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Verite shows how Lanka can achieve sustainable debt dynamics

Published

4 years ago

2021/10/18

Verité Research, a private think tank that provides strategic analysis for Asia, hosted the online discussion Steering out of the Debt Crisis: Recipe for Budget 2022 on Oct 14. The event was anchored around addressing Sri Lanka’s debt and USD liquidity crisis, and featured presentations by Executive Director, Nishan de Mel, Research Director, Deshal de Mel, and Analyst Anushan Kapilan. An expert panel included Dr. Shantayanan Devaranjan (Georgetown University), Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe (former Senior Deputy Governor – CBSL) and Dr. Mick Moore (Institute of Development Studies – UK).

A press release issued by the think tank said: Verité Research presented analysis pertaining to debt management and fiscal measures, including specific proposals to increase government revenue and improve the allocation of expenditure.

The Verité Research analysis showed that Sri Lanka can achieve sustainable debt dynamics by meeting two conditions with regard to its domestic debt, and two further conditions with regard to its foreign debt. The presentation explained that, despite some challenges, achieving these conditions was feasible for Sri Lanka – provided policy-makers choose to do so.

The main challenges arise from poorly formulated fiscal/budget measures, coupled with the pandemic-induced setbacks which have resulted in successive downgrades of Sri Lanka’s credit ratings. As a result, Sri Lanka has been locked out of global capital markets, and rapidly depleted its foreign reserves, as it has continued to pay back foreign bondholders, at the expense of negative feedback on the local economy.

The Verité Research analysis showed that the worst is yet to come. Sri Lanka’s foreign reserve would be completely depleted by the end of 2022 if no surprise inflows materialise, and even if they did, the crisis would simply re-emerge in 2023. This means that even if Sri Lanka can claim to be technically solvent, it does not have the liquidity to sustainably pay back its foreign debt until the country credit rating is improved by at least two notches.

The current path of repaying debt offers a high return to bondholders at the expense of huge pain to domestic businesses and consumers, and makes the credit rating outlook even more precarious. The solution is to share the pain with bondholders by pre-emptively restructuring the debt. This can improve the foreign reserve position more quickly, and thereby improve the country’s credit rating more quickly as well. This alternative path is less painful to the local economy, offers a faster recovery, with a higher probability of success. It is a better path for the Sri Lankan economy than repaying foreign bondholders in full, even if it were able to do so.

A clear distinction needs to be made between a forced restructuring which would occur if a country were to default in a disorderly way without negotiating with creditors, and an orderly pre-emptive restructuring of debt following negotiations with creditors. The sooner Sri Lanka moves to an orderly pre-emptive debt restructure, the easier it would be to do so, and the more favourable it would be for the Sri Lankan economy. Delaying the decision is damaging and can result in outcomes that are highly disruptive.

Currently the primary deficit is at 7.4% of GDP. At the current GDP growth rate of a little under 4% (predicted by Verité Research), it is necessary to reduce the primary deficit to around 2% of GDP or less to help stabilise the debt.

The Verité Research analysis showed that in the base case scenario with no policy changes, the debt to GDP Ratio would increase to 123.08% by 2025, however with prudent fiscal measures it can be kept down to 108.8% by 2025.

The fiscal measures proposed included the reduction of the personal income threshold to LKR 1 Mn per Annum; the reintroduction of PAYE with a threshold of LKR 1.5Mn; reintroduction of WHT on interest income; increasing the VAT rate to 10% in 2022 and to 12% in 2023; reducing the VAT free thresholds from LKR 300 Mn to LKR 150 Mn in 2022; simplifying the corporate tax regime to a three-tier regime; and increasing the total taxes on cigarettes and alcohol in line with increases in inflation and GDP according to a tobacco taxation formula introduced in the 2019 budget.

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PM on inspection tour of newly renovated Colombo Central Bus Stand

Published

2 hours ago

2026/04/10

Priyan

The Colombo Central Bus Stand, which has a history of over six decades and had remained without a proper maintenance for many years, has now been renovated under the current government’s development programme and vested to the public. Following that, the Prime Minister undertook an inspection tour of the newly renovated Colombo Central Bus Stand.

Originally constructed in 1964, the bus stand was refurbished with modern facilities to meet current needs and was officially reopened to the public on April 8. The primary objective of this initiative is to provide passengers with a higher-quality and more comfortable transportation service.

During the renovation process, special attention has been given to the comfort and safety of women, which was commended by the Prime Minister. In particular, a modern rest area designed to ensure privacy for nursing mothers travelling from distant areas received special praise.

The Prime Minister also reviewed the newly introduced passenger seat reservation system and information services established to assist commuters. In addition, the modern surveillance unit and other security measures installed within the premises to ensure passenger safety were also inspected.

During the visit, the Prime Minister engaged in conversations with passengers at the bus stand and inquired about their views on the newly renovated facilities and the quality of transport services.

It was emphasized that the government’s objective is to transform public transportation into a safe, technologically advanced service that can be used with convenience by all citizens.

(Prime Minister’s Media Division)

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Sun directly overhead Nagawilluwa, Galgamuwa, Sigiriya, Palugasdamana and Mankerni about 12:11 noon today (10)

Published

3 hours ago

2026/04/10

Priyan

On the apparent northward relative motion of the sun, it is going to be directly over the latitudes of Sri Lanka from the 05th to 15th of April in this year.

The nearest areas of Sri Lanka over which the sun is overhead today (10th) are Nagawilluwa, Galgamuwa, Sigiriya, Palugasdamana and Mankerni about 12:11 noon.

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Opposition tells Minister Kumara Jayakody to resign

Published

4 hours ago

2026/04/10

Thilina Walpola

Prof. Peiris

No-faith motion to be taken up today

Former Foreign Minister Prof. G. L. Peiris yesterday (9) said that President Anura Kumara Dissanayake should remove Energy Minister Kumara Jayakody unless the minister stepped down on his own.Prof. Peiris, addressing a press conference called by the Opposition, said that Jayakody couldn’t under any circumstance continue to serve as a minister after the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC) moved the Colombo High Court against the government member over a previous financial scandal.

Pointing out that Minister Jayakody had been indicted of a corrupt deal struck during the yahapalana regime, Prof. Peiris said it was wrong for the NPP to retain him as a minister, claiming that the offence was not committed during his tenure as a Cabinet minister in the current government.

Prof. Peiris and several other Opposition members dealt with the No-Confidence Motion (NCM) against Jayakody that would be taken up today (10) with the academic calling the vote an acid test for the NPP. Having campaigned on an anti-corruption platform at presidential and parliamentary polls, the NPP couldn’t protect Jayakody though he was widely believed to be close to President Dissanayake.

As the Manager of the Procurement and Import Division of the Ceylon Fertilizer Company, Jayakody is alleged to have committed the offence of corruption, according to CIABOC.

Jayakody has been accused of causing a loss of Rs. 8,859,708 to the State by influencing and exploiting the procurement process.

Following the serving of indictments on 27 March, the judge ordered Jayakody’s release on two personal bail bonds of Rs. 1 million each. The court directed that the defendant’s fingerprints be obtained and a formal report be submitted. The case has been scheduled for a pre-trial conference on 6 May.

Prof. Peiris stressed that the CIABOC action against Jayakody is central to the NCM primarily moved over the irregularities ridden coal procurement process launched in 2025 that caused severe disruption to the power generation. Responding to The Island query after the media briefing, Prof Peiris expressed surprise that the JVP/NPP accommodated a person under investigation by the CIABOC. Having taken an utterly irresponsible decision, the JVP/NPP were now playing down the developing issue, prof. Peiris said.

The entire government parliamentary group faced the prospect of having its image tarnished by defending Jayakody, the former lawmaker said.

Prof. Peiris said that they intended to build a campaign around the issues involving the energy minister to expose the government. With yet another electricity tariff hike in the offing due to the growing demand for thermal generation as a result of coal-fired Lakvijaya power plant’s failure to meet the requirement[RA1] , the energy minister and ministry’s performances have to be examined, Prof. Peiris said.The timely release of the Auditor General’s report on controversial coal procurement should compel the government to decide on the energy minister’s fate or be prepared to face the fallout.

By Shamindra Ferdinando