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From Delta to Omicron: Will there be a tsunami of patients?

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Dr. Pradeep Kariyawasam
Former Epidemiologist/Chief Medical Officer of Health
Colombo Municipal Council

All over the world the Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus has been replaced by the Omicron variant. It is happening in Sri Lanka, too, according to reports issued by the Ministry of Health recently. At present it is said that between 60-90% of patients found in various parts of the country have been infected with Omicron. The percentages are higher in the cities than in the suburbs. This is because the population densities are higher in the cities and the it is easily transmitted from one person to another. The other aspect is the transmissibility of the variants, and it is said that the Omicron variant has a 1.5 times higher transmissibility rate than the Delta variant. I believe that the change from Delta to Omicron took place as there were hundreds of thousands of people infected with Delta virus and the chance of creation of mutations increased with time. Omicron has a higher transmission rate and there could be many more variants that we have to face with and already a sub-variant has surfaced.

The changeover to Omicron has happened but the numbers are low because we don’t have enough facilities to do genomic sequencing to identify the variants. It is only the Sri Jayewardenepura University that has such facilities and not even the MRI seem to be having a facility to do these investigations. This is a wake-up call to our policymakers to have proper laboratories in the country and that is to have at least one laboratory each in the North, South and Central provinces. The Western Province could be covered by the Sri Jayewardenepura University laboratory. It is a pity that no one seems to care to improve the facilities at their own laboratories. I remember meeting Prof. Sirimali Fernando the architect of this Sri Jayewardenepura university Immunology and Molecular Medicine Unit around 15 years ago when she came to see me with Professor Malavige, then a lecturer, most probably, to tell me that the dengue virus had changed to D-3 and that an epidemic was imminent as people didn’t have immunity against the D-3 virus. What I understood was that the Ministry of Health or the Epidemiology Unit were not interested in that and someone had told them to tell me. I took that seriously and started to carry out prevention and control measures. I started to improve laboratory facilities and we had a top-class laboratory then carrying out 53 types of investigations, basically helping the urban poor to get costly laboratory tests done free of charge. We were the first government laboratory to have NS1 test to identify dengue infections. Today, sad to say our laboratory network at the CMC is almost non-existent and there in no proper City Microbiologist in place and the City Analyst unit, too, was without work and hardly any work was done under the Food Act. It is interesting to note that the City Microbiological Laboratory staff are not at all involved in PCR or antigen testing when there is a global epidemic taking place, although it is a Public Health Laboratory where the plague carrier, a flea, was identified around 1918. In the past few years, it had been a difficult task to even get the much-needed chemicals to run the laboratories. The testing of food and water was stopped while such work in other cities and countries in the world are improving. We are going backwards in laboratory investigations, the regulatory work has suffered immensely, and I think we were better off 50 years ago compared with the situation in those countries then. So, forget about finding new variants on time and taking preventive measures like in advanced and not so advanced countries, as we cannot even run a normal laboratory today and provide the needed information to the patients as well as the authorities.

It is a known fact that hospitalisations and visits to clinics by patients amount to only 10% of the total number of patients suffering from a communicable disease. So, when we say there are 1185 patients on a single day now that means our daily total could be as much as 11800! This figure could be more as many of the patients don’t have symptoms as in any other communicable diseases. When one analyses the figures given out by the Ministry of Ministry of Health daily there is an increase of 5-10% of patients and therefore It is obvious that Omicron is in the community and is spreading rapidly. The hospital beds are full and ICU units are running almost at full capacity. Although Omicron is not a killer as such, compared with the Delta variant, the numbers are high and it seems those not vaccinated with the three doses that the government provided free of charge are the ones who have got the full-blown disease. The deaths due to Covid are also climbing slowly and silently and it is expected that by March we will have a break or make situation. Much depends on the vaccinated numbers and I hope the people will realise that they are helping not only themselves but also the society.

Take for example the covid-19 situations in the UK and Australia and compare them with our situation where the spread is mainly due to the Omicron variant. The UK is experiencing the winter season, Australia the summer and in Sri Lanka we are experiencing a dry hot weather. Earlier it was cold and rainy in December here in our country. On the 12th of December, 2021 the UK registered 48,000 patients for the day. Then the numbers rose sharply within three weeks and rose to reach 218,000 on 4th January 2022. That is more than a four-fold increase! Today, the daily number has gone down to 92,000 but it is still high. Now UK’s population is three times that of Sri Lanka. Take Australia a country with a population just above our country. They had just 1843 new patients on that day, 12th December 2021. By 12th January 2022 the number of new cases for the day peaked at 175,000. By the 3rd February 2022, the numbers had come down to 32,000. During this period what were the numbers here in Sri Lanka? On 12th December 2021 we had just 714 new patients for the day. By 9th January the number of cases went down to 430 and then started to gradually go up and by the 3rd of February, 2022, we had 1183. Compared with the numbers in December 2021 this is almost a three-fold increase. But then why are our numbers so low? Very few people get themselves tested for the Covid-19 virus. The laboratory facilities are difficult to get at. The private sector charges exorbitant prices. So, many wait at home, some use Ayurvedic remedies, but others go to work with the runny nose, sore throat, fever, etc. Of course, they check the temperatures at the entrances but the machines are never calibrated. The workers with the infections hide behind the masks and no one knows whether they are infected or not. There is no social distancing at work.This is so even in medical facilities. There are no proper awareness programmes even in the cities. Parties, demonstrations and meetings are held involving hundreds of people disregarding that we might have an imminent outbreak of Omicron here in the country.

What will happen in the near future? My guess is that there will be a sharp increase in the number of patients during the next few weeks and this will go on till the April holidays. The numbers will not be that high like in Aussie land or the UK due to the hot and dry weather conditions that we experience and also as many of the infected citizens will be not going to a medical facility for treatment or a laboratory for testing and we will not know the exact numbers anyway.

The country should not be locked-down at any cost and people should learn to live with it and at the same time take precautions. The tourism industry has just picked up and statistics show that hardly a tourist is infected with Covid-19 according to PCR tests although the southern coastal line has a large number of infected persons. I think it is the local tourists from Colombo and suburbs that travel to the southern areas that take the disease with them. There should be an increased awareness created among people by using the electronic media to get people’s attention to the need of taking preventive measures and staying put if they have the disease.

All government institutions and the private sector as well should first ask their staff members to get fully vaccinated as they deal with first their own members of staff and then the outsiders or customers. They should ask the staff members to keep away from work if they have a runny nose, sore-throat headache etc. The heads of these institutions should see that no infected persons come to work as bringing in one person with the virus can infect all in one division especially, when they work in a closed air-conditioned room or a hall. In each division a health officer should be appointed to check whether any infected person has come to work. If there are many persons down with covid-19 then all should undergo antigen testing. I think it is better if the government informs these institutions to keep the staff levels at work to 50-70 % during the next few weeks and watch the situation. I am totally against road-side antigen testing as that is trying to find a needle in a haystack. It is better to use the same resources to find the infected people in high-risk institutions and offices which will be more productive.

CMC which is spearheading the covid-19 control campaign should start with their own organization first and put the house in order at the Town Hall as a large number of patients are found there. Colombo and suburbs are the most important areas that the government should concentrate in the vaccination drive as almost all the communicable diseases are spread to other areas from the above areas. Take the month of January this year, out of the 200 dengue fever patients in Colombo District, the Colombo Municipality area has 166 patients. Unlike Delta Omicron infected persons’ lungs will be less affected but then if one is over 60 years of age there could be complications. Therefore, booster vaccinations are a must and the service should be taken to the people and not expectT hem to come to the centers.

So, a massive awareness campaign coupled with an intensive vaccination drive that can cover at least 80% of the eligible persons in the next few weeks will slow down the spread of Omicron variant. Government statistics show that 16.7 million persons were given the first dose of the vaccine, 14 million the second dose but only 5.6 million the third dose showing the decline in interest of citizens to get the vaccine. If this will continue the disease will rapidly spread and the numbers will be high and new variants will emerge. In that case we will have to wait it out while doing our normal day to day work risking our lives until 80% of the population has either got the disease or vaccinated to stop Covid-19. If one wishes to take the risk and not get vaccinated then it is that person’s right. But they have no right to infect others. So be conscientious and think of others, get the vaccines and all will be well.



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Features

The challenge of being positive about SAARC

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The RCSS forum addressed by SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar in progress. (Pic courtesy RCSS)

It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.

Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.

However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?

There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.

The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.

Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.

Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.

The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.

On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.

In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.

Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.

Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.

The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.

These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.

Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.

There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.

However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.

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OPA seminar examines Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, resilience and growth pathways

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(L to R) Dr Achinthya Koswatte, Anushan Kapilan, Dr Harsha Aturupane, Bhanu Wijeyaratne, Vice President, OPA and moderator of the discussion, and Eng Chamil Edirimuny, General Secretary, OPA, at the head table.

A seminar, “Sri Lanka’s Economic Crossroads: Navigating Recovery, Resilience and Growth” was recently held by the Organisation of Professional Associations of Sri Lanka (OPA) at the OPA Auditorium, bringing together economists, OPA members, and professionals from diverse fields for an insightful discussion on Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and future growth prospects.

The event was held under the patronage of Jayantha Gallehewa, President of the OPA, and was jointly organised by the National Issues Committee (NIC) and the Seminars, Workshops and Programmes Committee of the OPA. The event reaffirmed the organisation’s commitment to advancing professional excellence, fostering insightful intellectual engagement, facilitating interdisciplinary knowledge exchange and creating a constructive platform for informed dialogue on issues of national importance.

The panel of speakers comprised Dr. Harsha Aturupane, Lead Economist and Programme Leader for Human Development at the World Bank for Sri Lanka and the Maldives; Dr. Achinthya Koswatta, Senior Lecturer in Economics at the Open University of Sri Lanka, and Anushan Kapilan, Lead Economist at Verité Research.

In his welcome address, the President of the OPA emphasised that Sri Lanka was at a critical juncture in its economic recovery journey where sustained reforms, effective implementation, and collective national commitment are essential to achieving long-term stability, resilience and inclusive growth. He noted that the country had experienced one of the most severe economic crises in its history with the economy contracting by 7.8 percent in 2022 and a further 11.5 percent in 2023, resulting in significant economic and social challenges.

Delivering his introductory remarks Bhanu Wijeyaratne, Vice President of the OPA and Chairman of the National Issues Committee, underscored the need to move beyond short-term economic stabilisation towards a comprehensive agenda of structural transformation. He observed that the economic crisis had revealed deep-rooted weaknesses within the economy, including persistent fiscal pressures, rising public debt, foreign exchange limitations, and insufficient diversification of the export base. He stressed that addressing these challenges through strategic reforms, institutional strengthening and long-term economic planning would be essential to establishing a more resilient and competitive economy.

While acknowledging recent positive developments, including improved inflation management, tourism recovery and signs of economic stabilisation, Wijeyaratne stressed the need to advance reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal discipline, enhancing productivity, improving competitiveness, developing human capital and reinforcing governance and institutional effectiveness.

He further highlighted the important role of professionals, businesses, academia and other stakeholders in contributing to evidence-based dialogue and supporting Sri Lanka’s journey towards a resilient, inclusive and sustainable economic future.

Delivering the keynote presentation, Dr. Harsha Aturupane provided a comprehensive assessment of Sri Lanka’s economic prospects within the broader context of global economic transformation. He argued that Sri Lanka functioned as a small open economy whose performance is significantly influenced by developments in the global marketplace. External factors could not be controlled, and the country must strengthen its domestic capacity and resilience to respond effectively to international economic shifts, he noted.

Tracing the evolution of global economic systems, Dr. Aturupane highlighted the transition from ideological divisions between state-controlled and market-oriented economies towards increasingly pragmatic approaches focused on growth, competitiveness and development. He noted that Sri Lanka’s own economic journey reflects a similar evolution, with contemporary policy debates now centred on practical solutions for sustainable economic progress.

The presentation also examined the transformative impact of globalisation. Dr. Aturupane observed that global economic integration had enabled several East Asian economies, including South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, to achieve remarkable economic advancement through export-led growth strategies. Sri Lanka similarly benefited from this process through the expansion of its apparel industry and increased integration into global value chains.

Turning to Sri Lanka’s recovery programme, Dr. Aturupane emphasised that the ongoing stabilisation process should be viewed as a national programme supported by the International Monetary Fund rather than solely as an IMF initiative. He observed that strong worker remittances, improved tourism earnings, enhanced government revenue mobilisation and prudent import management have contributed significantly to economic stabilisation.

Despite this progress, he cautioned that rebuilding foreign exchange reserves and meeting future debt obligations remain major challenges. He underscored the need to strengthen export performance, attract investment and generate sustainable foreign exchange earnings to ensure long-term economic resilience.

The discussion also focused on monetary stability, inflation management and exchange-rate policy. Dr. Aturupane stressed that maintaining price stability was fundamental to sustainable growth and household welfare, while sound monetary policy remains essential for preserving economic confidence.

Looking beyond stabilisation, he argued that Sri Lanka must transition towards a broader economic transformation agenda. Sustainable growth, he noted, will depend on expanding productive capacity through investment, technological advancement, innovation, skills development and structural reforms.

Among the key constraints identified was the high cost of energy, which continues to affect competitiveness and investment attractiveness. Dr. Aturupane emphasised the importance of improving efficiency and affordability within the energy sector to enhance Sri Lanka’s business environment.

He further highlighted the social dimensions of the crisis, noting the rise in poverty and economic vulnerability among households. Strengthening social protection systems and ensuring inclusive growth, he argued, must remain central components of the national development agenda.

Another critical challenge identified was Sri Lanka’s demographic transition. With an ageing population, outward migration and evolving labour market dynamics, the country is increasingly confronting labour shortages in several sectors. Dr. Aturupane suggested that greater automation, increased labour-force participation and strategic workforce planning would be necessary to address these emerging realities.

Concluding his presentation, he emphasised the need to improve governance, strengthen institutions, enhance competitiveness and create an enabling environment for private sector investment. Sri Lanka’s future success, he noted, will depend on its ability to move decisively beyond crisis management towards a development model founded on resilience, innovation, productivity and inclusive growth.

Dr. Achinthya Koswatta reiterated the importance of policy consistency and predictability in fostering investment and industrial development. She observed that frequent policy changes create uncertainty and discourage long-term investment decisions, whereas stable and coherent policy frameworks build confidence and support sustainable economic transformation.

Meanwhile, Anushan Kapilan highlighted the substantial progress achieved in restoring macroeconomic stability following the recent crisis. He noted significant improvements in fiscal performance, including increased government revenue, reduced reliance on debt financing and a historically low fiscal deficit.

He further observed that public debt levels are declining faster than anticipated, economic growth has exceeded expectations and inflation has been brought under control more rapidly than forecast. Nevertheless, he cautioned that the recovery remains uneven, particularly within the industrial sector and that many households have yet to experience a meaningful improvement in living standards.

The seminar was expertly coordinated by Eng. Chamil Edirimuni, Vice President of the OPA and Chairman of the Seminars, Workshops and Programmes Committee, while the technical moderation and interactive discussion session were facilitated by Bhanu Wijeyaratne, Vice President of the OPA and Chairman of the National Issues Committee.

The event was attended by Tisara De Silva, President-Elect of the OPA, Eng. Ravi Rupasinghe, General Secretary, Past Presidents, members of the Executive Council, representatives of the General Forum and professionals representing a wide range of disciplines.

The seminar concluded with a vibrant exchange of ideas and perspectives, reaffirming the importance of evidence-based policy dialogue, institutional collaboration and collective national commitment in advancing Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, resilience and sustainable growth.

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Her roots run deep in Sri Lanka

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Samantha Kay: Now based in the UK Samantha’s biggest passion is helping people, especially women, build confidence and believe in themselves Today, her focus is on radio, podcasting and coaching women Whenever she visits Sri Lanka, she says she loves spending time on the beautiful south coast, especially Hikkaduwa and Mirissa She released a song with 90s music icon Angie Brown, which reached No. 9 in the UK Club Charts

Yes, for UK-based presenter and artiste Samantha Kay, home is where the heart – and the roots – are. And her roots run deep in Sri Lanka.

In an exclusive interview with The Island, Samantha says “I’m proud to be Sri Lankan. My mum is from Kandy and my dad is from Colombo, so Sri Lanka has always held a very special place in my heart.

“Whenever I visit Sri Lanka, I love spending time on the beautiful south coast, especially Hikkaduwa and Mirissa. It’s somewhere I always feel connected to my roots and completely at peace.”

Now living in Bournemouth, on the south coast of England, where, she says, she is lucky to be close to some of the UK’s most beautiful beaches, including the iconic Sandbanks, Samantha has built a career that refuses to fit into one box.

She is a radio presenter, podcast host, singer-songwriter, personal trainer and life coach.

“I genuinely love the variety because every role allows me to connect with people and, hopefully, make a positive difference in someone’s day.”

Of course, music has taken her far.

One of her proudest achievements, she says, was releasing a song with 90s music icon Angie Brown, which reached No. 9 in the UK Club Charts.

She also reached the final stages of The X Factor and performed at Wembley Stadium in front of thousands.

Beyond music, Samantha competed in bikini bodybuilding across the UK, winning several titles. “It taught me discipline, resilience and self-belief,” she recalls.

Today, her focus is on radio, podcasting and coaching women. Her podcast encourages people to live life on their own terms rather than feeling pressured to follow society’s expectations.

Says Samantha: “Whether someone is single, changing careers, travelling solo or simply trying to find their purpose, I want them to know that it’s never too late to create a life that feels authentic. If you’ve ever felt like you don’t fit into the box, maybe you were never meant to.”

Samantha Kay also spent a year in Dubai, performing at five-star hotels, including FIVE, and coaching at the iconic outdoor gym on Palm Jumeirah.

“I taught strength and conditioning classes, and hosted wellness retreats, combining my passion for music, health and inspiring others.”

However, with family matters calling her back to the UK, she made the choice to return. “Family comes first,” she says.

Looking ahead, Samantha plans to grow her radio and podcast work, release more music, and expand her wellness retreats.

“My biggest passion is helping people, especially women, build confidence and believe in themselves,” she says.

“Wherever my career takes me, I hope to continue inspiring others to live with courage, kindness and authenticity, while never forgetting my Sri Lankan roots.”

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