Connect with us

News

Central Bank expects economy to contract in second half of 2022 as well

Published

on

The Sri Lankan economy is expected to contract in the second half of 2022 as well, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has said in a statement.

“As per the GDP estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), the real economy is estimated to have contracted by 4.8 per cent in the first half of 2022, on a year-on- year basis,” the CBSL said.

The country is continuing to be impacted by tighter monetary and fiscal conditions, continuation of supply-side constraints and uncertainty surrounding the business environment amidst shortages of foreign exchange in the domestic foreign exchange market, CBSL said.

“However, a recovery in economic activity is expected in 2023 with the envisaged improvements in the supply-side, along with the timely implementation of the required reforms,” the CBSL said.

Given the current economic situation, the CBSL decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) at their current levels of 14.50 per cent and 15.50 per cent, respectively.

CBSL announced on Thursday that they arrived at this decision after considering the latest macroeconomic conditions, expected developments and macroeconomic projections.CBSL said that they noted the present tight monetary conditions, the reducing pace of inflation, and both domestic and global factors have helped the country stabilize.

The current fiscal policies are complementing the monetary policy and are helping to mitigate any build-up of aggregate demand pressures, the Bank said.CBSL expects the country’s headline inflation to drop to 4 to 6 per cent over the medium term. The CBSL added that market interest rates are continuously adjusting upwards reflecting the tight liquidity conditions in the domestic money market and the further monetary policy tightening measures introduced thus far.

“With relatively high deposit interest rates offered by licensed banks, a return of currency in circulation to the banking system is also observed. In August 2022, outstanding credit extended to the private sector by commercial banks contracted for the third consecutive month in absolute terms, reflecting the impact of increased effective market lending interest rates, a moderation of economic activity, and measures to curtail non-urgent imports,” CBSL said.

Meanwhile, the current declining trend in the year-on-year growth of credit to the private sector is expected to continue during the remainder of the year, while a similar trend is expected in the growth of broad money (M2b) supply as well. Meanwhile, the need for further monetary financing is expected to reduce gradually, supported by the envisaged fiscal consolidation measures and planned reforms of major state owned business enterprises.

CBSL added that the headline inflation, based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI), increased in September 2022, driven mainly by the recent revision of electricity and water tariffs and the increase in Value Added Tax (VAT).

“However, headline inflation is expected to follow a disinflation path in the period ahead. Subdued aggregate demand pressures resulting from tight monetary and fiscal conditions, expected improvements in domestic supply conditions, normalisation in global food and other commodity prices, and the timely pass through of such reductions to domestic prices, along with the favourable statistical base effect, will be instrumental in bringing down inflation over the medium term,” it said.



News

President maintains Lanka has been even-handed in dealing with Iran and US

Published

on

President

Sri Lanka refused the request by three Iranian ships to come to Sri Lanka on a goodwill visit and the request by the United States to land two of its fighter jets  in Mattala, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake told Parliament yesterday.

“Sri Lanka maintained neutrality by refusing the two requests by both the US and Iran,” he said.

President Dissanayake provided a clarification on domestic fuel prices in light of rising crude oil prices in the global market and subsequent fuel price increases in other countries, triggered by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.

The President highlighted that the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) currently supplies 57% of the country’s fuel requirements, while the remaining 43% is supplied by the private sector.

He further noted that private sector suppliers have requested pricing that reflects current global market rates for the fuel they import.

Accordingly, the President emphasised that a decisive decision on fuel price adjustments must be reached as expeditiously as possible to ensure the continuity of the national fuel supply.

Addressing the Parliament, the President stated that the current pricing formula dictates that for every one-dollar increase in global oil prices, domestic fuel prices must rise by Rs. 2.

He noted that the primary impact being faced is driven by the surge in global fuel prices rather than the depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar.

The President said that, globally, countries have been compelled to make difficult decisions regarding fuel costs, with price increases ranging from approximately 6% to 50%.

He added that while global prices have risen by as much as 49%, the domestic increase has been limited to 8%.

He further stated that Sri Lanka is currently facing a significant challenge in maintaining fuel supply.

The Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) accounts for 57% of the country’s fuel supply. He noted that had the CPC been the sole supplier, fluctuations could have been managed by offsetting current losses with future profits.

However, he said the private sector now controls 43% of the market, and their position is that if retail prices do not reflect the current landed cost of fuel, they will cease imports.

He added that, from a business perspective, this is a valid concern, as private companies reportedly incur a loss of approximately USD 55 million per shipment, which he said is unsustainable.

The President emphasised that the contribution of the private sector is essential to maintaining the national fuel supply, but noted that they will only participate if they are able to sell at cost-reflective prices.

He stressed that the issue of fuel pricing must, therefore, be addressed urgently.

He also pointed out that under the existing Act, companies are permitted to increase prices; however, the maximum retail price is determined by the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation.

“Although we have entered into agreements with these private companies, the necessary legislative amendments to the Act have not yet been finalised,” he noted.

Regarding government revenue, the President stated that tax income from fuel currently stands at Rs. 20 billion, compared to Rs. 240 billion generated last year from taxes on diesel.

Continue Reading

Latest News

Heat Index likely to increase up to ‘Caution level’ at some places in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, North-central, Southern and North-western provinces and in Monaragala, Mannar, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts

Published

on

By

Warm Weather Advisory Issued by the Natural Hazards Early Warning Centre of the Department of Meteorology at 3.30 p.m. on 20 March 2026, valid for 21 March 2026

The public are warned that the Heat index, the temperature felt on human body is likely to increase up to ‘Caution level’ at some places in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, North-central, Southern and North-western provinces and in Monaragala, Mannar, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts.

The Heat Index Forecast is calculated by using relative humidity and maximum temperature and this is the condition that is felt on your body. This is not the forecast of maximum temperature. It is generated by the Department of Meteorology for the next day period and prepared by using global numerical weather prediction model data.

Effect of the heat index on human body is mentioned in the above table and it is prepared on the advice of the Ministry of Health and Indigenous Medical Services.

ACTION REQUIRED
Job sites: Stay hydrated and takes breaks in the shade as often as possible.

Indoors: Check up on the elderly and the sick.

Vehicles: Never leave children unattended.

Outdoors: Limit strenuous outdoor activities, find shade and stay hydrated.

Dress: Wear lightweight and white or light-colored clothing.

Note:
In addition, please refer to advisories issued by the Disaster Preparedness & Response Division, Ministry of Health in this regard as well. For further clarifications please contact 011-7446491

Continue Reading

News

IMF team here from 26 March to 09 April

Published

on

A staff team of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will visit Sri Lanka from 26 March to 09 April, IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack announced.

Addressing the IMF press briefing, Kozack said the visit will focus on discussing economic policies.

“The aim will be to complete a combined fifth and sixth review of the IMF-supported programme, while assessing the potential impact of the Middle East conflict on the economy,” she said.

Kozack added that as part of the discussion, the team will be engaging with the authorities to better understand what the potential impact of the Middle East conflict could be on Sri Lanka’s economy.

“When the team returns, it will have an updated assessment of Sri Lanka’s economy and how the IMF can continue to support Sri Lanka.

The IMF Communications Director noted that the Fund is actively engaging with countries affected by the Middle East conflict, assessing global economic risks and standing ready to provide support.

“We are engaging very actively with our membership. We are talking to them about how we see, as I explained here, how we see some of the impacts, on the global economy. But also asking them, how can we best support them at this time, using the full range of tools available to us, including through our policy advice, capacity development and also financial support as needed.

We have engaged with finance ministers and central bank governors in many countries and regions. We’ve also engaged with regional institutions to discuss and share perspectives on the implications of the conflict and again, how the Fund can best provide support. The overall impact, of course, is going to depend very much on the duration and intensity of the conflict.We will provide an updated assessment in our World Economic Outlook in April, which will be comprehensive for the individual country level and also for global and regional economies,” Kozack added.

Continue Reading

Trending