Features
Needed: Constitutional reforms plus economic reforms!
By Austin Fernando
Proponents of constitutional economic reforms are struggling to prioritize solutions for the current socio-economic-politico imbroglio. Pohottuwa General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam has said the economic crisis should be resolved first and then an environment created for constitutional amendments. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa banks on the Romesh de Silva Committee for the drafting of a new Constitution. The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, Tamil National Alliance, and Samagi Jana Balavegaya have prioritized enhanced wider constitutional reforms.
The government is allergic to very radical changes demanded by the Gota Go Home protesters et al. Due to intense pressure, the 21st Amendment (21A) has been tabled to revive the 19th Amendment (19A). To my mind, it is a half-baked 19A Minus. It has diluted 19A, which, among other things, prevented the President from holding portfolios and limited the number of Cabinet ministers. The President has brought 42 institutions under the Ministry of Defence through the latest gazette, while admitting that he has made serious mistakes, probably disqualifying him from taking over so many responsibilities.What the pro-democracy activists are demanding are far-reaching changes, such as the President being stripped of immunity and powers to dissolve and prorogue parliament, the pardoning of convicted offenders, etc. It is well-nigh impossible for the 225 MPs to move an impeachment motion to rid of any failed President, but the latter can dissolve the Parliament at the stroke of a pen!
Further, new demands are in circulation, e. g., the creation of a National Policy-Making Council, strengthening public service through depoliticization, enhancing financial accountability (Article 148) through Committee on Public Enterprises, Committee on Public Accounts, Committee on Public Finance, etc. in the Parliament, the appointment of the Monetary Board and the Governor of the Central Bank with Constitutional Council approval, the appointment of the Ministry Secretaries, Provincial Governors, Ambassadors, et al on the advice of the PM in consultation with the Cabinet, etc. 21A does not incorporate any of these and still, government politicians and some civil society spokespersons consider 21A is the best!
Dual citizen decides two-thirds!
One controversial demand is barring dual citizens from holding public office. A section of the Pohottuwa Group opposes this since MP Basil Rajapaksa will be affected. For instance, MP Sagara Kariyawasam, the General Secretary of Pohottuwa, has said that the Constitution should not be designed to target specific individuals. He has overlooked the fact that 20A removed the bar on dual citizens for the benefit of a single individual, namely the same Basil Rajapaksa. In a lighter vein, it is noted that many of those who are opposed to dual citizens holding public office have Prime Ministerial/ Presidential dreams and consider Basil Rajapaksa as a stumbling block to them. They fish in troubled waters!
Controversial proposals of this nature had to be withdrawn to ensure a two-thirds majority when the 19A was approved by Parliament. I think something similar might happen this time around as well. Thinukural reports that Minister Wijedasa Rajapaksa has stated that the “provision on preventing dual citizenship holders from entering parliament is merely a proposal” may be a bargaining signal to withdraw it at the Committee Stage for a two-thirds majority to be mustered. History may repeat itself, and Wijedasa Rajapaksa will be The Saviour!
If the 21A does not receive a two-thirds majority, the President may be the happiest. Some civil society persons, without being critical of attempts to dilute the 19A, claim they accessed the country’s highest political leaders, and everyone agreed with their proposals. But concurrently we hear dissenting voices from the latter, making us wonder who is telling the truth.
Economic and constitutional mess!
Many of the proponents of constitutional reforms steadfastly believe that the economic collapse was due to political mismanagement, exacerbated by 20A, which led to the concentration of too much power in the executive presidency. They insist on reinstating the 19A even with its weaknesses. Another reason is the conviction that the 21A is a halfway measure aimed at strengthening the position of the President. In the meantime, some demand a total system change and think it should be done constitutionally in one go.Several critics believe that no system change could happen unless the President resigns. At a workshop attended also by Aragalaya representatives, this view was emphasied more than anything else. When difficulties were mentioned, they cited the removal of PM Mahinda Rajapaksa as proof of the effectiveness of pressure brought to bear on the government and insisted the President, too, should be similarly dealt with.
The Bar Association of Sri Lanka (BASL) wants the Executive Presidency abolished early. The public, civil society, and the Aragalaya demand that the President leave office immediately. Those canvassing for the abolition of the presidency or/and resignation question why a failed President should be allowed to be in office. Nevertheless, it is difficult under the prevailing constitutional law. This made the Aragalaya demand that the President go home. Those who are supportive of the President claim that he was elected by 6.9 million people, though the reality must be troubling them. PM Ranil Wickremesinghe believes that the BASL is of the view that the 20A must be abolished and does not mention the President’s resignation. True. BASL proposals are extremely proactive, but they are not sacrosanct. Nor are the views of the Aragalaya or civil society views for that matter! The PM thinks that after the passage of the 21A, having restored the 19A, and strengthening the Parliament, the PM, all party leaders, and the President must decide a future course of action.
But the Minister of Justice does not want to restore the 19A through the 21A. Hence, how 21A strengthens the Parliament is an issue. For example, imagine a situation where the Parliament is prorogued to save roguish businesspeople or “bond rogues” or to spite another politician. It is only wishful thinking that the 21A, which provides for the President to do so, will strengthen the Parliament. At a time when the President’s powers to pardon convicts have been challenged before the Supreme Court, moves to retain such power without checks and balances suggested by the BASL are absurd.
Combined Economics and Governance approaches
The success of efforts being made to achieve economic revival with international assistance hinges on not only economic reforms but also the implementation of political reforms. Hence the need for an approach, which supports the combination of both, as evident in the call for “a strong and conducive environment for resolving the balance of payments crisis would be to direct the country to a programme of structural reforms.” They must go hand in hand, and not otherwise. For instance, the IMF Staff Statement speaks of restoring fiscal sustainability, protecting the vulnerable and ensuring credibility of the monetary policy and exchange rate regimes; preserving financial sector stability; and states structural reforms to enhance growth and strengthen governance. Hence it can be seen that economic and political governance is on the IMF agenda.
IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva has stated that what we undergo now is “a result of mismanagement,” and the most important thing to do is to put the island nation back on a sound macroeconomic footing. We know who bungled the macroeconomic footing and who admitted ‘mistakes’ and hence was responsible for mismanagement. The 21A tries to enable those responsible for the current mess to exercise the same powers to mismanage the economy!
The World Bank has said that it works with the IMF and other development partners in advising Sri Lanka on appropriate policies to restore economic stability until an adequate macroeconomic policy framework is in place and does not plan to offer new financing to Sri Lanka. The macroeconomic policy framework will invariably include political governance reforms too.US Ambassador Julie Chung, at a meeting with the Speaker, has emphasized the need to carry out political reforms desired by the people and to safeguard democracy in the country. The Ambassador has said she hopes the government, including the new PM, will be able to bring about political stability and overcome the current economic crisis. Samantha Power, Administrator of USAID, pledged her support to Sri Lankans and committed that USAID would help the country weather the crisis and concurrently stressed the need to urgently undertake political and economic reforms. Samantha Power’s power when she works closely with other donors such as the IMF, the World Bank, G7, and others to support Sri Lanka is assured, but her aforesaid concerns will influence her thinking. Indian PM Narendra Modi has stated that India will continue to stand with Sri Lankans and support democracy, stability, and economic recovery in Sri Lanka. He also combined political stability with economic revival.All foreign dignitaries have stressed the need for political stability, but SLPP General Secretary Kariyawasam is convinced otherwise. Understandably, this is to defend his political boss. He contradicts even the President who has prioritized political reforms. Against this backdrop, the onus is on PM Wickremesinghe to prove that he is in control of the situation.
Way forward
The problems faced by the government in respect of the 21A are very complex. There are conflicting demands even within the government group. Civil society does not speak with one voice. The President’s wishes are reflected in the 21A, for he has confessed that it was proposed with his consent. No President will voluntarily give up powers in 20A. Discussing political power I am reminded of a quote in ‘The Power of Politicians.’
“The need to seek and retain power never goes away, and our political leaders are vulnerable to corruption just by virtue of that. … For a democratically elected politician, walking alongside every policy development, every wish for wisdom, is the thought of what its effect will be on gaining or retaining in power.”
This applies to Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa, et al without exception. They will do everything to gain and retain power. Hence, with many manipulations, Minister Wijedasa Rajapaksa may be able to secure a two-thirds majority for the 21A, after compromising the provisions such as those that prevent dual citizens from holding political office, unless the President and the PM defeat moves being made by Basil.Reviewing the 21A by Minister Rajapaksa and the PM before ratification could prevent mass resistance. Those in civil society and Aragalaya also should consider these practicalities of implementation without saying “To hell with the Constitution.” Aragalaya also needs to gain and retain the power to bring about changes democratically and hence the above-mentioned quote applies to it as well.All politicians can learn a lesson from what Elaine Glaser says in Anti-Politics: “… politics is about a generality of jurisdiction, a social desire to collectively organise how things work- to have a single, agreed way of doing things.” At present we are not destined for such politics but manipulative crookedness. Let this statement be heard by all political groups.
Civil society also should mind the criticism against them as carry-overs of what Hirunika Premachandra started at Mirihana. It must be aware that it should not allow the politicians to take it for a ride with a promise to reduce presidential powers later, to secure a two-thirds majority for the 21A. It will not happen as many in politics whether in the government or the Opposition aspire to use these draconian powers and will fall back at the crucial juncture because as quoted above, they need to ‘gain’ and ‘retain’ power. To PM Wickremesinghe one may say, “Sir, this is the last opportunity for you to make good governance a reality, and do not allow it to be whisked away by manipulations. If you do not achieve it now, you will be called a failure who sinned against democratic good governance values, for which you are beholden even in the international arena.” Let us wait and see whether the PM has heard us!
Features
Counting cats, naming giants: Inside the unofficial science redefining Sri Lanka’s Leopards and Tuskers
For decades, Sri Lanka’s leopard numbers have been debated, estimated, and contested, often based on assumptions few outside academic circles ever questioned.
One of the most fundamental was that a leopard’s spots never change. That belief, long accepted as scientific fact, began to unravel not in a laboratory or lecture hall, but through thousands of photographs taken patiently in the wilds of Yala. At the centre of that quiet disruption stands Milinda Wattegedara.
Sri Lanka’s wilderness has always inspired photographers. Far fewer, however, have transformed photography into a data-driven challenge to established conservation science. Wattegedara—an MBA graduate by training and a wildlife researcher by pursuit—has done precisely that, building one of the most comprehensive independent identification databases of leopards and tuskers in the country.
“I consider myself privileged to have been born and raised in Sri Lanka,” Wattegedara says. “This island is extraordinary in its biodiversity. But admiration alone doesn’t protect wildlife. Accuracy does.”
Raised in Kandy, and educated at Kingswood College, where he captained cricket teams, up to the First XI, Wattegedara’s early years were shaped by discipline and long hours of practice—traits that would later define his approach to field research.
Though his formal education culminated in a Master’s degree in Business Administration from Cardiff Metropolitan University, his professional life gradually shifted toward Sri Lanka’s forests, grasslands, and coastal fringes.
From childhood, two species held his attention: the Sri Lankan leopard and the Asian elephant tusker. Both are icons. Both are elusive. And both, he argues, have been inadequately understood.
His response was methodical. Using high-resolution photography, Wattegedara began documenting individual animals, focusing on repeat sightings, behavioural traits, territorial ranges, and physical markers.
This effort formalised into two platforms—Yala Leopard Diary and Wild Tuskers of Sri Lanka—which function today as tightly moderated research communities rather than casual social media pages.
“My goal was never popularity,” he explains. “It was reliability. Every identification had to stand scrutiny.”
The results are difficult to dismiss. Through collaborative verification and long-term monitoring, his teams have identified over 200 individual leopards across Yala and Kumana National Parks and 280 tuskers across Sri Lanka.
Each animal—whether Jessica YF52 patrolling Mahaseelawa beach or Mahasen T037, the longest tusker bearer recorded in the wild—is catalogued with photographic evidence and movement history.
It was within this growing body of data that a critical inconsistency emerged.
“As injuries accumulated over time, we noticed subtle but consistent changes in rosette and spot patterns,” Wattegedara says. “This directly contradicted the assumption that these markings remain unchanged for life.”
That observation, later corroborated through structured analysis, had serious implications. If leopards were being identified using a limited set of spot references, population estimates risked duplication and inflation.
The findings led to the development of the Multipoint Leopard Identification Method, now internationally published, which uses multiple reference points rather than fixed pattern assumptions. “This wasn’t about academic debate,” Wattegedara notes. “It was about ensuring we weren’t miscounting an endangered species.”
The implications extend beyond Sri Lanka. Overestimated populations can lead to reduced protection, misplaced policy decisions, and weakened conservation urgency.
Yet much of this work has occurred outside formal state institutions.
“There’s a misconception that meaningful research only comes from official channels,” Wattegedara says. “But conservation gaps don’t wait for bureaucracy.”
That philosophy informed his role as co-founder of the Yala Leopard Centre, the world’s first facility dedicated solely to leopard education and identification. The Centre serves as a bridge between researchers, wildlife enthusiasts, and the general public, offering access to verified knowledge rather than speculation.
In a further step toward transparency, Artificial Intelligence has been introduced for automatic leopard identification, freely accessible via the Centre and the Yala Leopard Diary website. “Technology allows consistency,” he explains. “And consistency is everything in long-term studies.”
His work with tuskers mirrors the same precision. From Minneriya to Galgamuwa, Udawalawe to Kala Wewa, Wattegedara has documented generations of bull elephants—Arjuna T008, Kawanthissa T075, Aravinda T112—not merely as photographic subjects, but as individuals with lineage, temperament, and territory.
This depth of observation has also earned him recognition in wildlife photography, including top honours from the Photographic Society of Sri Lanka and accolades from Sanctuary Asia’s Call of the Wild. Still, he is quick to downplay awards.
“Photographs are only valuable if they contribute to understanding,” he says.
Today, Wattegedara’s co-authored identification guides on Yala leopards and Kala Wewa tuskers are increasingly referenced by researchers and field naturalists alike. His work challenges a long-standing divide between citizen science and formal research.
“Wildlife doesn’t care who publishes first,” he reflects. “It only responds to how accurately we observe it.”
In an era when Sri Lanka’s protected areas face mounting pressure—from tourism, infrastructure, and climate stress—the question of who counts wildlife, and how, has never been more urgent.
By insisting on precision, patience, and proof, Milinda Wattegedara has quietly reframed that conversation—one leopard, one tusker, and one verified photograph at a time.
By Ifham Nizam ✍️
Features
AI in Schools: Preparing the Nation for the Next Technological Leap
This summary document is based on an exemplary webinar conducted by the Bandaranaike Academy for Leadership & Public Policy ((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqZGjlaMC08). I participated in the session, which featured multiple speakers with exceptional knowledge and experience who discussed various aspects of incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into the education system and other sectors.
There was strong consensus that this issue must be addressed early, before the nation becomes vulnerable to external actors seeking to exploit AI for their own advantage. Given her educational background, the Education Minister—and the Prime Minister—are likely to be fully aware of this need. This article is intended to support ongoing efforts in educational reform, including the introduction of AI education in schools for those institutions willing to adopt it.
Artificial intelligence is no longer a futuristic concept. Today, it processes vast amounts of global data and makes calculated decisions, often to the benefit of its creators. However, most users remain unaware of the information AI gathers or the extent of its influence on decision-making. Experts warn that without informed and responsible use, nations risk becoming increasingly vulnerable to external forces that may exploit AI.
The Need for Immediate Action
AI is evolving rapidly, leaving traditional educational models struggling to keep pace. By the time new curricula are finalised, they risk becoming outdated, leaving both students and teachers behind. Experts advocate immediate government-led initiatives, including pilot AI education programs in willing schools and nationwide teacher training.
“AI is already with us,” experts note. “We must ensure our nation is on this ‘AI bus’—unlike past technological revolutions, such as IT, microchips, and nanotechnology, which we were slow to embrace.”
Training Teachers and Students
Equipping teachers to introduce AI, at least at the secondary school level, is a crucial first step. AI can enhance creativity, summarise materials, generate lesson plans, provide personalised learning experiences, and even support administrative tasks. Our neighbouring country, India, has already begun this process.
Current data show that student use of AI far exceeds that of instructors—a gap that must be addressed to prevent misuse and educational malpractice. Specialists recommend piloting AI courses as electives, gathering feedback, and continuously refining the curriculum to prepare students for an AI-driven future.
Benefits of AI in Education
AI in schools offers numerous advantages:
· Fosters critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills
· Enhances digital literacy and ethical awareness
· Bridges the digital divide by promoting equitable AI literacy
· Supports interdisciplinary learning in medicine, climate science, and linguistics
· Provides personalised feedback and learning experiences
· Assists students with disabilities through adaptive technologies like text-to-speech and visual recognition
AI can also automate administrative tasks, freeing teachers to focus on student engagement and social-emotional development—a key factor in academic success.
Risks and Challenges
Despite its potential, AI presents challenges:
· Data privacy concerns and misuse of personal information
· Over-reliance on technology, reducing teacher-student interactions
· Algorithmic biases affecting educational outcomes
· Increased opportunities for academic dishonesty if assessments rely on rote memorisation
Experts emphasise understanding these risks to ensure the responsible and ethical use of AI.
Global and Local Perspectives
In India, the Central Board of Secondary Education plans to introduce AI and computational thinking from Grades 3 to 12 by 2026. Sri Lanka faces a similar challenge. Many university students and academics already rely on AI, highlighting the urgent need for a structured yet rapidly evolving national curriculum that incorporates AI responsibly.
The Way Forward
Experts urge swift action:
· Launch pilot programs in select schools immediately.
· Provide teacher training and seed funding to participating educational institutions.
· Engage universities to develop short AI and innovation training programs.
“Waiting for others to lead risks leaving us behind,” experts warn. “It’s time to embrace AI thoughtfully, responsibly, and inclusively—ensuring the whole nation benefits from its opportunities.”
As AI reshapes our world, introducing it in schools is not merely an educational initiative—it is a national imperative.
BY Chula Goonasekera ✍️
on behalf of LEADS forum admin@srilankaleads.com
Features
The Paradox of Trump Power: Contested Authoritarian at Home, Uncontested Bully Abroad
The Trump paradox is easily explained at one level. The US President unleashes American superpower and tariff power abroad with impunity and without contestation. But he cannot exercise unconstitutional executive power including tariff power without checks and challenges within America. No American President after World War II has exercised his authority overseas so brazenly and without any congressional referral as Donald Trump is getting accustomed to doing now. And no American President in history has benefited from a pliant Congress and an equally pliant Supreme Court as has Donald Trump in his second term as president.
Yet he is not having his way in his own country the way he is bullying around the world. People are out on the streets protesting against the wannabe king. This week’s killing of 37 year old Renee Good by immigration agents in Minneapolis has brought the City to its edge five years after the police killing of George Floyd. The lower courts are checking the president relentlessly in spite of the Supreme Court, if not in defiance of it. There are cracks in the Trump’s MAGA world, disillusioned by his neglect of the economy and his costly distractions overseas. His ratings are slowly but surely falling. And in an electoral harbinger, New York has elected as its new mayor, Zoran Mamdani – a wholesale antithesis of Donald Trump you can ever find.
Outside America it is a different picture. The world is too divided and too cautious to stand up to Trump as he recklessly dismantles the very world order that his predecessors have been assiduously imposing on the world for nearly a hundred years. A few recent events dramatically illustrate the Trump paradox – his constraints at home and his freewheeling abroad.
Restive America
Two days before Christmas, the US Supreme Court delivered a rare rebuke to the Trump Administration. After a host of rulings that favoured Trump by putting on hold, without full hearing, lower court strictures against the Administration, the Supreme Court by a 6-3 majority decided to leave in place a Federal Court ruling that barred Trump from deploying National Guard troops in Chicago. Trump quietly raised the white flag and before Christmas withdrew the federal troops he had controversially deployed in Chicago, Portland and Los Angeles – all large cities run by Democrats.
But three days after the New Year, Trump airlifted the might of the US Army to encircle Venezuela’s capital Caracas and spirit away the country’s President Nicolás Maduro, and his wife Celia Flores, all the way to New York to stand trial in an American Court. What is not permissible in any American City was carried out with absolute impunity in a foreign capital. It turns out the Administration has no plan for Venezuela after taking out Maduro, other than Trump’s cavalier assertion, “We’re going to run it, essentially.” Essentially, the Trump Administration has let Maduro’s regime without Maduro to run the country but with the US in total control of Venezuela’s oil.
Next on the brazen list is Greenland, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio who manipulated Maduro’s ouster is off to Copenhagen for discussions with the Danish government over the future of Greenland, a semi-autonomous part of Denmark. Military option is not off the table if a simple real estate purchase or a treaty arrangement were to prove infeasible or too complicated. That is the American position as it is now customarily announced from the White House podium by the Administration’s Press Secretary Karolyn Leavitt, a 28 year old Catholic woman from New Hampshire, who reportedly conducts a team prayer for divine help before appearing at the lectern to lecture.
After the Supreme Court ruling and the Venezuela adventure, the third US development relevant to my argument is the shooting and killing of a 37 year old white American woman by a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer in Minneapolis, at 9:30 in the morning, Wednesday, January 7th. Immediately, the Administration went into pre-emptive attack mode calling the victim a “deranged leftist” and a “domestic terrorist,” and asserting that the ICE officer was acting in self-defense. That line and the description are contrary to what many people know of the victim, as well as what people saw and captured on their phones and cameras.
The victim, Renee Nicole Good, was a mother of three and a prize-winning poet who self-described herself a “poet, writer, wife and mom.” A newcomer to Minneapolis from Colorado, she was active in the community and was a designated “legal observer of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities,” to monitor interactions between ICE agents and civilian protesters that have become the norm in large immigrant cities in America. Renee Good was at the scene in her vehicle to observe ICE operations and community protesters.
In video postings that last a matter of nine seconds, two ICE officers are seen approaching Good’s vehicle and one of them trying to open her door; a bystander is heard screaming “No” as Good is seen trying to drive away; and a third ICE officer is seen standing in front of her moving vehicle, firing twice in the direction of the driver, moving to a side and firing a third time from the side. Good’s car is seen going out of control, careening and coming to a stop on a snowbank. Yet America is being bombarded with two irreconcilable narratives – one manufactured by Trump’s Administration and the other by those at the scene and everyone opposed to the regime.
It adds to the explosiveness of the situation that Good was shot and killed not far from where George Folyd was killed, also in Minneapolis, on 25th May, 2020, choked under the knee of a heartless policeman. And within 48 hours of Good’s killing, two Americans were shot and injured by two federal immigration agents, in Portland, Oregon, on the Westcoast. Trump’s attack on immigrants and the highhanded methods used by ICE agents have become the biggest flashpoint in the political opposition to the Trump presidency. People are organizing protests in places where ICE agents are apprehending immigrants because those who are being aggressively and violently apprehended have long been neighbours, colleagues, small business owners and students in their communities.
Deportation of illegal immigrants is not something that began under Trump. It has been going on in large numbers under all recent presidents including Obama and Biden. But it has never been so cruel and vicious as it is now under Trump. He has turned it into a television spectacle and hired large number of new ICE agents who are politically prejudiced and deployed them without proper training. They raid private homes and public buildings, including schools, looking for immigrants. When faced with protesters they get into clashes rather than deescalating the situation as professional police are trained to do. There is also the fear that the Administration may want to escalate confrontations with protesters to create a pretext for declaring martial law and disrupt the midterm congressional elections in November this year.
But the momentum that Trump was enjoying when he began his second term and started imposing his executive authority, has all but vanished and all within just one year in office. By the time this piece appears in print, the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs (expected on Friday) may be out, and if as expected the ruling goes against Trump that will be a massive body blow to the Administration. Trump will of course use a negative court ruling as the reason for all the economic woes under his presidency, but by then even more Americans would have become tired of his perpetually recycled lies and boasts.
An Obliging World
To get back to my starting argument, it is in this increasingly hostile domestic backdrop that Trump has started looking abroad to assert his power without facing any resistance. And the world is obliging. The western leaders in Europe, Canada and Australia are like the three wise monkeys who will see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil – of anything that Trump does or fails to do. Their biggest fear is about the Trump tariffs – that if they say anything critical of Trump he will magnify the tariffs against their exports to the US. That is an understandable concern and it would be interesting to see if anything will change if the US Supreme Court were to rule against Trump and reject his tariff powers.
Outside the West, and with the exception of China, there is no other country that can stand up to Trump’s bullying and erratic wielding of power. They are also not in a position to oppose Trump and face increased tariffs on their exports to the US. Putin is in his own space and appears to be assured that Trump will not hurt him for whatever reason – and there are many of them, real and speculative. The case of the Latin American countries is different as they are part of the Western Hemisphere, where Trump believes he is monarch of all he surveys.
After more than a hundred years of despising America, many communities, not just regimes, in the region seem to be warming up to Trump. The timing of Trump’s sequestering of Venezuela is coinciding with a rising right wing wave and regime change in the region. An October opinion poll showed 53% of Latin American respondents reacting positively to a then potential US intervention in Venezuela while only 18% of US respondents were in favour of intervention. While there were condemnations by Latin American left leaders, seven Latin American countries with right wing governments gave full throated support to Trump’s ouster of Maduro.
The reasons are not difficult to see. The spread of crime induced by the commerce of cocaine has become the number one concern for most Latin Americans. The socio-religious backdrop to this is the evangelisation of Christianity at the expense of the traditional Catholic Church throughout Latin America. And taking a leaf from Trump, Latin Americans have also embraced the bogey of immigration, mainly influenced by the influx of Venezuelans fleeing in large numbers to escape the horrors of the Maduro regime.
But the current changes in Latin America are not necessarily indicative of a durable ideological shift. The traditional left’s base in the subcontinent is still robust and the recent regime changes are perhaps more due to incumbency fatigue than shifts in political orientations. The left has been in power for the greater part of this century and has not been able to provide answers to the real questions that preoccupied the people – economic affordability, crime and cocaine. It has not been electorally smart for the left to ignore the basic questions of the people and focus on grand projects for the intelligentsia. Exhibit #1 is the grand constitutional project in Chile under outgoing President Gabriel Borich, but it is not the only one. More romantic than realistic, Boric’s project titillated liberal constitutionalists the world over, but was roundly rejected by Chileans.
More importantly, and sooner than later, Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and his intended takeover of the country’s oil business will produce lasting backlashes, once the initial right wing euphoria starts subsiding. Apart from the bully force of Trump’s personality, the mastermind behind the intervention in Venezuela and policy approach towards Latin America in general, is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the former Cuban American Senator from Florida and the principal leader of the group of Cuban neocons in the US. His ultimate objective is said to be achieving regime change in Cuba – apparently a psychological settling of scores on behalf Cuban Americans who have been dead set against Castro’s Cuba after the overthrow of their beloved Batista.
Mr. Rubio is American born and his parents had left Cuba years before Fidel Castro displaced Fulgencio Batista, but the family stories he apparently grew up hearing in Florida have been a large part of his self-acknowledged political makeup. Even so, Secretary Rubio could never have foreseen a situation such as an externally uncontested Trump presidency in which he would be able to play an exceptionally influential role in shaping American policy for Latin America. But as the old Burns’ poem rhymes, “The best-laid plans of men and mice often go awry.”
by Rajan Philips ✍️
-
News2 days agoSajith: Ashoka Chakra replaces Dharmachakra in Buddhism textbook
-
Business2 days agoDialog and UnionPay International Join Forces to Elevate Sri Lanka’s Digital Payment Landscape
-
Features2 days agoThe Paradox of Trump Power: Contested Authoritarian at Home, Uncontested Bully Abroad
-
News7 days agoInterception of SL fishing craft by Seychelles: Trawler owners demand international investigation
-
Features2 days agoSubject:Whatever happened to (my) three million dollars?
-
News2 days agoLevel I landslide early warnings issued to the Districts of Badulla, Kandy, Matale and Nuwara-Eliya extended
-
News7 days agoBroad support emerges for Faiszer’s sweeping proposals on long- delayed divorce and personal law reforms
-
News2 days agoNational Communication Programme for Child Health Promotion (SBCC) has been launched. – PM
