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Central Bank expects economy to contract in second half of 2022 as well
The Sri Lankan economy is expected to contract in the second half of 2022 as well, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has said in a statement.
“As per the GDP estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), the real economy is estimated to have contracted by 4.8 per cent in the first half of 2022, on a year-on- year basis,” the CBSL said.
The country is continuing to be impacted by tighter monetary and fiscal conditions, continuation of supply-side constraints and uncertainty surrounding the business environment amidst shortages of foreign exchange in the domestic foreign exchange market, CBSL said.
“However, a recovery in economic activity is expected in 2023 with the envisaged improvements in the supply-side, along with the timely implementation of the required reforms,” the CBSL said.
Given the current economic situation, the CBSL decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) at their current levels of 14.50 per cent and 15.50 per cent, respectively.
CBSL announced on Thursday that they arrived at this decision after considering the latest macroeconomic conditions, expected developments and macroeconomic projections.CBSL said that they noted the present tight monetary conditions, the reducing pace of inflation, and both domestic and global factors have helped the country stabilize.
The current fiscal policies are complementing the monetary policy and are helping to mitigate any build-up of aggregate demand pressures, the Bank said.CBSL expects the country’s headline inflation to drop to 4 to 6 per cent over the medium term. The CBSL added that market interest rates are continuously adjusting upwards reflecting the tight liquidity conditions in the domestic money market and the further monetary policy tightening measures introduced thus far.
“With relatively high deposit interest rates offered by licensed banks, a return of currency in circulation to the banking system is also observed. In August 2022, outstanding credit extended to the private sector by commercial banks contracted for the third consecutive month in absolute terms, reflecting the impact of increased effective market lending interest rates, a moderation of economic activity, and measures to curtail non-urgent imports,” CBSL said.
Meanwhile, the current declining trend in the year-on-year growth of credit to the private sector is expected to continue during the remainder of the year, while a similar trend is expected in the growth of broad money (M2b) supply as well. Meanwhile, the need for further monetary financing is expected to reduce gradually, supported by the envisaged fiscal consolidation measures and planned reforms of major state owned business enterprises.
CBSL added that the headline inflation, based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI), increased in September 2022, driven mainly by the recent revision of electricity and water tariffs and the increase in Value Added Tax (VAT).
“However, headline inflation is expected to follow a disinflation path in the period ahead. Subdued aggregate demand pressures resulting from tight monetary and fiscal conditions, expected improvements in domestic supply conditions, normalisation in global food and other commodity prices, and the timely pass through of such reductions to domestic prices, along with the favourable statistical base effect, will be instrumental in bringing down inflation over the medium term,” it said.
News
Navy seizes an Indian fishing boat poaching in northern waters
During an operation conducted in the dark hours of 27 Dec 25, the Sri Lanka Navy seized an Indian fishing boat and apprehended 03 Indian fishermen while they were poaching in Sri Lankan waters, south of the Delft Island in Jaffna.
The seized boat and Indian fishermen (03) were brought to the Kreinagar Jetty and were handed over to the Fisheries Inspector of Jaffna for onward legal proceedings.
News
Delay in govt. response to UK sanctions on ex-military chiefs, and others causes concern
Admiral of the Fleet Wasantha Karannagoda said that he is still waiting for the government’s response to the UK sanctions imposed on three ex-military officers, including him, and a former member of the LTTE.
The former Navy Chief said so in response to The Island query whether he was aware of the position taken by a three-member ministerial committee, consisting of Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath, Justice and National Integration Minister Harshana Nanayakkara and Deputy Defence Minister Maj. Gen (retd) Aruna Jayasekera.
The government named the committee in the wake of the UK declaration of travel bans and asset freezes in respect of Karannagoda, General Shavendra Silva, General Jagath Jayasuriya and Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan, also known as Karuna. Maj. Gen. Jayasekera said that they inquired into the issue at hand.
Karannnagoda said that he would like to know the government’s recommendations if the ministerial committee briefed the Cabinet as per a decision taken by the Cabinet of Ministers. Karannagoda said that the issue should have been taken at the highest level as various interested parties continue to humiliate the war-winning military by targeting selected individuals.
Other sources, familiar with the issues at hand, told The Island that the government was yet to announce its stand.
Sources pointed out that the Opposition has been silent on what they called a matter of utmost national importance.
Cabinet spokesman Dr. Nalinda Jayathissa is on record as having described the UK move as a unilateral move and that committee was formed to examine the developments and recommend appropriate measures to the Cabinet.
Foreign Minister Herath told The Island the government was not successful in getting the British to withdraw sanctions. Describing the UK decision as unilateral, the Miniser said that the government conveyed its concerns but the UK didn’t change its stand.
The Island raised the issue with Minister Herath and Admiral Karannagoda in the wake of British MP of Sri Lankan origin, Uma Kumaran requesting the UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper to expand on the government’s sanctions imposed on the four above-mentioned persons.
During a Foreign Affairs Committee meeting on 16 December, the MP for Stratford and Bow highlighted the lack of accountability and political will from the current Sri Lankan government to address war crimes and mass atrocities committed in Sri Lanka.
Sources said that David Lammy, who served as Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs at the time of the declaration of sanctions, had no qualms in declaring that the action taken against four Sri Lankans was in line with a commitment he made during the election campaign to ensure those responsible wouldn’t be allowed impunity. The UK government statement quoted Lammy as having said that this decision ensured that those responsible for past human rights violations and abuses were held accountable.
By Shamindra Ferdinando
News
Sri Lanka outlines seven key vectors of international cooperation at Moscow forum
Sri Lankan Ambassador to the Russian Federation, Shobini Gunasekera recently presented a conceptual framework of seven key vectors that defined contemporary international relations and facilitated dialogue among States. She made the presentation at XI Moscow International Financial and Economic Forum held under the theme “Building Bridges: Partnership without Borders”.
In her address, the Ambassador emphasised that these vectors represent the channels through which ideas circulate, trade expands, and peace is strengthened, serving as guiding principles for cooperation amid global uncertainties. The seven key vectors highlighted were economic ties as a foundation for long-term stability; political choice and diplomacy through dialogue and multilateral engagement; security cooperation to address cross-border threats; cultural linkages through education, tourism, and professional exchanges; technological advancement, particularly in digital systems and artificial intelligence; environmental stewardship through collective action on renewable energy and climate change; and humanitarian obligations, including disaster relief and development cooperation.
Drawing on Sri Lanka’s experience, the Ambassador illustrated the practical application of these principles by highlighting the country’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean, its role as a trade and logistics hub, and its active engagement in regional groupings such as BIMSTEC and the Indian Ocean Rim Association, where the Russian Federation serves as a Dialogue Partner.
The potential for enhanced Sri Lanka–Russia bilateral cooperation was underscored, particularly through complementarities between Russia’s technological and energy expertise and Sri Lanka’s logistical capabilities and maritime infrastructure. She noted that such synergies could support joint initiatives in trade, innovation, tourism, and logistics, while cultural and scientific exchanges would further strengthen mutual understanding between the two countries.
Concluding her remarks, the Ambassador stated that sustained progress requires dialogue, mutual respect, and forward-looking partnerships capable of shaping a shared and stable future.
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