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Overcoming Obstacles: The Economic Case for a Sri Lanka-Thailand FTA

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By Asanka Wijesinghe and Nilupulee Rathnayake

In 2019, only 6 % of tea imported by Thailand was from Sri Lanka. This low percentage can be attributed to the difference in preferences and Thailand’s high tariffs of 90 % on imported tea, which act as barriers to Sri Lanka’s tea exports. Additionally, Thailand imposes up to 30 % tariffs on nearly 120 product lines of wearing apparel.

These high tariffs for products with a comparative advantage are not exclusive to Sri Lanka. Thailand also faces higher tariffs for vehicles, rubber, and light-electronics exports which Thailand exports competitively. This tariff structure hampers the bilateral trade of products with a higher comparative advantage for both countries.

Despite these challenges, Sri Lanka and Thailand have expedited the process of signing a free trade agreement (FTA) to boost bilateral trade by threefold to USD 1.5 billion. This article discusses the trade effect of an FTA and a way forward to maximise the gains from an FTA.

Existing Trade is Skewed towards Thailand

In the pre-pandemic period, Sri Lanka-Thailand bilateral trade was nearly USD 500 million. The three-year-2017, 2018 and 2019- average exports from Sri Lanka to Thailand were USD 62.9 million, while the exports from Thailand to Sri Lanka were USD 416.8 million. In 2019, Thailand was the 9th largest import source for Sri Lanka, but Sri Lanka is only the 73rd largest import source for Thailand. The mismatch resulted in a bilateral trade deficit of USD 353.9 million.

The existing exports from Sri Lanka to Thailand do not represent Sri Lanka’s typical export basket. The contribution of traditional exports like ready-made garments, tea, rubber, and coconuts is relatively low, and gems, electrical equipment, wheat flour, and activated carbon contribute to a greater extent. Technically specified natural rubber and latex are the top exports from Thailand which are essential raw materials in the value-added rubber industry of Sri Lanka.

Effect of Lowering Tariffs on Bilateral Trade to Zero

As estimated from partial equilibrium analysis, Sri Lanka will realise a 38 % increase in exports to Thailand if tariffs are reduced to zero (Figure 2). The wearing apparel sector would be the biggest beneficiary, with exports projected to increase by 251 % from USD 6.4 million to USD 22.5 million. Figure 3A provides the top ten exports by Sri Lanka benefitting from a tariff removal by Thailand. The export effect for Thailand will be 27.8 % and Thailand’s rubber and plastic products will be increased by 71.9 % or USD 35.4 million. Products such as smoked sheets of rubber and natural latexwould benefit the most from tariff elimination, as shown in Figure 3B.

Assuming an immediate phasing-out of the existing tariffs, an FTA would increase bilateral trade to USD 619.6 million by 29.1 %. This increase falls short of the ambitious goal of a threefold increase in bilateral trade, at least in the short run.

However, partial equilibrium analysis does not estimate the trade gains from new product innovations due to FDI movements. The estimates also do not account for trade effects through input-output linkages and magnification of tariff effects along the value chains. However, tariff phasing out takes time, and FTA coverages are less than 100 %.

An offensive list contains products for which a country has a comparative advantage, capacity for expansion, and a favourable tariff from the importing country. There are 154 such products for Sri Lanka. Notably, 81 % of the USD 27.6 million export gain from an FTA comes from these 154 product lines. Similarly, 69 % of Thailand’s export gains to Sri Lanka in an FTA comes from 147 products identified for the offensive list.

Once ordered by the estimated export gains, nine out of the top ten products of Sri Lanka’s offensive list are from the wearing apparel sector. For Thailand, vital offensive products are rubber, electric equipment like air-conditioners and refrigerators, and motor vehicles for goods transportation.

Challenges and the Way Forward:

Applying tariff cuts for all the products in the offensive lists is a challenge. Thailand’s high tariffs for tea and ready-made exports indicate its protectionist intent. Likewise, Sri Lanka might prefer to keep tariffs on rubber products. Significant political manoeuvring and delicate negotiations will be required to bring the coverage of the FTA to a satisfactory level. Secondly, an FTA will widen Sri Lanka’s trade deficit with Thailand by 26 % (Figure 4). Although a trade deficit is not necessarily detrimental, it does present a short-term challenge due to increased dollar outflow.

A possible solution is tariff elimination for the products in bilateral value chains. Sri Lanka uses Thailand’s rubber and textile products to produce finished goods. If Thailand removes tariffs for these finished products, increased exports will demand more raw materials. Sri Lanka can reciprocate by eliminating tariffs on raw materials. Phasing-in of the FTA, accounting for required adjustments, will also increase the political feasibility.

Strengthening bilateral trade ties with Thailand offers additional benefits to Sri Lanka. An FTA provides an opportunity to join electric equipment manufacturing value chains and a gateway to ASEAN economies. Thus, Sri Lanka should negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement with investment promotion, trade facilitation, and competition laws. Thailand can leverage Sri Lanka’s position as a distributional hub for regional exports.

Link to Talking Economics blog:

https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2023/05/11/overcoming-obstacles-the-economic-case-for-a-sri-lanka-thailand-fta/ 



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The World of the Black Leopard

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Sri Lankan explorer, photographer, and author Senaka Kotagama unveils his debut book, The World of the Black Leopard, at its highly anticipated launch in Colombo. This self-published masterpiece, born from over five decades of global exploration—from Sri Lanka’s misty tea highlands to Kenya’s rugged Laikipia plateau—chronicles Senaka’s groundbreaking discovery of Giza (Black Beauty in Swahili), a rare melanistic leopard. In 2023, Senaka became the first Sri Lankan to track this elusive “ghost in the darkness,” inspired by wildlife photographer Will Burrard-Lucas’s pioneering camera-trap images. Blending gripping adventure with a noble cause, all profits from the book support the Rotary for Little Hearts project.

Born in the mid-1960s in Sri Lanka’s lush tea country, Senaka grew up in a family that cherished the outdoors. The rolling hills and dense forests were his playground, fostering a deep connection to nature that would define his life. This early bond with the natural world set him on a path of exploration that few from his homeland have followed. By profession, Senaka is a Tea Taster, but his true calling lies beyond the tasting room—in the untamed corners of the planet.

Senaka’s adventures read like a catalogue of the world’s wildest places. In South America, he tracked jaguars and anacondas through the dense Amazon rainforest. He dived into Brazil’s Abismo Anhumas, a surreal underwater cave, and rafted beneath the roaring Iguaçu Falls. His scuba-diving exploits took him from Sri Lanka’s coastal waters to the pristine Similan Islands, all the way to the Myanmar border, where he swam alongside rare tiger sharks, and the whale-rich seas off Vietnam. In Chile’s Patagonian Andes, he pursued elusive pumas across windswept peaks, while Tanzania’s Serengeti brought him face-to-face with cheetahs and a near call with an angry lioness. India’s Bengal tigers, China’s Manchurian tigers, and Indonesia’s Komodo dragons have all crossed his path, each encounter fuelling his insatiable curiosity.

The World of the Black Leopard immerses readers in Laikipia’s wilderness, a hidden Kenyan gem often eclipsed by the Maasai Mara. Few outsiders have glimpsed Giza, a revered “freak of nature” among the Samburu and local tribes. Senaka’s multiple journeys to this mystical plateau spotlight its wonders, inspiring Sri Lankan and global wildlife enthusiasts to explore this remote region. His vivid prose—often penned on his phone amidst rugged terrain—pairs with stunning photography from his vast archive, capturing the wild’s fleeting magic with authenticity and depth.

More than a memoir, the book fuses drama, firsthand knowledge, and philosophical reflection, offering a window into a shrinking habitat through the eyes of a modern explorer inspired by literary giants like Wilbur Smith. Accompanied by breathtaking illustrations, it invites readers on a journey of empathy, awe, and cognitive awakening. For Senaka, the true reward lies in nature’s lessons, not financial gain. All proceeds from The World of the Black Leopard will fund Rotary for Little Hearts, a Rotary District 3220 initiative aiming to raise $1 million for Sri Lanka’s Lady Ridgeway Hospital. This project seeks to expand intensive care and surgical facilities for over 3,000 children born annually with congenital heart defects, giving them a chance at life through Senaka’s lifelong passion.

By Senaka Kotagama

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War and panic take their toll on bourse which recovers somewhat at close

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The CSE kicked off yesterday on a positive note but later selling pressure mounted due to the West Asian crisis which went on to trigger panic- selling of shares. However, at the tail end of the day the market indicated a slight recovery, market analysts said.

The All Share Price Index went down by 253 points, while the S and P SL20 declined by 55.19 points. Turnover stood at Rs 3.32 billion with five crossings.

Those crossings were reported in Central Finance, where 313,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 71.6 million; its shares traded at Rs 228, People’s Leasing 2.2 million shares crossed for Rs 40.7 million and its shares traded at Rs 18.50, Commercial Bank 200,000 shares crossed for Rs 30.4 million; its shares traded at Rs 152, Central Industries 150,000 shares crossed for Rs 23.3 million; its shares sold at Rs 150 and Hemas 745,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 20.6 million; its shares traded at Rs 27.60.

In the retail market top six companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; HNB Rs 212 million (672,000 shares traded), Commercial Bank 197 million (1.31 million shares traded), Sampath Bank Rs 164 million (1.4 million shares traded), Lanka IOC Rs 120 million (871,000 shares traded), Browns Investments Rs 114 million (15.3 million shares traded) and Dipped Products Rs 96.5 million (1.9 million shares traded). During the day 139 million share volumes changed hands in 27968 transactions.

It is said that the banking and financial sector led the market, especially Central Finance and HNB, while the manufacturing sector was the second largest contributor to the market, especially Central Industries. Further, the services sector and the plantations sector did not perform well.

Lankem Ceylon plans a one for three rights issue of 17.15 million ordinary shares at Rs 70 each to raise Rs 1.2 billion, CSE sources said. The cash will be used for part settlement of bank loans. The firm’s current stated capital is Rs1.28 billion made up of 55.4 million ordinary shares.

The rights issue is subject to Colombo Stock Exchange and shareholder approval. A subdivision of shares will follow if the proposed rights issue is fully subscribed, the company said, with 68,627,676 ordinary shares split “on the basis of every One (1) Existing issued Ordinary Share being Sub-divided into Two (2) issued Ordinary Shares, thereby increasing the number of shares of the Company to 137,255,352 shares.”

Yesterday, the rupee opened at Rs 300.50/70 to the US dollar in the spot market, broadly flat against previous day’s close of Rs300.40/60, dealers said, while bond yields were up, particularly in the mid tenors and above.

A bond maturing on 15.12.2026 was quoted at 8.15/25 percent, up from 8.14/20 percent. A bond maturing on 15.09.2027 was quoted at 8.50/60 percent, up from 8.54/60 percent. A bond maturing on 15.10.2028 was quoted at 8.90/9.00 percent. A bond maturing on 15.12.2029 was quoted at 9.62/67 percent, up from 9.52/56 percent. A bond maturing on 15.03.2031 was quoted at 10.05/20 percent, up from 9.98/10.10 percent. A bond maturing on 15.12.2032 was quoted at 10.35/40 percent, up from 10.31/38 percent.

By Hiran H.Senewiratne ✍️

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TVS Motor announces Sudarshan Venu as chairman of the company

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Sudarshan Venu

TVS Motor Company announced today that The Board of Directors unanimously named Sudarshan Venu as incoming Chairman of the Company, in recognition of his exemplary contributions to the Company’s sustained growth and strategic development during his tenure as Director. Effective August 25, 2025, Sudarshan Venu will be appointed as Chairman and Managing Director.

Its current chairman, Sir Ralf Speth, has informed The Board of Directors that he will not be seeking re-appointment as a company Director at the upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM). Consequently, he will step down as Chairman of the Company at the close of the AGM on August 22, 2025.

The Board will also be appointing Sir Ralf Speth as Chief Mentor of the Company for a period of three years effective August 23, 2025, ensuring continued benefit from his extensive knowledge, experience and expertise.

Venu Srinivasan, Chairman Emeritus, TVS Motor Company, said, “I express my sincere gratitude to Ralf for his exceptional leadership as Chairman over the last three years. His contributions have been invaluable in guiding our strategic expansion into global markets and fostering innovation that has significantly strengthened our industry standing. We are grateful for his continued support as Chief Mentor for TVS Motor and in welcoming Sudarshan into his new role. I am confident that Sudarshan, who in his capacity as Managing Director has demonstrated tremendous growth for the business, will take the Company to even greater heights.”

Sir Ralf Speth, said, “It has been an honour for me to steer TVS Motor Company as its Chairman over the last three years. I am grateful for the support, cooperation, and personal friendships developed during my tenure. As I hand over the Chairmanship to Sudarshan, I am confident that under his leadership, the Company will continue its growth journey while championing core TVS values. Sudarshan’s dynamism and passion underscore his vision for the business, and I am confident that TVS is in safe, responsible hands. I wish Sudarshan and TVS Motor a bright future ahead.”

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