News
Fitch Downgrades Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to ‘CC’
FitchRatings has downgraded Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CC’, from ‘CCC’, and has affirmed the Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR at ‘RD’ (Restricted Default). Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks to ratings of ‘CCC+’ or below.
Fitch has also removed the Long-Term Local-Currency IDR from Under Criteria Observation, on which it was placed on 14 July 2022, following the publication of the updated Sovereign Rating Criteria.A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Challenging Domestic Financing Outlook:Sri Lanka continues to service its local-currency debt, but the downgrade of the Long-Term Local-Currency IDR reflects our view that a local-currency debt default is probable, in view of an untenably high domestic interest payment/revenue ratio, high interest costs, tight domestic financing conditions and rising local-currency debt/GDP in the context of high domestic fiscal financing requirements, which authorities forecast at about 8% of GDP in 2022.
According to authorities, domestic interest payments in 8M22 were LKR718.8 billion, taking the domestic interest/revenue ratio to an estimated 56% in 8M22; the highest among sovereigns rated ‘CCC+’ and below. Reliance on central bank financing has increased, as domestic options are limited. Domestic debt rose to about 53% of government debt by end-July 2022, according to official provisional data. Treasury bill issuance has been increasing. We expect a local debt restructuring would aim to maintain financial system stability, for example, by extending maturities or lowering coupon payments, rather than a reduction in face value. Sri Lanka continues to service its local-currency debt.
External Debt Restructuring:The sovereign remains in default on foreign-currency obligations and has initiated a debt restructuring arrangement with official and private external creditors.The Ministry of Finance issued a statement on 12 April 2022 that it had suspended normal debt servicing of several categories of external debt, including bonds issued in international capital markets, foreign currency-denominated loan agreements and credit facilities with commercial banks and institutional lenders.
Fitch downgraded the Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR to ‘RD’ following the expiry of the 30-day grace period on coupon payments that were due on 18 April 2022. A staff level agreement with the IMF was reached on 1 September for USD2.9 billion, for 48 months, under the Extended Fund Facility. The facility will not be approved until Sri Lanka has implemented agreed actions, financing assurances have been received from official creditors and good-faith efforts have been made to reach agreement with private creditors. The timing of completion of the external debt restructuring remains uncertain.
Banking Sector Faces Tight Liquidity:Sri Lankan banks’ access to foreign-currency funding is constrained by the sovereign default. Any local-currency debt restructuring would elevate funding and liquidity stress, given the predominance of local-currency funding, at 74% of the total, and large holdings of local currency-denominated government securities. A restructuring could necessitate recapitalisation by the government, though further regulatory forbearance measures could keep banks compliant with regulatory minimums on a reported basis, however, underlying capital positions could stay weak.
Budget Aims for Fiscal Consolidation:In the 2023 budget authorities aim to lower the deficit to 9.8% of GDP in 2022 and 7.9% of GDP in 2023, factoring in high revenue growth and a pickup in spending. It also aims to raise government revenue to 15% of GDP by 2025 and reduce public sector debt to no more than 100% of GDP over the medium term, in line with the IMF’s target of a primary surplus of 2.3% of GDP by 2025. We expect a contraction in GDP in 2023 and so are less optimistic on the government’s fiscal consolidation path. We expect general government debt/GDP to reach around 109% by end-2022.
Political Risks Weigh on Fiscal Outlook:Political instability could threaten reform implementation. The government’s parliamentary position appears strong, but the government lacks public support. This increases the risk of further destabilising protests if economic conditions do not improve or reforms generate public opposition. President Wickremesinghe was prime minister in the previous administration under President Rajapaksa, who was brought down by protests. Parliament and the government also remain dominated by politicians who are affiliated with the Rajapaksa family.
High Inflation: Inflation is high, although it has declined from its September peak of 69.8% as measured by the Colombo Consumer Price Index. We expect headline inflation to fall further in 2023 on easing domestic supply conditions, lower food prices and the impact of policy rate hikes. Risks remain, from a potential commodity-price shock, particularly owing to the war in Ukraine. Financing from the Central Bank has been a key funding source for the government, but a new Central Bank Act, may limit such financing in the future. We believe rate hikes have peaked, after a policy rate hike of 950bp in 2022.
Economy Contracting:Sri Lanka’s economy contracted by a sharp 4.8% yoy in 1H22 and we expect a full-year GDP contraction of 6.0%. There is still uncertainty about the pace of the country’s economic outlook in 2023, partly because the timing of the external debt restructuring is unknown. We forecast growth to contract by 2.2% in 2023 then to pick up in 2024 under our baseline.
News
Construction of Jet A-1 Aviation fuel pipeline and new oil tank complex at Muthurajawela begins under President’s patronage
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said that the Government’s objective is to maintain a strong state presence in the energy market while providing an efficient service to the people, adding that significant progress has been achieved towards this objective over the past two years and that a strong energy market that does not place a burden on the people is now being built in Sri Lanka.
The President made these remarks on Friday (02) morning while attending the commencement of construction of the Jet A-1 pipeline system of the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) and two new oil storage tank systems belonging to the CPC and the Ceylon Petroleum Storage Terminal Limited (CPSTL).
The projects are being implemented in line with the Government’s national objective of developing infrastructure in the energy sector, with the aim of ensuring the security of aviation fuel supplies, reducing supply costs and providing the capacity required to meet future demand for aviation fuel.
A dedicated pipeline and associated tank complex are being constructed to connect Muthurajawela with the Bandaranaike International Airport in Katunayake, with the aim of meeting the future demand of the country’s aviation sector, ensuring the security of aviation fuel supplies and reducing transportation costs.
Construction has commenced on five new Jet A-1 fuel storage tanks with a total capacity of 92,000 cubic metres. These comprise two large Jet A-1 tanks, each with a capacity of 30,000 cubic metres; two medium-sized tanks, each with a capacity of 15,000 cubic metres; and an additional tank with a capacity of 2,000 cubic metres. The fuel supply pipeline system will be connected to the airport through a 21-kilometre-long underground pipeline with a diameter of 10 inches from the Muthurajawela tank complex. The project is scheduled for completion within 30 months.
Meanwhile, as part of ongoing efforts to strengthen and expand storage and infrastructure facilities in the petroleum industry, the Ceylon Petroleum Storage Terminal Limited (CPSTL) commenced construction today of three new storage tanks at the Muthurajawela Terminal.
Upon completion, the three-tank system, comprising two tanks with a capacity of 15,000 cubic metres each and one tank with a capacity of 10,000 cubic metres, will provide an additional total storage capacity of 40,000 cubic metres.
This will further enhance the petroleum storage capacity of the terminal and support the continued development of the country’s petroleum infrastructure. The project has a contractual period of 18 months and is scheduled for completion in April 2028.
The tanks are being constructed in compliance with relevant international standards and recognised industry best practices, ensuring enhanced safety, reliability and operational efficiency. The additional storage capacity will strengthen the country’s fuel reserves, improve operational flexibility and support the reliable and uninterrupted distribution of fuel products to meet the country’s growing energy requirements.
Minister of Ports and Civil Aviation and Minister of Energy Anura Karunathilaka said,
“We are now in an era of energy transition. The world is rapidly moving towards the use of clean energy. The use of electric vehicles is very important in this regard, and our country is also now moving in that direction.
The use of solar energy is also important. We expect to add 1,200 megawatts of solar power capacity to the national grid by 2029.
As a country, we must focus not only on controlling fuel prices but also on controlling fuel consumption. The public also has a major responsibility in this regard.
It is particularly important to change our patterns of energy consumption. Greater energy security can be achieved by avoiding periods of high energy demand, shifting towards electricity use and using fuel-efficient vehicles, particularly electric vehicles.”
Chairman of the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation D. J. Rajakaruna said,
“We faced a major challenge due to the war in the Middle East. However, with the intervention of the President, relief was provided to the people and the situation was managed very effectively.
As a result, while diesel prices in the global market increased by 91%, the increase in Sri Lanka was only around 39.5%. While petrol prices in the global market increased by 80%, the increase in Sri Lanka was only around 41%.
Despite providing fuel at lower prices in this manner, the Corporation has recorded a profit of Rs. 28 billion this year. We also recorded a profit of Rs. 36 billion last year.
This may raise the question of why fuel prices are not being reduced when there are such profits.
However, we have used those profits to commence a number of infrastructure development projects at the institution.
These include adding the capacity of 11 tanks, including the construction of six tanks that had previously been abandoned, to increase fuel storage capacity; modernising our oil-filling section, which is more than 90 years old, and establishing a gantry system similar to that at Muthurajawela; laying two new pipelines for unloading fuel from the port to Kolonnawa; constructing a new pipeline to transport Jet A-1 fuel to Katunayake; and upgrading the pipeline system and laying new pipelines, among many other projects.
We are implementing these projects using those profits. Therefore, we have returned the benefits to the people through these investments.”
The Minister of Science and Technology, Professor Chrishantha Abeysena; Deputy Minister of Energy, Arkam Ilyas; Member of Parliament Kumara Jayakody; Secretary to the Ministry of Energy and Senior Additional Secretary to the President, Russell Aponso; foreign ambassadors; government officials including officials of the Ministry of Energy and the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation; and representatives of Sinopec were among those present at the occasion.
President’s Media Division (PMD)
News
Lanka enters new phase of prosecutions as hurdles clear
MONETABRIEF –The prosecution of high-profile individuals from the former Rajapaksa administrations is set to escalate this month with the clearing of legal hurdles and administrative bottlenecks, according to officials involved in the process.
Former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s attempt to secure an order preventing his arrest in connection with the Easter Sunday massacre was turned down by the Court of Appeal on Thursday.
An overseas travel ban has been in operation against Rajapaksa since June, but the Criminal Investigations Department made no move to question him. He instead filed a writ application seeking an order preventing his possible arrest.
President of the Court of Appeal Rohantha Abeysuriya noted that the court would not interfere with the investigative process. Any attempt by the court would amount to an obstruction of the investigation.
In an unrelated case, the same court rejected an application by opposition legislator Dilith Jayaweera seeking the quashing of a contempt charge filed against him by the Fort magistrate. The charges against Jayaweera and a few other opposition politicians are expected to be taken up in the coming week.
Jayaweera and other opposition politicians — Wimal Weerawansa, Udaya Gammanpila, Sugeeshwara Bandara, and Asanka Navaratne
— were hauled up over their remarks relating to the arrest of Suresh Sallay, the former head of the State Intelligence Service.
SLPP academic Mahinda Pathirana is also charged over his public comments about Sallay’s arrest in February under the draconian Prevention of Terrorism Act.
Former president Mahinda Rajapaksa’s son, legislator Namal Rajapaksa, is already in remand custody following his arrest in connection with three cases of bribery and money laundering relating to the 2013 Airbus deal and the Krrish property development in Colombo.
Although Namal has been granted bail in the Airbus money laundering charge, he is in custody until October 13 over the bribery charge relating to the same Airbus transaction. His arrest is under a provision of the Anti-Corruption Act that does not allow a magistrate to grant bail unless under exceptional circumstances.
Meanwhile, his mother Shiranthi Rajapaksa, who had been asked to report to the Financial Crimes Investigations Division on September 24, was a no-show and was yet to return from Singapore.
She had travelled overseas on September 16, and a family spokesman said she was handed the FCID summons at the departure lounge of Bandaranaike International Airport just before she boarded a flight to Singapore.
At the time, the family spokesman said she was due to return in three days.
“We will see greater momentum in the legacy cases in the coming weeks,” an official involved in the prosecutions said.
“We have cleared the legal hurdles to press ahead with more arrests,” he said.
“We are working on a few administrative issues which will be resolved very soon.”
The controversial prosecution of former President Ranil Wickremesinghe is dragging on without him being formally indicted since his arrest in August last year. The Fort magistrate has listed the case again for November 11, when the Attorney-General is expected to report on his decision regarding action against Wickremesinghe.
News
Police warn: Court evaders face property seizure
Police have reminded the public that courts have the power to take legal action against individuals who evade arrest or remain in hiding after warrants have been issued against them.
Police said that under Section 60 of the Code of Criminal Procedure Act No. 15 of 1979, a court could issue a written proclamation requiring a person evading arrest under a warrant to appear at a specified place and time.
The proclamation must allow the person at least 30 days to appear before court, Police said.
If the person fails to appear even after the proclamation has been issued, the court may take further action under Section 61 of the Act.
This includes issuing an order for the attachment of the movable or immovable property belonging to the person concerned.Police issued the reminder highlighting the legal measures available against persons who deliberately evade arrest and remain in hiding after warrants have been issued.
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