Opinion

Problems in Geneva: Facts that brought us here

Published

5 years ago

2021/02/26

Dr. SARATH GAMINI De SILVA

The annual patriotic taunts and the laments of the majority are heard as the day of reckoning approaches in Geneva. We are shouting ourselves hoarse, complaining that the whole world is ganging up against the brave Sri Lankans, to punish them for eliminating the most brutal terrorist outfit the world has ever seen. It is true that what was achieved in 2009 is something that no other country could do in eliminating terrorism. But does that guarantee peace when the basic grievances that led to civil unrest over the years have not been addressed?

This article is not an attempt to justify violence, untruth or deplorable and unprincipled activities of other countries. Nor is it to devalue the achievements up to 2009. The intention is to open the eyes of my own countrymen to the reality of the hopeless situation facing the nation.

As was mentioned in earlier articles, seeds for racial disharmony were laid during the British colonial period. With their divide-and-rule method, they pitted the majority community against the minorities. This was done by establishing proportionately more schools in the North to ensure a better education, and thereby giving them superior positions in government service. Thus, with the country gaining Independence in 1948, and the Sinhalese gaining the upper hand, the minorities, mainly Northern Tamils, felt disadvantaged. They tried negotiations with the Southern politicians. Naturally, their demands like Ponnambalam’s 50-50 were unjust, but we could have negotiated that. With the watershed political upheaval in 1956, the situation became very volatile. With the Sinhala chauvinists becoming very influential and vociferous, taking politicians virtual hostage to achieve their aims, the minorities were getting increasingly marginalised. The Bandaranaike- Chelvanayakam Pact and later the Dudley-Chelvanayakam Pact were not honoured, without working on them to solve the ongoing disputes. There were several episodes of violence against unarmed members of the minorities during that period.

With the overwhelming electoral victory of the UNP in 1977 (followed immediately by another bout of violence), the majority assumed that whatever grievances of the minorities could be stepped over. Eventually, the Tamils were expelled from Parliament blaming their non-allegiance to the Constitution, leaving them with no forum to air their grievances. The terrorist outfits were taking shape in the North, claiming to be the sole representatives of the oppressed. The Southern leaders ignored the political sensitivities of India, which strengthened the terrorists calling them “Freedom Fighters”.

The pogrom of 1983 is the darkest patch in the recent history of our paradise. The unarmed Tamils in Colombo were killed, even burnt alive and their property looted. With the government not making any efforts to curtail the violence for several days, there was a worrying suspicion of state patronage. Many Tamils, who worried about their lives, escaped to Western countries. Naturally, they were warmly welcomed as refugees in those countries as their embassies here were witnesses to what happened in Colombo and elsewhere. From then on, the Eelam war escalated, and it is not necessary to detail here the damage done in both human and material terms over thirty years. Many subsequent peace overtures of the government were rejected by the terrorists, who were determined to establish their own Elam.

After eliminating terrorism in 2009, what actions have we taken to restore lasting peace? Have we had at least belatedly, an ongoing dialogue sans political rhetoric with the Tamil leaders to see what their grievances are and taken steps to address them? Instead, our politicians kept on boasting of their “victory”, further arousing separatist tendencies with communal rhetoric, purely to ensure that their success in winning the battles will keep them in power for generations. They were fighting with each other claiming credit for what was achieved.

The Tamil refugees who settled down in Western countries were establishing themselves. Well educated and employed, they are working according to a plan. With their natural energy, determination and ambition, characteristics we used to admire in our Northern countrymen for ages, they are flourishing making the best use of the opportunities provided there. The diaspora is making use of their increasing numbers to influence the local politicians, who are interested in winning their votes, to speak up for them at influential fora. They themselves have taken to politics and entered legislatures.

One can imagine the grudge they must be harbouring against us. They will tell the generations to come about barbaric violence they suffered. That generation, about everyone under 40 years of age at present, will not be informed of terrorism, suicide bombers, child soldiers, killing of innocent villagers, massacre of Samanera monks or bombing of Buddhist holy sites. They will be taught only about the 1983 pogrom and unsubstantiated allegations of civilian killings and the elimination of their “freedom fighters” in 2009. In fact, there is a campaign in Toronto schools to have a week declared every year to commemorate the so called “Tamil Genocide”. This and subsequent generations in the diaspora will be increasingly hostile to us. Though the LTTE remains proscribed in many countries, they have managed to operate freely with political patronage.

There is no use in shouting ourselves hoarse about the unforgivable crimes committed by the rebels during the war years if future security and peace is the concern of Sri Lankans. We will be facing this formidable force of the diaspora at every international forum in the future. Our diplomats, who are mostly the kinsmen or other acolytes of those in power and grossly unqualified to represent the country, have failed miserably to give the correct picture to those that matter. The whole world is well aware of the atrocities committed by the Tigers. Yet, successive governments have failed to exploit that knowledge to turn the world opinion favourable to us.

Despite all this, many educated members of the diaspora still love this country. Many of my colleagues there are still dreaming of the day they might be able to return after retirement. They keep visiting us regularly, having bought property here. Some have put up hospitals, churches and indulge in other public service ventures to help especially those in the North. So many doctors having achieved high positions in the health services overseas, help the country train our postgraduate doctors.

Sri Lankan politicians are still fighting among themselves without any concrete plans to counteract the allegations being made. Enough ammunition is being provided to the United Nations Human Rights Commission, UNHCR, to work against the country. After agreeing to various conditions imposed over the years, but dishonouring them immediately afterwards, the country has become one of the most untrustworthy to deal with. Those in power keep blaming the previous governments for the international agreements reached, without working for a common stance to face the imminent threat. Guarantees are being given repeatedly to the international community about an impartial judiciary to deal with various allegations emanating from the ethnic war. At the same time, new legislation is enacted to ensure that the opponents of the government are punished by a judiciary handpicked by the rulers. While saying that minority rights are being respected, the Muslims are denied their fundamental right to bury their dead.

It is meaningless to claim that other countries should not interfere with the internal affairs of Sri Lanka, which is a sovereign state. Having signed many international conventions and agreements, we cannot seek self-isolation when the situation suits us. We have allowed our internal matters to be discussed at international fora by failing miserably to solve them ourselves, often due to political expediency. This has forced our own citizens to seek relief from international organisations. If not for the influence and intervention of external sources, by now many countries in the world would have become ruthless dictatorships torturing their own citizens.

If the gravity of the issue was realised, a permanent secretariat should have been established in the foreign ministry long ago, with experienced diplomats purely to conduct an international campaign against the misinformation, and give the correct picture to foreign countries and various organisations that matter.

Our politicians know that they can fool most Sri Lankan voters all the time. But if they believe they can continue to fool the international community in the same way, they are sadly mistaken. Unfortunately, the whole nation will suffer paying for their folly.

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Opinion

Could Sri Lanka once again face an economic crisis similar to 2022?

Published

19 hours ago

2026/06/9

Sahan Weerasooriya

This article examines whether Sri Lanka faces the risk of once again moving towards a situation similar to the 2022 economic crisis. The 2022 crisis was not the result of a single cause, but a multidimensional crisis created by the combined effects of fiscal weaknesses, foreign exchange shortages, debt burdens, policy mistakes, and the weakening of the productive economy. Although foreign exchange reserves, the exchange rate, and the fiscal position have now stabilized to some extent, that stability remains fragile.

The continuity of the IMF programme, debt sustainability, investor confidence, and policy discipline are decisive factors in this regard. At the same time, poverty, the quality of employment, pressures on the SME sector, price levels, and income inequalities remain serious socio-economic challenges. Therefore, while it may not be accurate to say that the 2022 crisis will immediately recur, abandoning the reform path and failing to correct structural weaknesses could once again push Sri Lanka towards a crisis-prone path.

Recently, the Chief Executive Officer of the Advocata Institute issued an important warning regarding Sri Lanka’s economic future. That statement also received wide attention across various media platforms. His central argument was that if Sri Lanka moves away from the current path of economic reforms, there is a risk that a situation similar to the severe economic crisis experienced in 2022 could re-emerge.

This statement cannot be dismissed merely as a political or ideological remark. It is an important warning that deserves deeper consideration in relation to the country’s economic stability, policy continuity, and the future of the reform process. Therefore, the purpose of this note is to examine the strength and validity of that statement through selected macroeconomic indicators and structural economic factors.

A particularly important point to remember is that the 2022 economic crisis was not caused by a single factor or a single policy mistake. It was a complex economic crisis created by the accumulation of fiscal imbalances, excessive debt, foreign exchange shortages, weak export and investment growth, the decline of the productive economy, policy uncertainty, and weak institutional governance over many years.

Therefore, in assessing whether Sri Lanka could once again move towards such a situation, it is not sufficient to rely on a single indicator or a short-term trend. Instead, it is essential to consider a broad macroeconomic range, including the fiscal position, foreign exchange reserves, debt sustainability, investment and export performance, unemployment, poverty levels, the condition of small and medium-sized enterprises, price levels, interest rates, and the overall path of economic growth.

Our main question should not be whether the 2022 crisis will return tomorrow. The more important question is whether the fundamental structural weaknesses that caused that crisis have truly been corrected, or whether they have only been temporarily managed. Sri Lanka’s economic future will be determined by the answer to this question.

1. Foreign Exchange Reserves

By early 2022, Sri Lanka’s usable foreign exchange reserves had fallen to extremely low levels, making even payments for fuel, medicine, and other essential imports a serious challenge.

At present, foreign exchange reserves have recovered significantly, providing a stronger protective buffer compared with the situation in 2022. However, this stability could once again be weakened by a breakdown in the continuity of the IMF programme, a slowdown in foreign direct investment flows, a decline in tourism earnings or remittances, or disruptions to the debt restructuring process.

2. Exchange Rate Stability

In 2022, the rapid depreciation of the rupee was a major factor that increased import prices, production costs, and the cost of living.

Today, the exchange rate shows relative stability, but that stability depends on foreign exchange inflows, market confidence, and policy credibility. Therefore, if the IMF programme is disrupted, foreign exchange earnings decline, or investor confidence weakens, the rupee could once again come under severe pressure.

3. Fiscal Position

Among the root causes of the 2022 crisis were the collapse of government revenue, dependence on excessive borrowing, and the long-term weakening of fiscal discipline.

Under the IMF programme, the fiscal position has been strengthened to some extent through increased tax revenue and expenditure control. However, reversing tax reforms for political popularity, failing to reform loss-making state-owned enterprises, or losing control over public expenditure could once again widen fiscal imbalances.

4. Debt Sustainability

In 2022, Sri Lanka was forced to suspend external debt servicing for the first time in its history.

Although the debt restructuring process has now made considerable progress, debt sustainability depends on continuous economic growth, maintaining a primary budget surplus, and policy discipline. If these conditions weaken, concerns over debt stability could re-emerge.

5. Employment Conditions

Although the official unemployment rate appears to be under some control, problems relating to the quality of the labour market remain unresolved.

Many people have moved into low-income informal employment, while the shortage of employment opportunities among educated youth remains significant. In addition, the migration of skilled and educated workers has placed pressure on the country’s human capital and long-term productive capacity.

6. Poverty and Living Standards

With the 2022 crisis, poverty increased significantly. Although inflation has declined, the cost of living still remains a heavy burden for many families.

A large number of households continue to struggle to meet expenses related to food, transport, education, and health. Therefore, it is still difficult to say that the benefits of macroeconomic stability have adequately reached lower- and middle-income groups.

7. Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

SMEs, which are a central source of employment and income generation in Sri Lanka, were severely affected by the crisis.

High interest rates, energy costs, raw material prices, and weak consumer demand forced many enterprises to close down, downsize, or become burdened with debt. The pace of economic recovery will depend heavily on the revival of this sector.

8. Weakness of the Productive Economy

A deeper structural cause of the 2022 crisis was the limited base of Sri Lanka’s productive economy.

Even today, the country remains heavily dependent on tourism earnings, remittances, and the services sector. High value-added industries, technology exports, knowledge-based services, and innovation-driven sectors have not grown at the expected pace. Without a structural transformation of the economy, long-term stability cannot be guaranteed.

9. Income and Distributional Inequalities

Although some economic groups recovered quickly after the crisis, a large section of the population has still not escaped economic pressure.

The gap between urban and rural areas, as well as between high- and low-income groups, appears to have widened. If the benefits of economic growth are not distributed more broadly, macroeconomic stability will not translate into social and political stability.

10. Price Levels and Inflation

Inflation has declined, but people are still facing price levels that have already risen and become entrenched.

A decline in inflation does not mean a decline in prices. If income growth does not keep pace with price levels, the real purchasing power and living standards of households will remain weak.

11. Interest Rates and Investment

Although interest rates have declined, private investment and new business activity have not yet grown at the expected pace.

Investment decisions are influenced not only by interest rates, but also by policy stability, legal clarity, the protection of property rights, market expectations, and investor confidence. Therefore, sustained investment growth requires broader institutional and policy stability.

12. What Could Happen If IMF Conditions Are Not Implemented?

The IMF programme is not merely a loan facility. It is a key foundation of the confidence that the international financial community places in Sri Lanka’s economic policies.

programme breaks down:

* IMF disbursements could be suspended.

* Support from development partners, including the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, could weaken.

* Confidence among creditors and international markets could deteriorate.

* Foreign direct investment could slow down.

* Pressure on the rupee could increase.

* Interest rates could rise.

* Inflation could accelerate again.

* Fiscal crises could re-emerge.

* Economic growth could slow down.

* Jobs, incomes, and living standards could be adversely affected.

This does not mean that Sri Lanka would return to the 2022 situation overnight. However, it could gradually weaken the protective buffers required for economic stability and significantly increase the risk of the country being drawn back into a crisis-prone path.

by Prof. Ranjith Bandara, PhD (Qld.,)

Opinion

Beware of Yanks bearing gifts

Published

2 days ago

2026/06/8

Thilina Walpola

Helicopters from the US. (Pic courtesy SLAF)

The US Government has gifted 10 Bell 206, Sea Ranger Helicopters to the SLAF for Training and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) purposes. The full specifications are as follows.

Contractor:

Bell Helicopter Textron
Date Deployed: First flight: 1961; Operational: 1968
Propulsion: One Allison 250-C20BJ turbofan engine
Length: Fuselage – 31 feet (9.44 meters); Rotors turning – 39 feet (11.9 meters)
Height: 10 feet (3.04 meters)
Rotor Diameter: 35 feet 4 inches (10.78 meters)
Weight: 1595 pounds (725kg) empty, 3200 pounds (1455 kg) maximum take-off
Airspeed: 138 miles (222 km) per hour maximum; 117 miles (188 km) per hour cruising
Ceiling: 18,900 feet (5,761 meters)
Range: 368 nautical miles (420 statute miles, 676 km)
Crew: One pilot, four students

While they are good for training, I have my serious doubts whether these helicopters are ideal for HADR. As they have only a single engine and They can’t even operate into high rise helipads in hospitals and hotels in Colombo. The law requires twin engine helicopters! What happens if there is an engine failure while operating over the sea or in a mountainous area? There will be hell to pay!

Three twin engine versions would have been better.

How many helicopter pilots does the SLAF require anyway?

Will we be stuck with junk? Like two Russian KA -26’s during the Sirimavo Government and French Aerospatiale Dauphins SLAF acquired. which were not ‘tropicalised’, during the JRJ Government.

Will the Sea Ranger Spares support be available, free of charge?

I doubt it.

There will also be other Geopolitical strings attached. There is no such thing as a free lunch.

Guwan Seeya

Opinion

Will AI kill solar and wind energy?

Published

2 days ago

2026/06/8

Thilina Walpola

Global warming policies were expected to drive a rapid shift toward a renewables-based energy system dominated by wind and solar. While growth in these sources did occur, it has not matched the pace that was widely anticipated. In the United States, the rise of cheap and abundant shale natural gas significantly reshaped the energy mix, displacing coal and limiting the relative share of wind and solar in electricity generation. In China and India, the situation has been different.

Coal remains dominant because it is widely available domestically, while natural gas is more limited or expensive to secure at scale. As a result, coal has retained its central role in both countries’ power systems. Solar and wind always provide intermittent, variable power. It was widely assumed that a cost-effective, utility-scale electricity storage solution would emerge to solve this problem, but that has not yet happened at the scale originally expected. In the pre-AI era, solar and wind were typically integrated into power systems alongside more reliable sources such as coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy.

For example, if the sun was shining on a Monday, electricity demand could be met largely by solar power during the day. At night, coal, natural gas, or nuclear plants would supply the required electricity. If the following Tuesday was cloudy or gloomy, generation would shift back toward coal, gas, or nuclear to maintain supply. AI introduces a new and more demanding challenge. AI data centers require continuous, high-quality, always-on electricity, which solar and wind alone struggle to guarantee without large-scale storage or back-up systems. In addition, they require very large amounts of power.

As a result, the AI industry is now actively searching for new and expanded sources of reliable electricity. One of the major challenges in powering AI systems is electricity transmission. High-voltage transmission lines are expensive, slow to build, and often face regulatory and land-use constraints. As a result, some companies are exploring more localized power solutions, sometimes referred to as microgrids. These are self-contained energy systems that can operate independently from the main electricity grid. Technologies such as small modular nuclear reactors are an example of such microgrids.

In such isolated systems, the focus is on highly reliable, always available power generated close to the point of use. In this context, solar and wind are expected to play a limited role because their output is variable and depends on weather conditions, making them less suited as primary sources in fully self-contained AI-focused microgrids. The pace of AI infrastructure development is extremely rapid in both the United States and China. AI systems are widely seen as transformative technologies that promise significant new wealth creation, which is driving aggressive and sustained investment. As a result, development is moving quickly, without waiting for long-term solutions such as large-scale energy storage to mature alongside renewable energy systems.

In this environment, electricity demand is rising faster than new infrastructure can be built. In the United States, this reinforces the role of natural gas as the dominant source of reliable power. In China and India, where coal remains more established and readily available, it is likely to continue playing a central role in meeting growing demand. In India, AI data centers have not yet been built at the scale seen in the United States and China. When India does reach that stage, it will need to supply large amounts of reliable electricity. India has placed strong emphasis on solar energy in particular and has had some success in meeting the needs of ordinary consumers through renewable expansion. However, the key question is what choices will be made when large-scale AI data centers begin to arrive.

Will India rely more on coal generation, which is relatively cheap, widely available, and highly reliable, or on solar power, which is intermittent, variable, and often more expensive when reliability is taken into account? My view is that India is more likely to turn to coal to meet this demand, given its existing infrastructure and the need for dependable electricity supply. Then there is an overall question. Solar and wind were already struggling in the pre-AI days to displace coal and natural gas at the system level, despite strong expectations that they would become dominant sources of electricity. Now that AI is here and electricity demand is rising rapidly, will they push solar and wind further behind in the energy mix? (The Statesman)

(The writer is an expert on energy and contributes regularly to publications in India and overseas.)

by SUNIL SHARAN