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THE POST-WAR PERIOD AND INDEPENDENCE

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Continued from last week

NU’s Career Advances

In May of 1942, a month after the Japanese attack, NU was promoted to a higher post within the Department of Commerce and Industries. He was also seconded to serve as Deputy Commissioner in the Department of Commodity Purchase, where he was placed in charge of arranging the supply of commodities such as desiccated coconut and copra to the Food Ministry in Britain. (Interestingly, NU had selected “The Oil Seed Trade with Specific Reference to Copra” as his special subject when he applied for his M.Sc. (Econ.) degree. Correspondence from his Personal Files show that, while NU was studying at the LSE, Professor Paish, who was one of his professors, recommended NU to a London merchant dealing in edible oils, to carry out a survey of “The Trade in Edible Oils… from Production, through Importation, Distribution and Marketing to Consumers’ Demand” (N.U. Jayawardena Personal Files).

In NU’s words:

As Deputy Commissioner of Commodity Purchase, it fell to my lot to plan out the organization of the department in the early stages, particularly in regard to the purchase schemes for copra, oil and plumbago. Later I was engaged in reorganizing the operative methods of the Department and, in this connection, compiled a comprehensive code of departmental instructions.

He listed the activities of the Department of Commodity Purchase, “which was run on business lines,” and described the strength of the staff:

[There were] 11 Staff Officers including a full-time Commissioner and myself as Deputy, a store personnel of 112, and a clerical establishment of 117, while the annual turnover of the transactions of the Department exceeds Rs. 50 million. (N.U. Jayawardena Personal Files)

The Department of Commodity Purchase was based in the Bristol Hotel, which was located opposite the Cargill’s store, in the Colombo Fort. The Director of the Department was L.J.B. Turner, for whom NU had earlier worked at the Registrar General’s Office. In his rapid career ascent, NU would begin to catch up with and overtake persons for whom he had worked earlier. In 1946, he was appointed Acting Commissioner of War Risks Insurance to fill in for F. Leach, who had left the country. One may recall that it was F. Leach who had tried to appoint a Mudaliyar’s son over NU when he had applied for his first government job as a junior clerk of the District Road Committee in Hambantota (see Chapter 5).

Another Career Landmark

In June of 1946, NU was seconded to serve in the newly created post of Additional Controller of Finance and Supplies (Economics), in addition to the other posts he held. This was the first posting in the Treasury Department and it would have brought him much satisfaction, as the Treasury Department was considered to be the pinnacle of the civil service. Such a swift ascent was bound to create problems. The ‘mandarins’ of the Civil Service did not take kindly to the promotions which NU, the outsider, was given by the time he was 38, and to the multiple posts he held. Their resentment was all the more because the salary he received from these combined posts was ‘somewhat in excess of two Officers of State, one of whom was [his] superior authority’ (N.U. Jayawardena, 11 May 1987, p.3).

NU had risen on proven merit, rather than by passing the Civil Service examination, and as head of four separate departments, he received an income equal to a Class 1, Grade II official of the Ceylon Civil Service – even though he was not a member. This led the

Ceylon Civil Service Association to lodge a strong protest against NU. ( There is a letter addressed to NU in his Personal Files, dated 18 November 1946, in which the Chief Secretary wrote to inform him of his provisional appointment, to act “in addition to your own duties… as Additional Commissioner, Commodity Purchase, and Commissioner, War Risks Insurance, pending receipt of the advice of the Public Services Commission” (emphasis added). In this connection, NU described in detail a revealing episode involving the Acting Financial Secretary, C.E. Jones, which clearly exemplifies the phenomenon of the dethroning of the old guard elite – the “cultivated gentlemen” – by specialist technocrats who succeeded on merit (mentioned in the previous chapter):

There was, before [the Acting Financial Secretary] a rather bulky file containing dispatches from the Secretary of State on a highly complex subject of Economic Relations, which it fell to my lot to study, analyse and present in the form of a comprehensive report to… the Governor… to be signed by the Financial Secretary, together with a lengthy dispatch to the Secretary of State. [This was] a subject he did not know, [and] on which he could rely without reservation on my analysis and presentation. He then handed them the file with the request that if they or their colleagues felt they could do a better job than I had done, they were free to identify such a person to take over my position and other positions I held, and also receive the aggregate emoluments I was paid. (Apart from being dependent on NU to get through his work, it is interesting to speculate whether C.E. Jones’ sympathies with NU may have been strengthened due to the fact that Jones, too, had graduated from the London University (BSc.), unlike many of the senior members of the Ceylon Civil Service who were mostly products of Cambridge and Oxfor (ibid)

Following this interview with Jones, the representatives of the Civil Service Association left NU – as he triumphantly termed it – “severely alone.” Whether he was disturbed or not by the episode, NU was not slow to see its moral. Though he noted that it spoke volumes for the Association’s sense of ‘fair play’ and ‘merit,’ it no doubt made NU aware of the pitfalls and hazards of holding important positions in public life. Chapter 10 can read online on https://island.lk/nu-at-the-london-school-of-economics/

In regard to finance, my government intends to seek expert advice with regard to changes in our financial structure which may be necessitated by the transition from a colonial to a free, national economy.

(Throne Speech, Sir Henry Monck-Mason Moore, Governor, 25 Nov. 1947)

Slaughter tapping a rubber tree

The post-war period presented the country with a series of further economic hardships and challenges. The burdens of inflation, shortages of food and other imported items, as well as rationing and a series of controls, increased in the war’s aftermath. The State continued to play an interventionist role in the market, stepping up its regulatory controls, due to the continuing shortages of essential goods and the scarcity of exchange with which to buy these goods. Stanley Wickramaratne has aptly described, the “plethora of controls” regulating the supply of goods and services, and in general the free mobility of its citizens during and after the Second World War, which

… were departmentalized by the State and named Food Control, Textile Control, Rubber Control, Tea Control, Milk Food Control, Petrol Control, Poonac Control, Price Control and Import-Export and Exchange Control…

[After] Independence these control mechanisms gradually ceased to function except the last two mentioned. (Wickramaratne, 2002)

Sri Lanka was adversely impacted by factors associated with the worldwide economic and physical destruction caused by the war and had to hold its own in a world reeling from economic breakdown. Competing for access to markets and limited resources from a weak position, Sri Lanka had few options and was held hostage to the vagaries of the international market. As a small nation with an undiversified economy, it relied heavily on the export of a few agricultural commodities – primarily tea and rubber – for a large part of its revenue. (According to Das Gupta (1949, p.9), Sri Lanka produced “only a few things, but produces them almost entirely for export,” and derived about 60% of

its income from agricultural exports, producing only a quarter to a third of its total rice requirements.) Furthermore, it was not self-sufficient in the production of essential goods and was disadvantaged by an undeveloped banking system and capital market, as well as the lack of an industrial base. Thus, Sri Lanka had next to no recourse to internal financing that could help provide a financial cushion to tide over this period, nor the means to provide the investment capital to step up local production of essential goods to replace costly imports.

There was much that needed to be worked out and negotiated, and new institutions had to be set up to help meet the needs of the soon-to-be independent Sri Lanka and the challenges of the evolving post-war economic order. In addition, financial and trade arrangements had to be planned to bridge the immediate needs of the nation. After independence, Sri Lanka would be faced with the additional challenge of asserting itself as an independent sovereign nation.

NU described his work during this period of transition as a time when he “performed the functions of the principal financial and economic adviser to the Ceylon Government” (N.U. Jayawardena Personal Files). Over the four-year period, which stretched from 1946 to 1950, NU attended and assisted in several international conferences and negotiations. On the eve of national independence, NU would rise from his position as Controller of Finance and Supplies (Economics) to become both Controller of Exchange and Controller of Imports and Exports, and would set up the machinery for the operations of exchange control.

Declining Terms of Trade

By the war’s end, Sri Lanka had managed to accumulate substantial foreign-exchange surpluses, which were largely due to increased earnings from stepped-up rubber production, a reduction in imports during wartime as well as payments for basing the British South East Asia Command in Sri Lanka. However, as pointed out by Das Gupta (1949, p.31), these surpluses were “a measure not so much of prosperity but of privation,” since during the war, these could not be utilized as desired to purchase essential imports, and consumption had to be curtailed at great hardship to the population. Furthermore, following the war, these hard-earned savings actually lost value in real terms as the prices of imports rose sharply and the rise in the export price of rubber – Sri Lanka’s major export – did not keep pace. The restoration of Malaysian and Indonesian rubber stocks to the world market, and consequent increase in supply, had a somewhat dampening effect on the world price of rubber.

Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange surpluses were quickly depleted, even though consumption continued to be restricted by the government to meet this dilemma. Ironically, by the year 1947, although imports were reduced to about the same level they had been in 1938, the economy experienced a balance-of-payments crisis, owing to a decline in the terms of trade. The case of rice imports starkly illustrates the economic dilemma Sri Lanka faced. According to Das Gupta, in 1947, Sri Lanka imported half the quantity of rice it had in 1938, but the bill for this was about two and a half times what it had been in 1938 (ibid, pp.90-91).

Workers loading dry goods in a Colombo warehouse

NU’s Link with Oliver Goonetilleke

In 1945, Oliver Goonetilleke (OEG) was appointed to the prestigious post of Financial Secretary – one of the three Officers of State – as the first (and last) Sri Lankan to hold this position. NU would now work more closely with him. In 1946, on one of his first high-level visits abroad, NU accompanied OEG to the UK to assist him in the negotiations with the British government on “post-war financial issues affecting Sri Lanka” (Ceylon Civil List, 1950, p.86). According to Jeffries, during this period one of the chief areas of negotiation involved “the continual struggle to secure an economic price for Ceylon rubber” (1969, p.106). When Indonesia and Malaysia fell under Japanese control during the war, both Britain and its allies relied heavily on Sri Lanka to step up production to meet the shortfall in this critical war material. At the war’s end, Sri Lanka’s rubber yields were adversely affected due to the wartime “slaughtertapping” (over-tapping) of its rubber trees. ( Das Gupta stated that at least one-quarter of all the rubber trees in Sri Lanka had been slaughter-tapped during the war.) According to Jeffries:

The [Sri Lankan rubber] industry had already sacrificed its interest in order that the war might be won, but now Ceylon was being expected to compete on equal terms in the market with Malaya and Indonesia whose plantations were in full production after the enforced wartime rest. (Jeffries, 1969, p.106) ( Sri Lanka’s strong reliance on rubber for its revenue continued into the early 1950s. In 1952 R.G. Senanayake, who was Minister of Trade and Commerce, negotiated a Rubber-Rice Pact with the People’s Republic of China, in which the former agreed to purchase Sri Lanka’s entire annual output of rubber for five years at a premium, in exchange for rice supplied at a price well below the world market price (see de Silva & Wriggins, 1988, pp.269-71).)

OEG, who had a reputation as an astute negotiator, would have reminded the British government of Sri Lanka’s loyal support and sacrifices made during the war and of Britain’s moral obligation towards Sri Lanka. His skills of persuasion were legendary both in Sri Lanka and in Britain. A British government official was said to have woefully remarked that, “after shaking hands with him, it was advisable to check that all one’s fingers were there” (ibid, p.82). OEG once described himself as “no chicken in either strategy or in tactics” (ibid, p.74); and NU characterized him as someone who was “uncommonly intelligent,” and “highly imaginative… astute to the point of being uncanny, and an able negotiator” (quoted in de Zoysa manuscript, p.15).

Negotiations in London took place over a period of three and a half months from the end of July to mid-November 1946. An interesting side note to this episode is that during this time, NU visited his professors at the London School of Economics to inquire into the possibilities of resuming studies for his interrupted M.Sc. degree. He apparently had not abandoned hopes of completing his studies for a postgraduate degree. Although records show that his professors were amenable to this proposition, NU’s career again overtook him and he never completed this degree (LSE Student Records on N.U. Jayawardena).

Independence

Earlier in 1942, when the British government entered into discussions with India on the question of its independence, the Sri Lankan leadership also began to place pressure on the British regarding the same issue. According to Charles Jeffries, the Civil Defence Department

became the regular meeting place for “the triumvirate” of D.S. Senanayake, Oliver Goonetilleke and Ivor Jennings, who planned and worked out the negotiating points and strategies that would be undertaken towards this goal (Jeffries, pp.68-69). By 1943, this group had managed to wrest preliminary terms of agreement from the colonial government. In December 1944, a Commission composed of Lord Soulbury, Sir Frederick Rees and Frederick Burrows visited the island, and the resulting Soulbury Constitution (1947) introduced to the country a parliamentary government with a cabinet system for the first time. Elections were held under this constitution in August and September 1947, and the newly founded United National Party (UNP) formed the government. Its leader, D.S. Senanayake became the first Prime Minister of Sri Lanka and J.R. Jayewardene (JR) was appointed Finance Minister.

Working with J.R. Jayewardene

NU worked with JR in various official capacities over a period of nearly six years. He first came to know JR in 1946, when NU was appointed, along with his colleague K. Williams, to the Treasury in the newly created positions of Controller of Finance and Supply (Economics) – a year before JR assumed office as Finance Minister. NU was to work for him successively in his capacities as Controller of Exchange, Deputy Governor and Governor of the Central Bank.

NU found JR to be an unassuming and courteous Minister, who was never “intellectually stubborn or arrogant,” and who possessed a “fine sense of humour.” He found him “more ready to learn than to talk” and felt he “brought to bear a trained… [and] legal mind”

(N.U. Jayawardena, c.1985, p.59). According to NU:

JR wanted facts and their analysis, but would not accept any rendering of analysis unless he was convinced of its validity… He was thus more concerned with the substance and less with the detail… JR was quick to perceive and was not slow to decide, which he did with deliberation but once he had decided he remained unshakeable unless new facts or new situations emerged to justify the review of decisions taken. (ibid)

For NU, working for JR was “both a demanding duty and an intellectual pleasure” (ibid). He found in JR an eagerness to learn – a quality which NU himself valued and shared. JR, a lawyer by profession, felt he needed a grounding in economics. NU worked closely

with him, explaining the economic realities to the Minister – as did Professor B.B. Das Gupta of the Economics Department of the University, whom JR consulted on economic issues. The new Finance Minister had to absorb his lessons quickly, as he had to contend with several technically complex issues and crises during this period, including the international negotiations that led to two Sterling Assets Agreements with the UK, setting up the exchange control machinery required to ensure the success of these agreements, as well as laying the groundwork for the creation of a Central Bank. NU would be centrally involved in all of these areas.

Controller of Exchange

NU was appointed Controller of Exchange in April 1947. This was a prestigious post in which he was the implementer of some “purely central banking functions,” including “the determination of foreign exchange rates, control of foreign exchange holdings of commercial banks, and arrangements for forward cover” (N.U. Jayawardena, 1950, p.11). Exchange control originally came into operation in Sri Lanka upon the outbreak of war in Europe in September 1939, and was initially restricted to financial transactions in the non-sterling area. NU started out with a “skeleton staff” of nine members, working from an office on the first floor of the De Mel Building on Chatham Street (N.U. Jayawardena, 1949, p.29).

Near the end of 1947, Sri Lanka suffered a severe drain on its “overseas balances,” which was also causing “serious financial difficulties” to Britain. This crisis resulted in the government’s tentative decision to extend exchange control to include the sterling area – in other words, it would now cover “all financial transactions between Ceylon and the outside world” (ibid, p.10; and N.U. Jayawardena, 1950, p.3). Before undertaking this step, NU was sent to spend a “short but useful period” at the Reserve Bank of India in Mumbai to study the exchange control operations of that institution.( . A couple of months earlier, in September 1947, India had already extended her controls to cover the sterling area, due to similar circumstances (N.U. Jayawardena, 1949, p.10). He later spent additional time studying the exchange control operations at the Bank of England to obtain further technical training. When exchange control was extended to cover the sterling areas in June 1948, NU was appointed full-time Controller of Exchange and relieved of his other duties to enable him to devote his full energies and attention to exchange control (ibid, p.12).

This extension of controls “multiplied the volume of work manifold,” demanding “a new orientation of policy on principles which bore little relationship to the practices pertaining to non-sterling area transactions” (The increased scale of operations can be put into perspective if one bears in mind that at that time, 60% of all imports and 70% of all exports were transacted with sterling-area countries (see de Silva & Wriggins, p.220).

Also, earlier, exchange control was limited to a few but not all countries in the non-sterling area, and these “transactions were mainly derived from instructions received from the Secretary of State for the Colonies” (N.U. Jayawardena, 1949, p.11). (ibid, p.11). With the introduction of extended controls, every transaction involving foreign trade or foreign remittances had to pass through the Exchange Control Department and therefore required close coordination with other government departments such as Customs, the Post Office, Import and Export Control, and Food Control. In addition, an advisory committee, which included the heads of the main banks such as the Bank of Ceylon and the Imperial Bank, was formed to give advice to the Controller.

A comprehensive manual was drawn up and distributed to banks and authorized exchange dealers as well. A large number of staff members had to be recruited to carry out the expanded operations, requiring the Department to locate to more spacious quarters on York Street. ( The extent and rate of increase in staff numbers gives some indication of the onerous nature of exchange control operations. After relocating to York Street, by the end of 1948, a mere one and a half years after NU took over as Exchange Controller, the staff would increase to 191 members. “Congested conditions” later necessitated a further move to more spacious quarters in Echelon Barracks, some time in 1950 (N.U. Jayawardena, 1949, p.32).

In spite of the recruitment of additional staff, NU noted that: “it was still necessary to work long hours at a stretch to keep the machinery of control working and to avoid delays and inconvenience to the… public.”

Another challenge during the first year of operations was to train the staff, who initially did not have the technical knowledge required to carry out these controls. According to NU, it was “to their credit that they overcame this handicap in a short time” (N.U. Jayawardena,

1949, p.11). In his Administrative Report for the year 1949, NU described the year as a “trying and strenuous year” for his staff. He proudly noted that it gave him “no little pleasure to record that the Department of Exchange Control has, on the whole, maintained a high

reputation… an achievement of which every member of the staff should justly be proud” (N.U. Jayawardena, 1950, p.22). NU described exchange control as “an irksome restriction,” however, noting that it was a necessity at that time to promote a “more equitable distribution of goods in short supply.” Nonetheless, NU’s firm belief in the superiority of the market mechanism clearly comes out in this report, when he speculates about alternatives to exchange control, asking whether its ends could not be better served by:

methods based on the alternative principle of regulating the demand for foreign currencies at a stable exchange rate through the price mechanism. This is undoubtedly a question with many implications, administrative, economic and financial… It… deserves close study… by everyone who naturally resents the irksome restrictions of control. (ibid, p. 23, emphasis added)

A Passion for Work

There was no cutting back on his working hours when NU reached the position of Controller of Exchange. As before, a twelve-hour workday was the rule – with eighteen hours not being unusual. His daughter Neiliya recalls how NU would often ask her mother to

bring her for a drive and to pick him up in office:

I remember my mother and myself going to the Exchange Controller’s office, and sitting in the car for an hour or more waiting for my father to finish work. But he always kept us waiting. His assistant would bring bundles and bundles of files when he finally came down and put them in the luggage boot. This was always after 7:30 or 8 p.m.

Neiliya recalls how at other times:

I would have my dinner and go with my mother and pick him up. I would be given an ice-cream cone on the way home. He would go home and have a shower, have dinner and sit with his files from about 10 p.m. and work until around 2 a.m. He would then get up at 5 a.m., work until 7.30 a.m. and we would see him at his desk on our way out to school.

To be continued

(Excerpted from N.U. JAYAWARDENA The first five decades)
By Kumari Jayawardena and Jennifer Moragoda ✍️


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Features

When floods strike: How nations keep food on the table

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2025/12/5

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Floods in Colombo. Image couretesy WB

Insights from global adaptation strategies

Sri Lanka has been heavily affected by floods, and extreme flooding is rapidly becoming one of the most disruptive climate hazards worldwide. The consequences extend far beyond damaged infrastructure and displaced communities. The food systems and supply networks are among the hardest hit. Floods disrupt food systems through multiple pathways. Croplands are submerged, livestock are lost, and soils become degraded due to erosion or sediment deposition. Infrastructural facilities like roads, bridges, retail shops, storage warehouses, and sales centres are damaged or rendered inaccessible. Without functioning food supply networks, even unaffected food-producing regions struggle to continue daily lives in such disasters. Poor households, particularly those dependent on farming or informal rural economies, face sharp food price increases and income loss, increasing vulnerability and food insecurity.

Many countries now recognie that traditional emergency responses alone are no longer enough. Instead, they are adopting a combination of short-term stabilisation measures and long-term strategies to strengthen food supply chains against recurrent floods. The most common immediate response is the provision of emergency food and cash assistance. Governments, the World Food Programme, and other humanitarian organisations often deliver food, ready-to-eat rations, livestock feed, and livelihood support to affected communities.

Alongside these immediate measures, some nations are implementing long-term strategic actions. These include technology- and data-driven approaches to improve flood preparedness. Early warning systems, using satellite data, hydrological models, and advanced weather forecasting, allow farmers and supply chain operators to prepare for potential disruptions. Digital platforms provide market intelligence, logistics updates, and risk notifications to producers, wholesalers, and transporters. This article highlights examples of such strategies from countries that experience frequent flooding.

China: Grain Reserves and Strategic Preparedness

China maintains a large strategic grain reserve system for rice, wheat, and maize; managed by NFSRA-National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration and Sinograin (China Grain Reserves Corporation (Sinograin Group), funded by the Chinese government, that underpins national food security and enables macro-control of markets during supply shocks. Moreover, improvements in supply chain digitization and hydrological monitoring, the country has strengthened its ability to maintain stable food availability during extreme weather events.

Bangladesh: Turning Vulnerability into Resilience

In recent years, Bangladesh has stood out as one of the world’s most flood-exposed countries, yet it has successfully turned vulnerability into adaptive resilience. Floating agriculture, flood-tolerant rice varieties, and community-run grain reserves now help stabilise food supplies when farmland is submerged. Investments in early-warning systems and river-basin management have further reduced crop losses and protected rural livelihoods.

Netherlands, Japan: High-Tech Models of Flood Resilience

The Netherlands offers a highly technical model. After catastrophic flooding in 1953, the country completely redesigned its water governance approach. Farmland is protected behind sea barriers, rivers are carefully controlled, and land-use zoning is adaptive. Vertical farming and climate-controlled greenhouses ensure year-round food production, even during extreme events. Japan provides another example of diversified flood resilience. Following repeated typhoon-induced floods, the country shifted toward protected agriculture, insurance-backed farming, and automated logistics systems. Cold storage networks and digital supply tracking ensure that food continues to reach consumers, even when roads are cut off. While these strategies require significant capital and investment, their gradual implementation provides substantial long-term benefits.

Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam: Reform in Response to Recurrent Floods

In contrast, Pakistan and Thailand illustrate both the consequences of climate vulnerability and the benefits of proactive reform. The 2022 floods in Pakistan submerged about one-third of the country, destroying crops and disrupting trade networks. In response, the country has placed greater emphasis on climate-resilient farming, water governance reforms, and satellite-based crop monitoring. Pakistan as well as India is promoting crop diversification and adjusting planting schedules to help farmers avoid the peak monsoon flood periods.

Thailand has invested in flood zoning and improved farm infrastructure that keep markets supplied even during severe flooding. Meanwhile, Indonesia and Vietnam are actively advancing flood-adapted land-use planning and climate-resilient agriculture. For instance, In Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, pilot projects integrate flood-risk mapping, adaptive cropping strategies, and ecosystem-based approaches to reduce vulnerability in agricultural and distribution areas. In Indonesia, government-supported initiatives and regional projects are strengthening flood-risk-informed spatial planning, adaptive farming practices, and community-based water management to improve resilience in flood-prone regions. (See Figure 1)

The Global Lesson: Resilience Requires Early Investment

The global evidence is clear: countries that invest early in climate-adaptive agriculture and resilient logistics are better able to feed their populations, even during extreme floods. Building a resilient future depends not only on how we grow food but also on how we protect, store, and transport it. Strengthening infrastructure is therefore central to stabilising food supply chains while maintaining food quality, even during prolonged disruptions. Resilient storage systems, regional grain reserves, efficient cold chains, improved farming infrastructure, and digital supply mapping help reduce panic buying, food waste, and price shocks after floods, while ensuring that production capacity remains secure.

Persistent Challenges

However, despite these advances, many flood-exposed countries still face significant challenges. Resources are often insufficient to upgrade infrastructure or support vulnerable rural populations. Institutional coordination across the agriculture, disaster management, transport, and environmental sectors remains weak. Moreover, the frequency and scale of climate-driven floods are exceeding the design limits of older disaster-planning frameworks. As a result, the gap between exposure and resilience continues to widen. These challenges are highly relevant to Sri Lanka as well and require deliberate, gradual efforts to phase them out.

The Role of International Trade and global markets

When domestic production falls in such situations, international trade serves as an important buffer. When domestic production is temporarily reduced, imports and regional trade flows can help stabilise food availability. Such examples are available from other countries. For instance, In October 2024, floods in Bangladesh reportedly destroyed about 1.1 million tonnes of rice. In response, the government moved to import large volumes of rice and allowed accelerated or private-sector imports of rice to stabilize supply and curb food price inflation. This demonstrates how, when domestic production fails, international trade/livestock/food imports (from trade partners) acted as a crucial buffer to ensure availability of staple food for the population. However, this approach relies on well-functioning global markets, strong diplomatic relationships, and adequate foreign exchange, making it less reliable for economically fragile nations. For example, importing frozen vegetables to Sri Lanka from other countries can help address supply shortages, but considerations such as affordability, proper storage and selling mechanisms, cooking guidance, and nutritional benefits are essential, especially when these foods are not widely familiar to local populations.

Marketing and Distribution Strategies during Floods

Ensuring that food reaches consumers during floods requires innovative marketing and distribution strategies that address both supply- and demand-side challenges. Short-term interventions often include direct cash or food transfers, mobile markets, and temporary distribution centres in areas where conventional marketplaces become inaccessible. Price stabilisation measures, such as temporary caps or subsidies on staple foods, help prevent sharp inflation and protect vulnerable households. Awareness campaigns also play a role by educating consumers on safe storage, cooking methods, and the nutritional value of unfamiliar imported items, helping sustain effective demand.

Some countries have integrated technology to support these efforts; in this regard, adaptive supply chain strategies are increasingly used. Digital platforms provide farmers, wholesalers, and retailers with real-time market information, logistics updates, and flood-risk alerts, enabling them to reroute deliveries or adjust production schedules. Diversified delivery routes, using alternative roads, river transport, drones, or mobile cold-storage units, have proven essential for maintaining the flow of perishable goods such as vegetables, dairy, and frozen products. A notable example is Japan, where automated logistics systems and advanced cold-storage networks help keep supermarkets stocked even during severe typhoon-induced flooding.

The Importance of Research, Coordination, and Long-Term Commitment

Global experience also shows that research and development, strong institutional coordination, and sustained national commitment are fundamental pillars of flood-resilient food systems. Countries that have successfully reduced the impacts of recurrent floods consistently invest in agricultural innovation, cross-sector collaboration, and long-term planning.

Awareness Leads to Preparedness

As the summary, global evidence shows that countries that act early, plan strategically, and invest in resilience can protect both people and food systems. As Sri Lanka considers long-term strategies for food security under climate change, learning from flood-affected nations can help guide policy, planning, and public understanding. Awareness is the first step which preparedness must follow. These international experiences offer valuable lessons on how to protect food systems through proactive planning and integrated actions.

(Premaratne (BSc, MPhil, LLB) isSenior Lecturer in Agricultural Economics Department of Agricultural Systems, Faculty of Agriculture, Rajarata University. Views are personal.)

Key References·

Cabinet Secretariat, Government of Japan, 2021. Fundamental Plan for National Resilience – Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries / Logistics & Food Supply Chains. Tokyo: Cabinet Secretariat.

· Delta Programme Commissioner, 2022. Delta Programme 2023 (English – Print Version). The Hague: Netherlands Delta Programme.

· Hasanuddin University, 2025. ‘Sustainable resilience in flood-prone rice farming: adaptive strategies and risk-sharing around Tempe Lake, Indonesia’, Sustainability. Available at: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/6/2456 [Accessed 3 December 2025].

· Mekong Urban Flood Resilience and Drainage Programme (TUEWAS), 2019–2021. Integrated urban flood and drainage planning for Mekong cities. TUEWAS / MRC initiative.

· Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, People’s Republic of China, 2025. ‘China’s summer grain procurement surpasses 50 mln tonnes’, English Ministry website, 4 July.

· National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration (China) 2024, ‘China purchases over 400 mln tonnes of grain in 2023’, GOV.cn, 9 January. Available at: https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202401/09/content_WS659d1020c6d0868f4e8e2e46.html

· Pakistan: 2022 Floods Response Plan, 2022. United Nations / Government of Pakistan, UN Digital Library.

· Shigemitsu, M. & Gray, E., 2021. ‘Building the resilience of Japan’s agricultural sector to typhoons and heavy rain’, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 159. Paris: OECD Publishing.

· UNDP & GCF, 2023. Enhancing Climate Resilience in Thailand through Effective Water Management and Sustainable Agriculture (E WMSA): Project Factsheet. UNDP, Bangkok.

· United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2025. ‘Rice Bank revives hope in flood hit hill tracts, Bangladesh’, UNDP, 19 June.

· World Bank, 2022. ‘Bangladesh: World Bank supports food security and higher incomes of farmers vulnerable to climate change’, World Bank press release, 15 March.

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Features

Can we forecast weather precisely?

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2025/12/5

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“Even the flap of a butterfly in one corner of the world could cause a cyclone in a distant location weeks later “Edward Lorenz - American mathematician and meteorologist.

Weather forecasts are useful. People attentively listen to them but complain that they go wrong or are not taken seriously. Forecasts today are more probabilistically reliable than decades ago. The advancement of atmospheric science, satellite imaging, radar maps and instantly updated databases has improved the art of predicting weather.

Yet can we predict weather patterns precisely? A branch of mathematics known as chaos theory says that weather can never be foretold with certainty.

The classical mechanics of Issac Newton governing the motion of all forms of matter, solid, liquid or gaseous, is a deterministic theory. If the initial conditions are known, the behaviour of the system at later instants of time can be precisely predicted. Based on this theory, occurrences of solar eclipses a century later have been predicted to an accuracy of minutes and seconds.

The thinking that the mechanical behaviour of systems in nature could always be accurately predicted based on their state at a previous instant of time was shaken by the work of the genius French Mathematician Henri Poincare (1864- 1902).

Eclipses are predicted with pinpoint accuracy based on analysis of a two-body system (Earth- Moon) governed by Newton’s laws. Poincare found that the equivalent problem of three astronomical bodies cannot be solved exactly – sometimes even the slightest variation of an initial condition yields a drastically different solution.

A profound conclusion was that the behaviour of physical systems governed by deterministic laws does not always allow practically meaningful predictions because even a minute unaccountable change of parameters leads to completely different results.

Until recent times, physicists overlooked Poincare’s work and continued to believe that the determinism of the laws of classical physics would allow them to analyse complex problems and derive future happenings, provided necessary computations are facilitated. When computers became available, the meteorologists conducted simulations aiming for accurate weather forecasting. The American mathematician Edward Lorenz, who turned into a reputed meteorologist, carried out such studies in the early 1960s, arrived at an unexpected result. His equations describing atmospheric dynamics demonstrated a strange behaviour. He found that even a minute change (even one part in a million) in initial parameters leads to a completely different weather pattern in the atmosphere. Lorenz announced his finding saying, A flap of a butterfly wing in one corner of the world could cause a cyclone in a far distant location weeks later! Lorenz’s work opened the way for the development branch of mathematics referred to as chaos theory – an expansion of the idea first disclosed by Henri Poincare.

We understand the dynamics of a cyclone as a giant whirlpool in the atmosphere, how it evolves and the conditions favourable for their origination. They are created as unpredictable thermodynamically favourable relaxation of instabilities in the atmosphere. The fundamental limitations dictated by chaos theory forbid accurate forecasting of the time and point of its appearance and the intensity. Once a cyclone forms, it can be tracked and the path of movement can be grossly ascertained by frequent observations. However, absolutely certain predictions are impossible.

A peculiarity of weather is that the chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics does not permit ‘long – term’ forecasting with a high degree of certainty. The ‘long-term’ in this context, depending on situation, could be hours, days or weeks. Nonetheless, weather forecasts are invaluable for preparedness and avoiding unlikely, unfortunate events that might befall. A massive reaction to every unlikely event envisaged is also not warranted. Such an attitude leads to social chaos. The society far more complex than weather is heavily susceptible to chaotic phenomena.

by Prof. Kirthi Tennakone (ktenna@yahoo.co.uk)

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Features

When the Waters Rise: Floods, Fear and the ancient survivors of Sri Lanka

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2025/12/5

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A fresh water tank as a Mugger habitat (Photo- Anslem de Silva)

The water came quietly at first, a steady rise along the riverbanks, familiar to communities who have lived beside Sri Lanka’s great waterways for generations. But within hours, these same rivers had swollen into raging, unpredictable forces. The Kelani Ganga overflowed. The Nilwala broke its margins. The Bentara, Kalu, and Mahaweli formed churning, chocolate-brown channels cutting through thousands of homes.

When the floods finally began to recede, villagers emerged to assess the damage, only to be confronted by another challenge: crocodiles. From Panadura’s back lanes to the suburbs of Colombo, and from the lagoons around Kalutara to the paddy fields of the dry zone, reports poured in of crocodiles resting on bunds, climbing over fences, or drifting silently into garden wells.

For many, these encounters were terrifying. But to Sri Lanka’s top herpetologists, the message was clear: this is what happens when climate extremes collide with shrinking habitats.

“Crocodiles are not invading us … we are invading floodplains”

Sri Lanka’s foremost crocodile expert, Dr. Anslem de Silva, Regional Chairman for South Asia and Iran of the IUCN/SSC Crocodile Specialist Group, has been studying crocodiles for over half a century. His warning is blunt.

“When rivers turn into violent torrents, crocodiles simply seek safety,” he says. “They avoid fast-moving water the same way humans do. During floods, they climb onto land or move into calm backwaters. People must understand this behaviour is natural, not aggressive.”

In the past week alone, Saltwater crocodiles have been sighted entering the Wellawatte Canal, drifting into the Panadura estuary, and appearing unexpectedly along Bolgoda Lake.

“Saltwater crocodiles often get washed out to sea during big floods,” Dr. de Silva explains. “Once the current weakens, they re-enter through the nearest lagoon or canal system. With rapid urbanisation along these waterways, these interactions are now far more visible.”

This clash between wildlife instinct and human expansion forms the backdrop of a crisis now unfolding across the island.

A conflict centuries old—now reshaped by climate change

Sri Lanka’s relationship with crocodiles is older than most of its kingdoms. The Cūḷavaṃsa describes armies halted by “flesh-eating crocodiles.” Ancient medical texts explain crocodile bite treatments. Fishermen and farmers around the Nilwala, Walawe, Maduganga, Batticaloa Lagoon, and Kalu Ganga have long accepted kimbula as part of their environment.

But the modern conflict has intensified dramatically.

A comprehensive countrywide survey by Dr. de Silva recorded 150 human–crocodile attacks, with 50 fatal, between 2008 and 2010. Over 52 percent occurred when people were bathing, and 83 percent of victims were men engaged in routine activities—washing, fishing, or walking along shallow margins.

Researchers consistently emphasise: most attacks happen not because crocodiles are unpredictable, but because humans underestimate them.

Yet this year’s flooding has magnified risks in new ways.

“Floods change everything” — Dr. Nimal D. Rathnayake

Herpetologist Dr. Nimal Rathnayake says the recent deluge cannot be understood in isolation.

“Floodwaters temporarily expand the crocodile’s world,” he says. “Areas people consider safe—paddy boundaries, footpaths, canal edges, abandoned land—suddenly become waterways.”

Once the water retreats, displaced crocodiles may end up in surprising places.

“We’ve documented crocodiles stranded in garden wells, drainage channels, unused culverts and even construction pits. These are not animals trying to attack. They are animals trying to survive.”

According to him, the real crisis is not the crocodile—it is the loss of wetlands, the destruction of natural river buffers, and the pollution of river systems.

“When you fill a marsh, block a canal, or replace vegetation with concrete, you force wildlife into narrower corridors. During floods, these become conflict hotspots.”

Arm attacked by a crocodile (Photo – Anslem de Silva)

The leg is the part of the body most often targeted. (Photo – Anslem de Silva)

Past research by the Crocodile Specialist Group shows that more than 300 crocodiles have been killed in retaliation or for meat over the past decade. Such killings spike after major floods, when fear and misunderstanding are highest.

“Not monsters—ecosystem engineers” — Suranjan Karunaratne

On social media, flood-displaced crocodiles often go viral as “rogue beasts.” But conservationist Suranjan Karunaratne, also of the IUCN/SSC Crocodile Specialist Group, says such narratives are misleading.

“Crocodiles are apex predators shaped by millions of years of evolution,” he says. “They are shy, intelligent animals. The problem is predictable human behaviour.”

In countless attack investigations, Karunaratne and colleagues found a repeated pattern: the Three Sames—the same place, the same time, the same activity.

“People use the same bathing spot every single day. Crocodiles watch, learn, and plan. They hunt with extraordinary patience. When an attack occurs, it’s rarely random. It is the culmination of observation.”

He stresses that crocodiles are indispensable to healthy wetlands. They: control destructive catfish populations, recycle nutrients, clean carcasses and diseased fish, maintain biodiversity, create drought refuges through burrows used by amphibians and reptiles.

“Removing crocodiles destroys an entire chain of ecological services. They are not expendable.”

Karunaratne notes that after the civil conflict, Mugger populations in the north rebounded—proof that crocodiles recover when given space, solitude, and habitat.

Nimal D. Rathnayake

Floods expose a neglected truth: CEEs save lives—if maintained In high-risk communities, Crocodile Exclusion Enclosures (CEEs) are often the only physical barrier between people and crocodiles. Built along riverbanks or tanks, these enclosures allow families to bathe, wash, and collect water safely.

Yet Dr. de Silva recounts a tragic incident along the Nilwala River where a girl was killed inside a poorly maintained enclosure. A rusted iron panel had created a hole just large enough for a crocodile to enter.

“CEEs are a life-saving intervention,” he says. “But they must be maintained. A neglected enclosure is worse than none at all.”

Despite their proven effectiveness, many CEEs remain abandoned, broken or unused.

Climate change is reshaping crocodile behaviour—and ours

Sri Lanka’s floods are no longer “cycles” as described in folklore. They are increasingly intense, unpredictable and climate-driven. The warming atmosphere delivers heavier rainfall in short bursts. Deforested hillsides and filled wetlands cannot absorb it.

Rivers swell rapidly and empty violently.

Crocodiles respond as they have always done: by moving to calmer water, by climbing onto land, by using drainage channels, by shifting between lagoons and canals, by following the shape of the water.

But human expansion has filled, blocked, or polluted these escape routes.

What once were crocodile flood refuges—marshes, mangroves, oxbow wetlands and abandoned river channels—are now housing schemes, fisheries, roads, and dumpsites.

Garbage, sand mining and invasive species worsen the crisis

The research contained in the uploaded reports paints a grim but accurate picture. Crocodiles are increasingly seen around garbage dumps, where invasive plants and waste accumulate. Polluted water attracts fish, which in turn draw crocodiles.

Excessive sand mining in river mouths and salinity intrusion expose crocodile nesting habitats. In some areas, agricultural chemicals contaminate wetlands beyond their natural capacity to recover.

In Borupana Ela, a short study found 29 Saltwater crocodiles killed in fishing gear within just 37 days.

Such numbers suggest a structural crisis—not a series of accidents.

Unplanned translocations: a dangerous human mistake

For years, local authorities attempted to reduce conflict by capturing crocodiles and releasing them elsewhere. Experts say this was misguided.

“Most Saltwater crocodiles have homing instincts,” explains Karunaratne. “Australian studies show many return to their original site—even if released dozens of kilometres away.”

Over the past decade, at least 26 Saltwater crocodiles have been released into inland freshwater bodies—home to the Mugger crocodile. This disrupts natural distribution, increases competition, and creates new conflict zones.

Living with crocodiles: a national strategy long overdue

All three experts—Dr. de Silva, Dr. Rathnayake and Karunaratne—agree that Sri Lanka urgently needs a coordinated, national-level mitigation plan.

* Protect natural buffers

Replant mangroves, restore riverine forests, enforce river margin laws.

* Maintain CEEs

They must be inspected, repaired and used regularly.

* Public education

Villagers should learn crocodile behaviour just as they learn about monsoons and tides.

* End harmful translocations

Let crocodiles remain in their natural ranges.

* Improve waste management

Dumps attract crocodiles and invasive species.

* Incentivise community monitoring

Trained local volunteers can track sightings and alert authorities early.

* Integrate crocodile safety into disaster management

Flood briefings should include alerts on reptile movement.

“The floods will come again. Our response must change.”

As the island cleans up and rebuilds, the deeper lesson lies beneath the brown floodwaters. Crocodiles are not new to Sri Lanka—but the conditions we are creating are.

Rivers once buffered by mangroves now rush through concrete channels. Tanks once supporting Mugger populations are choked with invasive plants. Wetlands once absorbing floodwaters are now levelled for construction.

Crocodiles move because the water moves. And the water moves differently today.

Dr. Rathnayake puts it simply:”We cannot treat every flooded crocodile as a threat to be eliminated. These animals are displaced, stressed, and trying to survive.”

Dr. de Silva adds:”Saving humans and saving crocodiles are not competing goals. Both depend on understanding behaviour—ours and theirs.”

And in a closing reflection, Suranjan Karunaratne says:”Crocodiles have survived 250 million years, outliving dinosaurs. Whether they survive the next 50 years in Sri Lanka depends entirely on us.”

For now, as the waters recede and the scars of the floods remain, Sri Lanka faces a choice: coexist with the ancient guardians of its waterways, or push them into extinction through fear, misunderstanding and neglect.

By Ifham Nizam

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