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Unveiling Trade Potential: An Ex-Ante Analysis of the Sri Lanka – Thailand Free Trade Agreement

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Nilupulee Rathnayake,Dr Asanka Wijesinghe

New IPS Publication

Sri Lanka and Thailand are engaged in expedited negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA), aiming to conclude the negotiations by early 2024.Both countries share a strong interest in expanding their trade ties, with Sri Lanka seeking preferential access to Thailand’s market and Thailand keen to tap Sri Lanka as a gateway to South Asia and the Middle East.A new IPS study finds substantial gains in bilateral trade from a comprehensive FTA. It highlights navigating the challenges posed by existing tariff structures, trade imbalances, and domestic political considerations will be crucial to ensuring the FTA’s successful implementation.

Sri Lanka and Thailand are engaged in expedited negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA) to enhance bilateral trade, facilitate trade activities, and promote investments. The two nations aim to complete the discussion rounds by the beginning of 2024. A new publication by the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) delves into the potential benefits and challenges of this proposed FTA.

The study titled “Unveiling Trade Potential: An Ex-Ante Analysis of the Sri Lanka – Thailand Free Trade Agreement” by IPS Research Fellow Dr Asanka Wijesinghe and IPS Research Officer Nilupulee Rathnayake offers valuable insights into current tariff structures, bound tariffs, binding overhangs, and the development of offensive lists for both nations, to provide crucial insights for policymakers, trade negotiators, and businesses. Using a comprehensive analytical framework, simulations were conducted for 47 Global Trade Analysis Projects (GTAP) sectors, incorporating sector-specific Armington elasticities to enhance the accuracy of the estimates.

The study highlights the structural differences in the economies of Sri Lanka and Thailand, which bring opportunities and pose challenges from a bilateral trade deal. The analysis reveals that both countries have relatively high tariffs in sectors where the other country has a comparative advantage. For example, Thailand imposes significant tariffs on Sri Lanka’s wearing apparel and tea exports, while Sri Lanka maintains high tariffs on Thailand’s vehicle and parts, rubber products, and light electronics exports. Additionally, trade policy uncertainty exists, mainly due to Sri Lanka’s lower binding coverage, resulting in a binding overhang of 33.1% in agricultural exports from Thailand.

The partial equilibrium analysis predicts a substantial 38% increase in Sri Lanka’s exports to Thailand if tariffs are eliminated, with the wearing apparel and tea sectors poised to benefit the most. In contrast, Thailand is expected to experience a 27.8% increase in exports, slightly lower than Sri Lanka’s gains. However, due to the existing trade imbalance favouring Thailand, Sri Lanka’s post-FTA trade deficit is projected to rise by 26%. To ensure the success of the FTA, the authors note that it will be imperative to reduce tariffs on products where both countries have a comparative advantage and address trade policy uncertainties.

Sri Lanka’s offensive list includes 154 products, mainly in manufacturing sectors, such as wearing apparel, tea products, rubber and plastic products, and electric equipment. Thailand’s offensive list comprises 147 products, encompassing rubber products, household electric equipment (e.g., refrigerators, air-conditioners), malt extracts, and vehicles and parts. These lists play a pivotal role in securing an FTA with substantial trade effects, given the significance of the industries they protect domestically.

While the FTA has the potential to generate substantial trade gains through reduced tariffs, the authors highlight the short-term challenge that comes from the widening trade deficit for Sri Lanka with Thailand, in the wake of full tariff liberalisation. To mitigate this risk and maximise the FTA’s benefits, the authors suggest that both countries must negotiate diligently, considering phased tariff reductions with binding commitments and comprehensive trade adjustment programmes. Expanding the coverage of the proposed FTA to investment promotion and trade facilitation is also suggested as such a deep trade agreement will further enhance the benefits.

Access the full report here: https://www.ips.lk/unveiling-trade-potential-an-ex-ante-analysis-of-the-sri-lanka-thailand-free-trade-agreement/



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UN Global Compact Network Sri Lanka mobilizes business to lead with purpose

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As businesses navigate an increasingly complex operating environment shaped by workforce transformation, evolving stakeholder expectations, technological disruption and shifting market demands, strengthening performance requires more than new strategies. It requires new ways of thinking, leading, and collaborating.

It was against this backdrop that UN Global Compact Network Sri Lanka convened CATALYZE 2026: Social, bringing together business leaders, sustainability practitioners, policymakers, development partners and industry experts to mobilize collective action and equip businesses with the knowledge, partnerships and practical approaches needed to strengthen performance through responsible business.

More than a forum for dialogue, CATALYZE 2026 was designed to help businesses think differently about performance. It reinforced that long-term success is increasingly shaped by how organizations lead, uphold human rights, foster inclusive workplaces, strengthen ethical governance, and build cultures that enable innovation, resilience and trust. Responsible business is no longer separate from business performance — it is fundamental to it.

Aligned with the UN Global Compact’s 2026–2030 Global Strategy, the Forum reflected its three strategic pillars — Equip, Catalyze and Advance — by strengthening business capability, fostering collaboration and mobilizing leadership to accelerate progress on social sustainability.

UN Global Compact Network Sri Lanka’s approach to social sustainability centres on driving this change — recognizing that meaningful progress comes not only through policies and commitments, but through the everyday decisions, leadership behaviours and organizational cultures that shape how businesses operate. CATALYZE 2026: Social encouraged participants to move beyond intention towards implementation, embedding responsible business practices into strategy, governance and organizational culture.

Opening the CATALYZE 2026: Social, Rathika de Silva, Executive Director of UN Global Compact Network Sri Lanka, spoke to the role of responsible business leadership in strengthening Sri Lanka’s global competitiveness:

“Sri Lanka has the workforce, resilience, and opportunity to compete not by being the cheapest producer, but by becoming the most trusted. As global expectations evolve, compliance is no longer simply a cost of doing business — it is the foundation of market access, and the decisions we make today will determine how strongly we compete in the markets of the future.”

The Forum featured keynote addresses, leadership dialogues and technical sessions on the issues shaping the future of business, including business integrity and anti-corruption, human rights, neurodiversity and inclusive workplaces, artificial intelligence and the future of jobs, the Women’s Empowerment Principles (WEPs), responsible sustainability communications, and workforce resilience. Together, these discussions highlighted how responsible leadership, inclusive practices, and strong governance contribute to organizational resilience, innovation, and long-term performance.

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A regional conversation on the future of English language teaching

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Free British Council online conference brings together leading educators from across South Asia to explore how creativity, inclusion and technology can help prepare learners for a rapidly changing world

The British Council has announced the South Asia TeachingEnglish Online Conference 2026, a free three-day event that will convene educators, researchers and teacher educators from across the region to examine one of the most pressing questions facing education today: how can schools equip learners with the creativity, adaptability and communication skills needed to thrive in an increasingly complex world?

Taking place from 23–25 July 2026, the online conference comes at a time when education systems across South Asia are grappling with the challenge of balancing curriculum demands, assessment pressures and evolving learner needs. While English remains a critical gateway to academic and professional opportunities, educators are increasingly seeking approaches that move beyond language acquisition alone to foster critical thinking, collaboration, learner agency and participation.

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The Ceylon Chamber convenes dialogue on energy security and standards for Sri Lanka’s energy transition

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The Ceylon Chamber of Commerce recently hosted a discussion titled “Energy Transition in Sri Lanka: Strategic Insights from Global Markets”, bringing together representatives from the public and private sectors, industry experts, academics, and other stakeholders to examine the opportunities and challenges associated with Sri Lanka’s evolving energy landscape.

Held at a time when countries around the world are accelerating their transition towards cleaner, more resilient, and technology-driven energy systems, the event provided a timely platform to examine renewable energy not only as an environmental priority but as a strategic pillar of national energy security, with implications for economic growth and long-term competitiveness. The discussion also considered the increasing importance of reliable energy infrastructure in meeting the growing demands of digital transformation, including emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, electric mobility, and data centres.

The programme covered a wide range of topics relevant to Sri Lanka’s energy future, including renewable energy development, energy security, regulatory and policy frameworks, electricity sector reforms, energy storage systems, grid modernization, investment and financing considerations, and international experiences in energy transition. Particular attention was given to the need for creating an enabling environment that supports innovation, attracts investment, including the technical and safety standards required to protect consumers and businesses as storage and solar adoption scales nationally.

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