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Iran war threatens Sri Lanka’s fragile recovery; SMEs face “Survival Crisis” – Prof. Rohan de Silva

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Prof. Rohan De Silva President, Sri Lanka Chamber of Small & Medium Industries

Sri Lanka’s already fragile economic recovery—still reeling from the aftermath of the 2019 Sri Lanka Easter Bombings, the pandemic, and the 2022 financial collapse—is now under renewed strain as the ongoing Iran war sends shockwaves through global energy, trade, and financial systems, experts warn.

Chartered Interior Architect and economic commentator Prof. Rohan de Silva cautioned that the Iran conflict is not an isolated external shock but a “multiplier crisis” that could severely undermine Sri Lanka’s recovery trajectory—particularly for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which form the backbone of the economy.

Energy Shock Rekindles Crisis Conditions

At the heart of the emerging pressure is the sharp escalation in global oil prices and supply disruptions linked to instability around the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for global energy flows.

“Sri Lanka, which already spends around USD 4 billion annually on fuel imports, is extremely vulnerable to such shocks,” Prof. de Silva said. “Any disruption in supply chains or price spikes will immediately translate into domestic inflation and reduced economic activity.”

The situation, he noted, could force authorities to revisit emergency measures reminiscent of the 2022 crisis, including fuel rationing, restricted working days, and reduced transport services—directly impacting productivity.

Inflation Surge and Currency Pressures

Rising oil prices are expected to trigger a fresh wave of cost-push inflation, affecting transport, food, and essential goods. Increased war-risk insurance and shipping delays are further inflating import costs, placing additional pressure on the Sri Lankan rupee and already strained foreign reserves.

“The real danger is a re-triggering of balance of payments stress,” Prof. de Silva warned. “Higher fuel import bills, combined with potential declines in remittances from the Middle East and weaker export earnings, could destabilize external accounts once again.”

Sri Lanka’s export sectors are also facing mounting challenges. Tea exports to Iran and Gulf markets risk disruption, while apparel shipments are being delayed due to rerouted shipping lanes and rising freight costs.

“Transit times are increasing by up to two weeks in some cases. That erodes competitiveness and reliability—two key pillars for export markets,” Prof. de Silva explained.

Industrial supply chains are similarly under strain, with delays in raw materials and petroleum-based inputs threatening production continuity across sectors.

However, the most severe impact is being felt by SMEs, which Prof. de Silva described as “financially exhausted after enduring repeated shocks since 2019.”

“These businesses have not fully recovered from the Easter attacks, COVID-19 shutdowns, and the 2022 economic collapse. Now, they are facing a fresh crisis that is simultaneously increasing costs and reducing demand,” he said.

Operating expenses—including fuel, electricity, and logistics—have surged sharply, while constrained transport and reduced working days are limiting both customer access and employee attendance.

“This is a classic margin squeeze. For many SMEs, profits are not just shrinking—they are disappearing,” he added.

Compounding the crisis is tightening access to finance. With interest rates remaining elevated to control inflation, banks are becoming increasingly risk-averse, leaving SMEs struggling to secure working capital.

At the same time, declining household purchasing power is dampening demand, particularly in non-essential sectors such as retail, interior design, and construction-related services.

“Consumers are cutting back. SMEs are losing revenue streams. It’s a dangerous cycle,” Prof. de Silva said.

Export-oriented SMEs are also facing order cancellations and payment delays from Middle Eastern buyers, further squeezing foreign exchange inflows.

Employment and Social Pressures Mount

The SME crisis is already spilling over into the labour market. Businesses are reducing staff, cutting working hours, or halting expansion plans altogether.

“If this trend continues, we could see rising unemployment and underemployment, particularly among youth,” Prof. de Silva warned.

He also highlighted the risk of returning migrant workers due to instability in Gulf economies, which could intensify domestic job market pressures.

A Multi-Shock Economy on Edge

Prof. de Silva stressed that Sri Lanka is now grappling with a cumulative “multi-shock cycle”:

2019 Easter attacks → Tourism collapse

COVID-19 pandemic → Prolonged shutdowns

2022 economic crisis → Currency and fuel collapse

Iran war → External energy, trade, and financial shock

“Each crisis has weakened the resilience of SMEs. What we are seeing now is not recovery, but survival,” he said.

Without targeted intervention, Prof. de Silva warned of widespread SME closures, job losses, and a prolonged delay in national economic recovery.

“The Iran war is amplifying every existing vulnerability in Sri Lanka’s economy. SMEs are at the frontline of this crisis—and without immediate policy support, the consequences could be severe and long-lasting,” he cautioned.

By Ifham Nizam



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ADB delivers rapid support as Middle East impact spreads

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ADB President Masato Kanda (on the right) joins the Nikkei Forum on the future of Asia, in Tokyo on 10th June. The discussion focused heavily on the Middle East conflict and the severe economic uncertainty it is causing across Asia and the Pacific

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is acting quickly and decisively with $4 billion in financing to help countries withstand the impact of the Middle East conflict, including about $3 billion requested by governments and $1 billion provided as trade finance for energy and food imports.

“ADB is acting with speed and scale to support countries experiencing a range of impacts from the Middle East conflict, including pressure on finances, remittances, tourism, and fuel and fertilizer supplies,” said ADB President Masato Kanda. “At this time of acute uncertainty and risk, we are deploying our full suite of crisis response instruments—including budget support, trade finance, and a new mechanism to rapidly repurpose existing portfolio funds—to deliver the tailored and timely support our members, from large to small, need to safeguard their economies and communities.”

ADB has received formal requests for support from 15 affected governments across the region, including previously announced requests from Bangladesh, Fiji, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka. The requests, which follow a financial support package announced by ADB in late March, range in size from $15 million to $1.5 billion and include policy-based loans, countercyclical financing, rapid repurposing of existing sovereign portfolio funds, and emergency assistance loans. ADB is in discussions with an additional 4 countries facing continued impacts on their economies.

In addition to these requests, the Government of India has requested $1.5 billion in ADB financing to build and accelerate resilience and to sustain reform-based urban transformation and clean energy objectives. The proposed assistance includes a $1 billion policy-based loan under the Urban Transformation and Investment Program to sustain momentum in urban infrastructure investment and reforms, and $500 million under the Accelerating Affordable and Inclusive Rooftop Solar Systems Development Program to expand clean energy access, reduce dependence on imported fuels, strengthen domestic manufacturing, install battery energy storage systems, promote circular economy initiatives, and enhance long-term energy security.

Complementing this sovereign assistance, ADB has reactivated support for oil imports under its Trade and Supply Chain Finance Program (TSCFP) on an exceptional basis for a limited period to soften the impact of rising oil prices and supply chain disruptions. Since 1 March, ADB’s TSCFP has delivered $673 million to support oil and gas imports and $390 million for food security across 9 countries, helping maintain access to essential supplies amid global market disruptions. Trade finance support to the Cook Islands is also expected to commence soon as part of ADB’s broader support for vulnerable small island developing states.

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Research highlights need to empower tea smallholders for a climate-resilient future

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A new study by researchers from the University of Sri Jayewardenepura and the Ministry of Irrigation argues that strengthening the knowledge and adaptive capacity of tea smallholders is critical to safeguarding the future of Sri Lanka’s tea industry in the face of climate change.

The study, titled “Enhancing Climate Resilience through Informal Education: The Case of Tea Smallholder Farmers in Sri Lanka,” was authored by Dr. Nuwan Gunarathne, Mahendra Peiris, Thilini Cooray and G.W. Dimalka Perera. It examines the growing challenges confronting tea smallholders and identifies practical measures that can help build a more resilient and sustainable tea sector.

Tea smallholders account for more than 74 percent of Sri Lanka’s total tea production, making them the backbone of one of the country’s most important export industries. However, many farmers are struggling with declining productivity and profitability due to labour shortages, limited technical knowledge, inefficient farming practices and the use of poor-quality agricultural inputs. These long-standing problems are now being exacerbated by climate change.

The researchers note that irregular rainfall patterns, prolonged droughts, rising temperatures and soil degradation are increasingly affecting tea yields and farmer incomes. They also point to inefficiencies in fertiliser use, observing that Sri Lanka currently applies nearly one kilogram of fertiliser to produce one kilogram of made tea, despite actual nutrient replacement requirements being significantly lower. This not only raises production costs but also contributes to environmental degradation.

According to the study, climate-smart agriculture and regenerative farming practices offer practical pathways to address these challenges. Techniques such as rainwater harvesting, micro-irrigation, drought-tolerant crop varieties, improved canopy management and organic soil enhancement can help farmers maintain productivity while reducing dependence on costly chemical inputs. Several locally developed innovations, including herbicide-free integrated weed management, deep envelope forking and stripe spreading of tea bushes, have already demonstrated promising results in improving yields, restoring soil health and enhancing resilience to climate stress.

However, the authors emphasise that technology alone is insufficient. Farmer education and capacity building are equally important.

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Sri Lanka lands a spot in elite Global Actuarial Boot Camp

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Azusa Kubota- Resident Representative, UNDP, Dr. Vagisha Gunasekara -Chief Economist, UNDP, Dr. Ajith De Mel – Chairman, IRCSL, Shyamalie Attanayake- Asst. Director Actuarial, IRCSL, Merideth Randles- Senior Consultant, UNDP-Milliman GAIN, Prechhya Mathema- UNDP-Milliman GAIN, pose for a photograph with distinguished academics and members of AASL .

‘Goodbye to guesswork, hello to hard numbers for a more secure financial future’

Sri Lanka has just secured a coveted seat at a high-powered global table – one where number-crunchers don’t just balance spreadsheets but help save economies from disaster. The country has been selected for the UNDP–Milliman Global Actuarial Initiative (GAIN), a kind of financial “special forces” training programme for developing nations.

When The Island Financial Review told an actuarial expert at a roundtable held at the Kingsbury Colombo on June 12 that it knew little about what an actuary does, this is how she explained it: “Think of actuaries as the fortune-tellers of finance. We use maths, data, and risk models to answer questions like: Will our pension system survive an ageing population? Can insurance handle a flood of climate disasters? For too long, Sri Lanka has lacked enough of these experts. GAIN aims to fix that.”

When asked to elaborate, she continued: “The initiative, a brainchild of the UN Development Programme and Milliman Inc., a global actuarial heavyweight, was launched in 2022 at the UN General Assembly. Since then, it has spread to 16 countries, mobilised over 185 Milliman volunteers, and delivered more than 32,000 hours of pro-bono brainpower – meaning, free expert insights. Now, it’s Sri Lanka’s turn.”

From 8–12 June 2026, Milliman ambassadors were on the ground, huddling with everyone from the Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Insurance Association to universities, chartered accountants, and local insurers. Their mission was to diagnose the country’s actuarial strengths and weaknesses – and then build a battle plan.

That plan takes the form of the Sri Lanka Actuarial Capacity Roadmap (2026–2028). It will spell out how to plug skills gaps, boost professional training, and apply actuarial smarts to national priorities like social protection and disaster risk financing.

As part of the programme, a two-day professionalism boot camp was delivered to members of the Actuarial Association of Sri Lanka (AASL) – the island’s official actuarial body, recognised by regulators in 2024.

The mission wrapped on 12 June with a stakeholder workshop to refine the roadmap, to which the financial media had also been invited to spread the word about the little-known but key number-crunchers. The core responsibility of actuaries is to ensure a future where Sri Lanka doesn’t just react to crises but calculates their odds – and beats them.

“This isn’t just about maths,” another AASL member told The Island Financial Review. “It’s about economic resilience, financial security, and sustainable development, powered by people who can see the future in a formula.”

The event reflected the need for a clear policy-level commitment to strengthening actuarial studies in Sri Lanka at national level, rather than allowing a handful of gifted math brains to go abroad and struggle through costly, self-funded qualifications to become actuarial experts.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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