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Covid-19: The Epidemic and the Economy

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Dr. Vitarana very simply explains the basic facts about the virus, its current level of transmission in Sri Lanka, the difficulties Sri Lanka will face in obtaining a vaccine for the entire population within a short-time frame, and calls for “community action” to end the pandemic. He calls the current mode of transmission, “uncontrolled community spread.” He suggests there could be 80% asymptomatic transmission and cites a figure of 30% test positivity from a random PCR study in Colombo by the CMOH.

by Rajan Philips

“What I have learned about pandemics is you have to be very humble. There is no mission-accomplished moment.”

Dr. Vin-Kim Nguyen

Perhaps every medical professional would agree with the sentiment in the above comment by a Vietnamese Canadian doctor, who is affiliated to two international hospitals, one in Montreal, Canada, and the other in Geneva, Switzerland. Unlike doctors who would give you the unvarnished truth, governments and politicians generally have different arrangements with truth and humility. Lack of humility and premature celebrations of victory are all too common in government and politics in Sri Lanka and elsewhere. The country seems to be now paying the price for the government’s premature declaration of victory over Covid-19 and prodigal distractions thereafter – changing constitution just for the heck of it and changing the heck out of the positions of doctors in public health agencies. The infection total is now past 21,000 and the death toll is reaching 100. A sevenfold increase in both in just over seven weeks. What is worrisome, apart from the rate of increases, is the absence of any indication that the government is in control and is able to arrest the trend, let alone reverse it.

 

Sri Lankan numbers are still peanuts in the global context. At Sri Lanka’s rates, the US should have under 400,000 infections and 2,000 deaths. But the superpower has a staggering 13 million infections and over a quarter million deaths. But the finally-on-his- way-out Donald Trump, after single handedly leading America to become the super spreader of the coronavirus, maniacally believes that but for his brilliant stewardship tens of millions of more Americans would be infected by now and a million of them would have died. Americans have managed to get rid of Trump, thanks to their unsung heroes who faithfully counted nearly 160 million votes in the most contentious of situations and the judges who boldly rebuked and threw out every one of Trump’s vexatious pseudo-legal challenges. But America is stuck with the coronavirus which is still spreading in its deadly mutation. And the vaccines, though the result of globally coordinated scientific efforts at the highest level, are not going to be overnight panaceas. Again, every medical professional is saying that.

 

Logistically, there are several hoops to pass through even after one or more of the three lead vaccine candidates are approved for use. Their mass production, storage and transport are all huge challenges, which can be done but not in any hurry. And worldwide vaccination thereafter will be an unprecedented health intervention on a global scale. Then come the challenges of keeping records for multiple inoculation, verifying vaccine effectiveness, and tracking virus transmission after vaccination by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers. According to experts the now ongoing clinical trials alone are not sufficient to be conclusive about any of this, given the speed at which vaccine development is necessarily being undertaken. The consensus upshot is that masks and physical distancing cannot be dispensed with easily or quickly even after vaccination programs get underway in different countries. All of this would invariably lead to delaying the resumption of economic activity to pre-pandemic levels. Sri Lanka is not alone in this, but there are many things that individual countries will have to do themselves on their own.

 

From Infection to Recession

 

Last week I mistakenly left out what would have been the last paragraph in my article. The paragraph was about Dr. Tissa Vitarana’s statement entitled, “Community action can end the Covid-19 pandemic,” that appeared in the Sunday Island on November 8. That statement is by far the best and the most comprehensive, if not the only, public health policy paper on the subject by anyone who is associated with the present government. There should be no surprise about such a statement coming from a former Director of the MRI and a respected professional and academic. He has also been a Minister in the previous Rajapaksa governments, briefly Governor of the North Central Province, and now a National List MP. What is surprising is that Dr. Vitarana’s expertise and thinking for dealing with Covid-19 are not able to find any resonance at any level in this government.

Dr. Vitarana very simply explains the basic facts about the virus, its current level of transmission in Sri Lanka, the difficulties Sri Lanka will face in obtaining a vaccine for the entire population within a short-time frame, and calls for “community action” to end the pandemic. He calls the current mode of transmission, “uncontrolled community spread.” He suggests there could be 80% asymptomatic transmission and cites a figure of 30% test positivity from a random PCR study in Colombo by the CMOH. He fears that waiting for the vaccine to control the virus could be a “distant dream.” The reason is that apart from logistical delays, Sri Lanka should be in a position to buy the available vaccine for 60% of the population in addition to the expected WHO’s free vaccine for 20% of the population, to vaccinate 80% of the population – the threshold “to break the chain of transmission in a population.”

Until then, it is “community action” that should be relied upon, along with the public health infrastructure and a knowledgeable population observing basic health practices, to contain the community spread of the virus. Dr. Vitarana is confident that “if a good example is set from the top (no large gatherings etc.) and the people follow the health guidelines, the country can get rid of the Covid-19 scourge.”

In fairness to Dr. Vitarana, he is not asking to be in charge of this community action plan, and he is confident in the abilities of doctors in the Epidemiology Unit and of the armed forces for tracking and tracing. And if Dr. Vitarana is just a retired professional without political involvement, no one would be suggesting that he should be recalled from retirement to head this or that coronavirus task force. The only reason that some of us are puzzled about his apparent exclusion, is that he has been so much a part of the PA/UPFA/ULF/SLFP/SLPP governing political formation for 26 years – all the way back from 1994, when some of the current bigwigs were in and out of the country and would not have known the difference between a parliamentary system and a presidential system.

Put another way, the mystifying exclusion of Dr. Tissa Vitarana and the inexplicably ridiculous transfer of Dr. Anil Jasinghe from Health to the Environment, are not signs of a government that is prepared to utilize the best available people and the all the available institutional resources to “methodically” (to borrow presidential terminology) deal with the current pandemic crisis. Equally, if things have been working, and there is no surge of infections, nobody will be talking about Dr. Vitarana or Dr. Jasinghe. And there is no certainty either that everything about containing Covid-19 is going to get better. At least, there are no encouraging signs that things are indeed getting better.

The saving grace for everyone is that the recovery rates are high and the death rates are still low. It would also seem that the symptoms of infected are people are not as severe in Sri Lanka as elsewhere, and hospitalization is not currently overwhelming. Will all these factors hold at their current manageable levels, or can they get out of control? I have not come across any discussion about future projections either through technical modelling, or based on experience and commonsense. The overall uncertainty affects decision making about the levels to which social and economic activities can be allowed to open up or resume. In the absence of certainty and determination, it will not be possible to plan for or promise economic growth, let alone prosperity. Even if Sri Lanka is somehow able to resume significant economic activities, it still will have to face a very sluggish world outside.

It is a sign of the times that the British government has officially declared that it is heading towards its worst recession in three centuries. That last one was in 1709 and was caused by a fierce European winter which ravaged economies and caused famine. This time the British economy is expected contract by 11.3%, worse than every country in Europe other than Spain which is staring at a 12.4% GDP drop. Rishi Sunak, Britain’s Punjabi-Hindu Chancellor of the Exchequer, told the House of Commons last week, “Our health emergency is not yet over, and our economic emergency has only just begun.” The emergency could apparently get worse if Brexit goes wrong. In any event, the British government is not expecting the economy to return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2022. That generally is the sentiment in most countries. And China cannot play the same saviour role it played during the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.

This is also the context in which Sri Lankan government leaders should rethink and revisit many of the premises and projections that were included in the new budget. If it is “day-dreaming” to think of buying vaccine to vaccinate 60% of the population, by what yardstick of reality can one expect 60% market capitalisation? Until Covid-19 is brought under reasonable control, it would not be realistic to expect the economy to return to anywhere near full throttle. Clearly, a total lockdown is not the answer, even though it would be the easiest to implement and to claim victory.

Economic targets and infrastructure investments that are inappropriate for the current situation, that are environmentally harmful, and do not carry long term benefits should be avoided. Inappropriate examples include construction of highways and mass paving of 100,000 kilometres of currently unpaved rural roads. The latter would be a drainage disaster. Potential projects that deserve investment green light, are helping garment factory workers to build their own houses, urban and rural water supply and sanitation schemes, countrywide drainage control, and water management as part of agriculture and food production. Such targeted economic activities can go hand in hand with “community action” to contain Covid-19.



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Hemin Hemin superior to being badgered; retribution comes; obstinacy may cause WWIII

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Trump

Warnings have been issued, even in editorials, that promises made in election manifestos by parties, even the more responsible minded NPP, have to be accepted as slightly exaggerated and not implementable immediately. Cass would like to use the phrase ‘taken with a pinch of salt’ regarding election promises, which to her is actually what she means but won’t say it in case she is accused of being frivolous in such a serious matter as country policy decision making and undertaking.

Go slow in Expectations

As is pointed out by the wiser and more knowledgeable all round, time must be given to any new government to implement promises made, and again not to believe all will be met. We, Sri Lankans, have some distinct national characteristics like lotus eating which produces indolence; being akin to soda bottles – sudden spurts of activity, mostly anger and then after damage is done subsiding, froth and bubble forgotten. Also, ever ready to point fingers of accusation outside at others, never at ourselves.

Warnings that the new government which may be solely NPP or a mixed one will necessarily need time to implement promises such as salary increases; life made easier to live; catch rogues, slam them in prison and bring looted billions back to the country where it all belongs. These will take time. Some cannot even be fulfilled like bringing looted money back since the looters would certainly have done their evil with no tracks and traces left. People’s policy should be to wait patiently for a while, go hemin hemin on expectations and demands and be thankful that at least the prevention of two national curses is in place resulting in much less corruption and public servants working as they should.

Cassandra laughed slyly when reading an editorial warning that the youth, not witnessing quick action and implementation of NPP or other parties’ promises, may take to protests and perchance violence as of 1971 against Mrs B’s government and in 1989 may erupt.

No fear dahling! Remember it was the then JVP that organised and set in motion the protests, extremely violent in the late 1980s. They are wiser, much more democratic and instilled by the actions of the mini Cabinet of three confidence. The JVP is now very different from what it was in 1971 and 1989, or so we believe.

Confidence that they, the new leaders, are sensible, wise and even accepted as thus apparently by the international community is a given. The American ambassador was instrumental in bringing a US manufacturing project to Sri Lanka from China. The absence of horas in the departments that deal with foreign investment makes rank corruption a vile practice of the past. Mr 10 percents descending on SL to peck a picking and returning to a life of luxury and locals following suit are also, mercifully, things of the past. Kaputas will be kaput, we expect

A virulent virus in remand prison?

It is a mystery but a fact that whenever a political VIP is remanded, he has to be immediately hospitalised – at the prison hospital or more generously in the National Hospital, Colombo, and for sure in the highest paying rooms with full liberty except to walk out, sorry, chauffeur driven in the most luxurious vehicle. These – unlicensed – are being discovered by the dozen. Keheliya Rambukwella, who Cassandra makes bold to accuse of directly or indirectly causing the death of many by allowing the import of dangerous drugs solely to make illicit money, is one such. He fell ill the moment he was remanded and so sick that he was even allowed food to be brought from home.

There are others, the latest being Lohan Ratwatte. Monday November 5 The Island reported he had been taken into custody for possessing a vehicle stolen overseas and brought into SL. We thought he was a sturdy strong man, quick on the draw even in peaceful hotels and invading prisons when the Minister with a mini-shorts clad girl to frighten poor prisoners, while other frustrated men drooled over the girlish spectacle. The moment he entered the remand prison he fell ill and so ill that he had to be transferred to the general hospital.

Hence my theory there is a virus, short of being deadly, which ghouls the Colombo remand prison. It is mercifully selective; attacks only the very rich, and powerful politicians. Proof again of Sri Lanka being a land like no other, harbouring such a virus.

One politician who was different was Hirunika Premachandra. Sentenced to three years imprisonment for a 2015 abduction of a youth, she spent four or five days in remand prison in an ordinary cell, probably sharing it with convicted female prisoners. She was released on bail on 22 July this year as she appealed against the judgment. No virus attacked her; brave woman that she is. She emerged from incarceration looking lovely as ever with nary a complaint; rather did she comment on the treatment she received and how it was good to spend days and nights in confinement with the hoi polio (not her words) law offenders. Unlike the other quick-to-sickness

male political detainees she had to be separated from her three young children, and she bravely bore it all. Her ‘crime,’ too, was far from abetting the killing of people and crass dishonesty.

No compromise, no heed to mass killing of innocents

Maybe Cass is chicken-hearted and dodges reality, but she just cannot watch or read about the horrendous situation involving Israel, Gaza, Palestine and now Lebanon with Iran in the immediate periphery. To her simple mind, she cannot understand how Israel particularly can kill so wantonly. Why cannot Hamas/Hezbollah declare they will not fight a war anymore? One cannot expect Netanyahu alone to do this. One party has to compromise. Lives have to be saved, especially those of children.

A video clip I watched had Prof Jeffrey Sachs in an interview categorically state that the US should move to stop the war by withdrawing all help – arms, money – to Israel. “Where is western civilisation when Israel is massacring hundreds of thousands and bombing indiscriminately, now threatening Iran? The pervasive view around the world is that there is no western move to stop genocide; not one attempt to reign in US operation carried out by Israel, with silence from Western Europe. A stark failure of American politics.

Netanyahu leads the US to commit disaster after disaster and the US Senate applauds him. Netanyahu will take the world to WWIII just to prevent Palestinians from having a state of their own. A strong US President is needed to stop the war and that is what the Presidents of the US have to do.”

Jeffrey David Sachs is an American economist and public policy analyst who is a professor at Columbia University and was director of the university’s The Earth Institute.

New US Prez

Shocking surprise to Cass that Trump won the US presidential election. She fully expected the American voter to be sane and sensible enough to vote in Kamala Harris, who was empathetic to the less privileged and had much better policy plans than Trump, who spoke almost solely of immigration. He is still running down women. Hearing his acceptance speech on Wednesday noon felt like an actual body blow to Cass. We, Sri Lankan voters, are so much more enlightened than the Americans who rooted for “Make America Great Again” which to the perpetrator means “Make me great again and save me from all the pending court cases.”

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‘Popular will’ and the democratic process in the US and outside

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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

The just concluded presidential election in the US could very well have been the tightest ever such contest in the world’s ‘mightiest democracy’ in recent decades. With some reservations it could be said that the democratic system of government triumphed once again in the US and that the ‘popular will’ asserted itself.

It would have been preferable if the President of the US was elected only by the ‘popular vote’ or the majority of votes she or he directly polls countrywide but unfortunately this is not the case. The Electoral College (EC) system gets in the way of this happening effectively and it is gladdening to note that this issue is being addressed by the more reflective sections in the US. It is time for this question to receive the complete attention of the US’ voting public.

Hopefully, the ‘pluses’ and ‘minuses’ of the EC system would be fully examined by the US public in the days ahead. Right now, critics of the system could not be faulted for seeing it as distorting somewhat the ‘popular will’ or the overall preference of the US voting public in its choice of President.

The close contests between the contenders in what are termed the ‘Swing States’ helped highlight some notable limitations in the EC system. It ought to be plain to see that the requirement that the ‘winner takes all’ of the EC votes in these states needs urgent questioning and rectification.

However, the US and the world’s thriving democracies could take heart from the fact that there has been a legitimate transition of power in the US in the most democratic of ways possible at present for the US. Considering this it could be said that the US is continuing as a frontline, vibrant democratic state.

Not to be forgotten too is the fact that the elections to the US House of Representatives and the Senate have also been simultaneously completed on the basis of laid down legal procedures. That is, elections to all tiers of government have been concluded, testifying to the fact that the ‘democratic health’ of the US is unquestionable.

‘Democracies’ come in numerous forms and it is open to question whether a rigorous definition of the term could be given. Even some of the most authoritarian, autocratic and theocratic states prefer to call themselves ‘democracies’. At first glance, these considerations could lead to some bafflement but it could be stated that, generally, it is only those governing systems that lead to the total empowerment of people that could be considered democratic.

Defenders of and apologists for authoritarian and dictatorial regimes could shoot back on hearing the above observations that since their regimes satisfy the material needs of their populations, their states fully qualify for democratic status.

But the defenders of democracy, correctly understood, may beg to defer. The total empowerment of individuals and publics is realized only when the latter enjoy fundamental rights and freedoms, as enshrined in the UN Declaration of Human Rights, for example.

Accordingly, a regime that does not permit its people total Freedom of Speech and Thought, for instance, could in no way be seen as empowering its people. A regime that does not allow its citizenry the latter rights is repressive and undemocratic and is out of step with democratic development. In fact it is the latter process that even facilitates the material empowerment of publics.

Assessed on the basis of the above yardsticks, the US and other Western states, where fundamental freedoms are generally ‘alive and well’ could be considered democratic although absolute or perfect democracies could nowhere be found. Democracy is a process and it needs to be enriched and given greater depth, going forward. The process is long term and one which progressively evolves.

Besides the above considerations, advanced democracies are also characterized by multiple political parties that contest for power within the parameters of democratic principles. States that lack these essential attributes could not be considered democratic.

Going forward, states East and West need to be guided by the above principles because minus the multi-faceted empowerment of people, democratic development would not be possible. Seen from this viewpoint, it would be self-defeating for government leaders of the South in particular to consider opposition parties as inessential.

They need to also consider that there is no question of turning back the hands of time and reverting to strait-jacketed, one-party states of the Soviet era. These formations were thrown out by the relevant peoples themselves as incapable of ‘delivering the goods’ most needed by them.

The recent US presidential election campaign speeches were, for the most part, bereft of any substantive content. As a result, it’s difficult to predict as to the specific directions in which US foreign policy would evolve in the days ahead.

However, while a less pluralistic and ethnically accommodative US could be expected under Trump, a more inward looking foreign policy could very well be on the cards as well. A future Trump administration could see a lesser need to be committed to the Ukraine, for instance, and is likely to pursue more of an isolationist foreign policy which could see a gradual friction build-up between the US and its Western allies. Consequently, the cause of democratic development worldwide could suffer.

However, during one of her closing election addresses Presidential contender Kamala Harris left the world with a nugget of wisdom or two which would need to be treasured by policy planners and governments worldwide. She said, among other things, that one’s opponent should not necessarily be seen as one’s enemy. The latter should be spoken to in a most constructive fashion at the same table and be seen as having something essential to contribute towards nation-building.

The above is a stateswoman like pronouncement. If the international community is desirous of ushering a more peaceful world, Harris’ words would need to be dwelt on and consistently acted on. They come at a time when inhumanity internationally is more the norm rather than the exception.

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Amazing scene in Mexico…

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All the contestants, vying for the title of Miss Universe 2024, are having an awesome time in the city of Mexico. Sri Lanka is represented by Melloney Dassanayaka and she is doing great in the scene over there, according to reports coming my way. Says Melloney: “I’m having an amazing time in Mexico City, and meeting up with these beautiful ladies is incredible.”

She went on to say that she is super grateful for her incredible roommate, Miss Universe Canada! “She’s kind, funny, caring, and a true sweetheart who made this long pageant month, away from family, so much brighter.

“With her talent as a TV host, and her amazing spirit, I couldn’t have asked for a better companion on this journey. “Huge thanks to Miss Universe @missuniverse for connecting me with all these beautiful souls!”

Plenty of smiles for the cameraman

Melloney has also come in for a lot of praise on social media, with many wishing her ‘good luck’, as well as describing her as…

* Sooo beautiful

* Awww she is cute

* So pretty. Good luck

* Wow! She deserves the crown

The beautiful ladies, in the city of Mexico, are now busy rehearsing and getting themselves fine-tuned for the grand finale, scheduled for next Saturday, 16th November.

By the way, the four top beauty pageants in the world, for women, are (1) Miss Universe, (2) Miss World, (3) Miss Earth, and (4) Miss International.

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