Business
How Should Sri Lanka Finance the COVID-19 Vaccination Rollout?
Notably, the government did not budget for a vaccination strategy in its National Budget for 2021. As such, any spending would have to be allocated through an emergency budgetary allocation. The government could potentially reallocate funding from other sectors or even reallocate from within the health sector. These reallocations, for example, could occur through built-in fiscal space for public investments in the budget, postponements or revisions to non-essential government spending initiatives such as non-essential small-scale infrastructure projects
By Harini Weerasekera and Kithmina Hewage
An effective vaccination strategy is a necessity for countries to move beyond COVID-19. However, it also requires careful policymaking to balance the financial cost of purchasing and delivering vaccines while stimulating economic growth. This article, based on a recent IPS analysis, provides an overview of the approximate costs associated with the COVID-19 vaccination rollout in Sri Lanka and evaluates policy options to finance the initiative.
Assessing Costs
While there is no universally agreed level, considering the emergence of new variants, many experts agree that a country should vaccinate around 80% of its population to achieve herd immunity against COVID-19. This translates to 17.5 million Sri Lankans. Thus far, Sri Lanka has received or is expected to receive vaccine donations and other financial assistance from the likes of the World Health Organization’s COVAX Facility to cover approximately 20% of the population.
Based on publicly available proxy data, as detailed in Table 1 below, assuming that 20% of the population will be financed through the WHO COVAX scheme, the total cost of self-financing another 60% of the population is USD 139.1 million. These costs include both the cost of purchasing the cheapest vaccine (AstraZeneca-
Oxford) and the immunisation delivery costs.
In a recent study, the World Bank estimates that for the South Asian region, the average per person vaccination cost amounts to USD 12 to receive one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, under certain assumptions. This costing consists of the full vaccine deployment cost per person, which includes the vaccine dosage cost along with the international airfare and other delivery costs.
Using this basis of costing, financing two doses of the vaccine for 60% of Sri Lanka’s population would amount to USD 336 million. This is over double the minimum estimate made earlier using local proxy data. As such, a range of USD 140-336 million (LKR 27-66 billion) can be treated as a minimum and maximum estimate range for financing the long-term vaccination strategy in Sri Lanka. This amounts to 0.6-1.4% of total government expenditure for 2020, which is a relatively small proportion of the country’s total government expenditure. For context, the health sector was allocated 4.8% of total government expenditure in 2020. That said, the estimated costs range between 12 and 29.5% of the Ministry of Health’s total expenditure for 2021.
Furthermore, given difficulties in securing all necessary vaccines from a single producer (e.g. AstraZeneca) due to supply shortages, Sri Lanka has already moved towards purchasing Sputnik V and Pfizer vaccines, which are more expensive than AstraZeneca, and therefore will increase costs. The cost increase will be significant given that other vaccines are two to six times more expensive than a dose of Astra-Zeneca (Table 2).
Given these realities, Sri Lanka will need to cover these costs through one or a combination of: (a) reallocating existing budgetary commitments; (b) receiving more bilateral and multilateral vaccine donations or financial assistance; or (c) self-financing through targetted tax policies and future borrowings.
Reallocating Budgetary Commitments
Notably, the government did not budget for a vaccination strategy in its National Budget for 2021. As such, any spending would have to be allocated through an emergency budgetary allocation. The government could potentially reallocate funding from other sectors or even reallocate from within the health sector. These reallocations, for example, could occur through built-in fiscal space for public investments in the budget, postponements or revisions to non-essential government spending initiatives such as non-essential small-scale infrastructure projects.
However, the extent to which such revisions can be incorporated is greatly limited by the economic conditions under which this vaccination initiative is taking place. Some of these small-scale infrastructure projects, for instance, are geared towards stimulating the economy.
Sri Lanka’s post-COVID-19 economic recovery is dependent on adequate government spending to stimulate growth, and there has already been a significant amount of spending rationalisation that has taken place. Furthermore, the government will be required to ensure that the broader public health sector is not compromised in any form simply to fund the COVID-19 vaccination initiative as that may have further severe long-term repercussions.
Self-Financing
Given the current economic climate, the government is unlikely to increase direct taxes in the immediate future. Increasing indirect taxes such as import tariffs are also likely to be counter-productive since imports are restricted. Rather, a tax rationalisation on luxury goods and a sin-tax rationalisation on alcohol and cigarettes could generate a significant amount of revenue that can be directed towards the vaccination drive.
For instance, a recent study by IPS estimated that government revenue could be increased by LKR 17 billion by 2021, and LKR 37 billion by 2023, if taxes on cigarettes are streamlined and raised in line with inflation. This additional revenue can finance the vaccination strategy such that it reaches the midpoint of the study’s cost estimation range of LKR 20-67 billion.
A targetted tax intervention achieves the dual aim of raising the required funds to vaccinate the public while simultaneously ensuring that the government’s broader macroeconomic stimulus initiatives can continue unimpeded. If the government is unwilling to finance the entire cost through a targetted tax intervention, even a partial self-financing measure would reduce the necessity for the government to depend on further loans to cover the cost.
Best Option
A basic economic impact analysis by IPS found that the vaccination rollout would generate an additional 30.6 billion in national output, and an extra value addition of LKR 26 billion. Besides, the country’s economy will benefit additionally due to the indirect impacts associated with the public health benefits of a vaccinated populace.
Considering these factors, the government is best off pursuing a medium-term self-financing option through targetted tax interventions and if required, through external financing. The challenge for Sri Lanka is to secure adequate funding without compromising on its investments in broader public health and social welfare initiatives as weaknesses on those fronts can undermine the success of vaccinating the public from COVID-19.
From a budgetary perspective, the cost of vaccinating the public fast will also be cheaper than the cost of continuous PCR testing, managing quarantine centres and cluster associated lockdowns over a prolonged period. In addition to securing funding, receiving an adequate supply of vaccine doses for the country to reach its vaccination coverage targets remains uncertain as we progress further into 2021.
To learn more, read IPS’ Policy Discussion Brief (PDB) ‘Fiscal Implications of Vaccinating Sri Lanka Against COVID-19’.
Business
Inflation curbed by govt. fuel subsidy introduction and surcharge on vehicle import tax – CBSL Governor
By Hiran H. Senewiratne
The government’s decision to introduce the fuel subsidy and the surcharge on the vehicle import tax helped curb inflation to a great extent, Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe said.
‘The government this week approved a Rs. 40 billion fuel subsidy for the next three months on top of Rs. 57 billion provided from April-June, Governor Weerasinghe told the media yesterday at the Central Bank head office in Colombo at the CBSL’s monthly monetary policy review meeting.
‘If not for fuel subsidy and surcharge on the vehicle import tax, the inflation would have been higher than the current level, the Governor said.
‘There could have been higher imports and reserve building up would have been difficult. Inflation has risen beyond the Central Bank’s upper band of 7 percent since July, he said.
‘The country’s inflation hit a 37-month high of 8 percent in August after the government raised fuel prices more than 50 percent following the Middle Eastern escalation by end February, Dr Weerasinghe said.
The Central Bank’s inflation target for the past three years have been 5 percent with lower band of 3 percent and higher band of 7 percent, Governor said.
The Governor added: ‘The government provided Rs.57 billion as a fuel subsidy mainly for diesel. The latest Rs.41 billion has been allocated only for diesel as it is used for public transport.
‘The government also imposed a temporary 50 percent surcharge on Customs Import Duty on new personal vehicles on May 16 and has extended it until December 31, a move that will help to prevent outflow of foreign currency.
‘The Central Bank also tightened the monetary policy in May, raising the key monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, to curb excess demand in the economy to control demand-driven inflation.’
Meanwhile, head of the CBSL’s Economic Research Department L.R.C. Pathberiya said, ‘Credit growth has slowed to 24.5 percent year on year in August from a higher level of 30 percent a few months ago, after the Central Bank’s monetary policy tightening in May.
‘However, the Central Bank is optimistic about the current credit growth, he explained.
Pathberiya added: ‘The credit to the private sector from commercial banks has slowed, but we believe it is sufficient for economic growth.
‘The nation’s economic growth slowed to 4.2 percent year-on-year, its lowest in 11 quarters’’.
Business
PM warns Sri Lanka’s waste crisis is a ‘disaster waiting to happen’
By Ifham Nizam
Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya warned that Sri Lanka’s worsening waste-management crisis, particularly the uncontrolled accumulation of plastic waste and poorly managed landfills, was a “disaster waiting to happen”, urging scientists, researchers and policymakers to help the government find practical solutions before the problem reaches a critical point.
Addressing the launching of the Open University of Sri Lanka organized, ‘International Conference on Plastics, Innovations and Environmental Sustainability’ (ICPIES 2026) as Chief Guest, at the Cinnamon Lakeside Hotel yesterday she said waste management, waste reduction and recycling had become national priorities, with the government placing greater emphasis on the issue in its preparations for the 2027 Budget.
‘This is becoming a critical issue and something that, at any moment, if we don’t manage it properly, could become a huge disaster. It’s a disaster waiting to happen, Dr. Amarasuriya said.
She said unregulated and poorly managed landfills, particularly in and around Colombo, posed serious environmental and public risks, while increasing urbanisation was extending the waste-management challenge beyond the capital to other parts of the country.
‘As a member of Parliament for the Colombo District, I can tell you that one of the biggest challenges we are facing is waste management and actually managing the recycling of waste, and particularly of plastic products. This is something that we are battling every day, she said.
The Prime Minister said the government could not regard economic development as meaningful if it came at the expense of the country’s environment and natural resources.
‘If we are to speak of a beautiful life, we must first ensure that the air we breathe, the water we drink, the soil on which we live, the food we eat is clean and secure, she said.
She pointed to the scale of the global plastics crisis, noting that around 400 million tonnes of plastic waste are generated worldwide each year, while between 19 and 23 million metric tonnes of plastic waste enter natural ecosystems annually.
Plastic waste eventually breaks down into microplastics, which can enter aquatic organisms and subsequently the human food chain, she said.
Dr. Amarasuriya also linked plastic consumption and environmental degradation to the wider climate crisis, warning that the consequences of climate change were already being experienced by communities around the world.
She referred to devastating floods and landslides in the Himalayan region and said the impacts of climate change demonstrated that environmental damage could have consequences far beyond national boundaries.
Coastal clean-up projects and other waste-separation and recycling initiatives are also being implemented, while the government is working with the Western Provincial Council on a refuse-derived fuel project at Karadiyana.
The third ICPIES, held under the theme “Eco-Driven Innovations,” brings together researchers, policymakers, industry representatives and other stakeholders to examine plastic pollution, microplastics, circular-economy approaches, waste-management policy, technological innovation, artificial intelligence and smart environmental monitoring. The conference ends today.
Senior Professor P. M. C. Thilakarathne, Vice Chancellor of the Open University of Sri Lanka, was the Guest of Honour.
Business
Mention of possible future inflation dampens investor appetite
By Hiran H. Senewiratne
Stock investors were worried yesterday following Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe’s mention at the CBSL monthly monetary policy review meet of possible future inflation pressures that may impact the economy.
The All Share Price Index went down by 4.89 points, while the S and P SL20 rose by 16.1 points. Turnover stood at Rs 1.55 billion with four crossings.
Those crossings were; Access Engineering crossed 1.5 million shares to the tune of Rs 119.8 million; its shares traded at Rs 79.60, Sampath Bank 450,000 shares crossed tfor Rs 63 million; its shares sold at Rs 140, Sunshine Holdings 750,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 21.4 million; its shares traded at Rs 28.50 and Softlogic Life 290,000 shares crossed for Rs 20.4 million; its shares sold at Rs 70.40.
In the retail market companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were: Access Engineering Rs 150 million (1.9 million shares traded), JKH Rs 113 million (six million shares traded), Softlogic Life Rs 80 million (one million shares traded), Softlogic Capital Rs 64.7 million (6.7 million shares traded), Lanka Realty Rs 64.3 million (1.3 million shares traded), Colombo Dockyard Rs 53.7 million (452,000 shares traded) and Sierra Cables Rs 50 million (1.43 million shares traded). During the day 58.9 million share volumes changed hands in 13536 transactions.
It is said that mixed market reactions were noted especially in manufacturing while banking, insurance and FMCG sectors performed well. Further, construction sector counters, especially Access Engineering, and banking sector counters, especially Sampath Bank, performed well.
People’s Leasing & Finance PLC announced its allotment basis for 100 million listed debentures it issued to raise Rs 10 billion, after receiving applications for the full amount.
Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 330.68/75 to the US dollar in the spot market from Rs 330.70/90 the previous day, while bond yields were quoted steady to lower, dealers said.
An auction of Rs 80,000 million Treasury bills was ongoing.
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