Towards a sustainable and secure energy future for Sri Lanka

by Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe
parajayasinghe@gmail.com

A new Dawn

It is everyone’s hope that we could at last be moving towards a new dawn of prosperity and a future of sustainable growth in all aspects of economy and social wellbeing.  With the President Anura Kumara Dissanayake leading the way.  This hope is most prevalent in the energy sector, which has remained in the clutches of the fossil fuel lobby. While the transport fuels still remain near 100% dependent on imported fossil fuels, energy sources used for the generation of electricity have shown some progress in gaining none dependence on such imports using indigenous sources of renewable energy. While the present contribution of only 12% of the total energy mix by electricity may not seem significant , what is more important is to recognise that electricity being the most desired and flexible form of energy for energy sector of energy demand , projects a future of near 100% electricity based energy sector, by the optimal utilisation of our bounty of nature.  Sri Lanka is blessed with renewable energy sources of magnitude which is far beyond the energy needs of the country, covering all sectors, many fold even with the projected growth over many decades,

This is even more significant is the fact that Sri Lanka has no indigenous fossil fuels, which makes it imperative that we utilise this   bounty to arrest the continual drain of the valuable foreign reserves, as fast as possible. The great fortune of advances in technologies in recent years enabling the development of such renewable energy without delay should therefore take the highest priority of the new government.

The recent presidential election has brought to the sharp focus the urgency of this with the realisation that it is the present unwise dependence on imported sources of fossil fuel which is the primary reason for the fall of the previous government of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the false claims of energy security claimed by the last interim government’s  defeat.

The more pragmatic Vision of the New Government

The established policy of reaching a target of 70% contribution of renewable energy for electricity generation by year 2030 have been confirmed by all presidential candidates, as well as the eventual achievement of status of zero emissions by 2050. with even more focus by the NPP.

Under these circumstances, it is topical to discuss the way forward and the path that President Anura Kumara Dissanayake would choose in arriving at these targets, particularly  since the portfolio of Energy is listed under his purview, which we hope he would retain after the parliamentary elections and the formation of the new cabinet of ministers.

It is therefore relevant to be reminded of the references made in the Presidential Manifesto on the energy sector., which has laid much emphasis and recognition of the bountiful renewable energy resources of Sri Lanka.  The much wider relevance and the potential of such resources to play a major role in the economy beyond mere supply of energy to the other sectors of energy, is for the first time has been recognised by the policy makers.  The section title of the Manifesto on energy itself highlights this recognition: 3.10 A Secured Energy Centre – A sustainable Revenue Resource”

This is further elaborated by the item listed as the “Principles”

• Energy as an essential national service
• Sustainable and secure energy supply
• Energy Economy as a source of foreign exchange

While agreeing wholeheartedly to these principles as the basis for a future energy policy we would like to propose few more inalienable principles or policy imperatives to this list

• The nation’s energy resources belong to the people and the benefits of their utilisation must primarily flow to the people.
• It is no longer true that the energy sector development needs to be the purview of the large-scale entrepreneurs, either in the state or private sector, requiring very large capital investments, nor is there a need for centralised large power plants remote from load centers.
• Under no circumstances should we pay Dollars for our own RE resources.
• National Security is closely linked to national Energy Security. This can be guaranteed only by ensuring that the energy industry remains in control of the national entities both public and private.
• The main consumers of energy are electricity and transport fuels. It is imperative that any energy policy should consider at least these two in conjunction and concurrently.
• The facility of creating “Prosumers” can be the means by which the low-end consumers can be rescued from the trap of eternal poverty in spite of the many forms of state handouts which over the years have proven futile in poverty alleviation.

  The Specific Activities Proposed

The proposed activities in the manifesto support the above principles and if implemented with courage and conviction with combined commitment of all the related agencies, unlike the present practice of totally disharmonious and opposing actions, the success of achieving the targets can be guaranteed.

The important message that should be brought to the attention of The President is the need to ensure no action or policy be permitted from now on that would hinder the progress or form barriers in achieving these goals.  A distinct change in the attitude of the state agencies and officials is required. Hitherto that has been totally lacking with even the target of achieving the 70% RE goal not being assigned to any agency.

This is due to the unfortunate situation prevailing in the state sector of there being no sense of accountability, either mandatorily or voluntarily.  The most essential and urgent change needed is to mandate the task of achieving the stated goals to particular officials in the primary agency identified as the most appropriate when many agencies are responsible. Such a mandate must flow from the Chairman downwards with measurable Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) assigned with time targets. This is most easily done in the electricity sector immediately and the transport and other sectors of energy usage to follow without delay.

The present government has brought in a number of new appointees to head the key agencies in the energy sector. We propose that these personnel inconsideration of their past record of knowledge and experience (unlike in the past when appointments were given to friends and relatives only irrespective of their suitability) be given strict instructions with the responsibilities for achievement of set targets and to pass down such responsibilities to their staff.  Gaining the support and cooperation of other related agencies and overcoming any barriers should be strictly their responsibility.

While the transport sector without any form of future vision or programmes working in total ignorance of the major changes happening in the world would  be  difficult to be brought to this form of sustainable and future proof status, the already established and adopted policies in the Electricity Sector and the technological advances made even in Sri Lanka provides the base line on which such time based targets can be assigned.

The current target of 70% renewable energy based power generation by 2030 has proven to be quite achievable and non-challenging based on recent experiences.  In fact, this target was surpassed in some days during the latter months of 2023 as shown below. (See graph)

• The first KPI to be issued is therefore a directive to the Ceylon Electricity Board to develop a time based programme with annual targets commencing now towards progressively enhancing this RE contribution of 70% minimum by 2030. CEB must be held responsible for the achievement, for which of course they would need to get the support and assistance of the private sector developers.  With the co-operation and commitment of their own staff. and facilitation the “Prosumers” themselves would reach the expected 5000 MW well before the target year 2030. (The target of 2000 MW in five years as stated is well below the potential of the local Solar Industry)
• A further commitment made by the new government is to lower the cost of electricity to the consumers. It is obvious that this could only be achieved through the rapid expansion of the contribution by the renewable energy based generation, which is now universally accepted and proven by the records of the CEB itself.  Towards this task another action point in the NPP manifesto can be cited as the next KPI to be issued to the CEB. “Directing the currently oil-based electricity generation towards low-cost renewable solar and wind sources” This feasibility is illustrated below.
• The objective of lowering the cost of generation and thereby the consumer tariff would certainly not be achieved by the recent cabinet decision to reduce the Feed in Tariff for the Solar Rooftop PV, which fortunately has not been approved by the PUCSL. Each unit of Solar PV added would reduce the equivalent unit generated using oil costing at least Rs 63.00 as per data below. (See Table)

The potential saving of Rs 113.65 Billion annually could provide the means of lowering the consumer tariff by Rs 7.5 per unit on average.

Should we pursue LNG relevant anymore?

About five years ago Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) was very much in discussion as a clean fuel and a possible intermediate solution to eventually eliminate the use of Coal and Oil for power generation. Perhaps under the prevailing circumstances then, when the Renewable Energy Options such as Solar and Wind had not gained the favorable status, both of technical acceptance and financial viability, this consideration may have been correct and timely. However, a much-detailed analysis with wide stakeholder consultation is required at present before pursuing this option.

However, Sri Lanka not having any land based Natural Gas, and the challenging issue of the infrastructure required for the utilization of imported LNG for economic use needed to be evaluated in depth. This still remains unresolved.  At the same time being typical of the disjointed decision-making process in Sri Lanka, the tender for the development of a 350 MW LNG power plant to operate on nonexistent LNG was awarded and the plant is nearly complete. It is reported that even in Australia with its own Natural Gas resource the cost of NG based power is reported to be exorbitant.

Under these circumstances, although listed in the Activities in the Manifesto, we propose that this issue requires a much deeper and coherent analysis and evaluation before any concrete steps are taken. It is our opinion that Sri Lanka no longer needs any imported LNG.

If we are fortunate to get funding to develop our Mannar resource viability of which is now established, it must be considered as the means of achieving the principle of v Energy Economy as a source of foreign exchange But under no circumstances should we build any more LNG based power plants as listed in the current Long-Term Generation Plant and still being promoted by some with their tunnel vision.

Conclusion

It is quite obvious that Sri Lanka is at the threshold of change in all aspects. This is most essential and urgent in the Energy Sector which if handled properly would give Sri Lanka the much-needed window of opportunity for economic prosperity. It is most encouraging that the present government has clearly identified this opportunity.

This article attempts to highlight the need to be warned of many decades of vested interests by many parties, which has kept Sri Lanka over dependent on imported fossil fuels thus preventing the flow of such prosperity to the people. The danger also exists of such elements trying to propagate antiquated principles and themes, with the underlying objective of keeping Sri Lanka trapped in fossil fuels for obvious reasons.

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