Business
Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic policy setting: Cohesion or confusion?
By Dushni Weerakoon
The hike in policy interest rates by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) in August 2021 marks a shift from stimulus to exit strategies in the pandemic era. Such recalibrations globally are focused on how to tackle the historically large debt-to-GDP ratios that the COVID-19 pandemic leaves in its wake. At end 2020, advanced economies (AEs) on average had amassed debt to the tune of 120% of their GDP with emerging markets economies (EMEs) trailing some distance at 65% of GDP. As the spotlight moves, the full impacts of the macroeconomic policy measures, hitherto obscured by the urgency to deal with the health crisis, are now coming under greater scrutiny.
Sri Lanka’s debt metrics make an orderly exit more difficult
Many countries, especially AEs, exercised their ‘monetary sovereignty’ to create and print their own money to support stimulus efforts. They have done so through coordinated monetary/fiscal policies – i.e. using monetary policy to keeping borrowing costs low while fiscal authorities provide back-stop assurance. Some are better positioned to manage the inherent risks and conflicts of interest that are involved in this exercise. AEs have an advantage as issuers of reserve currencies with global demand and historically low interest rates; EMEs with limited exposure to foreign currency-denominated debt and holding comfortable stockpiles of reserves are less exposed to disruptive tail events.
Such countries can bring down their debt ratios if they are able to maintain nominal GDP growth persistently above the average interest rates that they pay on their debt – i.e. the growth-corrected interest rate (r-g) whereby countries can run modest primary deficits and still have a stable or falling debt-to-GDP ratio.
Sri Lanka is not similarly positioned. Its debt metrics point to high vulnerabilities – a high debt-to-GDP ratio of 101% of GDP, large exposure to foreign currency-denominated debt, and a hefty foreign debt repayment schedule. Under these conditions, the threat from exercising monetary sovereignty was always self-evident. A depreciating currency, notwithstanding distortionary controls on imports and capital flows, worsens the debt vulnerabilities.
Domestic and foreign debts are hardly similar. Given Sri Lanka’s debt metrics and the fundamental economic imbalances that have generated them, simple accounting identities do not always offer very plausible solutions. If the exchange rate depreciates, it adds to the real value of outstanding debt, relative to the size of the economy, even if interest rates remain modest. Further, shocks like COVID-19 raise risk premia, and marginal borrowing costs can rise suddenly and sharply, cutting countries abruptly out of financial markets.
Crucial to instill and retain macroeconomic policy credibility
Short of distortionary measures such as inflating debt away or maintaining an overvalued currency, a primary surplus is needed to stop the public debt-to-GDP ratio from rising and an even larger surplus is needed to reduce it. Improving the primary budget balance calls for tax increases or public spending cuts that are unpopular and have upfront costs. Given the government’s unwillingness to go down this path, households and firms will be required instead to bear the cost through higher interest rates that will affect their consumption and investments.
Higher interest rates in this instance will also not ‘pull in’ foreign capital to firm up the exchange rate given the risk premia on the currency front as depreciating pressure deepens. With reserves in hand to cover barely two months of imports, the forex market will continue to face volatility and instability until a steady stream of capital inflows, beyond short-term swaps, emerge. Until such time, a depreciating domestic currency will increase the interest burden as calculated in that currency. If debt servicing interest rate costs are pushed persistently above the economic growth rate, Sri Lanka’s debt burden will grow steadily even in the absence of new borrowing – a context sometimes called a ‘debt spiral’.
Without a clearly spelt-out debt sustainability path, Sri Lanka seems to be placing all its bets on foreign direct investment (FDI) to ease external pressures and revive economic growth. For a successful outcome – i.e. productivity gains to drive long-term growth – the type of FDI matters. The more desirable is efficiency-seeking FDI, but this is also harder to attract. For now, a policy environment of import curbs and capital controls is more likely to see strategic-seeking infrastructure-led FDI. The latter runs the risk of switching resources to non-tradable sectors – reducing the availability of external financing over the longer term – and the prospect of a short-lived growth burst as before in the post-war years. Crucially too, the sole reliance on FDI leaves Sri Lanka at the mercy of developments beyond its control.
Rather, efforts to attract FDI should be coupled with building effective policy strategies that instill and maintain credibility. Indeed, this is all the more important as Sri Lanka appears to be firmly against an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. IMF loan amounts are small and it no longer has much sway on debt relief with much of EME foreign debt held by private institutional investors and China. An IMF programme is mostly useful in firming up sovereign credit ratings and reviving the sentiments of investors. But investor sentiments can also improve if governments put forward and implement credible policy strategies. By contrast, the CBSL’s policy rate adjustment to anchor expectations, for instance, will not stick if direct financing of fiscal spending is to continue under yield control measures. Instead, market convictions on the credibility of the policy mix will drive economic fundamentals. As Sri Lanka readies to transition out of pandemic-related emergency support, some notion of fiscal and debt sustainability to anchor confidence should be the priority in Budget 2022 preparations.
* This blog is based on the comprehensive chapter on “Economic Performance and Outlook: Managing the Crisis and Promoting Recovery” in IPS’ forthcoming annual flagship publication ‘Sri Lanka: The State of Economy 2021’
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Link to blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2021/08/30/sri-lankas-macroeconomic-policy-setting-cohesion-or-confusion/
Dushni Weerakoon is the Executive Director of the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) and Head of its Macroeconomic Policy research. She joined IPS in 1994 after obtaining her PhD, and has written and published widely on macroeconomic policy, regional trade integration and international economics. She has extensive experience working in policy development committees and official delegations of the Government of Sri Lanka. Dushni Weerakoon holds a BSc in Economics with First Class Honours from the Queen’s University of Belfast, U.K., and an MA and PhD in Economics from the University of Manchester, U.K.
Business
‘Tap expertise, not just capital’: A practical path for Sri Lanka’s economy
By Ifham Nizam
At a time when Sri Lanka continues to grapple with limited fiscal space and structural economic constraints, Gehan de Silva Wijeyeratne, a renowned naturalist who works in finance, is urging a shift in thinking—one that moves away from capital-heavy models and toward the strategic use of global expertise. Keeping his observations deliberately broad, de Silva Wijeyeratne frames Sri Lanka’s challenge in simple but candid terms: the country cannot afford to develop in the same way as wealthier nations, but it can still accelerate progress—if it learns how to access and use knowledge effectively.
“One of the big-picture things we need to do is improve how we find and use expertise,” he said. “If you look at countries like the United Arab Emirates and Singapore, they developed very quickly by buying in expertise and accelerating their progress. They didn’t develop everything on their own.” However, he is quick to point out the key difference. “They had the money to do it. They could afford to go out and buy expertise,” he said plainly. “But Sri Lanka doesn’t have that spending power.” This reality, de Silva Wijeyeratne notes, should not be seen purely as a limitation—but as a reason to think differently.
Sri Lanka’s economic condition makes it difficult to spend on paid foreign consultants, technical specialists, and large-scale advisory services. But according to de Silva Wijeyeratne, the global workscape has changed in ways that make expertise far more accessible than before.
He told The Island Financial Review: “We are in a world now where you can access some areas of expertise without necessarily paying for it in the traditional sense,” he said. “There are people who genuinely enjoy sharing knowledge and contributing, if you create the right work environment. We have to ensure that people who are willing to share their expertise can arrive in the country with their intentions clearly stated up-front and with an appropriate visa obtained quickly and easily so that they know that their visit is legitimate and one which is welcomed.’’
He referenced his article ‘A visa for bringing in expertise and expanding tourism’ published in The Island on Friday 23 May 2025. In this he proposes a special visa to address four strands, volunteering, internships, academic exchange and short term study. The idea is that the visa should be as easy as to obtain an online tourist visa, but the visitor can now apply for a longer term visa for a declared purpose such as volunteering. He was careful to emphasize that the proposed visa is not for paid work and does not give the visitor special rights and any relevant permits and permission need be obtained by the local partner. He suggests that Sri Lanka should begin to see itself less as a capital-constrained economy and more as a platform—one that can attract knowledge flows. “You don’t always need heavy investment upfront. You design a system that people want to engage with, and then value starts to build.” Countries like the United Arab Emirates and Singapore continue to use financial strength to import expertise. De Silva Wijeyeratne notes that Sri Lanka can use an un-paid model to attract expertise using a special visa as proposed to attract people who will be attracted to volunteer or work in Sri Lanka for free due to other reasons. In areas like biodiversity exploration and other nature-based academic work, foreign academics would love to partner with local academics if there was a simple and straightforward way for them to obtain a visa to do so and to arrive for periods for anything from 3 months to a year. As they will be on salaries paid by their academic employer overseas, it will not drain money out of Sri Lanka. On the contrary they will be long staying visitors who are bringing in money like any other tourist but additionally will also bring in knowledge. There are also many retired conservationists who are on a stable retirement income in G20 countries who would be happy to volunteer in projects in Sri Lanka. He notes that countries like India already have a visa for volunteering. “We can make Sri Lanka the go to country for people with expertise in nature who want to work in Sri Lanka on an unpaid basis because they are here to volunteer or work in partnership with local academics” he said. De Silva Wijeyeratne notes that this model will only work in sectors such as the academia or nature conservation where the day job is also a person’s passion. ‘”This will not work in every sector. We will not find a senior city person in finance, working in a voluntary role in a Sri Lankan financial institution. But in many nature-based areas of work, whether is to explore and discover new species of fungi or mosses or to train local naturalists who work in tourism, a special visa that facilitates this and can be obtained within a few minutes will enable Sri Lanka to tap into foreign expertise for free. The interaction with foreign collaborators will also open doors for Sri Lankan counterparts to be invited abroad to jointly present their work at conferences.
For Sri Lanka, the lesson is not to replicate any one model, but to adapt principles that fit its own constraints. “We need to recognise where we are and design accordingly,” he said. “We cannot copy-paste another country’s path. The proposed special visa idea which will also enable foreign interns to come to Sri Lanka for internships will also help grow the economy. For example, we have many large IT companies that develop software for companies in G20 economies. Foreign interns work in Sri Lanka will at a future date be middle or senior managers who may outsource work to Sri Lanka because they have the connections and trust the quality of work coming out of Sri Lanka. He also notes that when local companies engage with foreign interns through their universities, they may find themselves in a more structured programme which will make it easier for companies to also create places for local interns.
De Silva Wijeyeratne’s central argument is straightforward: Sri Lanka must focus on building systems that make it easy—and worthwhile—for experts to engage. “At the moment, we don’t have a clear way of connecting with global expertise,” he said. “Even when people are willing to help, there isn’t a structured mechanism to bring them in and make use of what they offer.”
He stresses that the issue is not a lack of goodwill or global interest, but a lack of organisation. “There is no shortage of people who are willing to contribute,” he said. “The problem is that we haven’t created the channels to absorb that contribution. De Silva Wijeyeratne also highlights the importance of creating a broader ecosystem where expertise translates into economic activity. “It’s not just about getting advice,” he said. “It’s about creating a market environment where that knowledge can lead to real outcomes—business opportunities, innovation, and growth.”
In his view, Sri Lanka must become more open to collaboration and more willing to act on external input. “If you create a system that works, people will come,” he said. “And when they come, they will add value.” While the idea of accessing free or low-cost expertise may sound idealistic, de Silva Wijeyeratne insists it is grounded in reality. “This is not theory,” he said. “We’ve already seen it happen in different sectors. People are willing to contribute, especially when they feel their input will make a difference.” At the same time, he acknowledges that Sri Lanka must improve its own internal capacity to benefit from such engagement.
Business
Medical camp sponsored by AAC
Automobile Association of Ceylon (AAC) sponsored an Annual Medical Camp which was organized by the Uva Wellassa Sansadaya for over 2500 people in the area of Hewana Kumbura Poorwarama Temple in Welimada, Badulla District.
35 doctors including 15 specialists from the Peradeniya & Kandy General Hospitals attended to the patients who needed assistance.
The Association was represented by Dhammika Attygalle President, P B Kulatunga Sectional Chairman Staff Welfare & Kandy Branch Office Management & Dampiya Banagala, Executive Committee Member.
It was a useful and much needed event for the people of the area and they look for this day yearly.
Business
NDB’s GSS+ bond issuance breaks new ground with record LKR. 16 Bn raised
National Development Bank PLC (NDB) commemorated raising LKR. 16 bn with its first ever issuance of BASEL III compliant GSS+ (Green, Social, Sustainable & Sustainability Linked) bonds and the country’s largest issuance of GSS+ bonds to date by way of a market opening ceremony conducted on the trading floor of the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) .
Subscriptions were opened on 10th March 2026, with an initial issuance of 120mn BASEL III compliant tier 2, listed, rated, unsecured, subordinated, redeemable GSS+ bonds with a non-viability conversion of five & seven years, at a par value of LKR 100 each. The issue was rapidly oversubscribed within the same day, allowing NDB to issue a further 40mn bonds, thus issuing a total of 16mn bonds by days end. The bonds, whose issuance was managed by NDB Investment Bank Ltd, constitutes the largest issuance of GSS+ bonds in Sri Lanka to date.
The GSS+ bonds form a part of a series of sustainability debt instruments that CSE offers with the bond issuance commemorated at the ceremony falling under the special BASEL III compliant category. NDB, which has an early entry into renewable energy funding beginning in 2004, will utilize the proceeds from the bonds to finance SMEs (Small-to-medium enterprises), women’s empowerment, and green and blue initiatives.
. Kelum Edirisinghe, Director and Chief Executive Officer of NDB, and keynote speaker at the ceremony remarked upon NDBs history, stating “NDB has long played a pioneering role in advancing environmental and social progress, as a trusted development financier to individuals, businesses, and key sectors of the Sri Lankan economy. Since our inception in 1979, we have channelled capital toward national development priorities. Today, this GSS+ bond represents the evolution of that legacy, where decades of expertise in development financing are being actively aligned with emerging sustainability imperatives and innovative capital market instruments.”
Delivering her welcome address at the event, Ms. Nilupa Perera, Chief Regulatory Officer of CSE, remarked upon NDBs success as a statement on the effectiveness of sustainable debt instruments stating: “The success of NDBs BASEL III compliant GSS+ bonds reflects investors’ interest in equitable and green investments. CSE offers listed companies an innovative means of long-term value creation through the capital market that addresses the pressing need for sustainable and equitable economic prosperity.”
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