Opinion
Vistas of prosperity – Not quite!
By Harim Peiris
The New Year 2022 is upon us and with it also, late last year, the completion of two years of the first SLPP administration. As a nation, as we look to the year ahead, the prospects for the vistas of prosperity, we were promised, are not bright and a look back may allow the current administration to charter a new course or an eventual successor to carve out an alternate path. For a country promised vistas of prosperity and splendour, the contrary could hardly be starker; people standing in line for daily essentials, shortages of everything from cooking gas to foreign exchange, with rising inflation and declining real incomes and living standards. The hardest hit is the rural farmer and plantation worker as agricultural and plantation output and yields drop precipitously due to the fiasco that is our fertiliser policy. National life and governance are no better. We seem unable to manage anything from an oil spill to sub-standard fertiliser, and despite various election pledges of both national security and justice we are no closer to knowing who the masterminds of the 2019 Easter bombings were and bringing the conspirators to justice. Our international standing is at an all time low, facing opprobrium in Geneva and very unwisely having moved Sri Lanka away from our traditional ‘friends with all policy’ to an unnecessary alignment with one power at the cost of our relations with others.
Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa has sought to defray rising criticism and significant erosion of public support to the government by announcing overnight and not through his November Budget, a relief package costing the government over two hundred billion rupees, the highlight of which is a 5000 rupee monthly allowance for all public servants and disabled ex-servicemen. This will indeed be a welcome relief to public servants, but those really hurting even more right now are the rural farmers, the informal sector and daily wage earners, who are seeing living standards and real incomes plummet.
The government’s answer to all this of course, is that the only culprit is COVID-19 and if not for the pandemic, the vistas of prosperity and splendour would be upon us. But even a cursory examination of this thesis proves otherwise. It was unwise and bad policy, pure and simple, which caused the mire in which we find ourselves in today. Many economies in the world, including those in our region, such as even Bangladesh, to whom we now go hat in hand for foreign exchange swaps, saw their economies take a hit during the initial COVID-19 waves in 2020, but rebound in 2021 and are well poised for growth in 2022. That is not the case for Sri Lanka. Our wounds are self-inflicted and exacerbated by the defining weaknesses of this administration, their unwillingness to consult experts, their inability to listen to the community and their complete, if misguided, faith in the righteousness of their cause.
Organic fertiliser fiasco
The first self-inflicted wound, the pain of which is yet to be felt, because the Maha crop season is yet not fully harvested, was the amazingly short-sighted decision, since rescinded, to administer shock therapy to the agricultural sector by banning non-organic fertiliser. Around the world, organic farming is an upmarket niche and not a mass market practice. The SLPP manifesto did promise to work the transition to organic farming but in a phased-out manner, over a decade. The implementation was different. It was sudden, overnight and instantaneous. The task of green agriculture has now been, even more bizarrely, handed over to the Army. It was not only agriculture that was affected, but also the plantations, especially tea, that also relies on fertiliser. Both these sectors combined employ the majority of Sri Lanka’s labour force. The drop in yields and output would push many rural families and plantation worker communities deeper into despair, debt and relative poverty. Food shortages are causing cost-push inflation or prices of daily essentials to soar. The reversal of the non-organic fertiliser policy has come too late and with the significant collateral damage of having to remove any subsidies on fertiliser and not paying the fertiliser importers their dues, running into billions of rupees, for prior period subsidies, thereby effectively restricting their ability to supply fresh stocks. This was not COVID-19 induced.
Fiscal slippage
The previous Sirisena-Wickremesinghe administration had expended political capital and taken the political hits to adjusted direct taxation upwards through the 2018 Budget and the resultant Inland Revenue Amendment Act. Sri Lanka is a country which has the twin anomalies of a very low tax revenue to GDP ratio compounded by a very high indirect to direct tax ratio, which disproportionately falls on the lower income sections of the population; this in a social context of extremely skewed income distribution, where the top ten percent of the population earns just below forty percentile of the national income. In that context, there was absolutely no need for a massive tax cut, in the first flush of election victory, for that top percent of the population. It was both unwise and unnecessary and resulted in a massive fiscal slippage which consequently led to an even more foolish loose money policy by the Central Bank. Today, consequently, the government is without adequate revenue. This was also not COVID-19 induced.
Loose monetary policy and foreign exchange crisis
The Central Bank, in 2020 and 2021, led by economic theories that predated the fall of the Berlin wall and was inspired most closely perhaps by the Sirimavo Bandaranaike government of 1970-1977 and its protectionist, even isolationist ethos, followed a loose money policy during the years of the pandemic. Saner counsel, including those of the opposition SJB was ignored. Former State Finance Minister Eran Wickramaratne was to point out in 2020, that the problem in economic activity and production was supply side constraints consequent to the lockdowns and loose money would not help or address the situation. It would merely cause massive inflation down the road. The rather obvious forecast has now been fulfilled. The foreign exchange crisis is because the Central Bank by executive fiat, that far exceeds the moral persuasion of markets, insists on maintaining the exchange rate artificially high, essentially seeking to have the export sector subsidise the government’s money printing binge. A solution that cannot really be made to work. While interest rates should only be allowed to rise moderately, the exchange rate would need to be at a more market driven equilibrium, which would result in both greater foreign exchange inflows through formal banking channels, while facilitating foreign direct investment (FDI) as well, which is also at an all time low. None of this is COVID-19 induced.
The cracks in the Government ranks are showing. The minor left party allies are openly voicing their dissent. The SLFP, whose leading lights have been deprived of meaningful ministerial office, has been distancing itself from the Administration and there is fresh speculation in the mainstream press about yet another Cabinet reshuffle including a replacement of the Prime Minister, a rumour squashed by the PM’s media office earlier yesterday. But the disunity can hardly help either policy cohesion or a course correction, both of which are needed for Sri Lanka to recover from the hole we have dug for ourselves. (The writer previously served as Advisor to the President).
Opinion
Can a punishment-free child become a threat to Sri Lankan society?
Children are the future of every nation, and the values they learn during childhood shape the society they will eventually lead. In Sri Lanka, where family traditions, respect for elders, and social responsibility have long been important cultural values, the way children are raised remains a topic of great interest. In recent years, many parents and educators have moved away from traditional forms of punishment and embraced more child-friendly approaches to discipline. While protecting children from physical and emotional harm is essential, an important question arises: can a child who grows up without any form of punishment or consequences become a threat to Sri Lankan society?
To answer this question, it is necessary to understand the difference between punishment and discipline. Punishment is often associated with penalties imposed for wrongdoing, while discipline refers to teaching children self-control, responsibility, and respect for rules. Modern child psychology generally discourages harsh physical punishment because it can cause fear, anxiety, and resentment. However, completely removing consequences for inappropriate behavior may create a different set of problems.
Sri Lankan society has traditionally emphasized discipline within the family. Parents, grandparents, and teachers have often played active roles in guiding children’s behavior. Respect for elders, obedience, and good manners have been considered important virtues. While some traditional disciplinary methods may no longer be acceptable, the underlying principle of teaching accountability remains relevant.
A child who never faces consequences for wrongdoing may struggle to understand the boundaries that exist in society. For example, if a child is allowed to insult others, damage property, or ignore rules without correction, they may develop the belief that their actions have no consequences. Such attitudes can become problematic when the child enters school, the workplace, or the wider community.
Sri Lankan schools already face challenges related to student discipline. Teachers often report difficulties in managing classrooms where some students refuse to follow instructions or respect school regulations. When children are not taught accountability at home, educational institutions may find it harder to maintain a productive learning environment. This can affect not only the individual student but also classmates whose education is disrupted.
Another concern is the development of entitlement. A child who is never told “no” may come to believe that personal desires should always be fulfilled. In a society where cooperation and mutual respect are essential, such attitudes can lead to conflicts with peers, teachers, employers, and even family members. Sri Lanka’s social fabric depends heavily on community relationships, and individuals who fail to respect others can weaken these bonds.
The influence of social media and modern technology has added another dimension to this issue. Today’s children have access to information and entertainment on an unprecedented scale. Without proper guidance and consequences, some may misuse technology, engage in cyberbullying, spread misinformation, or develop unhealthy habits. Parents who avoid setting limits may unintentionally expose children to risks that affect both personal development and social well-being.
The workplace offers another example of why accountability is important. Sri Lanka’s economic development depends on a workforce that is disciplined, responsible, and capable of working with others. Employers value punctuality, respect, and professionalism. Individuals who grow up without learning responsibility may find it difficult to meet these expectations, affecting both their personal success and the productivity of organizations.
However, it is equally important not to interpret this argument as support for harsh punishment. Research has shown that excessive physical or emotional punishment can have serious negative effects on children. Fear-based parenting may produce obedience in the short term but can damage confidence, trust, and mental health in the long term. Therefore, the solution is not stricter punishment but more effective discipline.
Positive discipline provides a balanced alternative. It involves setting clear rules, explaining expectations, and applying fair consequences when those rules are broken. For instance, if a child neglects schoolwork, they may lose certain privileges until responsibilities are fulfilled. If they damage property, they can be required to help repair or replace it. Such consequences teach accountability while preserving the child’s dignity.
Sri Lankan parents, teachers, and community leaders all have a role to play in nurturing responsible citizens. Families should create environments where children feel loved and supported but also understand that actions have consequences. Schools should encourage character development alongside academic achievement. Religious and community organizations can reinforce values such as honesty, compassion, and respect for others.
A balanced approach is especially important in a rapidly changing society. As Sri Lanka continues to modernize and integrate with the global community, young people must learn not only their rights but also their responsibilities. Freedom without responsibility can lead to selfishness, while discipline without compassion can lead to fear. The challenge is to find the middle ground.
A punishment-free child can become a concern for Sri Lankan society if the absence of punishment also means the absence of discipline and accountability. Children who never learn consequences may struggle to respect rules, authority, and the rights of others. However, harsh punishment is not the answer. The most effective approach combines love, guidance, clear boundaries, and fair consequences. By raising children who understand both freedom and responsibility, Sri Lanka can build a future generation that strengthens society rather than threatens it.
Saumya Aloysius
(An essayist, children’s writer and freelance writer who holds a Master’s Degree in Sociology from the University of Kelaniya)
Opinion
SriLankan Airbus struck by lightning
On Friday 12 June, 2026, a SriLankan Airlines Airbus 330 was en route from Colombo to Sydney, Australia was about 45 minutes into its flight when a loud bang was heard, accompanied by a blinding flash. In what was assumed to be a lightning strike, the airplane’s left (No. 1) engine was damaged, forcing the aircraft to return to BIA-Katunayake, where it landed safely.
Lightning travels from cloud to cloud or cloud to ground. Because the aircraft is not electrically ‘grounded’, or ‘earthed’, it must have been in the path of the thunder bolt purely by chance. There is also a phenomenon whereby the aircraft may travel through an electrically charged atmosphere (for example a cloud) where an electrical charge could build up and strike, or be emitted, as lightning. In such an instance, pilots hear electrical static in their headsets before the strike. Usually, when lightning strikes an aircraft in flight, the electrical charges remain on the outside, as on a ‘Faraday’s Cage’ apparatus, and the passengers and crew are perfectly safe.
To help the efficient and safe discharge of static electricity from the airplane’s structure, static wicks, or static dischargers, are fitted at the trailing (rearmost) edges of the wings and tail surfaces. When an airplane has landed after a lightning strike, ground engineers count the number of wicks that may have been burnt out to ensure that a minimum (recommended) number is available for a subsequent flight. Sometimes, there is minor damage, like pitting of the paintwork at the points where the charges left the aircraft.
The last instance in the USA of an airplane believed to have been lost due to a lightning strike was on December 8, 1963, when a Pan Am Boeing 707-121, en route from Baltimore, Maryland to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, suffered a fuel tank explosion, later determined to have been the result of a lightning strike. Since then, aircraft have been rendered immune from lightning damage thanks to extensive research conducted by manufacturers using high-voltage currents.
Interestingly, modern airliners have electronic instrument displays which don’t even flicker when the aircraft is struck by lightning. By a process of connecting all the metallic parts, known as ‘bonding’, the entire fuselage effectively becomes a protective cocoon, so electrical charges caused by lightning will always reside on the outside of the aircraft.
What is unusual in the recent SriLankan Airlines incident is the extent of damage to the left engine. Did it encounter hail or ingest something?
Only a thorough, independent inquiry by aviation safety investigators will reveal the cause.
GUWAN SEEYA
Opinion
Beyond diagnosis: A strategic design for 7% growth by 2029 (Part I)
“Vision without execution is hallucination.” – Thomas Edison
Introduction: Stabilisation Is Not Transformation
Sri Lanka has come a long way since the economic collapse of 2022. Inflation has been brought under control. Foreign reserves have improved. Debt restructuring has advanced. Government revenue has increased significantly through taxation reforms. The exchange rate has stabilised, and confidence has gradually returned to financial markets.
These achievements deserve recognition.
However, stabilisation should not be confused with economic transformation. A patient discharged from intensive care is not necessarily healthy. Likewise, an economy that has escaped collapse has not necessarily achieved sustainable prosperity.
The central economic question facing Sri Lanka today is no longer how to avoid another crisis. Rather, it is how to achieve sustained economic growth of at least 7% per annum by 2029.
Unfortunately, much of the current policy debate remains trapped in economic diagnosis. Policymakers, economists, and commentators repeatedly identify familiar problems: (i) low productivity, (ii) weak exports, i(iii) Inadequate innovation, (iv) poor competitiveness, and (v) insufficient investment. While these diagnoses are correct, they are not new.
Sri Lanka now needs economic engineering.
The country requires a clear, measurable, and actionable National Growth Strategy for 2026-2029 that identifies (i) where growth will come from,(ii) what investments are required,(iii) which institutions will lead implementation, and (iv) how success will be measured.
The difference between diagnosis and engineering is the difference between describing a problem and solving it.
The Missing National Growth Target
One of the most striking weaknesses in Sri Lanka’s economic discourse is the absence of a publicly articulated growth target supported by a detailed implementation framework.
Successful economies establish measurable objectives.
Sri Lanka should adopt the following growth trajectory:
2026 – 4%
2027 – 5%
2028 – 6%
2029 – 7%
Such targets would provide direction to investors, public institutions, universities, exporters, and development partners. Without a destination, even the best policies risk becoming disconnected initiatives.
Today, many policy interventions appear fragmented—valuable in isolation but lacking integration into a broader national growth framework.
Growth Will Not Come From Consumption
For decades Sri Lanka relied heavily on consumption, imports, remittances, tourism, and external borrowing.
That model has reached its limits.
No country has achieved sustained prosperity through consumption-led growth alone.
The countries that transformed themselves—Singapore, South Korea, Ireland, Vietnam, and China—generated growth through productive investment, exports, industrialisation, and integration into global markets.
Sri Lanka’s future growth must therefore be driven by investment and exports rather than domestic consumption.
The challenge is not increasing spending but increasing productive capacity.
Export-Led Growth: The First Pillar of Transformation
Every successful Asian growth story has one characteristic in common: exports.
Exports generate foreign exchange, create jobs, attract investment, encourage innovation, and improve productivity.
Sri Lanka should establish an ambitious target of doubling export earnings within the next decade.
This requires moving beyond traditional exports and expanding into:
High-value agriculture
Food processing
Information technology services
Logistics services
Advanced manufacturing
Professional services
Export growth must become a national mission comparable to post-war reconstruction efforts seen elsewhere in Asia.
Without a major expansion of exports, sustained 7% growth will remain elusive.
Manufacturing: The Forgotten Growth Engine
Manufacturing remains the single most important source of rapid economic transformation worldwide. Vietnam provides perhaps the best recent example.
Through (i) industrial zones, (ii) trade agreements, (iii) infrastructure development, and (iv) targeted investment attraction, Vietnam became deeply integrated into Asian production networks.
Sri Lanka possesses strategic advantages:
A prime Indian Ocean location
Strong port infrastructure
Educated labour force
Proximity to India
The country should establish specialised manufacturing clusters focusing on:
Electronics assembly
Medical devices
Processed food products
Boat building
Rubber-based products
Engineering components
Rather than attempting to compete with every country, Sri Lanka should specialise in selected niches where competitive advantages can be developed.
RCEP: The Strategic Door to Asia
Sri Lanka’s future lies increasingly in Asia.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) represents the largest trading bloc in the world and includes many of the fastest-growing economies.
Membership or closer integration with RCEP supply chains could provide Sri Lankan exporters with access to markets, investment, technology, and production networks that are currently beyond reach.
Unfortunately, discussion on RCEP remains limited compared with its strategic significance.
A dedicated national roadmap for RCEP engagement should become a top economic priority.
The question is not whether Sri Lanka can afford to integrate more deeply into Asia.
The question is whether Sri Lanka can afford not to.
Knowledge Economy: Turning Universities Into Growth Institutions
Sri Lanka’s universities produce thousands of graduates annually, yet their contribution to commercial innovation remains limited.
Globally, universities have become engines of economic development.
Research institutions should not merely produce graduates; they should produce patents, technologies, startups, and commercial solutions.
A national innovation framework should:
Link universities with industry
Encourage commercialisation of research
Support technology transfer
Expand startup financing
Reward innovation and entrepreneurship
Knowledge must become an economic asset rather than an academic exercise.
Dairy, Agriculture, And Import Substitution
Export growth alone is insufficient.
Sri Lanka must also reduce unnecessary import dependence.
The dairy sector offers a compelling example.
For decades, billions of rupees have left the country through dairy imports despite favourable climatic conditions and substantial agricultural potential.
A comprehensive dairy development strategy should focus on:
Improved genetics
Feed production
Commercial farming
Processing investment
Farmer productivity
The objective should be import substitution combined with rural income growth.
The same principle can be applied selectively to other sectors where domestic production is economically viable.
Creating A National Investment Targeting Agency
Sri Lanka does not need another bureaucracy.
It needs a professional institution dedicated exclusively to investment targeting.
Instead of passively waiting for investors, this agency would actively identify and attract strategic investments aligned with national priorities.
Its mandate would include:
Identifying priority sectors
Marketing opportunities globally
Coordinating approvals
Monitoring outcomes
Facilitating technology transfer
Singapore’s Economic Development Board and Ireland’s Industrial Development Agency demonstrate how targeted investment institutions can transform national economies.
Sri Lanka requires a similar mechanism adapted to local realities.
From Economic Diagnosis To Economic Engineering
The next stage of Sri Lanka’s recovery requires a fundamental shift in thinking.
The policy debate must move beyond identifying problems. The country already knows its problems.The challenge is implementation.Every policy proposal should be evaluated against a simple question:
Will this contribute to achieving 7% growth by 2029?
If the answer is no, resources should be redirected.
Economic engineering requires focus, prioritisation, accountability, and measurable outcomes. The era of fragmented initiatives must give way to a coherent national growth strategy.
Summary
Sri Lanka has achieved significant macroeconomic stabilisation, but stabilisation is only the first step toward sustainable prosperity.
To move from recovery to transformation, Sri Lanka should adopt a National Growth Strategy for 2026-2029 built around five pillars:
Export-led growth
Investment-led growth
Manufacturing expansion
Knowledge-economy development
Regional integration through RCEP and Asian supply chains
Supporting sectors such as dairy, tourism, logistics, and information technology should be strategically developed within this framework.
Most importantly, investment must be targeted rather than scattered, supported by specialised institutions and measurable performance indicators.
Conclusion
History demonstrates that no nation has become prosperous by accident. Economic success is rarely the product of isolated policies or short-term political initiatives. It is the outcome of a deliberate strategy pursued consistently over many years.
Sri Lanka stands at a crossroads.
One path leads to modest growth, periodic crises, recurring debt challenges, and continued vulnerability. The other leads to transformation through investment, exports, innovation, manufacturing, and regional integration.
The choice is ultimately strategic.
The time has come for Sri Lanka to move from economic diagnosis to economic engineering.
The future will not be determined by how successfully the country stabilised after the crisis. It will be determined by how effectively it builds the foundations for sustained growth thereafter. If Sri Lanka can articulate and execute a coherent investment-led growth strategy today, achieving 7% growth by 2029 need not be an aspiration.
It can become a national objective—and a national achievement, economic Engineering
The writer, among many, served as the Special Advisor to the Office of the President of Namibia from 2006 to 2012 and was a Senior Consultant with the UNDP for 20 years. He was a Senior Economist with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (1972-1993). He can be reached via asoka.seneviratne@gmail.com
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