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Overcoming Obstacles: The Economic Case for a Sri Lanka-Thailand FTA

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By Asanka Wijesinghe and Nilupulee Rathnayake

In 2019, only 6 % of tea imported by Thailand was from Sri Lanka. This low percentage can be attributed to the difference in preferences and Thailand’s high tariffs of 90 % on imported tea, which act as barriers to Sri Lanka’s tea exports. Additionally, Thailand imposes up to 30 % tariffs on nearly 120 product lines of wearing apparel.

These high tariffs for products with a comparative advantage are not exclusive to Sri Lanka. Thailand also faces higher tariffs for vehicles, rubber, and light-electronics exports which Thailand exports competitively. This tariff structure hampers the bilateral trade of products with a higher comparative advantage for both countries.

Despite these challenges, Sri Lanka and Thailand have expedited the process of signing a free trade agreement (FTA) to boost bilateral trade by threefold to USD 1.5 billion. This article discusses the trade effect of an FTA and a way forward to maximise the gains from an FTA.

Existing Trade is Skewed towards Thailand

In the pre-pandemic period, Sri Lanka-Thailand bilateral trade was nearly USD 500 million. The three-year-2017, 2018 and 2019- average exports from Sri Lanka to Thailand were USD 62.9 million, while the exports from Thailand to Sri Lanka were USD 416.8 million. In 2019, Thailand was the 9th largest import source for Sri Lanka, but Sri Lanka is only the 73rd largest import source for Thailand. The mismatch resulted in a bilateral trade deficit of USD 353.9 million.

The existing exports from Sri Lanka to Thailand do not represent Sri Lanka’s typical export basket. The contribution of traditional exports like ready-made garments, tea, rubber, and coconuts is relatively low, and gems, electrical equipment, wheat flour, and activated carbon contribute to a greater extent. Technically specified natural rubber and latex are the top exports from Thailand which are essential raw materials in the value-added rubber industry of Sri Lanka.

Effect of Lowering Tariffs on Bilateral Trade to Zero

As estimated from partial equilibrium analysis, Sri Lanka will realise a 38 % increase in exports to Thailand if tariffs are reduced to zero (Figure 2). The wearing apparel sector would be the biggest beneficiary, with exports projected to increase by 251 % from USD 6.4 million to USD 22.5 million. Figure 3A provides the top ten exports by Sri Lanka benefitting from a tariff removal by Thailand. The export effect for Thailand will be 27.8 % and Thailand’s rubber and plastic products will be increased by 71.9 % or USD 35.4 million. Products such as smoked sheets of rubber and natural latexwould benefit the most from tariff elimination, as shown in Figure 3B.

Assuming an immediate phasing-out of the existing tariffs, an FTA would increase bilateral trade to USD 619.6 million by 29.1 %. This increase falls short of the ambitious goal of a threefold increase in bilateral trade, at least in the short run.

However, partial equilibrium analysis does not estimate the trade gains from new product innovations due to FDI movements. The estimates also do not account for trade effects through input-output linkages and magnification of tariff effects along the value chains. However, tariff phasing out takes time, and FTA coverages are less than 100 %.

An offensive list contains products for which a country has a comparative advantage, capacity for expansion, and a favourable tariff from the importing country. There are 154 such products for Sri Lanka. Notably, 81 % of the USD 27.6 million export gain from an FTA comes from these 154 product lines. Similarly, 69 % of Thailand’s export gains to Sri Lanka in an FTA comes from 147 products identified for the offensive list.

Once ordered by the estimated export gains, nine out of the top ten products of Sri Lanka’s offensive list are from the wearing apparel sector. For Thailand, vital offensive products are rubber, electric equipment like air-conditioners and refrigerators, and motor vehicles for goods transportation.

Challenges and the Way Forward:

Applying tariff cuts for all the products in the offensive lists is a challenge. Thailand’s high tariffs for tea and ready-made exports indicate its protectionist intent. Likewise, Sri Lanka might prefer to keep tariffs on rubber products. Significant political manoeuvring and delicate negotiations will be required to bring the coverage of the FTA to a satisfactory level. Secondly, an FTA will widen Sri Lanka’s trade deficit with Thailand by 26 % (Figure 4). Although a trade deficit is not necessarily detrimental, it does present a short-term challenge due to increased dollar outflow.

A possible solution is tariff elimination for the products in bilateral value chains. Sri Lanka uses Thailand’s rubber and textile products to produce finished goods. If Thailand removes tariffs for these finished products, increased exports will demand more raw materials. Sri Lanka can reciprocate by eliminating tariffs on raw materials. Phasing-in of the FTA, accounting for required adjustments, will also increase the political feasibility.

Strengthening bilateral trade ties with Thailand offers additional benefits to Sri Lanka. An FTA provides an opportunity to join electric equipment manufacturing value chains and a gateway to ASEAN economies. Thus, Sri Lanka should negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement with investment promotion, trade facilitation, and competition laws. Thailand can leverage Sri Lanka’s position as a distributional hub for regional exports.

Link to Talking Economics blog:

https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2023/05/11/overcoming-obstacles-the-economic-case-for-a-sri-lanka-thailand-fta/ 



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Development deficit getting in the way of SL joining RCEP – Trade Ministry Secretary

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Principal panelists at Pathfinder Foundation forum.

Sri Lanka is not quite ready to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), since it is lacking sufficient development, Trade Ministry Secretary K.A. Vimalenthirarajah said.

‘At present the Trade Ministry is establishing Sri Lanka’s readiness to join RCEP, which consists of 15 countries, through several channels, Vimalenthirarajah said at a recent round table discussion titled, ‘Sri Lanka’s Pathway to RCEP and the Emerging Global Trading Order’, organized by the Pathfinder Foundation and held at the Colombo Club, Taj Samudra.

‘Sri Lanka is actively accelerating its compliance efforts to join the 15-nation RCEP having submitted its required accession questionnaire in early 2026, he explained.

Vimalenthirarajah added: ‘The Cabinet has established a high-level policy and working committee and also obtained some technical assistance from multilateral partners because complying with RCEP requirements is challenging. Subsequently, this body responded to the follow-up questions that came up and had discussions with RCEP representatives and it expects more follow-up questions with regard to Sri Lanka’s readiness to join RCEP.

‘Sri Lanka has also secured political and diplomatic support from current RCEP members, including Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia, to facilitate its entry process.’

Meanwhile, state officials, including Industries and Entrepreneurship Development Deputy Minister Chathuranga Abeysinghe, are implementing key economic structural reforms, a new tariff policy, and transparent investment criteria required by the bloc. Because formal accession protocols for RCEP are still being finalized, Sri Lanka is also simultaneously negotiating bilateral trade and investment agreements with regional members to accelerate integration.

Abeysinghe, participating virtually in the event said that Sri Lanka cannot achieve sustained export growth and attract large-scale investment by relying solely on its domestic market. ‘As a small economy, the country’s future lies in deeper integration with regional and global value chains. RCEP connects 15 economies, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, China and ASEAN member states, collectively accounting for nearly 30% of global trade, he explained.

Abeysinghe added: ‘Access to such a market would create new opportunities for Sri Lankan businesses, particularly the country’s Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which currently contribute only around 10 percent to national exports.

‘However, Sri Lanka is at least a decade behind in implementing many of the reforms required to fully participate in modern global trade. Recognizing this challenge, the government is now moving forward with several critical reforms: A new tariff policy to improve competitiveness and eliminate barriers to trade, transparent and predictable investment criteria, investment facilitation reforms to improve the ease of doing business, new legislation including the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Act and SOE reforms to strengthen investor confidence and measures to improve investment protection and unlock new sources of capital, including venture capital and angel investment funds.

‘Sri Lanka’s exports currently stand at approximately US$ 17 billion and have grown only gradually over the years. Expanding market access through bilateral and multilateral agreements, while continuing domestic reforms, is essential if the country is to achieve its long-term economic ambitions.’

By Hiran H Senewiratne

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Pussalla Agri Ventures secures EU, USDA organic certs, paving way for high-value exports

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Roshan Ranawake, Managing Director of Control Union Sri Lanka, presents the certification to Philip J. Wewita, Chairman of Pussalla Agri Ventures (Pvt) Ltd, in the presence of Dr. Chamindi Jayasooriya, Director, and members of the Pussalla Agri Ventures team.

In a landmark development for Sri Lanka’s organic spice sector, Pussalla Agri Ventures has been awarded both EU Organic and USDA Organic certifications for its premium Ceylon cinnamon products. The certifications were officially conferred at Control Union Sri Lanka, signaling a major milestone in the company’s strategic transformation toward fully certified organic operations.

The recognition strengthens Pussalla Agri Ventures’ position as an emerging exporter of certified organic products, with its flagship offering, organic Ceylon cinnamon (Cinnamomum verum, also known as Cinnamomum zeylanicum), cultivated in Sri Lanka’s traditional cinnamon-growing regions.

Notably, the dual certification opens doors to some of the world’s most lucrative and compliance-driven organic markets, including the European Union and the United States.

Pussalla Agri Ventures began its structured transition into organic cinnamon cultivation several years ago, building a fully integrated system covering cultivation, processing, and value addition. The company currently manages extensive cinnamon cultivation lands and operates under strict organic agricultural principles, ensuring compliance with global certification standards.

These certifications, issued through Control Union Sri Lanka, validate that the company’s farming and processing systems meet rigorous international requirements, including restrictions on synthetic chemicals, comprehensive traceability controls, and environmental sustainability practices. These certifications add to an existing portfolio that already includes SL GAP, Food GMP, and Cosmetic GMP certifications.

Company representatives described the achievement as a “milestone” in the Pussalla organic journey, one that paves the way for expanded access to premium export markets in Europe and the United States. According to them, the certifications are expected to enhance buyer confidence, particularly among health-conscious consumers and clean-label food brands.

Pussalla Agri Ventures emphasised that its organic cinnamon is sourced entirely from its own cultivated estates.

“This estate-to-exporter integration ensures full control over quality, traceability, and processing integrity. The company’s model allows cinnamon to be harvested, processed, and packed under continuously monitored conditions, maintaining strict alignment with international organic standards,” they noted.

Speaking further they said:

“Sri Lanka supplies the majority of the world’s True Ceylon Cinnamon, a spice prized for its delicate aroma, low coumarin levels, and reputed medicinal properties. The growing global demand for certified organic spices has created new opportunities for local producers who meet international compliance standards. Pussalla Agri Ventures’ certification achievement places it among a select group of Sri Lankan exporters adopting globally recognised organic systems, thereby enhancing the country’s reputation in high-value spice markets.”

“As organic food sales continue to rise in North America and Europe, certifications such as these are becoming essential rather than optional. For Pussalla Agri Ventures, the journey from conventional to certified organic is not merely a compliance exercise but a strategic repositioning aimed at long-term sustainability and premium pricing power.”

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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NCCSL to host seminar on data protection & privacy

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The National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka (NCCSL) will host a timely and insightful seminar titled “Data Protection & Privacy: Safeguarding Businesses in the Digital Era” on 18th June 2026, from 9.00 a.m. to 12.30 p.m., at the National Chamber of Commerce Auditorium, Colombo 10 with the objective of enhancing awareness among businesses on emerging cyber risks, data protection requirements, and digital security best practices.

As organizations increasingly rely on digital platforms, online transactions, cloud-based systems, and data-driven operations, protecting sensitive information and ensuring privacy compliance have become critical priorities for organizations of all sizes. The seminar aims to provide practical knowledge and strategic guidance to help businesses strengthen resilience against cyber threats while fostering trust and confidence among customers and stakeholders.

Interested parties are encouraged to register by contacting Udula – 0714034775/ 0114741788  | udula.nccsl@gmail.com or Nishanthi – 0762555707 | nishanthi@nationalchamber.lk

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