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Japanese Digital Television Project: An informed choice?

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Map of Digitisation of Television World wide

by Shanthilal Nanayakkara

Retired Principal Engineer, Digital Transition Division, Australian Communications and Media Authority

A Japanese delegation recently announced the resumption of the previously stalled digital television project in Sri Lanka following a meeting with the newly-elected President Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The commencement of the digitisation project is now imminent.

Once terrestrial television transmissions are digitised in Sri Lanka, it will replace the old analogue terrestrial television forever. Therefore, it is critically important that the final outcome is better than the current analogue television, if not far superior. Setting such a goal prior to the implementation of the project is crucial for its fruitful completion.

To achieve this outcome, deficiencies in the current parameters in the Japanese Digital Plans need to be revisited and appropriately addressed for the benefit of all stakeholders. Otherwise, as it stands today, there is a high potential for rural and regional viewers in Sri Lanka to miss out on the digital coverage. (This is further illustrated below). Such an unwarranted outcome could become a highly ‘politically sensitive’ issue for the new government .

Why Digital

In analogue transmissions, radio waves encounter several problems. When radio waves are subjected to multipath, ghosting images appear on television screen. They are also subjected to cancellation of their own signals and interference.

Digital technology overcomes these analogue transmission weaknesses and, as a huge value addition, is able to carry more information than its analogue counterpart. As this capacity enhancement feature helps carry multiple programmes on one frequency or channel, digital television transmission technology is considered to be highly spectrum productive. Once analogue is switched off, the vacant spectrum that can be harnessed, commonly known as Digital Dividend (DD), becomes an income earner for the Government, as spare spectrum can be sold to Telcos for broadband internet use. Thus, this digitisation project is effectively a self-financing venture for the government and a win-win for all stakeholders.

Stakeholder benefits of digital

Many countries in the world have now moved or are in the process of moving to the digital domain.

Irrespective of the digital television transmission standard adopted in Sri Lanka, benefits of a conversion from analogue to digital television are many for the majority of stakeholders.

These are listed below against the various stakeholders:

*  Government – a significant income from selling the vacant spare spectrum to Telcos, following full conversion to digital, provided appropriate modifications are made to the JICA plan;

*  Broadcasters – increased television channels and scope for increase of advertising revenue;

*  Viewers – increased number of television channels to facilitate a wider selection of content, with True High Definition (True HD) quality and potential 5.1 Surround Sound;

*  Content providers – opportunity to produce a wide range of programmes that are in demand;

*  Production houses – larger revenue from vastly increased niche productions;

*  Creators of social media and other internet-based content – opportunities to develop novel visual and aural media content;

*  Electronic Manufacturing/Testing – opportunities to manufacture digital television receivers and set up a receiver harmonisation/compatibility centre;

*  Broadcast Towers (similar to Lotus Tower) – Opportunities to establish and operate consolidated broadcast towers in the country;

*  Telcos- opportunity to purchase superior vacant spectrum for future fixed and mobile broadband applications.

Funding arrangements or self-financing

The current funding arrangement for digitisation of television in Sri Lanka is a ‘soft loan’ from the Japanese government, and it is tied up in ‘one bundle’ with loans for other projects. This loan is also based on the premise that the deployment of the Japanese digital television standard, Integrated Services Digital Broadcasting-Terrestrial (ISDB-T) is mandatory. As the vacant spectrum can be sold after Analogue Switch Off (ASO), the venture could also be a self-financing project, albeit with bridging finance.

Purpose of this essay

The main purpose of this article is to suggest ways of optimising the benefits of the digitisation project while retaining the support of the Japanese government. If the bulk of problems for viewers and broadcasters can be removed by making appropriate adjustments to the current plans at a minimal cost, with broadcasters becoming willing participants, the digitisation of television in Sri Lanka would no doubt be a success for all stakeholders, including the new government. Otherwise, there is an urgent need to review the bi-lateral agreement that was signed previously.

The broadcasting fraternity in Sri Lanka is fully aware that the Japanese system is not as efficient as the second generation European standard, Digital Video Broadcast-Terrestrial 2 (DVB-T2).

Understanding Digital

Simply put, digitisation of analogue vision and sound enables radio waves to carry more information within the same channel or bandwidth than in the analogue era. This allows producers of visual and aural content to be more creative than before. The technology also facilitates easy communication in both fixed and mobile environments and facilitates two-way communication more than in the analogue era. However, there are two main pitfalls that one needs to address in order to make the venture a success. They are as follows:

Cliff effect (sudden loss of signal): –

* to avoid the ‘cliff effect’ a robust signal (with higher reliability and availability at a receive location than in analogue era) is needed at the receiver to prevent momentary picture pixelation and/or sudden loss of signal; and

* it is also necessary to ensure that all television digital services reaching viewer locations are of the same signal strength to ensure equity of services and therefore must originate from ONE location such as the Lotus Tower.

* Absence of ‘graceful degradation’ and its effect on signal level – even with a degraded signal with ‘snowy pictures’, analogue signal is still watchable. It is not so with digital due to ‘cliff effect’. Therefore, there is a need to ensure that the digital coverage is the same or better than the existing watchable analogue coverage that is defined by a signal level of 43 dBuV/m in VHF Band III.

This limit was adopted for digitisation in Australia.

Deficiencies of the Japanese standard/plan

In planning to deploy the ISDB-T system in our country, everyone should aim for a cost-beneficial outcome as it is of paramount importance to all stakeholders. There are several issues in the Japanese documentation of 2014/2018, which should be addressed to suit the needs of the public/consumers, broadcasters and government. They range from policy issues at the outset, technical areas during planning and management issues during the proposed phases of ASO and Digital Switch On (DSO).

Spectrum for Digital: VHF/UHF issue

In particular, the proposal to use only a part of the available broadcast spectrum has an impact on the eventual DD income for the Government. The Japanese have deployed both VHF and UHF spectrum in Brazil, strangely not offered to Sri Lanka. In that context, it is not clear why the Japanese team has not proposed a VHF and UHF combined solution as deployed in Brazil. This was pointed out by the writer when a Japanese team, including a senior Embassy official Sato Takefumi, met him in 2017 in Colombo to discuss Lotus Tower issues (after his disclosure in an article in The Island about the Lotus tower) and digitisation in general. Their response was ‘no one asked for it’.

As it stands today in Sri Lanka, analogue television transmissions are based on frequencies using both VHF and UHF Bands, but the proposed Japanese digital conversion is not utilising the VHF Band. In particular, VHF Band III exhibits superior propagation characteristics, while contributing to lower the consumption of electricity by the transmitters. More importantly, VHF radio waves carry longer distances than UHF due to lower propagation losses, are able to travel around obstacles comparatively and therefore VHF is more suitable for wide coverage transmissions.

Currently, the VHF spectrum is occupied by three television broadcasting networks i.e. Rupavahini, ITN and TNL. These networks will lose their inherent wide coverage VHF Band advantage. They also have the additional burden of occupying a digital channel in the UHF spectrum, especially when the earmarked UHF channels for digital are almost at the bottom of the UHF Band V, where propagation losses are higher than in UHF Band IV.

ISDB-T New Coder H.265

It is a known fact that the Japanese ISDB-T standard, in payload capacity terms, is second to the second generation European Standard DVB-T2 that provides 45 Mb/s capacity. However, the Japanese standard can only carry about 1/2 of the European standard per channel at 23 Mb/s. But as the Japanese are now offering to change the content source coder to H.265, they will be able to provide HD at 1080P at a rate of 2-4 Mb/s. This change would now allow all HD TV ready broadcasters to provide True HD content at 1920 x 1080P and possibly can accommodate all television channels in Colombo. But the downside is that the receivers are going to be more complex with the new coder. This may then lead to more expensive ISDB-T receivers or STBs in Sri Lanka.

Vacant VHF Band III

The unused VHF Band III is likely to reduce the DD for the government though the Japanese strategy is to achieve some productivity by the use of single frequency networks in the UHF Band (SFNs-a technique to use the same frequency multiple times to improve spectrum productivity). However, in practice receiving of SFNs is not simplistic as the reception of SFN signals are subject to receiver complexities.

The Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (TRC) may be exclusively reserving the VHF band for future digital radio, but the same band could be co-shared with digital television without any problems. For example, Australia is co-sharing VHF Band III for both digital television and radio without any issues.

Once all analogue transmissions are switched off with the deployment of UHF band per se for digital, the unused VHF Band III spectrum, where 7 MHz bandwidth, 8 VHF Frequency channels exists, will become vacant.

This is clearly a waste of unused spectrum. Additionally, as Restacking [restack is the re-arrangement of frequencies ideally in the two bands of VHF and UHF, to maximise the spectrum productivity] is in the Japanese Plan, additional expenditure on broadcasting infrastructure is also on the cards. Where are the funds coming from?

There is no mention of new funding arrangements for Restacking of the spectrum, and it also raises questions about the STB/Receiver specifications as frequencies may need to change after Restacking.

If some broadcasters are not keen to use ISDB-T, they may canvass for the opportunity to use the vacant VHF Band for the potential deployment of DVB-T2 standard. This MUST be avoided at all costs! If this happens, there will be two digital systems in Sri Lanka. This issue, in particular, could become another potential headache for the government as it is likely to be under heavy pressure from commercial broadcasters to release the vacant VHF Band III for the more efficient DVB-T2. This issue, too, was pointed out by the writer when another Japanese team consisting of a Senior Engineer from Yacheo Engineering along with Sato Takefumi of the Japanese Embassy met him in 2017/2018.

Unless there are plans to use the vacant VHF Band III by Restacking the spectrum, this spectrum specifically allocated for broadcasting would go to waste.

Digital Signal Reliability & Availability

Unlike in the analogue domain, television signal reliability and its availability becomes crucial in digital reception. In the analogue era, television broadcasting service field strength was planned for 50% of the locations and 50% of the time at a receiving height of 10 m. But in digital this becomes 80%-95% of the locations and 90% of the time to ensure reliability and availability of the digital signal. Hence the planned field strength would need to be adjusted to ensure the required reliability and availability at a higher field strength. In Australia, field strength used was 50 dBuV/m for Band IV and 54 dBuV/m for Band V frequencies in a rural environment

However, it is not clear from the published documents of the Japanese plans 2014/2018 whether this issue had been addressed or otherwise. The signal level at 51 dBuV/m identified in the 2018 Japanese documentation is certainly not adequate for a rural grade of service in the UHF Band! It ought to be in the region of 54-74 dBuV/m in the UHF Band V. For example, the Australian Broadcasting Planning Handbook for Digital Television Broadcasting has clearly identified these requirements and provided information on how they were derived.

Duplication Parameter

The potential impact of the proposals for duplication of coverage is illustrated in the diagram. (See Figure 01)

The signal threshold of a planned analogue coverage is 50 dBuV/m for VHF Band III. However, some regional and rural viewers in Sri Lanka are currently receiving watchable analogue signals well below this value. If, as planned by the Japanese studies in 2014, the analogue coverage is converted at the planned cut-off level of 55 dBuV/m, then the majority of regional and rural viewers, who are currently watching the analogue television with no issues, will not be able to receive digital television coverage. This could potentially become a political nightmare for the new government. Therefore, the cut-off signal level, as illustrated above, should be lowered to 43 dBuV/m.

Though Single Frequency Networks (SFNs) are a solution to mitigate this difference in coverage, it is not easy to implement them at the receiver-end due to the variation in receiver profiles of Set-Top-Boxes (STBs) and complexities in receiver SFN signal detection.

The Japanese designers, while being aware of this issue, may have been heavily constrained due to the requirement for spectrum productivity. Most probably, given the limits of the available UHF spectrum for digital and the lower data efficacy of the Japanese ISDB-T standard, this higher limit of duplication may have been proposed by the designers in order to preserve some spectrum productivity.

One Network Operator for Digital

The advent of digital terrestrial television also signifies the end of individual transmission facilities for broadcasters, as several content feeds are carried on one frequency or the channel and the requirement to consolidate all transmissions at one site. A combined digital transmission service provider may, in the future, be an independent entity and the facilities may be offered to the broadcasters on a fee-levying basis, based on a pragmatic business plan. In a future digital broadcasting landscape, the broadcasters will essentially be ‘content’ providers. Perhaps, there ought to be some sort of protection provided to the existing broadcasters in the event new content providers also express a desire to use digital transmissions.

Cost to viewers and broadcasters

All consumer television sets require digital receivers to extract video and audio content from digital transmissions. Therefore, either in-built ISDB-T receivers or compatible STBs are required. For example, there are flat TVs that do not have in-built ISDB-T receivers. The cost of an STB for ISDB-T with H.265 decoders, is likely to be around US $ 50-100, depending on their complexity and economies of scale. If in the event, there is likely to be a Restack of frequencies including the VHF Band, two band STBs or receivers may be needed; one during the first phase and another after the Restack of channels with the ability to tune into the VHF Band. Additionally, at some household locations, there may also be a requirement for new receiver antenna installation to receive VHF/UHF channels. If so, this is also an additional cost to the viewer.

There is also a significant cost to the commercial television broadcasters to provide HD ready studios, Outside Broadcast (OB)/Electronic News Gathering (ENG) equipment, and content feeding arrangements. However, once the commercial television broadcasters elect to use consolidated broadcast towers, analogue era transmission costs would also disappear as their independent transmission networks are no longer needed, in a digital environment. It is noteworthy to highlight that the Japanese financial proposal for digitisation of television is primarily for Rupavahini, and limited to funding the analogue to digital transfer of Rupavahini facilities, including the provision of a True HD studio, OB unit, Transmission equipment and a Central Command centre for the proposed Digital Broadcast Network Operations (DBNO) at the Lotus Tower.

At this stage, there are no signs of any discussions with the broadcasters to develop a ‘road map’ to facilitate the smooth transition from analogue to digital of commercial channels. If Restack is to take place, there is likely to be additional costs but there is no mention of further Japanese funding for Restack of channels either.

As additional costs to the commercial television broadcasters are likely, strategic government policy initiatives to compensate for the additional capital expenditure in a highly competitive market are in order.

Way forward

It is heartening to note that the Japanese plan has now incorporated the more efficient coder in H.265 with an intention to maximise the use of limited payload capacity of an ISDB-T channel, which then will result in providing True HD transmission (1920 x 1080P) for ALL licensed television channels in Colombo.

If Japanese consultants can pay attention to the issues of using VHF Band III, changing receiving the field strength requirements to that of the ITU signal level requirements for UHF and address the duplication parameter issue, then ALL stakeholders including the government and broadcasters will no doubt look forward to the venture of digitisation of television in Sri Lanka.



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Agnotology, ethnicity, and New Year resolutions

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by Geewananda Gunawardana

It is encouraging that the piece on agnotology and ethnicity (The Island December 4, 2024) elicited an erudite discourse (‘Ethnicity and genetics – A non-racial academic response’ and ‘Ethnicity – a synonym for confusion,’ The Island December 11 and 16, 2024, respectively) concluding that ethnic divisions have no biological basis. However, we cannot overlook the fact that humans have an evolutionary tendency to belong to a group, clan, or cult for survival purposes; we are social animals. Not having fangs, claws, venom, or any other protective anatomy, tribalism is the way humans have chosen to defend themselves. Unfortunately, the same evolutionary force makes us blind to the hazards of this habit. Throughout human history, this vulnerability has been exploited by story tellers of all stripes and spots to bring us under their fold and fatten themselves. We Sri Lankans tend to fall for such stories at an alarming rate with grave consequences. That is the focus of agnotology: the investigation of our weakness in believing stories, or the resulting culturally induced ignorance, and its effects on our society. It goes beyond ethnic relations.

One thing must be made clear, there is no point in continuing endless academic discourse and hoping for problems to go away. What is necessary is to find ways to reduce and finally eradicate culturally induced ignorance, or the habit of adhering to baseless, false stories that are harmful or counterproductive, and put them into action.

It is a fact that unlearning is much harder than learning. Therefore, it is best if we can stop learning such baseless, fake stories in the first place. The unpleasant truth is that it can be too late for some segments of society as such stories are deeply engraved in their minds. They will reject the facts, and we have no choice but to look beyond their objections. Therefore, the best remedy is to stop our children from learning culturally inherited myths, beliefs, and practices that disrupt harmony, waste valuable resources, and stop us from joining the 21st century. We must tell them the truth that they are poems, myths, and beliefs, etc., and they should not be accepted as undisputable truths. We must train the younger generation to think critically and have the skill to separate facts from fiction, instead of being blind followers. If the Buddha could say that about his teaching, why cannot we say the same about fabricated stories with hidden agendas?

It is inevitable that there will be a deafening outcry that such actions will ruin our proud culture and heritage. There is absolutely no need to let that happen; we can continue culturally and religiously important activities intelligently if we knew their true meaning and that we are not manipulated by some storyteller for their benefit. We must give our children the facts and train them to make sensible decisions rather than blindly following rituals. Even Buddhism teaches us that following rituals blindly is a barrier to liberation.

We have paid dearly for inflaming ethnic division. Let us not forget that the civil strife had cost the nation more than twice the current debt. Should we continue to spread questionable theories that try to prove one is superior to the other or one arrived before the other and has a larger claim to the land? Is it necessary to impress children by glorifying the battle between Dutugamunu and Elara that happened two thousand three hundred years ago? Or, is it more important to convince them that divided we will continue to wallow in misery?

Let us not forget that whether it is the iron age or the 21st century, the root cause of these evils is the elite that manipulate these stories to their benefit. We managed to sideline the old elite, the establishment, or the aristocracy, but there is a new elite trying to raise its ugly head: the so-called academic elite. Please do not jump to conclusions. There is no need to explain again when elite becomes a dirty word but let us be clear that there is an honourably learned community that provides a valuable service to the country. We value them. It is the fake academics that we must be weary of. Let us admit that it is the cream of the cream that enters our public universities. Whether they exhibit additional letters before or after their names or not, we must bear in mind that they are the smartest lot the country has produced. Whether the country reaps the investment made in them or not is a different issue.

Those who could not get in are not necessarily inferior, it is just that the others did better; and if they can afford it, they continue their education in private institutions here or abroad. Unfortunately, this is where elitism raises its ugly head; we want meritocracy for good reasons, but did everyone get an equal opportunity to collect such merits? We have a habit of giving more weight to foreign degrees, a residue of elite veneration, without verifying the quality of the granting institution or the veracity of their claims. It is no secret that it is possible to buy a degree in some countries. Even worse, I know firsthand an individual who worked as a checkout clerk at a pharmacy chain abroad and paraded as a doctor back at home! However, in this internet age, there is no need to be ignorant, to be gullible and believe their stories; few questions and a quick search of the web can verify their claims, and stop the emergence of a new elite, the bad kind. Let us ask not what letters they have added to their names but ask what they have done or can do to solve problems (my apologies to JFK).

We shamelessly propagate many stories that originated in the iron age without ever questioning their relevance to the 21st century. The ugliest of them is the caste system. We must question the value, or the purpose of following a social stratification system started by nomadic farmers from the central Eurasian Steppes to safeguard their feudal system four thousand years ago. Once again, it was their elite that deceived the humble peasants and took advantage. Imagine starting a similar system by treating descendants of computer programmers differently from those of civil engineers, for example. Force them to have different naming systems, prevent intermarriages, live in segregated enclaves, and assume one is above the other. It is a disgrace that we keep this system and go to the extent of forming separate voting blocks.

Another antiquated practice we hang onto is astrology, which started in Mesopotamia. They used the cyclic movement of celestial bodies as a calendar to plan their agricultural activities. Their geocentric models of the cosmos did not allow them to realise that the seasonal changes are the result of the tilt in earth’s rotational axis and varying distance to the sun. This ignorance made them elevate seasonal changes to acts of divinity. It is true that the gravitational force of the moon causes tides, but how can nuclear furnaces that are light years away impact human lives on earth? Science has yet to discover any such forces or find any evidence that astrological predictions have any basis. There are billions of people who lead healthy successful lives in this world without ever following astrology. Instead of astrology, let us teach the children astronomy, so that they will understand that climate change is not a hoax.

The Age of Reason along with scientific revolution started in the 17th century helped humanity get rid of baseless beliefs and myths that were used by the elite to retain power. Unfortunately, we seem to have missed that revolution and are still trapped in the past. That is no accident either: the elite had done their part to limit our access to knowledge. The underlying reasons that resulted in the widespread tuition business that sells knowledge are good examples. The disparity in the quality of public schools between urban and rural areas is another; do the elite send their children to rural schools? According to one report, over eight hundred rural schools had been closed permanently by 2023. The school dropout rate due to poverty is estimated to be about 30 to 35 percent. Is there any doubt that quality education is only for the elite?

Not only that many practices we engage in have no real value, but they also funnel our precious resources to nefarious activities. Unfortunately, these stories are so deeply engraved in our collective psyche that we do not have the will to challenge them. That is the power of storytelling, and its role in shaping our destiny. This is particularly ironic for one important reason. The goal of the ‘Age of Reason’ and the ancient tradition that most Sri Lankans venerate, protect, and give their lives to preserve have the same goal: understanding the natural world and humanity’s place in it through reason: knowing reality. Unfortunately, instead of following that guidance, we have shrouded that timeless truth we inherited with practices based on beliefs, myths, and mysticism. We have legitimized many primitive practices such as rituals centered on appeasing deities, demons, ghosts, clairvoyant reading, and other numerous spirits bringing them under the umbrella of that venerated tradition and blinding ourselves to truth.

We fail to see that communicable diseases are caused by germs and not by angry spirits, and the absurdity of appeasing higher powers for cures instead of using proven medications. The facts of a simple biological event such as reaching puberty are often buried under rituals; the associated taboos impact females from participation in education and in the work force and, at times, risk their health. The period poverty is discussed in high circles, but does it help the needy? These practices teach our children to leave their destinies at the mercy of mystic superpowers instead of taking control of their lives themselves. There lies the biggest obstacle to prosperity. These are all difficult subjects to deal with, but we must initiate a dialogue on the information gap at a minimum if we must move the country forward.

There are many more practices and beliefs that hamper our progress. Hopefully, we will have the courage and wisdom to have that discussion, someday. Until then, we can do one thing at home: let us tell our children the truth. If our practices have artistic, cultural, and economic values, let us tell them so without wrapping them in mysticism. Let us teach them poems for their literary value but not as historical facts. Let them know that history is written by the victors and often gives the writer’s perspective. Let us teach them the value of rational thinking and help them join the 21st century along with the rest of the world. Let us have no doubt that a prosperous country can be built only on fact-based information that is objective, and not on opinions, beliefs, or assumptions inherited from the dark ages. Let elimination of such culturally acquired ignorance be our new year resolution.

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Cast out 2024 with its evils, and welcome promising 2025

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“The bad news is time flies. The good news is you’re the pilot.”

Cassandra quotes below a poet she never could enjoy – Alfred Lord Tennyson (1809 – 1892). He was 1st Baron Tennyson and Poet Laureate during much of Queen Victoria’s reign. To her he sounds pompous but his Ring Out Wild Bells is a simple poem and she found it apt at this time. Two stanzas of the poem go thus:

Ring out the want, the care, the sin, / the faithless coldness of the times;

Ring out, ring out my mournful rhymes/But ring the fuller minstrel in.

Ring out false pride in place and blood, /The civic slander and the spite;

Ring in the love of truth and right, /Ring in the common love of good

.I am certain you reader will guess the implied meaning Cass has in mind when quoting these lines. Yes and a loud YES; Sri Lanka is ringing out the bad, ugly, mean, corrupt, pompous pride and bloated egos of those who ruled us. The majority of us have hope in our hearts and look forward to an all-round improvement in how the country is governed. We also are sure the new people at the head of government and state are very different from those Big Wigs of this year before October and down the years, who so drastically dragged the country down to the very depths of deprivation and bankruptcy.

Tennyson rings out the want, the care, the sin; the faithless coldness of the times.

Yes, the times of waiting days in queues for essentials is over. Some may remind Cass it was Ranil W, who did away with queues by taking the right economic decisions. Yes, partly, but during his time as Prez he could have done much more to ease the lot of not only the poorer segment of Sri Lanka’s population but all who suffered. And this while 90 odd persons were advising him and running around in luxury cars while we suffered deprivation.

There certainly was ‘faithless coldness’ during times past when decisions were taken to please the very small minority of the rich at the expense of the rest of Sri Lankans. Coldness we associate with Prez Gotabaya and ‘false pride in place and blood’ during the years Mahinda R was Prez with his favoured persons doing just as they please, not caring one jot for those they made to suffer. Cold unconcern. Coldness is attributed to Ranil W. Comes to mind Keheliya Rambukwella and Lohan Ratwatte, the former importing medical drugs that were ineffective or lethal; the latter strutting in prisons at night with a thigh exposing woman friend. The list of crimes is very long.

Tennyson calls for a ringing in of love of truth and right and common love. AKD, Harini, Vijitha Herath and others of the NPP are ringing in truth and honesty; right government ensuring people’s rights; and intending to end the evils of corruption, nepotism, favouritism and family bandyism of concern only for the wellbeing of families.

A sense of empathy and concern for the country and its people by those in power is definitely in the air, which was never present, except as far back as when DS Senanayake, Dudley Senanayake and John Kotelawala were in power. Kotelawela showed concern in his own brusque way. They were not self-centered and we do not expect our new leaders to be this, even to the slightest degree.

Cassandra’s summation on the state of the country and people’s perceptions is optimistic. The country will sure improve and Ministers in the Cabinet will work to improve the country and its people, not themselves. When honesty, commitment and selflessness are apparent in political leaders, lesser ones too will follow. Thus, we could expect bureaucrats who serve the country with honesty and dedication.

Accidents and apparent incompetence

We are glad the Police have taken due note of the far too many road accidents and have started preliminary findings to arrive at the root of the serious trouble. As the Editor of this newspaper commented in his editorial on this subject, common causes of road accidents are incompetent drivers; road unworthy vehicles; buses plying competitively for fares; and drivers and bus conductors addicted to drugs or intoxicating drinks and being at the wheel under either influence. Also, their being over-worked with far too long spells driving. All these can be remedied. Strict supervision of drivers and vehicles; bus owners being law abiding; the Police taking preventive and punishing action; and punishment meted being severe.

Cassandra experienced the crass incompetence and, perhaps, the debilitating influence of drugs on a driver of a motorbike. She was informed by a friend that a parcel was being delivered to her by one of the delivery services now having good business during this season of gift giving. The delivery man was to be expected around 8.30 pm, the friend said. Cass waited till 9.30, her equanimity fast disappearing and her ire rising. She phoned her friend who contacted either the delivery service or the courier. She was promised he would be at her door in 20 minutes. The clock hands showed 10.30 pm. The driver contacted her. She gave him detailed directions to her home, which even an idiot could follow.

No delivery. She phoned the delivery man, thrice. Each time she heard the motorcyclist ask people directions to Cass’ abode and they gave very accurate directions. But the man could not follow them. She called him. He was just a couple of yards away but at a cross roads, which he should never have been in. Directions were given – simple, easy to follow and unambiguous. No man, no parcel. She sent her domestic to the end of the lane leading to her place. Man finally appears at 11.45. Cass was beyond throwing a tantrum and closer to a stroke or heart seizure.

She was sure, though inexperienced in dealing with druggies, that this driver was under the influence of a drug which dulled his senses to near zero. Her Man Friday tells her that young men are recruited from places far distant from Colombo and do not know its roads and streets. No excuse at all. Glaring faults of employers are non-caring and greed for profit at any cost. Fault of employees: sheer incompetence and immorality in being under the influence of drugs or drink while on the job.

This anecdote is to highlight possible-to-be-remedied faults of businesses. Even government offices had don’t-care-less employees. That will change, and sure must already have changed. Thankfully, Prez AKD gave govt employees a strong pep talk: do your job or you will be made to quit.

Cass ends this Friday’s optimistic Cry with wishing each of her readers a very happy New Year with much less burdens to bear and life improving with hope and anticipation. Gratitude to those who govern us can be given again, replacing the disdain and dislike, hate too, felt earlier. A New Year to the country we love so much of increasing prosperity, equal rights to all and peace!

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Navigating the Dragon’s Den: Sri Lanka’s strategic balancing act ahead of President AKD’s visit to China

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by Professor Chanaka Jayawardhena

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is scheduled to embark on a state visit to China early next year, following his recent diplomatic success in India. As Sri Lanka rebuilds from the ashes of an economic meltdown, this visit will serve as a pivotal moment, shaping not just bilateral relations but also the island’s broader economic and geopolitical trajectory. While the allure of Chinese investments may offer short-term relief, the stakes are high: the decisions made during this visit could either cement Sri Lanka’s recovery or deepen its vulnerabilities.

The Economic Promise: Opportunity at the Doorstep

China’s economic might is undeniable. As the world’s second-largest economy and a leading investor in developing nations, China has demonstrated a remarkable ability to deploy vast sums of capital into infrastructure projects and industrial ventures. For Sri Lanka, a nation grappling with limited fiscal space, Chinese investment could unlock opportunities in critical sectors such as energy, transport, and manufacturing.

The Hambantota Port stands as a testament to the scope of Chinese involvement in Sri Lanka. Despite initial controversies, the port has emerged as a strategic hub, offering potential for revenue generation and job creation. However, the same cannot be said for the Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport, often dubbed the “world’s emptiest airport.” While envisioned as a key logistical and passenger hub, the airport has yet to realise its potential, serving as a reminder that infrastructure investments must align with realistic demand projections and comprehensive planning. Addressing this gap should be a priority during discussions with Chinese counterparts, ensuring that such projects contribute meaningfully to Sri Lanka’s economic landscape.

Additionally, enhanced trade relations with China offer significant upside. As Sri Lanka seeks to diversify its export portfolio, targeting China’s vast consumer base could invigorate key industries such as apparel, seafood, and tea. Establishing favourable trade agreements during this visit could pave the way for sustainable economic growth, moving beyond aid and debt reliance.

The Geopolitical Tightrope

The geopolitical stakes for Sri Lanka are both immense and intricate, requiring delicate balancing between its key regional partner, India, and the opportunities presented by China. India remains Sri Lanka’s closest neighbour and has historically shared deep cultural, economic, and security ties with the island nation. India’s contributions during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, including emergency financial aid, are a testament to its enduring commitment. However, India also views any expansion of Chinese influence in Sri Lanka with heightened concern, perceiving it as a potential security threat within its sphere of influence in the Indian Ocean region.

President Dissanayake must walk a fine line during his visit to China, ensuring that the agreements forged do not alienate India or exacerbate regional tensions. While pursuing Chinese investments, Sri Lanka must communicate its intentions transparently to India, emphasising that its engagement with China is rooted in economic pragmatism rather than any geopolitical alignment. Joint initiatives with India, such as collaborations in regional trade and maritime security, can serve as confidence-building measures to assuage Indian apprehensions.

China, on the other hand, presents unparalleled economic opportunities. Investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, and renewable energy could provide Sri Lanka with a much-needed economic boost. However, Sri Lanka’s leadership must remain vigilant to avoid the pitfalls of overdependence on China, as evidenced by the debt crises faced by other nations engaged in the Belt and Road Initiative. The priority must be projects that not only bolster the local economy but also preserve national sovereignty.

To emulate the success of nations like Vietnam, Sri Lanka can adopt a “bamboo foreign policy”—firmly rooted in its national interests yet flexible in adapting to the complexities of great power politics. Vietnam’s ability to maintain economic ties with China while cultivating strategic partnerships with the United States, Japan, and ASEAN countries offers a valuable model. Sri Lanka, too, must engage other global players, ensuring a diversified set of partnerships that prevent over-reliance on any single nation.

Moreover, Sri Lanka’s policymakers must focus on ensuring that the benefits of Chinese investments accrue to Sri Lanka itself, rather than serving external strategic interests. This includes rigorous scrutiny of project proposals, transparent procurement processes, and an unwavering commitment to prioritising projects that yield tangible economic returns for the Sri Lankan people.

The challenge lies in balancing these dynamics while maintaining Sri Lanka’s sovereignty. A comprehensive, long-term vision that places Sri Lanka’s national interests at the forefront is essential. Investments should align with the country’s development goals, fostering economic resilience and reducing external vulnerabilities. Ultimately, the success of this balancing act will determine whether Sri Lanka can emerge as a stable and independent player in the region or remain a pawn in the larger geopolitical chessboard.

Potential Pitfalls: Lessons from the Region

Sri Lanka’s impending engagement with China is fraught with risks, many of which have been experienced by other nations. Laos, for instance, has faced severe debt distress due to over-reliance on Chinese loans for infrastructure projects under the BRI. Similarly, Zambia’s excessive borrowing from China has resulted in contentious renegotiations and fears of asset seizures. These examples underscore the importance of scrutinising loan terms and prioritising projects that deliver tangible economic returns.

Another potential pitfall is the erosion of sovereignty. Nations that over depend on Chinese investments often find themselves compromising on key policy decisions, whether in trade, security, or governance. Sri Lanka’s leadership must ensure that economic agreements do not come at the expense of national autonomy.

Moreover, transparency is critical. Corruption in procurement processes and project implementation has plagued many BRI initiatives, undermining public trust and long-term viability. President Dissanayake’s government, which has earned public confidence for its anti-corruption stance, must maintain rigorous oversight over any agreements signed during this visit.

Charting a Vision for the Future

While the immediate focus of President Dissanayake’s visit will likely centre on securing economic investments, the government must adopt a comprehensive vision that extends beyond short-term gains. This vision should encompass three key pillars:

=Economic Sustainability:

Sri Lanka must prioritise investments that align with its long-term development goals. This includes focusing on renewable energy projects that reduce reliance on fossil fuels, thereby lowering energy costs and improving environmental outcomes. Digital infrastructure development, such as expanding broadband access, can drive innovation and attract high-value industries, while skill development initiatives can prepare Sri Lanka’s workforce for the demands of a modern economy. By diversifying its economic base, Sri Lanka can reduce its vulnerability to global economic shocks and ensure sustainable growth.

=Geopolitical Balance:

As Sri Lanka engages with China, it must simultaneously deepen partnerships with other nations, including India, our immediate neighbours in the SAARC region and the rest of both the western world along with the global south. Strengthening ties with India, its closest neighbour, ensures regional security and cooperation, while partnerships with any country with the means can provide access to alternative sources of investment and technology. A multilateral approach will mitigate the risks of over-dependence on any single nation and enhance Sri Lanka’s global standing. By actively participating in regional forums and initiatives, Sri Lanka can position itself as a bridge between competing powers, leveraging its strategic location to attract diverse opportunities.

=Social Cohesion:

The benefits of Chinese investments must be equitably distributed to avoid exacerbating social inequalities. Infrastructure projects should include components that directly impact local communities, such as job creation and skill development programmes.

Transparent planning and community engagement are essential to ensure that large-scale projects do not displace vulnerable populations or create environmental degradation. By fostering inclusivity and addressing the needs of all segments of society, the government can build public trust and strengthen social stability, which is vital for long-term development.

A Positive Path Forward

President Dissanayake’s forthcoming visit to China represents both a challenge and an opportunity. By adopting a cautious yet ambitious approach, Sri Lanka can harness the economic potential of Chinese investments while safeguarding its sovereignty and geopolitical balance. The lessons from countries like Vietnam, Laos, and Zambia serve as valuable guideposts, highlighting both the promise and perils of engagement with global powers.

Sri Lanka’s recovery journey is far from over, but the foundations for a brighter future are being laid. The government’s ability to navigate this complex landscape with transparency, vision, and pragmatism will determine whether the nation can emerge stronger, more resilient, and truly independent. As the president steps into the dragon’s den, the world will be watching—and so will the people of Sri Lanka.

(Views expressed in this article are personal.)

(The writer is Professor of (Chair) of Marketing, University of Surrey, UK. Linkedin: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/marketingchanaka, Email: Chanaka.j@gmail.com

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