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Mandate of Ministry of Power – Some ambiguities, conflicts and barriers

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By Dr. Janaka Ratnasiri

The Gazette Notification Extraordinary No. 2187/27 of 09.08.2020 stipulates the mandates of ministries, both Cabinet and State, and the institutes coming under their purview. One common requirement of these mandates is that they should align with the President’s policy document “Vistas of Prosperity and Splendour (VPS)”. In assigning functions among ministries, one deviation from the past practice hitherto followed is the division of Ministry of Power and Energy into two separate ministries, Ministry of Power and Ministry of Energy. There is some sense in this decision (See also The Island of 14.08.2020). It is hoped this change is for the better and not for the worse, as usually happens.

MANDATE OF MINISTRY OF POWER AND STATE MINISTRY OF RENEWABLE ENERGY

The key mandate of the Power Ministry is given as:

Meeting the electricity needs of all urban and rural communities, based on the long-term generation expansion (LTGE) plan prepared by the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB).

Supplying electricity to business enterprises in Sri Lanka enabling them to be competitive in the global market, and ensuring energy security.

Among the special priority areas identified for the Power Ministry are the following:

Expand the capacity of the Puttalam coal power plant, with additional investment.

Balance the generation mix from renewable energy plants, thermal power plants and natural gas power plants while minimizing the cost of generation and eliminating any uncertainties in generation.

Implement the long-term generation expansion plan.

Improve the efficiency of transmission and distribution systems.

Minimize the cost of electricity for manufacturing industries enabling their competitiveness in global markets.

Special priority areas identified for the State Ministry Renewable Energy, are the following:

Convert the Kelanitissa power plant to a natural gas turbine plant, and expand the Kerawalapitiya power plant.

Develop a smart network ensuring generation efficiency and optimizing its use.

Encourage the use of roof-top solar PV panels in households, commercial establishments and factories, enabling supply of electricity at low cost.

Encourage the private sector and entrepreneurs to establish renewable energy projects.

Add to the national grid the Broadlands Hydropower (HP) plant by 2020, Uma Oya HP plant by 2021, Moragolla HP plant by 2023, Thalapitigala and Seethawaka HP plants by 2024.

Add to the national grid the Mannar 100 MW wind power plant by 2021 and add 800 MW of wind and solar systems set up at Mannar, Pooneryn and Moneragala.

PROVISIONS IN “VISTAS OF PROSPERITY AND SPLENDOUR”

The VPS document has no separate section on Power Sector, but has only a section on Renewable Energy (RE), highlighting the President’s desire to give priority for renewable energy. The preamble to this section says “Renewable energy has now become a widely discussed subject and is needed as part of the overall energy mix of a country, which consists of Hydro, Thermal, Coal and alternative renewable energies. It will ensure that the country has access to low cost energy needed for rapid economic acceleration. By 2030, we expect the country’s renewable energy mix to be 40% of the total portfolio. We also anticipate that hydro and renewable energy together would account for 80% of the overall energy mix by 2030”.

The following targets on power sector development are also given in the VPS document.

According to the current plan, we will take actions to add 230MW of power to the national grid by installing the Broadland hydropower station by 2020, Uma Oya by 2021, Moragolla by 2023, Talapitigala and Seethawaka by 2024.

Immediate actions will be taken to convert the Kelanitissa plant to a natural gas turbine plant, where similar two plants will be implemented in Kerawalapitiya and Hambantota before 2023.

As part of the environmental-friendly policy, we will convert the fuel-powered plants located around the Colombo area to natural gas turbine plants within the next year.

With respect to transformation towards Renewable Energy, the VPS document says:

We will add 100 MW of wind energy in Mannar by 2021. Additionally, we expect to add 800 MW of solar energy to the national grid by executing a wind and solar power project with a public-private partnership in potential locations around the country including Mannar, Poonareyn and Monaragala.

Roof top solar systems will be encouraged so that households and small businesses wo

uld have access to low cost energy, which will be done in the course of the next five years.

We will remove all impediments and incentivize the private sector and entrepreneurs interested in setting up renewable energy projects i.e. solar and wind, and to this end, the government will provide assistance.

We will also introduce an efficient energy generation programme using industrial waste in each city.

We will introduce new policies and legislation to ensure the efficient use of energy in construction sector.

AMBIGUITY IN TARGETS GIVEN IN THE VPS DOCUMENT

The preamble to the section on Renewable Energy in the VPS document says “By 2030, we expect the country’s renewable energy mix to be 40% of the total portfolio. We also anticipate that hydro and renewable energy together would account for 80% of the overall energy mix by 2030”. There is much ambiguity in this statement. Firstly, it is not clear what is meant by “total portfolio”. Secondly, it is not clear whether the term “overall energy” means energy consumed in all sectors including power, transport, industries, commercial and households or whether it means energy consumed in the power sector only. On the face of it, overall energy would mean the former.

But the State Minister of Solar Power, Wind and Hydro Power Generation Projects Development was heard over the TV recently saying that his Ministry’s target is to generate electricity up to 80% of the total electricity generation from renewable energy sources by 2030, in compliance with the VPS document. Obviously, the author of this document has erred when he said that 80% target is in respect of overall energy, if the State Minister’s word is taken as correct.

In an article published by the author in The Island of 19, 20, and 21 of February, 2020, he described, in detail a scheme to meet 80% of the total energy consumption from renewable energy sources by 2030 considering all sectors, including power, industries, transport, commercial and households. The scheme included operating wind power and solar power units as stand-alone systems generating direct current for electrolyzing water and producing hydrogen. There are several options available to use hydrogen to meet the energy needs in power, industries and transport sectors. Another option given in the article is to convert biomass into a liquid fuel for use in transport and households.

Energy generation and consumption data in different sectors in Sri Lanka is given in the Energy Balance Statement (EBS) prepared annually by the Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority (SLSEA). The latest EBS is available only in respect of 2017. Table 1 gives data taken from the EBS and it shows that Sri Lanka has already achieved 45% of renewable energy share in the total energy mix in 2017. Hence, to give a target of 40% to be achieved in 2030 has no meaning.

Table 1 Overall Energy consumption given in 2017 EBSFuelQuantityUnitEnergy Content

(PJ)Share %Petroleum oil 5,375kt232.0 43.9Coal 2,156kt 56.9 10.7Sub-Total (Fossil Fuels) 54.6Major hydro 3,075GWh 30.9 5.8Biomass11,810kt192.9 36.5Other Renewables 1,650GWh 16.2 3.1Sub-Total (Renewables) 45.4Total528.9100.0 ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY 2030

The CEB prepares biennially a long-term generation expansion (LTGE) plan outlining the least cost options of generation plants that need to be added to the system annually for the next 20 years. The latest plan is in respect of the period 2020 – 2039 which is still in the draft form yet to be approved by the Public Utilities Commission, Sri Lanka (PUCSL) and scrutinized by the public. The Plan includes a Base Case that will meet the needs of average demand as well as other cases to meet the needs of high and low demand. Table 2 gives the capacity of different types of generating units that need to be added during 2020 – 2030 as given under Base Case.

Table 2. Capacity additions proposed in LTGE Plan 2020-39Type of plantCapacity to be added during 2020-2030

MWMajor hydropower plants627Solar PV plants900Wind power plants675Biomass plants55Mini-hydro plants165Diesel plants665Gas turbine plants70Combine cycle gas turbine plants1,500New Coal power plants 1,200

The LTGE Plan has also worked out the average generation from each plant type annually and the values obtained for 2030 are given in Table 3, extracted from the data given in Annex 8.4 of LTGE Plan. It is to be noted that it is not possible to forecast exact values for generation from each category in the future because it depends on many extraneous factors such as rainfall, cloud cover, wind regime, fuel prices and demand which are not known accurately in advance. Annex 8.4 gives both average values as well as high and low extreme values anticipated considering the uncertainties. Table 3 gives only the average values anticipated.

It is seen that according to CEB’s LTGE Plan for 2020-39, generation from renewable sources could reach only 35% by 2030, which is far below the 80% target given in President’s VPS Policy Document, assuming what is intended by “total energy” appearing in this document is total electricity generation. In order to align with the President’s policy, CEB will therefore have to come out with a revised plan for capacity additions reducing the thermal plant capacity and correspondingly increasing the RE systems enabling to raise the RE share in total electricity generation from 35% to 80% by 2030.

Table 3. Forecasted average generation in 2030 Plant categoryCapacity MWGeneration GWhMajor hydropower plants1,607 4,364Other renewable energy plants2,700 6,738Sub-total – RE sources4,30711,102Reciprocating plants 136 413Existing coal power plant 810 4,781Existing combined cycle plants 594 1,825New gas turbine plant 70 113NG combined cycle plants 1,500 5,783New coal power plants1,200 7,721Sub-total – Thermal4,31020,636Total31,738Share of RE generation35.0%

OPTIONS FOR MEETING THE PRESIDENT’S TARGET

The obvious choice for meeting the President’s target is to shift from coal power to solar and wind power. In an article written by the author appearing in the Island of July 31st and August 1st, 2020, he showed that by shifting from coal power to solar and wind power, CEB can save over 100 billion rupees annually. This is based on the price of LKR/kWh 10 offered in an on-going wind power project and bids received for solar power projects as divulged by CEB Chairman (Island of 24.07.2020). This is much less than the average cost of generation incurred by CEB which is LKR/kWh 23. In addition to the expenditure saved, adopting solar and wind power gives a bonus of providing pollution free generation.

Several proposals for building large scale solar power plants and wind power plants have been granted Cabinet approval in 2016 and 2017, but there have been no follow up measures taken to pursue them by the CEB. This is despite their economic and environmental advantages. With the announcement of President’s policy on promoting renewable energy, it is hoped that the officials in the Power Ministry and CEB will change their mindset and implement the proposed RE projects without delay. In order to get the private sector involved in this exercise, the present limitation of 10 MW for the development of RE projects by the private sector has to be removed.

The officials of the Power Ministry as well as of the CEB need to be reminded of the statement “We will remove all impediments and incentivize the private sector and entrepreneurs interested in setting up renewable energy projects i.e. solar and wind, and to this end, the government will provide assistance” appearing in the VPS policy document under Renewable Energy section. It is essential that they change their lackadaisical attitude towards renewable energy, if the President’s targets are to be achieved.

The mandate of the State Ministry of Renewable Energy includes building of large scale solar and wind power plants as priority areas. However, their implementation will be possible only with the concurrence of CEB, which was lacking in the past RE projects. There were also media reports of India offering a large solar park under the International Solar Alliance initiated by the Indian Prime Minister together with the French President at the Climate Change Summit Conference held in 2015. Sri Lanka should accept this offer and accelerate building up its solar power capacity.

Another option available is to increase the large hydropower capacity. The general thinking on this is that there are no more suitable sites available to build large hydropower plants in Sri Lanka. However, it is possible to build a large hydro power plant by building a new reservoir on Kotmale Oya below St. Clair’s waterfall and linking it to the existing shaft of the Upper Kotmale Power Plant. This will enable it to operate during the day increasing its plant factor rather than operate only as a peaking plant as done now. Water spilling over the Upper Kotmale Reservoir as well as water flowing down Devon’s water fall can be collected in this new reservoir.

This proposal was made by the Central Engineering Consulting Bureau (CECB) during the planning stage of Upper Kotmale project but not accepted by the Japanese Contractors. It has the potential to add about 160 MW of capacity, generating additional 520 GWh of RE annually. This is a better option than diverting water from Pundalu Oya to the shaft of the Upper Kotmale Project as proposed by CEB in its 2020-39 Plan.

The CEB’s LTGE Plan has given low priority for biomass power plants, adding only 5 MW capacity annually. This can be easily enhanced by setting up dedicated energy plantations and mixed plantations which will generate more renewable energy. It will also provide more opportunities for income generation to rural people and providing fodder to maintain a livestock industry. The colossal sum of money spent annually on importing fuel for thermal power plants presently could be retained in the country by developing biomass power plants.

It has been estimated that 1 ha of dedicated plantation of a crop such as gliricidia will yield 10 t of biomass annually. Assuming combustion of 1 t of biomass with 33% efficiency will generate 1.5 MWh of electricity, 1 ha of plantations has the capacity to generate energy equivalent to 15 MWh. Hence, to replace 1 MW of thermal power plant, about 500 ha energy plantations are required. This could be on new land or on home gardens and abandoned cropland including fallowed paddy land.

In 2019, the Cabinet declared 2022 as the year of Biomass Energy with the objective of promoting energy generation from biomass. Already, SLSEA is pursuing a project funded partly by UNDP and FAO for “Promoting Sustainable Biomass Energy Production and Modern Bio-Energy Technologies” with the specific objective of removing obstacles to the realization of sustainable biomass plantation, increase of market share of biomass energy generation and adoption of biomass- based energy technologies in Sri Lanka. Currently, a survey is planned to identify land available and suitable for energy plantations. Findings of this study will help developing more biomass power capacity at commercial scale by 2030.

CONFLICT BETWEEN THE POWER MINISTRY MANDATE AND VPS POLICY DOCUMENT

The Power Ministry mandate has the following provisions pertaining to the LTGE Plan and Puttalam Coal power plant.

Meeting the electricity needs of all urban and rural communities based on the long-term generation expansion (LTGE) plan prepared by the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB).

Expand the capacity of the Puttalam coal power plant with additional investment.

Implement the long-term generation expansion plan.

As mentioned previously, CEB’s current plan envisages building 1,200 MW of coal power plants by 2030. Though it is consistent with the above mandate of the Power Ministry, its implementation will result in achieving only 35% share for RE plants out of total generation by 2030. This is in violation of the VPS targets. Hence, either the State Ministry should pursue more RE projects disregarding what was specified in the CEB’s LTGE Plan or the CEB revise its Plan to align with the President’s VPS document.

The VPS document has the following statement:

As part of the environmental-friendly policy, we will convert the fuel-powered plants located around the Colombo area to natural gas turbine plants within the next year.

It is gratifying to note that the new Government has decided to adopt an environment-friendly policy. However, it should apply not only to Kelanitissa Complex, but also to Puttalam Power Plant as well where the pollution is much severe than at Kelanitissa, particularly arising out of million tonnes of ash accumulated over the years containing many toxic heavy metals including mercury and arsenic.

Hence, in keeping with this policy, the proposal to add another 300 MW coal power plant to Puttalam Complex should be scrapped and instead the government should build a NG operated power plant of similar capacity which will be cheaper and easier to operate and maintain. Further, it will not emit any polluting gases such as Sulphur Dioxide or any particulates or any ash at all. Even the emission of other gases such as Carbon Dioxide contributing to global warming and Oxides of Nitrogen will be very much less.

Also, the LTGE Plan is highly flawed. It is supposed to determine which power technology will be the cheapest in 20 years hence based on current prices. With the cost of generation depending on plant capital cost and fuel prices both of which could vary widely within a span of 20 years, it is futile to make forecasts now as to which technology is the cheapest in 20 years hence and to adopt it. The technology should be selected after calling for bids for different technologies and selecting the most economic plant that meets detailed performance specifications as well as specifications on emission limits. This should be done at the time of building the plant and not based on flawed forecasts. Hence, stipulating a mandate to follow a flawed plan does not make sense.

BARRIERS AGAINST THE STATE MINISTRY AND VPS MANDATE

The State Ministry mandate has the following requirement:

Convert the Kelanitissa power plant to a natural gas turbine plant, and expand the Kerawalapitiya power plant.

The VPS document has the following requirements:

Immediate actions will be taken to convert the Kelanitissa plant to a natural gas turbine plant, where similar two plants will be implemented in Kerawalapitiya and Hambantota before 2023.

As part of the environmental-friendly policy, we will convert the fuel-powered plants located around the Colombo area to natural gas turbine plants within the next year.

Conversion to natural gas operation is possible with gas turbine power plants, both open cycle gas turbines (OCGT) and combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT). The latter comprises of two generating units, a gas turbine and a steam turbine which operates with hot exhaust gas released by the gas turbine without consuming additional fuel. Hence, a CCGT plant has a high efficiency exceeding 50%.

At Kelanitissa Complex, there are two OCGT plants with capacities 80 MW and 115 MW commissioned in 1981/82 and 1997, respectively, and two CCGT plants with capacities 165 MW and 163 MW commissioned in 2001/03 and 2003, respectively. All these power plants currently operate with auto diesel, except that the CEB owned 165 MW plant operates partly with diesel and partly with naphtha produced as a surplus in the refinery. All these plants can be converted to operate with NG after modifying their fuel injection systems, if it is found economical to do so considering their age. However, the non-availability of NG is a barrier to convert them within the specified time targets given in the mandates.

In order to convert these gas turbine plants to operate on NG, first NG will have to be imported in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for which special unloading jetties on land or floating units need to be built which takes several years. Though negotiations were held with India and Japan for several years after signing memoranda of understanding with them for building a terminal and importing LNG, no progress has been made public on this project. It was also reported in the media that CEB is seeking assistance from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to establish a terminal for importing LNG.

Originally, the Ministry of Petroleum had the mandate for importing LNG, but because of the ministry’s inaction, the CEB obtained Cabinet approval for them to import LNG directly. However, under the new government, all matters relating to petroleum including NG comes under the purview of the Ministry of Energy. It is to be seen how the two ministries will coordinate to supply NG for operating not only these existing gas turbine power plants but also the proposed new gas turbine power plants. Importing of LNG needs to follow international protocols and has to be handled by competent operators after having in place the necessary regulatory framework on safety aspects and issuing licenses for operators.

CONCLUSION

The mandate given to the Ministry of Power recommends the establishment of coal power plants in keeping with the long-term generation expansion plan of CEB. On the other hand, the mandates given to the State Ministry for Renewable Energy recommends conversion of existing thermal power plants to operate on natural gas in keeping with the environment-friendly policy of the government. Therefore, to be consistent in applying this policy, the proposed 300 MW coal power plant to be built at Puttalam should also be converted into a gas power plant.

This could be best done by expediting the building of the 300 MW gas power plant at Kerawalapitiya for which the Cabinet approval has already been granted after a procurement process which got dragged for nearly 4 years. This plant, which could be built much faster than the coal power plant, will be able to meet any power deficit anticipated in a few years’ time. It appears that the Ministry is holding back this project for reasons best known to them and the new Minister should use his good office to expedite the project without listening to officials who were responsible for delaying it. The most practicable way of achieving these targets is to appoint a new set of young honest officers not allergic to renewable energy and gas power to take decisions on these matters.

 



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Lunatics of genius

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Brahms and Simon

Tales of Mystery and Suspense 2

A very different sort of murder mystery today, one of the few intended to provide laughter too. Written in the thirties, it deals with a murder during a ballet, its title being A Bullet at the Ballet. It was a collaborative effort by Caryl Brahms and S J Simon, to whom I was introduced nearly half a century ago by Robert Scoble, the friend with whom I have discussed and shared books more than with anyone else.

Brahms was a ballet critic whose parents were Jews who had emigrated to Britain from Turkey while Simon was born in Manchuria in 1904 to a White Russian Jewish family, and then ended up in England, where he was renowned as an expert on bridge.

Having been fellow lodgers in London, they wrote together for newspapers and then tried out a novel. A Bullet in the Ballet, published in 1937, was an instant success, and over the next few years they published a couple of sequels, involving the Ballet Stroganoff, and the detective Adam Quill, who was tasked with investigating the first murder.

Brahms and Simon

In Robert’s Books and other reading around the world, published by Godage & Bros a few years back, I mentioned the first of these and also what then entertained me most, when I read these books in his luxurious flat in Chidlom Place in Bangkok, No Bed for Bacon, a romp through the days of Queen Elizabeth. Historical absurdities were their other forte, but in this series, I will confine myself to the three books that feature Quill, and the gloriously dotty Ballet Stroganoff.

It is owned by the impresario Vladimir Stroganoff, whose motley crew includes the once renowned ballerina Arenskaya, who is now his trainer, and the avant garde composer Nicolas Nevajno, who wants anyone, as he meets them, ‘to schange me small scheque’. The dancers are less memorable, except that two of them are the murder victims, both when dancing the title role in ‘Petroushka’. Neither Anton Palook nor Pavel Bunia was especially popular, and Quill was on the point of arresting the latter for the murder of the former when, having put it off at Stroganoff’s request so that he could dance the title role, the suspect was killed in the course of the ballet.

Both before and after the second murder, Quill is confronted with multiple motives, multiple means and multiple opportunities, to cite the formula in the Detective’s Handbook he has studied. Palook for instance had affairs with lots of girls but had recently taken up with the homosexual Pavel, whose lover, his dresser Serge Appelsinne, was profoundly jealous. The young dancers who performed brilliantly in the final performance of Petroushka, with which the novel ends, were also involved, in that Palook had been friendly towards Kasha Ranevsky, making Pavel jealous; and the ballerina Rubinska, involved with Palook, had tried to wean him away from Pavel, an appeal Pavel may have heard, after which she met Palook again just before he died, and he had said he was sick of being chased since his affairs were never lasting.

Preposterous intricacies one might have thought, had I not come across similar exchanges when we hosted the London City Ballet in Sri Lanka in 1985 on a British Council tour. Brahms and Simon simply push everything well over the top, with the characters pursuing their own obsessions without reference to the predilections, let alone the obsessions, of the others, all of which makes for high drama at a cracking pace.

But in dwelling at length on the plot of this first Brahms and Simon novel, I have omitted what perhaps provides the most zest to the plot, the constant bickering between Stroganoff and his orchestra, his efforts to avoid his relentlessly talkative Secretary, the endless stream of catch phrases, such as the Wiskyansoda Stroganoff offers his visitors, only to find there is none, just Russian tea, or the vigilant mothers determined to bag the best roles for their daughters.

Then there is Arenskaya, who flirts with the incredibly handsome Quill, and turns out to have had an affair years back with his boss, the usually grumpy Snarl, who softens surprisingly when he comes to a performance. And her husband, Puthyk, who was not at all jealous it seemed of her having had an affair with Palook, reminisces endlessly of his own wonderful performances in the past, though now at most he can only be used in crowd scenes.

Quill – and the ubiquitous press – meanwhile discover that a third Petroushka had died while playing the role, in Paris, before the two deaths in London. He had been found dead in his dressing room, and suicide had been the verdict, but now it was assumed that he too had been murdered, and there was thought to be a jinx on anyone dancing the title role. But Stroganoff was determined to go ahead with the gala performance he had planned, for which he hoped Benois, who had been involved in the original production with Njinsky, would come.

Though it was increasingly clear Benois would not appear, with tickets selling like hot cakes, in anticipation of a death, there was no way Stroganoff would cancel the performance. And his great rival Lord Buttonhooke, the newspaper proprietor, who it was rumoured wanted to start a ballet and had persuaded Palook to come over to him, had headlines about another murder all ready as the curtain rose.

Rubinskaya had earlier begged Quill to arrest Ranevsky, who was to dance the roll, as the only way of saving him, but there is no reason to do this, and so the performance does happen, with inspired performances by both of them. And, so, the murderer, who could not bear to have the role traduced, refrains from killing Ranevsky, and confesses to the earlier crimes. ‘Lord Buttonhooke strode from the theatre, a disappointed man’.

But that is not the end, for there is an epilogue in which Stroganoff writes to Quill to plead for kindness to ‘not an assassin, but an artist, that you have put in that pretty home in Sussex’. The letter has other elements that take up themes from the book, such as a new ballet by Nevajno, with ‘a scene where the corps de ballet is shot with a machine-gun. London will be shaken.’ And he will not tell Kasha and Rubinska that they dance better every day ‘lest their mother ask for bigger contracts’.

It was no wonder that the book was a triumph. The ballet scenes, if brilliantly exaggerated, did create a sense of how such spectacles were created, the murder mystery was full of suspense with the two deaths – and the discovery of another, treated earlier as suicide – well paced, and the climax when the ballet ends without another murder was gripping.

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Mysterious Death of United Nations Secretary General Hammarskjöld

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Wrekage

LEST WE FORGET – IV

Dag Hjalmar Agne Carl Hammarskjöld

(‘DH’ for short) was appointed Secretary-General of the United Nations in April 1953, when he was 47 years old. He was a member of an aristocratic Swedish family, a diplomat and reformer, in whom the Western world and United States of America had faith to do the ‘right’ thing. His mission was to prevent minor skirmishes among countries from escalating into a third World War. In short, his role was to implement the UN Charter (Peace, Security, Development and Human Rights).

The Korean War was just ending, and the Cuban situation (1956 to 1958) occurred during his watch. The Vietnam North/South conflict had also commenced in 1955. So did the Suez crisis in 1956. By 1960 another crisis had occurred in the Congo. He applied himself with religious zeal, sometimes trusting his conscience, judgement and personal commitment to maintain the UN’s integrity during the Cold War. As a result, he was not too popular with the US, the UK and Russia, which at one point wanted him to resign. By now DH was serving a second term as Secretary-General.

In the Congo, mineral-rich Katanga province wanted self-rule with Moïse Tshombe as its head, while highly paid white mercenaries (dogs of war?) ran his military. Thus, with this situation creating a civil war, things were going from bad to worse. By now UN troops were fully involved in ‘peace keeping’ in the Congo. DH had made three trips to Congo before, and his fourth trip, on September 13, 1961, was to include a visit to Katanga for a meeting with Tshombe in the hope of negotiating for peace. His first destination was Leopoldville, now known as Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). There, he spent about four days before flying to Ndola in Northern Rhodesia, the country now known as Zambia. Ndola was situated at the Katanga border.

The flight took off from Leopoldville shortly after 3 pm on September 17. For security reasons, the flight was initially planned for another destination, then diverted to Ndola. The aircraft was a four-engine Douglas DC-6B, with ‘Aramco’ markings, Swedish registration SE-BDY, and named Albertina. With DH there were 15 other passengers and crew on board.

It was midnight when the aircraft overflew the Ndola airport, tracking towards a ground-based Non-Directional radio beacon (NDB) in the vicinity. To observers on the ground, everything about the aircraft looked ‘normal’. This was 1961, and it was still not mandatory to have a Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) – collectively known as the ‘Black Box’ – installed onboard. The air traffic control tower had neither radar nor voice-recording facilities.

The navigational equipment on the DC-6 was primitive by today’s standards. A needle over a compass dial in the Automatic Direction Finder (ADF) pointed to the beacon which was located close to the final approach. The ‘modus operandi’ was to fly past the beacon (which is at a known position relative to the airport). Pilots know they have flown past the beacon when the ADF needle swings around from pointing toward the nose of the aircraft to the tail. From overhead that Ndola NDB the aircraft is expected to fly on a heading of 280 degrees for 30 seconds, then carry out a course reversal, known as a ‘procedure turn’, offset to the right at 45 degrees (heading of 325 degrees) and flown for precisely 60 seconds, after which another turn is made to the reciprocal direction, in this case 145 degrees, back to intercept the extended centreline of the runway, with a bearing of 100 degrees to the NDB and the runway beyond. All this while descending to a minimum altitude of 5,000ft, as dictated by a landing chart for the airfield approved by the operating airline and local civil aviation authority. (See Chart 1 and 2)

In Chart 1, the significant high ground is only indicated to the north and south of the runway. There is no significant high ground to the west. Because pilots don’t know the exact distance from the airport, an acceptable technique used was ‘dive and drive’. Consequently, Albertina flew over Ndola at 6,000 ft or lower, and when turning ‘beacon inbound’ the pilots asked for a lower altitude of 5,000 ft to descend and maintain. While on descent, the DC-6 impacted unmarked high ground at 13 minutes past midnight, when only 9 miles from the airport.

Meanwhile in Ndola, a welcoming party awaited, consisting of Lord Alport, British High Commissioner to the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland, Moïse Tshombe, the Katangese separatist leader, who had been brought in from Congo for talks with DH, and many others. They waited at the airport until shortly after 3 am, when the runway was closed and landing lights were turned off. Strangely, the air traffic control staff in the tower did not observe fire or noise of the crash and assumed that the aircraft had diverted to another airport. (See Image Wreckage)

The impact with trees occurred at a height of 4,357 ft above sea level, slightly left of the extended centreline of the runway. The aircraft should have been at least at 5,000 ft above sea level, as required by the approved landing chart. Significant high ground west of the airfield was not indicated in that chart.

The wreckage was found later in the afternoon of September 18, in the jungle, with over 80% of the airplane destroyed by fire. Although 14 passengers and crew were burnt beyond recognition, one bodyguard, Sergeant Harold Julien, survived for six days before dying in hospital. DH’s unburnt dead body was discovered with grass on his hands, propped up by an anthill and a playing card, the Ace of Spades, under his collar! The first UN officer to arrive at the crash site, Major General Bjørn Egge, a Norwegian, observed that there was a clean bullet hole in DH’s head that was covered up during the postmortem. So, did DH survive the crash to be killed afterward?

In the 24 hours preceding the crash, two of the three crew members had been on duty continuously for 17 hours, while the handling pilot’s duty time was within limits. The Rhodesian accident investigation team that conducted the inquiry declared it was ‘pilot error’. The following day, former US President Harry Truman, who was a confidant of incumbent President John F. Kennedy said that “Hammarskjöld had been killed”. Of course, pilot error was the most convenient explanation, because dead men cannot defend themselves. Therefore, those findings were disputed as there can be reasons why the pilots were forced to fly low. In other words, the cause behind the cause needed to be found.

In one of two UN-authorised inquiries, the UN’s Deputy Spokesperson, Farhan Haq, said that “significant new information” had been submitted to the inquiry for this latest update. This included probable intercepts by the UN member states, of communications related to the crash; the capacity of Katanga’s armed forces, or others, to mount an attack on the DC-6, SE-BDY; and the involvement of foreign paramilitary or intelligence personnel in the area at the time. It also included additional new information relevant to the context and surrounding events of 1961.

Additionally, in 1998 Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Chairman of South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC), stated that with regards to DH’s death in 1961, Britain’s MI5 (Military Intelligence, Section 5), the USA’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and South African Intelligence were implicated in letters where information was withheld before by member nations of the UN.

One possibility was the planting of plastic explosives in the wheel bay of the DC-6 when it was on the ground in Leopoldville. Pieces of wreckage were not spread out over the jungle. The aircraft crashed in one piece, creating a swathe in the treeline. So, it could not have been an explosion.

Many Congolese natives, including ‘charcoal burners’ in the jungle, said that there was more than one aircraft in the sky that night. These reports were dismissed as unreliable by the original accident inquiry. It was possibly because in 1961 the Rhodesian authorities only accepted ‘white’ witnesses’ evidence. So, was the DC-6 shot down, and if so by whom?

A High Frequency (HF) radio listening station in Cyprus monitored a transmission of a highly decorated, ex-Royal Air Force World War II pilot, operating in the Congo as a mercenary with the nickname ‘Lone Ranger’, giving a running commentary while shooting a large passenger aircraft from his modified Fouga CM.170 Magister two-seat jet trainer airplane. The pilot, Jan Van Risseghem (from a Belgian father and English mother), may not have known whose aircraft he was shooting at. He was only told of the mission he needed to accomplish. Besides, he had a strong alibi set up by the Belgian State Security Service (VSSE), saying that he was nowhere in the vicinity. Documents released later confirmed that the alibi was pure fabrication. It is also said that the American Ambassador to the Congo sent a secret cable saying that Van Risseghem was the possible ‘attacker’! (See Images Jan Van and KAT 93)

Harold Julien, the sole survivor of the crash, stated from his hospital bed that the aircraft caught fire before it crashed. But his evidence was disregarded on the grounds that he was seriously ill and delirious before he succumbed to his injuries.

Then, Land Rovers being driven to and fro were observed by natives in the early morning of September 18. This led to speculation that the occupants were suspected French mercenaries attempting to reach the crash site and destroy any evidence of foul play before the official party arrived. Questions were also asked as to how the Ace of Spades (or Six of Spades) playing card ended up under DH’s collar?

Further reports mentioned a de Havilland Dove aircraft flying in the vicinity of the crash. Was it part of an attempt to bomb the DC-6 from a high altitude?

On the other hand, the DC-6 was making a very difficult approach and landing at night, with the possibility for pilots to be distracted by optical illusions. These have been identified and labeled as potential killers by scientists and aviation accident investigators in subsequent crashes. With no lights in the foreground, they would have lost sight of the natural horizon in the dark. Years later, this phenomenon was called a ‘Black Hole’. Did the captain attempt to do a visual approach into uncharted territory, while disregarding the radio navigational beacon landing aid, and collide into high ground, a type of accident described as a Controlled Flight into Terrain (CFIT)?

The verdict is still open

Today’s airliners, equipped with Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) and satellite-aided Global Positioning Systems (GPS), can be set up by the pilots to fly an Artificial Intelligence (AI) generated approach angle, independent of ground navigational facilities, to prevent this type of CFIT accident. Besides that, all turbine-powered aircraft carrying more than nine passengers must be equipped with a Ground Proximity Warning System (GPWS) as mandated by law.

Going even one better, there are enhanced radar displays to show the presence of high ground. Unfortunately, the DC-6 that the Secretary-General of the UN travelled in was powered by four piston engines.

It was said of Dag Hammarskjöld that he served as Secretary-General of the UN with the utmost courage and integrity from 1953 until his death in 1961, setting standards against which his successors continue to be measured.

He is the only Nobel Peace Prize Laureate to have been awarded the distinction posthumously.

God bless all secret service agencies of the world and no one else!

by GUWAN SEEYA

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Putting people back into ‘development’ – a challenge for South

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In need of swift empowerment; working people of Sri Lanka.

Should Sri Lanka consider an 18th IMF programme? Some academicians exploring Sri Lanka’s development prospects in depth are raising this issue. It is yet to emerge as a hot topic among policy and decision-making circles in this country but common sense would sooner rather than later dictate that it be taken up for discussion by the wider public and a decision arrived at.

The issue of an 18th IMF programme was raised with some urgency locally by none other than Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja,Visiting Senior Fellow, ODI Global London, one of whose presentations, made at the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, was highlighted in this column last week, May 7th. An IMF programme is far from the ideal way out for a bankrupt country such as Sri Lanka but a policy of economic pragmatism would indicate that there is no other way out for Sri Lanka. Such a programme is the proverbial ‘Bird in the hand’ for Sri Lanka and it may be compelled to avail of it to get itself out of the morass of economic failures it is bogged down in currently.

While local economic growth possibilities are far from encouraging at present, such prospects globally are far from bright as well. Some of the more thought-provoking data in the latter regard were disclosed by Dr. Wignaraja. For example, ‘The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook projects global growth slowing to 3.1 percent in 2026; with downside risks dominating: prolonged conflict, geopolitical fragmentation, renewed trade tensions, bearing down hardest on emergent and developing economies.’

However, as is known, an ‘IMF bailout’ is fraught with huge risks for the people of a developing country. ‘The Silver Bullet’ brings hardships for the people usually and they would be required by their governments to increasingly ‘tighten their belts’ and brace for perhaps indefinite material hardships and discontent. For Sri Lanka, the cost of living is unsettlingly high and 20 percent of the population is languishing below the poverty line of $ 3.65 per day.

These statistics should help put the spotlight on the people of a country, who are theoretically the subjects and beneficiaries of development, and one of the main reasons, in so far as democracies are concerned, for the existence of governments. Placing people at the centre of the development process is urgently needed in the global South and shifting the focus to other considerations would be tantamount to governments dabbling in misplaced priorities.

Technocrats are needed for the propelling of economic growth but a Southern country’s main approach to development cannot be entirely technocratic in nature. The well being of the people and how it is affected by such growth strategies need to be prime focuses in discussions on development. Accordingly, discourses on how poverty alleviation could be facilitated need urgent initiation and perpetuation. There is no getting away from people’s empowerment.

In the South over the decades, the above themes have been, more or less, allowed to lapse in discussions on development. With economic liberalization and ‘market economics’ being allowed to eclipse development, correctly understood, people’s well being could be said to have been downplayed by Southern governments.

The development issues of Southern publics could be also said to have been compounded over the years as a result of the hemisphere lacking a single and effective ‘voice’ that could consistently and forcefully take up its questions with the global powers and institutions that matter. That is, the South lacks an all-embracing, umbrella organization that could bring together and muster the collective will of the South and work towards the realization of its best interests.

This columnist has time and again brought up the need for concerned Southern sections to explore the potential within the now virtually moribund Non-Aligned Movement to reactivate itself and fill the above lacuna in the South’s organizational and mobilization capability. In its heyday NAM not only possessed this institutional capability but had ample ‘voice power’ in the form of its founding fathers, with Jawaharlal Nehru of India, for example, proving a power to reckon with in this regard. The lack of such leaders at present needs to be factored in as well as accounting for the South’s lack of power and presence in the deliberative forums of the world that have a bearing on the hemisphere’s well being.

The Executive Director of the RCSS, Ambassador (Retd) Ravinatha Aryasinha, articulated some interesting thoughts on the above and related questions at a forum a couple of months back. Speaking at the launching of the book authored by Prof. Gamini Keerewella titled, ‘Reimagining International Relations from a Global South Perspective’, at the Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies, Colombo, Amb. Aryasinha said, among other things: ‘Historically, there is a precedent that has been realized by the Non-Aligned group of countries – unfortunately, rather than being reformed and modified at the end of the Cold War, it has been tossed away.’

The inability of the nominally existent NAM to come out of its state of veritable paralysis and voice and act in the name of the South in the current international crises lends credence to the view that the organization has allowed itself to be ‘tossed away.’ The challenge before NAM is to prove that it is by no means a spent force.

As indicated, NAM needs vibrant voices that could advocate value-based advancement for the global South. Moral principles need to triumph over Realpolitik. Such transformative changes could come to pass if there is a fresh meeting of enlightened minds within the South. Pakistan by offering to mediate in the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, for instance, proved that there are still states within the South that could look beyond narrow self-interest and work towards some collective goals. Hopefully, Pakistan’s example will be emulated.

Along with Pakistan some Gulf states have shown willingness to work towards a de-escalation of the present hostilities in West Asia. This could be a beginning for the undertaking of more ambitious, collective projects by the South that have as their goals political solutions to current international crises. These developments prove that the South is not bereft of visionary thinking that could lay the basis for a measure of world peace. That is, there are grounds to be hopeful.

NAM needs to see it as its responsibility to make good use of these hopeful signs to bring the South together once again and work towards the realization of its founding principles, such as initiating value-based international politics and laying the basis for the collective economic betterment of Southern people.

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