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From Delta to Omicron: Will there be a tsunami of patients?

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Dr. Pradeep Kariyawasam
Former Epidemiologist/Chief Medical Officer of Health
Colombo Municipal Council

All over the world the Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus has been replaced by the Omicron variant. It is happening in Sri Lanka, too, according to reports issued by the Ministry of Health recently. At present it is said that between 60-90% of patients found in various parts of the country have been infected with Omicron. The percentages are higher in the cities than in the suburbs. This is because the population densities are higher in the cities and the it is easily transmitted from one person to another. The other aspect is the transmissibility of the variants, and it is said that the Omicron variant has a 1.5 times higher transmissibility rate than the Delta variant. I believe that the change from Delta to Omicron took place as there were hundreds of thousands of people infected with Delta virus and the chance of creation of mutations increased with time. Omicron has a higher transmission rate and there could be many more variants that we have to face with and already a sub-variant has surfaced.

The changeover to Omicron has happened but the numbers are low because we don’t have enough facilities to do genomic sequencing to identify the variants. It is only the Sri Jayewardenepura University that has such facilities and not even the MRI seem to be having a facility to do these investigations. This is a wake-up call to our policymakers to have proper laboratories in the country and that is to have at least one laboratory each in the North, South and Central provinces. The Western Province could be covered by the Sri Jayewardenepura University laboratory. It is a pity that no one seems to care to improve the facilities at their own laboratories. I remember meeting Prof. Sirimali Fernando the architect of this Sri Jayewardenepura university Immunology and Molecular Medicine Unit around 15 years ago when she came to see me with Professor Malavige, then a lecturer, most probably, to tell me that the dengue virus had changed to D-3 and that an epidemic was imminent as people didn’t have immunity against the D-3 virus. What I understood was that the Ministry of Health or the Epidemiology Unit were not interested in that and someone had told them to tell me. I took that seriously and started to carry out prevention and control measures. I started to improve laboratory facilities and we had a top-class laboratory then carrying out 53 types of investigations, basically helping the urban poor to get costly laboratory tests done free of charge. We were the first government laboratory to have NS1 test to identify dengue infections. Today, sad to say our laboratory network at the CMC is almost non-existent and there in no proper City Microbiologist in place and the City Analyst unit, too, was without work and hardly any work was done under the Food Act. It is interesting to note that the City Microbiological Laboratory staff are not at all involved in PCR or antigen testing when there is a global epidemic taking place, although it is a Public Health Laboratory where the plague carrier, a flea, was identified around 1918. In the past few years, it had been a difficult task to even get the much-needed chemicals to run the laboratories. The testing of food and water was stopped while such work in other cities and countries in the world are improving. We are going backwards in laboratory investigations, the regulatory work has suffered immensely, and I think we were better off 50 years ago compared with the situation in those countries then. So, forget about finding new variants on time and taking preventive measures like in advanced and not so advanced countries, as we cannot even run a normal laboratory today and provide the needed information to the patients as well as the authorities.

It is a known fact that hospitalisations and visits to clinics by patients amount to only 10% of the total number of patients suffering from a communicable disease. So, when we say there are 1185 patients on a single day now that means our daily total could be as much as 11800! This figure could be more as many of the patients don’t have symptoms as in any other communicable diseases. When one analyses the figures given out by the Ministry of Ministry of Health daily there is an increase of 5-10% of patients and therefore It is obvious that Omicron is in the community and is spreading rapidly. The hospital beds are full and ICU units are running almost at full capacity. Although Omicron is not a killer as such, compared with the Delta variant, the numbers are high and it seems those not vaccinated with the three doses that the government provided free of charge are the ones who have got the full-blown disease. The deaths due to Covid are also climbing slowly and silently and it is expected that by March we will have a break or make situation. Much depends on the vaccinated numbers and I hope the people will realise that they are helping not only themselves but also the society.

Take for example the covid-19 situations in the UK and Australia and compare them with our situation where the spread is mainly due to the Omicron variant. The UK is experiencing the winter season, Australia the summer and in Sri Lanka we are experiencing a dry hot weather. Earlier it was cold and rainy in December here in our country. On the 12th of December, 2021 the UK registered 48,000 patients for the day. Then the numbers rose sharply within three weeks and rose to reach 218,000 on 4th January 2022. That is more than a four-fold increase! Today, the daily number has gone down to 92,000 but it is still high. Now UK’s population is three times that of Sri Lanka. Take Australia a country with a population just above our country. They had just 1843 new patients on that day, 12th December 2021. By 12th January 2022 the number of new cases for the day peaked at 175,000. By the 3rd February 2022, the numbers had come down to 32,000. During this period what were the numbers here in Sri Lanka? On 12th December 2021 we had just 714 new patients for the day. By 9th January the number of cases went down to 430 and then started to gradually go up and by the 3rd of February, 2022, we had 1183. Compared with the numbers in December 2021 this is almost a three-fold increase. But then why are our numbers so low? Very few people get themselves tested for the Covid-19 virus. The laboratory facilities are difficult to get at. The private sector charges exorbitant prices. So, many wait at home, some use Ayurvedic remedies, but others go to work with the runny nose, sore throat, fever, etc. Of course, they check the temperatures at the entrances but the machines are never calibrated. The workers with the infections hide behind the masks and no one knows whether they are infected or not. There is no social distancing at work.This is so even in medical facilities. There are no proper awareness programmes even in the cities. Parties, demonstrations and meetings are held involving hundreds of people disregarding that we might have an imminent outbreak of Omicron here in the country.

What will happen in the near future? My guess is that there will be a sharp increase in the number of patients during the next few weeks and this will go on till the April holidays. The numbers will not be that high like in Aussie land or the UK due to the hot and dry weather conditions that we experience and also as many of the infected citizens will be not going to a medical facility for treatment or a laboratory for testing and we will not know the exact numbers anyway.

The country should not be locked-down at any cost and people should learn to live with it and at the same time take precautions. The tourism industry has just picked up and statistics show that hardly a tourist is infected with Covid-19 according to PCR tests although the southern coastal line has a large number of infected persons. I think it is the local tourists from Colombo and suburbs that travel to the southern areas that take the disease with them. There should be an increased awareness created among people by using the electronic media to get people’s attention to the need of taking preventive measures and staying put if they have the disease.

All government institutions and the private sector as well should first ask their staff members to get fully vaccinated as they deal with first their own members of staff and then the outsiders or customers. They should ask the staff members to keep away from work if they have a runny nose, sore-throat headache etc. The heads of these institutions should see that no infected persons come to work as bringing in one person with the virus can infect all in one division especially, when they work in a closed air-conditioned room or a hall. In each division a health officer should be appointed to check whether any infected person has come to work. If there are many persons down with covid-19 then all should undergo antigen testing. I think it is better if the government informs these institutions to keep the staff levels at work to 50-70 % during the next few weeks and watch the situation. I am totally against road-side antigen testing as that is trying to find a needle in a haystack. It is better to use the same resources to find the infected people in high-risk institutions and offices which will be more productive.

CMC which is spearheading the covid-19 control campaign should start with their own organization first and put the house in order at the Town Hall as a large number of patients are found there. Colombo and suburbs are the most important areas that the government should concentrate in the vaccination drive as almost all the communicable diseases are spread to other areas from the above areas. Take the month of January this year, out of the 200 dengue fever patients in Colombo District, the Colombo Municipality area has 166 patients. Unlike Delta Omicron infected persons’ lungs will be less affected but then if one is over 60 years of age there could be complications. Therefore, booster vaccinations are a must and the service should be taken to the people and not expectT hem to come to the centers.

So, a massive awareness campaign coupled with an intensive vaccination drive that can cover at least 80% of the eligible persons in the next few weeks will slow down the spread of Omicron variant. Government statistics show that 16.7 million persons were given the first dose of the vaccine, 14 million the second dose but only 5.6 million the third dose showing the decline in interest of citizens to get the vaccine. If this will continue the disease will rapidly spread and the numbers will be high and new variants will emerge. In that case we will have to wait it out while doing our normal day to day work risking our lives until 80% of the population has either got the disease or vaccinated to stop Covid-19. If one wishes to take the risk and not get vaccinated then it is that person’s right. But they have no right to infect others. So be conscientious and think of others, get the vaccines and all will be well.



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Features

Arctic link discovered: Lankan scientists trace 8,000 km seabird migration route

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By Ifham Nizam

Sri Lankan scientists have uncovered a remarkable long-distance migration route used by seabirds, linking the island’s shores with the Arctic—an achievement that is expected to reshape global understanding of bird movement and highlight Sri Lanka’s importance in the natural world.

The discovery, led by Professor Sampath S. Seneviratne of the University of Colombo, shows that Heuglin’s Gulls travel nearly 8,000 kilometres from Sri Lanka to breeding grounds in northern Russia, following a carefully chosen path that combines coastal travel with long inland journeys.

Prof. Seneviratne told The Island that the finding challenges the long-standing belief that seabirds depend mainly on ocean routes.

“For a long time, we assumed seabirds would stay close to the sea throughout their migration. What we are seeing here is very different. These birds are moving across land as well, using a route that connects Sri Lanka directly with the Arctic,” he said.

Brown headed gull- migrating from Himalayas to Mannar

The birds begin their journey from the northwestern coast of Sri Lanka, especially around Mannar—an area known for its rich birdlife and coastal habitats. From there, they cross over to India and move along the western coastline before turning inland.

Their journey then takes them through Pakistan and Afghanistan, across parts of Central Asia, and onwards to the Arctic region, where they breed during the northern summer.

What has drawn particular attention from scientists is the route chosen by the birds.

Instead of attempting to cross the world’s highest mountain ranges, or taking a much longer path over the open ocean, the gulls appear to follow a middle course that allows them to avoid harsh conditions while still maintaining a steady journey.

Map 1 &2 birds moving through the continent to reach the Artctic

“They are not simply taking the shortest distance,” Prof. Seneviratne explained. “They are choosing a route that gives them the best chance of survival. Along this path, they are able to find food, rest, and avoid extreme environments.”

The birds travel long distances each day, covering hundreds of kilometres, but they do not do it all in one stretch. Their journey depends heavily on stopovers—places where they pause to rest and rebuild energy.

“These stopovers are critical,” Prof. Seneviratne said. “If the birds cannot find suitable places to feed and recover, they will not be able to complete the journey.”

Co-researcher Dr. Gayomini Panagoda said the discovery sheds light on a route that had remained largely hidden until now.

“We always knew these birds were leaving Sri Lanka during certain times of the year, but we did not fully understand where they were going or how they got there,” she said. “Now we have a much clearer picture of their journey.”

Awareness among schoolchildren

She added that the findings show how closely connected different parts of the world are through nature.

“A bird that spends part of its life in Sri Lanka ends up in the Arctic. That tells us how linked these ecosystems really are,” she said.

The findings also underline the importance of Sri Lanka’s coastal areas, which serve as vital feeding and resting grounds for migratory birds before they begin their long journey north.

Veteran ornithologist , Professor Emeritus Sarath Kotagama said these habitats are of international importance and must be protected.

“These coastal regions, especially places like Mannar, provide the food and shelter these birds need before migration. If those areas are damaged, it will affect bird populations far beyond Sri Lanka,” he said.

Professor Seneviratne with Dr. Gayomini Panagoda

Kotagama warned that increasing pressure on coastal ecosystems—from development, pollution, and climate change—could pose serious risks.

“We are already seeing changes in many of these birds. If we are not careful, we could lose habitats that are essential not just for local wildlife, but for species that travel across continents,” he said.

The discovery also draws attention to the wider network of migration routes that connect countries across Asia and beyond. Birds do not recognise national borders, and their survival depends on conditions in many different places along their journey.

Prof. Seneviratne stressed that protecting these birds will require cooperation between countries.

“These birds travel across several regions, and each of those regions plays a role in their survival. Conservation cannot be done by one country alone,” he said.

A GPS tagged Crab Plover

He added that more work is needed to understand how other species use similar routes and how changes in climate and land use may affect migration patterns in the future.

“There is still much we do not know. This is just one piece of a much larger picture,” he said.

Environmentalists say the findings should encourage stronger action to protect wetlands and coastal ecosystems in Sri Lanka, many of which are under increasing threat.

“These areas are not just important for birds,” Dr. Panagoda said. “They support fisheries, protect coastlines, and are part of our natural heritage. Protecting them benefits both people and wildlife.”

She noted that conserving these habitats will also help ensure that future generations can continue to witness the arrival and departure of migratory birds.

For Sri Lanka, the discovery is both a moment of pride and a reminder of responsibility.

It highlights the role the island plays in supporting wildlife that travels across vast distances and connects different parts of the world.

It also shows that even a small country can have a big impact when it comes to global biodiversity.

As Prof. Seneviratne put it, “What happens in Sri Lanka does not stay in Sri Lanka. These birds carry that connection across continents.”

The discovery is expected to encourage further research into bird migration in the region, as scientists continue to explore how different species move across landscapes and adapt to changing conditions.

It also reinforces the need to protect the natural environments that make such journeys possible.

In the end, the story of these birds is not just about distance. It is about survival, connection, and the delicate balance of nature.

From the shores of Sri Lanka to the frozen Arctic, their journey is a powerful reminder that the natural world is far more connected than we often realise—and that protecting one part of it helps protect the whole.

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Features

Why the promotion of drone warfare is unconscionable

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A drone strike on an oil facility in the Middle East in the current war.

For the morally-conscious, the tendency among some sections in Sri Lanka to promote the production of drones for national defence purposes could be deeply worrying. Besides, this proposition flies in the face of common sense and disregards the relentlessly increasing harsh economic realities coming in the wake of the current wars that could push many a southern country into beggary. In fact even the West is facing an economic recession.

To begin with the latter issues, it is a proved reality that the majority of Southern countries are descending further into poverty at present. The FAO has the ‘bleeding statistics’ . For instance, food insecurity in Asia is of such disquieting proportions that the region accounts for ‘ approximately half of the world’s 370.7 million undernourished people’.

It is against such a bleak economic backdrop that countries of the South are being called on to pump money into the production or importing of drones. Pointed reference needs to be made here to the South because drones are peddled as cutting-edge defence systems that are comparatively economical to acquire and relatively easy to operate. It is even voiced that with time drones could enable even smaller countries of the South to acquire ‘strategic parity’ with the major powers of the North and middle level powers.

Meanwhile, no thought is spared for the poor of the South who would sink steadily into poverty and powerlessness. Because more defence spending by southern countries only entrenches the ruling classes of those countries, and in some cases their military high commands, further in the systems of governance and repression.

This has essentially been the experience of the majority of post-colonial states. As aptly phrased by economic and political analyst Susan George in the seventies, it has always been a case of ‘The Other Half Dying’.

Accordingly, it cannot be perceived as to how more defence spending by the South on drones could help alleviate the latter’s principal problem of deepening poverty. As for the perceived escalating insecurities of the South, these problems are of such complexity that drones could never be seen as offering a quick fix for them. They need patient, multi-pronged managing, mainly at the negotiating table with the powers that matter. These are long- gestation projects that need to be compulsorily undertaken in view of the fact that the alternative could be indefinite conflict and war.

Since Sri Lanka too is mentioned as one of those countries that needs to look at the drone proposition with some seriousness, it is relevant to underscore that Sri Lanka is second in a list of countries that are described as facing acute material hardships at present in the wake of the economic instability bred by the Hormuz crisis. The source of such information is no less than the respected Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The first 10 such gravely affected countries are: Zambia, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Pakistan, Equatorial Guinea, Kenya, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand.

It is thought-provoking that among the above countries are not only those that have been traditionally seen as experiencing severe underdevelopment but also up-and-coming middle income countries that have been hitherto described as being on a fast track to development. The interesting mix proves that no country at present could consider itself immune to current economic shocks originating mainly in the Middle East that could plunge it dramatically into acute poverty virtually overnight.

We are left to conclude that ‘Bread’ or the economic well being of people could in no way be sacrificed for ‘Drones’ in democratic countries whose governments are obliged to be accountable to the people. Considering the phenomenal hardships that could be waiting to happen worldwide, the world could very well do without more ‘Guns’ or ‘Drones’.

However, if southern governments in particular opt for ‘Drones’ or an accumulation of ‘Guns’, the chances are that there could be overwhelming tides of social discontent in their countries, bred by economic want, that could then ignite indefinite war and repression. That is, a ‘No-Win’ situation for all concerned.

Ukraine has been spiritedly and admirably taking the fight back to the invading Russian forces over the past few years but its skillful use of sophisticated drones of its own making has in no way decreased the human costs the war has been incurring for itself. Ukraine has no choice but to continue with all the weaponry at its command to beat back the Russian invader but sooner rather than later it would need to take into account the immense suffering the war has been inflicting on its people and focus on the fact that the Russians are not backing down but using equally lethal weaponry against it.

The above are some of the dilemmas of the present wars that call for urgent resolution. Warring countries are obliged to address on a priority basis the misery and destruction their actions incur for their publics and consider deploying diplomacy, preferably under the aegis of the UN, to work out peaceful solutions to their enmities and differences. Considering the futility of their war Russia and Ukraine are obliged to think on these lines.

No less a power than the US should be considering deeply right now the advisability of continuing with its military interventions in the South in particular to achieve its self interests. The rising loss of American lives and the economic costs of war in the Middle East will be weighing heavily with the Trump administration and it shouldn’t come as a surprise if negotiations are given a serious try, going ahead. Ground realities in the region moreover indicate that the US ‘has bitten off more than it could chew’ and that Iran is remaining hostile and unyielding despite being bloodied.

For both sides to the war what should be inescapable is the harsh reality of continuing human suffering on a chilling scale. Sophisticated and increasingly destructive weaponry such as drones and missiles are being used but they have not brought either side any closer to victory. Instead human misery is being perpetrated mindlessly with a steady deadening of consciences and a flagrant abandoning of reason.

Accordingly, what perceived legitimate aims could drone warfare, for instance, help achieve? It is quite some time since sections of the world community came to realize the futility of violence and war. There is no choice but for humans to recognize and revere the principle of the sacredness of life. A return to fundamentals is imperative.

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Features

Unforgettable experience …

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The committee members of the Ananda Balika Vidyalaya OGA – UK, who made Funky ’70s Bash Dinner Dance a total success (Photographs by: Praneeth Hettiarachchi)

Singer Rajiv Sebastian has the unique ability to woo an audience and he did just that on his recent trip to London, performing at the Funky ’70s Bash Dinner Dance.

This particular event of music, nostalgia, and celebration, was organised by the Ananda Balika Vidyalaya Old Girls’ Association – UK, and held at the DoubleTree by Hilton London Elstree, in Borehamwood, on 28th February.

They say the success of the evening was made possible through the dedication and hard work of President Devika Arrawwalage and the committed committee members of the Ananda Balika Vidyalaya OGA – UK.

Rajiv Sebastian was in top form, delivering an engaging performance that took the audience on a nostalgic musical journey through the iconic sounds of the’70s.

Doing the first set in full suit, with a fan joining in the action

He did three sets, appearing in three different outfits – suit, the normal shirt and trouser, and the sarong – and the crowd loved it.

Adding to the energy of the event, I’m told, was the music provided by the band Hasthi, made up of Sri Lankan musicians based in the UK.

At the end of a truly enjoyable and memorable event, the organisers had this to say about Rajiv Sebastian’s performance:

“On behalf of the entire team, I want to extend our heartfelt thanks to you for travelling all the way from Sri Lanka to perform at our first ever ABV dinner dance in the UK.

“Your performance was truly the highlight of the night. You have a superb talent for captivating an audience; from the moment you took the stage, your vibrant energy and incredible vocal range completely transformed the atmosphere.

“It was wonderful to see how effortlessly you engaged the crowd, keeping the dance floor packed and everyone in high spirits throughout the evening. You have graced the stage as a guest artiste on three separate occasions, delivering exceptional performances that set you apart from your peers.

“We feel incredibly privileged to have had an artiste of your calibre and charisma join us. You didn’t just provide music; you created an unforgettable experience that people are still talking about.

Surprises for his fans in Sri Lanka, as well

“Thank you for sharing your immense gift with us. Hope to see you back on a UK stage very soon!”

Yes, and it’s happening soon; Rajiv says he is off to London again, in mid-April, and will be performing at four different venues.

He also mentioned that he has some surprises for his fans in Sri Lanka, when he and his band, The Clan, present their 35th Anniversary concert … in June, this year.

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