Opinion
Why is Singapore dollar strong and SL rupee weak?
by Jayampathy Molligoda
Inflation is too high in Sri Lanka; people are finding it unbearable. How can we control the inflation from further slipping?
Singapore experience and structure of our CBSL:
Singapore has the Monetary Authority Singapore (‘MAS’) as their Central Bank, where in Sri Lanka, we have the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (which is not a body corporate in legal terms) and within the CBSL, they have the ‘Monetary Board’. Basically, the Singapore Central Bank (MAS) has managed to keep the inflation under control even during this period of global economic recession, where most of the other countries have not been able to contain the inflation. The Singapore used the exchange rate to influence inflation, not the other way around.
Our view is that there must be a sound, practical and legal mechanism guaranteeing the independence of the CB whilst making the CBSL accountable and transparent as in the case of MAS. John Exter, the founding Governor of the Central Bank of Ceylon, in his report stated that Governor of the Central Bank should be of unquestioned integrity and responsibility. This is very critical because an independent CB is essential for maintaining price stability, meaning containing inflationary pressure.
As for maintaining the price stability objective, the simplest test is whether CB can continue to resist demands from the government of the day to print money and/or continue to maintain low interest rate regime when a higher interest rate is necessary to maintain price stability. This is because the government of the day would naturally tend to push economic growth rates to run at a faster rate than its capacity limit permits and their desire to incur budget deficits try to secure funds by borrowing from CB. Ours is somewhat politicized.
However, the reality is most of the economic activities will come to a grinding halt if CBSL doesn’t print new money for the government. Besides the suffering of the people on the road, non- repatriation, avoiding sovereign breaches, not letting money market domino effect failure, payment to foreign parties, all of these have to be considered. No salary payments to government servants for a particular month if money printing is stopped.
Why can’t our CB do the same thing as MAS?
Sri Lankan situation is totally different because it has a persistently high ‘twin deficits’ meaning (1) government budget deficits since independence and (2) BOP current account deficit with rest of the world. And CB has been compelled to resort to ‘money printing’ more that the required/ desired level and continue to borrow, thus increasing foreign debt service beyond unsustainable levels.
The real issue has been that our Exports as a % of GDP has come down from closer to 28% in four to five decades to 12% especially since 2014 to date. Now GDP real per capita is coming down. We were boosting US $ 25 billion has increased to US $ 75 billion within 10 years, but it was through services and high spending on infrastructure development without corresponding increases in return on such investments by way of increased exports.
CBSL policy towards curbing inflation:
Since August 21, CB has been trying to control inflation by way of increasing bank interest rates through increasing CB rates and Statutory reserve ratios (tightening the monetary policy accelerated wef March 22, however. this badly affects SMEs – the micro and small and medium enterprises have serious issues in the area of access to financial facilities or in simple terms, borrowing costs are so high that they cannot afford to borrow any more. Depending on whether the marketable – products of these businesses are in the “buyers; market’ or “sellers’ market” they could either survive or eventually collapse- only the ‘rich’ become richer (only in certain sectors) because they are in possession of own surplus money – they earn a substantial amount as interest income at current deposit rates and also have the option of keeping dollars without repatriation as stipulated in the relevant directives issued under Monetary Law Act of 1949. This is despite the rupee exchange rate was allowed to be flexible and floated from Rs 203/ per $ and now it’s Rs 368/.
Further, during the period 2019 till august 2021, the private sector was benefited under low tax rates and low bank interest regime, where they borrowed rupee loans at 4-6 %, otherwise the exporters were compelled to go for $$ packing credit for financing export orders. In my view, our private sector is smarter than the government policy makers and some top officials in the financial/banking sector. It was the private sector who insisted that SL rupee should be floated not even a “managed float currency policy. Are we now getting the export proceeds according to the applicable regulations and if not, does the CB strictly enforce penalties for non- compliance?
Two News items published on 29/07/22:
“Earnings from merchandise exports increased by 20% Y-o-Y to USD 1,208.2 Mn in June 2022 as per data released by Sri Lanka Customs, mainly due to increase in earnings from export of Apparel & Textiles (1/2)”
“World Bank does not plan to offer new financing to Sri Lanka until an adequate macroeconomic policy framework is in place – WB”
Sri Lankan Export industries such as textile and apparel, tea sub sector, minor export crops, etc., should be able to be more competitive in the global market place due to the policy of currency depreciation wef 7 March 22 from Rs 203/- to around Rs 368 (at present), but the associated local costs including the import content of the export value chain and the additional costs due to difficulties in ‘doing business’ under current conditions tend to move up sharply in the near future, thus eroding the cost competitiveness enjoyed by our exporters. As for doing business, one of the most critical current issues has been the shortage of fuel. It is in that context only the importance of making available sufficient FOREX income, be set aside for importation of fuel on a monthly basis, say US$ 300 million, should be viewed. Now that the backlog of LCs being cleared and most of the payments have been made and the incoming $$$ are now being reserved, it is important to set aside a part of export proceeds towards meeting fuel bills on a monthly basis.
Vital information on ‘FOREX’ monitoring not made available yet:
Stemming from the above argument, the CB’s priority number one should be to ensure whether export proceeds in dollars are received within the stipulated timeframes and in accordance with the directives issued under Monetary Law Act of 1949. In fact, the CB mandate by law is ensuring price stability and financial system stability and management of FOREX is the critical success factor here.
In August 21, then Governor Prof WDL appointed a working committee and liaised with customs and started putting in place the EPMS. (As far as direct documentation of export (‘cusdecs’) is concerned, the commercial banks do not receive those docs and what they can monitor is what they actually receive as proceeds only, that’s why this ICT system is needed.)
It seems that export proceeds monitoring system (EPMS) is still not functioning at CB level. Also, CB doesn’t provide the information on actual amounts of foreign exchange proceeds received on a monthly basis.
According to the Governor, CB, only about 20% of the FOREX is getting converted in to the banking system out of US$ 1,000 million export proceeds per month. It is not clear how much has actually received within the ‘180 day rule’ on a monthly basis AND how much converted.
The present Governor, CB is now making an appeal to exporters to remit all export proceeds and convert at least 50% of the proceeds after keeping $$ for ‘eligible expenditure’. It is expedient for the CB to advise the government to set aside (out of monthly export+ direct remittances) at least US$ 300 million per month for petroleum product imports and only the deficit if any, be funded through credit lines. In the meantime, our renewable energy sources must be explored with a view to reducing dependence on diesel and petroleum inputs.
Apparently, the Strategy adopted by the Ministry of Finance on 12 April 22 by pre-emptive debt defaults announcement has created some negative sentiments as well. Fuel imports can only be done through advance payments. LCs cannot be opened without paying an advance as most of our banks are considered untrustworthy customers in the international trading operations.
Light at the end of the tunnel:
We are into a vicious economic cycle. What is really worrisome is that there seems to be no serious process of problem identification by following a more scientific ‘research methodology’. First and foremost, we need to find out what went wrong? Some kind of a truth commission is needed. Our policymakers together with the private sector, the government and Opposition politicians all must get together to find out what went wrong without ‘blame assigning game’. Our policymakers must learn to admit that we don’t know fully the reasons, until a detailed analysis is done. No sustainable solutions can be expected in a situation where we all have full of ‘beliefs’ -some may be true others false, therefore the real facts need to be separated out from mere opinions based on beliefs although belief is the starting point of any intellectual thought process as claimed by world renowned philosopher, Bertrand Russell. No point in blaming politicians only – maybe as national leaders they have failed to provide transformational leadership and inspire other stakeholders to drive the economy. Also, successive governments have not created conducive environment for private sector to do business and improve economic welfare of the people, otherwise, it is the private sector that is managing the economy; at least 70% of the economic activities are undertaken by the private sector. Our private sector is capable of driving the businesses as ‘engine of growth’ for national economic development.
What can the government do under the current circumstances?
The solution is for the government authorities to follow one important process, undertake some research using scientific methods to ascertain why we have failed. It is suggested the government appoint an ‘expert panel’. It should come out with immediate, short and medium- term strategic plan based on a long-term vision. But who is going to appoint this expert panel and who are the members? Ideally, it has to be a Presidential commission.
Treasury does not have any money at all and when CPC is held up with no payment to banks. That is why our economists have been advocating stringent fiscal measures be enforced by the government so that the government expenditure could be drastically reduced. Most of the state- owned enterprises (SOEs) need to be restructured by liberalising the sectors and put in place a more transparent system to look for ‘PPP projects’ to drive economic activities using under- performed state assets. However, these measures need to be taken after a due process of obtaining the final recommendations of the Presidential commission.
Social unrest, achieving political stability and economic revival:
What we have discussed up to now pertains to our economic problems, but we have major issues in socio-political arena. We need to admit that there are a number of genuine grievances coming out from the ordinary people and also a mass uprising against corruption and mismanagement of the governments, although no concrete evidence is forthcoming to justify these claims, that’s why the truth commission findings are important. On the other hand, there is this conspiracy theory that some unexplained, hidden and most powerful forces operating outside Sri Lanka are at work -may be trying to weaken the “STATE” and portray Sri Lanka as a failed state as articulated by the Head of SIS at a high- level meeting chaired by the President Ranil Wickremesinghe. Surely, there must be some valid reasons for the government under President, GR to adopt a ‘soft’ policy. We don’t know the ‘real things’ yet.
We have been hearing as a slogan that political stability is a prerequisite for achieving much needed economic growth and revival. However, the writer is of the view that in today’s context, it should be other way around. If the government of the day cannot provide basic needs of the people, at least fuel without people waiting in long queues, it will not be possible to restore political stability, and social unrest could further accelerate. That’s why some kind of economic revival is needed to fulfil ‘basic needs’ of the people to restore some kind of ‘political stability’. Otherwise this so-called ‘political stability’ becomes a mere superficial phrase.
In the meantime, it is the responsibility of the government of the day to uphold the constitutional provisions to the letter and spirit as stipulated in the Constitution of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka.
The authorities need to respect the different views of the people without resorting to suppress people’s non-violent socio-political movements, whilst maintaining law and order to safeguard the peoples’ sovereign rights guaranteed under our Constitution.
Three matters concerning universities. The eminent botanist Dr. Upatissa Pethiyagoda asked (17/12) why there were Bachelor of Arts degrees and no Spinsters …. degrees. When universities were first founded in medieval times, the intelligentsia was almost entirely churchmen: priests, friars and monks. There were no women in the clergy. Churchmen held power in studium generale which about the 15th century came to be called universities.
Universities governed themselves, a common feature of many organisations in medieval Europe, where authority was fragmented. (The seeds of present claims for autonomy in universities, bolstered by new and other powerful factors, lay there.) Although graduates from the Arts Faculty comprised the overwhelming majority in universities, and the arts faculty was fons et origo ceteris (source and origin of all others), graduates of the Faculty of Theology controlled universities. For centuries to come this practice continued. The church and, more recently, laymen who governed universities, did not permit the admission of women to universities. In Dr. Pethiyagoda’s university in the UK, women were formally admitted to degrees only in 1948! In Oxford, women had been admitted in 1920-21. That explains why there are no “Spinster graduates”, even though, in some universities, women comprise the majority that graduates. However, change has been rapid since then. The present vice-chancellor of Cambridge University is a woman. The Master of Trinity Hall, one of the smaller but older colleges in that university, is a woman who was an academic in the US, previously.
Then it was asked whether LSE could offer a degree (in The Island, on the same day). LSE cannot, because it is not a university but only a School at the University of London, like the Imperial College of Science and Technology, King’s College or SOAS. Similarly, one cannot get a degree from the Harvard Business School. The model of the University of London was copied in India, when the British established universities there in 1857, the year of the mutiny. (Ramachandran Guha once remarked that two mutinies began in 1857; the other being the establishment of universities whose alumni were a force in pushing the British out of India.) As a result, Delhi University or Calcutta University has large numbers of colleges, where standards of teaching vary widely. The University of Bangalore is reputed to have hundreds of affiliated colleges.
Professor Jan-Melissa Schramm became Vice- Master of trinity hall on 1 april 2023 after filling the role of acting Vice-Master during Lent term 2023. She is Professor of Literature and Law in the english Faculty, Director of Studies in english at trinity hall, and was Deputy Director at CRaSSh between 2017 and 2020. (From Trinity Hall official website)
P. A. Samaraweera, philosophiae doctor, (20/12/24) insists on calling a university degree a title: ‘…(PD) is incorrect in his analysis of a Ph.D. as a title’. Well, of course, Alice (in Wonderland) retorted, ‘I mean what I say’ and Dr. Samaraweeera may assert that same privilege. But korala, muhandiram, maha mudali, professor, archdeacon and judge are titles, not university degrees. B.A., D.Phil., and D.Litt. are degrees and not titles. His appellation ‘Dr.’ is not a title, whereas he may hold the title ’professor’. I went back to history to explain what it is, not what the future should be. He might find it difficult to explain why he, a chemist (say) holds a degree ‘doctor of philosophy’, having never, even in school, studied philosophy. The explanation is in the history of universities. Well into the 21st century, President Emmanuel Macron, a few months ago, opened the University of Paris-Saclay and it will have deans, provosts, and other office holders whose titles derive from the University of Paris which started about 1210 CE. Robert Grosseteste, Bishop of Lincoln, Chancellor of Oxford, in the 14th century, had he miraculously been transported to the occasion, may have found the entire setup familiar as he was ‘a French poet, an agriculturist, a lawyer, a physician, and a preacher; ….’ ( Rashdall, Vol.III p.241). He may even have understood the proceedings. Modern universities follow procedures adopted in old Europe: wear your cappa (degree gown and cap) and compare those vestments with what a Catholic priest, a bishop or the pope wears. Need I say more?
Philosophiae Doctor
“The goal of education is not to increase the amount of knowledge but to create the possibilities for a child to invent and discover”
– Jean Piaget
“[They] are confined for four or five years in small cages, being kept in the dark and not allowed to set foot on the ground”. One might wonder whether the foregoing sentence is one which is meant to serve as a metaphorical description of the joyless life of most of our primary-level students, who are regimented for two to three years to face the Year 5 Scholarship exam. Well, no.
It doesn’t have the remotest connection to modern-day exams or an education system unwittingly designed to drain childhood of its inherent pleasures. It refers to a custom, a ‘persecution’ ingrained in primeval cultures, the remnants of which may still be found in many societies including ours. The quote is from a well-known book on anthropology, “The Golden Bough: A study in magic and religion” written by Sir James Frazer. The sentence describes a widespread taboo in primitive societies, which resulted in the “seclusion of girls at puberty”. However, it is a pity that today, one is likely to see in it, at least a faint reference to the otherwise happiest period of our youngest citizens, who are pressured to prepare for an exam, which is superimposed, for reasons unrelated to the goals of education, per se. Rather, it is designed to make tens of thousands of underprivileged children work harder than they reasonably can, because the successive governments have not been able to provide the required infrastructure facilities to their schools to enable them to continue studies till they enter the tertiary level. In other words, the well-known exam is an instance of making our children sacrifice their childhood till the rulers, if they ever will, set right the larger economic wrongs.
Whereas, in ancient times, young girls were made to carry the burden of superstition and patriarchy, today young children of all sexes are forced to pay the price for political and economic bungling. Ultimately, a problem resulting from lack of opportunities for many, is upgraded and embellished as ‘providing opportunities’ for the few ‘smart’. And, its grand title is Year 5 Scholarship Exam. What we conveniently forget is that this ‘exam’ is a wrong medicine produced to compensate for political quackery, which justifies the continuation of substandard education for the ‘condemned’ majority. It seems that the onward march of human progress, while doing away with cultural wrongs, is shy of getting rid of economic wrongs. A local saying seems apt here – one may say that the Year 5 scholarship exam has been serving as a metaphor for an annually produced loincloth expected to cure politically induced child-diarrhea.
The reported leaking of three questions from the Grade 5 scholarship exam held this year and the reports of such incidents in the past show its undesirable influence on the children, parents and other vested interests. At least, it has raised an unhealthy spirit of competition considerably removing the sense of joy which should be an essential part of these children’s learning experience. This is particularly relevant because the exam has drawn both students and their parents into a prolonged spell of obsession, which has severely undermined the importance of leisure and fun that should be part and parcel of a wholesome childhood. The prolonged fixation on the exam results tied to their ‘future success’ robs these fledgling scholars of the joys of ‘free learning’, which should otherwise give them that vital sense of adventure and excitement in gaining new knowledge. Bertrand Russell’s quote, “There is much pleasure to be gained from useless knowledge”, which refers to the unplanned learning pursuits that may enhance the quality of life of adults, may not be totally irrelevant in any discussion on child education.
As history and anthropology bear evidence, children have always been defenceless against many of those well-meaning programmes imposed on them by adults. It is a pity that today the parental ambitions triggered by social forces, have invaded and highjacked the childhood of our clueless kids. Particularly vulnerable are those underprivileged children who form the majority. Whereas the children of privileged families enjoy the freedom of engaging in many leisure pursuits while receiving their primary level education without undue stress, a large number of children belonging to the lower strata of society are grievously saddled with the scholarship exam to the exclusion of all fun and recreation.
As Ms. Ruth Surenthiraraj highlights in her article titled, “A case for the non-essential” (Kuppi Talk) published in The Island of December 10, “…entertainment, leisure, or the space to create is often perceived as being directly and positively correlated to being able to afford either the time or the resources to enjoy it”. This is a valid critique of a smug social attitude, which tends to give credence to the warped idea that the underprivileged in society may ‘prudently’ forget about entertainment. Reducing childhood to a strenuous struggle for future success is sad. And, any programme relating to education or otherwise, which, directly or indirectly, helps consolidate the idea that deprived children may ‘wisely’ shun any entertainment ‘for their own good’ can be nothing short of catastrophic.
Susantha Hewa
Rekindling Faith, Peace, and Love Below…!
(Practical Tips for Christmas Bliss)
by Rev. Fr. (Dr.) Eymard Fernando
Bishop’s House, Kurunegala.
In an increasingly and incredibly materialised and commercialised world today, the core meaning of Christmas often seems distorted, being overshadowed by consumerism, bustling sales, and extravagant festivities. Yet, at its heart, Christmas is a season meant for reflection, change, love, and unity – a time when people gather to celebrate gratitude and generosity centred around the Divine Baby. As we explore the roots of Christmas and what it can mean for us in today’s world, we uncover themes of faith, hope, peace, and kindness that transcend religious boundaries, reminding us of the true purpose and value of God becoming man.
Therefore, let us delve a little into the origins and deeper significance of Christmas, exploring ways to return to these roots through themes of generosity, togetherness, and humility. By rediscovering these essential values, we can certainly celebrate Christmas as a season that brings light and life to our world.
A Season of Faith and Reflection
Christmas has its origins in the Birth of Jesus Christ, a moment celebrated by Christians as the arrival of hope and salvation. However, even beyond its religious significance, Christmas season has become a time when many reflect on themes of love, hope, and renewal. The story of the Nativity conveys universal values: humility, peace, and the power of hope.
The Birth of Jesus in a humble manger represents a profound lesson about simplicity and compassion. As theologian Henri Nouwen noted, “Jesus was born in the least expected place to the least expected people in the least expected way.” This simplicity, intertwined with humility, challenges the commercialised image of Christmas today. Instead of focusing on luxury and excess, the roots of Christmas invite us to value the simple, meaningful aspects of life: faith, family, and fraternity.
In today’s world, we can return to these roots by setting aside time for personal reflection during Christmas. Practising gratitude, being mindful of those less fortunate, and reaching out to loved ones are all different ways we can honour the spiritual foundation of Christmas. Thus, we all can benefit from a moment of stillness and introspection during this busy time of the year.
The Spirit of Generosity and Compassion
Christmas has always been a season of sharing, inspired by the gifts of the Magi to the Christ- Child and later, Saint Nicholas’ acts of charity as santa claus. However, the tradition of sharing has gradually shifted from simple acts of kindness to an intense focus on material gifts. According to American sociologist Juliet Schor, “We give to show love, but in a culture that equates love with spending, our giving has been commercialized.”
However, in recent years, a shift towards alternative, meaningful sharing has gained momentum in the form of a worthy ‘retromarch’. Many individuals and families now choose to give to charity in a loved one’s name or to offer experiences rather than material goods. This form of sharing very much aligns with the true spirit of Christmas, embodying generosity without extravagance.
Likewise, local initiatives, such as community food drives and clothing and toy collections, have become popular ways to give back. Participating in these efforts allows people to connect with others in their communities, creating a shared sense of purpose and compassion. As Mother Teresa famously said, “It’s not how much we give, but how much love we put into giving.” By focusing mainly on the intention behind our gifts, we can bring the spirit of Christmas alive in our own hearts and communities. However, the magic of Christmas is not very much in presents and parties, but in His Presence!
Family and Togetherness: A Time for Connection
The Christmas season is often one of the few times in the year when families come together, setting aside time to reconnect, reflect, and celebrate. This emphasis on togetherness is deeply rooted in the season’s traditions, dating back to ancient winter solstice festivals where communities gathered to share warmth and light during the darkest days of the year.
In modern times, when families may be dispersed across cities or even continents, Christmas remains a crucial opportunity to reconnect. This communal emphasis shows how Christmas, regardless of religious affiliations, has become a unifying tradition centred on family.
Simple traditions – like sharing a meal, decorating a Christmas tree, or singing carols together – allow families to pause, connect, and create memories. These rituals not only strengthen family bonds but also convey the essence of Christmas for younger generations. As American author Richard Paul Evans, best known for his inspirational and heartfelt novels says, “The smells, tastes, and sounds of Christmas are the roots that nurture a family tree.” By focusing on togetherness, Christmas serves as a reminder of the love and connection that sustain us all throughout the New Year.
Peace on Earth: Seeking Unity in This Divided World
One of the most significant messages of Christmas is the call for ‘Peace on Earth’. Yet, today’s world is marked by political, social, cultural, economic and various other divisions, making the pursuit of peace and unity more relevant than ever before. From the hymn ‘Silent Night’ to the angels’ proclamation of peace, Christmas has long symbolized hope in times of conflict.
A poignant historical example of Christmas promoting peace is the Christmas Truce of 1914, during World War I. British and German soldiers, entrenched on the Western Front, laid down their arms on Christmas Eve to exchange greetings, sing carols, and share small gifts. This unexpected truce, though brief, reminded soldiers of their shared humanity amidst the horrors of war. It symbolised the power of Christmas to transcend differences and bring people together, even during a time of darkness and death.
Today, peace-oriented traditions continue to play an important role during Christmas season. Interfaith gatherings, community meals, and charitable events all serve as spaces for people from different backgrounds to connect and understand one another. In a world often divided by ideological and political differences, Christmas can become a season with a reason for open dialogue, compassion, and understanding. Embracing Christmas’ call for peace and unity allows us to honour its roots in ways that resonate with our global context.
Practising Simplicity and Mindfulness
While Christmas has grown as a metaphor for lavish celebrations and enchanting tamashas, the season’s roots actually encourage simplicity and mindfulness. The traditional story of Jesus’ Birth in a manger speaks to a humble beginning, one that invites us to cherish what truly matters in life. Embracing that simplicity allows us shift our focus from material abundance to the richness of shared experiences.
In recent years, minimalism and mindfulness have gained popularity as antidotes to the consumer-driven spendthrift lifestyle with a ‘shop till you drop’ psychosis. Many people now opt for simpler, handmade gifts or choose to forgo elaborate decorations in favour of natural elements. These preferred choices reflect a desire to connect more authentically with the true meaning of Christmas. Instead of flashy lights or mountains of gifts, families can create meaningful memories through acts of kindness or spending quality time together strengthening family ties. One modern example for this is the ‘Reverse Advent Calendar’ tradition. Instead of receiving a treat each day, participants place an item – such as dry rations or clothing – in a box to donate to those in need. This practice helps to instil gratitude and generosity, shifting the focus from consumption to community service. By embracing a simpler and more mindful and meaningful approach, we honour the humble roots of Christmas and foster a deeper sense of appreciation for life’s countless blessings.
A Journey of Rediscovering…
Returning to the roots of Christmas is a journey of rediscovering faith, kindness, and togetherness in a world that often moves at a very rapid pace. The true spirit of Christmas calls us to reflect on values that transcend time and culture: humility, compassion, peace, unity, and love. In embracing these themes, we transform Christmas from a season of materialism into one pregnant with meaning.
As we celebrate Christmas this year, let us remember that this event is not about what we have, but about who we are with and how we make others feel. It is a season of opening our hearts and minds to others, of putting love into action, and of finding moments of peace and tranquility in the midst of cacophony, disorder and chaos. By going back to the roots of Christmas, let us therefore invite joy, hope, and kindness into our lives, allowing Christmas grow and glow with renewed purpose and profound meaning resulting in a new birth in our own lives!
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