Features
Encounters with the Tigers, loss of Thenaddi bungalow
Excerpted from the authorized biography of Thilo Hoffmann by Douglas B. Ranasinghe
Thilo and his friend Guido Baumann often spent weekends at Thenaddi Bay, leaving Colombo on Friday evenings and returning to be back in office on time on Monday mornings. During the evening and early morning hours they managed the 178 miles (about 300 km) across the island in Thilo’s Peugeot 504 car in four hours flat despite bad roads.
At times when the Mahaweli was in flood the approach road to the Manampitiya Bridge was under water and the trip would take 12 hours or more. The railway through this area, in contrast to the road, runs on a bund well above the flood level. On several occasions the night was spent on a platform of the Kaduruwela railway station, and in the morning their vehicle was loaded on a bogie (flat-car) of the train for a leisurely ride to Valaichchenai.
In the 1960s and 70s it was also possible to fly to Batticaloa via Uhana, near Ampara, in an Air Ceylon DC3 (Dakota) and later an Avro turboprop. Thilo did so when workers were at the bungalow site, and a vehicle was available to bring him from the Batticaloa airfield and later take him back to it.
He recalls two episodes there. The first was on a return flight. When all the passengers had boarded, the plane was full to bursting, probably overloaded. It revved up and rolled with increasing speed in a northerly direction to the other end of the runway. But it was not fast enough to take off. The pilot aborted the attempt, turned the plane around, rolled back to the starting point, and tried again. The result was the same. Only at the third attempt did he just manage to get airborne. Had he not Thilo would have asked to get off!
Another time Thilo and a friend arrived late at the airfield. The plane was still on the tarmac, the door open, and the steps in place. The airport manager told the two passengers to wait at a short distance from the plane, he then went in, and after a few minutes came out. Hardly had he stepped on the ground than the door was closed and the plane took off. The pilot, says Thilo, obviously wanted to teach the two passengers a lesson and left them stranded. They had no alternative but to take the night mail, the most uncomfortable train ride Thilo had experienced. He lay awake on a sticky plastic covered `sleeperette’. At every station wagons were shunted and goods noisily loaded, and it took nearly 12 hours to get to Colombo.
The serenity and charm of Thenaddi Bay were spoilt when in later years lime-kiln mudalalis from the south began to expand their operations into the area. The reefs were ruthlessly exploited and broken up with crowbars, and trees, even coconut palms, were cut down to fire the kilns. Dynamiting became common, and the ornamental fish trade descended on the reefs to carry on its destructive and depletive activities. Tourists began to arrive.
Thilo tried to stem the tide with varying degrees of success. The LTTE proved to be the most concerned about the environment. They strictly prohibited the breaking of coral and, of course, were promptly obeyed, in contrast to the government.
The house and property at Thenaddi Bay survived the conflict in the east until 1992, through the IPKF (Indian Peace Keeping Force) period, and the LTTE occupation, when it was used by them as a training camp. Then, encouraged by the Tigers before their departure, the complex was ransacked by villagers, who carted away everything that could be broken or torn away, including the well rings. The house and outhouses, which had easily withstood the cyclone of November 1978, though right in its path, were no match for human greed and destructiveness. Later Thilo noticed his bricks, roofing sheets, reapers and rafters, and beams in many new houses at Kankerni and beyond.
Remembering the unidentified ruins of old planters’bunglows along the East coast seen during earlier visits (at Easter Seaton Estate, for instance) he had buried a very heavy granite tablet – over 100 kg – in the brick-paved floor of his own bungalow. It bore the inscription:
This house was built by
Thilo. Hoffmann
of Switzerland
1967
Even this disappeared. But the stark white walls resisted the elements for another dozen years, until the tsunami in December 2004 pushed in the weakened front side of the rectangle. The jungle, the trees, the palms and shrubs were cut down for firewood, and later the land was cleared for cultivation. The area became like a desert, with all vegetation destroyed, and was kept that way by the armed forces, who had set up a camp nearby. This was destroyed by the tsunami. Only after that did the vegetation begin to recover.
Thilo has regularly visited the place and Alagiah, mentioned in a later Chapter, again looked after it. Very recently Thilo gifted the property to Nicholas Baumann, the son of Guido. It is his wish that this land should remain in the private and personal ownership of Nicholas as a legacy from him and also in memory of his late wife.
AMONG THE TIGERS
Throughout the period of the armed conflict Thilo had many encounters with the LTTE.He travelled in parts of the Eastern and Northern Provinces occupied by them in connection with his property at Kayankerni, the annual waterbird census (see Chapter VIII) – e.g. in the coastal stretch north of Trinco, at Marichchukkaddi, in Mannar and the Jaffna Peninsula – and also simply out of interest to Jaffna, Delft, and Mullaitivu.
Some of the Tigers were friendly, some threatening and obstructive, and sometimes there were risky situations. Checkpoints by armed forces on either side, where vehicles and persons were minutely searched, made travelling hazardous, slow and tiresome.His incursions to LTTE-held areas were quite frequent during two periods. The first was while the IPKF battled the Tigers, between October 1987 and March 1990. At the time there were also para-military groups and camps at various locations, in the East of the EPRLF and ENDLF, and in the North additionally of PLOTE, TELO, EROS. After the Indian forces left these were all liquidated by the LTTE.
Once at a checkpoint near Karainagar, and after he had explained the waterbird census as the reason for his being there, he had a long chat with an Indian army Captain about the situation in the peninsula. At some point the Captain asked the rhetorical question: “Can’t you put some sense into the heads of these fellows to take at least a common stand?” He referred to the various Tamil factions which were at each other’s throats.
In Jaffna and the islands, in the Mannar area, the Vanni and the East, the Indian troops erected many small shrines (mostly dedicated to the Hindu deity Ganesha) and memorial tablets stressing their peaceful intents. These were put up along highways, at junctions and bridges. Today there is not a trace left of them: all were subsequently destroyed by the Tigers. Already then there were many decaying and crumbling houses and mansions, not due to damage in the conflict, but because their owners had been forced to flee the areas and abandon their houses.
In May 1990, two months after the IPKF had left Sri Lanka, the LTTE were in full control of the Northern and Eastern Provinces except for Trincomalee. When Thilo visited his property at Thenaddi Bay it was like getting into and out of a foreign country. The Tigers manning the checkpoints looked menacing.
At the end of that month, Thilo set out in his Peugeot car from Renaddi Bay for Jaffna, with Geepal Fernando and Siva, his cook. He drove to Trincomalee, over the six ferries, and then through Nilaveli and Kuchchaveli. At the next ferry they re-entered Tiger land. Here they noticed the movement of rebel fighters. Visiting Tiriyai, which was in prime condition, they continued to Pulmoddai, then inland to Kebitigollewa and Vavuniya. They were late, and when night began to fall they had just crossed Elephant Pass into the Peninsula.
They noticed a brand-new Mitsubishi Pajero, jeep following them at high speed. Near Pallai they were overtaken and ordered to stop. Fortunately, Siva spoke Tamil. After some questions and answers, with the boss of the jeep never seen, the go-between ordered all three of them to get down. They were dumped on the roadside, with their baggage, which included binoculars and several cans of petrol. Then both vehicles drove off.
Across the bund here alongside the road – which had been the old rail track – was a compound owned by an elderly Tamil couple. They took in the “refugees”. Attempts were made to hire a taxi for the trip to Jaffna where Baurs had a branch, but no driver dared to go against the wishes of the Tigers. Early next morning their host traveled to Jaffna by bus and brought the Branch Manager, Mr N. Rajathevan, who in his old Volkswagen took Thilo and the others to Jaffna.
There Thilo tried to complain to the LTTE military commander but in vain. He was busy with the visit of government Minister A.C.S. Hameed expected that evening for negotiations. In desperation they went to the LTTE political headquarters at Kondavil, where they met Anton Balasingham. He was rather embarrassed by the situation.It was created by the military commander of the Pallai sector. He wanted to secure a car for himself. There was a particular reason. When asked why, the Public Relations Officer at the Jaffna LTTE military headquarters replied: “Because there is going to be a war”. During their stay the travelers noticed intense preparations for war, with new bunkers and troop movements.
Thilo and the Manager patiently spent three days at the political headquarters, meeting with Anton Balasingham his wife Adele (and their white dog), as well as Daya Master and other Tigers. (Nearly 15 years later, after the tsunami, the fact that Daya Master remembered Thilo facilitated a visit to Mullaitivu). Then on the evening of the third day the white Peugeot was brought in, only slightly the worse for wear. The next day they left Jaffna. Two weeks later a massive Tiger offensive defeated the Army in the Peninsula and beyond. It was the beginning of “Eelam War II”.
Ranjan Wijeratne, Deputy Minister in charge of Defense at the time, was a personal friend of Thilo’s. Thilo says: “I actually had thought to meet him at that time and tell him of what we had seen and heard, but then felt that it would be presumptuous as he, in charge of the military, would undoubtedly be aware of the situation in the East and the North. In that I was sadly mistaken. They were taken totally by surprise, and I have a somewhat bad conscience about that to this very day.”
The second period during which Thilo travelled often in Tiger-held areas was during the ceasefire from 2002 to 2006. All these trips are recorded, some in great detail, in Thilo’s numerous notebooks, described later.
Features
Counting cats, naming giants: Inside the unofficial science redefining Sri Lanka’s Leopards and Tuskers
For decades, Sri Lanka’s leopard numbers have been debated, estimated, and contested, often based on assumptions few outside academic circles ever questioned.
One of the most fundamental was that a leopard’s spots never change. That belief, long accepted as scientific fact, began to unravel not in a laboratory or lecture hall, but through thousands of photographs taken patiently in the wilds of Yala. At the centre of that quiet disruption stands Milinda Wattegedara.
Sri Lanka’s wilderness has always inspired photographers. Far fewer, however, have transformed photography into a data-driven challenge to established conservation science. Wattegedara—an MBA graduate by training and a wildlife researcher by pursuit—has done precisely that, building one of the most comprehensive independent identification databases of leopards and tuskers in the country.
“I consider myself privileged to have been born and raised in Sri Lanka,” Wattegedara says. “This island is extraordinary in its biodiversity. But admiration alone doesn’t protect wildlife. Accuracy does.”
Raised in Kandy, and educated at Kingswood College, where he captained cricket teams, up to the First XI, Wattegedara’s early years were shaped by discipline and long hours of practice—traits that would later define his approach to field research.
Though his formal education culminated in a Master’s degree in Business Administration from Cardiff Metropolitan University, his professional life gradually shifted toward Sri Lanka’s forests, grasslands, and coastal fringes.
From childhood, two species held his attention: the Sri Lankan leopard and the Asian elephant tusker. Both are icons. Both are elusive. And both, he argues, have been inadequately understood.
His response was methodical. Using high-resolution photography, Wattegedara began documenting individual animals, focusing on repeat sightings, behavioural traits, territorial ranges, and physical markers.
This effort formalised into two platforms—Yala Leopard Diary and Wild Tuskers of Sri Lanka—which function today as tightly moderated research communities rather than casual social media pages.
“My goal was never popularity,” he explains. “It was reliability. Every identification had to stand scrutiny.”
The results are difficult to dismiss. Through collaborative verification and long-term monitoring, his teams have identified over 200 individual leopards across Yala and Kumana National Parks and 280 tuskers across Sri Lanka.
Each animal—whether Jessica YF52 patrolling Mahaseelawa beach or Mahasen T037, the longest tusker bearer recorded in the wild—is catalogued with photographic evidence and movement history.
It was within this growing body of data that a critical inconsistency emerged.
“As injuries accumulated over time, we noticed subtle but consistent changes in rosette and spot patterns,” Wattegedara says. “This directly contradicted the assumption that these markings remain unchanged for life.”
That observation, later corroborated through structured analysis, had serious implications. If leopards were being identified using a limited set of spot references, population estimates risked duplication and inflation.
The findings led to the development of the Multipoint Leopard Identification Method, now internationally published, which uses multiple reference points rather than fixed pattern assumptions. “This wasn’t about academic debate,” Wattegedara notes. “It was about ensuring we weren’t miscounting an endangered species.”
The implications extend beyond Sri Lanka. Overestimated populations can lead to reduced protection, misplaced policy decisions, and weakened conservation urgency.
Yet much of this work has occurred outside formal state institutions.
“There’s a misconception that meaningful research only comes from official channels,” Wattegedara says. “But conservation gaps don’t wait for bureaucracy.”
That philosophy informed his role as co-founder of the Yala Leopard Centre, the world’s first facility dedicated solely to leopard education and identification. The Centre serves as a bridge between researchers, wildlife enthusiasts, and the general public, offering access to verified knowledge rather than speculation.
In a further step toward transparency, Artificial Intelligence has been introduced for automatic leopard identification, freely accessible via the Centre and the Yala Leopard Diary website. “Technology allows consistency,” he explains. “And consistency is everything in long-term studies.”
His work with tuskers mirrors the same precision. From Minneriya to Galgamuwa, Udawalawe to Kala Wewa, Wattegedara has documented generations of bull elephants—Arjuna T008, Kawanthissa T075, Aravinda T112—not merely as photographic subjects, but as individuals with lineage, temperament, and territory.
This depth of observation has also earned him recognition in wildlife photography, including top honours from the Photographic Society of Sri Lanka and accolades from Sanctuary Asia’s Call of the Wild. Still, he is quick to downplay awards.
“Photographs are only valuable if they contribute to understanding,” he says.
Today, Wattegedara’s co-authored identification guides on Yala leopards and Kala Wewa tuskers are increasingly referenced by researchers and field naturalists alike. His work challenges a long-standing divide between citizen science and formal research.
“Wildlife doesn’t care who publishes first,” he reflects. “It only responds to how accurately we observe it.”
In an era when Sri Lanka’s protected areas face mounting pressure—from tourism, infrastructure, and climate stress—the question of who counts wildlife, and how, has never been more urgent.
By insisting on precision, patience, and proof, Milinda Wattegedara has quietly reframed that conversation—one leopard, one tusker, and one verified photograph at a time.
By Ifham Nizam ✍️
Features
AI in Schools: Preparing the Nation for the Next Technological Leap
This summary document is based on an exemplary webinar conducted by the Bandaranaike Academy for Leadership & Public Policy ((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqZGjlaMC08). I participated in the session, which featured multiple speakers with exceptional knowledge and experience who discussed various aspects of incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into the education system and other sectors.
There was strong consensus that this issue must be addressed early, before the nation becomes vulnerable to external actors seeking to exploit AI for their own advantage. Given her educational background, the Education Minister—and the Prime Minister—are likely to be fully aware of this need. This article is intended to support ongoing efforts in educational reform, including the introduction of AI education in schools for those institutions willing to adopt it.
Artificial intelligence is no longer a futuristic concept. Today, it processes vast amounts of global data and makes calculated decisions, often to the benefit of its creators. However, most users remain unaware of the information AI gathers or the extent of its influence on decision-making. Experts warn that without informed and responsible use, nations risk becoming increasingly vulnerable to external forces that may exploit AI.
The Need for Immediate Action
AI is evolving rapidly, leaving traditional educational models struggling to keep pace. By the time new curricula are finalised, they risk becoming outdated, leaving both students and teachers behind. Experts advocate immediate government-led initiatives, including pilot AI education programs in willing schools and nationwide teacher training.
“AI is already with us,” experts note. “We must ensure our nation is on this ‘AI bus’—unlike past technological revolutions, such as IT, microchips, and nanotechnology, which we were slow to embrace.”
Training Teachers and Students
Equipping teachers to introduce AI, at least at the secondary school level, is a crucial first step. AI can enhance creativity, summarise materials, generate lesson plans, provide personalised learning experiences, and even support administrative tasks. Our neighbouring country, India, has already begun this process.
Current data show that student use of AI far exceeds that of instructors—a gap that must be addressed to prevent misuse and educational malpractice. Specialists recommend piloting AI courses as electives, gathering feedback, and continuously refining the curriculum to prepare students for an AI-driven future.
Benefits of AI in Education
AI in schools offers numerous advantages:
· Fosters critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills
· Enhances digital literacy and ethical awareness
· Bridges the digital divide by promoting equitable AI literacy
· Supports interdisciplinary learning in medicine, climate science, and linguistics
· Provides personalised feedback and learning experiences
· Assists students with disabilities through adaptive technologies like text-to-speech and visual recognition
AI can also automate administrative tasks, freeing teachers to focus on student engagement and social-emotional development—a key factor in academic success.
Risks and Challenges
Despite its potential, AI presents challenges:
· Data privacy concerns and misuse of personal information
· Over-reliance on technology, reducing teacher-student interactions
· Algorithmic biases affecting educational outcomes
· Increased opportunities for academic dishonesty if assessments rely on rote memorisation
Experts emphasise understanding these risks to ensure the responsible and ethical use of AI.
Global and Local Perspectives
In India, the Central Board of Secondary Education plans to introduce AI and computational thinking from Grades 3 to 12 by 2026. Sri Lanka faces a similar challenge. Many university students and academics already rely on AI, highlighting the urgent need for a structured yet rapidly evolving national curriculum that incorporates AI responsibly.
The Way Forward
Experts urge swift action:
· Launch pilot programs in select schools immediately.
· Provide teacher training and seed funding to participating educational institutions.
· Engage universities to develop short AI and innovation training programs.
“Waiting for others to lead risks leaving us behind,” experts warn. “It’s time to embrace AI thoughtfully, responsibly, and inclusively—ensuring the whole nation benefits from its opportunities.”
As AI reshapes our world, introducing it in schools is not merely an educational initiative—it is a national imperative.
BY Chula Goonasekera ✍️
on behalf of LEADS forum admin@srilankaleads.com
Features
The Paradox of Trump Power: Contested Authoritarian at Home, Uncontested Bully Abroad
The Trump paradox is easily explained at one level. The US President unleashes American superpower and tariff power abroad with impunity and without contestation. But he cannot exercise unconstitutional executive power including tariff power without checks and challenges within America. No American President after World War II has exercised his authority overseas so brazenly and without any congressional referral as Donald Trump is getting accustomed to doing now. And no American President in history has benefited from a pliant Congress and an equally pliant Supreme Court as has Donald Trump in his second term as president.
Yet he is not having his way in his own country the way he is bullying around the world. People are out on the streets protesting against the wannabe king. This week’s killing of 37 year old Renee Good by immigration agents in Minneapolis has brought the City to its edge five years after the police killing of George Floyd. The lower courts are checking the president relentlessly in spite of the Supreme Court, if not in defiance of it. There are cracks in the Trump’s MAGA world, disillusioned by his neglect of the economy and his costly distractions overseas. His ratings are slowly but surely falling. And in an electoral harbinger, New York has elected as its new mayor, Zoran Mamdani – a wholesale antithesis of Donald Trump you can ever find.
Outside America it is a different picture. The world is too divided and too cautious to stand up to Trump as he recklessly dismantles the very world order that his predecessors have been assiduously imposing on the world for nearly a hundred years. A few recent events dramatically illustrate the Trump paradox – his constraints at home and his freewheeling abroad.
Restive America
Two days before Christmas, the US Supreme Court delivered a rare rebuke to the Trump Administration. After a host of rulings that favoured Trump by putting on hold, without full hearing, lower court strictures against the Administration, the Supreme Court by a 6-3 majority decided to leave in place a Federal Court ruling that barred Trump from deploying National Guard troops in Chicago. Trump quietly raised the white flag and before Christmas withdrew the federal troops he had controversially deployed in Chicago, Portland and Los Angeles – all large cities run by Democrats.
But three days after the New Year, Trump airlifted the might of the US Army to encircle Venezuela’s capital Caracas and spirit away the country’s President Nicolás Maduro, and his wife Celia Flores, all the way to New York to stand trial in an American Court. What is not permissible in any American City was carried out with absolute impunity in a foreign capital. It turns out the Administration has no plan for Venezuela after taking out Maduro, other than Trump’s cavalier assertion, “We’re going to run it, essentially.” Essentially, the Trump Administration has let Maduro’s regime without Maduro to run the country but with the US in total control of Venezuela’s oil.
Next on the brazen list is Greenland, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio who manipulated Maduro’s ouster is off to Copenhagen for discussions with the Danish government over the future of Greenland, a semi-autonomous part of Denmark. Military option is not off the table if a simple real estate purchase or a treaty arrangement were to prove infeasible or too complicated. That is the American position as it is now customarily announced from the White House podium by the Administration’s Press Secretary Karolyn Leavitt, a 28 year old Catholic woman from New Hampshire, who reportedly conducts a team prayer for divine help before appearing at the lectern to lecture.
After the Supreme Court ruling and the Venezuela adventure, the third US development relevant to my argument is the shooting and killing of a 37 year old white American woman by a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer in Minneapolis, at 9:30 in the morning, Wednesday, January 7th. Immediately, the Administration went into pre-emptive attack mode calling the victim a “deranged leftist” and a “domestic terrorist,” and asserting that the ICE officer was acting in self-defense. That line and the description are contrary to what many people know of the victim, as well as what people saw and captured on their phones and cameras.
The victim, Renee Nicole Good, was a mother of three and a prize-winning poet who self-described herself a “poet, writer, wife and mom.” A newcomer to Minneapolis from Colorado, she was active in the community and was a designated “legal observer of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities,” to monitor interactions between ICE agents and civilian protesters that have become the norm in large immigrant cities in America. Renee Good was at the scene in her vehicle to observe ICE operations and community protesters.
In video postings that last a matter of nine seconds, two ICE officers are seen approaching Good’s vehicle and one of them trying to open her door; a bystander is heard screaming “No” as Good is seen trying to drive away; and a third ICE officer is seen standing in front of her moving vehicle, firing twice in the direction of the driver, moving to a side and firing a third time from the side. Good’s car is seen going out of control, careening and coming to a stop on a snowbank. Yet America is being bombarded with two irreconcilable narratives – one manufactured by Trump’s Administration and the other by those at the scene and everyone opposed to the regime.
It adds to the explosiveness of the situation that Good was shot and killed not far from where George Folyd was killed, also in Minneapolis, on 25th May, 2020, choked under the knee of a heartless policeman. And within 48 hours of Good’s killing, two Americans were shot and injured by two federal immigration agents, in Portland, Oregon, on the Westcoast. Trump’s attack on immigrants and the highhanded methods used by ICE agents have become the biggest flashpoint in the political opposition to the Trump presidency. People are organizing protests in places where ICE agents are apprehending immigrants because those who are being aggressively and violently apprehended have long been neighbours, colleagues, small business owners and students in their communities.
Deportation of illegal immigrants is not something that began under Trump. It has been going on in large numbers under all recent presidents including Obama and Biden. But it has never been so cruel and vicious as it is now under Trump. He has turned it into a television spectacle and hired large number of new ICE agents who are politically prejudiced and deployed them without proper training. They raid private homes and public buildings, including schools, looking for immigrants. When faced with protesters they get into clashes rather than deescalating the situation as professional police are trained to do. There is also the fear that the Administration may want to escalate confrontations with protesters to create a pretext for declaring martial law and disrupt the midterm congressional elections in November this year.
But the momentum that Trump was enjoying when he began his second term and started imposing his executive authority, has all but vanished and all within just one year in office. By the time this piece appears in print, the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs (expected on Friday) may be out, and if as expected the ruling goes against Trump that will be a massive body blow to the Administration. Trump will of course use a negative court ruling as the reason for all the economic woes under his presidency, but by then even more Americans would have become tired of his perpetually recycled lies and boasts.
An Obliging World
To get back to my starting argument, it is in this increasingly hostile domestic backdrop that Trump has started looking abroad to assert his power without facing any resistance. And the world is obliging. The western leaders in Europe, Canada and Australia are like the three wise monkeys who will see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil – of anything that Trump does or fails to do. Their biggest fear is about the Trump tariffs – that if they say anything critical of Trump he will magnify the tariffs against their exports to the US. That is an understandable concern and it would be interesting to see if anything will change if the US Supreme Court were to rule against Trump and reject his tariff powers.
Outside the West, and with the exception of China, there is no other country that can stand up to Trump’s bullying and erratic wielding of power. They are also not in a position to oppose Trump and face increased tariffs on their exports to the US. Putin is in his own space and appears to be assured that Trump will not hurt him for whatever reason – and there are many of them, real and speculative. The case of the Latin American countries is different as they are part of the Western Hemisphere, where Trump believes he is monarch of all he surveys.
After more than a hundred years of despising America, many communities, not just regimes, in the region seem to be warming up to Trump. The timing of Trump’s sequestering of Venezuela is coinciding with a rising right wing wave and regime change in the region. An October opinion poll showed 53% of Latin American respondents reacting positively to a then potential US intervention in Venezuela while only 18% of US respondents were in favour of intervention. While there were condemnations by Latin American left leaders, seven Latin American countries with right wing governments gave full throated support to Trump’s ouster of Maduro.
The reasons are not difficult to see. The spread of crime induced by the commerce of cocaine has become the number one concern for most Latin Americans. The socio-religious backdrop to this is the evangelisation of Christianity at the expense of the traditional Catholic Church throughout Latin America. And taking a leaf from Trump, Latin Americans have also embraced the bogey of immigration, mainly influenced by the influx of Venezuelans fleeing in large numbers to escape the horrors of the Maduro regime.
But the current changes in Latin America are not necessarily indicative of a durable ideological shift. The traditional left’s base in the subcontinent is still robust and the recent regime changes are perhaps more due to incumbency fatigue than shifts in political orientations. The left has been in power for the greater part of this century and has not been able to provide answers to the real questions that preoccupied the people – economic affordability, crime and cocaine. It has not been electorally smart for the left to ignore the basic questions of the people and focus on grand projects for the intelligentsia. Exhibit #1 is the grand constitutional project in Chile under outgoing President Gabriel Borich, but it is not the only one. More romantic than realistic, Boric’s project titillated liberal constitutionalists the world over, but was roundly rejected by Chileans.
More importantly, and sooner than later, Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and his intended takeover of the country’s oil business will produce lasting backlashes, once the initial right wing euphoria starts subsiding. Apart from the bully force of Trump’s personality, the mastermind behind the intervention in Venezuela and policy approach towards Latin America in general, is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the former Cuban American Senator from Florida and the principal leader of the group of Cuban neocons in the US. His ultimate objective is said to be achieving regime change in Cuba – apparently a psychological settling of scores on behalf Cuban Americans who have been dead set against Castro’s Cuba after the overthrow of their beloved Batista.
Mr. Rubio is American born and his parents had left Cuba years before Fidel Castro displaced Fulgencio Batista, but the family stories he apparently grew up hearing in Florida have been a large part of his self-acknowledged political makeup. Even so, Secretary Rubio could never have foreseen a situation such as an externally uncontested Trump presidency in which he would be able to play an exceptionally influential role in shaping American policy for Latin America. But as the old Burns’ poem rhymes, “The best-laid plans of men and mice often go awry.”
by Rajan Philips ✍️
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