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Widespread mafia activities delay recovery from crisis

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by Prof. Tissa Vitarana

An increasing number of people in Sri Lanka are facing greater and greater hardships due to the massive economic, social and political crises. Both external and internal factors are responsible, mainly the shortage of both Dollars (Foreign Exchange) and Rupees facing the Government and the people. The high degree of fraudulent Mafia activities in the Government Service is aggravating the situation as divulged by COPA and COPE.

The lack of Dollars is leading to shortages and high prices of essential imports like fuel, gas, medicines. and food. The main cause of the Dollar shortage is the large accumulated debt of USS 52 Billion. As annual debt servicing amounts to about $ 7 Billion our foreign reserves have come down from S 8 Billion to near zero. This in turn is leading the government to take more loans from the IMF. World Bank and other multilateral lending institutions. This will add to our debt burden while failing to solve our immediate Dollar need. To meet this immediate need the government is resorting to Sovereign Bond Loans which carry very high interest rates and have to be paid in a short period. The final outcome will be that Sri Lanka will be caught in debt trap, from which it is hard to escape. The USA, UK and Japan have agreed to help but the amounts that they are willing to supply are not adequate to meet our needs.

 The Government’s reluctance to obtain oil and gas supplies from Russia at very low cost for fear of displeasing the USA is the height of folly. This would also have the advantage of being done using the currencies of Russia and Sri Lanka, the Rouble and the Rupee, without the need for US Dollars. The Chinese remain ready to help us. But they too are not being accommodated with any sense of goodwill. The Government seems to have opted to get our oil and gas needs at much higher cost from the Middle East. I fear that we shall get further into the debt trap and suffer both in the near and distant future.

The shortage of Rupees has led to the large scale printing of local currency notes, which has boosted inflation and increased the cost of living. The policy of the government to support and encourage the traders has led to a further rise in prices due to profiteering by middlemen. In contrast, the LSSP leader Dr. N.M. Perera, as the Finance Minister in the SLFP/LSSP/CP Coalition Government overcame the severe economic crisis of 1972/3, together with T.B. Illangaratna, he strengthened the Cooperative Movement, both producer as well as consumer. Thereby eliminating the profiteering of the middlemen. The farmer and entrepreneur got a fair price for his produce while the consumer got a fair deal. As essential food items were available at reasonable price the people did not go hungry. But regrettably the present government is not ready to intervene as Dr. N.M. Perera did and the outcome is that a majority of people are going hungry, If this situation continues there will be starvation and deaths. Therefore I appeal to the government to strengthen the cooperative movement and revive the Food Control Department.

The time has come for the government to take stern action to reform the Administrative Service so that the increasing Mafia activities by sections of the service, supported by some politicians which is increasing could be controlled. As the earlier Chairman of COPA, I was shocked by the extent of the frauds and corruption existing that led to a massive shortage of government income. For instance several of the largest companies, including one private bank, have not paid income tax for 6 to7 years. This was due to three Boards of Appeal being set up in the recent past in the Inland Revenue Department, each of which enables a company to avoid the payment for a period of 1 1/2 years or more. Thus this delay , I have no doubt, is the result of collusion between some of the officials and the companies. I recommended that there should be only one Board of Appeal and it should give its conclusions within 6 months, and that the lower amount the company considered reasonable (not less than half the tax that had been demanded) should be paid upfront on the due date. I regret to state that though more than a year has passed my recommendation to the Minister of Finance has not been implemented. In the 1972-73 crisis there was only one Board of Appeal and Dr. N.M. Perera acted firmly but fairly.

He was able to restore a balanced budget by 1974 and end his final year, 1975, as Minister of Finance by achieving a surplus, which was even appreciated by IMF. The foreign exchange reserve that had fallen was restored to nearly $4 billion, and Sri Lanka was able to overcome the crisis without getting further into debt, but was able to purchase 7 to 8 ships to handle our foreign trade. I must mention that the imperialist powers that did not raise a finger to help us to get through the crisis met the PM Sirimavo Bandaranaike, and said now that the economy has become stable they would help the with FDI, but on the condition that Dr. N.M. Perera and the LSSP were thrown out of the government. Though this was done. FDI did not come and the country did not develop, resulting in a massive defeat at the 1977 general election which enabled the pro- American JR Jaywardene (Yankee Dickey) led UNP government to come into power.

My COPA investigations showed that massive frauds and corruption are prevalent in every Department or institutions that we summoned. To give an example, in the Customs Department, Mercedes Benz luxury models were treated as dual purpose vehicle and given an HS code that was given to Ambulances, and a minimal duty was charged. This type of activity which is prevalent in nearly every Department and Institution, to a varying extent, has led to an officials-led matia arising supported by some politicians. Not surprisingly instead of achiewing growth in food production there has been a drop this year following the fertilizer fiasco. One can expect a further drop. Thus the food crisis leading to increased hunger, starvation and malnutrition will further increase, with the continuing shortage of fuel and chemical fertilizer. To make matters worse with the closure of private enterprises and job losses, there had been a significant increase of crime and drug trafficking.

The emigration of valuable professionals like doctors (with an estimated migration of 4000 this year) and of educated youth is resulting in a severe brain drain that would have a serious impact on the society as a whole. The socioeconomic crisis is bound to lead to further massive protests. Based on past experience it is very likely that President Ranil Wickramasinghe will come down hard, even using guns to crush any protest, leading to violence and bloodshed. Peaceful protests must be allowed.

Therefore it is essential that this Government be changed and a progressive government with a clear policy that would successfully meet this crisis be formed The LSSP is now a part of a new alliance of seven parties, named the Uttara Lanka Sabhagaya. It has been agreed that each member party would be free to come out publicly with its own policies, and if the need arises contest separately in constituencies where it is strong and the others are weak. This flexibility would enable us to contest several local bodies, and even at provincial and national level using our Key symbol. At the inauguration I made it clear that as an alliance we stood against racial religious and cast prejudice, as one Sri Lankan Nation. Unlike previous progressive alliances which were dominated by SLFP or SLPP, this danger will not exist with the new alliance.



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Govt plans to hire 121,000 state workers, redistribute tax revenue

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MONETABRIEF –Sri Lanka plans to hire 121,000 state workers to fill identified vacancies over the next year as part of plans to return tax money to the economy President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has said.

For many years employment was restricted to the state service.

“We will not hire in a ad hoc manner (hithoo hithoo vidiyater),” President Dissanayake told a public rally in Akuressa.

“A committee under the Prime Minister and asked each agency what the vacancies were. Was it essential? Will these people stay with no work? We will hire 121,000 to the state service in that manner. This year. We have not hired all.”

“10,000 for the Police. 23,000 teachers. Then a young person in the village will get a job. A teacher will be there. They will get an economic strength. They will join the police.

“Next year we will give a special allowance to police in the budget. They work 18 hours. They will get a uniform with a batton and kid. When the jobs are created, economic opportunities will be created.

“Then the benefits that the economy got will to the people.”

When Sri Lanka defaulted around 80 percent of the tax revenues went to pay state worker salaries and pensions after rising to 50 percent when the stimulus for economic growth (potential output targeting) initially started.

With more money in the Treasury capital expenditure will also be increased to 2,000 billion rupees in the 2027 budget.

Sri Lanka is planning to build some expressways with domestic financing which may trigger more imports and require higher interest rates to maintain external stability.

Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa also pushed to hire more unemployment graduate in parliament transferring more taxes collected from the people to able bodied population.

Analysts had warned that ‘revenue based fiscal consolidation’ was a spurious doctrine as spending will catch up to match revenue.

Generally called Parkinson’s Second Law, the phenomenon was articulated by Nortcote C Parkinson in an article in the Economist magazine in 1955 when he was working at the Raffles University campus in Singapore (now NUS).

Sri Lanka went on a revenue based fiscal consolidation drive from 2015 and eventually defaulted as ‘policy support’ intensified with aggressive central bank activism under a 5 percent inflation target after the agency was taught by the IMF to calculate potential output targeting.

In Sri Lanka politicians are against printing money but macro-economists support high inflation and monetary depreciation. When people are impoverished by depreciation and the high inflation target of the central bank, Aswesuma (income support) benefits are increased.

In 2026 the rupee collapsed to 330 to the US dollar from 300 a year earlier as the government ran a budget surplus.

Macro-economists who cut rates had blamed budget deficits for external trouble since money printing to suppress interest rates started in 1952. What is now called ‘rate cuts’ were not invented at the time.

Meanwhile another method of spending money in the Treasury was to give subsidies, President Dissanayake said. The subsidies will however be targeted to the deserving.

These included persons affected by kidney disease, orphans in care who will get 5,000 rupee a month deposited into their accounts and 2 million rupee when they leave the home to build a house.

The time in the care home had been extended from 18 to 21 years, he said.

It was not a good idea to give subsidies to all, President Disssanayake said.

However, even in rich countries there were a section of the population that had to be supported and others who faced sudden crises in their lives.

Politicians in Sri Lanka are against money printing and pushing up the cost of living, but are unable to do anything as the central bank is independent and has a 5-7 percent.

The International Monetary Fund has supported Sri Lanka’s controversial 5-7 inflation target which was to have been revised in October, delivering a blow to advocates who want monetary stability, free trade and democratic rule for the country.

The central bank exceeded its target and pushed up inflation to 8 percent in 2026.

Though opposed inflation and being prepared to raised taxes, politicians in a democratic set up dominated by are they are under pressure to spend, whenever tax revenues increase.

Macro-economists also push politicians to engage in capital spending not for benefits that come after a project is completed, as in the classical period, but for the instant gratification of the ‘multiplier effect’ of Keynesian stimulus or what is called ‘policy support’ by the IMF.

The thinking of macro-economists well-articulated in ‘revenue based fiscal consolidation’ which was rejects the classical ‘spending based consolidation’ match political needs.

Many western nations including the US, which has been in the grip of stimulus advocates over over 20 years are now drifting towards debt crises with uncontrollable inflation under so-called ample reserve regimes operated by central banks.

Sri Lanka first started to go to the IMF in the 1960s as US macro-economists in particular started to push ‘full employment’ policies leading to the collapse of the Bretton Woods a few year later.

“Past experience in Ceylon, which is in line with experience in virtually all parts of the world, is that in a democratic set up political and other pressures are heavily on the side of more and more spending by the government,” B R Shenoy, a classical economist told the then Ceylon government in a policy document in 1966.

“When Revenues increase, under the weight of these pressures, expenditures too increase to meet, or even exceed, Revenue collections. In Ceylon during the past seven years Revenues rose by 45 per cent and Expenditures charged to Revenues by 48 per cent.

“There is a real danger that any programme for increased Revenue collections may be attended by a corresponding increase in the consumption expenditures of the government, and little may be left of the additional Revenues to cover Budget deficits.”

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Parliament clears 22A amid protests

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The government secured the required two-thirds majority in Parliament on Friday to pass the Twenty-Second Amendment to the Constitution Bill, despite opposition from the SJB, the ITAK, the SLPP, the SLMC, and other opposition parties.

The Bill received 158 votes in favour and 63 against. The Judicature (Amendment) Bill was also passed by the same margin.

The two Bills were passed following a two-day parliamentary debate and several hours of voting, with Opposition MPs calling for separate divisions on clauses of the Judicature (Amendment) Bill during the Committee Stage. The final vote on that Bill was announced around 8.08 p.m.

The 22nd Amendment provides for increasing the retirement age of Supreme Court judges from 65 to 67 and that of Court of Appeal judges from 63 to 65. The Chief Justice would retire at 67 or after six years in office, whichever comes first.

The Supreme Court determined that the constitutional amendment did not require a referendum and could be passed with a special two-thirds majority. It also determined that the Judicature (Amendment) Bill could be passed by a simple majority.

The Bills were presented for their Second Reading on Thursday by Justice and National Integration Minister Harshana Nanayakkara.

The SJB mounted a strong protest against the legislation, with its MPs wearing black in Parliament yesterday and party members staging a demonstration at Polduwa Junction, Battaramulla.

Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa and several SJB politicians participated in the protest held under the theme “No to 22, which destroys democracy”.

ITAK and SLMC MPs voted against the Bills alongside the SJB.NDF MPs Ravi Karunanayake and Faizer Musthapha and SJB Badulla District MP Nayana Wasalathilaka were absent during the voting.

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Sajith likens 22A to ‘Emperor’s New Clothes’

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Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa yesterday likened the Government’s justification of the proposed 22nd Amendment to Hans Christian Andersen’s “The Emperor’s New Clothes”, claiming that the amendment would undermine judicial independence, democracy and the separation of powers.

Speaking in Parliament during the debate on the 22nd Amendment, Premadasa said the Government portrayed the constitutional amendment as a measure aimed at protecting democracy, but alleged that its actual effect would be to strengthen executive influence over the Judiciary.

He said the amendment would erode public confidence in judges and turn the Judiciary into a “tool and puppet” of the Executive.

Premadasa recalled the constitutional changes introduced through the 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th and 21st Amendments, arguing that executive powers had been repeatedly reduced and restored under successive governments.

He also criticised politicians who had supported several of those amendments while continuing to receive public support at elections.

The Opposition Leader referred to the impeachment of former Chief Justice Shirani Bandaranayake and accused those who had supported her removal of later taking positions in favour of judicial independence.

He also referred to a court order concerning the holding of local government elections, saying some politicians who had previously defended judicial independence had subsequently called for judges who issued the order to be summoned before a Parliamentary Select Committee.

Premadasa said the Samagi Jana Balawegaya had consistently defended judicial independence in both instances.

He also questioned the Government’s proposal to extend the retirement age of senior judges, saying no proper study had been conducted to justify the measure. He referred to a 2023 Asian Development Bank study, claiming that extending judges’ retirement age had not been identified as a solution to problems facing the Judiciary.

The Opposition Leader further questioned the Government’s position that a referendum was unnecessary for the 22nd Amendment, recalling arguments made by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in support of a referendum during the 20th Amendment process.

The Supreme Court has determined that the 22nd Amendment Bill does not require approval at a referendum under Article 83 of the Constitution, while requiring certain textual changes to the Bill.

Premadasa also accused the Government of departing from its manifesto pledge to abolish the executive presidency and alleged that it was instead seeking to increase executive influence over state institutions.

He urged the Government to withdraw the Bill, alleging that it would weaken checks and balances and move the country towards one-party rule.

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