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Quo Vadis Sri Lanka Tourism, Post Covid-19?

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By Srilal Miththapala

There seems to be conflicting ideas as to how tourism should be promoted in the short term, in the post Covid -19 arena. A wide range of good initiatives have been proposed from various experts. We must not get carried away by emotion, and resort to ‘crystal ball gazing’, but make our plans, based on evidence and research.

What seems to be overlooked is the need to properly understand the post Covid-19 consumer behaviour, and only focus source markets. Finally, it is the consumer who will decide, whoever he may be.

The bottom line is that the ‘tourism world’ is not going to come back to normal for quite some time. Like everything else in our lives, consumers also will respond in a ‘new normal’ framework. Hence applying our traditional marketing strategies will not necessarily work in this uncertain environment. Many may accuse me of being a pessimist. But I would like to be understood as a pragmatist.

This essay will try to analyse the consumer mind set in the post CoVid-19 scenario, and then try to develop what marketing strategies would work to match these consumer needs.

1.0 Introduction

The coronavirus crisis is having massive impacts on the tourism industry—many of which will reshape the industry’s future landscape. What actions should the stakeholders of this industry be taking today from a marketing and communications perspective? The truth is no one knows for sure. We are all in the dark. However, a business-as-usual approach is almost certainly wrong because there is nothing “usual” about this new life we’re all living and what’s happening to the tourism industry right now.

Just when the crisis seemed to be abating, we are now hit by a new variant of the virus that could have more disastrous impact. However, initial reports indicate that although it could be more infections than the Delta strain, the severity of the illness is probably less severe. It is still uncertain how different countries will respond to this new challenge.

2.0 Tourism Recovery

A recent global survey of UNWTO tourism experts on the recovery of travel shows a slight increase in confidence with 60 percent of consumers saying they expect to see a rebound in international tourism by 2022, versus just 50 percent in an earlier January 2021 survey.

In spite of this slight boost in confidence, nearly half of the respondents said that they did not expect international tourism to return to 2019 levels until 2024 or later. Similarly, 37 percent fewer respondents now believe 2023 could be the full recovery year.

In another study by Deloitte’s for Australia Tourism, there were three different scenarios presented.

Mild (best case) – international arrivals return to 2019 level by 2022.

Harsh (probable) – International tourist arrivals return to 2019 level by 2023.

Severe (worst case) – International arrivals return to 2019 level by 2025.

Boston Consulting Group predicts that travel won’t rebound to 2019 levels until 2023 or 2024. “The tourism business is driven by the great intangible of consumer confidence. Regardless of therapeutics or vaccine availability, second or third waves, or the efficacy of safety protocols, the industry won’t fully recover until travellers and service providers do so psychologically.”

Hence most studies indicate that it will be 2023 by the time tourism recovers to pre Covid-19 levels.

(it must be noted that all such studies were done before the new Omicron outbreak and how that is going to impact consumer sentiment is still to be seen.)

To expect arrival numbers to reach the pre Covid-19 of about 100,000 – 150,000 per month in the next 12 months in Sri Lanka is a pipe dream. (We have just reached 100,000 arrivals for the year, only about 7% of pre Covid-19 days)

Hence, its high time that stakeholders accept that full recovery of tourism is going to be another 12-18 months away.

Tourism professionals should take cognisance of this, and plan for it. They should adjust their strategies, accordingly, to survive and make the best of the situation in the short term. This does not mean that there will be no tourism in 2021. Certainly, there will be, and what will follow in this essay, is to try and understand the consumer mind-set of these travellers, who would venture out in spite of certain uncertainties.

(TTRW: MADRID, 2 December 2021: One out of five destinations continue to have their borders completely closed as new surges of Covid-19 impact the restart of international tourism, while the WHO declaration identifying Omicron as a variant of concern will prompt additional restrictions.

The latest UNWTO research shows that still 98% of all destinations have some travel restrictions in place.)

3.0 Marketing in the short term after Covid-19

It is needless to say that under such circumstances where survival would be the focus, positioning and branding will have to take a back seat. But that does not mean to say that planning should stop. The time could be spent by all stakeholders to properly develop a positioning for the country and to ‘extract out’ what our real USP is. At a recent webinar I heard suggestions for a whole range of ‘unique propositions’ from cultural pageants, wildlife, nature, environment, food, wellness, ‘experience,’ etc. (there is a misnomer in considering ‘experience’ as a category. It is true that most tourists pay great emphasis on experience. But the ‘experience’ should cut across every category, be it wild life, wellness or food).

Obviously, Sri Lanka as a destination cannot be ‘everything for everyone’. Sometimes I think this blessing of a range of natural attractions, is Sri Lanka tourism’s problem. We have too much! Because we are blessed with a plethora of natural beauty and attractions, it’s easy to be carried away, and try to promote everything. It is my humble opinion that even launching the muchtalked- about Global Campaign is not advisable at this time. It is true that we have waited a long time for this. But is the market ready for it at this juncture?

The need of the hour is a short-term push marketing initiative, to ‘push’ the product and service attributes of Sri Lanka that will appeal to the prospective travellers in this uncertain market environment. The ‘pull’ marketing strategy, whereby we reach out to travellers with our brand attributes and unique propositions to create new customers, should follow thereafter, once some form of proper and consistent normalcy has arrived.

So the priority in the short term is the need for a strong communication programme to reach out to the smaller, specific segments of consumers who would consider traveling in next 12-18 months.

The ‘tourism cake’ has shrunk. And everyone (all tourism destinations) are trying to get a share.

So how does Sri Lanka reach out and get a bigger share of this cake?

4.0 The need for evidence-based decision-making.

SL tourism has never given too much prominence to research and evidence-based decision-making. I guess it is no surprise when the leadership of the whole country depends on soothsayers and astrologers and quack–brewed concoctions to rid the CoVid19 virus, while the sane voices of the professionals are given a deaf ear.

But then again tourism is such an interesting subject that everyone from streetside vendors to desk-based government bureaucrats and inexperienced and clueless ministers, are experts on the subject. Even tourism professionals tend to lean on their old experiences and emotions, rather than, on good research. The need for a private -public sector partnered tourism research unit has been talked about ad nauseam. (I myself have presented many proposals for such an initiative over the past years.)

The crying need of the hour (and of course in the long term as well) is to have good reliable feedback about the tourism market. Would it be difficult to interview the few tourists who are coming to Sri Lanka at the airport? Why did they decide to travel? Why did they choose Sri Lanka? Were they satisfied with their stay?, etc.

Such simple questions will give feedack which will be so useful to tweak our offering and to be more focused on our future promotional efforts. The importance should be on the return on every dollar spent on promotion in these difficult times, and not on the value of the promotion.

5.0 Short Term ‘Push’ Marketing –

Segmentation

In trying to develop such a communication plan, (I use the word plan and not strategy since it is short term oriented) the first focus should be on the tourism consumer. One way to segment the traveller would be based on mind-set.

5.1 The Potential

travellers.

The possible consumer segments in the immediate post-Covid-19 era and their general characteristics could be as follows-

‘Devil may care’ traveller

The impetuous, young, adventurous risk takers. Not concerned about pandemic. Possibly with limited financial resources. (The conventional backpackers would also fall into this category but their monetary standing, post- CoVid-19 may be wanting)

‘Tread carefully’‘ traveller

Earns to travel. Will check all pros and cons on social media and other media channels and make careful decisions about travelling. Possibly young/middle aged, well-educated with adequate disposable income.

‘Wait and See’ traveller

Ultra-safety conscious and anxious about travelling. Possibly middle aged or Senior citizens, families with young children. Adequate financial resources.

It is evident that the segment who would travel under current prevailing circumstances would be predominately the ‘Devil-may-care’ Traveller, and to a lesser degree the ‘Tread carefully’ traveller segment. It will be quite a while before the ‘Wait and see’ traveller ventures out, and therefore there is no point in spending resources in engaging that category.

Hence it is not rocket science to conclude that a short term push marketing initiative must be specifically targeted at these two segments.

5.2 The Generic Consumer segments (Generational profiling)

The usually accepted generic consumer demographic segments are-

Silent Generation -Born 1925-1945; Current Ave. age 80’s- Small size

= Hard working

=Conservative

= Healthy, and most educated

= Wealthiest generation

Baby Boomers – Born 1945-1960; Current Ave. age 70’s-Medium size

= Larger families

= Non traditional

= Physically fit

= Wealthy

= Leisure activities

Generation X –Born 1960-1980; Current Ave. age 50’s-Large size

= Enjoy creative input and resourceful

= Embrace technology and social media

= Strong emphasis on family time and work-life balance

= Hard working

= Financially well off

= Comfortable with technology

Generation Y (Millennials)-Born 1980-1990; Current Ave. age 30’s-Large size

= Diverse

= Impatient

= Creative

= Multi-taskers

= Internet and social media part of their lives

= Reasonably wealthy

Generation Z – Born 1990-present; Current Ave. age< 30’s- Medium size

= Self-reliant

= Risk takers

= Can be suspicious of larger corporations

= Not too brand loyal

= Short span of interest

=Fully ‘wired’ almost always

= Reliant on social media platforms

= Very concerned about environment, ethics and social wellbeing of people

Although this categorisation is predominantly relevant to developed countries, with globalisation and the spread of the internet, it is valid for most emerging countries as well.

The types of traveller identified earlier can now be matched with the generation profile characterises to help target the required segment, with an appropriate and relevant commination initiative.

This indicates that the market segments most likely to travel in the short term are

Gen Z (medium size)

Gen Y (large size)

Gen X –to a lesser extent (Large size)

6.0 Short Term ‘Push’ Marketing- The Communication

So how do you reach out to the Generation Z’s and Y’s ?

The answer is to study their inherent characteristics, and respond accordingly to what motivates them.

 The platform must necessary be digital.

 The medium must be internet based. Social media, blogs, etc. (Brochures, print media and trade fairs will not work. Even Facebook is outdated)

 The message should be based around-

= Health and Safety. ( this will be of paramount importance to all segments)

= Short and sweet, to the point

= Authentic and reliable

= Personalised, small scale programs

= Meaningful stories

= More pictures & Videos

= Highlight social and community benefits

= Ethical travel themes

= Travel for a cause

= Environment, outdoor,

= Nature and wildlife

= Off the beaten track

= Wellness and meditation/yoga

Hence once an analytical approach is taken to identify key market segments based on demographics it will be easier to target the desired travellers with a cost effective communications programme.

6.0 Conclusion

In the foregoing I have attempted to show how an analytical approach based on good consumer data, could be, designed and implemented. This is by no means a perfect model, and is presented only as an example. Professional markers will be able to design more comprehensive initiatives. The important fact is that needs to be highlighted is that we must break out of our shackles of being the ‘know-it-all s’ and reach out to good research and information to base our plans on.

Otherwise, Sri Lanka Tourism will continue to blunder around with its’ sawn off double-barrelled shot gun, spraying bullets all over, hitting only a rare target or two’.



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Opinion

Open letter to PUCSL on proposed electricity tariff revision

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Although the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) has appropriately invited public consultation on the proposed electricity tariff revision from 27 February to 18 March, the online submission portal appears to contain a non-functioning submission tab. If this technical issue persists, it risks undermining the integrity and effectiveness of the entire consultation process. Consequently, I have chosen to present this letter openly for public consideration, including by the PUCSL.

Current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East underscore the urgent need for Sri Lanka to minimise its dependence on imported fossil fuels and prioritise the development of domestic renewable energy resources, including solar, hydro, and wind power. Such a transition is essential to securing a stable and independent energy supply. Regrettably, the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) appears to be moving in the opposite direction.

Promoting solar-powered electric vehicles supported by home-based renewable charging systems would strengthen national energy security and reduce pressure on imported fuel supplies. The fuel queues witnessed during periods of crisis, most notably in 2022, serve as a stark reminder of the risks associated with excessive dependence on external energy sources and the national anarchy that can follow.

As a small nation operating within a volatile global economy, Sri Lanka must remain as non-aligned and self-reliant as possible. Strengthening self-sufficiency in strategic sectors is critical to avoiding collateral damage amid escalating geopolitical rivalries among major powers. India has made steady progress along this path; Sri Lanka would be well-advised to do the same.

Raising electricity tariffs — a measure repeatedly adopted over the past decades to offset the high cost of fossil-fuel-based power generation — places an unfair burden on debt-ridden households and struggling businesses. Resorting once again to tariff increases, rather than addressing structural inefficiencies and fuel dependency, reflects a failure of long-term planning. The nation must instead pursue sustainable energy solutions that reduce costs over time.

As a debt-burdened country, Sri Lanka urgently requires pragmatic, forward-looking strategies that ease the pressure on citizens while strengthening resilience in times of geopolitical instability. Energy pricing is not a peripheral issue; it is a central pillar of economic stability and national security, demanding serious and immediate attention.

Established on 1 November 1969, the CEB was entrusted with the responsibility of generating and distributing electricity across the island while promoting social and economic development through the optimal use of national resources.

Recent developments suggest that the Ceylon Electricity Board has fallen short of these foundational objectives. Over the past two decades, electricity tariffs have been increased repeatedly under various justifications yet supply reliability has not consistently improved. The current proposed revision appears to perpetuate the same pattern: continued dependence on imported fossil fuels, directly contradicting the principle of optimally utilising national resources. This trajectory risks returning the country to recurring crises, including the prolonged fuel shortages and power cuts experienced in recent years.

Energy is not an ordinary commodity confined to a single sector; it affects every dimension of national life. High energy costs increase the cost of living by inflating expenses related to food production, transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods. Ultimately, these costs are borne by citizens.

Moreover, elevated energy prices undermine national competitiveness by discouraging foreign investment and constraining local entrepreneurship, technological advancement, industrial expansion, and job creation. High-cost energy impedes national development.

Low-cost energy should therefore be formally adopted as a national policy objective. The CEB must adhere to its original mandate of optimising national resources for cost-effective electricity generation. Any deviation from this principle must be fully transparent and supported by clear, evidence-based justification.

Even in the sphere of renewable energy, concerns arise about the apparent preference for large-scale solar and battery storage projects that require substantial public funding. Previous claims of “grid instability” attributed to household rooftop solar generation were used to justify policy shifts. If electricity generated by rooftop solar during daylight hours was considered problematic, how would significantly larger solar installations differ in principle? Without systematic and transparent grid modernisation, such projects risk becoming costly stopgap measures rather than sustainable long-term solutions.

Poorly planned initiatives could once again expose the country to high delivery costs, reflected in elevated tariffs. They may also increase the risk of power disruptions due to battery limitations, spare-part shortages, infrastructure weaknesses, or maintenance failures. Sri Lanka has previously endured six- to ten-hour power outages, with severe economic and social consequences. The nation cannot afford a return to such instability.

It must also be recognised that rooftop solar installations, financed by homeowners — often through personal loans — have provided a crucial safety net for many families. By purchasing surplus energy from these “prosumers,” the system has functioned in a mutually beneficial manner for both households and the nation. Rather than discouraging decentralised generation, Sri Lanka should modernise its grid and meaningfully integrate citizen-led energy production. Short- and medium-term grid improvements could be facilitated through structured private-sector participation, including by prosumers themselves.

Globally, affordable energy underpins economic growth. Countries such as China, the United States, Norway, Brazil, and Canada have leveraged domestic energy resources to produce cost-effective power and accelerate development.

Sri Lanka must adopt a clear national policy centred on low-cost energy, fully utilising its natural endowments — solar, hydro, wind, and emerging technologies. Proposals prioritising imported fuels should be considered secondary and strictly transitional.

A nation that endures long queues for essential energy supplies cannot reasonably expect its citizens and businesses to remain productive and resilient. These realities are fundamentally incompatible.

Encouraging decentralised energy production would:

* Reduce the cost of living

* Improve national resilience

* Attract foreign investment

* Create employment

* Enhance export competitiveness

The people have entrusted the government with this responsibility. The time has come for a decisive, transparent, and forward-looking policy shift.

Chula Goonasekera

(cgoonase@sltnet.lk)

A concerned citizen

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Opinion

Need for well-designed contracts and their implementation

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The purchase of substandard coal using a faulty tendering process has become news lately. This enormous financial loss to the country indicates the urgent need for the Government to pass stronger contract laws and have their proper implementation in Sri Lanka by professionals. It is recommended that “Model” contracts need to be drawn up as typical examples and these made available to governmental departments who may need to enter into similar contracts. Do not ask a busy manager to design a contract, a legal document from scratch! Perhaps a whole department should be set up to monitor (police?) government and local government administration of contracts under English Contract Law and contracts under the United Nations Convention for International Sale of Goods (CISG). Perhaps now, it seems that anyone in government can draw up a contract and design it to suit his own whims and fancies!

I suggest here models of typical contracts, useable for different cases are made available for anyone or any department required to enter into a contract to enable them, or at least assist them to first formulate, and draw up an effective contract which must have certain important clauses. Contract administrators and supervisors need to be well trained, motivated and independent in order to administer Government contracts as the law of Sri Lanka should demand.

Contract Management

In the West, mutually agreed contracts are considered legal agreements enforceable by law under a given jurisdiction. There is the initiator of the contract named the Owner and a Main Contractor who agrees to implement the work for a price consideration, and who may delegate part, or all of the work to sub-contractors.

Contracts must provide all the information required by a contractor to complete the work. Contract clauses must incorporate all foreseeable eventualities. For example, the acceptance, as agreed and signed between the contacting parties by the supplier or lead contractor, needs to have clauses that allow for design changes (change orders), additional time and the formulation of related costs and profit accordingly. Such ‘in progress’ changes have procedures which are given in clauses dealing with ‘change orders’ which require assessing the cost of the change order implementation. Change order management may best be done by a firm of Quantity Surveyors.

The main contractor agrees with the owner to supply labour, materials and specialist equipment to fulfil the terms of the agreement or contract for a price. Special tax concessions, customs clearances and other legal requirements can fall on the shoulders of the Owner, or as negotiated from the outset. All these matters need to be clarified from the outset of any contract.

Time is of the essence. The time value of money is always at the forefront of the contract manager’s mind. The work is usually expected to be carried out to a time frame set by the owner. Therefore, the implementation of an agreement should be set in an agreed time frame with easily defined milestones marking progress and marking when appropriate payments become due.

Of course, contract administrators must make payments only when the work is verified as satisfactorily completed at each of previously agreed stages of the contract. Usually, there are time limitations, with penalties for time overruns. Owners want their goods delivered on time and to meet all contractual specifications on quality and performance. There should be clauses stipulating quality and quantity guarantees and guarantees of remedial repairs, continuing service agreements to be settled before an official handover and signing on completion of a contract. Final payment should be withheld until the guarantee period has expired. Preparing for these events needs computers, foresight and experience.

Small contracts are usually managed by the owner, but large, multimillion dollar contracts may be administered by an independent organisation. A contract is enforceable by law, with stated financial penalties for failures to abide by the terms of the contract, but all is subject to “Force Majeure.” This is when progress of the work is seriously impeded or impossible due to events totally outside the control of the Subcontractor.

Contract implementation is a large area, well catered for by laws in the English language. This letter can only raise questions about the quality of contract administration in Sri Lanka. Unfortunately, so few legislators have sufficient knowledge of English, resulting in loopholes allowing manipulation which may result in Sri Lankan public having to pay through the nose, pay dearly for incompetent practice.

I can suggest these improvements, but my actual experience is that all my letters, in English, to officialdom go unanswered and ignored.

Roger. O. Smith

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Opinion

Sri Lanka Cricket needs a bitter pill

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A systemic diagnosis of a fading legacy

The outcome of the 2026 T20 World Cup, coupled with the trajectory of the sport in recent years, provides harrowing evidence that Sri Lankan cricket is suffering from a terminal malignancy.The Doomsday clock for Sri Lankan cricket has not just started ticking—it has reached its final hour.

Therefore this note is written to call the attention of the cricketing elite who love the sport.

The current state of affairs suggests a pathology so deep-seated that conventional remedies—be it revolving-door coaching changes or fleeting, opportunistic victories—can no longer arrest its spread.

What we are witnessing is not a mere slump in form or a temporary lapse in rhythm; it is a profound systemic collapse that threatens the very foundation of our national pastime.

The Illusion of Recovery: The “Sanath Factor” as Palliative Care:

Since late 2024, the appointment of Sanath Jayasuriya as Head Coach injected a much-needed surge of adrenaline into the national side.

Statistically, the highlights were historic: a first ODI series win against India in 27 years, a Test victory at The Oval after a decade, and a clinical 2-0 whitewash of New Zealand.

However, a data-driven autopsy reveals that these will be “palliative” successes rather than a cure.

Under Jayasuriya’s tenure, the team maintained a win rate of approximately 50 percent (29 wins in 60 matches).

While analysts optimistically labeled this a “transitional phase,” the recent T20 series against England and Pakistan exposed the raw truth: in high-pressure “crunch” moments, the team’s performance metrics—specifically Strike Rate (SR) and Fielding Efficiency—regress to amateur levels.

We are not transitioning; we are stagnating in a professional abyss.

The Scientific Gap:

Why India and Australia Lead

The disparity between Sri Lanka and global giants such as the BCCI and Cricket Australia (CA) is now rooted in High-Performance Science and Algorithmic Management.

Predictive Analytics & Biometrics

In Australia, fast bowlers utilise wearable sensors to monitor workload and biomechanical stress.

AI models analyse this data to predict stress fractures before they occur.

Sri Lanka, conversely, continues to cycle through injured pacemen with no predictive oversight.

Virtual Reality (VR) Training

While Australian batters use VR to simulate the trajectories of elite global bowlers, Sri Lankan players remain tethered to traditional net sessions on deteriorating domestic tracks.

Data-Driven Talent Identification:

India’s “transmission system” utilises automated data analysis across thousands of domestic matches to identify players who thrive under specific pressure indices.

In Sri Lanka, 85 percent of national talent still originates from just four districts—a statistical failure in talent scouting and geographic expansion.

Infrastructure vs. Intellect:

A Misallocation of Capital

Sri Lanka Cricket (SLC) boasts massive reserves, yet its investment strategy is fundamentally flawed.

Capital is funneled into “bricks and mortar”—grand stadiums and administrative buildings—rather than the human capital of the sport.

We build colosseums but fail to train the gladiators.

The domestic structure remains a “spin trap.”

By producing “rank turners” to suit club politics, we have effectively de-skilled our batters against elite pace and rendered our spinners ineffective on the flat, true wickets required for international success.

The Leadership Deficit:

A Failure of Succession Planning

The crisis of leadership post-Sangakkara and Mahela is a byproduct of poor “Succession Science.”

Australia maintains a “Culture of Continuity,” backing leadership even through lean periods to ensure stability.

India employs a rigid “Succession Roadmap,” ensuring the next generation is integrated into the system long before the veterans depart.

In contrast, SLC operates on a “carousel of convenience,” changing captains and coaches to distract from administrative failures.

This lack of imaginative management stems from a low literacy in modern Sports Governance.

From a philosophical perspective, our established cricketing traditions have failed to absorb the antithesis of the modern, hyper-professionalized global game.

As a result, a truly modern Sri Lankan brand of cricket has failed to materialise.

Instead, we are trapped in what is called a “Static Synthesis,” where the administration clings to the glories of 1996 and 2014 as a shield against the necessity of change.

This is not a transition; it is a refusal to evolve

We are witnessing the alienation of the sport from its people, where the “Master” (the administration) has become detached from the “Slave” (the grassroots talent and the fans).

The Verdict:

A National Emergency

The “cancer” in Sri Lankan cricket is a trifecta of political interference, irrational management, and a refusal to embrace the Fourth Industrial Revolution (AI, VR, and Big Data).

As someone who contributed to the formation of the Sri Lankan Professional Cricketers’ Association, I see the current trajectory as a betrayal of the players’ potential and the nation’s heritage.

Sri Lanka Cricket does not need another “review committee” or a new coach to act as a human shield for the board.

It needs a “Bitter Pill”—an aggressive, independent restructuring that prioritises scientific professionalisation over cronyism.

Without this, our cricket will remain at the bottom of the well, looking up at a world that has moved light-years ahead.

Shiral Lakthilaka

LLB, LLM/MA
Attorney-at-Law
Former Advisor to H.E. the President of Sri Lanka
Former Member of the Western Provincial Council
Executive Committee member of the Asian Social Democratic Political Parities

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