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After Lanka and Pakistan, now Bangladesh lines up before IMF for bailout

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After the collapse of the Sri Lankan economy, attention has turned to the state of affairs in other South Asian countries such as Pakistan, Bhutan and Bangladesh. All three countries have either curtailed imports or are planning to do so, to salvage their fast-depleting foreign exchange reserves and avoid a Lanka-like forex crisis.

While the presence of Pakistan, which is deeply indebted to China like Lanka, and tourism-dependent Bhutan has taken a massive blow from the pandemic-induced travel restrictions on the list of troubled economies is not surprising, that of Bangladesh is. Just last year, the tiny nation was celebrated for beating India in per capita income.And the UN decided to graduate it from the least-developing country category to the developing country grouping by 2026.

Bangladesh seems to have lost that momentum as Dhaka is now beseeching the IMF for a $4.5 billion bailout package to tide over its deepening economic crisis.It has also knocked the doors of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank seeking immediate relief of $1 billion from each.So, what went wrong? Bangladesh’s $ 416 billion economy is heavily dependent on its garment industry which survives on exports mostly to Europe, the US and Latin American countries.

It has been supporting the country’s growth for years but things changed dramatically following the Ukraine war pushing the prices of everything up. In response to the soaring energy prices, the Sheikh Hasina-led government was forced to introduce scheduled outages that directly impacted the textiles industry which relies on an uninterrupted power supply.  On the other hand, demand also dwindled as retailers in the US and European markets — the biggest customers of Bangladesh’s garment products — started holding or cancelling orders due to disruptions and uncertainties in their own economies due to the war in Ukraine.

According to the latest available data, Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves stand at $39.67 billion as of July 20, which is sufficient for just four months’ worth of imports — slightly higher than the IMF’s recommended three-month cover.Just for comparison, the forex reserves were $ 45.5 billion in the year-ago period.

The country is reeling under inflation, too. In June, price rise hit a nine-month high of 7.56%, taking the average inflation for 2021-22 to 6.15%, overshooting the revised annual target of 5.9%.Bangladesh’s imports stood at $81.5 billion between July 2021 and May 2022, up 40% from a year earlier, according to Bangladesh Bank data.As a result, the current account deficit — the shortfall between exports and imports — widened over six times to $17.2 billion in the first 11 months of fiscal 2021-22.

While the Bangladesh finance minister A H M Mustafa Kamal is confident that the IMF aid will help the country tide avoid a crisis, such bailouts always come with strings attached. The Washington-based multilateral lender is known to put stringent conditions for its loans.

According to a report in The Daily Start newspaper, the conditions could include withdrawal of energy subsidies, implementing a fuel pricing mechanism, removing interest rate caps on lending and borrowing, resetting the mechanism to calculate foreign currency reserves, taking steps to increase revenue base, and strengthening corporate governance in the banking sector.

Of these, removing energy subsidies for consumers will be a major challenge for the government as it could trigger public anger. Negations on this clause is likely to drag the process.Obtaining IMF loans is a long process. An IMF delegation is expected to visit Dhaka in September to discuss the terms and conditions.By December, the deal is expected to be locked in for placing at the IMF’s board meeting in January. The question is, will Dhaka be able to manage things till then. (NIE)



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‘Vision’ Programme Marks Two Years

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Marking the completion of two years of the ‘Vision’ Programme, students from Pinnawala Central College and Matale Siri Seevali College were given an opportunity on Thursday (24) to visit the Presidential Secretariat.

The ‘Vision’ Programme was launched for schoolchildren jointly by the Presidential Secretariat, the Ministry of Education and the Department of Communication of the Parliament of Sri Lanka.

Following a visit to the former Parliament building at the Presidential Secretariat, the students were also briefed on the history of Parliament.

The role of the President’s Fund and its importance to schoolchildren were explained by Senior Additional Secretary to the President Roshan Gamage.

The ‘Vision’ commemorative book, featuring the two-year journey of the ‘Vision’ Programme and its special activities, was also presented to the participating schools.

As part of the programme, valuable plants were also presented to the schools as a symbolic gesture underscoring the importance of environmental conservation.

Director General of Public Relations Dharmasiri Gamage, the Director and Assistant Director of the Tri-Services Security Coordination Unit, the principals and teaching staff of Pinnawala Central College and Matale Siri Seevali College, and students were among those present on the occasion.

President’s Media Division (PMD)

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Sajith vows to scrap 22A under future govt.

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Sajith at yesterday’s protest

Opposition and SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa yesterday vowed that an SJB government would repeal the 22nd Amendment (22A) to the Constitution.Premadasa made the pledge while addressing thousands of SJB supporters who gathered near Parliament to protest against 22A.

Addressing the rally at Polduwa Junction, Battaramulla, Premadasa said the proposed constitutional amendment would undermine democracy and judicial independence and enable the concentration of political power in the Executive.

“Even if they pass it, under an SJB government we will scrap it,” Premadasa told the gathering, claiming that 22A was aimed at paving the way for a one-party state and placing the State under the control of a single political party.

Braving the rain, Premadasa said they had gathered there peacefully and had no intention of resorting to violence.

“We have gathered here to protect democracy,” he said, challenging the government to hold Provincial Council elections if it was confident of facing the people.

Premadasa said the SJB was prepared to work with any democratic and clean political force committed to the country’s progress and public welfare, amid ongoing discussions on cooperation among Opposition parties, including the United National Party.

Premadasa also accused groups aligned with the government of attempting to discourage people from attending the protest through statements and other measures.

SJB General Secretary Ranjith Madduma Bandara said the protest had been organised against the proposed amendment, which the party had opposed on the grounds that it could pave the way for authoritarianism.

The demonstration began around 9 a.m. at Polduwa Junction and coincided with Parliament taking up the proposed 22nd Amendment for debate. Proceedings on the Bill are scheduled to continue today (25).

The Supreme Court has determined that the proposed amendment does not require approval at a referendum and could be passed with a special majority in Parliament.

Meanwhile, traffic congestion was reported on roads surrounding Parliament and Polduwa Junction following the demonstration.

Security was also tightened in and around the Parliamentary complex, with a heavy police presence observed at Polduwa Junction and near the main entrance to Parliament.

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Two retired female Navy officers remanded over disappearance of two women during war

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Two retired female Navy petty officers were ordered to be remanded until October 5 over their alleged involvement in the abduction and disappearance of two women in Trincomalee during the war.

Trincomalee Chief Magistrate M.S.M. Samsudeen yesterday ordered that the two suspects be remanded and directed that they be produced for an identification parade on October 5.

The suspects, residents of Chilaw and Haputale, were arrested after appearing before the CID in connection with another court case. They were subsequently produced before the Trincomalee Magistrate’s Court.

The court was informed that the investigation concerned the alleged abduction of Sasikumar Thenmoli and Mary Delsia, residents of Paalaiyootru, Trincomalee, on or around May 13, 2008.

The CID told court that information uncovered during its investigations indicated that the two women had allegedly been detained at an underground location known as the “Gun Site” at the Trincomalee Naval Base while the two suspects were serving in the Navy. The women were subsequently reported missing.

Further investigations into the alleged abduction and disappearance of the two women are continuing.

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