Features
Europeans Must Learn from Asians Instead of Lecturing Them
My Talk with Kishore Mahbubani Part 2
by Nilantha Ilangamuwa
Kishore Mahbubani’s insights into Western narratives about Asia reveal significant misconceptions that have shaped global politics. In addressing the question of how these narratives influence international relations, he draws a clear distinction between American and European viewpoints. He critiques the American narrative for its narrow focus on the “China challenge,” arguing that it obscures a broader understanding of Asia: “The Americans don’t realise that there are 4.8 billion people in Asia, and China is only 1.4 billion.” He emphasises the need for a more comprehensive approach, stating that “they have to understand the rest of Asia too, and work with the rest of Asia.”
Mahbubani highlights that most Asian countries are willing to collaborate with China in various capacities. This collaboration is often met with resistance when the U.S. attempts to force a binary choice between allegiance to China or the United States. He reflects, “When the Americans try to force the Asian countries to choose between China and the United States, there’s resistance.” This dynamic exemplifies the misunderstandings that hinder effective dialogue and cooperation.
Turning his attention to European narratives, Mahbubani argues that they should be capitalising on the economic opportunities that Asia presents. He notes that the largest growth in the middle class will occur in China, India, and ASEAN nations, stating, “You know, the combined population of China, India, and ASEAN is 3.5 billion people.” He highlights the astonishing growth of the middle class in these regions, pointing out that only 150 million people enjoyed middle-class living standards in 2000. By 2020, that number had surged to 1.5 billion, with projections estimating it will reach between 2.5 and 3 billion by 2030. Mahbubani asserts that “if the Europeans were smart, they would learn how to engage Asia and work with Asia.”
However, he expresses disappointment that “the European Union countries do not know how to be humble” and often prefer to lecture Asian nations rather than collaborating with them. He views this as a significant misstep, stating, “This is very, very unwise.” His assessment includes a striking statistic that should alarm European leaders: “In 1980, the combined European Union GNP was ten times bigger than China. Now, it’s about the same size. And by 2050, the European Union will be half the size of China.” He cautions, “When you go from being 10 times larger to becoming half the size, you got to learn how to be humble.”
As the world moves towards a multipolar order, Mahbubani anticipates challenges in achieving global cooperation. He notes that the geopolitical contest between the U.S. and China is likely to continue for the next decade, as many in America feel they have “about 10 years to stop China.” Mahbubani critiques this urgency, arguing that it is “unwise” and that finding ways to coexist with China is essential. He emphasises this need in his book, Has China Won?, where he outlines the benefits of constructive engagement with the rising power.
Furthermore, he points to the emergence of other great powers, including India and Russia, while highlighting the European Union’s unique position: “It’s an economic giant and a geopolitical dwarf.” This phrase encapsulates the need for Europe to reassess its approach in a world where multiple powers coexist. Mahbubani urges Asian nations to demonstrate their ability to navigate this multipolar landscape, asserting, “We have to learn to live with a multipolar world.”
When asked about the potential for conflict between the U.S. and China, Mahbubani expresses cautious optimism, stating, “I’m reasonably confident that there’ll be no war between United States and China.” He explains that in a nuclear conflict, there are no true winners—only mutual devastation. “In a nuclear war, there’s no winner and a loser. There’s a loser and a loser.” He elaborates that even if China were to lose major cities, the U.S. would not accept the catastrophic loss of cities like New York or Washington, D.C. Therefore, he argues, while a vigorous contest between the two nations will continue, outright war is improbable.
Transitioning to the situation in Ukraine, Mahbubani shares his perspective on how the conflict could have been avoided. He believes that American leaders should have heeded the advice of strategic thinkers like George Kennan and Henry Kissinger. He recalls Kennan’s warning about NATO expansion, which he deemed a “mistake” that would “alienate and anger Russia.” He asserts that Kennan, a key strategist during the Cold War, understood the long-term implications of U.S. foreign policy. Mahbubani states, “The American and the European leaders, especially, don’t think long-term and don’t think strategically.”
He observes that while the Ukraine war has strengthened U.S. influence in Europe, it has not benefitted the European Union in the long term. “I don’t see how this Ukraine war has helped the European Union,” he notes, asserting that the EU must acknowledge the necessity of living with Russia for the next century or more. “They have to stand up to Russia,” he acknowledges, while also emphasising the importance of seeking peaceful resolutions. “Certainly, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is illegal, and we should condemn the Russian invasion. But at the same time, we should also try to find a solution for peace that takes into consideration Russia’s interests.”
Through his candid analysis, Mahbubani calls for a deeper understanding of global geopolitics, urging a shift from outdated narratives to one that embraces cooperation, humility, and a recognition of the multi-dimensional realities of the modern world. He encourages leaders and citizens alike to engage with Asia as a vital partner in shaping the future, rather than viewing it through a lens of fear and misunderstanding.
In my recent conversation with George Friedman (Sunday Island, October 6, 2024), the topic of U.S. strategies regarding Russia emerged, where Friedman indicated that the U.S. plans to prolong the conflict, positioning it as beneficial for America in the long run. In response, I probed Kishore Mahbubani about this perspective, and he expressed a more cautious viewpoint on warfare. “Wars are always unwise,” he stated, emphasising that they often lead to “unanticipated consequences.” Instead of pursuing prolonged conflict, Mahbubani advocates for finding avenues to dampen wars. He emphasises that the world’s most pressing issue is climate change, arguing, “If you ask what is the most important thing the world needs to fight today, it is climate change. You cannot fight climate change if you’re too busy fighting over territory.”
He illustrates this point with a powerful metaphor, describing our shared global predicament: “You are all now passengers on the same boat. If the boat is sinking, what’s the point of arguing about who’s got the bigger cabin?” This analogy accentuates the futility of territorial disputes when faced with existential challenges that require collective action.
Transitioning to the United Nations (UN), I asked Mahbubani about his insights regarding its credibility and effectiveness, especially in light of Western nations’ influence. Drawing on his experiences as Singapore’s ambassador to the UN, he asserted the urgent need for reforms, particularly regarding the Security Council.
He reiterated his belief that India should secure a permanent seat, stating, “I wrote a column in the Financial Times saying it’s time for the UK to give up its permanent seat in the UN Security Council to India.” He elaborated on this by noting that the UN’s founding principles intended the veto to be held by “the great powers of today, and not the great powers of yesterday,” asserting, “The UK is a great power of yesterday. India is a great power of today and tomorrow.”
Mahbubani further argued that it would be in the best interest of the UK to “pass on their veto to India,” noting that the UK has largely ceased to use its veto power due to its diminished global standing. He remarked, “The British know that if they use their veto, countries will say, who are you? Why should you use the veto?” Additionally, he critiqued the UK’s political landscape, stating, “When they elect prime ministers who are jokers and jokes, you should first take care of yourself and not try to save the world.”
Regarding the broader challenges facing the UN, Mahbubani expressed concern over the weakening of the organisation, attributing this trend to the actions of the United States and its allies. He emphasised in his book The Great Convergence that “it has been a mistake for the Western countries to try and weaken the United Nations and the multilateral system.” He highlights the statistical reality that the West makes up only 12% of the global population, arguing that minorities in a global village should prefer a rules-based order to avoid chaos and anarchy.
In light of these dynamics, he cited former President Bill Clinton’s observation: “If the United States is going to be number one forever, it can do whatever it wants to do. But if the United States is not going to be number one forever, and may become number two, then it’s in America’s national interest to strengthen multilateral rules.” Mahbubani is adamant that the U.S. and Western nations must recalibrate their approach, shifting from undermining the UN to strengthening it, a perspective he urges all nations from the Global South to communicate collectively to the West.
As we discussed the emergence of alternative organisations, I asked if he believed this was the reason for the growing prominence of BRICS. Mahbubani affirmed that the inadequacies of traditional multilateral organisations have led to the formation of alternatives. He acknowledged the significance of the G20 but noted its current paralysis. “Clearly, many of the global multilateral organisations are not functioning well, and there are all kinds of alternatives developing,” he said. He also mentioned regional agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as part of this shift towards new forms of multilateral governance.
Addressing allegations against China regarding debt traps in nations like Myanmar and Sri Lanka, as well as countries in Africa, Mahbubani pushed back against these narratives, citing Deborah Brautigam, an American academic who has provided evidence against the “myth of the debt trap.” He pointed out that “the bulk of African debt is not to China; it’s to the West,” emphasising the historical context in which African nations have been politically and economically colonised by Western powers. Mahbubani contended that many African countries appreciate China’s involvement because it offers them a choice in their partnerships. He stated, “If they don’t have a choice, then they get bullied,” highlighting that African nations value China’s presence as it enhances their bargaining power with Western countries.
Finally, I enquired about the significance of peace between India and China, given the existing border tensions. Mahbubani highlighted the importance of cooperation between these two Asian giants, lamenting the current state of their relations. “Many of us in Southeast Asia are saddened that relations between China and India today are not good,” he remarked. He invoked former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s sentiment that “the sky is big enough for China and India to grow together,” expressing hope that both nations can learn to manage their differences effectively.
He also voiced a similar hope for India and Pakistan, advocating for normalised trade relations between them. “It’s shocking that even though Southeast Asia is in ethnic, cultural, religious, linguistic terms, much more diverse than South Asia, we have much more successful regional cooperation,” he observed, urging South Asian countries to learn from ASEAN’s successful models.
Concluded
The just concluded presidential election in the US could very well have been the tightest ever such contest in the world’s ‘mightiest democracy’ in recent decades. With some reservations it could be said that the democratic system of government triumphed once again in the US and that the ‘popular will’ asserted itself.
It would have been preferable if the President of the US was elected only by the ‘popular vote’ or the majority of votes she or he directly polls countrywide but unfortunately this is not the case. The Electoral College (EC) system gets in the way of this happening effectively and it is gladdening to note that this issue is being addressed by the more reflective sections in the US. It is time for this question to receive the complete attention of the US’ voting public.
Hopefully, the ‘pluses’ and ‘minuses’ of the EC system would be fully examined by the US public in the days ahead. Right now, critics of the system could not be faulted for seeing it as distorting somewhat the ‘popular will’ or the overall preference of the US voting public in its choice of President.
The close contests between the contenders in what are termed the ‘Swing States’ helped highlight some notable limitations in the EC system. It ought to be plain to see that the requirement that the ‘winner takes all’ of the EC votes in these states needs urgent questioning and rectification.
However, the US and the world’s thriving democracies could take heart from the fact that there has been a legitimate transition of power in the US in the most democratic of ways possible at present for the US. Considering this it could be said that the US is continuing as a frontline, vibrant democratic state.
Not to be forgotten too is the fact that the elections to the US House of Representatives and the Senate have also been simultaneously completed on the basis of laid down legal procedures. That is, elections to all tiers of government have been concluded, testifying to the fact that the ‘democratic health’ of the US is unquestionable.
‘Democracies’ come in numerous forms and it is open to question whether a rigorous definition of the term could be given. Even some of the most authoritarian, autocratic and theocratic states prefer to call themselves ‘democracies’. At first glance, these considerations could lead to some bafflement but it could be stated that, generally, it is only those governing systems that lead to the total empowerment of people that could be considered democratic.
Defenders of and apologists for authoritarian and dictatorial regimes could shoot back on hearing the above observations that since their regimes satisfy the material needs of their populations, their states fully qualify for democratic status.
But the defenders of democracy, correctly understood, may beg to defer. The total empowerment of individuals and publics is realized only when the latter enjoy fundamental rights and freedoms, as enshrined in the UN Declaration of Human Rights, for example.
Accordingly, a regime that does not permit its people total Freedom of Speech and Thought, for instance, could in no way be seen as empowering its people. A regime that does not allow its citizenry the latter rights is repressive and undemocratic and is out of step with democratic development. In fact it is the latter process that even facilitates the material empowerment of publics.
Assessed on the basis of the above yardsticks, the US and other Western states, where fundamental freedoms are generally ‘alive and well’ could be considered democratic although absolute or perfect democracies could nowhere be found. Democracy is a process and it needs to be enriched and given greater depth, going forward. The process is long term and one which progressively evolves.
Besides the above considerations, advanced democracies are also characterized by multiple political parties that contest for power within the parameters of democratic principles. States that lack these essential attributes could not be considered democratic.
Going forward, states East and West need to be guided by the above principles because minus the multi-faceted empowerment of people, democratic development would not be possible. Seen from this viewpoint, it would be self-defeating for government leaders of the South in particular to consider opposition parties as inessential.
They need to also consider that there is no question of turning back the hands of time and reverting to strait-jacketed, one-party states of the Soviet era. These formations were thrown out by the relevant peoples themselves as incapable of ‘delivering the goods’ most needed by them.
The recent US presidential election campaign speeches were, for the most part, bereft of any substantive content. As a result, it’s difficult to predict as to the specific directions in which US foreign policy would evolve in the days ahead.
However, while a less pluralistic and ethnically accommodative US could be expected under Trump, a more inward looking foreign policy could very well be on the cards as well. A future Trump administration could see a lesser need to be committed to the Ukraine, for instance, and is likely to pursue more of an isolationist foreign policy which could see a gradual friction build-up between the US and its Western allies. Consequently, the cause of democratic development worldwide could suffer.
However, during one of her closing election addresses Presidential contender Kamala Harris left the world with a nugget of wisdom or two which would need to be treasured by policy planners and governments worldwide. She said, among other things, that one’s opponent should not necessarily be seen as one’s enemy. The latter should be spoken to in a most constructive fashion at the same table and be seen as having something essential to contribute towards nation-building.
The above is a stateswoman like pronouncement. If the international community is desirous of ushering a more peaceful world, Harris’ words would need to be dwelt on and consistently acted on. They come at a time when inhumanity internationally is more the norm rather than the exception.
All the contestants, vying for the title of Miss Universe 2024, are having an awesome time in the city of Mexico. Sri Lanka is represented by Melloney Dassanayaka and she is doing great in the scene over there, according to reports coming my way. Says Melloney: “I’m having an amazing time in Mexico City, and meeting up with these beautiful ladies is incredible.”
She went on to say that she is super grateful for her incredible roommate, Miss Universe Canada! “She’s kind, funny, caring, and a true sweetheart who made this long pageant month, away from family, so much brighter.
“With her talent as a TV host, and her amazing spirit, I couldn’t have asked for a better companion on this journey. “Huge thanks to Miss Universe @missuniverse for connecting me with all these beautiful souls!”
Plenty of smiles for the cameraman
Melloney has also come in for a lot of praise on social media, with many wishing her ‘good luck’, as well as describing her as…
* Sooo beautiful
* Awww she is cute
* So pretty. Good luck
* Wow! She deserves the crown
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- Fun time with Sri Lanka in the centre
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- Sri Lanka and Estonia lead the way
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- Sri Lanka and Canada roommates
The beautiful ladies, in the city of Mexico, are now busy rehearsing and getting themselves fine-tuned for the grand finale, scheduled for next Saturday, 16th November.
By the way, the four top beauty pageants in the world, for women, are (1) Miss Universe, (2) Miss World, (3) Miss Earth, and (4) Miss International.
by Chandrasena Maliyadde
I have worked with all the Executive Presidents, except President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, in different capacities during my tenure in the public service and even afterwards. The way they managed or rather mis-managed the economy was different from one to the other. The late President Ranasinghe Premadasa’s management style was unique, flawless and foolproof. He monitored and followed up each and every decision he made.
We used to keep notepads and pens beside our land phones. Mobile phones were not freely available at the time. The phone could ring any time after 4.00 am. The President would direct us to attend to a particular matter. By 10.00 am a second call would come from him, inquiring about progress.
With this system of monitoring and follow up he was able to establish 200 garment factories in the rural countryside, implement the first-ever government sponsored poverty alleviation programme, Janasaviya, one million Housing Programme, Gam Udawa Programme and the Rural Road Rehabilitation Programme within a period as short as four years.
The aforesaid anecdote will serve to show the importance of monitoring and follow-up.
During the past six weeks or so, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) has held meetings with all key Ministries and several other organizations and outlined his government’s plans and expectations. He gave directives related to Agriculture, Education, Power and Energy, Rural Development, Public Service, Exports, Tourism, Industry, Business and Enterprises. the President has underscored the urgency of accelerating and swift implementation of development projects. My intention is to examine how much these decisions have been followed up and translated into action. Considering the limitation of space, I decided to select one area to illustrate this i.e. the devastating flood and the havoc it brought a few days back.
On 14 Oct., the President held a meeting with officials to discuss the flood situation and the measures to be taken. The meeting was attended by the Secretaries to the President and Ministries of Finance, Defence and Disaster Management, Director General of Disaster Management Division, Disaster Management Centre National Building Research Organization and Meteorological Department and Senior Assistant Secretary of the National Disaster Relief Service Centre.
The President has emphasized, at this meeting, the need for a specific and sustainable programme to address the recurring flood situation in the country. He noted that frequent flooding requires long-term solutions for effective control.
Since then three weeks have elapsed; Rain has ceased; Flood victims are returning to their homes; No news on the emphasis on specific and sustainable programmes. Maybe it has to be reemphasized when the next disaster strikes. Until then there is no urgency.
Why is a Specific Sustainable Programme important?
Sri Lanka is a blessed island surrounded by Indian Ocean water but, is punished by water – lack of it, as well as abundance of it. “Water is a gift of nature and its management is man’s (of course woman’s as well) responsibility”.
The recent floods, landslides and the inclement weather brought havoc. Occurrence of heavy rainfall, floods and long droughts increased significantly over the recent years. Sri Lanka is being positioned among the top 10 countries at risk of extreme weather events by the Global Climate Risk Index. Floods are common and widespread among the most frequent weather-related disasters in Sri Lanka. Popular and common belief that disasters are natural is misleading. Change of the weather is natural. But the disaster occurs when the weather changes intersects with human activities.
The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) emphasizes that human actions, such as deforestation, urbanization and inadequate infrastructure, worsen the impacts of events like floods, earthquakes and storms. Building in flood-prone areas and settling communities close to rivers and on mountain slopes increases the vulnerability to floods, transforming into a devastating disaster. Inadequate building norms, marginalisation of people and poor choices on land-use planning make natural disasters worse. Change of weather is a given but the disaster that follows can be avoided.
‘Climate Change’ has come to the top of the Agenda on international platforms. Human Activity is the Cause of Increased Greenhouse Gas Concentrations. Over the last century, burning of fossil fuels, like coal and oil (Sri Lanka is notorious for this), has increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Taken together, these miserable and sometimes deadly effects are what have come to be known as climate change. Human activity is the primary driver.
World Bank 2018, South Asia’s Hotspots: The Impact of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Living Standards. South Asia Development Matters has estimated that 87 % of Sri Lanka’s population lives in moderate or severe hotspots for disasters. Nearly half of Sri Lanka’s population lacks disaster preparedness, a key vulnerability factor aggravated by accelerating climate risks.
All the above findings point to the fact that disasters are not free from human intervention. Then disaster management arguably requires human intervention, too. We human beings, that include the agencies responsible for disaster handling, need to prepare a specific and sustainable programme to address the recurring disasters and to minimize the damage caused by them.
It was not reported that any of the agencies present at the meeting with the President held on the 14th has commented or qualified the President’s emphasis for a specific sustainable programme. This does not mean that nothing has happened in the past or no institutional and regulatory arrangements are in place. Sri Lanka is abundant in the solutions and technologies and legal and institutional network required addressing disaster management.
The government introduced the Sri Lanka Disaster Management Act in 2005. The Act provides the legal foundation and strategic directions and proposes an institutional structure and coordination mechanism from national to local levels. A National Council for Disaster Management (NCDM), a high-level inter-ministerial body chaired by the President and a Disaster Management Centre (DMC), was established. Subsequently a separate Ministry for Disaster Management was established.
The National Disaster Management Policy 2013, National Disaster Management Plan (NDMC) 2013- 2017, and National Emergency Operation Plan (NEOP) 2017 have been developed in accordance with the SLDM Act. Several other policies and plans, such as National Climate Change Adaptation Policy and the Plan, Water Conservation policy, Local Government Policy, Flood Protection Ordinance, National Land Use Policy, National Physical Plan and Policy and several sector-specific policies also contribute to Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in the country.
Integrated Water Resources Development: The Way Forward for Sri Lanka to tackle the Climate Crisis-UNDP 04 October 2023 suggests “In moving forward, Sri Lanka requires a two-track approach. First is to invest in our infrastructure. As this requires more funding and time, in parallel, integrated water resource management should be promoted, tapping into Sri Lanka’s 4,000-year-old cascade systems.”
The question is how, when and who would prepare the programme envisaged by the President, follow it up and monitor the progress?
There is already a National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP) for 2022-2030 prepared in 2022 running into over 200 pages with 8 Chapters, 17 Annexures and 13 Figures. This plan guides all Ministries, Departments, Statutory bodies, officials of sub-national administrations (provincial Ministries and district divisional and local government); relevant officers and personnel from Governmental and UN Agencies, INGOs Non-Governmental organizations; civil-society organizations, private sector, and professional organizations in Sri Lanka.
NDMP would throw a lot of lights in preparation of the programme envisaged by the President. Only drawback is “The NDMP aims to set the 2030 strategic direction for Disaster Risk Management in the country, in line with the national development vision of the Government, “Vistas of Prosperity and Splendor”.
A senior officer once told me “Chandre, when you prepare a report don’t worry too much about the content. But, make sure you have the picture of the President or the Minister on the front cover”. Following that saner advice one can replace “Vistas of Prosperity and Splendor” with “A Rich Country-A Beautiful Life”.
There are two other plans (perhaps more) already prepared. One is the ‘National Drought Plan for Sri Lanka’ by the Ministry of Environment in September 2020; the other is the National Emergency Operation Plan (NEOP) formulated by the Disaster Management Centre in 2017.
The President has made decisions; issued directives; plans, policies, agencies, legal and administrative arrangements are in place. I believe that someone with command, clout and the will to organize an inter/multi-disciplinary/agency committee a). To peruse all relevant documents, reports and plans already in place; b). To set a time target and c). To assign the responsibilities to identified agencies/personnel. The Committee would meet from time to time and monitor the progress and provide assistance and instructions to resolve issues that arise during the implementation stage and follow up.
Sri Lanka has rich experience in such arrangements. I remember Secretaries such as Mr. Paskaralingam, Dr. Wickarma Weerasooria, who were known as super secretaries, have revived “Secretaries Committee’ to monitor the progress of directives and decisions made and follow up by resolving issues that arose in implementation. Dr. Lloyd Fernando, as the DG National Planning, facilitated and serviced the Committee. Mr. Dharmasiri Peiris a luminary in the public service, as the Secretary Ministry of Agriculture established a Committee consisting of players at both the centre and the Provincial level to ensure the Agriculture value chain is working smoothly. H. M. G. S. Palihakkara, the most illustrious Foreign Affairs Secretary, established an inter-ministerial Committee to follow up the developments in all the Ministries for the benefit of Sri Lankan Missions abroad as well as the respective Ministries.
This kind of hands-on experience and the experiments would be useful in establishing a mechanism for monitoring and follow up of directives and decisions made by the President.
Monitoring and follow-ups provide concrete evidence of outcomes.
(The writer is former Secretary to the Ministry of Plan Implementation. He can be reached on chandra.maliyadde@gmail.com)
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