Business
Crunch time just about to descend upon Sri Lanka
Repaying foreign debt or financing essential imports?
The available foreign reserves of the country can be used to either repay foreign creditors or to finance imports of essential goods and services required by its citizens. This is the dilemma facing Sri Lanka today.
Repaying the full value of the bond using the limited foreign reserves available would provide a windfall gain to those currently holding these bonds.1 But it will be at great cost to the citizens of the country who will face shortages of essentials like food, medicine, and fuel.
In these circumstances, it is in the best interest of all its citizens, for the government to defer payment of the US dollar 500 million International Sovereign Bonds
(ISB) coming due on 18 January 2022, until the economy can fully recover and rebuild.
Just as an individual with co-morbidities is more vulnerable to develop severe illness if infected with COVID-19 and more to likely require hospitalisation and even treatment in an ICU, Sri Lanka was vulnerable to economic shocks long before COVID-19 struck. The country was already facing several macroeconomic challenges. Muted economic growth. An untenable fiscal position. Although a tough consolidation programme was put in place to bring government finances to a more sustainable path, sweeping tax changes implemented at the end of 2019 reversed this process, with adverse consequences to government revenue collection. Weak external sector due to high foreign debt repayments and inadequate foreign reserves to service these debts.
COVID-19 only exacerbated these macroeconomic challenges. And like a patient who gets over the worst of COVID-19 has a long road to recovery; the economy of Sri Lanka faces many challenges to get back on track.
The onset of COVID-19 in early 2020, only worsened an already grim macroeconomic situation. The country lost the confidence of international markets, and the ability of the sovereign to rollover its external debt became difficult if not impossible. In these circumstances, there was a solid argument for a sovereign debt restructuring. But the response from the government and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) was a firm “No”.
The argument was that Sri Lanka never defaulted on its debt and it was not going to do so now. The official position was also that the government had a ‘plan’ to repay its debt and hence there was no reason to engage in a debt restructuring exercise. However, Sri Lanka faced high debt sustainability risks: the debt to GDP ratio at 110% was one of the highest historically and interest payments to government revenue at over 70% was one of the highest in the world.
Fast forward to 2022. The country’s foreign reserves declined to US $ 3.1 billion.2 Useable reserves are much lower. CBSL has sold over US $ 200 million of the country’s gold reserves to meet its debt obligations. In the first week of 2022, CBSL announced further swap facilities and its commitment to repay the International Sovereign Bond (ISB) of US $ 500 million due in January.
According to statistics from the Central Bank, in addition to the ISB payment, there are pre-determined outflows from foreign reserves amounting to US $ 1.3 billion in the first two months of 2022. Further, based on trade data for the last 5 years, the country on average has a trade deficit of around US $ 2 billion to finance during the first quarter of the year (see Table 1). With expected inflows from tourism under threat with the onset of the Omicron variant and continuing decline in worker remittances, financing this external current account deficit will add further pressure on available foreign reserves. India which accounted for around 20% of recent tourist arrivals is now requiring returnees to the country to quarantine. This will likely further dampen tourist arrivals.
In this context, the country faces a trade-off between using its limited foreign reserves to repay its debt or utilising it to finance essential imports. US $ 500 million is sufficient to finance imports of fuel for five months; or pharmaceuticals for one year; or dairy products for one and a half years of; or fertilizer for two years.
See table 1: Summary of External Sector Performance Q1 – 2017 to 2021 (US $ mn)
Therefore, it is in the best interest of the country and its citizens for the government to defer payment on its debt and use its limited foreign reserves to ensure uninterrupted supply of essential imports. But this requires a plan. To minimise the cost to the economy, the government must immediately engage its creditors in a debt restructuring exercise. This will require a debt sustainability analysis (DSA) by a credible agency to identify the resources required for debt relief and the economic adjustment needed to put the country back on a sustainable path.3 This will be critical to bring creditors to the negotiating table and provide them comfort that the country is able and willing to repay its debt obligations in the future.
The cost of not restructuring is much higher. A non-negotiated default (if and when the country runs out of options to service its debt) would lead to a greater loss of output, loss of access to financing or high cost of future borrowing for the sovereign. It could even spill over to the domestic banking sector, triggering a banking or financial crisis.
The consequences are clear. What will we choose?
Dr. Roshan Perera is a Senior Research Fellow at the Advocata Institute and the former Director of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana is the Chair of the Academic Programme at Advocata Institute and the former Economic Adviser at the World Bank. He was the Director and the main author of the 1987 World Development Report on Trade and Industrialisation.
The Advocata Institute is an Independent Public Policy Think Tank. Learn more about Advocata’s work at www.advocata.org.
Business
Sri Lanka’s economy: A slow healing journey in 2026
The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from the Central Bank suggests Sri Lanka’s economy is beginning to find its feet after a severe crisis, revealing tentative signs of hope in factories and business activity. It indicates the deepest economic pain may be over. With prices rising more slowly, families and companies are getting some much-needed relief.
The Island spoke to an independent analyst for an outside perspective. Elaborating on the report, he struck a cautious note: “Yes, the PMI sounds favourable. But no one should think the hard times are completely behind us. The road to recovery is long and full of potholes.”
“While we can hope for slow, steady improvement in coming months, major problems remain,” he continued. “The country’s massive debt is a heavy burden. Staying on track with the IMF programme requires sticking to tough reforms, which won’t be easy. Global economic uncertainty also affects our exports and even other forms of external support.”
“In short, the next phase won’t be a quick boom. It will be a time for careful repair. These small improvements are like young seedlings – they need constant care, sound policy, and continued external support to grow strong. Our task is to turn this shaky stability into a solid foundation for lasting, inclusive growth. The economy is out of emergency care, but full recovery will be a long and patient journey,” he concluded.
When asked if the current political landscape would aid recovery, he pointed to the present stability as a key advantage. “With political stability in place, the path for necessary reforms and recovery should be more navigable now than ever in the past,” he said.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation General Limited inaugurates business operations for 2026
Sri Lanka Insurance Life Ltd and Sri Lanka Insurance General Ltd inaugurated their business operations for the year 2026 on 1st January at the Sri Lanka Insurance Head Office. The event was graced by the Chairman, Board members, Corporate Management, and staff of SLIC.
Parallel business launches were also conducted at branch level, with branch staff joining the head office proceedings via live stream. The day’s programme commenced with blessings observed from the four major religious faiths, symbolising unity and goodwill for the year ahead
Heralding the dawn of the New Year, SLIC brought together all 142 branches in a cohesive celebration, uniting as one family to light the traditional oil lamp. During the celebrations, the theme for SLICGL for 2026 ‘Leading the market, strengthening every step’ was officially unveiled
Celebrating 64 years of service and expertise, SLIC continues to stand as Sri Lanka’s most respected and trusted name in insurance. Over the decades, the organisation has remained at the forefront of the sector, sustaining industry‑wide growth and equity even through testing times.
The year 2025 brought many meaningful and positive achievements for SLICGL, yet it concluded with significant challenges as the nation faced the aftermath of the devastating Cyclone Ditwah. Rising to the occasion, SLICGL honoured claims and delivered timely relief, offering protection and reassurance to communities impacted by the catastrophe.
SLICGL proudly reflects on a year of remarkable achievements in 2025. The organisation was ranked
Sri Lanka’s highest-rated insurance brand as the only A+ Fitch rated insurer in the country and became the first and only insurer to surpass Rs. 30 billion in Gross Written Premium. SLICGL secured Carbon Neutral Certification, highlighting a commitment to sustainability. SLICL was also recognised as the Most Valuable General Insurance Brand by Brand Finance.
The lifting of the vehicle import ban in January 2025 helped to revitalize the automotive sector and also reaffirmed SLICGL’s role as the nation’s most trusted insurer. Stepping in to protect new vehicle owners, SLICGL strengthened its portfolio, supported national growth, and supported families and businesses to move forward with confidence.
During 2025, SLICGL continued its partnership with the Ministry of Education on the Suraksha Insurance Scheme, a national initiative aimed at securing the health and wellbeing 4.5 million schoolchildren throughout the country. The partnership provides students regardless of background, access to essential insurance coverage, safeguarding health, supporting families, and strengthening the nation’s future.
SLIGL’s mission places customers at the heart of everything it does. The organisation continues in the commitment of meeting and exceeding customer expectations through its expertise and specialised services. Aligning business strategies with this vision, SLIC delivers a superior customer experience through all touchpoints.
Business
MILCO turns around fortunes, posts Rs. 1.49 bn record profit in 2025
The Milk Industries of Lanka Company (MILCO) has recorded the highest profit and sales revenue in its history, driven by strong performance under the flagship Highlands brand, Agriculture Minister Lal Kantha said.
Addressing a Performance Incentive Awards Ceremony held at the MILCO Head Office in Narahenpita on December 31, the Minister said the achievement marked a decisive turnaround for the state-owned dairy enterprise, which had earlier been prepared for divestment.
“When we assumed office, MILCO was being readied for sale. Today, we have been able to rescue it and transform it into a profitable institution,” Minister Lal Kantha said. “By October 2025, the company had generated profits amounting to Rs. 1,490 million, the highest profit ever recorded in MILCO’s history.”
He noted that 2025 has also become the year with the highest sales revenue since the company’s establishment, reflecting improved operational efficiency, renewed consumer confidence and stronger market penetration under the Highlands brand.
The Minister said the government intends to ensure that the gains from the company’s financial recovery are shared across the value chain. “A portion of the profits will be distributed as incentives among dairy farmers,” he said, adding that plans are also in place to provide free life insurance coverage to 15,000 dairy farmers in 2026.
The incentive awards ceremony was organised to recognise employees who played a key role in achieving record sales targets and historic profitability, with senior management highlighting improvements in production planning, supply chain management and farmer engagement.
Minister Lal Kantha paid tribute to the dedication of the MILCO workforce, stating that the turnaround was the result of collective effort.
“This achievement belongs to everyone who worked tirelessly to restore confidence in this institution. I extend my sincere appreciation to all those who contributed to this success,” he said.
MILCO’s performance in 2025 is being viewed as a benchmark for the revival of state-owned enterprises, particularly within Sri Lanka’s agri-based industrial sector.
By Ifham Nizam
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