministers, are experts on the subject. Even tourism professionals tend to lean on their old experiences and emotions, rather than, on good research. The need for a private -public sector partnered tourism research unit has been talked about ad nauseam. (I myself have presented many proposals for such an initiative over the past years.)

The crying need of the hour (and of course in the long term as well) is to have good reliable feedback about the tourism market. Would it be difficult to interview the few tourists who are coming to Sri Lanka at the airport? Why did they decide to travel? Why did they choose Sri Lanka? Were they satisfied with their stay?, etc.

Such simple questions will give feedack which will be so useful to tweak our offering and to be more focused on our future promotional efforts. The importance should be on the return on every dollar spent on promotion in these difficult times, and not on the value of the promotion.

5.0 Short Term ‘Push’ Marketing –

Segmentation

In trying to develop such a communication plan, (I use the word plan and not strategy since it is short term oriented) the first focus should be on the tourism consumer. One way to segment the traveller would be based on mind-set.

5.1 The Potential

travellers.

The possible consumer segments in the immediate post-Covid-19 era and their general characteristics could be as follows-

‘Devil may care’ traveller

The impetuous, young, adventurous risk takers. Not concerned about pandemic. Possibly with limited financial resources. (The conventional backpackers would also fall into this category but their monetary standing, post- CoVid-19 may be wanting)

‘Tread carefully’‘ traveller

Earns to travel. Will check all pros and cons on social media and other media channels and make careful decisions about travelling. Possibly young/middle aged, well-educated with adequate disposable income.

‘Wait and See’ traveller

Ultra-safety conscious and anxious about travelling. Possibly middle aged or Senior citizens, families with young children. Adequate financial resources.

It is evident that the segment who would travel under current prevailing circumstances would be predominately the ‘Devil-may-care’ Traveller, and to a lesser degree the ‘Tread carefully’ traveller segment. It will be quite a while before the ‘Wait and see’ traveller ventures out, and therefore there is no point in spending resources in engaging that category.

Hence it is not rocket science to conclude that a short term push marketing initiative must be specifically targeted at these two segments.

5.2 The Generic Consumer segments (Generational profiling)

The usually accepted generic consumer demographic segments are-

Silent Generation -Born 1925-1945; Current Ave. age 80’s- Small size

= Hard working

=Conservative

= Healthy, and most educated

= Wealthiest generation

Baby Boomers – Born 1945-1960; Current Ave. age 70’s-Medium size

= Larger families

= Non traditional

= Physically fit

= Wealthy

= Leisure activities

Generation X –Born 1960-1980; Current Ave. age 50’s-Large size

= Enjoy creative input and resourceful

= Embrace technology and social media

= Strong emphasis on family time and work-life balance

= Hard working

= Financially well off

= Comfortable with technology

Generation Y (Millennials)-Born 1980-1990; Current Ave. age 30’s-Large size

= Diverse

= Impatient

= Creative

= Multi-taskers

= Internet and social media part of their lives

= Reasonably wealthy

Generation Z – Born 1990-present; Current Ave. age< 30’s- Medium size

= Self-reliant

= Risk takers

= Can be suspicious of larger corporations

= Not too brand loyal

= Short span of interest

=Fully ‘wired’ almost always

= Reliant on social media platforms

= Very concerned about environment, ethics and social wellbeing of people

Although this categorisation is predominantly relevant to developed countries, with globalisation and the spread of the internet, it is valid for most emerging countries as well.

The types of traveller identified earlier can now be matched with the generation profile characterises to help target the required segment, with an appropriate and relevant commination initiative.

This indicates that the market segments most likely to travel in the short term are

Gen Z (medium size)

Gen Y (large size)

Gen X –to a lesser extent (Large size)

6.0 Short Term ‘Push’ Marketing- The Communication

So how do you reach out to the Generation Z’s and Y’s ?

The answer is to study their inherent characteristics, and respond accordingly to what motivates them.

 The platform must necessary be digital.

 The medium must be internet based. Social media, blogs, etc. (Brochures, print media and trade fairs will not work. Even Facebook is outdated)

 The message should be based around-

= Health and Safety. ( this will be of paramount importance to all segments)

= Short and sweet, to the point

= Authentic and reliable

= Personalised, small scale programs

= Meaningful stories

= More pictures & Videos

= Highlight social and community benefits

= Ethical travel themes

= Travel for a cause

= Environment, outdoor,

= Nature and wildlife

= Off the beaten track

= Wellness and meditation/yoga

Hence once an analytical approach is taken to identify key market segments based on demographics it will be easier to target the desired travellers with a cost effective communications programme.

6.0 Conclusion

In the foregoing I have attempted to show how an analytical approach based on good consumer data, could be, designed and implemented. This is by no means a perfect model, and is presented only as an example. Professional markers will be able to design more comprehensive initiatives. The important fact is that needs to be highlighted is that we must break out of our shackles of being the ‘know-it-all s’ and reach out to good research and information to base our plans on.

Otherwise, Sri Lanka Tourism will continue to blunder around with its’ sawn off double-barrelled shot gun, spraying bullets all over, hitting only a rare target or two’.



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Opinion

From the Lecture Hall to the Global Market: How Sri Lankan students are mastering the “Gig Economy”

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Image : Courtesy South China Morning Post

Have you ever wondered how a university student, between heavy textbooks and late-night study sessions, manages to earn a professional income in US dollars? It sounds like a dream, but for thousands of Sri Lankans, it’s becoming a daily reality through online freelancing.

A recent study published in the Ianna Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies has pulled back the curtain on this digital revolution. By interviewing 21 successful student freelancers across Sri Lanka, researchers have mapped out exactly what it takes to turn a laptop and an internet connection into a thriving career.

The Rise of the “Earn-as-you-learn” Era

In Sri Lanka, the number of online freelancers has exploded from about 20,000 in 2016 to over 150,000 today. While our traditional education system often focuses on preparing students for 9-to-5 office jobs , these students are diving into the “Gig Economy” a digital marketplace where they sell specific skills, like graphic design or programming, to clients all over the world.

The Secret Sauce for Success

So, what makes some students succeed while others struggle? The research found that it isn’t just about being good at coding or design. Success comes down to six “Core Pillars”:

· A Growth Mindset: The digital world moves fast. Successful students don’t just learn one skill; they are constantly updating themselves to ensure they don’t become “outdated”

· The Balancing Act:

How do they handle exams and clients? They don’t use a magic wand; they use strict time management. Many work late into the night (from 6 p.m. to midnight) to accommodate international time zones.

· The Power of “Hello”:

Since most clients are in the USA or UK, strong English and clear communication are vital. It’s about more than just talking; it’s about negotiating prices and building trust.

· Proactive Problem Solving:

Successful freelancers don’t wait for things to go wrong. They update their clients regularly and fix issues before they become headaches.

Why This Matters for Sri Lanka

Right now, our universities don’t always teach “how to be a freelancer”. This study suggests that if we integrate freelancing modules and mentorship into our degree programs, we could significantly reduce graduate unemployment. It’s a way for students to gain financial independence and bring much-needed foreign currency into our economy while still in school.

You Can Do It Too

If you’re a student (or the parent of one), the message is clear: the global market is open for business. You don’t need to wait for graduation to start your career. With a bit of flexibility, a willingness to keep learning, and a proactive attitude, you can transition from a learner to an earner.

The Research Team Behind the Study

This groundbreaking research was conducted by a dedicated team from the Department of Business Management at the SLIIT Business School (Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology). The authors of the study include:

· Lihini Niranjana Dasanayaka

· Thuvindu Bimsara Madanayake

· Kalana Gimantha Jayasekara

· Thilina Dinidu Illepperuma

· Ruwanthika Chandrasiri

· Gayan Bandara

by Ruwanthika Chandrasiri

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Opinion

Is India a ‘swing state’? A response

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In an article titled “India shaping-up as model ‘swing state” (The Island 29.01.2026) Lynn Ockersz says, “Besides, this columnist would go so far as to describe India as a principal ‘Swing State.’ To clarify the latter concept in its essentials, it could be stated that the typical ‘Swing State’ wields considerable influence and power regionally and globally. Besides they are thriving democracies and occupy a strategic geographical location which enhances their appeal for other states of the region and enables them to relate to the latter with a degree of equableness. Their strategic location makes it possible for ‘Swing States’ to even mediate in resolving conflicts among states”.

A ‘swing state’, as in elections, should be able to decisively influence the final outcome. In the context in which India is recognised as a ‘swing state’ the final outcome should first be regional and then, if possible, extend to the rest of the world. And the desirable outcome must entail regional peace, cordial relations and economic stability which would constitute the most vital needs for any part of today’s world. Military power should not feature in the equation, for more often than not, such power is used to brow beat into submission the weak and the poor.

India no doubt is growing fast to be a global economic power and militarily also it is way ahead of the region. Its democracy, in the sense that democracies are measured in today’s world, also may be as the columnist says “thriving”. However, periodical elections, however fair they could be, should not be the sole criterion to judge democracy. If democracy cannot solve the problem of inequality it may lose its credibility as a mode of good governance. As a means of finding who rules, the system may be satisfactory but the other vital components of democracy, such as equitable wealth distribution, if lacking, the system may not serve its purpose.

Inequality in India is among the highest globally, with the top 1% owning nearly 40% of national wealth and the top 10% holding roughly 65% of total wealth and 58% of income. While the economy grows, the bottom 50% receives only 15% of the income. This disparity, driven by wealth concentration and low female labour participation, persists across class, caste, and gender. The income gap between the top 10% and the bottom 50% remained stable, with no significant reduction in inequality over the last decade.

India ranks very low in gender parity (127 out of 146 countries in the Global Gender Gap Report 2023). Female labour force participation is very low, at 15.7% (though government data suggests 41.7% by including agriculture and unpaid work). Women earn significantly less than men, working 53 hours per week compared to 43 for men. Inequality is intensified by existing social divides based on caste, religion, region, and gender. Access to healthcare is limited for many, with 63 million people pushed into poverty annually due to costs. Approximately 74% of India’s population could not afford a healthy diet in 2023. Roughly 64% of the total Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India comes from the bottom 50% of the population, whereas only 4% comes from the top 10% (Global Inequality Report 2024).

This sad state may not be the fault of democracy but the economic system of all so called democratic countries. The other three countries, Indonesia, South Africa and South Korea, that the columnist has named as suitable to be ‘swing states’ are no better. Neoliberalism and democracy are increasingly viewed by critics as an “evil nexus” or a destructive pairing, where the logic of the free market—privatisation, deregulation, and austerity—subverts the principles of democratic self-governance and social equality.

However, my main argument concerns the more important qualities that a country must possess to qualify as a ‘swing state’; the capacity to lead from the front in campaigning for peace and cordiality in the region. In this regard India fails miserably. The past with regards to good neighbourliness, where mighty India is concerned, tells a sad story. How it tried to solve the ethnic problem in Sri Lanka may be etched in the minds of those who lived in that era. The “parippu-drop” followed by gun-boat diplomacy saved the LTTE enabling it to continue with its murderous terrorism aimed at dividing the country. It was India who provided the initial “infra-structure” for training of terrorists who waged a thirty year war in Sri Lanka, committing brutal genocide against the Sinhalese and Muslims and not sparing the Tamils as well. India did not lift a finger to stop the bloodletting. Then it rammed the 13th A down our throats as a solution to the problem but did not keep to its terms and conditions which required it to disarm the LTTE. 13th A hangs over our head like the Sword of Damocles and India doesn’t fail to remind us about it from time to time. And we are burdened with the white elephant of provincial councils. Moreover, evidently India continues to interfere in our internal affairs, apparently colluding with the US, it may have had a hand in the regime change in Sri Lanka in 2022 (Shamindra Ferdinando, The Island, 04.02.2026). Another matter that appears to be perniciously secretive is that the Indian government doesn’t want the Sri Lankan government to reveal to its people the contents of the defence agreement it has entered into with the latter, as if people didn’t matter !

Now that tiny Sri Lanka is weakened and pliable after suffering multiple crises, India comes to its aid at the slightest mishap, very much like the hero who comes to the rescue of the damsel in distress, seemingly competing with other suitors. It doesn’t want the damsel to fall into the arms of China, given its geopolitical beauty.

Take the case of the other neighbours of India, does it have the capacity to swing, for instance, Pakistan into at least a position of less animosity. And what about its eastern neighbour, Bangladesh? They can’t even play cricket. Relations between India and Bangladesh, are currently under severe strain as of early 2026, driven by the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has been given asylum in India to the chagrin of Bangladesh. Tensions are high due to attacks on diplomats, stalled visa services, water disputes, and alleged interference. The unresolved sharing of the Teesta River and other transboundary rivers remains a major contention, with Bangladesh accusing India of managing these to its detriment. Concerns exist in New Delhi regarding Bangladesh strengthening ties with other nations like Pakistan, seen as a shift away from Indian influence (Altaf Moti, 2026).

Coming back to the conflict with its western neighbour Pakistan, since the 1947 partition, both countries have claimed Kashmir, a region inhabited by a majority Muslim population but initially ruled by a Hindu Maharaja, leading to wars in 1947, 1965, and 1999. India accuses Pakistan of supporting militant groups in Kashmir, a claim Pakistan denies, which has frequently led to military escalations, such as the 2019 Pulwama incident and 2025 strikes. The Indus Waters Treaty is under strain, with potential for conflict over control of water resources. Both nations are nuclear-armed, raising international concerns about regional stability. Recent tensions included increased cross-border firing, drone warfare, and suspected militant attacks in Kashmir, leading to retaliatory missile strikes. The conflict remains a major geopolitical issue, with tensions frequently escalating due to nationalist sentiment and a lack of diplomatic progress (Britanica, 2026).

Another matter of relevance is that India-Pakistan-Afghanistan relations are defined by a complex, triangular, and competitive dynamic. Following the 2021 Taliban takeover, India has adopted a pragmatic, security-focused approach, delivering humanitarian aid to Afghanistan via Iran to circumvent Pakistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan-Afghanistan ties have deteriorated over border disputes, prompting Kabul to seek warmer relations with India as a counterweight to Islamabad. Without formally recognising the Taliban, India has re-established a technical mission in Kabul to secure its interests, monitor anti-India groups, and maintain developmental influence, which directly challenges Pakistan’s historical influence in the region. Is such manoeuvring of regional relations a virtue of a ‘swing state’!

Paradoxically, India is developing a special friendship with the murderous regime of Netanyahu in Israel focussing on defence and anti-terrorism. Indian prime minister is planning to visit Israel towards the end of this month which would obviously boost the image and credibility of a ruler who has committed genocide of the Palestinians. The barb no doubt is intended to prick Pakistan. Could such a country bring peace to the region, which it must if it is to qualify as a ‘swing state’.

India seems to have good relations with its northern neighbour, little Nepal, though minor but persistent issues remain. Disputes, notably regarding the Kalapani-Limpiyadhura-Lipulekh area, have caused tensions. Nepal has, from time to time, requested, a revision of the 1950 Treaty, viewing it as unbalanced. Growing influence of other foreign powers (particularly China) in Nepal poses a strategic challenge for India.

The other northern neighbour, the giant, is a different kettle of fish. India has fought several wars with China and there are frequent border skirmishes. The rivalry between these two giants is second only to that between the US and China. The war for markets, influence and hegemony between these countries may one day tear the world apart.

India seems to be having border disputes with most of its neighbours. Fortunately, we have no common border with it but there is Katchatheevu, on which they have recently made a claim.

India being the big brother must take the initiative to resolve the disputes it has with its neighbours and work towards lasting peace in the region. The inability to do so reflects, more than the external factor, the internal depravity that plagues its politics. One has only to listen to its political leaders during election times to gauge the depth of racism they descend to in order to swing the votes. This phenomenon is more evident in their own ‘swing states’. This racism cannot be confined to its borders, it has to cross the borders and be projected to the neighbourhood, if the politicians are to appear to be truly patriotic. Thus, the border disputes and acrimony continue.

If peace, cordiality and economic stability are the desirable goals for the region – one cannot think of anything more important than these – India may not be the ‘swing state’ that could give leadership to the struggle that would finally bring these qualities to the region.

by N. A. de S. Amaratunga

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Opinion

Sovereignty without Governance is a hollow shield

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Globalisation exposes weakness and failed governance; and invites intervention – A message to all inept governments everywhere

The government of Burkina Faso has shattered the illusion of party politics, dissolving every political party in the nation. Its justification is blunt: parties divide the people, fracture sovereignty, and allow corrupt elites to hijack the sacred powers that belong to the citizenry.

This is not an aberration. It is the recurring disease of fragile states. Haiti, Somalia, Sudan, Venezuela, Sri Lanka—their governments collapse under the weight of incompetence, leaving their people abandoned and their sovereignty hollow. These failed states do not merely fail themselves; they burden the world. Their chaos spills across borders, draining the strength of nations that still stand.

Globalisation does not forgive weakness. It exposes it. And as global opinion hardens, a new world order is taking shape—one that no longer tolerates decay. The moment of rupture came when US President Donald Trump seized Nicolás Maduro from his Venezuelan hideout and dragged him to face justice in America.

Predictably, the chorus of populists cried “oil!” They shouted about imperialism while ignoring the rot of Maduro’s failed government and his collapse in legitimacy. But the truth is unavoidable: if Venezuela had been competently governed, Trump would never have had the opening to topple its leadership. Weakness invited conquest. Failure opened the door.

Singapore offers the perfect counterexample. It is perhaps the best-governed nation on earth, and for that reason it is untouchable. Strong governance is the only true shield of sovereignty. Without it, sovereignty is a brittle shell, a flag waving over ruins.

Trump’s precedent will echo across continents. China, Russia, India—regional powers are watching, calculating, preparing. The message is unmistakable: Sovereignty is conditional. It is not guaranteed by history or by law. It is guaranteed only by strength, by competence, by the will to govern effectively.

This is the revolutionary truth: nations that fail to govern themselves will be governed by others. The age of excuses is over. The age of accountability has begun. Weak governments will fall. Strong governments will endure. And the people, sovereign and indivisible, will demand leaders who can protect their destiny—or see them replaced by those who can.

By Brigadier (Rtd) Ranjan de Silva
rpcdesilva@gmail.com

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