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In Sri Lanka’s own interests

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by Neville Ladduwahetty

India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar during his recently concluded visit to Sri Lanka is reported to have stated at a Joint Press Conference that ‘It was in Sri Lanka’s own interest that expectations of the Tamil people for equality, justice, peace and dignity within a united Sri Lanka should be fulfilled and Delhi insists on the importance of the 13th Amendment in fulfilling those expectations’ (The Island, January 7, 2021).

Assuming the accuracy of the reported statement, its content has significant implications on the State and Nation of Sri Lanka.   For instance, why are expectations for “equality, justice, peace and dignity” limited only to the Tamil people?   If that is the case, by implication it must mean that all other citizens of Sri Lanka other than the Tamil community do not have similar expectations because they already enjoy equality, justice, peace and dignity in Sri Lanka.   This is a factually skewed assessment on the part of Dr. Jaishankar, because he must surely know that citizens in all countries throughout the world, including Sri Lanka, regardless of which community they belong to, and/or whether they are majorities or minorities, experience inequality, injustice and lack of peace and dignity in one form or another and that India is no exception.   Therefore, what is so exceptional about the Tamil community?   

By insisting on the importance of the 13th Amendment in fulfilling expectations of the Sri Lankan Tamil community, Dr. Jaishankar has underscored the link between the 13th Amendment and the expectations.   However, since the 13th Amendments impacts only on the smaller portion of the Tamil community living in the Northern and Eastern provinces, the fulfilment of expectations would be limited only to them.   What about the expectations of the larger portion of the Tamil community living outside the Northern and Eastern provinces along with the rest of the communities in Sri Lanka?   For India to be concerned only with this smaller proportion of the Tamil community and not with the decidedly larger portion of the Sri Lankan citizenry has the potential to endanger India’s interests in Sri Lanka from a geostrategic perspective.           

Furthermore, when Dr. Jaishankar states that it is in Sri Lanka’s own interest to ensure that the expectations for equality, justice, peace and dignity within a “UNITED Sri Lanka”, he as India’s Minister for Foreign Affairs has added a new amendment to the 13th Amendment that impacts on the hallowed unitary structure of the Sri Lankan State.   When the 13th Amendment was introduced in 1987, Sri Lanka was unitary and remains so today.   To state that the precondition for the fulfilment of expectations of the Tamil people requires the structure of the Sri Lankan State to be changed from being unitary to one that is “united” amounts to naked interference in the internal affairs of the Sri Lankan State in violation of the principles of the Non-Aligned Movement in which India was a founding member.   If this is how India’s policy of “neighborhood first” manifests, the neighborhood, and in particular Sri Lanka, should be more circumspect in its dealings with India than it had been in the past. 
 

THE “NEIGHBOURHOOD FIRST” POLICY
 

When Dr. Jaishankar says that it is Sri Lanka’s own interest to fulfill the expectations of the Tamil community, he, as the foremost spokesperson for India, is washing India’s hands off of any responsibility for orchestrating a forced intervention and imposing a system of governance under the 13th Amendment, that is totally unsuitable for Sri Lanka.   The net effect of the legacy left behind is a frustrated Sri Lankan nation, struggling to make the best of an inappropriate system of governance. 

Is Sri Lanka in a position to introduce a system of governance that serves all communities better?  According to comments made by former president Sirisena, the answer is NO.   During the course of a recent interview, he stated: “The 13th Amendment is a product of the Indo-Lanka Accord of 1987.   The Provincial Council Act is a product of the 13th Amendment.   So I know that it is not so easy to abolish provincial councils…. Abolishing provincial councils is like playing with fire” (The Island, January 2, 2021).

This is the trap Sri Lanka finds itself in.   This trap and the manner in which it was set by India, did not deter India from engaging in acts that violated the very principles it subscribed to and expected others to live by, despite being an influential founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement with the principles:
 

  • Mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty
  • Mutual non-aggression
  • Mutual non-interference in domestic affairs
  • Equality and mutual benefit
  • Peaceful co-existence. 

Today India is not encumbered by inconvenient principles.   India is now a key member of the QUAD with the U.S., Japan and Australia.    Until the recent visit all leaders of India including Prime Minister Modi who visited Sri Lanka advised Sri Lanka to implement the 13th Amendment.   For the first time, what is being “insisted” upon is not only the implementation of the 13th Amendment, but also that it should be within a “UNITED” Sri Lanka.  
 

These expressions reflect the new India backed up by the new relationships of the QUAD.   Blinded by the backing of the new relationship, India would not want to be seen by its partners in the QUAD as being weak by admitting that its experiment in Sri Lanka has failed.   Therefore, they are bound to keep on pressuring Sri Lanka with proposals how to make devolution more meaningful.  In such a background attempting to transform current arrangements would be met with such resistance that it may amount to “playing with fire”. 
 

Continued attempts to make provincial councils under the 13th Amendment work is not in keeping with India’s policy of “Neighbourhood First” because the 13th Amendment is strictly meant to fulfill the expectations of only the Tamil community in the Northern and Eastern Provinces.  It does not constitute the neighbourhood of India.   Since it is in India’s own geostrategic interests to cultivate the neighbourhood, India has to cater to the interests of the larger segment of the Sri Lankan nation which for all intents and purposes constitutes the real neighbourhood as recognized by other sovereign States.  
 

What India is yet to realize and admit is that the 13th Amendment has not served the people of any community whether they be Tamil, Sinhala, Muslim or any other, because of the fundamental unsuitability of the structural arrangement imposed on Sri Lanka by India.   This fact was confirmed by former President Sirisena in the interview referred to above.   He stated: “the 30-year experience of running provincial councils has not yielded desired results in terms of developing all parts of the country”.   According to him: “From a development perspective, I think a set up at the district level like a District Development board would work better than provincial councils given the fact that we are a small country”.
 

Realistic pragmatism requires that India rethinks its priorities because its current emphasis does not amount to its stated policy of “neighbourhood first”.   Instead, the current policy as far as the 13th Amendment in Sri Lanka is concerned amounts to “India First”, in the neighbourhood. 

DENIAL of RIGHTS to DEVELOPMENT
 

There is a consensus in Sri Lanka that the provincial council system is an unsuitable mechanism to address the needs of the people.   Despite this realization successive Sri Lankan governments have failed to present a formal statement to the leadership of India that because of the unsuitability of the existing provincial council system, Sri Lanka needs to develop an alternative.   If India is opposed to an alternative that suits Sri Lanka, India should be informed that Sri Lanka would be engaging in an exercise to find an alternative, because what is at stake is the denial of a right to human development of millions in Sri Lanka brought about by India’s intervention in the internal affairs of a sovereign State that introduced a system of governance that does not serve the interests of people in Sri Lanka.  
 

Having so stated, Sri Lanka should set up a mechanism to develop an alternative to provincial councils with a mandate to develop a proposal to ensure the delivery of goods and services to all communities in the periphery independent of all parochial political and other considerations.   Such an alternative should be based on inputs from the people in the periphery, and definitely not on inputs from the political leaders of all hues as has been in the past.   Furthermore, such a proposal should have the flexibility to function whether the arrangement at the center is Parliamentary, or Presidential.   
         

Hoping that the framers of the new constitution would give the needed attention to develop an alternative to the existing provincial council system together with other weighty and controversial issues, is not only to complicate the daunting task of constitution making but also to rob the attention the alternative should deserve.   Therefore, since the exercise of developing a system to ensure that those at the periphery are served requires the engagement of persons with skills and experience of a sort that is different to those conversant with constitutions and how governments function, the task of developing an alternative to provincial councils should be carried out independently.
 

India must surely be aware that the provincial council system introduced under the 13th Amendment has failed to fulfill intended expectations.   Despite this for India to continue to insist that the 13th Amendment is implemented by every visiting dignitary is being disingenuous to a neighbor, under a policy of “neighbourhood first”.  Since the insistence on the 13th Amendment denies the fundamental right to human development of millions in Sri Lanka, India must he held accountable and responsible for their fate.       
    

IN INDIA’S OWN INTEREST       
     

India’s stated policy is “Neighbourhood First”.   Explaining the concept, Amb. (Retd) V.P. Haran at the Central University of Tamil Nadu stated: “Policy of Govt. of India towards neighbors is encapsulated in the phrase, ‘Neighbors First’. This policy priority holds true for almost every country in the world. For, anything that happens in one country will affect the other countries in the neighborhood.   Former PM Dr. Manmohan Singh once said, ‘the real test of foreign policy is in the handling of neighbors’. We often hear political leaders say that India wants a peaceful, prosperous and stable neighborhood.  Reason is simple.  This means less trouble for us and will enable us to focus on development, without distraction. Neighborhood diplomacy is challenging and difficult but one that is satisfying at the end” (July 14, 2017).
 

If as stated above, India’s peace prosperity and stability depends on the stability of its neighbors, it is in India’s own interest that there is peace, prosperity and stability in Sri Lanka.   The question then becomes, could there be prosperity in Sri Lanka under a system spawned by the 13th Amendment that denies the right to human development to the entire population of Sri Lanka because of the systemic unsuitability of the system imposed by India?   Furthermore, how could there be stability in Sri Lanka when the overwhelming majority is disadvantaged by the system of provincial governance introduced by India?   
 

India’s interest in the Tamil community in Sri Lanka is driven by India’s own internal imperatives because of the perception that a Tamil community in Sri Lanka with fulfilled expectations would not give cause for instability in Tamil Nadu on account of Tamils in Sri Lanka.   However, the context in which such notions thrived has changed.  Therefore, India has to think beyond internal parochial interests.   Having joined the QUAD India has to act as a global player.   To do so India has to reset its sights and see nation-states as whole entities and not as made up of ethnic communities which means India has to address the concerns of the rump of sovereign States   As far as Sri Lanka is concerned, this is to accept that the model imposed by India has failed, and that India should not to stand in the way of Sri Lanka developing an alternative to the provincial council system, because it is in India’s own interest to do so.   
 

CONCLUSION
 

The comment by India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar Joint Press Conference was that ‘It was in Sri Lanka’s own interest that expectations of the Tamil people for equality, justice, peace and dignity within a united Sri Lanka should be fulfilled and Delhi insists on the importance of the 13th Amendment in fulfilling those expectations’.  
 

For a seasoned diplomat to use words such as fulfilling expectations within a UNITED Sri Lanka and to INSIST on the importance of the 13th Amendment means that the gloves have come off.   As it is with the U.S. using human rights issues in Sri Lanka to contain China’s influence in Sri Lanka, India is using the 13th Amendment coupled with Japanese funds to get involved in Sri Lanka to dilute Chinese influence in Sri Lanka.  
 

This is the background in which Sri Lanka has to act.  After thirty plus years of denial of the right to human development of the citizens of Sri Lanka as a result of the provincial councils set up under the 13th Amendment that was imposed in violation of principles of the Non-Aligned Movement of which India was a founding member, the people of Sri Lanka cannot afford to wait any longer.    Therefore, the people who elected this President and this Parliament should prevail on the government to submit a formal statement to India that Sri Lanka would engage in an exercise to develop an alternative to the existing system.      
   

The repeated references to the 13th Amendment demonstrate that India’s take on Sri Lanka has not changed.  Even after a lapse of nearly thirty plus years and the passing away of most of the major actors associated with Tamil politics in India and Sri Lanka, India continues to see Sri Lanka from the perspective of Tamil politics.   In the meantime, the global landscape has changed dramatically with the ascendance of formidable global players that view Sri Lanka’s strategic location as being vital to their geostrategic interests.   They view Sri Lanka as a nation-state and not as one made up of communities as demonstrated by India.   This difference in perspective is not in India’s own interest.   Therefore, in keeping with India’s own policy of “Neighbourhood First”, it is in India’s own interest to change its take on Sri Lanka, and to recognize it as being a sovereign nation-state and not one made up of disparate communities, if India is not to be seen as “India First in the Neighbourhood”.



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Iain Douglas-Hamilton: Science, courage, and the battle for elephants

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Iain Douglas-Hamilton

Passing of Iain Douglas-Hamilton, a man who dedicated his life to conservation and whose life’s work leaves a lasting impact on our appreciation for, and understanding of, elephants.

– Prince William

In Africa on 08 December, 2025, when the sun slipped below the horizon, it did not only give an end for that day, but it also marked the end of a man whose knowledge and courage saved Africa’s elephants. This gentleman was none other than Iain Douglas-Hamilton! There is a beautiful African proverb that says, “When an old man dies, a library burns to the ground,” and it resonates well with Iain’s demise.

Iain pioneered behaviour research on elephants, and he was the first to highlight the elephant poaching crisis in Africa. Also, the adventures he went through to save the elephants will inspire generations.

From Oxford to Africa

The Life of the Last Proboscideans: Elephants”, authored by Muthukumarana, stands as an awardwinning, comprehensive study that integrates elephant evolution, anthropology, biology, behaviour, and conservation science.

Iain was born on 16 August, 1942, into an aristocratic family, the son of Lord David Douglas-Hamilton and Ann Prunella Stack. His parents were a distinguished couple in Britain: his father, a Scottish nobleman, served as a squadron leader in the Royal Air Force, while his mother was a pioneering figure in physical fitness and a prominent advocate for women’s rights. After finishing his school, Iain was admitted to Oxford University to study zoology. At the age of 23, for his PhD, Iain travelled to Tanzania to study the behaviour of elephants at Lake Manyara National Park. This was a daring and humble beginning that would change how the world understood elephants. He learnt to recognise individual animals based on their tusks and ears. He observed their family bonds, their grief, and their intelligence. These findings made the scientific community identify elephants as sentimental beings. During this period, he married Oria Rocco, and together they had two children, Saba and Mara.

Battle for the elephants

When ivory poaching swept across Africa and devastated elephant populations, Iain did not withdraw in despair. He confronted the crisis head-on, guided by science, rigorous data, and unwavering resolve. Through extensive aerial counts and field studies, he laid bare the scale of the tragedy—revealing that Africa’s elephant numbers had collapsed from an estimated 1.3 million to just about 600,000 in little more than 10 years.

It was largely thanks to his work that the global community saw—perhaps for the first time—the full scope of the crisis. His efforts played a pivotal role in pushing forward the 1989 international ban on ivory trade, a landmark moment for wildlife conservation.

In 1993, Iain founded Save the Elephants (STE), an organisation that would become the heart of elephant conservation efforts in Kenya and across Africa.

At STE, he pioneered the use of GPS-tracking and aerial survey techniques to monitor elephant movements, protect them from poaching, and plan safe corridors for them in increasingly human-dominated landscapes. These methods have since become standard tools in wildlife conservation worldwide.

Beyond technology and science, Iain was a mentor. He inspired — and continues to inspire — generations of conservationists, researchers, and everyday people who care deeply about wildlife. Through his books (such as Among the Elephants and Battle for the Elephants), documentaries, lectures, and personal example, he invited the world to see elephants not as trophies or commodities, but as sentient beings — worthy of awe, study, and protection.

Iain and Sri Lanka

In 2003 Iain came to Sri Lanka for the first time to attend the “Symposium on Human-Elephant Relationships and Conflict” as the keynote speaker. On that day he concluded his address by saying, “When I hear the talk of Problem Animal Control, I always wonder whether our species has the capacity for its own self-regulation or Problem Human Control in a humane and wise manner. HEC stands for Human Elephant Conflict, one of our focuses of this conference. How I wish it could come to stand for Human Elephant Coexistence, based on a recognition that other beings also need their space to live in. We are a long way from that, but I am sure that many of the findings of the talented body of researchers in this room will begin a stepwise progress in answering some of these fundamental problems.”

A few years ago Iain’s organisation STE collaborated with the Sri Lankan Wildlife Conservation Society for research activities aimed at reducing human-elephant conflict. In 2016 when the Sri Lankan government was going to destroy the confiscated illegal African elephant ivory, I made a request for Iain to write a congratulatory message to Sri Lanka’s President and Prime Minister for the wise decision they had taken. Iain sent me a four-page meaningful letter written by him, and he was joined by 18 other conservation organisations. In his letter he mentioned, “I want to offer my congratulations to the government of Sri Lanka for the laudable decision to destroy ivory stocks…” Sri Lanka is sending a message to the world that ivory should be without worth; elephants have value when alive. This is a critical message to send, particularly to the religious world, as they are sensitised about the threat religious ivory poses to elephant populations in Africa.”

Fortunately, Iain’s conservation is taken up by his children, especially his eldest daughter, Saba. In 2016 and 2024 she came to Sri Lanka for a lecture hosted by the Galle Literary Festival. Also in 2019, for the Wildlife and Nature Protection Society’s 125th Anniversary, Saba and her husband visited a gala dinner that was held to fundraise for conservation projects.

A difficult path

Iain’s path was never easy. He endured personal peril many times: from hostile terrain and unpredictable wild animals to being shot at by poachers while conducting aerial patrols over war-torn national parks.

Yet despite the danger, despite setbacks — flooded camps, lost data, shifting political tides — his conviction never wavered. His was a life marked by resilience. He refused complacency. He refused to surrender. And through every hardship, he remembered why he began: to give elephants a future.

Iain was also a pilot, and as the old English saying goes, “Pilots don’t die; they simply fly higher.” In that spirit, I wish the same peaceful ascent for Iain. My heartfelt condolences are with Iain’s family.

by Tharindu Muthukumarana ✍️
tharinduele@gmail.com
(Author of the award-winning book “The Life of Last Proboscideans: Elephants”)




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Awesome power of gratitude

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When you hear the word gratitude the first impression you get is a tail-wagging dog. If you feed a dog one day, it will wag its tail even if you meet it after a few years. That is gratitude. In addition, dogs are great teachers. They are at home in the world. They live in the moment and they force us to stay with them. Dogs love us and remain grateful unconditionally not for our bodies or bank accounts.

Small children are taught to say ‘Thank you’ for any favour they receive from others. They do not know that the two words can have positive effects on your health and the well-being of others.

Some time ago I had to call emergency services as I found one of my family members was unconscious. Within minutes an ambulance arrived and the paramedics whisked the patient away to the nearest hospital. He was in intensive care for a few days and returned home. We were marvelled at the impact of a handful of strangers who took charge of the patient at a critical time. I immediately wrote thank you notes to those who saved the patient’s life. I knew that it was a small gesture on my part. However, it was the only way I could express my gratitude to a dedicated team.

Selfless people

Later I realized that there are a large number of selfless people who do life-saving work, but they never expect anything in return. How volunteers saved a large number of flood victims is a case in point. The flood victims may not have expressed their gratitude in so many words. However, they would have felt a deep sense of gratitude to the volunteers who saved them.

Why do people come forward to help those facing natural disasters and other dangerous situations? A recent research in the United States shows that sharing thoughts of gratitude and performing acts of kindness can boost your mood and have other positive effects on your health. Almost all religions teach that gratitude does have a good impact on your happiness. Professor of Psychology Willibald Ruch says that gratitude is among the top five predictors of happiness.

By showing gratitude you can make positive changes in your own life. If you feel a sense of gratitude whenever you receive something that is good for you, it will be a healthy sign. You cannot get such a feeling in a vacuum because others have to play their roles. They can be your loved ones, friends, strangers or even people in authority. Gratitude is how you relate to them when you see yourself in connection with things larger than yourself.

Gratification lifestyle

Strangely, many people do not pause to appreciate what others are doing for them. For this you have to blame your gratification lifestyle. With the popularity of social media the young people feel that they are the centre of the universe. They seem to think there is no necessity to thank those who help them.

Why should we thank others even for minor favours? Recent studies show that those who express gratitude increase their own happiness levels. They also lower their blood pressure levels to a great extent. On the other hand, they will be able to sleep well and improve their relationships. They are also less affected by pain because of the positive impact on their depression.

They may not know that positive effects of gratitude are long lasting. Research shows that those who write thank you notes improve their mental health. There was also a decrease in their bodily pains. What is more, they feel more energetic in completing their daily activities. Unfortunately, schools and universities do not teach the value of gratitude since it is fairly a new field of study. Researchers are still trying to find out its cause and effect relationship. We know that those who perform acts of gratitude can sleep well. However, we do not know the reason for it. Researchers are wondering whether gratitude leads to better sleep or sleep leads to more gratitude. They also probe whether there is another variable that leads to gratitude and improved sleep.

Children

Despite such controversies, we know for certain that gratitude can benefit people at any stage of life. Most elderly people remain grateful for their children and grandchildren who support them. Elderly people cannot regain their physical strength or mental agility. Therefore they focus on gratitude. They are thankful to their children and grandchildren for their present situation.

How do gratitude recipients react? Research shows that those who receive thank you notes or acts of kindness experience positive emotions. You feel happy when someone holds a door open for you. Similarly, you are happy if you receive some unexpected help. Recently I was pleasantly surprised to see that someone has credited a big sum of money to my bank account in appreciation of a small favour I had done.

When you thank someone they are more likely to return the favour or pay kindness forward. Psychologically, people feel very happy when you thank them. However, some people hesitate to say thank you. The give-and-take of gratitude deepens relationships. In a close relationship husbands and wives do not thank each other. However, there are other ways of showing gratitude. A wife can make her husband feel appreciated. Such a feeling of appreciation will go a long way to strengthen their relationship.

Some people are ungrateful by nature. However, they can learn the art of being grateful. Such people will do well to maintain a gratitude journal. It is something similar to Pinpotha maintained by Buddhists in the past. They can record positive events in the journal. At the beginning this may not be easy. With practice, however, you can do it well. I knew of a man who kept a gratitude journal. Although his family members laughed at him, he did not give up the habit. When he was diagnosed with a terminal disease he used to read his gratitude journal very happily.

By R.S. Karunaratne ✍️

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Another Christmas, Another Disaster, Another Recovery Mountain to Climb

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In line with its overall response to Cyclone Ditwah that devastated many parts of Sri Lanka, India has undertaken to set up temporary Bailey Bridges at selected locations. Work on the first such bridge has begun in Kilinochchi on the Paranthan–Karaichi–Mullaitivu A35 road. Indian Army engineers are working with their counterparts. The Indian HC said that 185 tonnes of Bailey Bridge units were airlifted to restore critical connectivity, along with 44 engineers (Pic courtesy IHC)

The 2004 Asian Tsunami erupted the day after Christmas. Like the Boxing Day Test Match in Brisbane, it was a boxing day bolt for Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, India and Maldives. Twenty one years later, in 2025, multiple Asian cyclones hit almost all the old victims and added a few more, including Malayasia, Vietnam and Cambodia. Indonesia and Sri Lanka were hit hard both times. Unlike the 2004 Tsunami, the 2025 cyclones made landfalls weeks before Christmas, during the Christian Season of Advent, the four-week period before Christmas preparing for the arrival of the Messiah. An ominously adventus manifestation of the nature’s fury.

Yet it was not the “day of wrath and doom impending … heaven and earth in ashes ending” – heavenly punishment for government lying, as an opposition politician ignorantly asserted. By that token, the gods must have opted to punish half a dozen other Asian countries for the NPP government’s lying in Sri Lanka. Or all those governments have been caught lying. Everyone is caught and punished for lying, except the world’s Commander in Chief for lying – Donald J. Trump. But as of late and none too sooner, President Trump is getting his punishment in spades. Who would have thought?

In fairness, even the Catholic Church has banished its old hymn of wrath (Dies irae, dies illa) that used to be sung at funerals from its current Missals; and it has on offer, many other hymns of peace and joy, especially befitting the Christmas season. Although this year’s Christmas comes after weeks of havoc caused by cyclonic storms and torrential rains, the spirit of the season, both in its religious and secular senses, will hopefully provide some solace for those still suffering and some optimism to everyone who is trying to uplift the country from its overflowing waterways and sliding slopes.

As the scale of devastation goes, no natural disaster likely will surpass the human fatalities that the 2004 Tsunami caused. But the spread and scale of this year’s cyclone destruction, especially the destruction of the island’s land-forms and its infrastructure assets, are, in my view, quite unprecedented. The scale of the disaster would finally seem to have sunk into the nation’s political skulls after a few weeks of cacophonic howlers – asking who knew and did what and when. The quest for instant solutions and the insistence that the government should somehow find them immediately are no longer as vehement and voluble as they were when they first emerged.

NBRO and Landslides

But there is understandable frustration and even fear all around, including among government ministers. To wit, the reported frustration of Agriculture Minister K.D. Lalkantha at the alleged inability of the National Building Research Organization (NBRO) to provide more specific directions in landslide warnings instead of issuing blanket ‘Level 3 Red Alerts’ covering whole administrative divisions in the Central Province, especially in the Kandy District. “We can’t relocate all 20 divisional secretariats” in the Kandy District, the Minister told the media a few weeks ago. His frustration is understandable, but expecting NBRO to provide political leaders with precise locations and certainty of landslides or no landslides is a tall ask and the task is fraught with many challenges.

In fairness to NBRO and its Engineers, their competence and their responses to the current calamity have been very impressive. It is not the fault of the NBRO that local disasters could not be prevented, and people could not be warned sufficiently in advance to evacuate and avoid being at the epicentre of landslides. The intensity of landslides this year is really a function of the intensity and persistence of rainfall this season, for the occurrence of landslides in Sri Lanka is very directly co-related to the amount of rainfall. The rainfall during this disaster season has been simply relentless.

Evacuation, the ready remedy, is easier said than socially and politically done. Minister Lal Kantha was exasperated at the prospect of evacuating whole divisional secretariats. This was after multiple landslides and the tragedies and disasters they caused. Imagine anybody seriously listening to NBRO’s pleas or warnings to evacuate before any drop of rainwater has fallen, not to mention a single landslide. Ignoring weather warnings is not peculiar to Sri Lanka, but a universal trait of social inertia.

I just lauded NBRO’s competence and expertise. That is because of the excellent database the NBRO professionals have compiled, delineating landslide zones and demarcating them based on their vulnerability for slope failure. They have also identified the main factors causing landslides, undertaken slope stabilization measures where feasible, and developed preventative and mitigative measures to deal with landslide occurrences.

The NBRO has been around since the 1980s, when its pioneers supplemented the work of Prof. Thurairajah at Peradeniya E’Fac in studying the Hantana hill slopes where the NHDA was undertaking a large housing scheme. As someone who was involved in the Hantana project, I have often thought that the initiation of the NBRO could be deemed one of the positive legacies of then Housing Ministry Secretary R. Paskaralingam.

Be that as it may, the NBRO it has been tracking and analyzing landslides in Sri Lanka for nearly three decades, and would seem to have come of age in landslides expertise with its work following 2016 Aranayake Landslide Disaster in the Kegalle District. Technically, the Aranayake disaster is a remarkable phenomenon and it is known as a “rain-induced rapid long-travelling landslide” (RRLL). In Kegalle the 2016 RRLL carried “a fluidized landslide mass over a distance of 2 km” and caused the death of 125 people. International technical collaboration following the disaster produced significant research work and the start of a five-year research project (from 2020) in partnership with the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL). The main purpose of the project is to improve on the early warning systems that NBRO has been developing and using since 2007.

Sri Lankan landslides are rain induced and occur in hilly and mountainous areas where there is rapid weathering of rock into surface soil deposits. Landslide locations are invariably in the wet zone of the country, in 13 districts, in six provinces (viz., the Central, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Northwestern, Western and Southern, provinces). The Figure below (from NBRO’s literature) shows the number of landslides and fatalities every year between 2003 and 2021.

Based on the graphics shown, there would have been about 5,000 landslides and slope failures with nearly 1,000 deaths over 19 years between 2003 and 2021. Every year there was some landslide or slope failure activity. One notable feature is that there have been more deaths with fewer landslides and vice-versa in particular years. In 2018, there were no deaths when the highest number (1,250) of landslides and slope failures occurred that year. Although the largest number in an year, the landslides in 2018 could have been minor and occurred in unpopulated areas. The reasons for more deaths in, say, 2016 (150) or 2017 (250+), could be their location, population density and the severity of specific landslides.

NBRO’s landslide early warning system is based on three components: (1) Predicting rainfall intensity and monitoring water pressure build up in landslide areas; (2) Monitoring and observing signs of soil movement and slope instability in vulnerable areas; and (3) Communicating landslide risk level and appropriate warning to civil authorities and the local public. The general warnings to Watch (Yellow), be Alert (Brown), or Evacuate (Red) are respectively based on the anticipated rainfall intensities, viz., 75 mm/day, 100 mm/day; and 150 mm/day or 100 mm/hr. My understanding is that over the years, NBRO has established its local presence in vulnerable areas to better communicate with the local population the risk levels and timely action.

Besides Landslides

This year, the rain has been relentless with short-term intensities often exceeding the once per 100-year rainfall. This is now a fact of life in the era of climate change. Added to this was cyclone Ditwah and its unique meteorology and trajectory – from south to north rather than northeast to southwest. The cyclone started with a disturbance southwest of Sri Lanka in the Arabian Sea, traversed around the southern coast from west to east to southeast in the Bay of Bengal, and then cut a wide swath from south to north through the entire easterly half of the island. The origin and the trajectory of the cyclone are also attributed to climate change and changes in the Arabian Sea. The upshot again is unpredictability.

Besides landslides, the rainfall this season has inundated and impacted practically every watershed in the country, literally sweeping away roads, bridges, tanks, canals, and small dams in their hundreds or several hundreds. The longitudinal sinking of the Colombo-Kandy Road in the Kadugannawa area seems quite unparalleled and this may not be the only location that such a shearing may have occurred. The damages are so extensive and it is beyond Sri Lanka’s capacity, and the single-term capacity of any government, to undertake systematic rebuilding of the damaged and washed-off infrastructure.

The government has its work cutout at least in three areas of immediate restoration and long term prevention. On landslides warning, it would seem NBRO has the technical capacity to do what it needs to do, and what seems to be missing is a system of multi-pronged and continuous engagement between the technical experts, on the one hand, and the political and administrative powers as well as local population and institutions, on the other. Such an arrangement is warranted because the landslide problem is severe, significant and it not going to go away now or ever.

Such an engagement will also provide for the technical awareness of the problem, its mitigation and the prevention of serious fallouts. A restructuring could start from the assignment of ministerial responsibilities, and giving NBRO experts constant presence at the highest level of decision making. The engagement should extend down the pyramid to involve every level of administration, including schools and civil society organizations at the local level.

As for external resources, several Asian countries, with India being the closest, are already engaged in multiple ways. It is up to the government to co-ordinate and deploy these friendly resources for maximum results. Sri Lanka is already teamed with India for meteorological monitoring and forecasting, and with Japan for landslide research and studies. These collaborations will obviously continue but they should be focused to fill gaps in climate predictions, and to enhance local level monitoring and prevention of landslides.

To deal with the restoration of the damaged infrastructure in multiple watershed areas, the government may want to revisit the Accelerated Mahaweli Scheme for an approach to deal with the current crisis. The genesis and implementation of that scheme involved as many flaws as it produced benefits, but what might be relevant here is to approach the different countries who were involved in funding and building the different Mahaweli headworks and downstream projects. Australia, Britain, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, Sweden and Germany are some of the countries that were involved in the old Mahaweli projects. They could be approached for technical and financial assistance to restore the damaged infrastructure pieces in the respective watershed areas where these countries were involved.

by Rajan Philips ✍️

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