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Unexplored options to raise revenue

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A protest against tax hikes

by Neville Ladduwahetty

What Sri Lanka has achieved since it declared itself insolvent is hailed by some with much optimism. The “relative stability” currently experienced is presented by the Governor of the Central Bank “as the outcome of a united effort from the outset” (The Island, December 26, 2023). The focus of that collaborative effort was on monetary policy as stated by the Governor who went on to add, “Now the Central Bank has independence that insulates monetary policy from political interference and thus the institution has been strengthened.  The other side of the coin is the government’s fiscal policy.    People elect their representative to make fiscal policy to direct the economy…” (Ibid).  This separation of responsibilities holds the government and the Parliament collectively responsible for the impact of its fiscal policies on the livelihood of the People through the choices reflected in the 2024 Budget as it has been with previous Budgets.

For instance, the choices made were that expenditure should be Rs.6.98 Trillion and the projected Revenue should be Rs.4.107 Trillion resulting in a deficit of Rs.2.88 Trillion. This in a nutshell was the decision of the Government and that of the majority in Parliament when they passed the Budget.    The bulk of the projected Revenue of Rs. 4.107 Trillion reflects an increase of the 2023 Budget by 1.27 Trillion (45%).    The taxes that are of relevance to the comments addressed below to meet this increase are those collected from VAT amounting to 720 Billion and only Rs. 50 Billion from personal taxes (Public Finance Data and Analysis).

While the attention and preoccupation of the Central bank and the Government over the last two years was on monetary and fiscal policies, the social impact of the crisis on the People appear to have received less attention, judging from the priorities selected to raise revenues.

SOCIAL IMPACT of CRISIS

The Ceylon Today of December 27, covers a few key features from a report released by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) on December 22.    The DCS report stated that ” survey findings indicate that currently 54.9 per cent of households in Sri Lanka are currently indebted,…The highest proportion of indebtedness is from mortgage matters (31 per cent) followed by banks (21.9 per cent) and the money lenders (9.7 per cent) … 91 percent of the households experienced an increase in their total average monthly expenditure, 22 percent of households have got indebted due to the economic crisis, the schooling of 54.9 percent of individuals (aged 3 – 21) was also affected by the economic crisis and 7 per cent of total population changed their health treatment procedures… Among households that reported an increase in their average monthly expenditure, the most commonly reported reason, accounting for 99.1 percent, was the increase in food expenses”.

Continuing the DCS report states: “The primary strategy adopted by the majority (53.2) percent of guardians/parents of school going children affected by the economic crisis was to either reduce their expenditure on new stationery or to completely stop such purchases…as new uniforms…. Additionally, reducing the frequency of attending tuition classes” (Ibid).

RAISING PROJECTED REVENUE

The social background presented above is the context in which projected revenue is to be raised.     In addition, “Nearly half of the labour force receives less than Rs. 30,000 monthly salary while 3.91 million families out of 5.8 million families are seeking state assistance to continue their livelihoods” (Daily Morning, December 28, 2023).    In short, IF 2/3 of the families are receiving state assistance, they are not in a position to contribute to the projected increase in revenue of Rs. 720 Billion from VAT.

On the other hand, the personal taxes of only Rs. 50 Billion are collected from those who, at a minimum are assured of food security while additional VAT taxes amounting to Rs. 720 Billion, which is 14.4 times personal taxes, have to be collected from a much broader swath of the population, the majority of whom are victims of food security.

This reflects the imbalance in the choices opted for when formulating fiscal policy.     Whether this imbalance, particularly in regard to VAT, is the result of preferences of the IMF as a ready means of raising revenue or from sections of society with influence, is not known.     Whatever the case may be, IF the economic situation in the country as reflected in the surveys conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics is taken into account with the seriousness it deserves, imposing the burden of the increased VAT on an already beleaguered populace could lead not only to political instability but also the inability to raise the projected contributions from VAT.     Furthermore, if the preoccupation of a large section of the population is on survival and other priorities, a drop in demand due to increased hardships is bound to have an impact on inflation.

The potential of these collective consequences could very well outweigh the expectations of improved stability hoped for.    On the other hand, it would be prudent to explore options that have not been explored before to raise revenues at a minimum cost to the vulnerable.

EXPLORING OPTIONS to RAISE REVENUES

One area that has not been explored, except for passing reference, is taxes relating to property.    The reluctance to do so may be because property taxes impact those who own property.    On the other hand, advanced economies use property taxes as the source to fund primary and secondary education and other community-based services.    Since such practices do not exist in Sri Lanka, it is imperative that current practices adopted to assess property values are reviewed and drastically revised.

For instance, within the Municipality of Colombo there are properties with a market value of over Rs. 100 Million, yet their annual property taxes are in the range of Rs. 2500 to 3000; not enough to cover the cost of garbage collection.   In more exclusive neighborhoods the property taxes are in the range of 0.05 % of their market values even for new high-rise units.

The Colombo Municipality is reported to collect Rs. 5.7 Billion in property taxes.    There are 13 other Municipalities in the rest of Sri Lanka.    Taking into account that they are not as affluent as Colombo, they could perhaps contribute about Rs. 3.0 Billion each by way of increased property taxes.    Thus, if property taxes are significantly increased collectively, the total contribution could be in the range of about Rs. 40 to 45 Billion, which incidentally is close to the Rs. 50 Billion by way of personal income tax figured as contributing to meet the increase in Revenue needed by the 2024 Budget.    If increased property taxes at the rate of 1 Billion each from the 37 Urban Councils are added, they too could contribute an additional Rs. 30 to 40 Billion, thus making the total contributions from property taxes significant enough not to be scoffed at.

Over the last two years, Sri Lanka has been actively engaged with the IMF on issues relating to Debt Restructuring.  One of the primary issues raised by the IMF is the need to increase Revenues with a view to reducing Budget deficits.     Over these two years, the Inland Revenue Department should have been aware that it would be called upon to play a major role in this exercise.

Despite this awareness, the number of files relating to Personal Income Tax increased from 204,467 to 500,196 ONLY “by end November 2023” as admitted by the Commissioner of the IRD at a Presidential Media briefing.     The Commissioner had also stated that “it was possible to raise (taxes) to 1,500 billion by widening the tax base and by changing tax rates,” (ECONOMYNEXT, December 29, 2023).

Since this represents a 50% increase over the 2019 tax Revenue, the awareness of such a possibility would have convinced the Government that the policy of raising Revenues from VAT to the extent reflected in the 2024 Budget would amount to an overkill with serious social implications.

The two hundred thousand plus files that had existed throughout 2023 represent ONLY ONE per cent of the population, which according to the UNDP Country Economist, Dr. Gunasekara “owns 31% of the total personal wealth in the country, while the bottom 50% owns less than 4% of the overall wealth in the country” (Daily FT, December 21, 2023).

Had the IRD exercised due diligence over the past years and in particular during the last two years, the country could have secured a significant amount of funds to mitigate not only past Budget deficits, but also the 2024 Budget to the point of reducing the funds needed through VAT, thereby easing the burdens on the “bottom 50%”, most of whom are already victims of poverty.

Another serious omission is the reluctance of the Government and the Central Bank to repeal the existing Exchange Control Act with a view to exercising greater control and jurisdiction over Dollar funds that are involved in foreign transactions.     Such a measure has the potential to improve reserves without having to resort to the temptation of more loans that someday have to be restructured and paid back.

CONCLUSION

The primary aim of the Central Bank and the Government appears to have been to please the IMF in order to secure the long-awaited second tranche of the 2.9 Billion loan.  The compulsion for this is because continued funding from the IMF would be viewed favourably by the international community to seek further loans.

The hard reality is that all the government can hope for is to explore fresh sources of raising revenues with the view of mitigating the burdens imposed not only on those that contribute to employment but also the vulnerable sectors of society.    For instance, manufacturing and other sectors that provide employment have already expressed their deep concerns about the negative impact of raising additional revenue from increased VAT. Furthermore, the situation of the bottom 50% especially regarding food would be more acute than it currently is; a fact that would have a direct bearing on the ability to raise the projected revenues. How their frustrations are going to manifest, particularly in an election year, is not known.    What is known to them, however, is the awareness that they ultimately are the victims who end up paying the price for the misguided policies of failed governments and interest groups.

A report in The Daily Morning titled, “South Asia’s food crisis is alarming” states: “Misguided priorities combined with short-term political thinking have made South Asia the epicenter of the world’s food insecure – hunger zone… According to the FAO’s latest report… many struggle to manage two square meals for their family. Clearly, government policies on food accessibility and distribution are not working on the ground.     The underlying problem runs deep as 74.1 percent of Indians, 82.8 percent of Pakistanis, 76.4 per cent of Nepalis, 66.1 percent of Bangladeshis and 55.5 percent of Sri Lankans face serious difficulties in managing a healthy meal for their family” (December 29, 2023).

Although Parliament approved the 2024 Budget, it is too early for the populace to experience the full impact of its provisions. Therefore, instead of waiting for the bottom 50% to experience its full impact and face its consequences, it would be more prudent for the Government to explore hitherto unexplored options on lines similar to those presented herein, and take steps to mitigate the severity of the measures and policies in the 2024 Budget so that, they could breathe easier in these grim times and sustain the “relative stability” currently experienced.



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Iain Douglas-Hamilton: Science, courage, and the battle for elephants

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Iain Douglas-Hamilton

Passing of Iain Douglas-Hamilton, a man who dedicated his life to conservation and whose life’s work leaves a lasting impact on our appreciation for, and understanding of, elephants.

– Prince William

In Africa on 08 December, 2025, when the sun slipped below the horizon, it did not only give an end for that day, but it also marked the end of a man whose knowledge and courage saved Africa’s elephants. This gentleman was none other than Iain Douglas-Hamilton! There is a beautiful African proverb that says, “When an old man dies, a library burns to the ground,” and it resonates well with Iain’s demise.

Iain pioneered behaviour research on elephants, and he was the first to highlight the elephant poaching crisis in Africa. Also, the adventures he went through to save the elephants will inspire generations.

From Oxford to Africa

The Life of the Last Proboscideans: Elephants”, authored by Muthukumarana, stands as an awardwinning, comprehensive study that integrates elephant evolution, anthropology, biology, behaviour, and conservation science.

Iain was born on 16 August, 1942, into an aristocratic family, the son of Lord David Douglas-Hamilton and Ann Prunella Stack. His parents were a distinguished couple in Britain: his father, a Scottish nobleman, served as a squadron leader in the Royal Air Force, while his mother was a pioneering figure in physical fitness and a prominent advocate for women’s rights. After finishing his school, Iain was admitted to Oxford University to study zoology. At the age of 23, for his PhD, Iain travelled to Tanzania to study the behaviour of elephants at Lake Manyara National Park. This was a daring and humble beginning that would change how the world understood elephants. He learnt to recognise individual animals based on their tusks and ears. He observed their family bonds, their grief, and their intelligence. These findings made the scientific community identify elephants as sentimental beings. During this period, he married Oria Rocco, and together they had two children, Saba and Mara.

Battle for the elephants

When ivory poaching swept across Africa and devastated elephant populations, Iain did not withdraw in despair. He confronted the crisis head-on, guided by science, rigorous data, and unwavering resolve. Through extensive aerial counts and field studies, he laid bare the scale of the tragedy—revealing that Africa’s elephant numbers had collapsed from an estimated 1.3 million to just about 600,000 in little more than 10 years.

It was largely thanks to his work that the global community saw—perhaps for the first time—the full scope of the crisis. His efforts played a pivotal role in pushing forward the 1989 international ban on ivory trade, a landmark moment for wildlife conservation.

In 1993, Iain founded Save the Elephants (STE), an organisation that would become the heart of elephant conservation efforts in Kenya and across Africa.

At STE, he pioneered the use of GPS-tracking and aerial survey techniques to monitor elephant movements, protect them from poaching, and plan safe corridors for them in increasingly human-dominated landscapes. These methods have since become standard tools in wildlife conservation worldwide.

Beyond technology and science, Iain was a mentor. He inspired — and continues to inspire — generations of conservationists, researchers, and everyday people who care deeply about wildlife. Through his books (such as Among the Elephants and Battle for the Elephants), documentaries, lectures, and personal example, he invited the world to see elephants not as trophies or commodities, but as sentient beings — worthy of awe, study, and protection.

Iain and Sri Lanka

In 2003 Iain came to Sri Lanka for the first time to attend the “Symposium on Human-Elephant Relationships and Conflict” as the keynote speaker. On that day he concluded his address by saying, “When I hear the talk of Problem Animal Control, I always wonder whether our species has the capacity for its own self-regulation or Problem Human Control in a humane and wise manner. HEC stands for Human Elephant Conflict, one of our focuses of this conference. How I wish it could come to stand for Human Elephant Coexistence, based on a recognition that other beings also need their space to live in. We are a long way from that, but I am sure that many of the findings of the talented body of researchers in this room will begin a stepwise progress in answering some of these fundamental problems.”

A few years ago Iain’s organisation STE collaborated with the Sri Lankan Wildlife Conservation Society for research activities aimed at reducing human-elephant conflict. In 2016 when the Sri Lankan government was going to destroy the confiscated illegal African elephant ivory, I made a request for Iain to write a congratulatory message to Sri Lanka’s President and Prime Minister for the wise decision they had taken. Iain sent me a four-page meaningful letter written by him, and he was joined by 18 other conservation organisations. In his letter he mentioned, “I want to offer my congratulations to the government of Sri Lanka for the laudable decision to destroy ivory stocks…” Sri Lanka is sending a message to the world that ivory should be without worth; elephants have value when alive. This is a critical message to send, particularly to the religious world, as they are sensitised about the threat religious ivory poses to elephant populations in Africa.”

Fortunately, Iain’s conservation is taken up by his children, especially his eldest daughter, Saba. In 2016 and 2024 she came to Sri Lanka for a lecture hosted by the Galle Literary Festival. Also in 2019, for the Wildlife and Nature Protection Society’s 125th Anniversary, Saba and her husband visited a gala dinner that was held to fundraise for conservation projects.

A difficult path

Iain’s path was never easy. He endured personal peril many times: from hostile terrain and unpredictable wild animals to being shot at by poachers while conducting aerial patrols over war-torn national parks.

Yet despite the danger, despite setbacks — flooded camps, lost data, shifting political tides — his conviction never wavered. His was a life marked by resilience. He refused complacency. He refused to surrender. And through every hardship, he remembered why he began: to give elephants a future.

Iain was also a pilot, and as the old English saying goes, “Pilots don’t die; they simply fly higher.” In that spirit, I wish the same peaceful ascent for Iain. My heartfelt condolences are with Iain’s family.

by Tharindu Muthukumarana ✍️
tharinduele@gmail.com
(Author of the award-winning book “The Life of Last Proboscideans: Elephants”)




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Awesome power of gratitude

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When you hear the word gratitude the first impression you get is a tail-wagging dog. If you feed a dog one day, it will wag its tail even if you meet it after a few years. That is gratitude. In addition, dogs are great teachers. They are at home in the world. They live in the moment and they force us to stay with them. Dogs love us and remain grateful unconditionally not for our bodies or bank accounts.

Small children are taught to say ‘Thank you’ for any favour they receive from others. They do not know that the two words can have positive effects on your health and the well-being of others.

Some time ago I had to call emergency services as I found one of my family members was unconscious. Within minutes an ambulance arrived and the paramedics whisked the patient away to the nearest hospital. He was in intensive care for a few days and returned home. We were marvelled at the impact of a handful of strangers who took charge of the patient at a critical time. I immediately wrote thank you notes to those who saved the patient’s life. I knew that it was a small gesture on my part. However, it was the only way I could express my gratitude to a dedicated team.

Selfless people

Later I realized that there are a large number of selfless people who do life-saving work, but they never expect anything in return. How volunteers saved a large number of flood victims is a case in point. The flood victims may not have expressed their gratitude in so many words. However, they would have felt a deep sense of gratitude to the volunteers who saved them.

Why do people come forward to help those facing natural disasters and other dangerous situations? A recent research in the United States shows that sharing thoughts of gratitude and performing acts of kindness can boost your mood and have other positive effects on your health. Almost all religions teach that gratitude does have a good impact on your happiness. Professor of Psychology Willibald Ruch says that gratitude is among the top five predictors of happiness.

By showing gratitude you can make positive changes in your own life. If you feel a sense of gratitude whenever you receive something that is good for you, it will be a healthy sign. You cannot get such a feeling in a vacuum because others have to play their roles. They can be your loved ones, friends, strangers or even people in authority. Gratitude is how you relate to them when you see yourself in connection with things larger than yourself.

Gratification lifestyle

Strangely, many people do not pause to appreciate what others are doing for them. For this you have to blame your gratification lifestyle. With the popularity of social media the young people feel that they are the centre of the universe. They seem to think there is no necessity to thank those who help them.

Why should we thank others even for minor favours? Recent studies show that those who express gratitude increase their own happiness levels. They also lower their blood pressure levels to a great extent. On the other hand, they will be able to sleep well and improve their relationships. They are also less affected by pain because of the positive impact on their depression.

They may not know that positive effects of gratitude are long lasting. Research shows that those who write thank you notes improve their mental health. There was also a decrease in their bodily pains. What is more, they feel more energetic in completing their daily activities. Unfortunately, schools and universities do not teach the value of gratitude since it is fairly a new field of study. Researchers are still trying to find out its cause and effect relationship. We know that those who perform acts of gratitude can sleep well. However, we do not know the reason for it. Researchers are wondering whether gratitude leads to better sleep or sleep leads to more gratitude. They also probe whether there is another variable that leads to gratitude and improved sleep.

Children

Despite such controversies, we know for certain that gratitude can benefit people at any stage of life. Most elderly people remain grateful for their children and grandchildren who support them. Elderly people cannot regain their physical strength or mental agility. Therefore they focus on gratitude. They are thankful to their children and grandchildren for their present situation.

How do gratitude recipients react? Research shows that those who receive thank you notes or acts of kindness experience positive emotions. You feel happy when someone holds a door open for you. Similarly, you are happy if you receive some unexpected help. Recently I was pleasantly surprised to see that someone has credited a big sum of money to my bank account in appreciation of a small favour I had done.

When you thank someone they are more likely to return the favour or pay kindness forward. Psychologically, people feel very happy when you thank them. However, some people hesitate to say thank you. The give-and-take of gratitude deepens relationships. In a close relationship husbands and wives do not thank each other. However, there are other ways of showing gratitude. A wife can make her husband feel appreciated. Such a feeling of appreciation will go a long way to strengthen their relationship.

Some people are ungrateful by nature. However, they can learn the art of being grateful. Such people will do well to maintain a gratitude journal. It is something similar to Pinpotha maintained by Buddhists in the past. They can record positive events in the journal. At the beginning this may not be easy. With practice, however, you can do it well. I knew of a man who kept a gratitude journal. Although his family members laughed at him, he did not give up the habit. When he was diagnosed with a terminal disease he used to read his gratitude journal very happily.

By R.S. Karunaratne ✍️

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Another Christmas, Another Disaster, Another Recovery Mountain to Climb

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In line with its overall response to Cyclone Ditwah that devastated many parts of Sri Lanka, India has undertaken to set up temporary Bailey Bridges at selected locations. Work on the first such bridge has begun in Kilinochchi on the Paranthan–Karaichi–Mullaitivu A35 road. Indian Army engineers are working with their counterparts. The Indian HC said that 185 tonnes of Bailey Bridge units were airlifted to restore critical connectivity, along with 44 engineers (Pic courtesy IHC)

The 2004 Asian Tsunami erupted the day after Christmas. Like the Boxing Day Test Match in Brisbane, it was a boxing day bolt for Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, India and Maldives. Twenty one years later, in 2025, multiple Asian cyclones hit almost all the old victims and added a few more, including Malayasia, Vietnam and Cambodia. Indonesia and Sri Lanka were hit hard both times. Unlike the 2004 Tsunami, the 2025 cyclones made landfalls weeks before Christmas, during the Christian Season of Advent, the four-week period before Christmas preparing for the arrival of the Messiah. An ominously adventus manifestation of the nature’s fury.

Yet it was not the “day of wrath and doom impending … heaven and earth in ashes ending” – heavenly punishment for government lying, as an opposition politician ignorantly asserted. By that token, the gods must have opted to punish half a dozen other Asian countries for the NPP government’s lying in Sri Lanka. Or all those governments have been caught lying. Everyone is caught and punished for lying, except the world’s Commander in Chief for lying – Donald J. Trump. But as of late and none too sooner, President Trump is getting his punishment in spades. Who would have thought?

In fairness, even the Catholic Church has banished its old hymn of wrath (Dies irae, dies illa) that used to be sung at funerals from its current Missals; and it has on offer, many other hymns of peace and joy, especially befitting the Christmas season. Although this year’s Christmas comes after weeks of havoc caused by cyclonic storms and torrential rains, the spirit of the season, both in its religious and secular senses, will hopefully provide some solace for those still suffering and some optimism to everyone who is trying to uplift the country from its overflowing waterways and sliding slopes.

As the scale of devastation goes, no natural disaster likely will surpass the human fatalities that the 2004 Tsunami caused. But the spread and scale of this year’s cyclone destruction, especially the destruction of the island’s land-forms and its infrastructure assets, are, in my view, quite unprecedented. The scale of the disaster would finally seem to have sunk into the nation’s political skulls after a few weeks of cacophonic howlers – asking who knew and did what and when. The quest for instant solutions and the insistence that the government should somehow find them immediately are no longer as vehement and voluble as they were when they first emerged.

NBRO and Landslides

But there is understandable frustration and even fear all around, including among government ministers. To wit, the reported frustration of Agriculture Minister K.D. Lalkantha at the alleged inability of the National Building Research Organization (NBRO) to provide more specific directions in landslide warnings instead of issuing blanket ‘Level 3 Red Alerts’ covering whole administrative divisions in the Central Province, especially in the Kandy District. “We can’t relocate all 20 divisional secretariats” in the Kandy District, the Minister told the media a few weeks ago. His frustration is understandable, but expecting NBRO to provide political leaders with precise locations and certainty of landslides or no landslides is a tall ask and the task is fraught with many challenges.

In fairness to NBRO and its Engineers, their competence and their responses to the current calamity have been very impressive. It is not the fault of the NBRO that local disasters could not be prevented, and people could not be warned sufficiently in advance to evacuate and avoid being at the epicentre of landslides. The intensity of landslides this year is really a function of the intensity and persistence of rainfall this season, for the occurrence of landslides in Sri Lanka is very directly co-related to the amount of rainfall. The rainfall during this disaster season has been simply relentless.

Evacuation, the ready remedy, is easier said than socially and politically done. Minister Lal Kantha was exasperated at the prospect of evacuating whole divisional secretariats. This was after multiple landslides and the tragedies and disasters they caused. Imagine anybody seriously listening to NBRO’s pleas or warnings to evacuate before any drop of rainwater has fallen, not to mention a single landslide. Ignoring weather warnings is not peculiar to Sri Lanka, but a universal trait of social inertia.

I just lauded NBRO’s competence and expertise. That is because of the excellent database the NBRO professionals have compiled, delineating landslide zones and demarcating them based on their vulnerability for slope failure. They have also identified the main factors causing landslides, undertaken slope stabilization measures where feasible, and developed preventative and mitigative measures to deal with landslide occurrences.

The NBRO has been around since the 1980s, when its pioneers supplemented the work of Prof. Thurairajah at Peradeniya E’Fac in studying the Hantana hill slopes where the NHDA was undertaking a large housing scheme. As someone who was involved in the Hantana project, I have often thought that the initiation of the NBRO could be deemed one of the positive legacies of then Housing Ministry Secretary R. Paskaralingam.

Be that as it may, the NBRO it has been tracking and analyzing landslides in Sri Lanka for nearly three decades, and would seem to have come of age in landslides expertise with its work following 2016 Aranayake Landslide Disaster in the Kegalle District. Technically, the Aranayake disaster is a remarkable phenomenon and it is known as a “rain-induced rapid long-travelling landslide” (RRLL). In Kegalle the 2016 RRLL carried “a fluidized landslide mass over a distance of 2 km” and caused the death of 125 people. International technical collaboration following the disaster produced significant research work and the start of a five-year research project (from 2020) in partnership with the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL). The main purpose of the project is to improve on the early warning systems that NBRO has been developing and using since 2007.

Sri Lankan landslides are rain induced and occur in hilly and mountainous areas where there is rapid weathering of rock into surface soil deposits. Landslide locations are invariably in the wet zone of the country, in 13 districts, in six provinces (viz., the Central, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Northwestern, Western and Southern, provinces). The Figure below (from NBRO’s literature) shows the number of landslides and fatalities every year between 2003 and 2021.

Based on the graphics shown, there would have been about 5,000 landslides and slope failures with nearly 1,000 deaths over 19 years between 2003 and 2021. Every year there was some landslide or slope failure activity. One notable feature is that there have been more deaths with fewer landslides and vice-versa in particular years. In 2018, there were no deaths when the highest number (1,250) of landslides and slope failures occurred that year. Although the largest number in an year, the landslides in 2018 could have been minor and occurred in unpopulated areas. The reasons for more deaths in, say, 2016 (150) or 2017 (250+), could be their location, population density and the severity of specific landslides.

NBRO’s landslide early warning system is based on three components: (1) Predicting rainfall intensity and monitoring water pressure build up in landslide areas; (2) Monitoring and observing signs of soil movement and slope instability in vulnerable areas; and (3) Communicating landslide risk level and appropriate warning to civil authorities and the local public. The general warnings to Watch (Yellow), be Alert (Brown), or Evacuate (Red) are respectively based on the anticipated rainfall intensities, viz., 75 mm/day, 100 mm/day; and 150 mm/day or 100 mm/hr. My understanding is that over the years, NBRO has established its local presence in vulnerable areas to better communicate with the local population the risk levels and timely action.

Besides Landslides

This year, the rain has been relentless with short-term intensities often exceeding the once per 100-year rainfall. This is now a fact of life in the era of climate change. Added to this was cyclone Ditwah and its unique meteorology and trajectory – from south to north rather than northeast to southwest. The cyclone started with a disturbance southwest of Sri Lanka in the Arabian Sea, traversed around the southern coast from west to east to southeast in the Bay of Bengal, and then cut a wide swath from south to north through the entire easterly half of the island. The origin and the trajectory of the cyclone are also attributed to climate change and changes in the Arabian Sea. The upshot again is unpredictability.

Besides landslides, the rainfall this season has inundated and impacted practically every watershed in the country, literally sweeping away roads, bridges, tanks, canals, and small dams in their hundreds or several hundreds. The longitudinal sinking of the Colombo-Kandy Road in the Kadugannawa area seems quite unparalleled and this may not be the only location that such a shearing may have occurred. The damages are so extensive and it is beyond Sri Lanka’s capacity, and the single-term capacity of any government, to undertake systematic rebuilding of the damaged and washed-off infrastructure.

The government has its work cutout at least in three areas of immediate restoration and long term prevention. On landslides warning, it would seem NBRO has the technical capacity to do what it needs to do, and what seems to be missing is a system of multi-pronged and continuous engagement between the technical experts, on the one hand, and the political and administrative powers as well as local population and institutions, on the other. Such an arrangement is warranted because the landslide problem is severe, significant and it not going to go away now or ever.

Such an engagement will also provide for the technical awareness of the problem, its mitigation and the prevention of serious fallouts. A restructuring could start from the assignment of ministerial responsibilities, and giving NBRO experts constant presence at the highest level of decision making. The engagement should extend down the pyramid to involve every level of administration, including schools and civil society organizations at the local level.

As for external resources, several Asian countries, with India being the closest, are already engaged in multiple ways. It is up to the government to co-ordinate and deploy these friendly resources for maximum results. Sri Lanka is already teamed with India for meteorological monitoring and forecasting, and with Japan for landslide research and studies. These collaborations will obviously continue but they should be focused to fill gaps in climate predictions, and to enhance local level monitoring and prevention of landslides.

To deal with the restoration of the damaged infrastructure in multiple watershed areas, the government may want to revisit the Accelerated Mahaweli Scheme for an approach to deal with the current crisis. The genesis and implementation of that scheme involved as many flaws as it produced benefits, but what might be relevant here is to approach the different countries who were involved in funding and building the different Mahaweli headworks and downstream projects. Australia, Britain, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, Sweden and Germany are some of the countries that were involved in the old Mahaweli projects. They could be approached for technical and financial assistance to restore the damaged infrastructure pieces in the respective watershed areas where these countries were involved.

by Rajan Philips ✍️

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