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Technical Overview of Online Safety Act

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Eng. Rohana Palliyaguru
Former Chief Operating Officer,
Sri Lanka Computer Emergency Readiness Team

In 2018, “EUROPOL” headquartered in Hague, Netherlands, a key organization established to prevent and combat serious internationally organized crimes, cybercrime and terrorism, had clearly defined the difference between cyber-dependent crimes and cyber-enabled crimes . As defined by them, any crime that can only be committed using computers, computer networks or other forms of information communication technology was named as cyber-dependent crimes and traditional crimes facilitated by the Internet and digital technology were categorized as cyber-enabled crimes. So, there are two categories of cybercrimes and these definitions are internally accepted.

Illicit intrusion and hacking into computer networks, disruption of computer functionality with the spread of viruses or other malware and Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks which can paralyze service delivery by computers are some examples for cyber-dependent crimes.

Some Cyber-enabled crimes are child sexual exploitation, fraud/scams,blackmail, extortion etc.

In the Sri Lankan context, Computer Crime Act No. 24 of 2007 has already provided necessary legislative provisions for tackling most of the cyber-dependent crimes.

Issues related to content such as defamation, harassment, misinformation, impersonation occur not only through online means but also through the use of other traditional means (electronic or print media). Hence, such things fall under cyber-enabled crimes. Sri Lanka has adequate laws to cobat such cyber-enabled traditional crimes. If not, the relevant legislation should be amended accordingly. It is not appropriate to make separate laws for such crimes considering only internet media, and doing so becomes very suspicious.

Hence, the objective of the Online Safety Act itself is problematic.

Also, naming the Act as Online Safety Act is also meaningless because its scope is very narrow. Otherwise it should be drafted in such a way to cover both types of cybercrimes mentioned above. But it is not so. Only provisions related to cyber-enabled crimes are mentioned in this act. These are often content related issues. Since the Act has given priority to regulating social media, I think it is appropriate to change its name to Social Media Regulation Act.

While drafting this Act, it appears that no inputs from information technology experts had been obtained as many of the provisions included are not practical. For example, provisions sought to be enforced through global Internet intermediaries are not enforceable because the Sri Lankan market is too small for them to bother about and we do not have the bargaining power necessary to ensure enforcement. This should have been pointed out by IT expert but that does not seem to have happened. If the global service providers decide to exit the Sri Lankan market due to those provisions, it will severely affect the country’s economy as well as social harmony.

This Online Security Act will have a huge impact on the freedom of expression of Sri Lankan citizens. The power to determine false/true statements and declare them as prohibited has been given to five people in a population of 21 million. These five who cannot be considered politically independent will be nominated and appointed by the President with the approval of the Constitutional Council. This will have a major impact on the independence and impartiality of the commission as the President is empowered to nominate politically biased loyalists at will. The power to remove them at any time has also been given to the President. Reasons for doing so has not bee specified in the Act itself. Affected members are only given an opportunity to state their case at a hearing and there is no appeal process.

As disqualification for appointment as a member of the commission, the Act mentions financial or other interest of such a member that may adversely impact the implementation of the commission’s functions. But there is no mention of required political independence of such members. It is essential that such a member cannot have a conflict of interest with Internet service providers, social network service providers, Internet intermediaries, but that is not mentioned here.

Although the Commission has been entrusted with wide powers and duties, there are many practical obstacles to carrying them out. It appears that the provisions have been included without adequate technical study or consultation. These practical problems will arise with implementation and the results will experience in the future.

The extent to which Internet Service Providers (ISPs) and Internet Intermediaries will comply with orders of the commission directly depends on the bargaining power we have as a country. We do not have the bargaining power of India, Japan or China. Our population of about 21 million is not a huge market that wields such influence. Also, global Internet intermediaries that provide various services have already introduced community standards to regulate the contents on their platforms which are currently in operation. Through that, they have also implemented a certain level of regulation in their platforms. It is unlikely that they will agree to carry out directives of a commission in a small country going beyond global community standards they have introduced.

ISPs only provide access to the Internet and are not concerned or responsible for its content or what users browse through the connection. It is therefore ludicrous to issue directives to the ISPs to provide opportunities to affected parties to respond to content deemed prohibited by a commission here. The ISPs have no control over such matters.

Persons making prohibited statements must be specifically identified before being notified to stop making such statements. Who is going to do that ? Also, in order to specifically identify a particular person it is essential to obtain privacy related data from the relevant social media service provider or Internet intermediary. Since every global service provider is obliged to protect the privacy of their users (via privacy policies), it is doubtful that they would override their privacy policies and provide that information to the commission.

The commission can issue notices to the Internet intermediaries to remove prohibited content from their online platform or block the content to users in Sri Lanka.But as I mentioned above, they will remove or block them only if the content is contrary to their policies. In such a case, the commission can only block the whole platform (eg: facebook) through Internet service providers in Sri Lanka. This is unfair to all users in Sri Lanka and as a result there is a danger that internet intermediaries may also withdraw from providing services to our country.

When internet intermediaries have the ability to automatically check whether some content violates their community standards through complex processes using modern technology such as artificial intelligence (AI algorithms), how far will they accept the recommendations made by the commission to remove prohibited statements?This should be thought of practically.

It has been proposed to maintain an online portal containing information to give the public an understanding of the falsity of a certain statement. This is funny because the public can get more information from lot of other independent sources and come to their own conclusions than referring to the information provided via this portal.

A team with expertise in information technology is required to carry out investigations that may be necessary for the execution of the Commission’s powers and duties. Who is going to do this? Does the Commission have a permanent internal investigation team?

It is not practical to register Global Internet Intermediaries in such a manner as may be specified by the rules made by this Act. We are a bankrupt country without enough market or bargaining power to enforce such provisions. Therefore, this provision should be reconsidered.

In order to specifically identify a person who has made a false statement, it is essential to obtain personally identifiable information (PII) from Internet intermediaries. How practical is this? As I mentioned above, will they provide the information requested by the Commission? Even if that is granted, how can the legal action be taken if the person is outside Sri Lanka? Will ISPs in overseas provide relevant data to the Commission for investigations?

Also, a fact that is true at one moment may be false at another. Even if a provocation or riot occurred on the basis of a truthful statement, it is also possible that the commission later defines it as a false statement because of the riots.

Disruption of a religious assembly by a true statement may later become a false statement because of the fact that the incident did not occur. For example, the Easter bomb attack may not happen because of a statement spread predicting it can happen on that day and disturbs religious gatherings. But since the bomb blast did not happen, later the above statement can be interpreted as a false statement justifying that it was made purposely to disturb the said religious meetings.

Outrage of religious feelings is a very sensitive matter and there should be a balance of freedom of expression and its limitations. One’s beliefs regarding a religion may be contrary to another’s and how should the right to express it be? For example, is it an insult to a religion and a false statement to declare that there is no one called God?

Cheating doesn’t just happen online. Other traditional methods are also widely used for that. Therefore, it is more appropriate to introduce a law that is common to all or to update an existing law rather than make legal provisions limited to online media.

Impersonating doesn’t just happen online either. This fraud can also be done by using fake documents. Therefore, the existing laws should have been updated to cover online methods as well.

The provisions of this Act regarding child abuse should have been made by updating other existing Acts such as the Child Protection Act, and not by highlighting them as an offenses due to the medium of the Internet. Online techniques are just one plaform through which child abuse occurs.

Although it is possible to obtain an order requiring disclosure of information relating tho those making statements using a fake online account or bot, as I have mentioned several times above, it is doubtful to what extent Internet intermediary service providers will cooperat due to their existing privacy policies. If there was an international law in this regard, this may have been easy.But we know from past experience that obtaining privacy related information through cyber security conventions is not practical.

This Act exempts ISPs from liability in case something is uploaded or interfered with by a third party. It is not necessary to say this because it is not their responsibility. As stated earlier, if those who drafted the Bill had recognized the role of Internet service providers, such a provision would not have been provided.

Global Internet Intermediary Service Providers will not take action on content unless it violates existing community standards. It is also unlikely that they will appear in our courts to resolve content related issues.

I feel that it is required to re-think whether those global Internet intermediaries agree to the various conditions stipulated in Section 29 of the Act. Internet intermediary service providers are well aware that fake online accounts and organized counterfeiting occur through their platforms. But, they have not taken drastic measures to ban them completely, often to protect freedom of expression and individual identity. They also do not hesitate to cancel such accounts if they violate their community standards. It is unlikely that they will implement the Commission’s directives to ban fake accounts.

Finally, it must be mentioned that this is not an Act introduced with the broad objective of creating security online, but one aimed at controlling content on the Internet. In the future, we can experience the impact of this on the freedom of expression of the people as well as the economy and social activism.



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Features

Counting cats, naming giants: Inside the unofficial science redefining Sri Lanka’s Leopards and Tuskers

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For decades, Sri Lanka’s leopard numbers have been debated, estimated, and contested, often based on assumptions few outside academic circles ever questioned.

One of the most fundamental was that a leopard’s spots never change. That belief, long accepted as scientific fact, began to unravel not in a laboratory or lecture hall, but through thousands of photographs taken patiently in the wilds of Yala. At the centre of that quiet disruption stands Milinda Wattegedara.

Sri Lanka’s wilderness has always inspired photographers. Far fewer, however, have transformed photography into a data-driven challenge to established conservation science. Wattegedara—an MBA graduate by training and a wildlife researcher by pursuit—has done precisely that, building one of the most comprehensive independent identification databases of leopards and tuskers in the country.

“I consider myself privileged to have been born and raised in Sri Lanka,” Wattegedara says. “This island is extraordinary in its biodiversity. But admiration alone doesn’t protect wildlife. Accuracy does.”

Raised in Kandy, and educated at Kingswood College, where he captained cricket teams, up to the First XI, Wattegedara’s early years were shaped by discipline and long hours of practice—traits that would later define his approach to field research.

Though his formal education culminated in a Master’s degree in Business Administration from Cardiff Metropolitan University, his professional life gradually shifted toward Sri Lanka’s forests, grasslands, and coastal fringes.

From childhood, two species held his attention: the Sri Lankan leopard and the Asian elephant tusker. Both are icons. Both are elusive. And both, he argues, have been inadequately understood.

His response was methodical. Using high-resolution photography, Wattegedara began documenting individual animals, focusing on repeat sightings, behavioural traits, territorial ranges, and physical markers.

This effort formalised into two platforms—Yala Leopard Diary and Wild Tuskers of Sri Lanka—which function today as tightly moderated research communities rather than casual social media pages.

“My goal was never popularity,” he explains. “It was reliability. Every identification had to stand scrutiny.”

The results are difficult to dismiss. Through collaborative verification and long-term monitoring, his teams have identified over 200 individual leopards across Yala and Kumana National Parks and 280 tuskers across Sri Lanka.

Each animal—whether Jessica YF52 patrolling Mahaseelawa beach or Mahasen T037, the longest tusker bearer recorded in the wild—is catalogued with photographic evidence and movement history.

It was within this growing body of data that a critical inconsistency emerged.

“As injuries accumulated over time, we noticed subtle but consistent changes in rosette and spot patterns,” Wattegedara says. “This directly contradicted the assumption that these markings remain unchanged for life.”

That observation, later corroborated through structured analysis, had serious implications. If leopards were being identified using a limited set of spot references, population estimates risked duplication and inflation.

The findings led to the development of the Multipoint Leopard Identification Method, now internationally published, which uses multiple reference points rather than fixed pattern assumptions. “This wasn’t about academic debate,” Wattegedara notes. “It was about ensuring we weren’t miscounting an endangered species.”

The implications extend beyond Sri Lanka. Overestimated populations can lead to reduced protection, misplaced policy decisions, and weakened conservation urgency.

Yet much of this work has occurred outside formal state institutions.

“There’s a misconception that meaningful research only comes from official channels,” Wattegedara says. “But conservation gaps don’t wait for bureaucracy.”

That philosophy informed his role as co-founder of the Yala Leopard Centre, the world’s first facility dedicated solely to leopard education and identification. The Centre serves as a bridge between researchers, wildlife enthusiasts, and the general public, offering access to verified knowledge rather than speculation.

In a further step toward transparency, Artificial Intelligence has been introduced for automatic leopard identification, freely accessible via the Centre and the Yala Leopard Diary website. “Technology allows consistency,” he explains. “And consistency is everything in long-term studies.”

His work with tuskers mirrors the same precision. From Minneriya to Galgamuwa, Udawalawe to Kala Wewa, Wattegedara has documented generations of bull elephants—Arjuna T008, Kawanthissa T075, Aravinda T112—not merely as photographic subjects, but as individuals with lineage, temperament, and territory.

This depth of observation has also earned him recognition in wildlife photography, including top honours from the Photographic Society of Sri Lanka and accolades from Sanctuary Asia’s Call of the Wild. Still, he is quick to downplay awards.

“Photographs are only valuable if they contribute to understanding,” he says.

Today, Wattegedara’s co-authored identification guides on Yala leopards and Kala Wewa tuskers are increasingly referenced by researchers and field naturalists alike. His work challenges a long-standing divide between citizen science and formal research.

“Wildlife doesn’t care who publishes first,” he reflects. “It only responds to how accurately we observe it.”

In an era when Sri Lanka’s protected areas face mounting pressure—from tourism, infrastructure, and climate stress—the question of who counts wildlife, and how, has never been more urgent.

By insisting on precision, patience, and proof, Milinda Wattegedara has quietly reframed that conversation—one leopard, one tusker, and one verified photograph at a time.

By Ifham Nizam ✍️

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AI in Schools: Preparing the Nation for the Next Technological Leap

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This summary document is based on an exemplary webinar conducted by the Bandaranaike Academy for Leadership & Public Policy ((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqZGjlaMC08). I participated in the session, which featured multiple speakers with exceptional knowledge and experience who discussed various aspects of incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into the education system and other sectors.

There was strong consensus that this issue must be addressed early, before the nation becomes vulnerable to external actors seeking to exploit AI for their own advantage. Given her educational background, the Education Minister—and the Prime Minister—are likely to be fully aware of this need. This article is intended to support ongoing efforts in educational reform, including the introduction of AI education in schools for those institutions willing to adopt it.

Artificial intelligence is no longer a futuristic concept. Today, it processes vast amounts of global data and makes calculated decisions, often to the benefit of its creators. However, most users remain unaware of the information AI gathers or the extent of its influence on decision-making. Experts warn that without informed and responsible use, nations risk becoming increasingly vulnerable to external forces that may exploit AI.

The Need for Immediate Action

AI is evolving rapidly, leaving traditional educational models struggling to keep pace. By the time new curricula are finalised, they risk becoming outdated, leaving both students and teachers behind. Experts advocate immediate government-led initiatives, including pilot AI education programs in willing schools and nationwide teacher training.

“AI is already with us,” experts note. “We must ensure our nation is on this ‘AI bus’—unlike past technological revolutions, such as IT, microchips, and nanotechnology, which we were slow to embrace.”

Training Teachers and Students

Equipping teachers to introduce AI, at least at the secondary school level, is a crucial first step. AI can enhance creativity, summarise materials, generate lesson plans, provide personalised learning experiences, and even support administrative tasks. Our neighbouring country, India, has already begun this process.

Current data show that student use of AI far exceeds that of instructors—a gap that must be addressed to prevent misuse and educational malpractice. Specialists recommend piloting AI courses as electives, gathering feedback, and continuously refining the curriculum to prepare students for an AI-driven future.

Benefits of AI in Education

AI in schools offers numerous advantages:

· Fosters critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills

· Enhances digital literacy and ethical awareness

· Bridges the digital divide by promoting equitable AI literacy

· Supports interdisciplinary learning in medicine, climate science, and linguistics

· Provides personalised feedback and learning experiences

· Assists students with disabilities through adaptive technologies like text-to-speech and visual recognition

AI can also automate administrative tasks, freeing teachers to focus on student engagement and social-emotional development—a key factor in academic success.

Risks and Challenges

Despite its potential, AI presents challenges:

· Data privacy concerns and misuse of personal information

· Over-reliance on technology, reducing teacher-student interactions

· Algorithmic biases affecting educational outcomes

· Increased opportunities for academic dishonesty if assessments rely on rote memorisation

Experts emphasise understanding these risks to ensure the responsible and ethical use of AI.

Global and Local Perspectives

In India, the Central Board of Secondary Education plans to introduce AI and computational thinking from Grades 3 to 12 by 2026. Sri Lanka faces a similar challenge. Many university students and academics already rely on AI, highlighting the urgent need for a structured yet rapidly evolving national curriculum that incorporates AI responsibly.

The Way Forward

Experts urge swift action:

· Launch pilot programs in select schools immediately.

· Provide teacher training and seed funding to participating educational institutions.

· Engage universities to develop short AI and innovation training programs.

“Waiting for others to lead risks leaving us behind,” experts warn. “It’s time to embrace AI thoughtfully, responsibly, and inclusively—ensuring the whole nation benefits from its opportunities.”

As AI reshapes our world, introducing it in schools is not merely an educational initiative—it is a national imperative.

BY Chula Goonasekera ✍️
on behalf of LEADS forum admin@srilankaleads.com

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The Paradox of Trump Power: Contested Authoritarian at Home, Uncontested Bully Abroad

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Protests and a vigil have been held in Minneapolis, Minnesota, where the shooting of Renee Nicole Good occurred on Wednesday (photo courtesy BBC)

The Trump paradox is easily explained at one level. The US President unleashes American superpower and tariff power abroad with impunity and without contestation. But he cannot exercise unconstitutional executive power including tariff power without checks and challenges within America. No American President after World War II has exercised his authority overseas so brazenly and without any congressional referral as Donald Trump is getting accustomed to doing now. And no American President in history has benefited from a pliant Congress and an equally pliant Supreme Court as has Donald Trump in his second term as president.

Yet he is not having his way in his own country the way he is bullying around the world. People are out on the streets protesting against the wannabe king. This week’s killing of 37 year old Renee Good by immigration agents in Minneapolis has brought the City to its edge five years after the police killing of George Floyd. The lower courts are checking the president relentlessly in spite of the Supreme Court, if not in defiance of it. There are cracks in the Trump’s MAGA world, disillusioned by his neglect of the economy and his costly distractions overseas. His ratings are slowly but surely falling. And in an electoral harbinger, New York has elected as its new mayor, Zoran Mamdani – a wholesale antithesis of Donald Trump you can ever find.

Outside America it is a different picture. The world is too divided and too cautious to stand up to Trump as he recklessly dismantles the very world order that his predecessors have been assiduously imposing on the world for nearly a hundred years. A few recent events dramatically illustrate the Trump paradox – his constraints at home and his freewheeling abroad.

Restive America

Two days before Christmas, the US Supreme Court delivered a rare rebuke to the Trump Administration. After a host of rulings that favoured Trump by putting on hold, without full hearing, lower court strictures against the Administration, the Supreme Court by a 6-3 majority decided to leave in place a Federal Court ruling that barred Trump from deploying National Guard troops in Chicago. Trump quietly raised the white flag and before Christmas withdrew the federal troops he had controversially deployed in Chicago, Portland and Los Angeles – all large cities run by Democrats.

But three days after the New Year, Trump airlifted the might of the US Army to encircle Venezuela’s capital Caracas and spirit away the country’s President Nicolás Maduro, and his wife Celia Flores, all the way to New York to stand trial in an American Court. What is not permissible in any American City was carried out with absolute impunity in a foreign capital. It turns out the Administration has no plan for Venezuela after taking out Maduro, other than Trump’s cavalier assertion, “We’re going to run it, essentially.” Essentially, the Trump Administration has let Maduro’s regime without Maduro to run the country but with the US in total control of Venezuela’s oil.

Next on the brazen list is Greenland, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio who manipulated Maduro’s ouster is off to Copenhagen for discussions with the Danish government over the future of Greenland, a semi-autonomous part of Denmark. Military option is not off the table if a simple real estate purchase or a treaty arrangement were to prove infeasible or too complicated. That is the American position as it is now customarily announced from the White House podium by the Administration’s Press Secretary Karolyn Leavitt, a 28 year old Catholic woman from New Hampshire, who reportedly conducts a team prayer for divine help before appearing at the lectern to lecture.

After the Supreme Court ruling and the Venezuela adventure, the third US development relevant to my argument is the shooting and killing of a 37 year old white American woman by a US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer in Minneapolis, at 9:30 in the morning, Wednesday, January 7th. Immediately, the Administration went into pre-emptive attack mode calling the victim a “deranged leftist” and a “domestic terrorist,” and asserting that the ICE officer was acting in self-defense. That line and the description are contrary to what many people know of the victim, as well as what people saw and captured on their phones and cameras.

The victim, Renee Nicole Good, was a mother of three and a prize-winning poet who self-described herself a “poet, writer, wife and mom.” A newcomer to Minneapolis from Colorado, she was active in the community and was a designated “legal observer of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities,” to monitor interactions between ICE agents and civilian protesters that have become the norm in large immigrant cities in America. Renee Good was at the scene in her vehicle to observe ICE operations and community protesters.

In video postings that last a matter of nine seconds, two ICE officers are seen approaching Good’s vehicle and one of them trying to open her door; a bystander is heard screaming “No” as Good is seen trying to drive away; and a third ICE officer is seen standing in front of her moving vehicle, firing twice in the direction of the driver, moving to a side and firing a third time from the side. Good’s car is seen going out of control, careening and coming to a stop on a snowbank. Yet America is being bombarded with two irreconcilable narratives – one manufactured by Trump’s Administration and the other by those at the scene and everyone opposed to the regime.

It adds to the explosiveness of the situation that Good was shot and killed not far from where George Folyd was killed, also in Minneapolis, on 25th May, 2020, choked under the knee of a heartless policeman. And within 48 hours of Good’s killing, two Americans were shot and injured by two federal immigration agents, in Portland, Oregon, on the Westcoast. Trump’s attack on immigrants and the highhanded methods used by ICE agents have become the biggest flashpoint in the political opposition to the Trump presidency. People are organizing protests in places where ICE agents are apprehending immigrants because those who are being aggressively and violently apprehended have long been neighbours, colleagues, small business owners and students in their communities.

Deportation of illegal immigrants is not something that began under Trump. It has been going on in large numbers under all recent presidents including Obama and Biden. But it has never been so cruel and vicious as it is now under Trump. He has turned it into a television spectacle and hired large number of new ICE agents who are politically prejudiced and deployed them without proper training. They raid private homes and public buildings, including schools, looking for immigrants. When faced with protesters they get into clashes rather than deescalating the situation as professional police are trained to do. There is also the fear that the Administration may want to escalate confrontations with protesters to create a pretext for declaring martial law and disrupt the midterm congressional elections in November this year.

But the momentum that Trump was enjoying when he began his second term and started imposing his executive authority, has all but vanished and all within just one year in office. By the time this piece appears in print, the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs (expected on Friday) may be out, and if as expected the ruling goes against Trump that will be a massive body blow to the Administration. Trump will of course use a negative court ruling as the reason for all the economic woes under his presidency, but by then even more Americans would have become tired of his perpetually recycled lies and boasts.

An Obliging World

To get back to my starting argument, it is in this increasingly hostile domestic backdrop that Trump has started looking abroad to assert his power without facing any resistance. And the world is obliging. The western leaders in Europe, Canada and Australia are like the three wise monkeys who will see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil – of anything that Trump does or fails to do. Their biggest fear is about the Trump tariffs – that if they say anything critical of Trump he will magnify the tariffs against their exports to the US. That is an understandable concern and it would be interesting to see if anything will change if the US Supreme Court were to rule against Trump and reject his tariff powers.

Outside the West, and with the exception of China, there is no other country that can stand up to Trump’s bullying and erratic wielding of power. They are also not in a position to oppose Trump and face increased tariffs on their exports to the US. Putin is in his own space and appears to be assured that Trump will not hurt him for whatever reason – and there are many of them, real and speculative. The case of the Latin American countries is different as they are part of the Western Hemisphere, where Trump believes he is monarch of all he surveys.

After more than a hundred years of despising America, many communities, not just regimes, in the region seem to be warming up to Trump. The timing of Trump’s sequestering of Venezuela is coinciding with a rising right wing wave and regime change in the region. An October opinion poll showed 53% of Latin American respondents reacting positively to a then potential US intervention in Venezuela while only 18% of US respondents were in favour of intervention. While there were condemnations by Latin American left leaders, seven Latin American countries with right wing governments gave full throated support to Trump’s ouster of Maduro.

The reasons are not difficult to see. The spread of crime induced by the commerce of cocaine has become the number one concern for most Latin Americans. The socio-religious backdrop to this is the evangelisation of Christianity at the expense of the traditional Catholic Church throughout Latin America. And taking a leaf from Trump, Latin Americans have also embraced the bogey of immigration, mainly influenced by the influx of Venezuelans fleeing in large numbers to escape the horrors of the Maduro regime.

But the current changes in Latin America are not necessarily indicative of a durable ideological shift. The traditional left’s base in the subcontinent is still robust and the recent regime changes are perhaps more due to incumbency fatigue than shifts in political orientations. The left has been in power for the greater part of this century and has not been able to provide answers to the real questions that preoccupied the people – economic affordability, crime and cocaine. It has not been electorally smart for the left to ignore the basic questions of the people and focus on grand projects for the intelligentsia. Exhibit #1 is the grand constitutional project in Chile under outgoing President Gabriel Borich, but it is not the only one. More romantic than realistic, Boric’s project titillated liberal constitutionalists the world over, but was roundly rejected by Chileans.

More importantly, and sooner than later, Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and his intended takeover of the country’s oil business will produce lasting backlashes, once the initial right wing euphoria starts subsiding. Apart from the bully force of Trump’s personality, the mastermind behind the intervention in Venezuela and policy approach towards Latin America in general, is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the former Cuban American Senator from Florida and the principal leader of the group of Cuban neocons in the US. His ultimate objective is said to be achieving regime change in Cuba – apparently a psychological settling of scores on behalf Cuban Americans who have been dead set against Castro’s Cuba after the overthrow of their beloved Batista.

Mr. Rubio is American born and his parents had left Cuba years before Fidel Castro displaced Fulgencio Batista, but the family stories he apparently grew up hearing in Florida have been a large part of his self-acknowledged political makeup. Even so, Secretary Rubio could never have foreseen a situation such as an externally uncontested Trump presidency in which he would be able to play an exceptionally influential role in shaping American policy for Latin America. But as the old Burns’ poem rhymes, “The best-laid plans of men and mice often go awry.”

by Rajan Philips ✍️

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