Editorial
The galloping stock market
The booming Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) last week, after a two-year Covid-impelled silence, hosted its first news conference to share with the media what its chairman, Mr. Dumith Fernando, called a “fantastic story.” He was not exaggerating even slightly. The CSE’s performance last year was more that extraordinary by any standard with several historical highs established in all the indicators that matter. These included the heights reached by both the broader All Share Price Index (ASPI) and S&P 20 measuring the performance of the more liquid and better rated stock. There was also the daily average turnover, which even in highly depreciated rupee terms, that not long ago was computed in the millions is now running into billions. On top of that, there was the equity capital raising initiatives of companies seeking new listings on the trading boards of the exchange. Once upon a time, the CSE laboured might and main to persuade companies to list. But now, companies are jostling in the queue to obtain a quotation and these, without exception, have been several times over-subscribed on the opening day itself. Such successes mean millions, if not billions, of rupees of zero cost capital for newly listed companies.
The story goes on. There are those whispering or derisively labeling the current surge in the stock market as looking very much like something out of Ripley’s Believe It or Not – a “phantom market,” as the CSE boss put it, that is not supported by fundamentals. Such suspicion is inevitable in the context of a rapidly declining economy but with a paradoxically booming stock market running alongside. Fernando easily demolished that contention. There are many reasons, he said, for what the exchange calls the “quantum leap” in the market last year. Not the least among them is the plummeting deposit interest rates now down to single digits. People who once squirreled away their savings in banks or much higher interest paying but riskier finance company fixed deposits, have now found that the CSE has opened possibilities of much better returns in a scenario of plunging interest rates. No wonder then that a new class of investors, far removed from the business savvy high net worth persons who traditionally invested in what they judged as ‘good’ company shares, have become active in the stock market. The old guard looked for a steady dividend stream and capital appreciation in the longer term. Some of them did trade their shares making tidy, if not super, profits. But a large number held their stock over the longer term. The new investors are a different kettle of fish. They are looking for quick, often instant, trading profits, seldom investing in the longer term.
Today there are droves of what the market calls ‘retailers,’ – relatively small investors with little capital to play with, attracted to the CSE like moths to light. They see many possibilities to earn themselves some good money in the stock market and a record number of new investors, most of them 40-years or younger, have opened trading accounts. Today market players don’t have to visit share-broker offices and wrestle with all kinds of paper work to become active traders. They can do it all from their homes or offices armed with no more than one of those ubiquitous smart phones that many own today. Both brokers and the CSE itself are digtized and offer a modern trading platform nearly on par with what is available in more advanced markets.
Records established by the CSE last year includes the number of new listings up on the trading boards. Dumith Fernando said at the news briefing that last year, mainly in the latter part of 2021, there were as many as 13 initial public offerings. All of them attracted stunning investor interest being oversubscribed, sometimes several times over, on the opening day itself. Analysts confirm that many of these shares gained from their issue prices when trading commenced days later though there was at least one exception. But the general picture was instant profit for many small investors whose trading strategy is to take profit and invest funds realized in selling shares in new shares where they believe further profit is possible. They grumble about inadequate allocations due to the high demand for the shares on offer. But issuers generally tend to be fair to small investors.
Brokers say that the same share is often bought and sold, by a single punter, who will do multiple transactions in the course of a single trading day. Like betting on horses, gambling on a stock exchange is not without risk. But the fact that new players keep entering the market by the day suggests that the risk is much less than at the races and one player’s success attract many new players into the market. Where retailers are concerned, the herd instinct is very much in evidence with interest in a single counter drawing hordes of players into it, rightly or wrongly. The CSE website is full of notifications of the attention of listed companies being drawn into unusual trading activity in their shares. The inevitable response is that the company is unaware of any undisclosed price sensitive information that may have attracted unusual investor interest. Brokers say that low-priced shares may attract interest in a market where an upward trajectory as seen here was all too evident in recent weeks.
How long the carnival will last is anybody’s guess. But there are many putting their money where their gut instincts tell them that there’s more to be made.
Editorial
Sailing between Scylla and Charybdis
Friday 17th April, 2026
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is reported to have told his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, in a telephone conversation, that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a unanimous demand from the international community. He has stressed that Iran’s sovereignty, security, and legitimate rights should be respected as a littoral state of the Strait of Hormuz, but the freedom of navigation and safety through the strait should be ensured. One cannot but agree with the Chinese Foreign Minister.
A prolonged closure of the Hormuz Strait will only aggravate global economic woes and therefore be counterproductive. Tehran has a lot to gain on the diplomatic front; even some staunch allies of the US have taken exception to US-Israeli military aggression against Iran. It ought to take the shifting dynamics of the conflict into consideration and change its strategy accordingly.
The Chinese Foreign Minister has rightly noted that the current situation has reached a critical juncture between war and peace and the window of peace is opening. Iran must seize this opportunity. Araghchi has informed Wang Yi that his country is willing to continue to seek a rational and realistic solution through peaceful negotiations. It is hoped that the fragile ceasefire will be extended, and Pakistan will be able to bring the warring sides to the negotiating table again and help work out a compromise formula.
The US has imposed a naval blockade on Iran, targeting ships that enter or leave the Iranian ports, especially though the Hormuz Strait, through which about 20% of world oil supply passes. It has already turned back several ships that sought to enter Iran. Ironically, the US is doing what it has condemned Iran for—restricting international navigation through the Hormuz Strait. With its naval blockade, Washington is likely to incur more international opprobrium. It still has no way of forcing Iran to allow all ships to sail through the strategic chokepoint freely. However, the US naval blockade is likely to have a crippling impact on Iranian oil exports. With both Iran and the US using the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic lever, the countries that have nothing to do with the conflict have to sail between Scylla and Charybdis in the Gulf region.
Some experts are of the view that the China-Iran railway will help mitigate the impact of the US naval blockade and counter Washington’s efforts to isolate China and Iran, but this option could give rise to unforeseen logical and geopolitical issues.
About one-third of global seaborne trade in fertiliser reportedly passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf countries are key producers of nitrogen fertilisers. They also manufacture about 20% of phosphate fertilisers and 25% of global Sulphur. Urea prices have increased by 25% in the US, and the American Farm Bureau Federation has written to President Donald Trump, warning that production shocks will threaten national food security. The situation is far worse in the developing world. Sri Lanka is running out of its fertiliser stocks, and farmers are up in arms. Máximo Torero, the Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, has warned that the ongoing disruption to the Strait of Hormuz trade corridor has triggered “one of the most severe shocks to global commodity flows in recent years, with significant implications for food security, agricultural production, and global markets”.
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka is playing politics with its national energy conservation strategy amidst a global crisis while all other countries are strictly enforcing regulations in place to curtail fuel consumption. The suspension of the QR-based fuel quota system on account of the traditional New Year celebrations must have led to a huge increase in fuel consumption for non-essential purposes, as evident from the record revenue from the expressways. What should have been done was to increase the fuel quota instead of suspending the rationing system so that the public would be compelled to consume fuel sparingly during the festive season. The West Asian conflict is far from over, and the crisis management strategies must not be compromised.
Editorial
Emergency without emergency
It is said that when the people fear the government, there is tyranny, and when the government fears the people there is liberty. However, in a bid to retain its hold on power, a government that fears the people, tends to resort to draconian measures that are deleterious to civil liberties and democracy and could lead to tyranny. Among them is the misuse of Emergency regulations on some pretext or another. Sri Lanka has spent most of its post-Independence years under a state of Emergency.
The JVP-NPP government keeps on extending emergency regulations even though several months have passed since the landfall of Cyclone Ditwah, which warranted their imposition. It drew severe criticism for an initial delay in declaring a state of Emergency, which it now cannot do without for all intents and purposes. A staunch critic of Emergency and the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), the JVP/NPP came to power, promising to abolish the PTA and use the Emergency regulations responsibly, but it has reneged on that pledge.
On Thursday, Parliament voted to extend the State of Emergency under the Public Security Ordinance. There were 137 ayes and 27 nays. Members of the SJB, the ITAK, the NDF, the SLPP and Jaffna District Independent MP Dr. Ramanathan Archchuna opposed the government motion seeking the extension of Emergency. A vote was held after ITAK MP Shanakiyan Rasamanickam called for division. Worryingly, only 165 MPs, including the Speaker, were present in the 225-member House at the time of voting. Where were the other 60 MPs? Among the absentees were 21 government MPs and 33 Opposition members, according to media reports. At least the Opposition, which called for a division on the motion, should have ensured that all its MPs were present in the House. So much for the commitment of the MPs to their legislative duties and functions. They often haul state employees over the coals for dereliction of duty. First of all, they should put their own house in order.
A state of Emergency is no doubt a legitimate constitutional tool, but it must be used responsibly and sparingly strictly in response to genuine crises. Its extension for political reasons risks undermining democratic institutions, civil liberties and, most of all, public trust in democratic governance.
The deplorable practice of keeping a country under Emergency regulations for extended periods leads to the weakening of democratic culture, public distrust in government, corruption, lack of transparency, the debilitation of civil society and media freedom, an authoritarian drift, and economic and social uncertainty. The misuse of Emergency regulations could create a climate of instability, driving investors away at a time when Sri Lanka is emerging from its worst-ever economic crisis and desperately seeking foreign direct investment to build its forex reserves.
Political leaders currently in the Opposition wax eloquent in Parliament on the ill-effects of a prolonged state of Emergency. But their parties cannot absolve themselves of the blame for the culture of Emergency; the UNP, the SLFP and the JVP are prominent among them. There have been numerous instances where Emergency regulations were invoked in this country. In 1953, a UNP government imposed an emergency rule to restore order during a countrywide hartal. The SLFP did so in 1958 to suppress communal riots. Thereafter, the UNP used Emergency regulations to suppress a Tamil civil disobedience campaign. The SLFP and its leftist allies started the practice of extending Emergency regulations to consolidate its power after crushing the JVP’s first uprising in 1971. The situation took a turn for the worse under the UNP governments after 1977, and the country was under a state of Emergency during the Eelam war, which ended in 2009. The main Tamil political parties backed the LTTE both in and outside Parliament. In the post-war period, an anti-Muslim riot, the Easter Sunday terror attacks, the beginning of the current economic crisis, a mass uprising and natural disasters also led to the imposition of Emergency regulations.
Emergency has been more abused than used in this country. The incumbent government is now emulating the SLFP, the UNP and the coalitions led by them where all bad practices are concerned, while pontificating on the virtues of good governance.
Editorial
Govt. drops fig leaf
Saturday 11th April, 2026
The JVP-NPP government has dropped the fig leaf of good governance and defended Energy Minister Kumara Jayakody allegedly involved in a coal procurement scam, which has cost the state coffers billions of rupees and caused a huge drop in the national power supply. It went so far as to defeat a no-faith motion against him in Parliament yesterday. In 2023, the JVP/NPP vehemently condemned the then SLPP-UNP government for defending Minister Keheliya Rambukwella allegedly involved in a pharmaceutical procurement scandal. It has just done what it vilified its predecessor for.
The SLPP-UNP government at least allowed legal action to be taken against Rambukwella, who was arrested, remanded and prosecuted, but the incumbent administration has ensured that Jayakody remains above the law.
The no-faith motion was a smart move by the Opposition. It caused the government to make a mockery of its commitment to upholding the rule of law and accountability. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake himself defended his friend, Jayakody, in Parliament on Tuesday, sending a clear signal to the NPP parliamentary group; they had to vote en bloc against the no-faith motion on Friday. It is now clear that the JVP-NPP government has no qualms about defending tainted politicians.
The coal scam will not go away simply because the no-faith motion against Jayakody has been defeated. Governments abuse their parliamentary majorities to defend their members and protect their interests. Now, the Opposition will take the coal issue to the streets and flog it hard to gain political mileage. It held a demonstration near Parliament yesterday. It has got hold of something to beat the government with.
There is no way the government can prove its claim that there has been no wrongdoing on its part where the low-grade coal imports are concerned. The National Audit Office itself has pointed out serious procurement irregularities related to coal imports. Power tariffs will have to be increased again to meet the additional cost of operating oil-fired power plants to make up for the generation shortfall at Norochcholai. It has been reported that Sri Lanka’s household electricity tariffs are among the highest in South Asia, and further power tariff hikes will make the situation far worse, and Sri Lanka will have its work cut out to attract foreign investors who factor in power prices before parking their money in any investment destination. Ordinary Sri Lankans are struggling to make ends meet, and their patience is wearing thin, and this will make the task of mobilising popular support easier for the Opposition. It was people’s economic hardships and public protests that made the JVP’s meteoric rise to power possible in 2024.
Governments with supermajorities succumb to the arrogance of power and ruin things for themselves. The best way out of the current coal imbroglio would have been for the JVP-NPP government to ask Minister Jayakody to step down and let the national anti-graft commission and the police institute legal action against him. Such a course of action would have helped the government convince the public that it was serious about fulfilling its pledge to eliminate bribery and corruption and send a clear message to the corrupt elements in its ranks that they would not be protected.
The JVP/NPP is now without any moral right to be critical of former Presidents who defended their cronies involved in corrupt deals. A fish is said to rot from the head down.
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