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Central Bank expects economy to contract in second half of 2022 as well

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The Sri Lankan economy is expected to contract in the second half of 2022 as well, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has said in a statement.

“As per the GDP estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), the real economy is estimated to have contracted by 4.8 per cent in the first half of 2022, on a year-on- year basis,” the CBSL said.

The country is continuing to be impacted by tighter monetary and fiscal conditions, continuation of supply-side constraints and uncertainty surrounding the business environment amidst shortages of foreign exchange in the domestic foreign exchange market, CBSL said.

“However, a recovery in economic activity is expected in 2023 with the envisaged improvements in the supply-side, along with the timely implementation of the required reforms,” the CBSL said.

Given the current economic situation, the CBSL decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) at their current levels of 14.50 per cent and 15.50 per cent, respectively.

CBSL announced on Thursday that they arrived at this decision after considering the latest macroeconomic conditions, expected developments and macroeconomic projections.CBSL said that they noted the present tight monetary conditions, the reducing pace of inflation, and both domestic and global factors have helped the country stabilize.

The current fiscal policies are complementing the monetary policy and are helping to mitigate any build-up of aggregate demand pressures, the Bank said.CBSL expects the country’s headline inflation to drop to 4 to 6 per cent over the medium term. The CBSL added that market interest rates are continuously adjusting upwards reflecting the tight liquidity conditions in the domestic money market and the further monetary policy tightening measures introduced thus far.

“With relatively high deposit interest rates offered by licensed banks, a return of currency in circulation to the banking system is also observed. In August 2022, outstanding credit extended to the private sector by commercial banks contracted for the third consecutive month in absolute terms, reflecting the impact of increased effective market lending interest rates, a moderation of economic activity, and measures to curtail non-urgent imports,” CBSL said.

Meanwhile, the current declining trend in the year-on-year growth of credit to the private sector is expected to continue during the remainder of the year, while a similar trend is expected in the growth of broad money (M2b) supply as well. Meanwhile, the need for further monetary financing is expected to reduce gradually, supported by the envisaged fiscal consolidation measures and planned reforms of major state owned business enterprises.

CBSL added that the headline inflation, based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI), increased in September 2022, driven mainly by the recent revision of electricity and water tariffs and the increase in Value Added Tax (VAT).

“However, headline inflation is expected to follow a disinflation path in the period ahead. Subdued aggregate demand pressures resulting from tight monetary and fiscal conditions, expected improvements in domestic supply conditions, normalisation in global food and other commodity prices, and the timely pass through of such reductions to domestic prices, along with the favourable statistical base effect, will be instrumental in bringing down inflation over the medium term,” it said.



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US-assisted ‘Ice’ detection: NPC to examine IGP’s move to transfer drug-busting team

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Kodithuwakku / Ekanayake

Senior DIG among those slated for transfer

By Shamindra Ferdinando

The National Police Commission (NPC) is expected to take up Police Headquarters recommendation to transfer a group of police officers responsible for a major ‘Ice’ bust at the Colombo port recently.

NPC sources told The Island that recommendation in respect of transfers was received last week. Sources said that though the NPC was scheduled to meet today (01), whether IGP Priyantha Weerasooriya’s recommendation would be discussed and decided today was not known.

Members of the NPC are retired High Court Judge Lalith Ekanayake (Chairman), K. Karunaharan, Dilshan Kapila Jayasuriya, A.A.M. Illiyas and Jayantha Jayasinghe

The IGP directed the Special Investigation Unit (SIU) to probe those who carried out the 31 August, 2026 raid that resulted in the detection of 463 kgs of ‘Ice’ concealed in a container that arrived from Pakistan.

The US Embassy declined to comment on the probe though it declared that the largest ever narcotics detection was made on intelligence made available by the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA).

The officers investigated for what an authoritative Headquarters source called shortcomings and lapses on the part of the raiding party, belonged to the Central Crime Investigation Bureau (CCIB). Senior DIG Ranmal Kodituwakku who, on behalf of the CCIB, received information directly from the DEA, is among those Police Headquarters wanted to transfer.

CCIB carried out the raid after having obtained a search order from the Aluthgama Magistrate court. Among the suspects taken in this connection are three Pakistani nationals.

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2027 Budget to be held from 12 Nov. to 14 Dec.

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*  First Reading of the Budget on 7 October

The Committee on Parliamentary Business has decided that the Second Reading of the Appropriation Bill for the year 2027 (Budget Speech/presentation of Budget proposals) will take place on 12 November, followed by the Second Reading debate from 13 November to 14 December.

Secretary General of Parliament Kushani Rohanadeera said this had been decided at a meeting of the Committee on Parliamentary Business held recently under the chairmanship of Speaker Dr. Jagath Wickramaratne.

Accordingly, the Appropriation Bill was scheduled to be presented to Parliament for its First Reading on 7 October, the Secretary General said.

It was also decided that the Second Reading of the Appropriation Bill (Budget Speech) would be delivered by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, in his capacity as the Minister in charge of Finance, on Thursday, 12 November, 2026.

Thereafter, the Second Reading debate will be held for seven days, from 13 November to 20 November. Accordingly, the vote on the Second Reading will be held at 6.00 pm on 20 November.

Thereafter, the Committee Stage debate will be held for 19 days, from 21 November to 14 December , with the vote on the Third Reading of the Budget scheduled for 6.00 pm on 14 December.

During this period, the Budget debate will be held every day, including Saturdays, except on public holidays and Sundays. Parliament is scheduled to meet at 9.30 am on each of these days.

From 9.30 am to 10.00 am each day, time will be allocated for the Parliamentary business specified under Standing Order 22(1) to (6). Thereafter, five Questions for Oral Answers will be taken up from 10.00 am to 10.30 am, followed by one question under Standing Order 27(2) from 10.30 am to 11.00 am.

Accordingly, the debate is scheduled to be held from 11.00 am to 6.00 pm on all days, except the two days on which votes are scheduled to be taken, Motions at the Adjournment Time will be taken up for debate from 6.00 pm to 6.30 pm, based on a 50:50 time allocation between the Government and the Opposition, the Secretary General stated.

It was also approved that during the Second Reading debate, 60% of the debate time will be allocated to the Government and 40% to the Opposition, while during the Committee Stage debate, 40% will be allocated to the Government and 60% to the Opposition.

Furthermore, if a division is called for on an Expenditure Head, relating to a Ministry, the relevant vote will be held at 6.00 pm at the conclusion of the proceedings on the respective day.

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CB Governor confident over timely disbursement of next IMF tranche; hands post-2027 programme decisions to govt.

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Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe

By Sanath Nanayakkare

Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe addressed queries on the nation’s IMF bailout programme yesterday and indicated that Sri Lanka expects to reach a Staff-Level Agreement with the Fund shortly, clearing the path for the next tranche of funding under the $3 billion EFF arrangement before the end of the year.

Answering questions on Sri Lanka’s economic path, after the current programme expires in March 2027, Dr. Weerasinghe clarified that seeking a follow-up IMF arrangement was entirely a policy decision for the government rather than the Central Bank, maintaining the institutional boundary between Central Bank operations and political decision-making.

The Governor remained firm in his projection that the national economy would expand by around 4 percent throughout 2026, demonstrating economic resilience, even amid external volatilities, such as high oil prices.

Dr. Weerasinghe expressed confidence in the domestic economy’s underlying momentum. While international financial institutions and multilateral agencies had pegged Sri Lanka’s growth prospects at more conservative levels, typically around 3.0 to 3.5 percent, he emphasised that CBSL’s projections are grounded in continuous analysis of real-time indicators.

“When you compare with several other agencies, their growth projections hover around 3 to 3.5 percent. However, the economy is already growing at around 4 percent. In our projections, the economy will maintain this growth rate of around 4 percent throughout the year,” Governor Weerasinghe said.

He noted that despite mid-year quarter adjustments due to volatile oil prices, real economic indicators, including steady credit expansion across the commercial banking sector and sustained industrial and service activity, indicate that the growth trajectory remains firmly on track above the 4 percent benchmark.

Reiterating the Central Bank’s primary mandate, Dr. Weerasinghe noted that monetary policy actions remained focused on anchoring inflation and curtailing excess demand to prevent runaway price spikes.

On inflation targeting, the Governor mentioned that CBSL had submitted a technical recommendation to the Ministry of Finance to maintain an inflation target of 5 percent (+ or – 2 percent band) over the next three-year horizon.

Responding to inquiries on differing target forecasts announced by external agencies such as the IMF, Dr. Weerasinghe underscored that the Central Bank’s recommendations stem strictly from domestic technical and empirical evaluations.

“Our recommendation is based on pure technical and empirical analysis considering the country’s specific situation. We have recommended maintaining a 5 percent target for the next three years, and the government has accepted this recommendation,” he added.

Regarding foreign exchange management, the Governor noted that the Central Bank continues its active market intervention strategy aimed at smoothing out undue exchange rate volatility rather than resisting natural market trends.

Dr. Weerasinghe concluded that while the short-to-medium-term outlook remained assured, the combination of a steady 4 percent growth target and proactive fiscal measures would firmly anchor macroeconomic stability through 2026 and beyond.

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