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2024: An election year and global trends

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In the global political landscape of 2024, Reuters provides a comprehensive overview of key elections shaping the economic and geopolitical landscape across diverse regions. From Europe, where the rise of Eurosceptic far-right parties poses challenges to the European Union’s integration, to Russia, where Vladimir Putin is set for another term amid heightened tensions with the West, the report navigates through critical elections in Turkey, India, Mexico, South Africa, the United States, Britain, and Venezuela. The analysis underscores the potential market risks associated with each election, ranging from currency fluctuations, inflation and government bond concerns to geopolitical ramifications affecting international relations. As voters cast their ballots, the Reuters brief illuminates the intricate intersections of politics and economics, offering valuable insights into the potential trajectories of these nations and their impact on the global stage.

To evaluate the potential impact of these global elections on Sri Lanka’s upcoming political landscape, it is imperative to delve into the economic trajectories pursued by the primary political entities participating in the elections. Contrary to past practices where Presidential elections took precedence, there are speculations that the impending general elections will precede other electoral events. Four predominant political forces have emerged on the forefront, namely the United National Party (UNP), Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), and Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB). Each of these forces holds distinct economic policies and visions, making a thorough comprehension of their respective stances crucial for anticipating the potential repercussions on Sri Lanka’s political and economic landscape.

A slight distinction exists between the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), with their current collaborative governance with shared portfolios and a lack of overt contradictions. Both parties, led by experienced leaders, advocate for similar economic policies, although the SLPP adopts a nationalistic facade. Notably, the key disparity lies in the SLPP’s adeptness in making emotional appeals, strategically leveraging Sinhala votes and invoking a sense of ultra-nationalism. In contrast, the UNP, under Ranil’s leadership, takes the lead in courting minority votes. The intricate dynamics of emotional appeals and voting strategies distinguish the UNP and SLPP in the current political landscape. While the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) aligns closely with these economic management policies, all three forces, UNP, SLPP and SJB reflect a broader right or center-right outlook.

In a departure from traditional approaches, the Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) stands on its head when expressing a willingness to collaborate with the IMF. Their ideological outlook tilts towards the center-left, rather than the extreme left, despite the significant influence of the Marxist JVP within the coalition. Although their differences from other political entities have diminished, a distinctive feature remains their limited administrative experience, having not governed beyond the council level.

Consequently, voters are likely to prioritize candidates with a proven track record of minimal corruption and a strong focus on effective economic management. Thus, the hands-on experience of candidates is expected to carry considerable weight in the eyes of the electorate.

Source: Reuters

Europe: Elections are scheduled in Portugal, Belgium, European Parliament, Croatia, Romania, and Austria. According to analysts, Eurosceptic far-right parties are gaining momentum, potentially impacting the European Union’s legislative decisions. Market risks include potential effects on Italian stocks and bonds if eurosceptic parties gain influence, affecting European integration.

Russia: Presidential election is scheduled on March 17, with Vladimir Putin expected to secure another term. Putin’s stance on the war in Ukraine may influence international market sentiment. Potential risks include Western governments considering seizing frozen Russian assets, leading to retaliatory measures from Russia.

Turkey: Local elections are scheduled on March 31. Economic reforms have started to attract international investors, but concerns exist about a weak Lira (Turkish currency), and high inflation. Potential risks include political uncertainty, given President Erdogan’s history of personnel changes in economic positions.

India: National elections are expected in April-May (exact date to be confirmed). Narendra Modi expected to win a third term, with potential market risks related to persistent inflation and fiscal policies.

Mexico: Presidential election is scheduled on June 2, involving a full Congress reshuffle. Incumbent party (Morena) and its candidate have a double-digit lead, but increased spending could impact the Peso (Mexican currency) and government bonds.

South Africa: Elections are scheduled between May and August 2024 (exact date to be confirmed). Ruling African National Congress faces challenges, and economic issues may lead to a coalition government. Market risks include concerns about debt levels, social spending, and currency weakness.

 

United States: Presidential election is scheduled on November 5, with predictions of a Trump-Biden rematch. Potential market risks include social unrest, impacts on consumer sentiment, and currency fluctuations based on election probabilities.

Britain: Elections are expected by the end of 2024. Labour party leading in polls, potential risks related to economic stagnation, fiscal policies, and changes in planning rules.


Venezuela: Presidential election is expected in 2024 (exact date to be confirmed). Incumbent Maduro has an advantage, but potential market risks include U.S. sanctions, debt restructuring, and the impact on Venezuelan stocks and bonds.

The outcomes of these elections are poised to unleash a political storm, characterized by a wind of right or center-right ideologies. This impending wave of political change is anticipated to exert influence not only on the economies, policies, and international relations of the respective countries but also on the broader geopolitical landscape. As investors and markets keenly observe these global events, the potential shifts in political landscapes and policy directions are likely to reverberate, significantly impacting the political situation in Sri Lanka and nudging it more towards a center-right position, diminishing chances for leftist politics.

Impact of IMF’s stand

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) assessment and recommendations for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery hold significant implications for the country’s upcoming elections. The $2.9 billion bailout loan agreement from the IMF signals a step towards recovery from Sri Lanka’s worst financial crisis in decades. However, the IMF emphasizes the need for the swift finalization of agreements with official lenders and a resolution with external private creditors.

As Sri Lanka navigates economic challenges, including the introduction of a progressive property tax and VAT adjustments, these measures could become central issues in the electoral landscape. The IMF’s call for fair burden-sharing, sustainable reforms, and strengthened tax administration underscores the importance of fiscal policies that directly impact citizens.

Sri Lanka’s ability to stay the course on economic reforms will not only impact its financial stability but could also play a pivotal role in the broader narrative of political leadership and governance during the elections.

Cost of living

Sri Lanka’s consumer price inflation rate rising to 4.2% year-on-year in December, driven by increasing food prices, can have several impacts on the upcoming elections. The inflationary pressures, particularly in food prices, may contribute to economic anxieties among voters. The government’s decision to raise the value-added tax (VAT) to 18% from 15% to meet revenue targets could become a contentious issue. The decision of the central bank to leave key policy rates (SDFR 9% and SLFR 10%) unchanged is significant and may be a point of discussion in the electoral context, with voters assessing the government’s economic strategies and the effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling inflation.

Conclusions

To assess the potential impact of global elections on Sri Lanka’s forthcoming political landscape, an exploration into the economic trajectories of key political entities becomes imperative. Unlike past practices where Presidential elections took precedence, speculation surrounds the prioritization of impending general elections. Four prominent political forces—UNP, SLPP, SJB, and JJB—emerge as influential players, each harboring very similar economic policies and visions. UNP and SLPP have a subtle difference, and SJB closely follows their economic policies, collectively reflecting a broader right or center-right outlook.

In a paradigm shift, the JJB, expressing a willingness to collaborate with the IMF, stands on its head ideologically, leaning towards center-left despite the Marxist JVP’s significant influence. Despite diminished differences with other entities, their limited administrative experience remains a distinct disadvantage.

Potential market risks associated with worldwide elections, spanning currency fluctuations, government bonds, inflation, and geopolitical ramifications, underscore the intricate connections between global politics and economics. The IMF’s bailout signals a recovery path, with an emphasis on finalizing agreements and addressing private creditor issues becoming pivotal. Government commitment to fiscal reforms, including a progressive property tax and VAT adjustments, shapes electoral discourse.

Central themes of economic concerns, policy decisions, and inflation debates take center stage, with voters scrutinizing the government’s economic management. The Central Bank’s role and recovery narratives add layers to the discussion, emphasizing the intricate relationship between economic indicators and political outcomes.

Finally, voter priorities should be in favour of candidates with a corruption-free track record and a focus on effective economic management.

(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT University, Malabe. He is also the author of the “Doing Social Research and Publishing Results”, a Springer publication (Singapore), and “Samaja Gaveshakaya (in Sinhala). The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the institution he works for. He can be contacted at saliya.a@slit.lk and www.researcher.com)



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‘The devil is in the details’ in West Asian peace

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President Donald Trump at the current G7 summit in France. Evelyn Hockstein/Getty Image

It is obviously too early for an outpouring of joy over the seeming cessation of hostilities between the main antagonists in West Asia. While the prospect of there being a measure of calm in the region is being welcomed by considerable sections of the international community, what is ‘on the table’ currently is only a Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran to give peace a chance. The hard part in the peace effort remains to be achieved.

In the Middle East of today we have one of the most complex conflicts to break out in modern international politics and the observer would be naive in the extreme to expect a facile and early closure to the tangle. Yet, for the sake of the world’s publics who have been hurting badly in the prolonged hostilities one could only hope that the US-Iran MoU that is expected to be signed by the sides on Friday would lead eventually to a substantive peace. The world’s thanks are due to Pakistan in this connection for its sustained support in the peace drive.

While the sides have agreed to a ceasing of hostilities in the most general terms and have reached accord on the facilitation of uninterrupted oil and gas supplies to the rest of the world, for instance, the ‘devil will prove to be in the details’ in an envisaged comprehensive peace settlement. It is these details that would make or break peace if the negotiations go on in earnest.

Nevertheless, the details would need to be worked out consensually in a spirit of compromise with an eye to the greater good of the world community. Realpolitik or a narrow focus on solely the national interest among the protagonists, for example, would need to give way to a measure of humanity that would encompass within it a consideration of the overall well being of the world. In other words, it is statesmanship that would crucially matter.

The next few weeks would establish whether humanists are ‘asking for far too much’ when they broach the questions at issue in these terms. Yet it is essentially self interest and national security considerations of the first importance that drove the conflict from even prior to February this year and these questions would need to be taken up and resolved to the satisfaction of the US and Iran in the main if some headway is to be made towards a durable settlement.

The nuclear issue would prove to be the proverbial Gordian Knot. From a realistic viewpoint, Iran could not be expected to be without a potential nuclear deterrent in the face of perceived nuclear threats emanating for it from the West and Israel. In the short term, Iran would need to possess this deterrent to a measure, within a mutually agreed international legal framework maybe, until wide agreement is reached on the nuclear tangle. Specifically, Iran’s immediate threat perceptions with regard to her nuclear-powered rivals would need to be defused during initial negotiations.

Ideally it is a world free of nuclear weapons that must be aimed at but since this goal cannot be achieved in the near or medium terms, unfolding negotiations would need to ensure Iran’s absolute security in a world of powers that continue to swear by the nuclear deterrent, if it is to give up the suspected latter capability.

However, it is to the degree to which the present nuclear powers divest themselves of this capability that Iran could be put at ease on this score. Accordingly, it is nothing short of a complete elimination of nuclear weapons from the world that could dissuade keenly security conscious states from developing nuclear weapons of their own with a mass destruction capability.

This is the number one dilemma the international community needs to grapple with going forward and it is to the extent to which it resolves it that a nuclear weapons free world could be envisaged. No doubt, an uphill challenge.

Compelling Israel to support the present negotiatory process constitutes another grueling challenge for the US. Currently the Iranian position essentially is that a Middle East peace is inseparable from a normalization of the security situation in Lebanon. That is, the present Israeli attacks on the Hezbollah presence in Lebanon must cease if a comprehensive peace is to be realized in West Asia.

However, Israel is showing no signs of drawing back from its attacks on Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon since the security of the Israeli state is being seen as threatened by the militant group. Co-opting Israel into the negotiatory effort therefore would turn out to be a matter of paramount concern for the US.

Moreover, elements in the rightist administration in Israel are seeing the current peace efforts as a ‘sell out’ to the enemies of Israel. They would have none of it. It is left to be seen how the US would be managing these virtual storm centres in the diplomatic process that could very well bring down the overall purported peace drive.

A recent pronouncement by US Vice President J.D. Vance points to yet another problem area in the US’ current peace overtures. He said that, ‘Regional peace and stability includes stopping the funding of terrorist organizations.’ He was obviously referring to the support extended by Iran to Hezbollah when he mentioned ‘terrorist organizations’ but he has given fresh life to the age-old conundrum of ‘Who is a terrorist?’ by these words.

To the Netanyahu government the Hezbollah and other militant organizations fighting Israel are ‘terrorists’ but from the viewpoint of the Iranian regime they are ‘freedom fighters’. This seemingly insurmountable definitional issue would not only stubbornly bedevil the peace effort but could even figure in bringing about its collapse, unless judiciously handled.

Thus, it’s the thorny details that need to be watched to keep the West Asian peace process afloat, once it gets going in earnest. There is no doubt that US President Trump would be receiving a considerable amount of support from the G7 in this historic peace undertaking and his personal appeals to the grouping currently meeting in France for continuous support are likely to elicit a positive response from it.

Likewise, Trump would need to appeal to also the BRICS countries if almost total global support is to be garnered for the peace drive in West Asia. BRICS’ solidarity with the US and the West is likely to carry considerable weight with Iran and other Eastern actors who are key to a sustained peace drive in the Middle East.

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Sri Lanka’s elephant paradox: Govt. counts tourism dollars while playing a dangerous numbers game: Expert

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At a time when Sri Lanka is enjoying a resurgence in wildlife tourism, with elephants remaining the undisputed stars of the country’s national parks and one of its most marketable natural assets, elephant conservationist Supun Lahiru Prakash has sounded a stark warning: the nation is in danger of losing the very species that helps attract millions of tourism dollars while sustaining some of the island’s most important ecosystems.

Supun says repeated claims by authorities that Sri Lanka’s elephant population is increasing, despite the absence of a final survey report and amid continuing elephant deaths, risk creating a misleading narrative that could undermine conservation efforts and encourage retaliation against elephants.

According to Supun, the issue is not merely about numbers. It is about political priorities, scientific credibility and the future of one of Sri Lanka’s most iconic species.

“Repeatedly claiming that the elephant population is increasing appears to be an attempt to hide the Government’s inability to manage the rising annual elephant death rate and the complications of human-elephant conflict,” Supun said.

For decades, the Sri Lankan elephant has been a symbol of the country’s rich natural heritage. It is the centrepiece of wildlife tourism, drawing visitors from across the globe to national parks such as Yala, Udawalawe, Minneriya, Kaudulla and Wilpattu. International wildlife documentaries, tourism campaigns and social media promotions frequently place elephants at the heart of Sri Lanka’s nature tourism brand.

Yet, according to Supun, the country’s conservation policies do not reflect the value of the species.

“On one hand, the Government is enjoying increasing tourism revenue, and elephants remain one of Sri Lanka’s most important wildlife attractions. On the other hand, narratives are being promoted that could encourage retaliation against the very species that contributes significantly to the country’s tourism industry,” Supun said.

According to the First Countrywide National Survey of Elephants conducted in 2011, Sri Lanka had 5,879 elephants. However, official statistics show that 4,167 elephants died between 2012 and 2024.

Supun stressed that these figures represent only the deaths officially recorded by the Department of Wildlife Conservation.

“In a context where more than 70 percent of the country’s elephant population reported in 2011 has died within 13 years, it is difficult to accept claims that the population has increased,” Supun said.

The conservationist pointed out that elephants have the longest gestation period among land mammals and that scientific studies have reported increasing interbirth intervals among female elephants together with high calf mortality.

“When such biological realities are taken into consideration, claims of a dramatic increase in elephant numbers become difficult to understand,” Supun said.

Supun believes that repeated references to increasing elephant populations risk fuelling public hostility towards elephants, particularly among farming communities already affected by crop raids and property damage.

“Such claims can create the impression that elephant populations are exploding and thereby promote retaliation against elephants as well,” Supun said.

According to Supun, Sri Lanka’s elephant crisis cannot be understood solely through population estimates. The real issue lies in the country’s failure to address human-elephant conflict through long-term, science-based solutions.

Sri Lanka continues to record among the highest levels of human-elephant conflict in the world. Every year, hundreds of elephants and dozens of people lose their lives as competition for land and resources intensifies.

Despite the scale of the crisis, Supun says authorities continue to rely on strategies that have repeatedly failed.

Lahiru Prakash

These include driving elephants into protected areas, strengthening electric fences to confine them there and allocating additional manpower to maintain fencing systems.

Supun was also critical of several proposals that emerged from district-level discussions on conflict mitigation, including the sowing of paddy and corn using Air Force drones and the planting of fruit orchards within protected areas.

“Such proposals fail to address the real ecological and social dimensions of the conflict,” Supun said.

While welcoming reports that the Government intends appointing a national-level mechanism to tackle human-elephant conflict, Supun said the challenge required intervention at the highest level of government.

“Given the gravity, complexity and geographical spread of human-elephant conflict, appointing any committee other than a Presidential Task Force is not useful,” Supun said.

He argued that a Presidential Task Force chaired by either the President or the Secretary to the President would be better positioned to overcome the bureaucratic delays and institutional fragmentation that have hindered previous efforts.

Supun also stressed the urgent need to restore and protect elephant corridors and home ranges that allow elephants to move safely across landscapes.

He cited the Koholankala elephant corridor in Hambantota as one example where removing obstacles could help reduce conflict while improving habitat connectivity.

At the same time, Supun questioned policies that permit the allocation of forest lands in areas identified by environmental assessments as crucial elephant ranges and movement corridors.

“The opening of elephant corridors and the protection of elephant home ranges must be carried out scientifically and consistently if they are to succeed,” Supun said.

Beyond tourism, Supun emphasised the ecological importance of elephants.

“Elephants are ecosystem engineers. Through their feeding habits and movements, they help maintain habitats that support numerous other species. In many ways, they create safer and healthier environments for wildlife,” Supun said.

According to Supun, protecting elephants means protecting entire ecosystems and the biodiversity upon which Sri Lanka’s wildlife tourism industry depends.

“By protecting elephants, we are also protecting the biodiversity that makes Sri Lanka one of the world’s premier wildlife tourism destinations,” Supun said.

As Sri Lanka seeks to expand tourism earnings and strengthen its reputation as a wildlife destination, Supun believes the country faces a defining choice: continue with policies that have failed to stem elephant deaths and human-elephant conflict, or embrace a science-based conservation strategy that safeguards both people and wildlife.

Without a fundamental shift in policy and political will, Supun warned, Sri Lanka risks losing not only one of its most iconic species but also the ecological and economic benefits that elephants continue to provide.

“The suffering of both farmers and elephants will only intensify unless meaningful action replaces rhetoric,” Supun said.

 

By Ifham Nizam

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Top Model of the World 2026

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Back-to-back victory for Colombia

Katherine Castaño of Colombia claimed the Top Model of the World 2026 crown, securing a historic back-to-back victory for her country. Angelica Sanchez of Puerto Rico was named first runner-up, and Eunice Deza of the Philippines finished as second runner-up.

Katherine was crowned by outgoing titleholder Natalia Garizabal Vera of Colombia.

Several special category awards, and subsidiary titles, were also presented during the Top Model of the World 2026 pageant.

These awards recognised excellence in modelling, peer support, and regional representation.

Primary Subsidiary Titles

Sri Lanka’s Netalie Withanage: Top 16 at
the grand finale

Miss Globe 2026: Valentina Tabares (Ecuador) — Awarded to the contestant who perfectly balances fashion modelling with traditional beauty queen qualities.

Queen of Europe 2026: Mia Danielle Williams (United Kingdom) — Given to the highest-ranking candidate from a European nation.

Special Awards Recognition

Audience Iconic Award: Charly (Dominican Republic) — Won via the official public online vote, granting her a fast-track direct entry into the Top 6.

Exotic Model of the World: Angel Emeka (Nigeria) — Awarded for exceptional editorial presence and strong runway performance.

Best Body Award: Thailand — Voted directly by fellow contestants at the Flow Spectrum Hotel. The highest-ranking runners-up for this category included Zambia, South Africa, Colombia, and Ghana.

Angelica Sanchez (Puerto Rico): 1st Runner-up

Final Placement

Winner: Katherine Castaño (Colombia)

1st Runner-Up: Angelica Sanchez (Puerto Rico)

2nd Runner-Up: Eunice Deza (Philippines)

Top 6 Finalists: Included contestants from the Dominican Republic, Romania, and Germany.

The pageant, known for focusing on professional modelling careers over just beauty, brought together 36 models from around the globe for two weeks of runway, photoshoots, and cultural events.

Sri Lanka’s Netalie Withanage walked among 36 of the world’s best and powered her way into the Top 16 at the grand finale.

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