Business
Sri Lanka’s Runaway Inflation and the Limits of Monetary Policy
by Dr Dushni Weerakoon
The bad news on inflation keeps coming. As of June 2022, year-on-year (YOY) inflation nationally is estimated at an all-time high of 59%. Annual inflation is lagging significantly behind at around 21%, indicative of the speed at which price inflation has been spiralling in recent months. This is in sharp contrast to Sri Lanka’s previous bout of high inflation in 2008 where the YOY increase was far more gradual (Figure 1). Then too, a similar combination of factors was at play. On the external front, a global financial crisis, a spike in international oil prices and sky-rocketing food prices prevailed. On the domestic front, a depressingly familiar combination of unsustainable fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were in place.
This time around too, the inflation bout was triggered by a series of macroeconomic policy blunders in managing the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic; an untenable red hole in public finances, a massive injection of liquidity within a short time span, and an improbable exchange rate policy combined to bring about Sri Lanka’s harshest economic collapse. The inflation ‘pass through’ from the more than 80% currency depreciation that followed amplified the global price increases in food and fuel. The ban on chemical fertiliser use, import controls on food and high costs of transport added to the shortages, driving up prices further.
While Sri Lanka is still well below the commonly used threshold for hyperinflation (monthly inflation exceeding 50%) the rampant inflation this time around is consistent with a serious crisis of confidence across the economy. Monetary policy – i.e. raising interest rates – is the most appropriate tool at hand to fight inflation, but there are limits to its efficacy.
Today, inflationary pressures have intensified the world over with countries like the US and the UK seeing inflation rates hit 40-year highs. Unlike Sri Lanka, the inflation trigger in many of these economies was set off by buoyant demand and tight labour markets as countries emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Russian invasion of Ukraine that followed went on to fuel energy and food price increases and add to supply bottlenecks – already battling a combination of challenges including a resurgence of COVID-19 in China. Almost everywhere, central banks embarked on a monetary policy tightening cycle, with New Zealand and South Korea starting early and aggressively. The intention is to anchor inflation expectations and cut off more persistent strength in nominal wage growth. Thus, the upswing in inflation and interest rate cycles point to a downswing in growth globally in 2022.


Having kept monetary policy too loose for too long, Sri Lanka started its tightening cycle in August 2021, albeit with timid steps – raising policy interest rates by a total of 200 basis points up to March 2022 even as inflation breached double-digit figures in November 2021. This was followed by an aggressive 700 basis point hike in April 2022. It signalled firm intentions to regain the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) focus on price stability by engineering a reduction in demand through high interest rates and withdrawing liquidity from the economy. Effectively, in the current dire growth outlook for Sri Lanka, the policy intention means forcing a recession to tame inflation.
In choosing between the options of an aggressive hike that will lead to a recession or tolerating a prolonged inflationary spiral bordering on hyperinflation, the former is preferable. Once inflation takes hold, the damage can be corrosive, especially its deeply regressive impacts on lower income households. But a contractionary strategy to suppress demand will not achieve the desired outcomes if (a) inflation expectations are not well anchored and people expect rapid price increases to continue, and (b) supply side factors remain unaddressed.
A sector-wise breakdown of the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) and the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) of YOY inflation in June 2022 shows that demand-driven domestic inflationary pressures appear to be responsible for much less of the rise in headline inflation. Food price increases are contributing the largest share of 36% towards the YOY national increase in inflation in the NCPI (carrying a weight of 44%) while it contributes a similarly large share of 26% in the CCPI (with a weight of 28%). Transport is the second largest contributor (8-11%) in both indices. Overall, the strength of inflation appears to mainly reflect the large increases in energy and food prices; in fact, when inflation is driven largely by excess liquidity and demand, price increases across goods and services tend to be more uniform.
With runaway inflation, tightening monetary policy hard and fast was almost inevitable to anchor inflation expectations. The policy will work though only if fiscal adjustments evolve in line with monetary policy. Sharp interest rate increases make government debt even more expensive to service, and when interest rates exceed economic growth, a country’s indebtedness keeps rising. Higher interest rates in the current context of a crisis of confidence overall in the economy, and especially on exchange rate risks, means that it will not be reflected in stronger capital inflows to stabilise the rupee either.
Upward pressure on inflation in Sri Lanka will not dissipate immediately. Continued direct financing of Treasury spending by the CBSL, high global energy and food prices, and continuing domestic supply-side factors – food and fuel shortages, import policies, and related market distortions – will add to price increases. Thus, the current upswing in real interest rates will likely go further if it appears that the policy mix is unable to reverse the inflation trend.
At this crucial juncture, prompt action on all macroeconomic policy fronts simultaneously is essential to help the CBSL put price stability at the core of Sri Lanka’s monetary policy framework and better anchor inflation expectations. If workers and businesses are unconvinced that runaway inflation is firmly in check, higher price expectations will feed back into the process, making the fight against inflation even harder. It will also delay the recovery from recessionary conditions – through cuts in investments and shortening of investment horizons that ultimately hurt employment and jobs – as the country looks to ease back from the current economic crisis.
Link to the blog – https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2022/07/27/sri-lankas-runaway-inflation-and-the-limits-of-monetary-policy/
Business
Cargills Kist transforms wartime battlefield into thriving Kilinochchi agri-belt
When the doors of the Cargills Kist primary food processing plant first opened in Kilinochchi’s Ariviyal Nakaram area in 2013, there were no advertisements, public announcements, or grand promotional campaigns. Yet, stretching down the dusty road, a long, quiet queue of local residents had formed. They were war-battered northerners looking desperately for a fresh start, and among them, an overwhelming majority were young women and war widows.
On that single day, 70 women were interviewed and hired, stepping into a facility that promised the exact same salaries, perks, and allowances as the Kist plant in Colombo. Today, thirteen years after the factory first opened its doors, many of those senior employees still walk just a kilometer or two from their homes to the factory floor every morning. They stand as living monuments to a corporate intervention that chose to build futures where everything else had been flattened. Enhancing the vibrancy on the factory floor, a new generation of young employees now works closely alongside these original mentors.
Sowing Hope in Scorched Earth
When the Cargills team first arrived in Kilinochchi after the war concluded, it was a town in name only; not a single roof remained standing, shops were non-existent, and the population survived in displacement camps. A baseline survey of 2,000 locals conducted by the company revealed a profound disconnect: an entire generation had been completely separated from agriculture and lacked the know-how, seeds, or market access to restart their lives. However, they possessed one hidden, resilient asset – hardy Jaffna mango trees that had miraculously survived the crossfire.
Partnering with international agencies like USAID and IFAD, Cargills spent three grueling years navigating the absence of a proper civil administration to construct the Kilinochchi primary processing facility. They taught locals how to harvest and pack mangoes without bruising, introduced commercial passion fruit cultivation to the region, and established a reliable buyback system for the outgrowers. Today, the plant absorbs 30 to 35 tons of local fruits and vegetables daily from them -including woodapple, melon, passion fruit, and now, aloe vera – pumping direct liquidity into a community once starved of cash.

Aloe vera extraction process on Cargills Kist Factory Floor in
Kilinochchi. (Pix by Nishan S. Priyantha)
The Financial Architecture of Inclusion
With its 70-year legacy of providing nutritious, farm-fresh products to consumers, Kist’s latest project in Kilinochchi highlights how structural corporate responsibility can systematically erase regional disparities. A year ago, the company identified a rising global and local demand for aloe vera, an ingredient heavily used in beverages and personal care items that Sri Lanka was frequently forced to import. To root the supply chain locally, Cargills selected 100 stay-at-home women in Kilinochchi to pioneer commercial aloe vera cultivation. But the barriers to entry were steep: setting up a single quarter-acre required an initial capital of roughly Rs. 200,000 – an impossible sum for a low-income family. Worse, nearly 60% of smallholder farmers in Sri Lanka are blacklisted by the Credit Information Bureau (CRIB) due to past unpaid debts or a lack of physical collateral, locking them out of traditional banking ecosystems.

Female farmer cum owner
Vigneswaran Kamalanayaki at
work
To bypass this systemic gridlock, Cargills Food & Beverage Limited Managing Director Arjuna Kumarasinghe stepped forward with a corporate guarantee from the parent company, enabling Cargills Bank to issue micro-loans without demanding collateral.
Alongside technical assistance and irrigation equipment funded by the German development agency (GIZ) – a collaboration facilitated by Haridas Fernando, Group Manager of Agribusiness at Cargills Ceylon PLC – Cargills Bank rolled out mobile banking units to bring true financial inclusion directly to the doorsteps of the North.
To further insulate farmers from volatile market forces, the company integrated a dual-channel model. When market prices spike, farmers are entirely free to sell to any buyer of their choice. However, if the market crashes or surpluses build up, Cargills honours a guaranteed floor price of Rs. 90 per kilo at its processing plant, absorbing the risk and ensuring the farmer never loses.
The Rise of the Agripreneur

Arjuna
Kumarasinghe,
Managing Director,
Cargills Food &
Beverage Limited
The real-world metrics of this intervention are vividly visible in the backyards of Mankulam. Vigneswaran Kamalanayakie, a 37-year-old mother, manages a quarter-acre aloe vera plot adjacent to her home while caring for her young child. Utilising a modern “rain hose” irrigation system that waters the entire plot in just a few minutes, she has fundamentally altered her family’s financial trajectory. Even before her first formal leaf harvest, Kamalanayakie earned Rs. 50,000 simply by selling the aloe vera shoots generated by her crop. With her initial leaf harvest projected to bring in Rs. 100,000, she is entering a monthly earning cycle that scales up to an estimated Rs. 1,200,000 annually. She is already making active plans to double her plot to secure a multi-million rupee income.
Through Agronomy Extension Officers and dedicated field animators, these women are coached in crop management, pest control, and year-round continuous harvesting methods. They are no longer subsistence farmers vulnerable to the whims of middleman collectors; they have transitioned into bankable agripreneurs.
A Solid Pulp of Purpose

Haridas Fernando,
Group Manager,
Agribusiness,
Cargills Ceylon PLC
By leveraging its 14 collection centers across Sri Lanka, its main manufacturing facility in Katana, and over 500 retail outlets operating across all 25 districts, Cargills has built an incredibly resilient, closed-loop domestic supply chain.The Kilinochchi factory stands as the ultimate thesis statement for this corporate strategy.
Without beating the drums of self-adulation, Kist has blended humanity, national duty, corporate responsibility, and business ingenuity into a solid pulp.
In doing so, it has proven that the most delicious and wholesome aspect of a brand’s legacy isn’t just the product it puts on store shelves, but the dignity it restores to the people who grow it.
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
Sampath Bank recognised with three prestigious banking accolades at World Finance
Sampath Bank PLC has received three major honors at the World Finance Banking Awards 2026, being named Sri Lanka’s Best Retail Bank, Best Commercial Bank, and Best Corporate Governance – Sri Lanka. Presented by the UK-based World Finance magazine, these awards recognize excellence in performance, innovation, customer value, leadership, sustainability, and governance. This marks the 12th consecutive year that Sampath Bank has won the retail and commercial banking titles, underscoring its long-standing ability to serve individuals, businesses, and communities effectively. The new governance accolade highlights the bank’s strong commitment to transparency, accountability, ethical leadership, and responsible stewardship.
Managing Director Sanjaya Gunawardana expressed pride in the achievements, noting they reflect customer trust, employee dedication, and stakeholder confidence. He emphasized that while the retail and commercial awards recognize consistent value and innovation, the governance honor affirms the strong principles guiding the bank’s decisions. World Finance uses a rigorous evaluation process based on financial performance, innovation, customer experience, sustainability, and leadership. Sampath Bank’s governance recognition stems from robust Board oversight, proactive risk management, and a culture of responsibility. Together, these awards reinforce the bank’s mission to build a resilient, future-ready institution that contributes to Sri Lanka’s progress.
Business
People’s Bank marks its 65th anniversary
People’s Bank commemorated its 65th Anniversary on 1st July. The Bank commenced its anniversary celebrations with a special event held at People’s Tower in Colombo.
The gathering was addressed by the Chairman of People’s Bank, Prof. Narada Fernando, and the Chief Executive Officer/General Manager, Clive Fonseka. Coinciding with its 65th Anniversary celebrations, People’s Bank also launched the latest edition of the Economic Review magazine under the theme, ‘Sri Lanka’s Export Renaissance: Diversification, Innovation and Global Competitiveness’.
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