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Why is Singapore dollar strong and SL rupee weak?

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by Jayampathy Molligoda

Inflation is too high in Sri Lanka; people are finding it unbearable. How can we control the inflation from further slipping?

Singapore experience and structure of our CBSL:

 Singapore has the Monetary Authority Singapore (‘MAS’) as their Central Bank, where in Sri Lanka, we have the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (which is not a body corporate in legal terms) and within the CBSL, they have the ‘Monetary Board’. Basically, the Singapore Central Bank (MAS) has managed to keep the inflation under control even during this period of global economic recession, where most of the other countries have not been able to contain the inflation. The Singapore used the exchange rate to influence inflation, not the other way around.

 Our view is that there must be a sound, practical and legal mechanism guaranteeing the independence of the CB whilst making the CBSL accountable and transparent as in the case of MAS. John Exter, the founding Governor of the Central Bank of Ceylon, in his report stated that Governor of the Central Bank should be of unquestioned integrity and responsibility. This is very critical because an independent CB is essential for maintaining price stability, meaning containing inflationary pressure.

 As for maintaining the price stability objective, the simplest test is whether CB can continue to resist demands from the government of the day to print money and/or continue to maintain low interest rate regime when a higher interest rate is necessary to maintain price stability. This is because the government of the day would naturally tend to push economic growth rates to run at a faster rate than its capacity limit permits and their desire to incur budget deficits try to secure funds by borrowing from CB. Ours is somewhat politicized.

 However, the reality is most of the economic activities will come to a grinding halt if CBSL doesn’t print new money for the government. Besides the suffering of the people on the road, non- repatriation, avoiding sovereign breaches, not letting money market domino effect failure, payment to foreign parties, all of these have to be considered. No salary payments to government servants for a particular month if money printing is stopped.

Why can’t our CB do the same thing as MAS?

 Sri Lankan situation is totally different because it has a persistently high ‘twin deficits’ meaning (1) government budget deficits since independence and (2) BOP current account deficit with rest of the world. And CB has been compelled to resort to ‘money printing’ more that the required/ desired level and continue to borrow, thus increasing foreign debt service beyond unsustainable levels.

 The real issue has been that our Exports as a % of GDP has come down from closer to 28% in four to five decades to 12% especially since 2014 to date. Now GDP real per capita is coming down. We were boosting US $ 25 billion has increased to US $ 75 billion within 10 years, but it was through services and high spending on infrastructure development without corresponding increases in return on such investments by way of increased exports.

CBSL policy towards curbing inflation:

 Since August 21, CB has been trying to control inflation by way of increasing bank interest rates through increasing CB rates and Statutory reserve ratios (tightening the monetary policy accelerated wef March 22, however. this badly affects SMEs – the micro and small and medium enterprises have serious issues in the area of access to financial facilities or in simple terms, borrowing costs are so high that they cannot afford to borrow any more. Depending on whether the marketable – products of these businesses are in the “buyers; market’ or “sellers’ market” they could either survive or eventually collapse- only the ‘rich’ become richer (only in certain sectors) because they are in possession of own surplus money – they earn a substantial amount as interest income at current deposit rates and also have the option of keeping dollars without repatriation as stipulated in the relevant directives issued under Monetary Law Act of 1949. This is despite the rupee exchange rate was allowed to be flexible and floated from Rs 203/ per $ and now it’s Rs 368/.

  Further, during the period 2019 till august 2021, the private sector was benefited under low tax rates and low bank interest regime, where they borrowed rupee loans at 4-6 %, otherwise the exporters were compelled to go for $$ packing credit for financing export orders. In my view, our private sector is smarter than the government policy makers and some top officials in the financial/banking sector. It was the private sector who insisted that SL rupee should be floated not even a “managed float currency policy. Are we now getting the export proceeds according to the applicable regulations and if not, does the CB strictly enforce penalties for non- compliance?

Two News items published on 29/07/22:

“Earnings from merchandise exports increased by 20% Y-o-Y to USD 1,208.2 Mn in June 2022 as per data released by Sri Lanka Customs, mainly due to increase in earnings from export of Apparel & Textiles (1/2)”

  “World Bank does not plan to offer new financing to Sri Lanka until an adequate macroeconomic policy framework is in place – WB”

 Sri Lankan Export industries such as textile and apparel, tea sub sector, minor export crops, etc., should be able to be more competitive in the global market place due to the policy of currency depreciation wef 7 March 22 from Rs 203/-  to around Rs 368 (at present), but the associated local costs including the import content of the export value chain and the additional costs due to difficulties in ‘doing business’ under current conditions tend to move up sharply in the near future, thus eroding the cost competitiveness enjoyed by our exporters. As for doing business, one of the most critical current issues has been the shortage of fuel. It is in that context only the importance of making available sufficient FOREX income, be set aside for importation of fuel on a monthly basis, say US$ 300 million, should be viewed. Now that the backlog of LCs being cleared and most of the payments have been made and the incoming $$$ are now being reserved, it is important to set aside a part of export proceeds towards meeting fuel bills on a monthly basis.

Vital information on ‘FOREX’ monitoring not made available yet:

Stemming from the above argument, the CB’s priority number one should be to ensure whether export proceeds in dollars are received within the stipulated timeframes and in accordance with the directives issued under Monetary Law Act of 1949. In fact, the CB mandate by law is ensuring price stability and financial system stability and management of FOREX is the critical success factor here.

In August 21, then Governor Prof WDL appointed a working committee and liaised with customs and started putting in place the EPMS. (As far as direct documentation of export (‘cusdecs’) is concerned, the commercial banks do not receive those docs and what they can monitor is what they actually receive as proceeds only, that’s why this ICT system is needed.)

 It seems that export proceeds monitoring system (EPMS) is still not functioning at CB level. Also, CB doesn’t provide the information on actual amounts of foreign exchange proceeds received on a monthly basis.

According to the Governor, CB, only about 20% of the FOREX is getting converted in to the banking system out of US$ 1,000 million export proceeds per month. It is not clear how much has actually received within the ‘180 day rule’ on a monthly basis AND how much converted.

The present Governor, CB is now making an appeal to exporters to remit all export proceeds and convert at least 50% of the proceeds after keeping $$ for ‘eligible expenditure’. It is expedient for the CB to advise the government to set aside (out of monthly export+ direct remittances) at least US$ 300 million per month for petroleum product imports and only the deficit if any, be funded through credit lines. In the meantime, our renewable energy sources must be explored with a view to reducing dependence on diesel and petroleum inputs.

 Apparently, the Strategy adopted by the Ministry of Finance on 12 April 22 by pre-emptive debt defaults announcement has created some negative sentiments as well. Fuel imports can only be done through advance payments. LCs cannot be opened without paying an advance as most of our banks are considered untrustworthy customers in the international trading operations.

Light at the end of the tunnel: 

We are into a vicious economic cycle. What is really worrisome is that there seems to be no serious process of problem identification by following a more scientific ‘research methodology’. First and foremost, we need to find out what went wrong? Some kind of a truth commission is needed. Our policymakers together with the private sector, the government and Opposition politicians all must get together to find out what went wrong without ‘blame assigning game’. Our policymakers must learn to admit that we don’t know fully the reasons, until a detailed analysis is done. No sustainable solutions can be expected in a situation where we all have full of ‘beliefs’ -some may be true others false, therefore the real facts need to be separated out from mere opinions based on beliefs although belief is the starting point of any intellectual thought process as claimed by world renowned philosopher, Bertrand Russell. No point in blaming politicians only – maybe as national leaders they have failed to provide transformational leadership and inspire other stakeholders to drive the economy. Also, successive governments have not created conducive environment for private sector to do business and improve economic welfare of the people, otherwise, it is the private sector that is managing the economy; at least 70% of the economic activities are undertaken by the private sector. Our private sector is capable of driving the businesses as ‘engine of growth’ for national economic development.

 What can the government do under the current circumstances?

The solution is for the government authorities to follow one important process, undertake some research using scientific methods to ascertain why we have failed. It is suggested the government appoint an ‘expert panel’. It should come out with immediate, short and medium- term strategic plan based on a long-term vision. But who is going to appoint this expert panel and who are the members? Ideally, it has to be a Presidential commission.

Treasury does not have any money at all and when CPC is held up with no payment to banks. That is why our economists have been advocating stringent fiscal measures be enforced by the government so that the government expenditure could be drastically reduced. Most of the state- owned enterprises (SOEs) need to be restructured by liberalising the sectors and put in place a more transparent system to look for ‘PPP projects’ to drive economic activities using under- performed state assets. However, these measures need to be taken after a due process of obtaining the final recommendations of the Presidential commission.

Social unrest, achieving political stability and economic revival:

What we have discussed up to now pertains to our economic problems, but we have major issues in socio-political arena. We need to admit that there are a number of genuine grievances coming out from the ordinary people and also a mass uprising against corruption and mismanagement of the governments, although no concrete evidence is forthcoming to justify these claims, that’s why the truth commission findings are important. On the other hand, there is this conspiracy theory that some unexplained, hidden and most powerful forces operating outside Sri Lanka are at work -may be trying to weaken the “STATE” and portray Sri Lanka as a failed state as articulated by the Head of SIS at a high- level meeting chaired by the President Ranil Wickremesinghe. Surely, there must be some valid reasons for the government under President, GR to adopt a ‘soft’ policy. We don’t know the ‘real things’ yet.

We have been hearing as a slogan that political stability is a prerequisite for achieving much needed economic growth and revival. However, the writer is of the view that in today’s context, it should be other way around. If the government of the day cannot provide basic needs of the people, at least fuel without people waiting in long queues, it will not be possible to restore political stability, and social unrest could further accelerate. That’s why some kind of economic revival is needed to fulfil ‘basic needs’ of the people to restore some kind of ‘political stability’. Otherwise this so-called ‘political stability’ becomes a mere superficial phrase.

In the meantime, it is the responsibility of the government of the day to uphold the constitutional provisions to the letter and spirit as stipulated in the Constitution of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka.

The authorities need to respect the different views of the people without resorting to suppress people’s non-violent socio-political movements, whilst maintaining law and order to safeguard the peoples’ sovereign rights guaranteed under our Constitution.



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Opinion

Pot calling the kettle black?

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Doctor Upul Wijayawardhana (eminent physician), posed a riddle for us. He wrote about that island Sri Lanka as ‘ this little dot in the ocean’ when deriding the remark of President Dissanayake who had said that Sri Lanka was a hunduva , a term that indicated a small volume: me hunduve inna puluvan da? (Can you live in this restricted space?) Most sensible people, even uneducated, judge that the volume of a little drop (of whatever) is smaller than that of a hunduva; so is weight. When the learned doctor emphatically maintains ‘….we are not a hunduva’ but ‘… a little dot in the ocean…’, is the pot calling the kettle black or worse?

Physically and population wise, Sri Lanka is neither ‘a little dot’ nor ‘a hunduva. This is all in the rich imaginations of Dissanayake and Wijayawardhana. I once counted that there were more than 50 members of the UN who were smaller than Sri Lanka in physical and population size. England was a sizeable island with a small population in the northwest corner of Europe in late 18th century when it began to become what China, with 1.3 billion people and jutting out to the Pacific, is now. From about 1850, when the population of Great Britain was about 20 million, less than that of Sri Lanka in 2026, it ruled more than half the world. Besides, do not forget Vanuatu, Kiribati, Cook Islands, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Lesotho and New Zealand (who habitually beats us at cricket). New Zealand with 5 million population played against 1.5 billion population India (1:300) for the T20 cricket championship a few weeks ago. I quietly wished New Zealand would win; so much for crap about dots in the Indian Ocean or the south Pacific.

Dr. Wijayawardhana also wrote about history and about ‘The achievements of Hunduwa’. The massive reservoirs and extensive irrigation systems in rajarata and ruhuna as well as the stupa are indeed tremendous works of irrigation and bear witness to superior ingenuity and organising ability, for the time they were built. They compare very well among structures elsewhere in the ancient world. Terms like ‘granary of the East’ must be taken with more than a grain of salt. Facile use of such terms does not take account of whatever shreds of evidence there is of adversity in those times. Monsoon Asia over the ages has more or less regularly suffered from floods, droughts and consequent famines. The last dire famine was in Bengal in 1944. The irrigation works in Lanka were a magnificent response to those phenomena. The modern response has been scientific agriculture making India a major grain exporter, from near famine conditions in 1973-74. Recall Indira Gandhi’s garibi hatao (eliminate poverty) speech to the General Assembly of the UN, that year.

The bhikkhu who wrote down the tripitaka in aluvihara did so because there was the threat of a severe famine in the course of which learned bhikkhu might have come to harm. Buddhist thought over centuries had been passed from generation to generation vocally (saamici patipanno bhagavato savaka (listener) sangho) and the departure from that tradition must have required a major threat of famine. There are stories of bhikkhu from Lanka fleeing from dire straits. In the same vein, while the mahavamsa speaks of kings and their valiant deeds, there is little account of the large mass of little people who lived then. Sensible teaching of the history of a people must include the history of as much of the people as possible and some idea of the history of other peoples in comparable times to avoid feeling dangerously smug and arrogant, which we have seen many times over.

Usvatte-aratchi

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Opinion

Ministerial resignation and new political culture

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Kumara Jayakody

The resignation of Energy Minister Kumara Jayakody comes after several weeks of controversy over his ministerial role. The controversy sharpened when the minister was indicted by the Commission on Bribery and Corruption for a transaction he was involved in ten years ago as a government official in the Fertiliser Corporation. The other issue was the government’s purchase of substandard coal from a new supplier. Minister Jayakody’s resignation followed the appointment of a Special Presidential Commission of Inquiry to investigate coal and petroleum purchases. The minister who resigned, along with the Secretary to the Ministry of Energy, Udayanga Hemapala, stated that they did not wish to compromise the integrity of the investigation to be undertaken by the Commission of Inquiry.

The government’s initial resistance to holding the minister accountable for the costly purchase was based on the argument that the official procedure had been followed in ordering the coal. However, the fact that the procedure permitted a disadvantageous purchase which has come to light on this occasion suggests a weakness in the process. The government’s appointment of the Special Presidential Commission of Inquiry to examine purchases as far back as 2009 follows from this observation. In this time 450 purchases are reported to have been made, and if several of them were as disadvantageous as this one, the cost to the country can be imagined. The need to investigate transactions since 2009 also arises from the possibility that loopholes in official government procedures in the past would have permitted private enrichment at a high cost to the country.

Concerns have been expressed in the past that the purchase of coal and petroleum, often on an emergency basis, enabled the use of emergency procurement processes which do not require going through the full tender procedures. The government has pledged to eradicate corruption as its priority. As a result, the general population would expect it to do everything within its power to correct those systems that permitted such corruption. Accountability is not only forward looking to ensure non-corrupt practices in the present, it is also backward looking to ensure that corrupt practices of the past are discontinued. This would be a matter of concern to those who headed government ministries and departments in previous governments. Those who have misapplied the systems can be expected to do their utmost to resist any investigation into the past.

Politically Astute

One of the main reasons for the government’s continuing popularity among the general population, as reflected in February 2026 public opinion poll by Verité Research, has been its willingness to address the problem of corruption. Public opinion studies have consistently shown that corruption remains one of the top concerns of citizens in Sri Lanka. The arrests and indictments of members of former governments have been viewed with general satisfaction as paving the way to a less corrupt society. At the same time, the resignations of Minister Kumara Jayakody and Secretary Udayanga Hemapala are an indication that not even government members will be spared if they are found to have crossed red lines. This is an important signal, as public confidence depends not only on holding political opponents to account but also on demonstrating fairness and consistency within one’s own ranks.

There appears to be a strategy on the part of the opposition to target government leaders and allege corruption so that ministers will be forced to step down. Organised protests against other ministers, and demonstrations outside their homes, are on the rise. The government appears not to want to give in to this opposition strategy and therefore delayed the resignation of Minister Jayakody until it had itself established the Special Presidential Commission of Inquiry. It enabled the minister to step down without it seeming that the government was yielding to opposition pressure. In political terms, this was a calibrated response that sought to balance the need for accountability with the need to maintain authority and coherence in governance.

The demand by opposition parties to focus attention on the coal problem could also be seen as an attempt to shift the national debate from the corruption of the past to controversies in the present. The opposition’s endeavour would be to take the heat off themselves in regard to the corruption of the past and turn it onto the government by making it the focus of inquiries into corruption. The decision to set up a Special Presidential Commission of Inquiry accompanied by the resignation of the minister and the ministry secretary was a politically astute way of demonstrating that the government will have no tolerance for corruption. It will also help to remind the general public about the rampant corruption of past governments which prevents the opposition’s corruption accusations against the government from gaining traction amongst the people.

New Practice

The resignation of a government minister who faces allegations but has not been convicted is still a relatively new practice in Sri Lanka. The general practice in Sri Lanka up to the present time has been for those in government service, if found to be at fault, to be transferred rather than removed from office. This is commonly seen in the case of police officers who, if found to have used excessive force or engaged in abuse, are transferred to another station rather than subjected to more serious disciplinary action. A similar pattern was seen in the case of former minister Keheliya Rambukwella, who faced allegations of corruption in the health field but was reassigned to a different portfolio rather than removed from government.

Against this background, the present resignation assumes greater importance. It signals a willingness to break with past practices and to establish a higher standard of conduct in public office. However, a single instance does not in itself create a lasting change. What is required is the consistent application of the same principle across all cases, irrespective of political affiliation or convenience. This is where the government has an opportunity to strengthen its credibility. By ensuring that the same standards of accountability are applied to its own members as to those of previous governments, it can demonstrate that its commitment to good governance is not selective.

The establishment of the Special Presidential Commission of Inquiry, the willingness to accept ministerial resignation, and the recognition of systemic weaknesses in procurement are all steps in the right direction. The challenge now is to ensure that these steps are followed through with determination and consistency. If the investigations are conducted impartially and lead to meaningful reforms, the present controversy could mark a turning point. The resignation of the minister should not be seen as an isolated event but as the beginning of a new practice. If it becomes part of a broader pattern of accountability, it can contribute to a new political culture and to restoring public trust in government.

by Jehan Perera

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Opinion

Shutting roof top solar panels – a crime

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The Island newspaper’s lead news item on the 12th of April 2026 was on the CEB request to shut down rooftop solar power during the low demand periods. Their argument is that rooftop solar panels produce about 300 MW power during the day and there is no procedure to balance the grid with such a load.

We as well as a large academic and industrial consortium members have been trying to promote solar energy as a viable and sustainable power source since the early 1990’s. We formed the Solar Energy Society and made representations to Government politicians about the need to have solar power generation. This continuous promotional work contributed to the rapid increase in PV solar companies from three in the early 1990’s to over 650 active PV solar companies established today in the country. These companies have created tens of thousands of high-quality jobs, as well as moving in the right direction for sustainable development.

However, all these efforts appear to have been in vain since the CEB policy makers have continuously rejected solar energy as a viable alternative. Their power generation plans at that time did not include solar energy at all but only relied on imported coal power plants and diesel power generation. Even at the meetings where CEB senior staff were present, we emphasised the importance of installation of battery storage facilities and grid balancing for which they have done nothing at all over the past three decades. Now they have grudgingly accepted the need to include solar energy, which was an election promise of the present government. The government policy is that Sri Lanka should go for renewables to satisfy 70% of its energy needs by 2030 and soon move towards the green hydrogen technology by using solar and wind energy.

The question is why the diesel generators and hydropower stations cannot be shut off one by one to accommodate the solar power generated during the daytime. Unlike a coal-fired plant, diesel generators and hydro power plants can be shut off in a relatively shorter period of time. Norochchalai Lakvijaya power plant produces around 900 MW of power while the total country requirement is 2500 MW on a daily basis. The remainder is provided by diesel generators, hydro and other renewable energy sources.

The need for work to achieve this goal of grid balancing should be the primary responsibility of the CEB. Modern grid balancing systems are in operation in countries such as Germany where around 56% of its energy come from renewable sources. They also plan to increase this to reach 80% of the energy required through renewables by 2030. Our CEB is hell bent on diesel power plants. Who benefits from such emergency power purchases is anybody’s guess?

The Government and the CEB should realise that all roof top solar plants are privately financed through personal funds or bank loans with no financial burden on the Government. It is a crime to request them not to operate these solar panels and get the necessary credits for the power transmitted to the national grid. It appears that the results of CEB’s lack of grid balancing experience and unwillingness to learn over three decades have now passed to the privately-funded rooftop solar panel owners. It is unfortunate that the Government is not considering the contributions of ordinary individuals who provide clean power to the national grid at no cost to the Government. Over 150,000 rooftop solar panels owners are severely affected by these ruthless decisions by the CEB, and this will lead to the un-popularity of this new government in the end.

by Professors Oliver Ileperuma and I M Dharmadasa

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