Business

Sri Lanka’s Debt Restructuring Roadmap: Following the evidence

Published

3 years ago

2023/07/25

By Dr Dushni Weerakoon

Debt restructuring is fundamentally about allocating the associated economic costs to someone. The onus is typically on the debtor country to secure participation from its creditors, applying comparable treatment to all. As with all negotiations, the level and modalities of relief will always be subject to some degree of controversy. Sri Lanka’s recently gazetted domestic debt restructuring (DDR) exercise too has drawn expressions of both support and criticism. Overall though, negotiations have to be framed within certain desired outcomes to minimise costs to the economy. To this end, Sri Lanka’s negotiating stance dovetails neatly with crucial research evidence.

A restructuring process, whether pre-emptive or post-default, imposes significant output costs. For a debtor country to minimise these, some notable findings are:

Output losses are higher in post-default restructuring.

When defaults are accompanied by a banking crisis, the fall in output is particularly large.

Even in a post-default setting, output costs can be reduced the quicker the debtor country is able to reach an agreement with its creditors.

The size of creditor losses (haircuts) is among the best predictors of participation rates on bond restructuring.

To begin with, there was no real appetite to include a DDR in Sri Lanka’s case, especially in view of the substantial real erosion in value to debt holders as inflation spiralled. But, as opening gambits commenced with external creditors, the bondholder group’s request that ‘domestic debt is reorganised in a manner that both ensures debt sustainability and safeguards financial stability’ could not be ignored if only to avoid an impasse. Sri Lanka has limited room to circumvent a DDR altogether. As a middle-income country, the inclusion of domestic debt optimisation is implicitly encouraged in the IMF’s debt sustainability framework (DSF) for market-access countries. It focuses on the total stock of public debt but is avoided by low-income countries where the applicable DSF focuses only on external public debt.

Having opened the door to a DDR, there would have been very real concerns that the combination of skyrocketing inflation and financial fragility would test the banking sector’s resilience to deal with a DDR. Figures on capital adequacy and asset quality (with the non-performing loan ratio on stage 3 loans rising from 5.2% in 2020 to 11.3% in 2022) and exposure to restructuring the country’s international sovereign bonds (ISBs) meant the stakes were high. When times are uncertain, a herd mentality will rule, and this is to be avoided at all costs.

Another element in a DDR is that there are negative externalities that need to be internalised – i.e. there may be direct costs to a country’s financial sector from a DDR, such as recapitalisation and these have to be taken on board. This is particularly so where there is a strong link between the sovereign and its financial system. In setting aside resources to ensure financial system stability, the anticipated fiscal benefits of a DDR can potentially reduce. Thus, on both counts, ringfencing the banking sector to avert a far more damaging economic crisis and deeper output losses has been the first step in Sri Lanka’s approach.

Having left out the banking sector, the economic cost appears to have been disproportionately directed at the savings of workers contributing to pension funds. Private bondholders have been exempted denying ‘comparable treatment’ while the captive nature of the Employers Provident Fund (EPF), managed by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), means there has been no attempt to ‘secure participation’.

Sri Lanka’s DDR treatment in effect is an example of the considerable degree of influence that a sovereign can exert over domestic legal and regulatory frameworks, unlike that of an external debt restructuring (EDR). Under the terms, pension funds are required to opt for a 30% haircut or be liable for higher taxation at 30% instead of the prevailing 14%. For EPF savers, there is the only assurance of receiving a 9% return in the long-term for a fund that has often performed below par even against the simplest alternative instrument that an average saver may look at, such as one-year fixed deposits (Figure 1a). Where there has been a substantial erosion of real savings from a crisis-induced economic environment, this is scant consolation for workers. The premise of a return to single-digit inflation merely means that price increases have slowed from the previous exorbitant high levels, but the erosion of the value of savings remains very real.

The second step of the negotiating process is to bring as many of Sri Lanka’s external creditors on board as quickly as possible. Having complied with the bondholder group’s request on including a DDR, comparable treatment is being offered by way of a 30% haircut on EDR too. As a bilateral creditor, China’s preference globally is for deferral rather than reduction. But merely pushing repayments down the line with maturity extensions (and some coupon adjustments) still leaves Sri Lanka at the risk of being permanently illiquid and, therefore, vulnerable to repeat short-term crises. Clearly, the deeper the haircut, the more sustainable the debt becomes, but negotiations will likely drag on. A complex creditor group and geo-political wrangling add to these risks. Ecuador, a middle-income country, came to an agreement with its bondholders to a haircut of 9% on USD 17.4 billion in 2020, with a high 98% of bondholders agreeing to the deal. China persisted with maturity extensions and coupon adjustments.

Corralling in the bilateral creditors will require more diplomatic persuasion than economic analysis. China’s recently concluded deal with Zambia to restructure USD 4.2 billion of loans under an initiative driven by the G20 Framework for low-income countries pushed back repayments and accommodated interest rate cuts. This follows on from its deal with Ecuador a year earlier that included maturity extensions and interest rate adjustments on debts worth USD 4.4 billion. There are two key arguments put forward by China for not taking losses in debt restructurings: first, that its loans are development-oriented, tied to projects that generate revenues for the recipients, and second, that multilateral banks should also participate, instead of the current preferred status of having their loans repaid in full. In many ways, Sri Lanka will be a test case on these issues.

The expected deceleration in the contraction of Sri Lanka’s economic output in the coming months is only the start to claw back lost output. This too is under threat. As domestic consumption faltered, net exports were the only positive driver of growth in recent quarters, but there are concerning signs of a slowdown (Figure 1b). In the event, it is even more probable that the allocation of costs associated with debt negotiations will be weighed and measured against the need to get an overall deal done as quickly as possible to support Sri Lanka’s slow-burn economic recovery.

Link to blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2023/07/18/sri-lankas-debt-restructuring-roadmap-following-the-evidence/

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“RDB Drives Unprecedented Growth with Record Profits Fueling Expansion and Development Impact”

Published

1 day ago

2026/04/12

Thilina Walpola

The Regional Development Bank (RDB) delivered an exceptional financial performance for the year ended 31 December 2025, recording an 86% year-on-year increase in Profit After Tax to LKR 2.37 billion. The Bank’s total income reached LKR 42.81 billion, driven by a 23.89% growth in Net Interest Income to LKR 24.23 billion, complemented by steady contributions from both interest and fee-based income streams. This performance highlights the Bank’s ability to optimise its asset base while sustaining a well-diversified and resilient revenue profile.

Marking its 40th anniversary in 2025, the Bank’s exemplary performance underscores the strength of its resilient operating model, disciplined execution, and its growing role as a catalyst for inclusive economic progress in Sri Lanka. Profitability metrics strengthened notably, with Return on Assets (ROA) improving to 1.70% and Return on Equity (ROE) increasing to 11.77%, demonstrating enhanced efficiency in capital deployment and earnings generation.

Commenting on the Bank’s performance, Chairman Lasantha Fernando stated,

“Our performance in 2025 reflects the strength of a purpose-driven banking model that successfully balances financial sustainability with national development priorities. As Sri Lanka progresses on its path to recovery, our commitment to enabling inclusive growth remains unwavering.”

The Bank continued to expand its development-focused lending portfolio, with loans and receivables growing by 23.59% to LKR 302.54 billion. This growth supported priority sectors including agriculture, SMEs, manufacturing, housing, and rural enterprises representing segments critical to national economic revitalisation. Importantly, this expansion was achieved alongside improved asset quality, with the Stage 3 impaired loans ratio declining to 4.06% from 6.25%, demonstrating robust credit risk management and effective recovery strategies.

Customer confidence remained strong, with deposits increasing by 11.85% to LKR 283.72 billion, driven by growth in both savings and fixed deposits. The Bank also maintained liquidity ratios well above regulatory thresholds, reinforcing its financial stability and resilience

Asanga Tennakoon General Manager/Chief Executive Officer, highlighted” last year’s results underscore the impact of disciplined execution, prudent risk management, and a strong customer-centric approach. Looking ahead, we will continue to expand our reach, strengthen digital capabilities, and deepen financial inclusion to create sustainable value for all stakeholders.”

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SLIC Life and SLIC General Create New Employment Opportunities

Published

1 day ago

2026/04/12

Thilina Walpola

New Trainee Insurance Assistants receiving their appointment letters from (L-R) Nalin Subasinghe (CEO of SLICLL), Nusith Kumaratunga (Chairman of SLIC) and Dr. Sameera Dharmasena (CEO of SLICGL

Sri Lanka Insurance Life Ltd (SLICLL) and Sri Lanka Insurance General Ltd (SLICGL) together appointed 112 Trainee Insurance Assistants, marking one of the largest recruitments across both companies in recent years.

Of the total intake, 87 candidates joined SLICGL while 25 candidates were appointed to SLICLL. This recruitment reflects the continued efforts of both companies to strengthen their workforce while contributing to employment opportunities.

The recruitment process was conducted through a structured and independent evaluation framework to ensure transparency and merit-based selection. Applications were invited from eligible candidates island-wide, followed by a written examination. Candidates who met the required benchmarks were shortlisted for interviews conducted by an independent panel, reinforcing fairness and credibility throughout the process.

The newly appointed Trainee Insurance Assistants represent a diverse and capable talent pool. Approximately 30% of the recruits are graduates, while all candidates possess the required academic qualifications, including G.C.E. Ordinary Level and Advanced Level certifications, or equivalent diplomas and higher qualifications.

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Commenting on the appointments, Nusith Kumaratunga, Chairman of Sri Lanka Insurance stated, “The onboarding of this new group of Trainee Insurance Assistants reflected our continued focus on building strong and capable teams across both SLICLL and SLICGL. By maintaining a transparent and merit-based selection process, we remained committed to creating opportunities for talented individuals while strengthening the foundations for long-term organisational growth. This initiative also aligned with our broader role in supporting employment generation and contributing to the country’s economic progress.”

The official appointment ceremony was held on 7th April 2026 at the SLIC Head Office, in the presence of the Chairman and the Corporate Management of SLICLL and SLICGL, marking an important milestone in the organisations’ ongoing people development journey.

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99x Wins Five Awards at Best Management Practices Awards ‘26, Showcasing AI-led Transformation

Published

1 day ago

2026/04/12

Thilina Walpola

Team 99x winning the Overall Gold Award at the CPM Best Management Practices Awards 2026

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The recognition was awarded for 99x’s submission titled ‘Embracing AI: Rethinking Talent, Products & Services,’ which addressed one of the most pressing shifts facing the global technology services industry today. As AI continues to redefine how software is built and delivered, traditional outsourcing models are being challenged from reduced reliance on large engineering teams to a growing shift toward outcome-based delivery and faster go-to-market expectations.

Chatura De Silva, Chief AI Officer at 99x, stated, “Winning five awards at one stage is a proud moment for us as a team. While AI is driving change across the industry, what made this possible is how we chose to adapt to it. We recognised that AI is not just a layer on top of what we do, but that it changes the foundation of how value is created. This transformation was about connecting both our talent and delivery, while embedding AI across everything we do”.

Selected from over 150 award submissions, 99x was also among the top 10 organisations invited to present its journey at the CPM Management Insights Summit 2026, placing its transformation on a national stage among the country’s most forward-thinking enterprises. Chatura De Silva, Kalana Wijesekara, Chief Developer Experience Officer and Chrishan de Mel, Chief Marketing and Corporate Affairs Officer, presented 99x’s story.

Commenting on the significance of this year’s awards, Dilshan Arsakularathna, CEO of The Institute of Chartered Professional Managers of Sri Lanka, stated, “99x securing the Overall Gold Award among organisations across multiple industries reflects the level at which Sri Lanka’s IT sector is progressing today. It demonstrates how companies are building real capability and driving innovation that can confidently stand on a global stage. Notably, 99x has now become the first organisation to secure the Overall Gold Award twice across the five editions of the BMPC Awards. This remarkable achievement reflects their strong commitment to sustaining excellence and continuously embedding best management practices within their operations. What stood out with 99x was how they have adapted to change in a practical and forward-thinking manner, reshaping how they operate and deliver value, while setting a compelling benchmark for modern management practices.”