Business

US election outcomes and trade policy changes: What it means for Sri Lanka

Published

1 year ago

2024/11/15

By Dr Asanka Wijesinghe

Now that the United States (US) election has concluded, what direction will the US’s trade policy be headed? This is one of the burning questions that many of its trading partners are asking in the aftermath of the presidential election.

A costly trade war was the outcome of the tariff hikes in 2018 – under the first term of President Trump – which was followed by retaliatory tariffs from the US’s trade partners.

Elected for a second term, he is once again proposing significant tariff increases as trade policy measures. These potential hanges in US tariff policies will have a direct impact on Sri Lanka’s export industries. The US is the top individual export destination of Sri Lanka, accounting for 23.6% of its total exports (Figure 1).Market share of export destinations of Sri Lanka: 2023

The economic justification for a global tariff on imports and its efficacy in achieving the expected results – such as the reshoring of manufacturing employment to the US and price reduction – remains uncertain. This article mainly focuses on the adverse impacts of a tariff increase on Sri Lanka’s exports to the US.

Future of US Trade Policy

The consumer subsidy-based industrial policy, introduced under the Inflation Reduction Act by the incumbent US administration is expected to continue.

However, the effect of a tariff is more direct than a consumer subsidy. On the campaign trail, the US president-elect proposed 10 percentage points on US imports. This is understood as an additional 10% tariff, rather than a new minimum tariff. It implies that there will be an additional 10 percentage point tariff on the existing average tariff rate of 12.6% on the wearing apparel sector, for instance, if the proposed tariff is implemented

The precise rate of the tariff increase remains ambiguous, as a proposal for a 20% additional tariff was suggested later instead of the 10%. In addition, a 60% to 100% tariff is proposed on imports from China. Also, a more complex, country-specific retaliatory tariff schedule has been proposed to align US tariffs with the rates that the US products face in each country.

Effect of a US Global Tariff on

Sri Lankan Exports

An increase in the US tariffs is likely to reduce consumer demand for imported goods. Additionally, an economic downturn in the European Union (EU), triggered by a trade conflict between the US and its trading partners, could further suppress demand for Sri Lanka’s exports.

If an additional 20% tariff is applied on top of the existing average tariffs for all countries, estimates show that Sri Lanka’s exports to the US are expected to suffer a significant negative impact (Figure 2). For example, wearing apparel, Sri Lanka’s major export sector will experience a loss of USD 187.9 Million. As a percentage, this is a contraction of 8.1% from the base year, 2022.

According to the estimates, the proposed tariffs will severely impact Sri Lanka’s exports of rubber and plastic products, as well as other manufactured products like Christmas decorations, brooms and brushes (Figure 2).

As a percentage, about 90% of export loss can be expected in the chemical products sector which includes activated carbon, and essential oil.

If the US imposes a 60% to 100% tariff on imports from China, relatively high pricing on Chinese products could benefit countries like Sri Lanka from trade diversion.

However, the overall rise in import prices resulting from a broader trade war will drastically reduce the US demand for imports, limiting the gains from this trade diversion.

The US trade partners will retaliate with tariffs, similar to the China-US trade war in 2018. The proposed tariff is estimated to cost an average US household more than USD 2,600 a year, once retaliatory tariffs are factored into the analysis. Additionally, the slowdown of US growth, as a possible consequence of a tariff war, will further reduce the country’s import demand.

The spillover effects of tariff wars will also negatively affect Sri Lanka as the EU countries are expected to experience a substantial economic setback. It is estimated that the EU may see its GDP erode by 1.5%, or about Euro 260 billion.

An economic contraction in the EU will reduce the EU imports from Sri Lanka significantly. Thus, the estimated effects in this article can be considered only as the first-round effects.

Campaign Rhetoric or a Credible Threat? The ikelihood of Tariff Hikes and

Sri Lanka’s Options

A blanket tariff increase and an intense trade war between China and the US will drive up the domestic prices in the US, fuelling fear of inflationary pressure. Accordingly, it is unlikely that the proposed tariffs will be fully implemented given the significant impact of inflation on elections in the US.

As the protectionist measures target the US’s manufacturing sector, sub-sectors like light household equipment, decorations, metal products, and machinery may become more vulnerable to future tariff shocks.

These non-traditional exports of Sri Lanka play a major role in export diversification and are generally more complex and technologically sophisticated.

As a small exporting economy, Sri Lanka is susceptible to external factors that are beyond its control. Additionally, Sri Lanka’s limited role as a purchaser of US commodities limits its ability to negotiate lower tariffs. As a result, the toolbox of responses to future US tariff shocks contains only marginal adjustments.

These may include offering import tariff relief for raw materials and providing production subsidies, such as electricity subsidies, to support domestic producers in maintaining their competitiveness. A consultation with the producers in this regard will enable the government to determine the most effective policy measures.

In the medium term, given the global rise of protectionist and industrial policy measures in major export destinations, Sri Lanka will need to maintain preferential tariffs in other regions like the EU.

It will be vital for Sri Lanka to maintain the GSP+ preference and renewed attempts for increased cumulation to increase the GSP+ utilisation will benefit Sri Lanka.

As the expected high tariffs and the technical barriers in the US and the EU are probable in the future, Sri Lanka should maintain the trade policy reforms aiming to join regional trading blocs like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Dr Asanka Wijesinghe is a Research Fellow at IPS with research interests in macroeconomic policy, international trade, labour and health economics.

He holds a BSc in Agricultural Technology and Management from the University of Peradeniya, an MS in Agribusiness and Applied Economics from North Dakota State University, and an MS and PhD in Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics from The Ohio State University.

(Talk with Asanka – asanka@ips.lk)

All News Advertisement

Business

Diplomatic thaw in Middle East sparks hope for Sri Lankan tea exports

Published

4 hours ago

2026/01/17

Thilina Walpola

Iran and the Middle East are important markets for Sri Lankan tea

Amid softening diplomatic rhetoric between the United States and Iran, a senior economist told The Island Financial Review yesterday that the stability of Sri Lanka’s tea exports to the Middle East, particularly Iran, would be maintained.

The economist, who closely follows regional developments, pointed to recent statements by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. President Donald Trump as signs of de-escalation. Araghchi denied plans to execute anti-government protesters, while Trump indicated he had received assurances that killings had stopped and that the U.S. was “watching the process.”

“When geopolitical tensions ease, trade channels stabilise,” the economist said. “Iran and the Middle East are important markets for Sri Lankan tea. Any reduction in political risk is likely to support demand and reduce vulnerability in our export earnings,” he added.

The comments come against the backdrop of this week’s Colombo tea auction, where offerings totalled 6.0 million kilograms. The auction report noted “less activity from Iran and the Middle Eastern markets following recent restrictions in trading conditions,” reflecting the sensitivity of tea exports to regional instability.

Western Slopes and Nuwara Eliya teas showed mixed trends, with some grades firm and others declining. High and Medium Grown CTC teas sold around previous levels, while Low Grown varieties were easier by up to Rs. 20 per kg. Ex-Estate offerings remained steady at 0.74 million kilograms, with no significant change in quality, according to Forbes and Walker Research.

Low Growns, which accounted for approximately 2.4 million kilograms, saw varied demand: the Leafy category was quieter, while Semi-Leafy met with fair interest. Tippy teas faced pressure, especially in the Premium catalogue, where a lack of suitable bids left many unsold.

Selective demand was noted from shippers to the UK, Europe, and South Africa, while markets in Japan, China, the Middle East, and the CIS were reasonably active mostly at lower levels, Forbes and Walker said.

The economist added that while global tea markets remain volatile, any sustained calm in the Middle East could help restore buyer confidence from Iran – a key destination for Sri Lankan Orthodox teas.

“We are not out of the woods yet, but the signs are encouraging,” he said. “If the diplomatic tone continues to improve, we could see firmer demand from the region in the coming weeks,” he said.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

Business

Call for stepped-up economic engagement between SL and Maldives

Published

4 hours ago

2026/01/17

Thilina Walpola

Sudesh Mendis; ‘Potential in steppedup SL-Maldives business links

Sri Lanka is looking to significantly expand its commercial engagement with the Maldives, with business leaders calling for a more focused strategy to capitalise on growing opportunities in trade, services and tourism-linked investments.

Immediate Past President of the Sri Lanka-Maldives Business Council Sudesh Mendis said that the Maldives remains a high-potential market for Sri Lankan exporters and service providers, particularly in construction materials, food and beverage supplies, logistics and professional services aligned with the island nation’s expanding tourism and infrastructure sectors.

“The Maldives offers a demand-driven market where Sri Lankan products and services already enjoy strong acceptance, Mendis said, noting that geographical proximity and long-standing business ties give Sri Lanka a natural competitive advantage.

He said continued resort development, urban housing projects and public infrastructure investments in the Maldives have sustained demand for Sri Lankan goods, while services such as engineering, consultancy and skilled manpower also present room for growth.

However, Mendis stressed that logistical inefficiencies and administrative bottlenecks continue to limit expansion. “Improving shipping connectivity, reducing customs delays and ensuring smoother payment mechanisms are essential if Sri Lankan businesses are to scale up operations, he said.

Tourism collaboration was identified as another underdeveloped area, with Sri Lanka and the Maldives increasingly viewed as complementary destinations rather than rivals. Joint marketing initiatives and multi-destination travel packages could help increase visitor arrivals to both countries, Mendis added.

He also called for stronger private-sector leadership through regular trade missions, sector-focused business forums and targeted policy support to sustain momentum.

“With a coordinated and commercially driven approach, Sri Lanka can substantially deepen its economic presence in the Maldivian market, Mendis said.

Sri Lanka and the Maldives have maintained close economic relations, with bilateral trade expected to gain further traction as regional connectivity improves.

By Ifham Nizam

Business

News of IMF delegation’s visit to SL brings cheer to bourse

Published

4 hours ago

2026/01/17

Thilina Walpola

The CSE commenced trading yesterday on a negative note due to profit-takings but later turned positive, when sections of the media reported that an IMF delegation is to visit Sri Lanka next week to facilitate the fifth review of the extended fund facility to Sri Lanka.

Amid those developments both indices moved upwards. The All Share Price Index went up by 41.42 points, while the S and P SL20 rose by 25.28 points.

Turnover stood at Rs 4.73 billion with ten crossings. Top seven crossings were reported in DFCC, which crossed 4.4 million shares to the tune of Rs 701 million and its shares traded at Rs 159, HNB 250,000 shares crossed for Rs 105 million; its shares traded at Rs 420, Sierra Cables 2 million shares crossed for Rs 75 million; its shares traded at Rs 37.57, Seylan Bank 666,000 shares crossed for Rs 73.4 million; its shares traded at Rs 110.50.

Commercial Bank 300,000 shares crossed for Rs 57.2 million; its shares traded at Rs 225, Sampath Bank 300,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 46.6 million; its shares traded at Rs 155 and Ambeon Capital 1 million shares crossed for Rs 42 million; its shares traded at Rs 43.

In the retail market top seven companies that have mainly contributed to the turnover were; ACL Cables Rs 171 million (1.7 million shares traded), Commercial Bank Rs 153 million (686,000 shares traded), Sierra Cables Rs 130 million (3.5 million shares traded), Sampath Bank Rs 109 million (703,000 shares traded) , HNB Rs 109 million (250,000 shares traded), Lanka Credit and Business Finance Rs 76 million (8.2 million shares traded) and HNB (Non-Voting) Rs 76 million (213,000 shares traded). During the day 132 million share volumes changed hands in 37857 transactions.

It is said that the banking and finance sector led the market, especially HNB and Commercial Bank, while construction related companies, especially Sierra Cables, also performed well at the floor.

The manufacturing and travel and tourism sectors also performed well.

Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 309.50/60 to the US dollar in the spot market weaker from Rs 309.35/50 Wednesday, having depreciated in recent weeks, dealers said, while bond yields were broadly steady.

The telegraphic transfer rates for the American dollar were 305.9000 buying, 312.9000 selling; the British pound was 408.2980 buying, and 419.6162 selling, and the euro was 352.7488 buying, 364.1370 selling.

By Hiran H Senewiratne