Connect with us

Features

Eradicating CKDu From Sri Lanka is Straightforward—What is Preventing it?

Published

on

by Drs. Sunil J. Wimalawansa and Chandra B. Dissanayake
(Prof. of Medicine and Prof. of Geology)

Since identifying chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology (CKDu) in Sri Lanka in the mid-1990s, little progress has been made in aetiology and prevention. Despite the numerous hypotheses and conjectures—with more than 35—none have been thoroughly studied or substantiated as the definitive cause of CKDu.

The development of CKDu necessitates simultaneous exposure to various factors and conditions over an extended period. Hence, it is also called chronic kidney disease of multifactorial origin (CKDmfo). A recent newspaper article suggested that Chinese researchers re-confirmed the lack of association of agrochemicals, heavy metals, or arsenic (common postulated factors) with CKDu, consistent with our and other scientists’ publications over 15 years.

Comparatively, on a per-hectare basis of arable land, New Zealand and numerous other countries employ more than ten-fold the amount of agrochemicals and fertilisers containing heavy metals. Similarly, in Sri Lanka, in hilly country like Nuwara Eliya, and wet zones, farmers extensively utilize inorganic fertilisers, especially phosphates and pesticides—significantly more than in the dry zones. Surprisingly, there is little to no reported incidence of CKDu in these regions.

Research studies on hypothesis-driven causation are needed

The lack of conclusive evidence on CKDu stems from inadequately designed studies that fail to assess causes and test specific hypotheses. No CKDu study has rigorously applied Hill’s criteria for disease causation to distinguish casual association from causation. To address CKDu causes effectively, detailed empirical studies, not just descriptive ones, are essential. [For more details, refer to Hill, A.B., 1965, “The Environment and Disease: Association or Causation?”]

(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14283879].

No credible scientific evidence supports the role of any of the mentioned postulated factors in contributing to or causing CKDu. Definitive conclusions necessitate well-conducted, unbiased studies with proper design and sufficient statistical power to thoroughly assess or rule out the potential effects of heavy metals, algal toxins, and agrochemicals on CKDu.

Critical causative criteria for establishing a link between a factor and a disease include the Strength of the association, Consistency, Specificity, Temporality, Biological gradient, Plausibility, Coherence, and Empirical data (Experiments). The presence of the majority of these factors is necessary to attribute causation. However, most studies on CKDu are heterogeneous and descriptive, offering limited value. Therefore, conducting meta-analyses using such data is scientifically unsound and inappropriate, as they will likely yield misleading conclusions.

Because CKDu arises from forming nanocrystals and nanotubes in kidney tubules and tissues, a more fitting designation would be “CKD of crystal-tubular nephropathy” (CKD-CTN). The accompanying figure illustrates critical factors contributing to the CKD-CTN development (from Wimalwansa & Dissanayake, Euro. J. Med. Res., July 2023: https://rdcu.be/dgagf). (See Figure)

Poorly designed studies generated inconclusive data:

Compartmentalized research and poor study designs consistently fail to address research questions and test hypotheses related to CKDu. This lack of adherence to fundamental scientific principles, along with issues in improper sample collection and data integrity, has resulted in skewed and unreliable conclusions, muddling the progress and analyses of CKDu in the country.

Extrapolating such data to the overall status of CKDu in Sri Lanka and other tropical countries shifts attention away from identifying actual causative factors, proper fund allocation, and implementing essential remedies for CKDu prevention. Biased comments by Chinese scientists, such as ‘aristolochic acid,’ while relevant in rural China, are not pertinent to CKDu (CKD-CTN) in the dry zones of Sri Lanka.

Methodological and conceptual failures:

No conclusive evidence supports agrochemicals (glyphosate) or heavy metals causing CKDu. Claims linking slightly elevated magnesium in drinking water to CKDu lack reliability due to sampling and methodological errors. In contrast, over 750 international research articles establish magnesium as a “renal protector” in humans.

Detecting an isolated elevation of magnesium or extremely low levels of glyphosate in inconsistent studies is insufficient to establish even an association, let alone causation. Such findings meet only one of Hill’s Causation criteria. Inferences from random water samples and two rat studies lack reproducibility and conclusiveness. The flawed extrapolation of this data to assert that glyphosate or magnesium causes CKDu has diverted attention and national research funds to unproductive programmes. The crucial factor in drinking water is the “calcium to magnesium” ratio, not individual components alone.

Glyphosate or other chemicals used in intervention experiments, equivalent to body weight on a kg basis, are “astronomically” high—toxic. Such concentrations do not exist in water or soil under normal conditions. Such concentration exists when an individual ingests concentrated glyphosate. Therefore, conclusions from such experiments are misleading. Any toxicity dependent on the “dose and exposure” and real-world scenarios do not match the extreme concentrations used in intervention experiments.

Studies have consistently lacked rigorousness during sample collection, standardized methodology, and the use of controls. They also lack quality control during analyses and testing hypotheses. Methodological errors, such as smaller sample sizes and a lack of control experiments, introduce random- and Type-2 errors into the data. To obtain accurate insights, examining thousands of properly collected water samples across affected regions is crucial, as is comparing them with comparable but non-affected villages within the same region (e.g., subtractive analysis), even within ‘affected’ villages, pockets with good-quality drinking water (e.g., natural springs), thus clusters of unaffected families. Therefore, calling the entire area as CKDu affecting is a misnomer.

The neglect of already published data

Suppose one uses “CKD” as a keyword in the following URL: one can pull over a dozen research articles illustrating that CKDu is triggered by “natural” causes—hard water (Ca2+), excess phosphate in combination with fluoride” and chronic dehydration.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sunil-Wimalawansa/publications

Peasants experiencing chronic dehydration due to daily exposure to hot climates and nightly alcohol intake, along with drinking water high in Calcium, Carbonate/ Phosphates, and Fluoride ions, etc., create a “conducive internal environment” for the formation of calcium phosphate (CaPO4) crystals within renal tissue. Additionally, hard water chelates glyphosate, eliminating its potential toxicity, if any, whereas fluoride has the opposite effect.

Chronic exposure to excess calcium, carbonate/phosphate (and other anions), and fluoride through the ingestion of hard water over a decade is necessary to induce CKD-CTN. Such extended exposure maintains the mentioned higher ionic concentrations in renal tissues. Chronic dehydration leads to consistently concentrated urine, enabling the precipitation of hydroxy- and oxalate-apatite nano-minerals in the kidneys. This process occurs with or without fluoride, but fluoride stabilizes these nano-mineral crystals, forming fluorapatite resistant to degradation, allowing crystals to grow. Fluorapatite nanocrystals are implicated in causing CKD-CTN, causing fatal renal failure. The detailed mechanism is illustrated in the following article: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3298/7/1/2

The way to prevent and eradicate CKDu:

Consuming potable water and avoiding prolonged dehydration can prevent persistent dehydration-associated CKD-CTN. This concept offers highly cost-effective and straightforward solutions to safeguard peasants, particularly farm laborers. This eliminates silent, deadly disease, without needing expensive medications, interventions, or the construction of dialysis centers and hospitals, which is especially crucial in financially strained circumstances.

Research, including ours, has shown that increasing daily access to clean water significantly reduces CKD-CTN incidence and associated morbidities and premature deaths. Unfortunately, once the disease progresses beyond CKD stage IIIB, the damage becomes irreversible. It leads to hardening and shrinkage of the kidney due to fibrosis—resulting in permanent damage.

The following two published articles provide a detailed methodology and cost-benefit analysis of ways to eradicate CKDu from Sri Lanka:—CKD-CTN.Public health interventions for chronic diseases: cost-benefit modelizations for eradicating chronic kidney disease of multifactorial origin (CKDmfo/ CKDu) from tropical countries. Heliyon 2019;5(10):e02309. DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02309.And Strategic framework for managing non-communicable diseases: Preventing chronic kidney disease of multifactorial origin (CKDmfo/CKDu) as an Example. Chronic Dis Int 2015;2(2 (1018)):1-9 (https://austinpublishinggroup.com/chronic-diseases/fulltext/chronicdiseases-v2-id1018.php).

The direct approaches outlined in the above articles offer ways to mitigate and eradicate CKDu/CKD-CTN in Sri Lanka and other affected countries. Unfortunately, there has been a lack of political will to address the issue. For some, it has become an unscrupulous business. The mentioned scientific papers provide details on how implementing a multi-pronged approach can prevent CKD-CTN, reduce premature deaths, and minimize the socio-economic impact on affected families. For more information. More information in:

Environmental health and preventive medicine 2014;19(6):375-394. DOI: 10.1007/s12199-014-0395-5 (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25239006/).

Critical elements need to eradicate CKD-CTN from Sri Lanka

It is essential to systematically address peasants’ lifestyles and dietary habits, improve micro-nutrition, protect their renal and general health, and mitigate CKD-CTN. In addition to providing potable water, other interventions are also necessary to overcome this forgotten killer. Adhering to such would save the lives of people in CKD-CTN-affected tropical countries. They consume insufficient water due to the unpleasant taste of naturally contaminated hard water. Just because peasants do not have a voice is not an excuse to neglect them by the politicians and the government.

The key to eradicating CKD-CTN is prevention through education, lifestyle changes, and increased consumption of clean water—not in treating renal disease or expanding dialysis centers, hospitals, or transplantation services. To effectively prevent CKD-CTN, providing safe and affordable clean water in the affected and adjacent regions in the entire dry zone is essential rather than solely emphasizing aggressive treatment of end-stage renal diseases.

Historical evidence indicates that ancient Sri Lankan Kingdoms, like Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Dambadeniys, Sigiriya, and Yapahuwa, were relocated, primarily within the dry zonal regions, now affected by CKD-CTN. The reasons for these relocations, whether protecting from invading armies, severe malarial epidemics, or deaths due to CKD-CTN, remain uncertain. Proposals to move the entire North Central Province (NCP) population elsewhere or replace the topsoil in the region are deemed impractical and absurd.

The current approach will continue to fail

The current strategy of expanding renal clinics, dialysis and transplantation services, coupled with reliance on aid from other countries, is an ineffective approach that falls short of “preventing and eradicating” CKD-CTN in Sri Lanka. This method is like holding a tail to tame a tiger. Even if the rates of deaths have somewhat slowed, it is likely because many of the most vulnerable individuals are already deceased. The focus should shift towards protecting the younger generation and families. Unfortunately, CKDu has become a business venture for many, akin to exploitation during the LTTE war.

In addressing CKD-CTN, vision, political will, and prioritization of programs that cost less than a few months of healthcare expenses for maintaining affected individuals and families are lacking. Sri Lanka possesses the necessary technology, know-how, and essential resources to implement a program for eradication without requiring international expertise. However, inherent conflicts of interest hinder the implementation of the right path and impede progress.

Our latest contribution on the subject [Title: Nanocrystal-induced Chronic Tubular-nephropathy in Tropical Countries: Diagnosis, Mitigation, and Eradication] published on July 2023 in a Nature Journal (EJMR)—PDF of the article available from the following links: https://rdcu.be/dgagf

 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40001-023-01162-y



Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Features

Iain Douglas-Hamilton: Science, courage, and the battle for elephants

Published

on

Iain Douglas-Hamilton

Passing of Iain Douglas-Hamilton, a man who dedicated his life to conservation and whose life’s work leaves a lasting impact on our appreciation for, and understanding of, elephants.

– Prince William

In Africa on 08 December, 2025, when the sun slipped below the horizon, it did not only give an end for that day, but it also marked the end of a man whose knowledge and courage saved Africa’s elephants. This gentleman was none other than Iain Douglas-Hamilton! There is a beautiful African proverb that says, “When an old man dies, a library burns to the ground,” and it resonates well with Iain’s demise.

Iain pioneered behaviour research on elephants, and he was the first to highlight the elephant poaching crisis in Africa. Also, the adventures he went through to save the elephants will inspire generations.

From Oxford to Africa

The Life of the Last Proboscideans: Elephants”, authored by Muthukumarana, stands as an awardwinning, comprehensive study that integrates elephant evolution, anthropology, biology, behaviour, and conservation science.

Iain was born on 16 August, 1942, into an aristocratic family, the son of Lord David Douglas-Hamilton and Ann Prunella Stack. His parents were a distinguished couple in Britain: his father, a Scottish nobleman, served as a squadron leader in the Royal Air Force, while his mother was a pioneering figure in physical fitness and a prominent advocate for women’s rights. After finishing his school, Iain was admitted to Oxford University to study zoology. At the age of 23, for his PhD, Iain travelled to Tanzania to study the behaviour of elephants at Lake Manyara National Park. This was a daring and humble beginning that would change how the world understood elephants. He learnt to recognise individual animals based on their tusks and ears. He observed their family bonds, their grief, and their intelligence. These findings made the scientific community identify elephants as sentimental beings. During this period, he married Oria Rocco, and together they had two children, Saba and Mara.

Battle for the elephants

When ivory poaching swept across Africa and devastated elephant populations, Iain did not withdraw in despair. He confronted the crisis head-on, guided by science, rigorous data, and unwavering resolve. Through extensive aerial counts and field studies, he laid bare the scale of the tragedy—revealing that Africa’s elephant numbers had collapsed from an estimated 1.3 million to just about 600,000 in little more than 10 years.

It was largely thanks to his work that the global community saw—perhaps for the first time—the full scope of the crisis. His efforts played a pivotal role in pushing forward the 1989 international ban on ivory trade, a landmark moment for wildlife conservation.

In 1993, Iain founded Save the Elephants (STE), an organisation that would become the heart of elephant conservation efforts in Kenya and across Africa.

At STE, he pioneered the use of GPS-tracking and aerial survey techniques to monitor elephant movements, protect them from poaching, and plan safe corridors for them in increasingly human-dominated landscapes. These methods have since become standard tools in wildlife conservation worldwide.

Beyond technology and science, Iain was a mentor. He inspired — and continues to inspire — generations of conservationists, researchers, and everyday people who care deeply about wildlife. Through his books (such as Among the Elephants and Battle for the Elephants), documentaries, lectures, and personal example, he invited the world to see elephants not as trophies or commodities, but as sentient beings — worthy of awe, study, and protection.

Iain and Sri Lanka

In 2003 Iain came to Sri Lanka for the first time to attend the “Symposium on Human-Elephant Relationships and Conflict” as the keynote speaker. On that day he concluded his address by saying, “When I hear the talk of Problem Animal Control, I always wonder whether our species has the capacity for its own self-regulation or Problem Human Control in a humane and wise manner. HEC stands for Human Elephant Conflict, one of our focuses of this conference. How I wish it could come to stand for Human Elephant Coexistence, based on a recognition that other beings also need their space to live in. We are a long way from that, but I am sure that many of the findings of the talented body of researchers in this room will begin a stepwise progress in answering some of these fundamental problems.”

A few years ago Iain’s organisation STE collaborated with the Sri Lankan Wildlife Conservation Society for research activities aimed at reducing human-elephant conflict. In 2016 when the Sri Lankan government was going to destroy the confiscated illegal African elephant ivory, I made a request for Iain to write a congratulatory message to Sri Lanka’s President and Prime Minister for the wise decision they had taken. Iain sent me a four-page meaningful letter written by him, and he was joined by 18 other conservation organisations. In his letter he mentioned, “I want to offer my congratulations to the government of Sri Lanka for the laudable decision to destroy ivory stocks…” Sri Lanka is sending a message to the world that ivory should be without worth; elephants have value when alive. This is a critical message to send, particularly to the religious world, as they are sensitised about the threat religious ivory poses to elephant populations in Africa.”

Fortunately, Iain’s conservation is taken up by his children, especially his eldest daughter, Saba. In 2016 and 2024 she came to Sri Lanka for a lecture hosted by the Galle Literary Festival. Also in 2019, for the Wildlife and Nature Protection Society’s 125th Anniversary, Saba and her husband visited a gala dinner that was held to fundraise for conservation projects.

A difficult path

Iain’s path was never easy. He endured personal peril many times: from hostile terrain and unpredictable wild animals to being shot at by poachers while conducting aerial patrols over war-torn national parks.

Yet despite the danger, despite setbacks — flooded camps, lost data, shifting political tides — his conviction never wavered. His was a life marked by resilience. He refused complacency. He refused to surrender. And through every hardship, he remembered why he began: to give elephants a future.

Iain was also a pilot, and as the old English saying goes, “Pilots don’t die; they simply fly higher.” In that spirit, I wish the same peaceful ascent for Iain. My heartfelt condolences are with Iain’s family.

by Tharindu Muthukumarana ✍️
tharinduele@gmail.com
(Author of the award-winning book “The Life of Last Proboscideans: Elephants”)




Continue Reading

Features

Awesome power of gratitude

Published

on

When you hear the word gratitude the first impression you get is a tail-wagging dog. If you feed a dog one day, it will wag its tail even if you meet it after a few years. That is gratitude. In addition, dogs are great teachers. They are at home in the world. They live in the moment and they force us to stay with them. Dogs love us and remain grateful unconditionally not for our bodies or bank accounts.

Small children are taught to say ‘Thank you’ for any favour they receive from others. They do not know that the two words can have positive effects on your health and the well-being of others.

Some time ago I had to call emergency services as I found one of my family members was unconscious. Within minutes an ambulance arrived and the paramedics whisked the patient away to the nearest hospital. He was in intensive care for a few days and returned home. We were marvelled at the impact of a handful of strangers who took charge of the patient at a critical time. I immediately wrote thank you notes to those who saved the patient’s life. I knew that it was a small gesture on my part. However, it was the only way I could express my gratitude to a dedicated team.

Selfless people

Later I realized that there are a large number of selfless people who do life-saving work, but they never expect anything in return. How volunteers saved a large number of flood victims is a case in point. The flood victims may not have expressed their gratitude in so many words. However, they would have felt a deep sense of gratitude to the volunteers who saved them.

Why do people come forward to help those facing natural disasters and other dangerous situations? A recent research in the United States shows that sharing thoughts of gratitude and performing acts of kindness can boost your mood and have other positive effects on your health. Almost all religions teach that gratitude does have a good impact on your happiness. Professor of Psychology Willibald Ruch says that gratitude is among the top five predictors of happiness.

By showing gratitude you can make positive changes in your own life. If you feel a sense of gratitude whenever you receive something that is good for you, it will be a healthy sign. You cannot get such a feeling in a vacuum because others have to play their roles. They can be your loved ones, friends, strangers or even people in authority. Gratitude is how you relate to them when you see yourself in connection with things larger than yourself.

Gratification lifestyle

Strangely, many people do not pause to appreciate what others are doing for them. For this you have to blame your gratification lifestyle. With the popularity of social media the young people feel that they are the centre of the universe. They seem to think there is no necessity to thank those who help them.

Why should we thank others even for minor favours? Recent studies show that those who express gratitude increase their own happiness levels. They also lower their blood pressure levels to a great extent. On the other hand, they will be able to sleep well and improve their relationships. They are also less affected by pain because of the positive impact on their depression.

They may not know that positive effects of gratitude are long lasting. Research shows that those who write thank you notes improve their mental health. There was also a decrease in their bodily pains. What is more, they feel more energetic in completing their daily activities. Unfortunately, schools and universities do not teach the value of gratitude since it is fairly a new field of study. Researchers are still trying to find out its cause and effect relationship. We know that those who perform acts of gratitude can sleep well. However, we do not know the reason for it. Researchers are wondering whether gratitude leads to better sleep or sleep leads to more gratitude. They also probe whether there is another variable that leads to gratitude and improved sleep.

Children

Despite such controversies, we know for certain that gratitude can benefit people at any stage of life. Most elderly people remain grateful for their children and grandchildren who support them. Elderly people cannot regain their physical strength or mental agility. Therefore they focus on gratitude. They are thankful to their children and grandchildren for their present situation.

How do gratitude recipients react? Research shows that those who receive thank you notes or acts of kindness experience positive emotions. You feel happy when someone holds a door open for you. Similarly, you are happy if you receive some unexpected help. Recently I was pleasantly surprised to see that someone has credited a big sum of money to my bank account in appreciation of a small favour I had done.

When you thank someone they are more likely to return the favour or pay kindness forward. Psychologically, people feel very happy when you thank them. However, some people hesitate to say thank you. The give-and-take of gratitude deepens relationships. In a close relationship husbands and wives do not thank each other. However, there are other ways of showing gratitude. A wife can make her husband feel appreciated. Such a feeling of appreciation will go a long way to strengthen their relationship.

Some people are ungrateful by nature. However, they can learn the art of being grateful. Such people will do well to maintain a gratitude journal. It is something similar to Pinpotha maintained by Buddhists in the past. They can record positive events in the journal. At the beginning this may not be easy. With practice, however, you can do it well. I knew of a man who kept a gratitude journal. Although his family members laughed at him, he did not give up the habit. When he was diagnosed with a terminal disease he used to read his gratitude journal very happily.

By R.S. Karunaratne ✍️

Continue Reading

Features

Another Christmas, Another Disaster, Another Recovery Mountain to Climb

Published

on

In line with its overall response to Cyclone Ditwah that devastated many parts of Sri Lanka, India has undertaken to set up temporary Bailey Bridges at selected locations. Work on the first such bridge has begun in Kilinochchi on the Paranthan–Karaichi–Mullaitivu A35 road. Indian Army engineers are working with their counterparts. The Indian HC said that 185 tonnes of Bailey Bridge units were airlifted to restore critical connectivity, along with 44 engineers (Pic courtesy IHC)

The 2004 Asian Tsunami erupted the day after Christmas. Like the Boxing Day Test Match in Brisbane, it was a boxing day bolt for Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, India and Maldives. Twenty one years later, in 2025, multiple Asian cyclones hit almost all the old victims and added a few more, including Malayasia, Vietnam and Cambodia. Indonesia and Sri Lanka were hit hard both times. Unlike the 2004 Tsunami, the 2025 cyclones made landfalls weeks before Christmas, during the Christian Season of Advent, the four-week period before Christmas preparing for the arrival of the Messiah. An ominously adventus manifestation of the nature’s fury.

Yet it was not the “day of wrath and doom impending … heaven and earth in ashes ending” – heavenly punishment for government lying, as an opposition politician ignorantly asserted. By that token, the gods must have opted to punish half a dozen other Asian countries for the NPP government’s lying in Sri Lanka. Or all those governments have been caught lying. Everyone is caught and punished for lying, except the world’s Commander in Chief for lying – Donald J. Trump. But as of late and none too sooner, President Trump is getting his punishment in spades. Who would have thought?

In fairness, even the Catholic Church has banished its old hymn of wrath (Dies irae, dies illa) that used to be sung at funerals from its current Missals; and it has on offer, many other hymns of peace and joy, especially befitting the Christmas season. Although this year’s Christmas comes after weeks of havoc caused by cyclonic storms and torrential rains, the spirit of the season, both in its religious and secular senses, will hopefully provide some solace for those still suffering and some optimism to everyone who is trying to uplift the country from its overflowing waterways and sliding slopes.

As the scale of devastation goes, no natural disaster likely will surpass the human fatalities that the 2004 Tsunami caused. But the spread and scale of this year’s cyclone destruction, especially the destruction of the island’s land-forms and its infrastructure assets, are, in my view, quite unprecedented. The scale of the disaster would finally seem to have sunk into the nation’s political skulls after a few weeks of cacophonic howlers – asking who knew and did what and when. The quest for instant solutions and the insistence that the government should somehow find them immediately are no longer as vehement and voluble as they were when they first emerged.

NBRO and Landslides

But there is understandable frustration and even fear all around, including among government ministers. To wit, the reported frustration of Agriculture Minister K.D. Lalkantha at the alleged inability of the National Building Research Organization (NBRO) to provide more specific directions in landslide warnings instead of issuing blanket ‘Level 3 Red Alerts’ covering whole administrative divisions in the Central Province, especially in the Kandy District. “We can’t relocate all 20 divisional secretariats” in the Kandy District, the Minister told the media a few weeks ago. His frustration is understandable, but expecting NBRO to provide political leaders with precise locations and certainty of landslides or no landslides is a tall ask and the task is fraught with many challenges.

In fairness to NBRO and its Engineers, their competence and their responses to the current calamity have been very impressive. It is not the fault of the NBRO that local disasters could not be prevented, and people could not be warned sufficiently in advance to evacuate and avoid being at the epicentre of landslides. The intensity of landslides this year is really a function of the intensity and persistence of rainfall this season, for the occurrence of landslides in Sri Lanka is very directly co-related to the amount of rainfall. The rainfall during this disaster season has been simply relentless.

Evacuation, the ready remedy, is easier said than socially and politically done. Minister Lal Kantha was exasperated at the prospect of evacuating whole divisional secretariats. This was after multiple landslides and the tragedies and disasters they caused. Imagine anybody seriously listening to NBRO’s pleas or warnings to evacuate before any drop of rainwater has fallen, not to mention a single landslide. Ignoring weather warnings is not peculiar to Sri Lanka, but a universal trait of social inertia.

I just lauded NBRO’s competence and expertise. That is because of the excellent database the NBRO professionals have compiled, delineating landslide zones and demarcating them based on their vulnerability for slope failure. They have also identified the main factors causing landslides, undertaken slope stabilization measures where feasible, and developed preventative and mitigative measures to deal with landslide occurrences.

The NBRO has been around since the 1980s, when its pioneers supplemented the work of Prof. Thurairajah at Peradeniya E’Fac in studying the Hantana hill slopes where the NHDA was undertaking a large housing scheme. As someone who was involved in the Hantana project, I have often thought that the initiation of the NBRO could be deemed one of the positive legacies of then Housing Ministry Secretary R. Paskaralingam.

Be that as it may, the NBRO it has been tracking and analyzing landslides in Sri Lanka for nearly three decades, and would seem to have come of age in landslides expertise with its work following 2016 Aranayake Landslide Disaster in the Kegalle District. Technically, the Aranayake disaster is a remarkable phenomenon and it is known as a “rain-induced rapid long-travelling landslide” (RRLL). In Kegalle the 2016 RRLL carried “a fluidized landslide mass over a distance of 2 km” and caused the death of 125 people. International technical collaboration following the disaster produced significant research work and the start of a five-year research project (from 2020) in partnership with the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL). The main purpose of the project is to improve on the early warning systems that NBRO has been developing and using since 2007.

Sri Lankan landslides are rain induced and occur in hilly and mountainous areas where there is rapid weathering of rock into surface soil deposits. Landslide locations are invariably in the wet zone of the country, in 13 districts, in six provinces (viz., the Central, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Northwestern, Western and Southern, provinces). The Figure below (from NBRO’s literature) shows the number of landslides and fatalities every year between 2003 and 2021.

Based on the graphics shown, there would have been about 5,000 landslides and slope failures with nearly 1,000 deaths over 19 years between 2003 and 2021. Every year there was some landslide or slope failure activity. One notable feature is that there have been more deaths with fewer landslides and vice-versa in particular years. In 2018, there were no deaths when the highest number (1,250) of landslides and slope failures occurred that year. Although the largest number in an year, the landslides in 2018 could have been minor and occurred in unpopulated areas. The reasons for more deaths in, say, 2016 (150) or 2017 (250+), could be their location, population density and the severity of specific landslides.

NBRO’s landslide early warning system is based on three components: (1) Predicting rainfall intensity and monitoring water pressure build up in landslide areas; (2) Monitoring and observing signs of soil movement and slope instability in vulnerable areas; and (3) Communicating landslide risk level and appropriate warning to civil authorities and the local public. The general warnings to Watch (Yellow), be Alert (Brown), or Evacuate (Red) are respectively based on the anticipated rainfall intensities, viz., 75 mm/day, 100 mm/day; and 150 mm/day or 100 mm/hr. My understanding is that over the years, NBRO has established its local presence in vulnerable areas to better communicate with the local population the risk levels and timely action.

Besides Landslides

This year, the rain has been relentless with short-term intensities often exceeding the once per 100-year rainfall. This is now a fact of life in the era of climate change. Added to this was cyclone Ditwah and its unique meteorology and trajectory – from south to north rather than northeast to southwest. The cyclone started with a disturbance southwest of Sri Lanka in the Arabian Sea, traversed around the southern coast from west to east to southeast in the Bay of Bengal, and then cut a wide swath from south to north through the entire easterly half of the island. The origin and the trajectory of the cyclone are also attributed to climate change and changes in the Arabian Sea. The upshot again is unpredictability.

Besides landslides, the rainfall this season has inundated and impacted practically every watershed in the country, literally sweeping away roads, bridges, tanks, canals, and small dams in their hundreds or several hundreds. The longitudinal sinking of the Colombo-Kandy Road in the Kadugannawa area seems quite unparalleled and this may not be the only location that such a shearing may have occurred. The damages are so extensive and it is beyond Sri Lanka’s capacity, and the single-term capacity of any government, to undertake systematic rebuilding of the damaged and washed-off infrastructure.

The government has its work cutout at least in three areas of immediate restoration and long term prevention. On landslides warning, it would seem NBRO has the technical capacity to do what it needs to do, and what seems to be missing is a system of multi-pronged and continuous engagement between the technical experts, on the one hand, and the political and administrative powers as well as local population and institutions, on the other. Such an arrangement is warranted because the landslide problem is severe, significant and it not going to go away now or ever.

Such an engagement will also provide for the technical awareness of the problem, its mitigation and the prevention of serious fallouts. A restructuring could start from the assignment of ministerial responsibilities, and giving NBRO experts constant presence at the highest level of decision making. The engagement should extend down the pyramid to involve every level of administration, including schools and civil society organizations at the local level.

As for external resources, several Asian countries, with India being the closest, are already engaged in multiple ways. It is up to the government to co-ordinate and deploy these friendly resources for maximum results. Sri Lanka is already teamed with India for meteorological monitoring and forecasting, and with Japan for landslide research and studies. These collaborations will obviously continue but they should be focused to fill gaps in climate predictions, and to enhance local level monitoring and prevention of landslides.

To deal with the restoration of the damaged infrastructure in multiple watershed areas, the government may want to revisit the Accelerated Mahaweli Scheme for an approach to deal with the current crisis. The genesis and implementation of that scheme involved as many flaws as it produced benefits, but what might be relevant here is to approach the different countries who were involved in funding and building the different Mahaweli headworks and downstream projects. Australia, Britain, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, Sweden and Germany are some of the countries that were involved in the old Mahaweli projects. They could be approached for technical and financial assistance to restore the damaged infrastructure pieces in the respective watershed areas where these countries were involved.

by Rajan Philips ✍️

Continue Reading

Trending