Features
Taiwan: Nancy Pelosi’s Last Hurrah
Hence China’s growing confidence, and Taiwan’s belated anxiety (an $8 billion boost to defence spending last January), and President Joe Biden’s attempts to reassure Taiwan by making impromptu declarations that the US would indeed fight for Taiwan (which are promptly walked back by Biden’s staff).But the reality is clear from Biden’s ultra-cautious response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine – slow and selective arms deliveries, no NATO troops on the ground, not even a ‘no-fly’ zone over Ukraine. He’s being very careful and measured because he doesn’t want a nuclear war.
By Gwynne Dyer
Nancy Pelosi’s brief visit to Taiwan this week caused great if somewhat confected anger in Beijing, but the Chinese Communist regime was not her main target. The Speaker of the House of Representatives has long supported Taiwan, and she will be aware that both the government and the people are in need of some reassurance at the moment.
The likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is rising, and the prospect of direct US military support in that event is falling. Both trends are driven by the shifting strategic balance in the Western Pacific, where China is approaching the status of ‘near-peer adversary’, able to challenge US naval and air operations around Taiwan with some prospect of success.
Pelosi is not a military strategist, but she cannot have failed to notice the changing tone of the military briefings she gets on the subject from the US Navy and Air Force. They can no longer guarantee that they would prevail in a war fought 12,000 km. from home to thwart a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.The official US strategy remains ‘strategic ambiguity’: it won’t say whether or not it would actually fight China to protect Taiwan.
This used to be just a device to get around the awkward contradiction between recognising the Communist regime in Beijing and protecting the separate existence of the island state of Taiwan – but everybody assumed that the US would fight for that if necessary.Now strategic ambiguity is mostly a way to disguise the fact that Washington would probably not intervene directly to stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
China has accumulated so many ballistic and cruise missiles along its east coast that the US Navy is reluctant to risk its carriers in those waters in wartime, and only one air base within range of Taiwan is available for USAF strike aircraft.
Beyond these tactical and operational considerations, there is the immense strategic fact that neither China nor the United States wants to risk a nuclear war. However, China might be able to conquer Taiwan without resorting to nuclear weapons.
Hence China’s growing confidence, and Taiwan’s belated anxiety (an $8 billion boost to defence spending last January), and President Joe Biden’s attempts to reassure Taiwan by making impromptu declarations that the US would indeed fight for Taiwan (which are promptly walked back by Biden’s staff).
But the reality is clear from Biden’s ultra-cautious response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine – slow and selective arms deliveries, no NATO troops on the ground, not even a ‘no-fly’ zone over Ukraine. He’s being very careful and measured because he doesn’t want a nuclear war.
So, if he’s that cautious with Russia, how careful would he be if Taiwan is invaded by China, a country with ten times Russia’s population and twenty times its wealth? Well, if the Taiwanese are still standing after three weeks, and the Chinese military turn out to be another paper tiger, maybe then he’d send help.The long-standing American policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ has lost credibility as a deterrent, and Taiwan is really on its own now. This doesn’t mean that it is doomed, but its free ride is over.
Taiwan is an island 180 km. from China, which means that it could theoretically defend itself from anything except Chinese nuclear weapons. (Beijing is unlikely to use nukes on fellow Chinese people.)Getting Chinese troops onto the island in sufficient numbers by seaborne landings and air-drops would be a military operation fraught with risk, and fully prepared Taiwanese armed forces could conceivably defeat it. However, they are not remotely prepared for that now.
Taiwan’s defence-related spending has fallen gradually from a peak of more than 7% of GDP in the late 1970s to only 1.9% last year, and obligatory military service has been cut to only four months.As cold reality dawned in Taiwan in the past year, that long decline has gone into reverse, but it would take half a dozen years of defence spending at 5% or 6% of GDP to acquire the weapons and capabilities that might enable the country to defend itself without help.
It’s unlikely that this is the message Nancy Pelosi brought to Taiwan; she just wants to show solidarity with their struggle to remain free. Biden even thought her visit was poorly timed, given Xi’s impending coronation as dictator-for-life at the October congress of the Chinese Communist Party. It wouldn’t do to spoil his party.
But other American officials have doubtless been breaking the bad news to the Taiwanese government as gently as possible. The next five years will be very tricky even if President Tsai Ing-wen’s administration goes into overdrive on defence.
Features
The challenge of keeping value-based politics alive
The current outbreak of anti-immigrant protests in Durban, South Africa is bound to have taken many a subscriber to value-based politics or political idealism quite by surprise. After all, this is evidence that despite the historic accomplishments of nation-builders of the stature of the late President Nelson Mandela it cannot be taken for granted that identity politics, including racism in its worst forms, is no more in South Africa.
At the time of this writing details are scarce on the substantive root causes of the protests but it could very well be that economic grievances, particularly on the part of the majority community in South Africa, are contributing considerably to the disaffection. Shrinking employment and material prospects are likely to figure majorly among the factors igniting the unrest.
Fortunately, the local authorities in Durban are losing no time in calling for peaceful co-existence among the relevant communities and are pointing to the vital importance of stepping-up national integration processes. Apparently, immigrants in sizable numbers from neighbouring countries are present in Durban. However, international TV footage of the protests quoted some local authorities as saying that the majority of the immigrants in some centres that housed them were not illegal migrants and had the documents that entitle them to be in Durban.
In the Durban protests the world has fresh proof of the socially divisive consequences of the gathering globe-wide economic disaffection, touched off particularly by the continuing crisis in West Asia. Going ahead, the world would need to brace for increasing identity-based unrest of the kind it is just witnessing in South Africa.
Considering that the material lot of ordinary people everywhere could only aggravate progressively, with the US and Iran showing no signs of negotiating an end to their confrontation any time soon, it will be left to the more democratic and progressive sections of the world community to initiate positive measures collectively to bring a measure of relief to the discontented.
The swiftness with which such relief will be provided would depend crucially on the importance those sections taking up these undertakings attach to value-based politics as opposed to Realpolitik of power politics.
Going by these yardsticks, Italy could be considered to be moving in the right direction. Recently Italy came to the fore in initiating the collective named, ‘Rome Coalition for Food Security and Access to Fertilizer’, which has as one of its aims the swift provision of fertilizer to economically weak African countries.
In a recent statement Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Antonio Tajani, said that a principal aim of the project was to ensure that the farmers of Africa gained easy access to fertilizer, considering that food security is a growing concern among some of Africa’s economically vulnerable countries.
The statement went on to mention that some 30 countries hailing from the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, the Balkans as well as the FAO had been invited to join the coalition. The venture is far-seeing in that food security is main among the reasons for social discontent which in turn could degenerate into endemic political turmoil and bloodshed. Separatist violence and geographical fragmentation of countries wouldn’t be too far behind these developments, as Africa itself has often proved.
It is hoped that more G7 countries would take the cue from Italy and do what they could to ease the hardships of economically distressed countries, particularly of the global South. In these efforts they would need to break rank with the US, which is today brutally indifferent to the consequences of its policy of making ‘America First’, come what may.
Going by current developments, the Trump administration seems to be blithely oblivious to the wider, deleterious effects of its policy course in West Asia. Besides rendering Iran militarily and otherwise impotent nothing else seems to matter to Washington, as regards West Asia. This is policy short-sightedness of an extreme kind. After all, right now West Asia could be said to be sitting on the proverbial powder keg.
On the other hand, Iran is not giving the world the impression that it is doing anything constructive to get out of the policy straitjacket that it wove for itself decades ago. Rather than enter into a policy of ‘live and let live’ in relation to Israel in particular and initiate a process of reconciliation with the latter, it has chosen to operate within policy parameters that continue to damn Israel. This has put Israel always on the ‘defensive’ so to speak and prevented the opening up of space for meaningful dialogue.
That said, Israel is obliged to explore the possibilities of entering into a negotiatory process with the Arab-Islamic world that could lead to a de-escalation of tensions and bloodshed. It cannot continue to look at its neighbours through lenses that distort them as archetypal enemies who should be ‘wiped off completely from the face of the earth.’
In other words, the need is urgent for Realpolitik to give way to value-based politicks. Italy is beginning to prove that the latter approach could be pursued with some success. May be the EU and the UK could throw their weight behind these initiatives as well and establish that international politics could be refashioned on the basis of humane, civilized norms. The UN would need to be fully supportive of these moves and prove an organizational nucleus of the operations that follow.
In fact the time is ripe for people of conscience to collectively stand up on the side of peace and say ‘No’ to war and violence. Organizations such as the ICRC, the WHO and Medicines Sans Frontiers have already taken up this call. Referring to the widespread destruction of health facilities and their dehumanizing results these organizations have said, among other things, that ‘This is not a failure of the law. It is a failure of political will.’
True, ‘failure of political will’ among those powers that matter accounts for the runaway, uncontrollable nature of war and destruction in contemporary times, but more fundamentally it is a failure of the human conscience. It could very well be that the phenomenal levels to which violence and war have been unleashed today have had the effect of deadening consciences. This is a matter for urgent study and wide discussion.
Features
Vesak celebrations … with Cuteefly
I would describe Indunil Kaushalya Dissanayaka as innovative and creative, and she operates under the name of Cuteefly.
Indunil always comes up with something novel to celebrate special occasions, and she does it with candles … and that’s her profession.
She was in the spotlight when she created a happening scene, with candles, for Christmas, Sinhala and Tamil New Year, and Valentine’s Day.
As lanterns light up Sri Lanka for Vesak, the Colombo-based candle maker is quietly turning wax and wick into little pieces of the festival.

Candles reflecting Vesak themes
Her candles reflect Vesak themes – light, peace, remembrance, giving, etc., to enable you to fill your Vesak celebration with devotion and beauty.
Among her Vesak creations is a lotus-shaped soy candle, scented with sandalwood, lavender, etc., meant to burn during this Vesak Poya Day.

Indunil Kaushalya Dissanayaka: Customers
praise her for her creativity
These handcrafted Vesak candles are perfect for offering at the temple, she says.
What makes her creations so novel is that they come in different shapes, scents, themes, and all are handmade.
What’s more, her customers have heaped praise on her for her creativity.
According to Indunil, her creations are perfect as a thoughtful gift … to bring beauty, unity, and light into every moment.
Says Indunil: “Our beautifully handcrafted Unity candles are designed with premium detail and love, making them perfect for celebrations, gifts, and meaningful occasions.”
Cuteefly, says Indunil, is available online.
Readers could contact Indunil on 0778506066 for more details.
He Facebook Page is: Cuteefly.

Handmade with love
Features
Dark Spots …
Yes, dark spots do crop up on the skin, especially with sun exposure and, of course, as the skin ages.
However, these tips should be of immense benefit to those who are faced with dark spots.
* Lemon and Honey Glow Mask:
You will need 01 teaspoon lemon juice and 01 teaspoon honey.
Mix the lemon juice and honey well and then apply this mixture, only on the dark spots.
Leave for 10–15 minutes and then rinse with cool water.
Benefits:
Lemon helps brighten pigmentation.
Honey moisturises and heals skin.
Gives a natural glow.
* Aloe Vera Gel Treatment:
All you need is fresh aloe vera gel.
Apply the gel apply on dark spots, before going to bed.
Leave overnight and wash in the morning.
Benefits:
Reduces acne marks and pigmentation.
Soothes irritated skin.
Helps skin repair naturally.
* Turmeric and Yoghurt Paste:
You will need 01 teaspoon yoghurt and a pinch of turmeric
Mix the yoghurt and turmeric into a smooth paste and apply on affected areas.
Leave for 15 minutes and then wash gently with lukewarm water.
Benefits:
Turmeric brightens skin naturally.
Yoghurt removes dead skin cells.
Helps fade dark spots gradually.
Use these packs 02-03 times a week as results are generally seen over time.
You can also try this out: Mix a ripe papaya into a smooth paste and apply to the face, or directly on to the dark spots. Leave for 15-20 minutes and then wash with lukewarm water.
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