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2024: An election year and global trends

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In the global political landscape of 2024, Reuters provides a comprehensive overview of key elections shaping the economic and geopolitical landscape across diverse regions. From Europe, where the rise of Eurosceptic far-right parties poses challenges to the European Union’s integration, to Russia, where Vladimir Putin is set for another term amid heightened tensions with the West, the report navigates through critical elections in Turkey, India, Mexico, South Africa, the United States, Britain, and Venezuela. The analysis underscores the potential market risks associated with each election, ranging from currency fluctuations, inflation and government bond concerns to geopolitical ramifications affecting international relations. As voters cast their ballots, the Reuters brief illuminates the intricate intersections of politics and economics, offering valuable insights into the potential trajectories of these nations and their impact on the global stage.

To evaluate the potential impact of these global elections on Sri Lanka’s upcoming political landscape, it is imperative to delve into the economic trajectories pursued by the primary political entities participating in the elections. Contrary to past practices where Presidential elections took precedence, there are speculations that the impending general elections will precede other electoral events. Four predominant political forces have emerged on the forefront, namely the United National Party (UNP), Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), and Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB). Each of these forces holds distinct economic policies and visions, making a thorough comprehension of their respective stances crucial for anticipating the potential repercussions on Sri Lanka’s political and economic landscape.

A slight distinction exists between the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), with their current collaborative governance with shared portfolios and a lack of overt contradictions. Both parties, led by experienced leaders, advocate for similar economic policies, although the SLPP adopts a nationalistic facade. Notably, the key disparity lies in the SLPP’s adeptness in making emotional appeals, strategically leveraging Sinhala votes and invoking a sense of ultra-nationalism. In contrast, the UNP, under Ranil’s leadership, takes the lead in courting minority votes. The intricate dynamics of emotional appeals and voting strategies distinguish the UNP and SLPP in the current political landscape. While the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) aligns closely with these economic management policies, all three forces, UNP, SLPP and SJB reflect a broader right or center-right outlook.

In a departure from traditional approaches, the Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) stands on its head when expressing a willingness to collaborate with the IMF. Their ideological outlook tilts towards the center-left, rather than the extreme left, despite the significant influence of the Marxist JVP within the coalition. Although their differences from other political entities have diminished, a distinctive feature remains their limited administrative experience, having not governed beyond the council level.

Consequently, voters are likely to prioritize candidates with a proven track record of minimal corruption and a strong focus on effective economic management. Thus, the hands-on experience of candidates is expected to carry considerable weight in the eyes of the electorate.

Source: Reuters

Europe: Elections are scheduled in Portugal, Belgium, European Parliament, Croatia, Romania, and Austria. According to analysts, Eurosceptic far-right parties are gaining momentum, potentially impacting the European Union’s legislative decisions. Market risks include potential effects on Italian stocks and bonds if eurosceptic parties gain influence, affecting European integration.

Russia: Presidential election is scheduled on March 17, with Vladimir Putin expected to secure another term. Putin’s stance on the war in Ukraine may influence international market sentiment. Potential risks include Western governments considering seizing frozen Russian assets, leading to retaliatory measures from Russia.

Turkey: Local elections are scheduled on March 31. Economic reforms have started to attract international investors, but concerns exist about a weak Lira (Turkish currency), and high inflation. Potential risks include political uncertainty, given President Erdogan’s history of personnel changes in economic positions.

India: National elections are expected in April-May (exact date to be confirmed). Narendra Modi expected to win a third term, with potential market risks related to persistent inflation and fiscal policies.

Mexico: Presidential election is scheduled on June 2, involving a full Congress reshuffle. Incumbent party (Morena) and its candidate have a double-digit lead, but increased spending could impact the Peso (Mexican currency) and government bonds.

South Africa: Elections are scheduled between May and August 2024 (exact date to be confirmed). Ruling African National Congress faces challenges, and economic issues may lead to a coalition government. Market risks include concerns about debt levels, social spending, and currency weakness.

 

United States: Presidential election is scheduled on November 5, with predictions of a Trump-Biden rematch. Potential market risks include social unrest, impacts on consumer sentiment, and currency fluctuations based on election probabilities.

Britain: Elections are expected by the end of 2024. Labour party leading in polls, potential risks related to economic stagnation, fiscal policies, and changes in planning rules.


Venezuela: Presidential election is expected in 2024 (exact date to be confirmed). Incumbent Maduro has an advantage, but potential market risks include U.S. sanctions, debt restructuring, and the impact on Venezuelan stocks and bonds.

The outcomes of these elections are poised to unleash a political storm, characterized by a wind of right or center-right ideologies. This impending wave of political change is anticipated to exert influence not only on the economies, policies, and international relations of the respective countries but also on the broader geopolitical landscape. As investors and markets keenly observe these global events, the potential shifts in political landscapes and policy directions are likely to reverberate, significantly impacting the political situation in Sri Lanka and nudging it more towards a center-right position, diminishing chances for leftist politics.

Impact of IMF’s stand

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) assessment and recommendations for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery hold significant implications for the country’s upcoming elections. The $2.9 billion bailout loan agreement from the IMF signals a step towards recovery from Sri Lanka’s worst financial crisis in decades. However, the IMF emphasizes the need for the swift finalization of agreements with official lenders and a resolution with external private creditors.

As Sri Lanka navigates economic challenges, including the introduction of a progressive property tax and VAT adjustments, these measures could become central issues in the electoral landscape. The IMF’s call for fair burden-sharing, sustainable reforms, and strengthened tax administration underscores the importance of fiscal policies that directly impact citizens.

Sri Lanka’s ability to stay the course on economic reforms will not only impact its financial stability but could also play a pivotal role in the broader narrative of political leadership and governance during the elections.

Cost of living

Sri Lanka’s consumer price inflation rate rising to 4.2% year-on-year in December, driven by increasing food prices, can have several impacts on the upcoming elections. The inflationary pressures, particularly in food prices, may contribute to economic anxieties among voters. The government’s decision to raise the value-added tax (VAT) to 18% from 15% to meet revenue targets could become a contentious issue. The decision of the central bank to leave key policy rates (SDFR 9% and SLFR 10%) unchanged is significant and may be a point of discussion in the electoral context, with voters assessing the government’s economic strategies and the effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling inflation.

Conclusions

To assess the potential impact of global elections on Sri Lanka’s forthcoming political landscape, an exploration into the economic trajectories of key political entities becomes imperative. Unlike past practices where Presidential elections took precedence, speculation surrounds the prioritization of impending general elections. Four prominent political forces—UNP, SLPP, SJB, and JJB—emerge as influential players, each harboring very similar economic policies and visions. UNP and SLPP have a subtle difference, and SJB closely follows their economic policies, collectively reflecting a broader right or center-right outlook.

In a paradigm shift, the JJB, expressing a willingness to collaborate with the IMF, stands on its head ideologically, leaning towards center-left despite the Marxist JVP’s significant influence. Despite diminished differences with other entities, their limited administrative experience remains a distinct disadvantage.

Potential market risks associated with worldwide elections, spanning currency fluctuations, government bonds, inflation, and geopolitical ramifications, underscore the intricate connections between global politics and economics. The IMF’s bailout signals a recovery path, with an emphasis on finalizing agreements and addressing private creditor issues becoming pivotal. Government commitment to fiscal reforms, including a progressive property tax and VAT adjustments, shapes electoral discourse.

Central themes of economic concerns, policy decisions, and inflation debates take center stage, with voters scrutinizing the government’s economic management. The Central Bank’s role and recovery narratives add layers to the discussion, emphasizing the intricate relationship between economic indicators and political outcomes.

Finally, voter priorities should be in favour of candidates with a corruption-free track record and a focus on effective economic management.

(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT University, Malabe. He is also the author of the “Doing Social Research and Publishing Results”, a Springer publication (Singapore), and “Samaja Gaveshakaya (in Sinhala). The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the institution he works for. He can be contacted at saliya.a@slit.lk and www.researcher.com)



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Features

The challenge of being positive about SAARC

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The RCSS forum addressed by SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar in progress. (Pic courtesy RCSS)

It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.

Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.

However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?

There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.

The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.

Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.

Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.

The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.

On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.

In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.

Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.

Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.

The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.

These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.

Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.

There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.

However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.

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OPA seminar examines Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, resilience and growth pathways

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(L to R) Dr Achinthya Koswatte, Anushan Kapilan, Dr Harsha Aturupane, Bhanu Wijeyaratne, Vice President, OPA and moderator of the discussion, and Eng Chamil Edirimuny, General Secretary, OPA, at the head table.

A seminar, “Sri Lanka’s Economic Crossroads: Navigating Recovery, Resilience and Growth” was recently held by the Organisation of Professional Associations of Sri Lanka (OPA) at the OPA Auditorium, bringing together economists, OPA members, and professionals from diverse fields for an insightful discussion on Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and future growth prospects.

The event was held under the patronage of Jayantha Gallehewa, President of the OPA, and was jointly organised by the National Issues Committee (NIC) and the Seminars, Workshops and Programmes Committee of the OPA. The event reaffirmed the organisation’s commitment to advancing professional excellence, fostering insightful intellectual engagement, facilitating interdisciplinary knowledge exchange and creating a constructive platform for informed dialogue on issues of national importance.

The panel of speakers comprised Dr. Harsha Aturupane, Lead Economist and Programme Leader for Human Development at the World Bank for Sri Lanka and the Maldives; Dr. Achinthya Koswatta, Senior Lecturer in Economics at the Open University of Sri Lanka, and Anushan Kapilan, Lead Economist at Verité Research.

In his welcome address, the President of the OPA emphasised that Sri Lanka was at a critical juncture in its economic recovery journey where sustained reforms, effective implementation, and collective national commitment are essential to achieving long-term stability, resilience and inclusive growth. He noted that the country had experienced one of the most severe economic crises in its history with the economy contracting by 7.8 percent in 2022 and a further 11.5 percent in 2023, resulting in significant economic and social challenges.

Delivering his introductory remarks Bhanu Wijeyaratne, Vice President of the OPA and Chairman of the National Issues Committee, underscored the need to move beyond short-term economic stabilisation towards a comprehensive agenda of structural transformation. He observed that the economic crisis had revealed deep-rooted weaknesses within the economy, including persistent fiscal pressures, rising public debt, foreign exchange limitations, and insufficient diversification of the export base. He stressed that addressing these challenges through strategic reforms, institutional strengthening and long-term economic planning would be essential to establishing a more resilient and competitive economy.

While acknowledging recent positive developments, including improved inflation management, tourism recovery and signs of economic stabilisation, Wijeyaratne stressed the need to advance reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal discipline, enhancing productivity, improving competitiveness, developing human capital and reinforcing governance and institutional effectiveness.

He further highlighted the important role of professionals, businesses, academia and other stakeholders in contributing to evidence-based dialogue and supporting Sri Lanka’s journey towards a resilient, inclusive and sustainable economic future.

Delivering the keynote presentation, Dr. Harsha Aturupane provided a comprehensive assessment of Sri Lanka’s economic prospects within the broader context of global economic transformation. He argued that Sri Lanka functioned as a small open economy whose performance is significantly influenced by developments in the global marketplace. External factors could not be controlled, and the country must strengthen its domestic capacity and resilience to respond effectively to international economic shifts, he noted.

Tracing the evolution of global economic systems, Dr. Aturupane highlighted the transition from ideological divisions between state-controlled and market-oriented economies towards increasingly pragmatic approaches focused on growth, competitiveness and development. He noted that Sri Lanka’s own economic journey reflects a similar evolution, with contemporary policy debates now centred on practical solutions for sustainable economic progress.

The presentation also examined the transformative impact of globalisation. Dr. Aturupane observed that global economic integration had enabled several East Asian economies, including South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, to achieve remarkable economic advancement through export-led growth strategies. Sri Lanka similarly benefited from this process through the expansion of its apparel industry and increased integration into global value chains.

Turning to Sri Lanka’s recovery programme, Dr. Aturupane emphasised that the ongoing stabilisation process should be viewed as a national programme supported by the International Monetary Fund rather than solely as an IMF initiative. He observed that strong worker remittances, improved tourism earnings, enhanced government revenue mobilisation and prudent import management have contributed significantly to economic stabilisation.

Despite this progress, he cautioned that rebuilding foreign exchange reserves and meeting future debt obligations remain major challenges. He underscored the need to strengthen export performance, attract investment and generate sustainable foreign exchange earnings to ensure long-term economic resilience.

The discussion also focused on monetary stability, inflation management and exchange-rate policy. Dr. Aturupane stressed that maintaining price stability was fundamental to sustainable growth and household welfare, while sound monetary policy remains essential for preserving economic confidence.

Looking beyond stabilisation, he argued that Sri Lanka must transition towards a broader economic transformation agenda. Sustainable growth, he noted, will depend on expanding productive capacity through investment, technological advancement, innovation, skills development and structural reforms.

Among the key constraints identified was the high cost of energy, which continues to affect competitiveness and investment attractiveness. Dr. Aturupane emphasised the importance of improving efficiency and affordability within the energy sector to enhance Sri Lanka’s business environment.

He further highlighted the social dimensions of the crisis, noting the rise in poverty and economic vulnerability among households. Strengthening social protection systems and ensuring inclusive growth, he argued, must remain central components of the national development agenda.

Another critical challenge identified was Sri Lanka’s demographic transition. With an ageing population, outward migration and evolving labour market dynamics, the country is increasingly confronting labour shortages in several sectors. Dr. Aturupane suggested that greater automation, increased labour-force participation and strategic workforce planning would be necessary to address these emerging realities.

Concluding his presentation, he emphasised the need to improve governance, strengthen institutions, enhance competitiveness and create an enabling environment for private sector investment. Sri Lanka’s future success, he noted, will depend on its ability to move decisively beyond crisis management towards a development model founded on resilience, innovation, productivity and inclusive growth.

Dr. Achinthya Koswatta reiterated the importance of policy consistency and predictability in fostering investment and industrial development. She observed that frequent policy changes create uncertainty and discourage long-term investment decisions, whereas stable and coherent policy frameworks build confidence and support sustainable economic transformation.

Meanwhile, Anushan Kapilan highlighted the substantial progress achieved in restoring macroeconomic stability following the recent crisis. He noted significant improvements in fiscal performance, including increased government revenue, reduced reliance on debt financing and a historically low fiscal deficit.

He further observed that public debt levels are declining faster than anticipated, economic growth has exceeded expectations and inflation has been brought under control more rapidly than forecast. Nevertheless, he cautioned that the recovery remains uneven, particularly within the industrial sector and that many households have yet to experience a meaningful improvement in living standards.

The seminar was expertly coordinated by Eng. Chamil Edirimuni, Vice President of the OPA and Chairman of the Seminars, Workshops and Programmes Committee, while the technical moderation and interactive discussion session were facilitated by Bhanu Wijeyaratne, Vice President of the OPA and Chairman of the National Issues Committee.

The event was attended by Tisara De Silva, President-Elect of the OPA, Eng. Ravi Rupasinghe, General Secretary, Past Presidents, members of the Executive Council, representatives of the General Forum and professionals representing a wide range of disciplines.

The seminar concluded with a vibrant exchange of ideas and perspectives, reaffirming the importance of evidence-based policy dialogue, institutional collaboration and collective national commitment in advancing Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, resilience and sustainable growth.

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Her roots run deep in Sri Lanka

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Samantha Kay: Now based in the UK Samantha’s biggest passion is helping people, especially women, build confidence and believe in themselves Today, her focus is on radio, podcasting and coaching women Whenever she visits Sri Lanka, she says she loves spending time on the beautiful south coast, especially Hikkaduwa and Mirissa She released a song with 90s music icon Angie Brown, which reached No. 9 in the UK Club Charts

Yes, for UK-based presenter and artiste Samantha Kay, home is where the heart – and the roots – are. And her roots run deep in Sri Lanka.

In an exclusive interview with The Island, Samantha says “I’m proud to be Sri Lankan. My mum is from Kandy and my dad is from Colombo, so Sri Lanka has always held a very special place in my heart.

“Whenever I visit Sri Lanka, I love spending time on the beautiful south coast, especially Hikkaduwa and Mirissa. It’s somewhere I always feel connected to my roots and completely at peace.”

Now living in Bournemouth, on the south coast of England, where, she says, she is lucky to be close to some of the UK’s most beautiful beaches, including the iconic Sandbanks, Samantha has built a career that refuses to fit into one box.

She is a radio presenter, podcast host, singer-songwriter, personal trainer and life coach.

“I genuinely love the variety because every role allows me to connect with people and, hopefully, make a positive difference in someone’s day.”

Of course, music has taken her far.

One of her proudest achievements, she says, was releasing a song with 90s music icon Angie Brown, which reached No. 9 in the UK Club Charts.

She also reached the final stages of The X Factor and performed at Wembley Stadium in front of thousands.

Beyond music, Samantha competed in bikini bodybuilding across the UK, winning several titles. “It taught me discipline, resilience and self-belief,” she recalls.

Today, her focus is on radio, podcasting and coaching women. Her podcast encourages people to live life on their own terms rather than feeling pressured to follow society’s expectations.

Says Samantha: “Whether someone is single, changing careers, travelling solo or simply trying to find their purpose, I want them to know that it’s never too late to create a life that feels authentic. If you’ve ever felt like you don’t fit into the box, maybe you were never meant to.”

Samantha Kay also spent a year in Dubai, performing at five-star hotels, including FIVE, and coaching at the iconic outdoor gym on Palm Jumeirah.

“I taught strength and conditioning classes, and hosted wellness retreats, combining my passion for music, health and inspiring others.”

However, with family matters calling her back to the UK, she made the choice to return. “Family comes first,” she says.

Looking ahead, Samantha plans to grow her radio and podcast work, release more music, and expand her wellness retreats.

“My biggest passion is helping people, especially women, build confidence and believe in themselves,” she says.

“Wherever my career takes me, I hope to continue inspiring others to live with courage, kindness and authenticity, while never forgetting my Sri Lankan roots.”

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