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Unveiling Trade Potential: An Ex-Ante Analysis of the Sri Lanka – Thailand Free Trade Agreement

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Nilupulee Rathnayake,Dr Asanka Wijesinghe

New IPS Publication

Sri Lanka and Thailand are engaged in expedited negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA), aiming to conclude the negotiations by early 2024.Both countries share a strong interest in expanding their trade ties, with Sri Lanka seeking preferential access to Thailand’s market and Thailand keen to tap Sri Lanka as a gateway to South Asia and the Middle East.A new IPS study finds substantial gains in bilateral trade from a comprehensive FTA. It highlights navigating the challenges posed by existing tariff structures, trade imbalances, and domestic political considerations will be crucial to ensuring the FTA’s successful implementation.

Sri Lanka and Thailand are engaged in expedited negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA) to enhance bilateral trade, facilitate trade activities, and promote investments. The two nations aim to complete the discussion rounds by the beginning of 2024. A new publication by the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) delves into the potential benefits and challenges of this proposed FTA.

The study titled “Unveiling Trade Potential: An Ex-Ante Analysis of the Sri Lanka – Thailand Free Trade Agreement” by IPS Research Fellow Dr Asanka Wijesinghe and IPS Research Officer Nilupulee Rathnayake offers valuable insights into current tariff structures, bound tariffs, binding overhangs, and the development of offensive lists for both nations, to provide crucial insights for policymakers, trade negotiators, and businesses. Using a comprehensive analytical framework, simulations were conducted for 47 Global Trade Analysis Projects (GTAP) sectors, incorporating sector-specific Armington elasticities to enhance the accuracy of the estimates.

The study highlights the structural differences in the economies of Sri Lanka and Thailand, which bring opportunities and pose challenges from a bilateral trade deal. The analysis reveals that both countries have relatively high tariffs in sectors where the other country has a comparative advantage. For example, Thailand imposes significant tariffs on Sri Lanka’s wearing apparel and tea exports, while Sri Lanka maintains high tariffs on Thailand’s vehicle and parts, rubber products, and light electronics exports. Additionally, trade policy uncertainty exists, mainly due to Sri Lanka’s lower binding coverage, resulting in a binding overhang of 33.1% in agricultural exports from Thailand.

The partial equilibrium analysis predicts a substantial 38% increase in Sri Lanka’s exports to Thailand if tariffs are eliminated, with the wearing apparel and tea sectors poised to benefit the most. In contrast, Thailand is expected to experience a 27.8% increase in exports, slightly lower than Sri Lanka’s gains. However, due to the existing trade imbalance favouring Thailand, Sri Lanka’s post-FTA trade deficit is projected to rise by 26%. To ensure the success of the FTA, the authors note that it will be imperative to reduce tariffs on products where both countries have a comparative advantage and address trade policy uncertainties.

Sri Lanka’s offensive list includes 154 products, mainly in manufacturing sectors, such as wearing apparel, tea products, rubber and plastic products, and electric equipment. Thailand’s offensive list comprises 147 products, encompassing rubber products, household electric equipment (e.g., refrigerators, air-conditioners), malt extracts, and vehicles and parts. These lists play a pivotal role in securing an FTA with substantial trade effects, given the significance of the industries they protect domestically.

While the FTA has the potential to generate substantial trade gains through reduced tariffs, the authors highlight the short-term challenge that comes from the widening trade deficit for Sri Lanka with Thailand, in the wake of full tariff liberalisation. To mitigate this risk and maximise the FTA’s benefits, the authors suggest that both countries must negotiate diligently, considering phased tariff reductions with binding commitments and comprehensive trade adjustment programmes. Expanding the coverage of the proposed FTA to investment promotion and trade facilitation is also suggested as such a deep trade agreement will further enhance the benefits.

Access the full report here: https://www.ips.lk/unveiling-trade-potential-an-ex-ante-analysis-of-the-sri-lanka-thailand-free-trade-agreement/



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Committee appointed for restructuring SriLankan Airlines

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The Cabinet of Ministers has approved the appointment of a Committee, chaired by Senior Presidential Advisor on Digital Economy Dr. Hans Wijayasuriya, to conduct a strategic review and restructuring of SriLankan Airlines.

The other members of the committee are as follows:

• Senior Presidential Economic Advisor Duminda Hulangamuwa

• Financial and corporate strategy expert Deshal De Mel

• Transaction and investment banking, mergers and acquisitions expert Dumith Fernando

• The Secretary to the Ministry of Finance or his Representative

• The Secretary to the Ministry of Transport, Highways and Urban Development / a representative of the Civil Aviation Authority

• The Chairman of SriLankan Airlines

• Legal experts with specialised knowledge in corporate, aviation and public law

• Aviation industry experts to be appointed

The Government has recognised the urgent priority of undertaking a comprehensive strategic review of SriLankan Airlines, taking into account the broader macroeconomic context.

The main objective of this exercise is to establish a financially sustainable and commercially efficient national carrier, while reducing the long-term fiscal burden on the Government.

Accordingly, it has been deemed appropriate to establish a dedicated committee to carry out the strategic review and restructuring process in collaboration with the International Finance Corporation (IFC), which is serving as the Transaction Advisor.

The committee will be responsible for:

• Conducting an independent review and assessment of the airline’s strategic direction and future course of action

• Recommending restructuring requirements and possible restructuring models

• Evaluating specific strategic options and identifying the most suitable course of action aligned with the Government’s overall objectives

• Providing oversight, guidance and support for the implementation of the selected strategy and execution framework determined by the Government

The committee will function for the duration of the strategic review and restructuring process, or until it is formally dissolved by the Government of Sri Lanka.

 (PMD)

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CMTA warns of further Rs. 40 billion revenue leakage in 2026, calls for urgent removal of 15% depreciation

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(L to R): Andrew Perera, Chairman, Ceylon Motor Traders Association and Lakmal de Silva, Senior Vice Chairman, Ceylon Motor Traders Association

The Ceylon Motor Traders’ Association (CMTA), the senior-most automotive association in Sri Lanka affiliated with the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, has issued an urgent appeal to the government to abolish the 15% depreciation currently granted on used vehicle imports, warning that the concession is causing massive revenue leakages at a time when the country can least afford them.

The Association estimates that the existing depreciation mechanism resulted in approximately Rs. 40 billion in lost government revenue in 2025 alone. If corrective action is not taken immediately, a similar level of revenue leakage could occur in 2026, further impacting the government’s fiscal position and depriving the country of much-needed funds for national development and public services.

The Association notes that loopholes within the existing system have created opportunities for misuse, resulting not only in unfair advantages for certain importers but also in substantial losses to government revenue. Addressing these abuses, alongside the removal of the 15% depreciation concession, is essential to ensuring greater transparency, strengthening regulatory oversight, and protecting the integrity of Sri Lanka’s vehicle import sector.

While no official announcement has yet been made regarding the removal of the 15% depreciation, the CMTA has consistently highlighted the issue through multiple budget proposals submitted via the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce. The Association has repeatedly maintained that there is no viable justification for the continued application of this concession on used vehicle imports.

Currently, used vehicles receive a 15% depreciation on their Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) value for duty calculation purposes. However, the vast majority of vehicles entering the country through the used vehicle market are virtually zero-mileage units, with CIF values that are often comparable to those of brand-new vehicles. In such circumstances, the CMTA argues that granting a blanket 15% depreciation creates an unfair and unjustifiable tax advantage while significantly reducing government revenue collections.

The Association acknowledges that if the objective through this concession is making vehicles more affordable for consumers, then the CMTA stresses that affordability cannot be achieved through arbitrary concessions that create market distortions and substantial losses to the Treasury. If the intention is to reduce vehicle prices, similar policy considerations could be extended to brand-new vehicles rather than selectively benefiting one segment of the market.

Consumers who purchase brand-new vehicles benefit from manufacturer warranties, which help mitigate maintenance and repair costs during the warranty period. As a result, vehicle owners are less likely to incur additional expenses associated with importing replacement parts, providing greater long-term value, reliability, and peace of mind.

The CMTA further notes that as far back as 2013, a structured depreciation framework was implemented based on the age of a vehicle, rather than a flat-rate concession. Under this proposal, depreciation would be calculated according to a defined scale and capped at a maximum of 10%, ensuring greater fairness, transparency and alignment with the actual value of the vehicle.

The Association stated that the continued application of a blanket 15% depreciation is resulting in significant and unnecessary revenue leakages for the government. At a time when every rupee of revenue is critical to the country’s economic progress, this issue requires immediate attention and decisive action.

The CMTA therefore strongly urges the relevant authorities to take swift action to abolish the current 15% depreciation concession and close this avenue of revenue leakage without delay. The Association emphasises that every month of inaction increases the risk of further losses to the state and undermines efforts to strengthen public finances.

Should the government determine that some form of concession should continue to be extended to the used vehicle market, the CMTA maintains that it must be implemented through a structured and transparent framework based on vehicle age and capped at a reasonable level. Such an approach would ensure fairness while safeguarding government revenue and maintaining a level playing field across the automotive industry.

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Climate adaptation now a business survival imperative, experts warn

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Businesses in Sri Lanka risk severe financial and operational disruption unless they urgently invest in climate adaptation and resilience measures, leading climate experts warned at a high-level dialogue on “Climate-Proofing Business Sri Lanka” held on Wednesday at Genesis – The Dilmah Centre for a Sustainable Future.

The event, jointly organized by Genesis and the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, brought together corporate leaders, sustainability professionals, policymakers and climate specialists to discuss how climate change is rapidly emerging as one of the biggest risks facing Sri Lanka’s economy.

Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management Specialist Rohan Cooray said climate-related disasters were already exacting a heavy economic toll globally and locally.

He noted that climate-induced losses divert resources that could otherwise be invested in economic development and business growth and stressed the need for stronger adaptation measures to protect investments and livelihoods.

Delivering the keynote address, internationally renowned climate lawyer and governance specialist Dr. Lalanath de Silva said climate change was no longer a future threat but a present-day economic reality that businesses could not afford to ignore.

“The impacts are coming whether we like it or not,” he said. “The question is whether we prepare now or pay a much higher price later.”

Dr. de Silva explained that while global efforts have largely focused on mitigation—reducing greenhouse gas emissions—adaptation has become equally important, particularly for vulnerable countries such as Sri Lanka.

“Sri Lanka contributes less than one percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet we are among the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts,” he said.

He warned that climate change would alter rainfall patterns, intensify floods and droughts, increase the frequency of extreme weather events and place growing pressure on infrastructure, agriculture, water resources and businesses.

“We are very good at producing plans in Sri Lanka. What we have not been good at is implementing them.”

Calling for stronger institutional coordination, Dr. de Silva proposed the establishment of a high-level climate coordination mechanism operating at the highest level of government to ensure coherent action across ministries and agencies.

Providing scientific context to the discussion, Cooray presented projections based on global and regional climate models adopted by Sri Lanka’s Department of Meteorology.

According to Cooray, rainfall patterns across Sri Lanka are expected to become increasingly erratic.

The wet zone is projected to receive more intense rainfall events while many dry-zone regions could experience prolonged drought conditions interspersed with extreme rainfall episodes.

“The danger is not simply that some places become wetter and others become drier. The danger is the increasing variability and unpredictability of rainfall,” he said.

While mitigation projects often generate measurable returns, adaptation investments require innovative financing mechanisms and stronger public-private partnerships, speakers noted.

The event also featured contributions from Dilhan C. Fernando, chairman of Dilmah Ceylon Tea Company PLC; Shiran Fernando, Secretary General and CEO of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce; and Yasangi Randeni, Chief Sustainability Officer of Aitken Spence PLC.

Speakers agreed that climate-proofing businesses is no longer simply about environmental responsibility but about safeguarding assets, maintaining competitiveness, protecting supply chains and ensuring long-term economic sustainability.

The consensus emerging from the forum was clear: while mitigation remains important, Sri Lanka’s immediate priority must be preparing businesses, communities and institutions for climate impacts that are already unavoidable.

By Ifham Nizam

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